Mafia 47: Kingmaker - Game over!

[Thok]

As a polite observation, I'll point out that complaining about the possiblity of who currently is king or who could be the king is a at least a weak tell that you are not currently the kingmaker. Since it's probably a good idea to hide the identity of kingmaker from scum (so that they can't replace a kingmaker with good judgement by a kingmaker with not so good judgement), I appreciate it if people stop complaining about the identity of the king. After all, it isn't like this is a democracy.

(Offers a tithe of the best of his crop to tss, as well as his first born calf.)

[Thok]

C-C-C-C-O-M-B-O BREAKER!!

Seriously, you two, this argument is getting boring. We realize that you two are suspicious of each other, OK?

@Fuldu-does it strike you as more scummy or less scummy that N_lich misspelled assassins in his post, given that BMQ spelled it correctly on the front post?

I would not be completely opposed to having Fritzler be king tomorrow; I suspect that it might be better than some alternatives. After all, he was useful in Bad Idea from what I can tell, even if he did contribute to the shortest Day 1 ever.

[Thok]

I believe I should clarify my position: of course the Hero is welcome to convince us of his innocence just like any other role, w/o claiming. And of course the Hero is welcome to claim to save his own life, if he thinks it'll help.

I think you're misunderstanding how somebody would play the Hero role-he wouldn't be claiming to save his own life, but rather the king's.

I can't tell if that is deliberate misunderstanding or just somebody who hasn't read the front page, but I will

vote Alexander

[Thok]

(Insert explative here) Did you people ever stop to think that if you don't believe my claim as town, then the scum might not believe my claim of vanilla? I guess that gambit is blown now, isn't it?

That gambit is almost never good for town; so much so that "Lynch all Liars" is basically considered a given.

Vote RandomActs

, I know you know better than to try this.

[Thok]

I like the idea of a list of execution (with the additional proviso that scum can add or subtract people from the list). Other than that, I'm willing to give the king a reasonable amount of leniancy.

[Thok]

Well, I don't think we agreed on "forced" executions, but I will put RandomActs past the threshhold of 66%.

Vote: Random Acts

, although I'm still liking my vote on Broomhead. I keep forgetting I can be a little more free with my vote in this game.

I am looking forward to RA's explanation for his "gambit".

Is there really any point to this post? It's not like the 66% number actually means anything. I'm going to add a

vote petroleumjelly

; if this was a normal game I'd be suspicious of somebody who put a late vote on an obvious scum, and PJ's post has the same sort of feel to it.

Taking a look over PJ's posts, it also bothers me that he seems more interested in limiting the king's power than in hunting for scum.

[Thok]

In addition to the issues already brought up, another flaw of the plan is that reveals who is the kingmaker, which is good for scum. For example, if scum know who the kingmaker is, it's much easier for them to try to convince the kingmaker to pick kings who are beneficial to them, or to kill off a kingmaker that is making good choices for town.

I will add a

vote Yosarian2

.

[Thok]

The first point makes sense, the second point doesn't. If there are three masons, then how would EXPOSING them help? If we KNOW there are three masons, no scum is dumb enough to claim the third mason. The only way to catch scum is if we didn't know if there were 2 or more and we hope that a scum claims mason AND that there actually is a third mason.

Where was Twomz asking for the third mason to identify himself? As far as I know, he was only asking for Glork to reveal the size of the mason group.

[Thok]

I'm going to

vote N_lich, mysterymeatofdoom, and broomhead

. These are three of the four living people who voted RA after he claimed vanilla but before he claimed "possibly not vanilla"; that's the time period where I think scum would jump on RA's bandwagon but town wouldn't. (Before the vanilla claim there wasn't a bandwagon; after the "not vanilla" LAL applies and at that pont most of town voted for RA). I've excluded the fourth person (elvis_knits) because it felt like she had a reason for her vote, unlike the other three.

[Thok]

Broomhead, looking over the posts in that period, your response to my worry holds up. I think I'll

unvote Broomhead

; of the three I voted today, I think I prefer an n_lich execution.

[Thok]

My other reasons for focusing on n_lich are that he hasn't really said much, and there was that scum tell that Fuldu noticed yesterday (using assassins rather than scum).

None of these are strong scum tells, but there are a nontrivial number of them.

[Thok]

If you want to be looking at potential slips of the tongue regarding what people have said, look at n_lich's post. Even though it's in the opening posts and whatall, his identification of the villains as "assassins" rather than "scum" like everybody else moves him up the list, in my book. Regardless of how deliberately and obviously the mod describes the scum, pro-town players are far more likely to identify them generically (as everyone else has, so far as I can see), whereas scum tend to self-identify (internally, obviously not publicly) with the descriptive term the mod uses, and are thus more likely to be the ones that use it when talking about 'the bad guys'.

It's not a strong indicator, since, as I said, all the information is right there in several of the mod's first posts, as well as in everyone's role PMs. But it's the sort of distinct usage that's more likely to be used by scum than town.

[Thok]

unvote nlich, confirm vote mystery meat of doom

[Thok]

I would clearly prefer an n_lich lynch to a Fritzler lynch, but there are probably better options than either today.

[Thok]

Fritzler, I want you to explain to me, in detail, why you think that N_Lich is a poor play. I also want you to name the two top suspects you have with explanations as to why I should execute them.

As far as I can tell, there are only two possible reasons for Fritzler's play. I can't decide which one is the correct explanation, but I think we can afford to postpone thinking about n_Lich for a day.

[Thok]

Erm, i believe you've been replaced N_Lich...

Um, no he hasn't.

Glork, I'll repeat what I've said today; I don't think n_lich or Fritzler are the best lynch today, but n_lich is

clearly

better than Fritzler.

If you must execute Fritzler, give him a chance to make a long post first.

[Thok]

Thank you Fuldu. 8) You've just summarized what I (and I assume petroleumjelly) have been thinking. (Well, except for the Norse Myth thing).

[joke]Of course, now I'll be silly when fuldu turns out to be scum.[/joke]

[Thok]

I believe broomhead will die too... we just like the "hero" so much we go and off the king as well. So 1 doesn't work the way you think it does.

The sample Hero PM on the first page specifically says that the Hero will be spared.

[Thok]

OK, what game did you think you posted in Vaughn?

[Thok]

VitaminR, since you've implicitly mentioned this by quoting your post-my jumping on MMOD was partially because he was the last person on my list of three potential scum who hadn't been "cleared" at that point in my mind. (It was partially because of the implications of his reactions to broomhead's claim also; remember at that point I also knew that Fritz was likely to be claiming cop).

I need to do a reread of the thread before I give my top candidates; unfortunately this probably won't come until Saturday at the earliest.

As a side comment, I sort of want to do a reread just focusing on Fuldu. To be fair, this isn't because he's done anything scummy yet, but rather because he's been in position to influence the kings (which is in scum's interest), and I know that if he's scum he won't give off that many scum tells and that frightens me to no end. At some point we should start deciding whether we have a "stupid" scum group or a "smart" scum group.

The above paragraph, of course, may just be me worrying just to worry.

[Thok]

OK, so I now know what level of blather to expect from LML in this game.

[Thok]

Nope. Just an observation.

If you want to get on my case for trying to kill off a possible tell that (in my mind) will only help scum figure out roles, go ahead. If the Kingmaker was clever enough to think about complaining about his choice of King, more power to him; in that case my comment helps him in hiding his identity by encouraging scum to rule him out as a kingmaker.

And you know it is conceivable that I am the kingmaker, and the request was an attempt to get people to protect my identity.

(Please note that the previous sentence is SPECIFICALLY meant to be a hypothetical, and is not meant to be a claim that I am the kingmaker. I may be a kingmaker, I may not be. Just as easily I could be any other role.)

LML, if you were anybody else, I would vote you for misinterpreting that post.

[Thok]

LML, if you were anybody else, I would vote you for misinterpreting that post.

Why the special treatment?

Knowledge of his playstyle-I know from experience that LML will act like that independent of whether he is scum or town. It's the same reason I wouldn't jump on Fritzler or BJ for bandwagoning day 1.

[Thok]

Yosarian2, you do realize that Fritzler has claimed an investigation on n_lich, correct?

I mean it's possible that n_lich and Fritz are in fact both scum, but I'm not going to push the matter for the moment.

I suspect I know why LML isn't king today; I am choosing not to discuss the matter. This may or may not involve me being the Kingmaker.

I want to take a look at those offering advice to the king the last few days; I suspect that will give me the best insight into who would be a good suggestion for the king to kill.

[Thok]

Vote Mystery Meat of Doom, The Silent Speaker

, both for fishing for information (MMOD was also getting my vote yesterday too).

FOS PetroleumJelly

for beginning the speculation on the motives of the KingMaker, who we know to be pro-town. This is only an FOS because I feel like it's more likely absent-minded play than scummy play.

[Thok]

I did the whole "make vague hints about knowledge that you deduced that other people haven't figured out yet" yesterday with Fritzler. I'm not in the mood to try that again today. I won't be saying anything about my reasoning on this matter for the next couple of days. I'm tempted to send a PM to the Son of Cheese, in order to have a verified record of my thoughts for the post-mortem.

I would still like somebody to explain to me how trying to analyze the Kingmaker's choices helps town or hurts scum; it is clear to me that such speculation could help scum.

[Thok]

well, you're not going to execute yourself, so im not voting you

You know, now I want a mod ruling on what happens if the Hero tries to execute himself. According to the way the role is phrased, the people will rise to kill the Hero, thus saving the Hero's life.

(Probably the solution is to ban people from executing themselves, but what fun is that).

[Thok]

I feel like I should be paying attention more to this game; I feel like I'm only using bringing my B- game at the moment.

Given that votes don't mean anything, I'd like to make a suggestion to Brian that we be allowed to weight our votes: a vote with higher weight would be worth more. For example, while I find TSS and MMOD suspicious, I find MMOD a better choice for a lynch today, so I will:

Double Vote MMOD

(Waits for somebody to vote me pi times).

[Thok]

I personally prefer a MMOD execution, although I can see the logic of a TSS execution.

But, it's your decision to make Broomhead; it's not like this is a democracy.

[Thok]

Posts just to say hi.

Confirmed:
Glork (mason), LML (twomz investigated), n_lich(twomz investigated).

Does anybody want me to reveal my thoughts from yesterday (that is the strange comments I was making at the start of the day amount why LML wasn't king?) Given that it seems like we either don't have any power roles left (no vigs have killed, the masons and hero seem to have already been found, both cops are dead, and we either don't have a doc or he's completely incompetent), I don't think any harm can come from this comment.

[Thok]

Since it seems to be a matter of speculation, should I reveal whether or not I am the kingmaker? Or should I keep silent on the subject?

[Thok]

LML, if you think I am scum, what benefit do you think I get from trying to convince people that I am the kingmaker? With the number of confirmed innocents we currently have, it's easy to confirm a kingmaker claim.

Also, do you think the people who think I am kingmaker (other than yourself) are more likely to be scum or town (feel free to make cases based off of whether you expect me to be townie/scum/power role/kingmaker).

[Thok]

Well, LML will have some words for me at the end of the game (and Iwill equally have some words for him). I'm not the Kingmaker.

Among other things, if I was the kingmaker, why would I have wanted to send a PM to our mod to explain what I was thinking yesterday?

So, I'll repeat my question, but rephrase it in a different way. It seems conceivable to me that some of the people who are pushing the "Thok is the kingmaker" theory are scum who discussed this last night. This obviously doesn't apply to LML, but I think it could possibly apply to others. Though maybe I'm wrong and I've just confused everybody with my play.

[Thok]

I did the whole "make vague hints about knowledge that you deduced that other people haven't figured out yet" yesterday with Fritzler. I'm not in the mood to try that again today. I won't be saying anything about my reasoning on this matter for the next couple of days. I'm tempted to send a PM to the Son of Cheese, in order to have a verified record of my thoughts for the post-mortem.

I would still like somebody to explain to me how trying to analyze the Kingmaker's choices helps town or hurts scum; it is clear to me that such speculation could help scum.

Since I feel like it will be useful-the information that I PM'ed to Brian was who I thought was the Kingmaker. I haven't seen any information since then that suggests to me that my guess is wrong and there's a lot of evidence that my guess is right. If I was scum I would have mentioned this guess to my scum group at night.

[Thok]

Fine. Vanilla townie.

[Thok]

Hum. I'm still digesting PJ's post.


While I'm at it, though, I do have one follow-up question for Thok: What *WERE* your thoughts from yesterday? Why do you think the Kingmaker chose Broomhead over LmL or Fritzler? Don't pull names, and don't insinuate who you think Kingmaker might be. But explain your thoughts, please.

I don't know why the Kingmaker didn't chose Fritzler; perhaps he just didn't trust him. Fritzler had been campaigning for the position day 1 and there are some that find him reckless and impulsive. I can't say more about your question with the constraints you've given me.

I will point out a flaw in PJ's argument-he is claiming that I would choose an experienced player day 1 and then that I would choose an inexperienced player day 3. (There's a secondary flaw, in that I tend to make early game choices somewhat randomly, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't pick TSS, just that I am less likely to.)

I also apologize for not having made time for a massive reread of the game-I really need to do that and I will try to do so tomorrow night.

[Thok]

Apologies-reread will have to wait until at least tomorrow.

[Thok]

Curious. That completely contradicts any theory I had on who the Kingmaker is. I had thought that LML wasn't made King day 2 becuase

he

was Kingmaker. You know, Ockham's Razor and all that.

[Thok]

My thoughts on people right now.

broomhead-I can't decide whether or not he is scum brazenly trying to take advantage of a hero claim, protown with bad instincts. Looks really scummy, even today. (But must be careful of OMGUS).
elvis_knits-I don't really see the case aginst her and I'd like to see it laid out
Fuldu-Pushed the N_lich scum tell early, and hasn't really said much (although he has been busy)
*LoudmothLee* (rep. Chamber) -Confirmed Protown
mystery meat of doom-VitaminR makes a good point about him unlikely being scum given Amelia and PJ's attack on him.
N_lich -Confirmed Protown, but I'd like to see more participation from him
Shamrock (rep. mon_s237)-One of the early people to focus on Amelia. Also, given PJ's posts, I think that scum may have talked a lot at the beginning of the game, and I think mon would have been replaced sooner than he was if this was the case. (But I quite certainly could be wrong about this).
Thok-It's a me, Thokio!
Vaughn-Really scummy, and I'd have no problems with him being today's lynch. Lurking despite the fact that he doesn't like it when other people lurk.
VitaminR-While not confirmed, he seems like the most protown of the players not yet confirmed, and he's been doing a good job of picking out scum in my opinion.
Yosarian2-He bothers me somewhat. If you ask me to go into more details I will.

If I were making a list of people to execute, I believe it would be broomhead, Fuldu, vaughn, and Yosarian2. Of those I'd probably put Vaughn highest on my needs to be executed list.

vote Vaughn, broomhead, Fuldu, Yosarian2

[Thok]

Hmm, doing a bit more of a careful reread, I don't find the case for Yosarian to be as convincing as I thought it might be.

unvote Yosarian2

Vaughn really needs to be forced to post more-his vote on n_lich after Fritzler claimed (and his convoluted reasoning for explaining his vote) strikes me as typical Vaughnscum behavior. Just hearing him post will likely give us some feel for his alignment.

I find it curious that the person who aked for mon (Shamrock's predecessor) to be replaced was Ameliaslay.

@broomhead-While you are the only hero, it's possible that we don't have a hero in the game and that you've sucessfully made a fake claim. It's interesting to me that you've continued to act in what I consider a scummy way even after your claimed reasons for being scummy (to try and get a scum king to kill you). I don't believe it's worth risking LML's neck on you, but I'm willing to promise that if I'm made king at some later date, then I'd be willing to test your hero claim.

[Thok]

Edit by way of post-instead of "the only hero", I meant "the only claimed hero".

[Thok]

Rosso Carne-I received plenty of marks yesterday. Also broomhead gave me a mark today (although he later removed it).

Situations change-the major source of controversy for me yesterday is that people thought I was trying to set up a kingmaker claim when in fact I thought that chamber/LML/rosso carne was the kingmaker. It's hard for me to make a defense when I was specifically trying to avoid revealling the main fact that was part of my defense (my suspicions on who the Kingmaker is).

In fact, I must offer a thank you to the Kingmaker, for freeing me from my mistaken belief and easing my burden.

If you wish to complain about my marks, then fine, but give me credit for attacking PJ fairly early on also (I attacked him day 1, for example). Remember also that certain people are getting lots of marks because they

are

scummy.

If you'd wish for me to explain something specific, I will, but you've given little for me to debate. (In fact, I think you've given very little for lots of people to debate-I, and I think much of town, would appreciate it if you gave more details on why you have suspicions of the people you do, and what concerns specifically you want us to address).

[Thok]

Most of your points about me are reasonable observations (I was wondering when somebody would notice my typo of writing scum rather than town earlier), but one I can't let pass by.

my jumping on MMOD was partially because he was the last person on my list of three potential scum who hadn't been "cleared" at that point in my mind

remember at that point I also knew that Fritz was likely to be claiming cop

These are lies or misrecollections, I think. He was still drawing attention to Fritzler and n_lich at this point:

then I would clearly prefer an n_lich lynch to a Fritzler lynch(447)

The vote was 427, then 447, and his lies came at 582. If in your mind Fritzler's a cop, you don't draw more attention to him and his confirmed innocent in 447.

At that point Nlich and Fritz were under attention anyways, and while I knew that Fritzler was likely to be "claiming" cop, I didn't know that he was a cop-he could have been scum false claiming at the time. It was quite possible at that time that Fritz was scum buddy's with Nlich. In any case it was certainly true that an NLich lynch was better than a Fritzler lynch.

You also omitted a critical part of 447, which was the "there are likely better options", which says that I'd prefer looking at other people. (Something that Fritzler used when he reposted my quote in 448). If you are going to use my posts against me, use

all

of my posts, and read it in context.

[Thok]

Where's Vaughn?

[Thok]

Bump. Any more thoughts King Rosso, or MrBuddyLee (or anybody else for that manner)?

[Thok]

I'm King? That's surprising to me. (This at least proves that I'm not the Kingmaker.)

I would very much like to here people's opinions, as I feel that my scumdar has been off for much of this game.

I will also place the Royal Finger on Vaughn and Shamrock, as I am both suspicious of them and I would like to hear some participation from them. Vaughn in particular should be prodded, and then prodded again, and then possibly replaced if he does not list his thoughts on current events in this game (who does he find suspicious, and what has he thought of various events in the game).

Other people that worry me are Broomhead and Fuldu. Rosso Carne is known to be protown, and I see compelling arguments for the protowness of VitaminR, Yosarian2, and mystery meat of doom.

I also realize that you, as a town, have no reason to trust me; however I will try to be a good king.

Let's get posting!

[Thok]

Shamrock-Who do you think it scum, and why shouldn't I execute you?

VitaminR-Why 2 (as opposed to possibly 1 or 3)?

[Thok]

I would appreciate it if prods were sent out to make sure that all know that it is now day and that I would appreciate discussion from my subjects.

[Thok]

I am displeased with Vaughn for not asking for a replacement earlier.

I leave the decision as to whether you should claim or not up to you Vaughn. But I do wish to explain your reasoning for your decision to claim or not, no matter what you choose to do; I feel that I and town will gain more from seeing your reaction to being forced to make a decision than I would gain from a claim.

I also want to hear any thoughts you have on who might be scum. I am a patient king, and I am willing to give you some time (say 3 days, which is probably more than you deserve) to reassess the thread; alternatively, if you truly need a replacement (and given your current record, I strongly suggest ceding your place to a more active participant) I will offer the same amount of time to that person. But as I say, I find it worrisome that not only have you been unable to contribute, but that you have no ideas or theories to offer.

[Thok]

Vaughn has roughly 2 days left to respond to my requests. I consider this a maximum time limit and not a minimum-I am holding your slowness in either responding to my request or asking for a replacement will be seen as a further sign of scumminess. I am also aware of some of your appearances in Scumchat and I feel that such time could (and possibly should) be spent responding to your accusations here.

[Thok]

I would like to know about your general lack of participation. I would also like to know what you think of various players in the game, and what player or players you feel is likely to be scum.

[Thok]

Surely the fact the Elvis_knits is an assassin must have affected your thinking in some manner, as you didn't think she was scummy before.

[Thok]

VitaminR-I appreciate the reference to Webcomic Mafia.

Vaughn-I asked you to justify your decision to either claim or not claim; indeed, I find your mere declaration that you are a vanilla townie to be pointless at best and scummy at worst. I also see evidence of your carelessness-on a careful reading you would know that Rosso Carne is the most confirmed person in the game and is the one player who is beyond suspicion.

I will mention one guiding principal that I am using. I believe that an argument between two players gives more information about alignment than a mere vote, as votes can be easily faked while a realistic prolonged conflict is more difficult to portray. (Certainly several of the known scum have voted each other).

I will also announce that I am adding Vaughn and Shamrock to the list of execution and that I feel that these are the only two reasonable candidates for being lynched today. I have not yet decide which is a better lynch (although it is possible that both are good lynches).

[Thok]

At this moment I'm currently leaning towards a Shamrock execution.

I mentioned yesterday that Ameliaslay was the one who prodded mon (whom Shamrock replaced), to which elvis_knits immediately placed a vote. I feel this vote was an attempt at a scum distancing tactic by EK. Rereading the original prod, I also noticed that broomhead was the one who originally noticed that mon wasn't posting, and that he stated his observation in a way that makes me think he is not connected with mon/Shamrock.

I doubt that Vaughn is faking his carelessness; however that is at least a partial evidence that he is protown, as I would believe that scum would try to keep their partners up to date. I am not particularly happy at the idea of keeping Vaughn alive, but I feel Shamrock is more likely to be scum.

I am pondering the idea of the last two scum being Shamrock and VitaminR (I feel that Vaughn is a also possible partner of Shamrock, and that Fuldu or broomhead is less likely).

I am also trying to decide if now would be a good idea to out the Kingmaker, or if we should wait to tomorrow (my personal feeling is that town will not gain enough useful info at this point in time to justify having the Kingmaker come out).

@broomhead-town likely can only make two more mistakes, and remember that because of the Kingmaker system, town has two chances to make a mistake each day (by both the King and the Kingmaker). If you are the hero, I would not want to have one of those mistakes be used on you.

[Thok]

With not much happening, I will

Execute Shamrock

.

[Thok]

I was apparently wrong about Shamrock.

We really need more participation, as interaction between people is good.

Broomhead-what are your initial thoughts?

[Thok]

What exactly of VitaminR's voting record makes you think he's scum?

Any reason for not having Fuldu on your list?

I will observe that the confusion event helped us catch PJ.

I also find your phrasing of "though you made the same mistake as king that i did" to be worrisome, as it suggests that you know that I'm protown.

[Thok]

No (except for possibly the Kingmaker, if he isn't counterclaimed).

[Thok]

No, he'd simply need to be trying to phrase his posts from a protown perspective.

[Thok]

I don't think he meant confirmable, but actually presently confirmed. And no, I don't believe anyone is.

I also find your phrasing of "though you made the same mistake as king that i did" to be worrisome, as it suggests that you know that I'm protown.

For that to make any sense as an argument, he'd also have to be pro-town.

To clarify my comment, Broomhead claims that there's a decent chance that I'm scum. If that's so, then why would he immediately classify my execution of Shamrock as a mere "mistake", and ignore the possibility that I might have executed Shamrock as a scum tactic to keep Vaughn around (either as an easy execution if Vaughn is town or to protect my scum partner if Vaughn is scum). I believe that a protown broomhead wouldn't immediately classify my comment as a mistake. (I also believe that a scum Broomhead would definately want to classify his execution of TSS as a mere "mistake", to lessen any case against him, although that's a null argument since a protown broomhead would act the same way.)

Vote Fuldu

for craplogic in dismissing my argument.

[Thok]

As an aside, I have thought about endgame situations some, and I have decided that we should no longer try to force claims from people until we get down to 1 scum remaining. Given the design of the game, there are clear situations where scum gains a significant advantage simply by knowing people's role claims (enough of a benefit that it may actually be worthwhile for a townie to lie and claim kingmaker even if he is not.)

In particular, I will vote anybody who claims a role today on general principle.

I will explain the particular endgame scenario I am concerned with if necessary, but it easy to reconstruct.

[Thok]

Brilliant job broomhead. You claim to want VitR dead, but you don't even bother to put your reasoning for it and back off from your position when people call you for it. You don't know why people are suspcious of Fuldu, even though he's been fairly lurky (which is the main argument against Vaughn) and several people were suspicious of him yesterday (Rosso Carne, for example). And you have to stretch just to justify calling my execution of Shamrock a mistake when I called you on it (if you truly had those thoughts about what scum me would do, why didn't you include them in your first post).

You've missed the point of my discussion of claiming-I'm not worried about counterclaims, but rather specific scum actions that they can use to take advantage of the setup. From this point of view, any doc left is irrelevant-it's specifically the kingmaker claim (and his inability to become king) that's my source of worrying. (But I'll note you trying to keep a potential doc claim alive; not only is it clear that there's not a doc around but we now even know that the winning conditions were a strong hint that town didn't have a doc or vig and are possibly a hint that we don't have a hero.)

My reason for believing that we have two scum left is that BMQ's posts have become fairly dire recently.

Broomhead, I'm not attacking you because I'm trying to convince you not to lynch me; if I was worried about being lynched I'd be playing today much differently; this conversation is one-sided since you can kill me at anytime today and I can't do anytihng about it. I'm attacking you because I think you are scum and need to be exposed. I don't particularly care if I rise up your unhappy list, as I believe today is likely a wasted day for town already.

To be fair, there are only three people I feel are good lynches today among the lynches we can get. I believe our scum group is either broomhead and Fuldu, or possibly vaughn and somebody. I would support a Fuldu lynch (although I doubt broomhead will let that happen) or a Vaughn lynch (as it gives us some info). I will tolerate an execution of myself, as that will show me to be protown, and I believe that information plus my posts today is enough to help town win.

[Thok]

Can we get a

prod on Mystery Meat of Doom?

I want to hear his input.

Continuing the mistake debate:

4 i meant by mistake was hitting townie. if you were a good scum, you'd hit another scum, in my mind that would pretty much confirm you(but not officially) so that means your a scum that doesn't want to take a risk or only scum left. and thats assuming that your scum of course, i could be wrong.

Even if this quote makes sense, it's a horrible reading of my play style as scum. Anybody who has followed a few of my games as scum realizes that I have no problem with sacrificing my teammates to help my team win; in Verbose at various times I joined bandwagons against two of my scum buddies (in fact I helped lead the lynch of LML). I can give you plenty of other examples of situations when I sacrificed scum buddies to help my mafia.

This argument is also inconsistent with your claim that my argument with PJ was an argument with a scum buddy: if you believe that I'm scum then you apparently think I have no problems arguing with a scum buddy to get him in trouble when I could just lie down and let myself get lynched (something I've done before as scum), but have problems executing a scum buddy to prove my innocence. The only ways to reconcile these arguments are if I'm the last scum (which seems unlikely and raises the question of why I would lynch Shamrock over Vaughn), or if I'm town and you're just blowing smoke trying to justify my lynch.

[Thok]

I'm actually thinking it's time for a mass-claim, to out the powerroles. I know this sounds bad and all, but I don't think we have any left. And if we do, then that gives the kingmaker less choices to choose from when and if he dies. Also, powerroles, if claimed by people under suspicion, could very likely be mafia trying to get around not-becoming-targetted by the kingmaker when he dies.

Thoughts about the plan? It's also likely the kingmaker won't die which is a meh.

I should make my earlier musings clear-the situation I'm specifically worried about and why I will vehemently oppose a mass claim is the following:

Suppose that after two more lynches we get down to four people left at night, 1 the exking (protown), 1 kingmaker, 1 other protown, and 1 scum. In that case scum will win if they kill the 1 other protown, as the kingmaker will be forced to make the last scum the king on the final day. I'd like to force scum to have to guess in that situation.

[Thok]

Two posts so far today and Fuldu has yet to give any indication of whom he finds suspicious. He's disputed various arguments, but hasn't provided any constructive arguments of his own. I'd like to know who he thinks is scummy.

[Thok]

El Supreme Commander Broomhead-any thoughts on current events?

I would also like to hear thoughts from VitaminR (and Vaughn, but that goes without saying).

[Thok]

Broomhead, do you want to grace us with your kingly thoughts?

[Thok]

Twiddles fingers.

BMQ-Vaughn has requested replacement in several of his games; do you know if he's requested replacement in this game.

Broomhead should be poked.

[Thok]

I think Thok's level of aggression has ramped up in the endgame, which causes me to be more suspicious of him. I saw this when we were scum together in Gotham, though there were only a few glimpses of it, as we we're pretty well screwed by that stage.

My level of aggression has very little to do with my being scum or town, and has everything to do with how important the situation seems to be to me. I was at least this aggressive at the end of the Five Year Invitational, during most of Choose Somebody Else's Role, and even at the end of DP13 (a game, incidentally, that Fuldu was also in at endgame). I was protown in all three of those games.

If anything, any aggression from me merely reflects me thinking that there's a decent chance my side is already well-screwed.

Got any more easily disproven psychological BS for me Fuldu?
------------
Incidentally, if we're playing the "who found PJ suspicious first" game, then I voted for him at the end of day 1. I may not have followed through with that instinct the next day, but it was there.
------------

Bah, let me give some actual arguments against Fuldu.

1. Generic distrust of Fritzler the entire game base simply on him being Fritzler. (See post 52 (although that's more of a joke), 489 and 718)

2. Pushing the N_Lich "assassins" tell

3. I'm trying to analyze your involvement at the end of the RA wagon day 1 (after he claimed "But maybe I am a power role?"). I feel like you were attacking him more then necessary at that point. It's roughly the same reason that I voted PJ day 1; at that point RA was likely to die anyways.

4. The whole not voting thing. I can understand that we should look at your posts to see your arguments, but we can't tell which arguments you consider to be more important than others. In a normal game, a vote (versus an FOS or an IGMEOY or nothing) gives us a feel for how strong you think an argument is. You've delibarately denied us that information, which would seem to be a more useful tactic for scum then for town.

[Thok]

Curious. I will taking broomhead's desire for replacement as at least a partial protown sign, as I feel a scum broomhead would have at least considered just killing somebody by now.

I eagerly await vikingfan's assessment of the situation.

[Thok]

Apologies. On the flip side, I think you know what my feelings are-I'd prefer a Fuldu execution, and I'd go along with an execution of Vaughn. I don't really see the case for other people being scum. (As I mentioned, your recent replacement makes it less likely in my mind that you/broomhead are scum and you aren't going to try to execute yourself.)

[Thok]

Hmm- I'm still alive. Interesting that the scum opted to go after VitaminR instead and replace the Kingmaker...

Let me say right now that I do not under any circumstances want a claim because of the case Thok mentioned earlier- if we mislynch today, we do not want to give a scum a free ride to victory.

What are people's thoughts? Mine still lies on Fuldu for the same reasons as yesterday.

vote Fuldu

Actually, I while I agree with this sentiment, there is one scenario under which we can safely mass claim, namely if you require me to test the hero claim after the mass claim. (That is require me to execute vikingfan after a mass claim). Either vikingfan is scum, or the kingmaker will have two options on who to make king, and can do so safely (although this will require him to make a choice; it ends up coming down to a 50% chance if vikingfan is the Hero.

[Thok]

My plan has a couple of advantages you have not seen. First of all, I would prefer that any 50-50 guess be a choice made by town rather than a choice made by scum. Secondly, if you truly are the hero, then scum does not have a 50-50 choice if I were to say, kill off Fuldu.

[Thok]

I have no problem going through with my plan; I view it as a safety play that has a small but essentially guaranteed advantage. I agree that I would like to hear discussion from people.

Yosarian, Fuldu, MMoD?

[Thok]

MMoD-thank you for reminding me that VitaminR possibly made more suspicious people scummy.

I will admit that I had not considered the possibility of executing a claimed kingmaker. I consider this information useful.

Is anybody worried about the possibility of two scum remaining? It seems unlikely to me, but it is something I want to keep in mind.

I will say that my order of suspicions is something like
Most scummy
Fuldu
MMoD/vikingfan
Yosarian2
Thok
Least Scummy

However, I am also trying to maximize town's chances.

I would like to hear from Fuldu.

[Thok]

If nobody counterclaims Fuldu, I see no reason to kill him today.

I agree with your message idea in principle, but I don't think anybody was anticipating the kingmaker dying last night. It also requires a lot of preparation, to deal with the various possibilities of who might be kingmaker. But this is probably not the time to discuss that idea; endgame will be better for that.

[Thok]

I meant after the end of the game; it's an interesting mechanics question, but completely irrelevant to us at the moment.

[Thok]

The problem is that I can't think of a good scenario where the king isn't guessing between me/Yos.

That's the main issue, and one we should certainly discuss before I decide on my execution today (assuming Yosarian2 doesn't counterclaim Fuldu, but I find that unlikely).

[Thok]

Given the current information, I believe the correct play is for me to target vikingfan after we've had some discussion on how to handle MMoD-Yosarian2 tomorrow; that covers the possibility of vikingfan or I being scum (in which case we shouldn't have to decide between MMoD and Yosarian2), while leaving us the chance to discuss MMoD-Yosarian2.

I will say that if MMoD is scum (or if vikingfan is scum for that matter), it makes my reading of the RA bandwagon (that scum jumped on between his vanilla claim and his not vanilla claim) reasonable, as 2 out of the 4 people who jumped on in that time period would be scum.

So there are two questions on the table

1. Is everybody happy with my plan?
2. Assuming scum is one of MMoD and Yosarian2, which one is it?

[Thok]

I've reread most of the thread, and I think MMoD is more likely to be scum out of Yosarian2/MMoD. The only real argument for MMoD being town is that PJ and Ameliaslay jumped on him (with me) after he misinterpreted things. I'm not sure I find that a convincing argument now, as that could just be scum preparing to sacrifice their own). I do still find the early Yosarian-elvis_knits fight a stronger indication that they are on opposite sides. I also feel that Yosarian2 comes off less scummy in his reaction to the RA bandwagon (given that RA was protown).

Fuldu-if MMoD or Yosarian2 are scum, they have a chance (depending on how they use their nightkill) to decide whether to have vikingfan or you make the decision. That may or may not be a good reason for you to disclose your thoughts.

People should let me know when they feel satisfied with the MMoD-Yosarian2 discussion. I will not end the day before then.

[Thok]

I don't understand why anybody is seriously considering Fuldu, the uncounterclaimed kingmaker, as the play today. From my point of view he's clearly the worst kill today.

As for deciding who of me or Fuldu should decide between Yos/MMoD, I'm willing to admit that my judgement hasn't always been the best in this game. I'll also argue that any measurable difference in judgement is dwarfed by the benefit of testing me/the hero claim.

[Thok]

My personal feeling is that if I wasn't going to target vikingfan today, I would instead try to decide between MMoD and Yosarian2; we should be playing to win, rather than not to lose.

Fuldu, are there any issues you wish Yosarian2 or MMoD to discuss in preparation for your decision? (Vikingfan, I don't know if there are any issues you wish to discuss either.)

[Thok]

I find these discussions on who should be executed pointless and a distraction from the MMoD/Yosarian2 discussion. Vikingfan will be the execution for the day. Assuming that there is only one scum left, this plan allows us to safely test 3 out of the 4 nonkingmakers left. No other line of play has that guarantee.

MMoD-I actually believe that in your scenario, scum would strongly consider not killing, assuming that they are allowed to do so. Testing vikingfan does not suffer from this problem.

MMoD, are you not concerned about the fact that 3 out of 5 people left believe that you are scummier than Yosarian2?

[Thok]

MMoD-this might be a good place to start.

I've reread most of the thread, and I think MMoD is more likely to be scum out of Yosarian2/MMoD. The only real argument for MMoD being town is that PJ and Ameliaslay jumped on him (with me) after he misinterpreted things. I'm not sure I find that a convincing argument now, as that could just be scum preparing to sacrifice their own). I do still find the early Yosarian-elvis_knits fight a stronger indication that they are on opposite sides. I also feel that Yosarian2 comes off less scummy in his reaction to the RA bandwagon (given that RA was protown).

[Thok]

We could try to base our execution on flavour of one's PM, assuming that all our PM's are the same when we're vanilla.

Have Yos and I paraphrase ours, then have Fuldu say if it matches his.

Look at the second post of the game MMoD.

[Thok]

Bump.

Is there anything more we want to discuss, or should I just end the day?

[Thok]

I believe it's insignificant at this point. I'd appreciate a lively jig or some fruit.[/Regal tone]

[Thok]

Fuldu, I'm going to end the day in 24 hours, unless you think there's more to be said.

[Thok]

As promised,

Execute: vikingfan

If the game isn't over, good luck to whichever of Fuldu/viking fan has to make the decision tomorrow.

[Thok]

Well. It's good to know that the safety play was actually the right play.

To be fair Vikingfan-I had thought of the idea of a hero lynch with 5 left (and 1 scum) yesterday when I was thinking about the possibilities of a 5 person endgame. I specifically held this idea back in case you were the hero, since you'd be an obvious lynch in that case.

Apologies to MMoD and Shamrock and to everybody whose scumdar I messed up.

Thanks go to Glork and Rosso for quality kingmanship (better than me) and to VitaminR and Fuldu for good kingmakership. I'd like to hear the various rationales for the choices of kings.

And yes, I really did think LML was kingmaker, and I really did send BMQ a PM explaining that.

[Thok]

-On Day 7, execute Fuldu/Yosarian2/MMoD...
-On Night 7, nightkill VitaminR
-On Day 8, have Vaughn

counterclaim

the new Kingmaker (since the dead Kingmaker would obviously try to assure the scummiest townie alive would be Kingmaker, so they would be "safe" from execution), and then see what happens

For a replacement, though, Vikingfan did an excellent job of looking like a Hero in a bad situation.

In that scenario (execute Fuldu, kill VitR) I'd have asked for an immediate lynch of vikingfan without claims: we can't win if he's actually the hero, so we have to assume he's not. (If he's the hero, then in the best case scenario we'd have exking, kingmaker, scum, hero, and scum wins by lynching the hero). We'd then have to have Vaughn misguess the kingmaker (essentially a coin flip) and correctly lynch Vaughn (the easy part ).

I'd also like to know how you knew that VitaminR was kingmaker-I was sure it was Yosarian2.

[Thok]

I didn't have nearly as much in th eway of night thought processes to go through, but my one decision went something like this:

If there's more than one scum left, we are pretty nearly screwed, so let's assume that's not the case. With only one scum left, the most important thing going into today is to not force ourselves into an unwinnable situation for tomorrow. Three things can accomplish that: 1) executing the king (by executing the hero), 2) executing the kingmaker (and then making the former king kingmaker), or 3) making scum king today. Options 1 and 3 can potentially be combined, if I play it right. I trust Thok the least, so let's make him king, and put him in a difficult situation. If he executes broomhead, then we've made it through the day safely. If he executes me, then we've made it through the day safely, and hopefully the living will have learned something from that.

I approve of this thinking. I was actually deciding if it was worthwhile to make this sort of suggestion on the penultimate day (if we lynch scum, make a scummy person king), but decided that
a. that would encourage scum not to kill their own
b. that it would make me look scummy enough that I could be justifiably killed.