Mafia 45: Back to Gambits II - Game over!

[Thoth]

Just checking in to say I won't be posting much during Xmas.

Interesting wagon. Any game reason for it?

[Thoth]

Just checking in to say I won't be posting much during Xmas.

Interesting wagon. Any game reason for it?

claim?

Hehe, funny guy. I never claim because of a random day 1 wagon. Not planning to start now.

[Thoth]

this wagon is not random, guy.

You seemed to say something different here:

It's D1, that's enough for me , guy.

[Thoth]

I basically agree with Cadmium here. If we're going to do the mass claim thing then please replace me.

[Thoth]

I don't really see the case against PJ.

I'm much more suspicious of PB. The way he tried to reinforce my bandwagon when it was dying and for a nonreason to boot seems rather suspicious to me.

vote:PeaceBringer

[Thoth]

I'm thinking vigging both in consecutive nights becomes rather attractive. It saves us lynches and worries when they remain alive. Also gives a good Bookie target.

[Thoth]

Why would we waste our onetime daykill now? To get a confirmed townie?
This plan sounds like total crap to me.

And why should the sorceror protect a revealed mayor? So scum can try to get a power role? The execution is irrevocable (or at least that's what I get from reading the description.

MOD: Could you clarify what happens if the mayor dies the night after announcing an execution?

)

[Thoth]

Also, Puzzle, I think Thoth has a good point: we clear our mayor, but the wolves can just kill our mayor since the sorcerer is protecting the guy we just executed. So we gain nothing.

You may want to read my post again. This is not what I was saying.

I think PJ should definitively be vigged. I cannot imagine him being Judas after the counterclaim. I changed my mind on Speedy. If PJ shows up as scum we can probably let Speedy live as it's unlikely he would make this counterclaim if he were scum or Saulus. He could stil be a werewolf, knowing that Ranger was Judas, but that is a really unlikely scenario.

[Thoth]

I don't agree with Puzzle's post 100%, but it got me convinced to go along with the mayor execution.

- PJ turns up Judas : we lynch SpeedyKQ and he's 100% confirmed townie if he survives, which means scums have to nightkill him at some point instead of going for a power role, for example.

This I don't agree with. If PJ turns up Judas we should vig SpeedyKQ. Lynching him costs us a lynch and gives scum 2 extra kills. Unless both target Speedy in the same night we loose out on this.
Of course if Speedy is not vigged (which probably means we lost the vig) we lynch him the day after that.

(*) : A resurrection of RotN has as many chances to bring back a vampire as to bring back Saulus. I advise against it and would rather resurrect confirmed non-vampires along the game.

I think resurrection attempts should wait until we have at least 4 nonscum to choose from anyhow. Otherwise the scum gets a free high percentage shot to kill the Archangel/sorceror.

I agree now with the mayor executing PJ and waiting for the result before deciding about Speedy.

I don't think the vig should kill tonight. We have a lot of information from this day and will get a lot more tomorrow from the execution (which will likely result in Saulus' conversion or a scumkill). We also have a dead scum from N1, so we're well ahead of schedule. Good way to screw it up would be to start vigging.

[Thoth]

It seems to me that Speedy is getting mayorkilled, and not PJ currently.

Why would we suddenly mayorkill Speedy. That makes little to no sense in my opinion. Why would Speedy counterclaim unless he was the real Judas. Only good reason would be if he knew ranger to be the real Judas.
If he's scum he just managed to get himself killed. If he's Saulus he almost certainly got himself vigged by this counterclaim.

[Thoth]

- PJ turns up Judas : we lynch SpeedyKQ and he's 100% confirmed townie if he survives, which means scums have to nightkill him at some point instead of going for a power role, for example.

This I don't agree with. If PJ turns up Judas we should vig SpeedyKQ. Lynching him costs us a lynch and gives scum 2 extra kills. Unless both target Speedy in the same night we loose out on this.
Of course if Speedy is not vigged (which probably means we lost the vig) we lynch him the day after that.

Why ?
In this case, SpeedyKQ is sure not Judas. Therefore, either he is Saulus and lynching him gives us a 100% confirmed townie that scums HAVE to kill, or the lynch gets rid of whatever scum he is.

If he's scum we get an extra lynch by using the vig.
If he's Saulus we get an extra townie, but the day we use to lynch him gives scum an extra night with 2 kills. Netting us at -1.

A vig may leave the vampire to come back at the worst possible moment, near the end.

This is true, but I don't believe Speedy is the vampire. To make this play it requires that he convinces the town to lynch PJ (which is odds-on as usually the counterclaimer is the real one). Then he needs to get vigged after which an endgame situation has to arise where he can succesfully resurrect (knowing that the town knows he's the vampire.)

Edited by Mr Stoofer to fix tags.

[Thoth]

@Puzzle- so if we execute PJ and he turns up Saulus, then we vig Speedy (Judas or scum)? If he turns up Judas then we lynch Speedy tomorrow (Saulus or scum)? I am just trying to wrap my mind around the situation here.

If we execute someone we'll only see the results tomorrow. So we can't plan for a vig-kill tonight as the results are not there yet.

[Thoth]

Plan

Vig: PJ
Nothing: Speedy
Lynch: Thok

Mayorkill: Save it for someone else.

That's unlikely to happen as our Mayor (or should I say maior ) seems to agree with the majority to use it today.

[Thoth]

I see lots of discussion but little sign of a consensus emerging. Would a deadline help you all to decide what to do?

Why would you want to put on a deadline when there's discussion? I personally enjoy long day 1's with lots of discussion.

[Thoth]

Uhm, you sure you checked the location? Barning would be schuren in my language, which is very unpleasant when wearing a string

Makes for that 'burning' feeling

[Thoth]

2. Sorting out the Judas/Saulus situation - I think we can reasonably assume that exactly one of Speedy and PJ is scum. Determining which is going to mean resolving a WIFOM argument, executing one and getting the result to determine what to do with the other, or letting the wolves sort it out for us (at some point they need to kill Saulus too...). Talking this through, I now am on board with the execution option. It appears that's the only way we get a concrete result without double lynching one of the two... If the mayor wishes to execute, I'd suggest he choose which to execute, and we take appropriate action on the remaining one.

The 'Maior' already executed Speedy a few posts above yours.

Thoth - I would like to know his alignment relatively soon. With Babyjesus targetting him early, and several players quietly protecting him, I think his ID could give us a lot of information to work with.

You do know that BJ already targeted me in the sign-up thread before we even got roles?

Further, if you guys want to Vig me (ala Green Crayon's plan) that's fine: I'm not a power role of any sort (in fact my only ability is to turn evil, tsk) and you could certainly Vig a lot worse if you are overly concerned, and you should be able to get a resurrection out of the Bookie to boot. If you're still worried about me being Saulus (which could only mean that scum wasted a kill on SpeedyKQ this next night simply to protect his identity)

then I would suggest the Governer investigate me tonight and you can lynch me tomorrow to guarantee that I will be pro-town.

Whatever the town wants to do with me is fine: it looks like the town has gotten rid of the Judas/Saulus problem done on Day 1, whereas last Gambits Mafia Saulus was able to stay hidden until the very end.

Any investigation of PJ tonight would be a very bad idea in my opinion. If Speedy turns up as Judas it means a wasted investigation and we can safely vig you next night (or lynch the next day if the vig is dead already).
If Speedy turns up as Saulus or Vampire there's not that much reason to investigate PJ as Speedy then had a legitimate reason to get himself killed. Still possible of course that ranger was Judas, but not the most likely scenario in my opinion.
If Speedy turns up as Werewolf the only reasonable scenario would be Ranger = Judas, PJ = mafia and Speedy counterclaimed knowing PJ made a false claim.
If Speedy turns up as mafia/protown I hope he's not on my side too often in future games. (Unless he's an investigator now, targeted PJ last night and hoped to hide himself from scum this way. That would have been a nice play in my opinion, eventhough it didn't work this time)

[Thoth]

How does the Mayor execute someone?

The Mayor must post Execute: Player (bolded) in the thread. Nothing will happen at that time. The day will continue and the player will be executed that night. So any other player could claim to be the Mayor as well.

[Thoth]

I think we should put pressure on Green_crayons. His assumption that I had instructions in my PM Im very uneasy with.

I really don't see what's wrong with that. He clearly didn't read/remember the clarifications.

[Thoth]

4th deadline extension of course.

Let's do a little recap here as it seems multiple players are not aware of what is going on. This could be especially hurtful if one of the stronger roles, especially the vig is one of those.

1. PJ claimed Judas, SpeedyKQ counterclaimed.

2. VisMaior claimed Mayor and

ordered the execution of SpeedyKQ.

3. For those not reading the rules: This means that SpeedyKQ will die tomorrow morning and his role will be revealed, giving the town lots of info.

Do not vig SpeedyKQ

4. Olio claimed mason. Unvote him please.

5. All kinds of things that I missed etc.

unvote:PB

My vote on PB does not seem to be that useful as few others are willing to go with it.

I'm close to voting either armlx or CA. Both just tried to convince the vig in their last post to take a serious anti-town action. I'm not sure yet though whether that was on purpose or just bad play.

I also don't like the GC wagon as it seems like he adequately defended himself. I could live with an Ibaesha lynch.

[Thoth]

I'd favour an armlx lynch over an ibaesha lynch as well. Prefer an Ibaesha lynch over no lynch of course, but there's little threat of a no lynch now.

vote:armlx

[Thoth]

At least we know that Speedy was one of four roles: Judas, Saulus, Vampire, cop.

I think it's most likely that he was telling the truth and actually was Judas. Saulus and Vampire I just find very unlikely as he would probably have played these roles in a different way. Cop with a guilt on PJ is possible as well, but leaves us with the same result: PetroleumJelly must die. We just have to decide in which way we want him to go.

I'm personally in favour of the vig getting him. That way we have a good bookie target and today won't be wasted.

[Thoth]

Agreed on the vigging of PJ, unless he claims Saulus before the end of the day.

I'd want to vig him even if he claims Saulus. Otherwise he can freely claim that if he's scum.

[Thoth]

CA...are you confusing Thoth and Thok? Or am I missing something? Because you were voting for Thok for a long time yesterday...

Thok died last night and was not scum, giving extra weight to his comments.

[Thoth]

Did anyone ever check this table that was put up? I voted for 2 players yesterday. Peacebringer and armlx.

vote:Cadmium

I would expect him to actually check info like this before voting for it.

[Thoth]

That's what he would have found out for himself had he taken the time to actually read everything. It's what I mentioned twice in my previous posts.

Apparently he did not read everything, yet he did find it necesarry to immediately react with a countervote. That's enough for me to keep my vote where it is.

True, it was 5PM and just quickly checked scum before leaving home from work. Saw several votes and wanted to reply then as I was not home yesterday, so basically only quickly skimmed the new page. I don't see why that would make me scum. As scum I would even be more worried about making a mistake and might have waited with posting until today.

Why are you singling out Cadmium? If you don't like the table, I would expect you to vote the table-maker, DrippingGoofball. (BTW, the table is only for bandwagons and is correct, I think).

I can see someone making a mistake in creating a table. I cannot see Cadmium voting based on it without checking the facts for himself. I don't know the other voters well enough to know this about them.
And I was of course wrong about Cadmium as he apparently did check it and posted it in a post I missed.


FWIW I don't see why I would be scum based on that table. It's just the way I play. I very rarely vote. Only when I'm convinced someone is scum (and then rarely remove that vote) or when a deadline is coming up. Cadmium says he studied my behaviour in other games, so maybe he can elaborate about this.

[Thoth]

If you don't see why that would make you look scummy, then could you please remind me why your vote's on me (even if you imagine your point actually being true)?

Hmm, mainly because I forgot to unvote. It's not something I do often

unvote:Cadmium

I cannot see Cadmium voting based on it without checking the facts for himself.

The same way I cannot see you voting for someone after only quickly skimming the new posts?

I agree that it's not a common thing for me to do. Just saw an inconsistency between the post in which you voted and your regular behaviour. Missing that you already covered that in a previous posting was a mistake of course.
I posted quickly because I did not want to wait another day before posting. These type of bandwagons have a tendency to go fast and reach the point where people stay on in in spite of good counter arguments.

[Thoth]

How about we go after PeaceBringer today for not participating (read blatant bandwagoning without any comment whatsoever)? Would there be enough voters for this idea?

I already wanted to get him day 1 when he did participate a little.

[Thoth]

Sorry for not posting yet. I've been sick for the last couple of days. Still need to read this complete day, but that will probably be on Monday.

[Thoth]

I'm in favour of resurrecting ROTN. Speedy is almost certainly Judas and safe to resurrect (unless he's Vampire and ROTN is Judas). We gain a basic townie that way.
ROTN could be vampire, but he could also be one of our power roles. If so resurrecting him would help the town a lot more than resurrecting SpeedyKQ. If he's vampire he'll come back to life anyhow at a point where he'll be a problem. Resurrecting him now may let the mafia solve the vampire problem for us.

I'd like to see where the masons lead us. Also, I don't like GC's stance towards PJ Day One. He FOS'ed him once and didn't really comment on PJ other than "I find him suspicious."

Your first sentence puts faith in a role, not the people behind that role. Those roles are not investigative nor can they recruit, so, as a role, they are only slightly better at leading, only in the sense that they are sure of two other living player's innocence. Just faulty logic. The latter half of your statement seems to be implying that I should have known, amongst the many numbers of other active players, to focus my attention on PJ alongside the extensive discussion of PM format. ...That's realistic.

I was not drawn that much to the GC wagon until Vitamin's post and GC's response. I'm interested to hear more from GC why it's unrealistic to focus attention on someone that claimed and was counterclaimed. At that point it was certain that one of the claimers was going to die and the way it went now not enough people managed to convince VisMaior that he really needed to kill PJ.

[Thoth]

Wouldn't you and your scum buddies like to know.

[Thoth]

I'm starting to think SpeedyKQ could have been vampire. And if Thoth wasn't Saulus, why doesn't he just say it?

I also want names from Green Crayons. We might want to lynch him after that.

Maybe read what Puzzle had to say about this. There's no benefit for the town to tell this and it could seriously hurt.

And why would you want to lynch GC when there's not been that much against him, but he did claim Angel?

[Thoth]

ok, just typed out a response why CA's claim was false, but then I saw that the governor role changed between this game and the previous one, making my line of reasoning obsolete.

If CA's claim is true then we have a lot of know townies/roles. I'll try to make a list here:

armlx - not mafia acc to claimed angel
Astronaut - not mafia acc to claimed angel
Cadmium
Commodore Amazing - Governor
DrippingGoofball - Bookie
Fritzler - mason
Green Crayons - Angel
HezLucky - not mafia acc to claimed angel
Lloyd replacing Iammars
Monty replacing Mastermind of Sin
olio - mason
Peacebringer - basic townie
Puzzle - mason
Thoth Saulus
VisMaior Mayor
VitaminR replacing Coron


I'm probably missing something here, so if someone could add stuff I overlooked it would be helpful.


I was thinking about VisM not being the mayor as someone else said on the previous page as this would be the most logical explanation for killing SpeedyKQ. It's unlikely though as that would require him to be werewolf and Ranger be the mayor. Then risking this early claim to save PJ (who was mafia) for 1 extra day seems really strange.

One new point

: I'm now in favour of resurrecting one of the players that died last night. With the new claims (mainly the Angel and the Governor claims) that came out after we basically decided to resurrect Ranger I think it's unlikely that scum would have claimed his role.

Resurrecting Ranger has the advantage of eliminating all doubts about VisMaior and SpeedyKQ, but those doubts all involve rather unlikely scenarios.
Resurrecting say elvis_knits has the advantage of possibly catching scum in a false claim. Next to that there's the extra chance of him being the vig (as the vig was alive last night to kill, but could have been killed himself as well)

[Thoth]

I'm the governor. As long as I am alive, if we lynch Green Crayons ("investigated" night two) or Thoth ("investigated" night three), they will survive the lynch if they are pro-town. elvis_knits was my target night one.

I did not choose to save ibaesha or Thoth.

Thoth is either Judas or Saulus.

Am I missing something here? You say you investigated Thoth and didn't save him so if he is pro-town, our last lynch failed because of your investigation. How can you be so sure that Thoth is either Judas or Saulus?

Bolded for olio's convenience

[Thoth]

Yes, that's bothering me a little as well. Investigating me when he's the governor makes absolutely no sense. That's one of the reasons why I want someone from last night to be resurrected as the one most likely to be caught in a false claim is CA.

@olio: Please read the governor role again.

[Thoth]

And I shall resurrect Ranger.

It's getting dark, where's my Teddy bear?

What's the advantage of Ranger over elvis_knits?

I'd prefer elvis for the following reasons:

1. We'd basically agreed to resurrect Ranger when we got the Angel and Governor claims, making it very unlikely that they claimed Ranger's role.

2. If the vig died last night it sure wasn't ranger, but could be elvis.

3. If we're resurrecting an investigator then elvis has more results.


I also think that whomever we resurrect should claim during the day as one scumgroup already knows who he is, so there's little benefit in keeping it hidden. We don't want him to die the next night without giving us that info.

[Thoth]

vote:PeaceBringer

[Thoth]

I'd also like to see an Elvis claim. If she's not the vig then it's almost certainly AcesWild unless the vig missed a nightchoice or chose not to use it. With a bookie result based on it the latter is unlikely.

[Thoth]

Can we wait with more votes until everyone has had the chance to check in, particularly elvis_knits and Loydd.

[Thoth]

Why on earth would E_K lie?

She could in theory still be the vampire. I don't know if she would have the chance to talk to the other werewolves last night, but if so she would know of some safe claims. If not she could still have made a risky guess. A ressurrection would remove the remaining doubt, but is risky in that she might die if the werewolves guess correct.

I agree with lynching Lloyd of course, confirming some more players or killing scum. Did every unclaimed player already check in after the e_k claim? Just in case someone wants to counterclaim.

[Thoth]

Sounds good:

vote:GC

[Thoth]

Thanks for modding this one Stooofer.

Now up for the 3rd one. Maybe I'll get another role than Judas/Saulus then