New York 115: Wickedestjr's Large Mafia (Game Over)

[Sucrose]

/confirming

[Sucrose]

VOTE: Adrien C

testing testing...awesome.

[Sucrose]

SSBF is actually right. I've skimmed over my own posts before I got an avatar without even REALIZING it.

Scum skim.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Mitsu

Scum do skim, but how did you miss the past tense in Mitsuru's post? Bad reason for a serious vote.

BM, why are you self-voting?

It's both the aforementioned reasons, and also that i genuinely believe i am scum. I haven't read the role pm- just got a funny feelin!

Not reading your role PM can only help scum.

Unvote

[Sucrose]

Are you serious?

[Sucrose]

I'm a bit wary of the Adrian wagon. Claiming there's scum on the BM wagon then

blatantly

floundering when asked to name names seems more like the actions of town rather than scum. Scum can make up BS.

I'm gonna VOTE: Karma. He reminds me of me, when I play as scum.

[Sucrose]

Sorry, I've been busy and have been neglecting this game. I'll catch up within the next 24 hours, promise.

[Sucrose]

Alright, just did a ton of catching up.

Page 10
guy0 is a deeply nervous player. Could be a nervous newbie, but I'm thinking nervousness of his type is more along the lines of scum. I get the feeling he reads and re-reads his posts, which obviously has some bad implications.

As I continue reading, he just gets scummier and scummier.
Blast from the past:

Vote: Guy0

. Every damn post this dude has made has been scummy.

I'm reading around page 10 or so, and yeah Mitsu is scummy as hell.
She acts defensive against a series bandwagon and makes nothing but a weak, weak attack on a player on hes wagon at Vez's prompting. (Page 12)

Unfortunately, now she's showing textbook newb town behavior. And considering how bad her play would be for scum earlier, I'm doubting she's faking it. Scum just doesn't switch up playstyles that fast.

Blaze is all over the place. The things he says are bold, which makes me lean newb town, but also has contradictions, OMGUS and other strange stuff. I'm gonna do an ISO sometime my eyes aren't so tired.

BM is either Obvtown, or masterful scum. I'm gonna go with Obvtown. And a multitude of players are buddying up with him because it's obvious to scum too.
I have no idea why he's drawing the nightkill. He's a pretty useful player, it's a waste.

Me getting NKed tonight would clear the game up alot.

Ah. I hope you know what you're doing

@BattleMage

Top 4 scum:
Guy
Blaze
Mitso
CJMiller

Top Town
BattleMage
Dana

[Sucrose]

1. Fair enough. May I ask why, as I would love to answer any questions you may or may not have about my alignment.

2. I don't think any of those roles are in this game. I believe it's straight town vs. mafia.

3. This...makes sense. A lot of it. But there's a bunch of variables to take into account, but this is a very good theory.

As a townie, you think another townie believing you are scum is "fair enough," when he doesn't even list his reasons why?

How can you have any reasons to believe that this is straight town vs. mafia this early in the game?

I'm replacing Mitsu with Adrien on my Top Four list.

[Sucrose]

This is my first game outside the newbie forum, so I was assuming the third parties was strictly for the Theme Park forum. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

Alright, nothing suspicious there, then.

And so opportunistic of you, jump at something like that when you have made a grand total of 8 posts, 1 of which actually had content. Been lurking? And the fact you jumped like that when I was your opening random vote makes me wonder if you know more than you are willing to tell us about who is scum and who is not. I've got my eye on you.

No sir, I have not been lurking, I have been flaking. Sorry about that. I plan on being active from now on. But I have read the entire game, and there's been

plenty

of material to form suspicions off of.

Adrien, if you could lynch someone right now, what player would you lynch?

@Richard
Why are you getting so pissed off at Chevre? You only have 1 vote on you.

[Sucrose]

Between Blaze, CJMiller, and Mitsu, I prefer a Blaze lynch. Someone upthread said that CJ

always

posts like this, which makes me hesitant to lynch him.

Vote: BlazezRb

But if anyone wants to switch over to Guy0, I'm game.

[Sucrose]

New suspects:

Karma - Gut feeling mostly. I'm not going to elaborate right now, but he's a lynch i can run through on, because unlike the Blaze wagon, a Karma-lynch might actually tell us something.

Ninja'd. I'd rather not lynch on gut feeling on D1. How does a Karma lynch tell us more than a Blaze lynch?

MehPlusRawr - He claims he lurks everywhere, but looking at the game Richard cited, Mafia 113, he didnt lurk at all. And i really dislike him using this as a defence.

Good info to know.

[Sucrose]

MPR: So why would you join this game in the first place?

More importantly, why have you taken up chronic lurking?

And why did he show up within a half-hour of being called out for lurking?

[Sucrose]

Lynching town is worse than no lynching, which is worse than lynching scum.

Technically you're correct, but unless someone has an innocent result on you, we're not in this situation. "Unhelpful town" generally has a significant chance of flipping scum, IMHO.

[Sucrose]

Eh, it was a bad example, but say that a guy has played 10 games as scum and 30 as town. In all the scum games, three factors were alike, and none of them were in the town games. If all of those 3 factors pop up in one game, you can conclude that he's probably not town and is probably scum.

Funny how MPR will write multi-line posts about info, but one-liners about analysis. In fact, looking at his ISO, he's written no analysis at all, except to attack technical points of players bandwagoning him.

Unvote, Vote: MehPlusRawr

I have noted the speed in which the first Mitsu wagon gained steam, followed by the slowness of the Blaze and Meh wagons, and the speed at which the wagon has shifted back to Mitsu.
Now, if Mitsu flips scum, I'll look like a big, scummy dummy, but I have a really hard time believing that all the players who have been on both of her wagons are town.

[Sucrose]

Fail. I wasn't even on either of those wagons.

No, but the scumbuddies who are trying to take the heat off of you and back onto the easy lynch sure are.

[Sucrose]

I'm not attempting to be lazy at all. I've said my piece. I've said everything that could possibly save me from a lynch. But at this point I realize that it's better that I die at this point and you all get some info from my lynch.

Weak. If you're a townie, you are the ONLY person you know is town. Pushing a lynch onto almost anybody else is going to have better odds of hitting scum than the 0% odds of hitting scum if you get yourself lynched.

I had been thinking you were town, but I'm wondering if this isn't a last ditch attempt for sympathy.

[Sucrose]

To be fair it's only been one day. I'm still voting for him, every post he's made has been info or nitpicks over analysis, and I'm thinking he's lazy scum.

[Sucrose]

The fact that there's neighbors rather than masons is a pretty big hint that one of them is scum. Not that I'd put it past the mod to make an all-town group of neighbors, but with EGL's comment I think it's pretty much a given that there is one.

Gonna re-read as soon as I have time.

[Sucrose]

I was told at some point that asking to be lynched over a PR was scummy, and decided to adapt that to my new approach. perhaps not in the most professional way, but it's a start.

This is not at all what I said to you D1. There are definitely two mafias, unless the mod has decided to be ultra-tricky.
These are only two of many things you've misrepresented. The only thing that makes me hesitant to vote for you is how blindingly fast these wagons keep going up to L-1 on you.

[Sucrose]

I'm gonna

Vote: Asaclardy

This guy is totally scum. Rolefishing and claiming for no reason whatsoever.

[Sucrose]

Belated V/LA until Wednesday

[Sucrose]

I'm back. Will re-read when I have time. I'm most curious to know what Q21 targetted Demon with.

Oh yeah, and Blaze has got to be scum.

[Sucrose]

@Everyone: Would it be a good idea for people who were "neighborized" by silverbullet to claim? That would provide some further information for us to go on.

I think this might be a good idea. One mafia already knows who was "neighborized" and being neighborized presumably doesn't give any hint as to role status, so sharing who Silverbullet made a neighbor might be good information to have. I can't see how it could hurt.

[Sucrose]

If you'd been paying any attention to the game you'd know. Missing small things is human, but missing the reason for the Day 2 lynch of BM... that borders on a level of apathy that is scummy.

Yes indeed, I am an idiot.

Anyway, let's lynch scum today. VOTE: Blaze
L-1

CJ, who did you watch N1? Sorry if I missed this.

[Sucrose]

I did indeed target Vezo last night.

Having so many of our PR's outed isn't the greatest thing, but I think by narrowing down the list of suspects we have a good chance here.

[Sucrose]

No, I did get roleblocked. I have nothing on Vezo, but I wanted to wait and see what you said about roleblocking me before I claimed it.

Right now I have absolutely no reason to believe either CJ or Q21 is scum. CJ is definitely town, and while there's a slight possibility Q21 could be a scum-roleblocker, I think it's very, very unlikely. His response to roleblocking me was perfectly town.

On to suspects: I don't have a result that clears Adrien, but I'd prefer a different lynch than him today. I really, really wish I had a result on Vezo, but I don't know why scum would reply with "Sweet, I'm cop confirmed" when he thought he'd been targeted by a cop. (Unless he's a godfather, but lets not think about that today)
This leaves:

Foilist
DavidParker
ToonFighter
SlySly (Karma)
Mitsu
Asaclardy
Chevre
Richard
Kunkstar

Out of all of these, I think Richard has played the scummiest and most opportunistic, so I'm going to

Vote: Richard

for now.

[Sucrose]

(Oops, above was supposed to be in reply to Q21)

[Sucrose]

Also, does anyone with more experience than me in Large Mafia games know how close to LYLO we might be?

[Sucrose]

@Toonfighter

I disagree about scum roleblockers. There's been two outed PR's for two nights now, and neither of them has been roleblocked. If scum had a roleblocker, they would have used him. I'd guess either both scumgroups thought the other would kill Blaze, or both thought he was rival scum.

More probabilities: So far we've had two scum PR flips, the Red Doctor and the Blue Neighborizer. Since I imagine the scumgroups will have an equal number of PR's, we've got three possibilities:
1. There's a Blue Mafia Doctor and a Red Mafia Neighborizer out there.
2. The two scumgroups each had a PR, and both are dead. If this is the scenario, I think the third killer is much more likely to be an SK.
3. The roles between the two scumgroups are unrelated, and the Red and Blue Mafias each have an unknown PR left.
We also have that vig or SK to deal with.

I would support a Richard or Kunkster lynch. I'm not sure about Mitsu.

[Sucrose]

If they thought one of the PR's was scum why in the world would they hesitate to kill them? They are not running the risk of a double kill, and the opposing scum faction is a bigger and more direct threat than the town. They can talk their way out of lynches, not out of night kills.

FoS: Sucrose

Maybe they wouldn't. I lost as scum in my last game by being overwhelmed by town PR's after crosskill after crosskill. It doesn't matter why they didn't target Blaze, the point is that there's probably no scum-blockers.

[Sucrose]

You're mixing up actions that happened N2 and N3.

[Sucrose]

If it's weird that CJ saw me visit Vezok when I was roleblocked, you're gonna have to take it up with the mod. CJ HAS to be telling the truth, there's no other possible way he could know that I targeted Vezok last night. And I was definitely roleblocked, I PM'd the mod for confirmation.

It might be weird, but I'm seriously, 95% certain that all three of us are town. And I have no clue why neither Q21 or CJ have been killed.

I do NOT know that Adrien isn't scum, I just don't want him lynched today.

[Sucrose]

Alright, this is causing more confusion than benefits at this point, so I'll claim. I'm not a cop, I'm a Town Tracker.

N1: Tracked Adrien. He didn't move. This means he's either a VT or a scum Goon who didn't submit the kill.
N2: Tracked Q21. He visited DH, unfortunately our Watcher and I got the exact same results.
N3. Tried to track Vezok, was roleblocked.

[Sucrose]

Seeing as q21's lynch seems inevitable, if he flips town, I think it's safe to assume CJ and/or Sucrose are scum.

Hello scum. How does q21 flipping town make us scum? Actually, from your perspective, it's a good plan. Get one PR lynched over confusion about how his role works, and claim that the other two are scummy because he flipped town. Nice.

[Sucrose]

Now, as a town. He did that job in post 1473, and I could belive him. The only problem we have her is with CJ's surveillance. But that is actually more a problem with CJ than it is with q21. He is the one who got us to out another PR, he is the one who has results not compatible with the other two. I can very easily see q21 as town and a scum team consisting of CJ, Adrien and Sucrose. Of the three, CJ is probably a scum watcher, Adrien goon or random role, and Sucrose goon or another role as well. It would fit with everything they said so far. Maybe CJ claimed sucrose to visit vezok to cause trouble for q21, as he knew Sucrose had been RB'd. Plus, we got virtually nothing of Sucrose's claim, other than he doesn't want Adrien lynched.

Alright, let's think about this. In your theory, how could CJ know that I was roleblocked if I don't really have any PR powers? And your theory doesn't really work if CJ was a scum Watcher and I was a scum Tracker, because we've already killed one scum PR on each team. Since the scum teams probably need equal numbers of PR's to be balanced, that would mean there would have to be

six

scum PR's in the game. There's no possible way. Actually, in order for me, CJ, and Adrien to be on the same scumteam, there would be eight scum players at the start of the game, assuming that scumteams are balanced. That's too high. The theory doesn't make any sense, TF.

Q21

could

be a scum roleblocker, but my gut feeling is still that he's telling the truth and this is a mod error.
Let's wait a little bit before we lynch anybody.

Also, I'm a she, but I won't be offended if nobody remembers that.

[Sucrose]

No response from the mod

Outside of a mod mix up there are two possibilities. One is that both sucrose and I were roleblocked... the odds of that are astronomical. The other is much simpler, CJ is lying. Not about being a Watcher (no way in hell does he get my night 2 target right without being a Watcher),

but about his alignment and about his result for last night.

I can't think of any other reasons for the discrepancy and I know that from the town's perspective it makes me look a lot worse than the other two. Sadly, there's nothing I can really do to explain the situation and therefore defend myself. Which is frustrating given that without the PRs I've played a lot townier than CJ and a fair bit townier than Sucrose.

Ninja'd

I tried to target Vezok last night. There's no way in hell CJ could possibly guess that, even if he somehow already knew I was a PR.

[Sucrose]

Again, if CJ, Adrien(because he corroborates my claim) and I are all scumbuddies along with a dead scum PR, there's too many players on the field.

Anyway,

Unvote, Vote: Mitsuru

, although I still want to wait a bit before we make a lynch.

[Sucrose]

Again, if CJ, Adrien(because he corroborates my claim) and I are all scumbuddies along with a dead scum PR, there's too many players on the field.

Forget this point, I wasn't thinking in terms of opposing scum teams. It's entirely possible there could be two four-person scumteams. But me and CJ aren't in either of them.

The chances of someone corroborating that they did nothing are pretty good.

Yes, but on the off-chance that I had claimed that Adrien wasn't a PR and he counter-claimed, I'd be lynched, and rightly so.

I keep having arguments with you, and of our three claims, you're the odd man out, but I'd still rather lynch someone I see as scummy as hell (mitsu) than a PR today.

[Sucrose]

Hey, guess what, guys? I PM'd the mod asking how a jailkeep would effect my ability, and I just got a PM back explaining that targeted actions would show up even if the player was role-blocked in any form. I'm guessing the mod considers a jailkeep to just be its essential abilities Roleblock + Protect.

I would be very happy with a Mitsu or Richard lynch today. Slight preference for Richard.

[Sucrose]

I just did a quick re-read of the last 4 pages in light of knowing that Q21 is telling the truth, and I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Asaclardy

. He's been super-opportunistic the entire game, eagerly Q21 at L-2, then unvoted with a "look at me I'm town" explanation when people started expressing doubts, and he never seems to have any original thoughts to back up his wagons.

Of course there's also this:

If we have PR info then we have PR info.

unvote, vote: q21

If q21 flips town, we can rest assured that CJMiller is the next scum, and probably a scum watcher if anything.

Generally, re-reading the last four pages, Chevre and SlySly come off as town, and Asaclardy, Richard, Foilest, and Mitsu look scummy as hell. It's unlikely all that of them can be scum, but I'll be shocked if 2 or 3 out of the 4 aren't.

[Sucrose]

I PM'd the mod asking how a jailkeep would effect my ability, and I just got a PM back explaining that targeted actions would show up even if the player was role-blocked in any form.

I find it hard to believe that the mod would confirm this for you in private while not confirming it for the rest of us. I'm not saying it didn't happen, but, if it did, I just don't see how the mod doing this for you is fair to the rest of us. Without mod confirmation for the rest of us, this has the air of 2 scum trying to pass off the same lie in attempts to appear as confirmed town.

Why is this hard to believe? I sent him a PM, he replied back. Send him a PM yourself if you like.

[Sucrose]

Unvote, Vote: Mitsuru

This is a good wagon.

[Sucrose]

Considering that Q21 got all the way up to L-1, I'm 99% percent sure he's not a scum roleblocker.

[Sucrose]

Doubt this helps, but: I targeted Adrien N1 cause I thought he was suspicious. I targeted Q21 N2 because I thought he was suspicious and I hadn't been reading the damn thread. I targeted Vezok cause I thought he was suspicious and he had claimed VT, so I could nail him if he moved.

N2 was really rather unfortunate because while it helped me confirm CJ's claim, it gave the two investigative power roles identical information.

[Sucrose]

Yeah, I would be happy with an Asaclardy lynch. I'm damn sure Mitsu is scum, though, and I don't think I'm going to budge from lynching one of those two today.

[Sucrose]

Vote: Richard

Nothing to do with my ability, I just think he's scum.

[Sucrose]

I didn't target anyone.

I've got 10 hours sleep for the last 5 days and in the light of RL for the past few days, I forgot to send in a night action.

Great, neither did I. Anyway, I still think Richard is probably scum, followed by Toon Fighter and Foilest.

Maybe Adrien too, but we've only got 1 scum PR flip per team so far and that bugs me. But maybe the scum PR's don't line up and there really was only a doctor and an Neighborizor for scum PRs. I don't really think Chevre or SlySly are scum, they've both been pretty town the whole game. Too bad Mitsu flipped town, I was so damn sure she was scum.

[Sucrose]

I could get behind a Toon Fighter lynch, though I think Richard's a little bit scummier.

[Sucrose]

I seriously thought I had another day until deadline, and I work second shift. It sucks, I'm sorry. Nothing I can do about it now.

[Sucrose]

Above is directed at sucrose.

Further, town do not slide in suspicions. You would openly declare it especially if it was a new suspicion as this one is. That is such a scum move it's not even funny. Suddenly, out of the blue, I am number 3 on your scum list with no explanation, no prior suspicion, and no attempt to convince anyone of my scumminess. That is textbook scum play.

unvote, vote: sucrose

If one of them's scum, it's sucrose.

I called you "scummy as hell" yesterday, after your posts on the Q21 wagon, specifically the post where you declared that we should lynch q21, and CJ and I would be guaranteed scum if he flipped town. Post #39 in my ISO. I didn't have much of a read either way on you before that.

[Sucrose]

You're missing another important thing, which is that Q21 got all the way up to L-1, very quickly, before the mod clarified the jailkeeper role. Q21 just isn't scum.

[Sucrose]

Unvote

Shit, forgot I still had my vote there.

[Sucrose]

Alright, I don't want the votes going back up while I'm asleep, and Sly seems to be lurking today, so....

Don't lynch Richard. Sly is scum, he killed CJ last night.

I do think it's a good guess Richard is Sly's partner, but we'll get to that later.

[Sucrose]

Yes, apologies, this was a probably a bad idea. I didn't want to make up a result on a player, so I claimed no result. I probably should have dropped the plan with Q21 didn't get his result in, because it did look really suspicious.

But I knew that I could get Sly lynched by the end of the day, so I thought I'd try and pull some more information out of the situation.
Anyway, if you don't believe me, I breadcrumbed it in my second post:

G

reat, neither did I.

A

nyway, I still think Richard is probably scum, followed by Toon Fighter and Foilest.

M

aybe Adrien too, but we've only got 1 scum PR flip per team so far and that bugs me.

B

ut maybe the scum PR's don't line up and there really was only a doctor and an Neighborizor for scum PRs.

I

don't really think Chevre or SlySly are scum, they've both been pretty town the whole game.

T

oo bad Mitsu flipped town, I was so damn sure she was scum.

[Sucrose]

I could be talked into lynching SlySly but I'd rather lynch Richard.

May I ask why? If SlySly flips anything but scum, you can lynch me.

[Sucrose]

Forgot.

Unvote, Vote: SlySly

[Sucrose]

Who did you target?

Personally I think you're scrambling to try and save yourself, but I'll hear you out.

[Sucrose]

CJ and Q21 claimed D2, I believe. I was outed D4. Despite being known PRs, none of us had any strange or inconsistent targeting results. Yet you say that you must have been targeted by a hypothetical re-director not once, but twice.

Nice effort, but not buying it.

[Sucrose]

Your serial killer theory makes a lot of sense. I don't think we have a Vig, and I'd be extremely distrustful of anyone who claims it in the last couple days. If Sly doesn't flip SK, I can see it as a role scum will fake-claim.

I'm probably gonna get killed tonight, so here's who I think are scummiest to least scummy:

Richard
Asaclardy
Toon Fighter
Foilest
Adrien
Kunkstar
David Parker
Chevre
Vezok
Q21

[Sucrose]

There's the hammer.