Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

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Hi there; I'm your friendly InflatablePie replacement, I'll be catching up hopefully today.

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Also, Hi to ... only ckd...

jeez, where did the rest of you all come from =\

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I love starting with a triple post:

@soras, ready2rock, TheLonging: How do you feel about how you've played this game so far?

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@TheLonging: Apparently.

Anyways, you're concerned about quoting your "role pm" that is also public knowledge and in the second post of the game?

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@

soras

, ready2rock,

TheLonging

: How do you feel about how you've played this game so far?

OH HAI Konowa! Sorry I missed you

AtE is an Appeal to Emotion. Saying stuff like "if you lynch me you're just losing a townie and a day of scumhunting" or something along those lines. You're just playing on the emotions (omg lost chance to lynch scum!) rather than defending yourself through your actions which you should be able to do as a pro-town player.

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Also, I'd like to keep TheLonging alive at least until Sora/r2r have answered my question.

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@Konowa: Raven and r2r are my top two suspects right now.

However, pman and TheLonging are two people that I keep going back and forth on; and I want to see more out of them.

Regarding your analysis of SK, being a lone member a lot of standard tells are rendered useless (no buddies, etc..) while others are just as valid. SK's aren't likely to be caught by votecounts since they're actively scumhunting (and know that scum is out there) while sk tells are also mafia tells (I won't get into this, but the last time I thought somebody was SK he ended up just being mafia, but whatever).

As such, I think r2r's pushing for diddin's lynch while not being on it is more of a mafia tell since they know that their partners are on or off a wagon and don't want to be caught with them (pushing while not being held accountable) while an SK is actively scumhunting and can deal with whoever they want on their own at night.

(for reference here is where I call d3x 3rd party but he was actually just a mafia goon)

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BTW: I hate those types of posts, Konowa.

Either your cases are strong enough to make somebody appear scum on their own or they aren't. Tying people together is a bad way to make your "case" appear stronger than it is.

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@Konowa: Because no scum situation is always the same. I saw a game where one (out of four) scum were on a lynch of a player. I saw plenty of times when all the scum were on a wagon. Unless you can be relatively certain that the scum are specifically looking to not wagoning together; your point about one scum on/one scum off is nothing more than conjecture.

Perhaps townies thought that one wagon was better than a second one. They read the game differently and think that one person is 100% scum, so they're not gonna be on any wagon that the "scum" is on. There's no way that you can really account for all possible permutations in saying that "one of these two are scum, 100%". If you could really be even anywhere close to that sure, then you'd also be able to figure out which of the two was scum and you wouldn't need to tie the two together.

Perhaps one scum is gonna play with the town and follow a fellow scummer that they think will play well, and then get cleared cause "nobody would be that obvious" if the good one is caught. Townies follow strong personalities all the time, it'd definitely be a possibility.

Either tie a player to a dead scum (in the case of mafia, which is still risky if you do it wrong) or prove that they're scummy on their own. Or clear others due to the interactions of a scum or something.

Look at the votes, say why the scum motivation is there and get people to believe you if you truly think one of each of those pairings are scum.

Also, I'm fully caught up. Any particular read of mine that you questioned/wanted to know more about?

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Finally, I'll go back to the initial post where Izzy has her point against Navy: The 4 of {diddin, DoS, Pie/me, Navy} were on the major bandwagons at the time. Obviously 3 of those are dead, 2 of which are town and 1 scum. You could argue that "scum need to bandwagon" and that I'm scum because of that or "there's not likely 50% of the group that would be scum" and say I'm not. Wagon analysis, in my opinion, is largely based on selected experiences rather than cold hard statistics which is what you're trying to base your theory on it seems.

Bring up 100+ games of data, show why it's more likely to be one way or another. Until then, you're going on your own experiences and trying to extrapolate from a very limited data set that won't account or control for all variables.

Also going back to the situation after Izzy voted and put her case out on Navy. Should Annachie (now Dedicated), soras, TheLonging, Raven and CryMe be considered scum because they didn't acknowledge the case from Izzy onto Navy just on the page that Izzy first posted? And here I think my major hangup is: how do you really discern apathy and hoping that something will go away (Izzy's case) and voting for your own reads/case in which you have more invested over the period as scummy or just belief in oneself? From what I've seen of Izzy so far this game, she's a great poster but not as vocal or assertive or ... what's the word I'm looking for here.. memorable! as other people. There are several reasons (some pro-town as evidenced by our only dead person that you brought up voting after that {Fugi} being town).

For your lists of other wagons, why do you not focus more on TheLonging being on all three of them? (Voting somebody else after Izzy's case, on DoS and on Diddin)

Or finally, how about my experience in that people who bandwagon a lot aren't necessarily scum. In two recent examples where I tried to use their votes against somebody: Mafia 94; the two most "bandwagoning" people in the end game were town; and they were on 3-4 more bandwagons than either of the scum. Now that I think about it, either of them were on more bandwagons than the scum combined in endgame. Last Man Standing mafia: Vi and I were easily throwing our votes around the most; we were both town. I think in half of D1 Vi voted for more people than any scum that made it to end game.

Experiences can tell any story that you want it to, statistics show what's really going on. Until I get the latter rather than the former, I'll continue to be unimpressed.

Sorry that this post is all over the place, but there's a lot of thoughts floating around that I have that contradict pure "vote analysis"

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Mod: I'm having intermittent access. It should be resolved soon, sorry for the lack of activity

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@Konowa: Yes, I'm trying to give you an out, so to speak. Either you can or you can't predict scum behavior. (I lean that you can't *ever* predict it, you can only see it after they did it)

If "you" can predict it, use statistics to do so rather than conjecture that the other scum wasn't on Diddin. I challenge you to come to any argument that would make it more likely that scum would be off of Diddin rather than on him at the time.

If you can't predict it, then you tying people together for predicting where scum would be; the whole point is moot and useless.

@Raven: I'm more certain of your scumminess after 1283 than ever before, for a couple reasons: 1) town reads without a lot of reason behind them and 2) that you go so far as to state that you think that Konowa is a *VANILLA* townie. 3) Especially the end part, it looks like you're blatantly trying to buddy up to people you find town (Konowa especially) by going along with his reasoning completely and just voting due to it.

#2 especially reads that either you're trying to talk to a buddy in case you get lynched; or more likely that you're the SK and you're trying to signal who you're going after.

Vote: CCARaven4

@r2r: I think that the term you're looking for in regards to ckd is confirmation bias. As I view that to be more of a town tell; I'd appreciate it if you'd move on with your attacks of somebody that I view to be town, especially since I know ckd suffers from that *as town* (LOST mafia + VP Baltar)

Finally, some thoughts:

As the mafia group isn't named and we don't have any evidence to support a 2nd mafia group being out there, I think that going after the SK is a better idea (eliminating one anti-town kill) whereas if we go after mafia, they're almost certainly to have more than 3 people (which if we lynched them they'd still have a kill tonight). Giving them more time isn't especially concerting to me as they will also have more time to form connections and it's something that we can more easily focus on especially as they won't have a target for their scumhunting.

Also, I have a town read on TheLonging; so I'd rather not see him lynched today.

As of the neighbor issue: a 4 person *all-town* neighbor-group seems highly overpowered; especially as we've had a semi-watcher, a tracker and a bodyguard all revealed; with a vig out there as well.

With my town read of ckd; and my skepticism of Konowa's pushing of chain lynches (if this one is town, the other has to be scum pairings); my money is that he's the scum neighbor and is my 2nd top suspect.

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@ckd: What was Konowa's point on TL that "should've gotten him {Kon} a reason to vote for TL right away today"?

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Ahh, gotcha.

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@Richard: TheLonging's answer to my question feels genuine and I believe he's townie because of that.

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It's a good question when you know what to look for.

Another thing that I think he's getting a lot of flak over is the VT claim thing: I don't get a very ... "hard working", so to speak, vibe from TL. In that regard, I believe he's copy-pasted from the quote rather than really bother and type that all out from a scum perspective. I normally don't bother defending another player too heavily for a multitude of reasons; but I'm pretty confident (85% - 90%) that Longing is town.

If you want to get into this with me, I have all night. Point out what he's done that you feel is scummy and I bet there's a town explanation there as well.

Hell, in a game I finished a while ago; I defended another player (scum) from what I thought were weak attacks and ended up preventing his lynch (we ended up getting a game-draw due to list-mod error but town would've won that game pretty easily). That game is a large part of why I tend to not defend another player, but in this case I'll make an exception if you want to debate this with me.

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Actually, now that I've looked at your {Richard's} case on TheLonging, I really hope nobody was convinced by it.

From ISO 148, your points against TL:

1) Bad feeling about the claim.
2) Structure of a post screams scum/insincere wording
3) (Backtracking about something when TL said that he honestly missed something. I'm not sure on the point here as MS is being really slow for me)
4) No point at all
5) Extended OMGUS (IMO). I read the post that you quoted as him calling you tenative, which can be a scumtell. (Hint: Look at your "VT could be from VT or Scum" point. It's not a scumtell to claim VT)
6) Feels that people don't think he's as scummy after looking at him closely.

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Some small bit about confirmation bias (cause you can never be wrong, right?) /rollseyes
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7) More OMGUS reasons (you {TL} think I'm {Richard} suspicious, and I {Richard} think you're suspicious for suspecting me {Richard}). I want you to explain why you feel that people watching out for somebody they got a negative feel for is a scumtell; that's all the feeling I get from TL on his suspicion of you {Richard}

8) BS about calling TL paranoid when you openly admit to it yourself.

9) Being aggressive and pursuing a case that has a long history of slight suspicion behind it is now a scumtell too.

And now I'm sick of reading your crap logic. If you basically weren't 100% clear I'd vote for you for pushing something so ridiculous.

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You're just angry cause I called you out on being wrong. You don't (or can't) defend your position cause you know I'm right about your whole case. I sure as hell ain't gonna replace out cause there's somebody I disagree with over a read.

I'm trying to prove your logic wrong because I don't agree with any of it that I saw. If you can't see past your own nose, why don't you replace out so that the town has somebody that will actually help towards looking at all sides of the argument.

Also, let's analyze your position against me:

First, I'm attacking you (false, I'm calling your arguments bunk, I specifically stated that I basically know you're not scum so I'm not wasting my time scumhunting on you).

Second point: I'm defending another player (false, I have a town read on somebody, not calling everything he does as pro-town and bringing examples into it; and I'm calling a large amount of the arguments put forth against him *by one player* bunk).

Finally, I do like that you're taking away from a wagon on "obvscum" in your opinion; and not allowing somebody to hammer said person as that would be beneficial if he were indeed "obvscum", correct?

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So why bring it up in the first place? If you know that I'm confirmed town, you don't need to attemp to invalidate my arguments. Unless you are scum.

Wrong.

Just because you're confirmed town does not make you automatically right. I'm scumhunting, and I believe you to be on the wrong path. Therefore I'm disagreeing with all of your points on why TL is "scummy beyond belief".

Are all of Fugi's, DoS's, Nico's, diddin's and Parama's views automatically right now that we know their alignment? Of course not. Are all of yours gonna be right now that you're basically confirmed? (hint: it's the same answer as before)

Calling a town-read on someone AFTER they have already been deemed scum by many falls under 'defending'.

Wrong.

I expressed my own views. Until now I haven't even pushed that view onto people and left it open to questioning. Actively pointing to things that I believe are indicative of TL being town without prompting is defending; or perhaps actively attacking anyone and everyone that I feel is scummy on a wagon that I feel to be bogus is defending. I fall under neither of these catagories.

Also, appeal to a majority is bogus. If the majority was always correct, we'd never have a mislynch. Because "many" people call somebody scum doesn't make them right either.

But my vote for TL still counts, since unvotes aren't required. AFAIK, if nobody unvotes him then the next vote for TL is the hammer.

Wrong.

Unvotes aren't required because you voting for somebody else implies that you're unvoting the previous person. So unless you have two votes miraculously, your vote is on me and me only.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a scum neighbour. IIRC they're quite common in games with neighbours, and the term itself implies that there is at least one scum mason, since 'masons' are generally always pro-town. I believe neighbour is the term given to a mason when he/she is among those of varying alignments.

Wrong.

Look at BattleMage's role in post #2

Resorting to petty insults, are we? Not liking this at all. I'm not dismissing your points because I can't make valid arguments against them, but because your points don't really make a lot of sense tbqh.

I didn't realize me calling you "angry" was an insult. You're quite thin-skinned if you feel it is. I suggest taking a step back and trying to actually look at what I read and understanding where I'm coming from with my arguments.

As for my points against your pbpa thing of TL: I go through and summarized what I view you to be saying with your attacks on TL. If you can't see why all of those points are bogus, then that's not especially my problem either.

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@Konowa: Why are you so concerned about labeling your suspicions as mafiascum or serial killer? And what makes the mafia a bigger threat to you right now that you're specifically hunting them moreso than the SK?

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@r2r: How is pman's stance really that significantly different from what ckd

I will probably hammer TL sooner than later

or Konowa

I am going to hold off on hammering

to warrant pman getting a FoS compared to the other two?

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See: I didn't read it that way at all; I saw it as "This day isn't going anywhere, I don't think that TL is obviously scummy but in the interest of game progression I'll hammer if there isn't quite enough support for the hammer"

I'll admit that this view doesn't make a lot of sense as TL is at L-1 and we have two people willing to cast a vote on him; but I don't see it as scummy as you do.

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EBWOP:

@r2r: What happens if/when TL turns town (like I believe he will)? In your case go with "if" as you obviously don't believe he's town.

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So if you've consistently been most suspicious of pman/ckd, why are you voting for TL and not advocating your own case?

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@Mod: I replaced DScribe in another game, I think he might've flaked

@ckd: It's because I'm more concise with my questions, that people can just read it and check a quick fact that happened recently. Or Bogre wants to buddy me, I'm not sure right now.

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I get that you're concerned about each grouping as you are (and have been) labeling your suspicions as one or the other; without a lot of reasoning that could be applied to one over another (Both sk and mafia are guilty, killing people, and interested in self-preservation above all).

I say that you're hunting Mafia above SK as you've been questioning TL and I a fair amount lately, and until you mentioned Bogre as being possibly SK (and the vote) you haven't really attacked either r2r or DS. Actually, I see you "agreeing" more with both DS and r2r as they're both on your stated top suspect throughout the day.

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I just want to lol at Richard unvoting after calling him out. Continue on with your paid programming.

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To point out that even you don't believe your own cases.

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/me wonders if/how this correlates to CMAR saying he's looking at other options as well.

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Ugh.

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That... wasn't really surprising at all. Nice gambit there CKD.

Konowa, what were you thinking going after the scum group? Seriously, you needed us to help whittle down the numbers of the town.

If you look at the mafia kills, we get a PR every single time, while you're wiping us out without lynching us. Seriously? After we're dead you can't pass yourself off as a vig.

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Yeah, but I was right about the theory which is something that I wanted to point out. THEORY DOESN'T WORK WHEN YOU CAN'T READ THE SCUMGROUP'S MINDS! You kept arguing for shit that wasn't true, and now I can prove it.

I wouldn't have gone after you any time soon as I thought you were too smart to keep killing scum.

Mafia QT:
http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/g4PNEcDZmsN

Thread of the Dead (we who were killed got a chance to talk about the game as it progressed, and was the only reason that I kept watching this game)
http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/gdWxDXLB7veb

Finally, I'm proud of myself for figuring out that CMAR was a power role (even narrowed it down to a protective role) of some sort.

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EBWOP: Honestly, I still don't see how TL was lynched. If I were him; I'd bring up how he got rung up to L-1 within the first 5 pages of a large normal; and say that scum don't buss that early and that scum had to be there (I think 3 out of the 4 were there and all of us had pretty crappy reasons) if anybody wanted to look back for their own experience and seeing scum in action.

I was gonna bring up wagon analysis, but I was on so many of them in conspicuous spots that I was afraid I'd implicate myself.

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So why didn't you go after him? I was assuming that you'd be more afraid of either Dizzy or CMAR since you can't delegate other kills to other people and avoid a tracker in that manner. Dizzy especially I thought you'd be worried about.

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Well, you need somebody looking for them to really notice, I forgot about it until I looked at the player list again. Pman missed it, and I don't think anybody else really caught it (or if they did they didn't say anything).

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That's all you needed to do to win though, so it works.

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It's the same in any multi-scum setup though as scum; you lynch scum and shoot town. I can understand (barely) pman/flare; but when you "knew" I was scum just push a lynch on me. I assume you're un-nkable (or at least bulletproof) which is why you were hoping for r2r to try to shoot you tonight and would've taken another day; but I doubt that would've mattered much.

I don't understand why you got to be in the neighbor group but the mafia couldn't. That was another hangup of mine.

Tar: Mod thoughts/setup design thoughts?

@ckd: I didn't think you were the SK! Course, I have some experience with you in LOST so I can filter out your playstyle. When I play with you I figure whoever you're adamant about I can ignore since they're town

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Soras, you didn't do too bad for your first time. I was actually not that disappointed with anybody's play except maybe diddin; cause I really don't have a lot of regard for D1 town lynches. You're actually in the sweet spot that I'm trying to get my playstyle to at the moment. You're scummy enough not to get that much attention; but pro-town enough not to get lynched.

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Well CKD, I wish you would've been on my scumteam <3

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Haha, I'm intimidating as scum! RAWR!!!! lol

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Just so you know you shouldn't have shot me; and carry that onto later games is all I ask for.

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@Nico: Just the protecting part was caught by me, but that was enough.