Mafia 110: Mafia in Hell, Michigan (Tied.)

[nhammen]

OK, I'm in this game right now! So, can somebody get me up to date on what is going on?

[nhammen]

There is nothing about odd or even in my PM...

[nhammen]

Could I have a link to Kison's mole case and also to the riken case. Also, did both cases start on the same day? Which case started earlier? Is it possible that the later case was started as a response to the earlier case?

How many scum do people think are left? In other words, how close do people think we are to MYLO or LYLO? I ask this mainly because I want to know if it is too early to massclaim or not.

I think the only current issue left is the Ythan claim. First of all, about the killscene that Ythan mentions: note Ythan claims to have killed the Doctor. Even disregarding any flavor, we notice that if Ythan killed the Doctor, then who did the Mafia kill? So that means that, if there is no redirection, there must have been 3 kills: Ythan's kill, the Mafia kill, and whoever killed the Mafia Tracker. So, either there are 3 kills on that night at least, or Ythan's kill was redirected to the Mafia member. Unless someone can see another way this could have developed?

Also, since I haven't read the thread, so I don't know the obvious things, could someone tell me why this is the case:

Farside was obv killed by scum

[nhammen]

Well, Unsight's post inspired me to ISO the mod for vote counts. This guy looks like a very useful one (equal wagons are always useful):

FinalVote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

Diacria

- 6 - Ythan, MoleStargazer, Konowa, Kison, Rikenslope, Unsight - (

LYNCHED

)

Rikenslope

- 5 - Lowell, Riddick, pman5595, Diacria, Nachomama8 - (L-1)

Players not voting:

None

Unfortunately we don't have much flip information to use here, so I'll save it for a little later.

So, my todo list looks like this:
ISO Kison to find his cases.
ISO molestar to see if I agree
ISO riken to see if I find him scummy
vote count analysis

I'll do the last one first, because it seems easiest. Post shall arrive before the end of the day.

[nhammen]

This is a seriously depressing vote count analysis...

It appears that Crypto liked to jump around with his vote, Dr. Cyanide only voted crypto with his, and neither one of them ever fell under any suspicion. Mole did have a vote on crypto at the beginning of the game, but that was probably random...

In all of these vote counts, any players that are not yet dead have been updated for replacements. I am choosing vote counts that show peak votes on the plurality player at any given time. Hopefully I didn't miss any.

Day 1 Richard

RichardGHP

(4) -

Farside22

,

Horrordude0215

,

JBernier93

, Ythan

WRP_Beater

(3) -

Crypto

,

SaintKerrigan

,

DedicatedScribe

Crypto

(2) -

Dr. Cyanide

, Molestargazer

Dedicated Scribe

(1) - Unsight
Kison (1) -

Lowell

This is the first vote count with any number of votes on it. It was probably during RVS, but I can't be sure. D1 seems to have much more frequent vote counts.

Day 1 Beater

Kison (1) - Nachomama8

DedicatedScribe

(1) - Unsight

horrordude0215

(2) -

Crypto

,

pman5595

nhammen (1) -

Lowell

RichardGHP

(3) - MoleStargazer, Rikenslope, Ythan

SaintKerrigan

(1) -

Farside22

WRP_Beater

(7) -

DedicatedScribe

,

JBernier93

,

Nobody Special

, Riddick,

SaintKerrigan

,

horrordude0215

,

RichardGHP

That last line pings my scummeter slightly. I need to check and see what the case on Beater was (to see if scum would have stayed away from that wagon for any reason)... YAY! another thing on my todo list.

Day 1 horror lynch

Crypto

(1) -

Dr. Cyanide

DedicatedScribe

(1) - Unsight

horrordude0215

(11) -

pman5595

, Ythan,

Crypto

,

Lowell

, Kison, MoleStargazer,

JBernier93

,

Nobody Special

,

DedicatedScribe

,

horrordude0215

,

RichardGHP

Rikenslope (1) - Nacomama8

WRP_Beater

(2) - Riddick, Rikenslope
Ythan (1) -

horrordude0215

Ummm.... horror is listed here twice and voted himself... yeah. Hmmm... When did riken put his vote on Beater, was it before the wagon lost steam or after?

Day 2 Nobody lynch

DedicatedScribe

(1) -

Lowell

MoleStargazer (1) - Nachomama8

Nobody Special

(9) - Ythan, Kison,

DedicatedScribe

, Riddick, Rikenslope,

Farside22

, nhammen, MoleStargazer, Unisght
Rikenslope (1) -

pman5595

SaintKerrigan

(1) -

JBernier93

Every single living player except for nacho's slot is on this lynch. This gives absolutely zero information.

Day 3 Lowell

DedicatedScribe

(1) - MoleStargazer

Dragonfly13

(1) - Unsight

JBernier93

(2) - Riddick,

Lowell

Lowell

(5) -

pman5595

,

Farside22

, nhammen, Ythan,

DedicatedScribe

MoleStargazer (1) - Kison
Nachomama8 (1) -

JBernier93

Ythan(2) - Rikenslope,

Dragonfly13

nacho is the only player with no vote out here. not much here.

Day 3 riken

DedicatedScribe

(1) - MoleStargazer

Lowell

(1) -

DedicatedScribe

MoleStargazer (1) - Kison
Rikenslope (7) -

Farside22

, Unsight, nhammen, Ythan,

pman5595

,

Lowell

, Riddick
Ythan (2) -

Dragonfly13

,

JBernier93

the lowell wagon died fast... or there was significant time lapse between wagons. nacho and riken both have no vote out. This bothers me. Scum trying to avoid setting their opinion in stone?

Day 3 dragonfly lynch

DedicatedScribe

(1) - MoleStargazer

Dragonfly13

(8) - Unsight,

pman5595

, Nachomama8, Ythan, Riddick,

Lowell

, nhammen,

Farside22

Lowell

(1) -

DedicatedScribe

MoleStargazer (1) - Kison
Ythan (2) -

Dragonfly13

,

JBernier93

riken is the only person not voting here. Why?

Day 4 diacria lynch

Diacria

(6) - Ythan, MoleStargazer, nhammen, Kison, Rikenslope, Unsight

Rikenslope

(5) -

Lowell

, Riddick,

pman5595

,

Diacria

, Nachomama8

I always love split wagons. It gives so much more info that a dominant wagon. Although it does sometimes also allow scum to avoid the noose. Everyone had to lay down a vote here. Both of last night's kills were on players that voted for riken. Coincidence? Retaliation? WIFOM? could be any of these.

Honestly, I was hoping to get some idea of the game flow from this analysis. But all I got from this is that there is too much green, and not enough red. I already knew that from the first post! The only other thing I learned is that nacho and riken have been avoiding putting any votes down. I don't know if I am ready to vote either one of them yet: need more info. Will do some ISOs tomorrow, and then post.

[nhammen]

I just ISOed riken (well, I partially ISOed him then fell asleep, and then woke up at 3 am with my comp monitor right in front of my face and finished it off). He spends most of the game attacking Ythan and farside, and avoids even mentioning any other players.

His responses show that a few players didn't like his response to the Day 1 horror wagon. There were precisely 3 posts before horror's lynch in which he mentioned horror before the lynch. The first two are about how intense the fight between horror and Ythan are, and the third says horror will probably be lynched by deadline. He gives no reasons for not voting him until AFTER his lynch. Well...

@pman if you really did read my iso then you see that the only time I talked about horror was during the epic argument between him and ythan and those post were just noting that the argument was stupid and trivial at best and that horror getting lynched at that point was almost a foregone conclusion. My not jumping on the bandwagon was because I had a person I thought was scummier at the time.

But this is the argument he used against the player he was voting:

Beater was scummy by definition of a word to make a case against him look weak. Then claiming that he didn't know he was misdefining it. (There is a wiki look it up)

And this argument was given after the lynch. Now let us compare to this:

@Dragonfly:

All in all Mole's breakdowns seem fairly accurate as it pertains to analyzing the night kills and lynches and their respective voters. He and I align a little on thoughts toward who he and I think are scummy. I find it weird though that he votes for Horror day one based on the "Smiley Theory" then when Kison brings it up he says he had a reason. Only to find he doesn't. I can't condone voting without reasoning even on day 1. Over all I find him mild-moderately scummy.

Why is this "smiley theory" any worse than your "word theory"? (not a criticism, I wasn't there for either one of these cases)

I will set this onto Unsight's shoulders...

Vote:Diacria

BTW Nacho: Your only real post up till this point was telling us to hold off on everything until we lynched Farside. I don't trust you one bit. And I have a feeling that you are possibly scum. But for now I am voting the way I am. And I have no need to defend myself as the only two people who have said why they are voting me today are: Pman who thinks its scummy to not vote town players and Riddick who said it is either me or Lowell and since the Lowell wagon wasn't going anywhere today it was vote me.

Translation: "hi nacho, I find you very very scummy, but I'll vote for someone else right now." Why?

To you asking for each of our suspects(Unsight I think) I am leaning toward Nacho and my second suspect is in the air.

And now you suddenly drop the attack on Ythan, and say nacho is scumiest. With only having even mentioned him once before. And your second suspect is up in the air... What happened to your suspicions of Ythan?

So, to sum up:
-Concentrates on Ythan and farside, avoiding mention of others; tunneling or scummy way to avoid giving an opinion?
-weak response to day 1 wagon; null-tell at this point, but I'd like his comments
-sudden suspicion of nacho, and sudden disinterest in Ythan; realized he hadn't mentioned his scumbuddy yet?

Riken, here is your homework: give us a player by player analysis of ever living player in the game. Right now, from your entire posting history I know your opinion of precisely 3 living players. I would also very much like to know why Ythan has dropped off your scumlist entirely, as of the time of that post.

[nhammen]

A day and a half and no posts... Are people flaking, or is it the site?

[nhammen]

Wow! We simulposted! How ironic!

[nhammen]

Oh, wow! a 2 week deadline! Didn't notice this earlier.

vote riken

If the mod moves the deadline, and riken answers my questions, this may be removed.

[nhammen]

Massclaim++

I was planning to ISO Kise and Mole since, well, the end of the previous Day. Unfortunately I tend to procrastinate, so I haven't done it yet. Need to do it soon. Will get on it right away.

[nhammen]

vanilllllllla.


who's left? nhammen? is that it?

he's the mason I assume.

Correct. Konowa breadcrumbed it in a response to farside (I know this because he mentioned in QT before I replaced him).

unsight and musher/konowa are my last two and then I will have a wrap up of my top suspects

farside just made a funny.

Unsight told me that he was more suspicious of Kison and mole. I am more suspicious of Nacho, but I am currently reading the Kison and mole ISOs to see what I think. The Kison info is almost ready to post.

Funnily enough, I thought I saw Cop tells coming from Riddick. Just more examples of how I can not read peoples' roles for the life of me. But, hmmm. Riddick, why were you pushing so hard for a massclaim?

[nhammen]

So, I ISOed Kison, and here is what I saw:

Dr.Cyanide

: Where are you? Who do you suspect and why?

Nice catch Farside.

Between horrordude, crypto and beater, crypto does look scummier, but only because horrordude and beater look like newbie town.

Vote:Crypto

because I'm sure I did this already.

Please explain what made beater and horrordude appear like "newbie town" as opposed to crypto. This is awfully vague.

town++

In ISO 10 he calls out the previous holder of Nacho's slot for lurking.

He has his PBPA in ISO 16.
He attacks Nacho's slot as lurking, wishy washy, and scummy. I agree.
About riken he says, "All in all, not the most active player, but most of his posts serve a purpose. As such, I would look elsewhere for today's lynch." scum++
I agree with the mole case he presents in his PBPA.

ISO 19 and 21 looks like a good case against mole.

ISO 31 has good logical attack on Dedicated Scribe's actions re: horror. Scum can use good logic too though. Kinda wondering where this good logic was earlier. I've only seen him really logically discuss Dr. Cyanide, mole, and now DS.

Until his mole case, Kison tends to only call out lurkers and VIs and none of his own posts are very substantive until he has this case. This looks to me to be a null tell, but attacking lurkers is a pretty easy way for scum to appear townish. Once he has the mole case, he tunnels hard. This looks very much like what an uninformed player might do before he has a real suspect, and after he has a real suspect. So the real question here is whether Kison is actually part of the Uninformed Majority, or is just good at acting uninformed. I'm leaning toward the former at this time.

[nhammen]

Posting in response to prod. I haven't made any contribution to any of my games much in the past few days. I will have content in the next 12 hours. I am more convinced of Nacho than mole, but everyone other than mole seems to feel the other direction. Unsight had the same opinion as everyone else last night. So maybe I'm just stuck on Nacho for some reason.

[nhammen]

Please, PLEASE could you guys (Ythan / Horror) just hold your tongues for a bit? You're not helping the town by adding to this volume - I'm lucky I have no college work to do tonight so I can spend some time reading the 5/6 pages of bickering. I'm sure others won't be able / won't be bothered to catch up when they see how much there is to do.
If you've not made your points clear by this stage, you're doing it wrong. Let us decide.

town++
scum would just let them have at it.

After this, he seems to tunnel very often. I dunno. I like Kison's case against him, but I'm not sure about this. I'm still leaning towards Nacho. Unfortunately, my Nacho suspicions come from riken's actions. He completely ignored Nacho, and then suddenly says out of nowhere that he finds Nacho scummy. And after saying Nacho is scummy, he votes Diacria instead. It is textbook distancing. ISOing RayFrost/Nacho next.

[nhammen]

RayFrostWikiManager

RFWM attacked multiple players, including riken, for lurking. Then went after riken specifically, for joining easy wagons only. And then voted mole for no real reason. When riken started to take suspicion, RFWM's opinion of riken changed to neutral leaning town. Attacking when there is no pressure on the player, changes to defending when there is? Looks like distancing to me. His reasoning for all of his suspicions looked like crap.

Hi Kison!

RayFrostWikiManager

- He's made a few relevant posts, but not very many. I have him easily further into the scum category for a single post he made during Day One where he subtly pushed the Richard wagon by claiming there was a high chance he was lying about his role, and that pressure votes should be applied, but then stating that he might not be a good lynch. Very wishy washy and noncommittal.

My reasoning behind that was that I thought he was more likely than not to be lying, but I wasn't willing to push a claimed town power role for a lynch Day 1. I was pretty surprised to find him dead N1. I don't understand the subtle part of it.

- In the same post he throws a vote onto Rikenslope for unexplained reasons.

Is that a scumtell? If so, how?

Votes for ace for unexplained reasons. Later explains these as lurking pressure.

Is that a scumtell? If so, how?

More recently we have him promising to catch up and failing to deliver. How he could seem like a bad vote is beyond me.

That has more to do with me not being used to large game pace and having real life problems. I appreciate being given a chance to catch up.

Wow!
And now he says that he has been testing out a new gut based playstyle. Ok.
And then Nacho replaces in at the same moment RFWM replaces out.

Nacho

lurks... and joins the riken wagon with no comment. And switches to Diacria with same. And switches back to riken because he is Nacho's favorite process of elimination suspect. And lurks more. Nothing much to say about this.

[nhammen]

It's got to be either mole or Nacho, but I'm not sure which. Kison's case on mole looks good. riken's actions towards Nacho, and RFWM's actions towards riken both look like distancing. Choices choices...

[nhammen]

Unless you think the Mafia's got a doc or a blocker we can just lynch one and I'll kill the other.

Hmmm... yes. That should work. If we lynch a townie, you kill the other person. If we lynch a scum... hmmm... If we lynch scum and there is one scum kill left, and you kill, that leaves a 3 player LYLO. Better than 4 player. The only possible problem is if we kill scum and there are still 2 scum kills left.

[nhammen]

I knew Kison was uninformed! I figured one of mole and Nacho had to be the last Mafia... I should have done an ISO of Riddick!

It's pretty funny how all of the night kills made it so that the two scum teams drew.

I'm fine with the QT being shared.