NY139: Underground Mafia (Game over!)

eep · Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:52 am

also, @mastin, why would stringer be a more informative lynch than trekker? I find trekker's claim more suspect, and if he's town, then we have two new confirmed townies instead of just one.

am I missing something?

also, why do you want to put off the battousai/uprising thing?

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:42 am

I still don't like stevie sheeping p much everyone.

and, I'm still thinking that trekker scumslipped d3, and that his voting patterns are weird given his alleged views. Stevie us clearly not happening as a lynch, so I'll UNVOTE: , VOTE: trekker.

also, a problem with mastin's arguments concerning the day 1 wagon and all the players in general, is that stevie and antb didn't post at all that day. I'm not totally clear on why he's ruling stevie out, and if you iso him, he's also playing really strangely. I dunno. I'm glad he brought d1 bandwagon analysis back up. also, what about the involvement of the serial killer in the bandwagon? also, a lot of people thought daphne had scumslipped. does that make a difference in how many scum are likely to be in that bandwagon?

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:52 am

oh yeah, and csl/nocase/whoever also wasn't around day 1.

which isn't to say that he's definitely scum, but I feel like any analysis that totally overlooks that is missing something important.

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:02 am

on the other hand, the fact that stevie started sheeping trekker so hard after trekker claimed stringer was scum makes me think they can't be on the same team, so stringer or uprising is more likely scum.

I guess this assumes that Stevie is scum but I have a pretty good feeling that this is the case.

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:11 am

oh, I just realized that rolecop is not what I thought it was.

so trekker town doesn't imply Stevie town.

trekker, what exactly were you told for taa's role?

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:15 am

In post 1564, sorgster wrote:Everyone trekker,stringer or uprising die today. Who shall we choose?

Unvote
Vote trekker

eep · Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:18 am

uh.

I don't know what happened there.

what I meant to say was that I'm leaving my VOTE: steviet92 in place because if he's scum then stringer is scum and I have a really good feeling he's scum.

eep · Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:21 pm

argh, i'm not sure whether my basic english comprehension is declining or phrasing in this thread has just gotten super convoluted.

so I don't know what battousai was saying in that last post, or what sorgster is saying against confirms him? and what was mastin's grand gameplan?

that being said, battousai's roleclaim was kinda strange.

but, the fact that uprising is waiting to vote for him and accuse him is kinda strange.

also, to play the devil's advocate, why can't they BOTH be scum and trying to bus each other to give one of them a "fake confirm"?

Edit: ninja'd.

eep · Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:26 pm

sorgster, could you clarify? i thought his claim was weird, but not damning.

eep · Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:41 pm

oh, meaning that he was saying he wouldn't use his role and that didn't make sense if he wouldn't die?

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:14 am

view?

Stevie, stop pretending you aren't obvscum.

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:20 am

trekker claim your read

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:22 am

trekker is probably town since stringer was scum, per mastin's predictions yesterday.

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:06 am

In post 1626, sorgster wrote:
In post 1625, eep wrote:trekker is probably town since stringer was scum, per mastin's predictions yesterday.

Mastin told me that if batt is dead and flips town there must only be 3 scum.

why would there be more/less? 4/2 scum + sk doesn't seem balanced...

also i would like to hear more of mastin's thoughts while we're waiting for trekker

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:34 am

i mean the ones he said to you in the thread

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:35 am

or the qt

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:46 am

In post 1606, Uprising wrote:Battousai said he wasn't going to action and claims he actioned me which is a little silly, no?

i don't see the problem there? battousai said that that post breadcrumbed targetting you.

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:10 am

mkay.

there is one thing that mastin mentioned here which is bothering me, and that's the issue of role symmetry.

Battousai's claim is weird because it's doesn't have a symmetric counter-part. Uprising's claim is weird because we don't have a tracker. But, on the other hand, rolecop and gunsmith don't exactly have symmetric counter-parts either, unless one of our vts is townie AND lying? but that wouldn't be helpful at this point.

Uprising's claim is stranger from this perspective.

However, Battousai has been acting REALLY desperate today, and yesterday to some degree as well. If I were going with my gut, I would be inclined to think that Battousai is scum, but the fact that uprising struck me as so scummy before she fell under pressure worries me; some scum are super suspicious when they can lie low and get really towny when you put a little pressure on them. I've seen too many times when townies start talking about how the town is acting ridiculous and end up getting lynched. see daphne, day 1.

antb seems convinced that uprising is town but i don't trust his meta.
also the fact that uprising hasn't gotten any suspicion from anyone but battousai bothers me a bit.

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:22 am

i feel like if battousai were scum there would be at least someone gunning for you, but everyone's in the range of neutral-lynchb

that isn't necessarily damning but i don't wanna just "go with my gut" because that screwed us over for three days

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:54 pm

In post 1637, Pine wrote:Eh, when a cop or cop-like role comes out with a guilty, you don't defend your buddy, and damn don't chainsaw for them. You let them die, kill the investigator, and go for the next day.

this would make sense if battousai hadn't claimed against uprising yesterday. would uprising have claimed differently if she were scum? also, the fact that she tried to go for a "maybe there's a hidden mechanism" first is shady.

In post 1639, Battousai wrote:Eep- I'm acting desperately? How is that a scum tell when all the claimed roles tell us it's 5 town v 3 scum (mylo)

my point is that my gut instinct is to call it a scumtell, but a bunch of townies do the same thing. Look at sorgster or daphne d1, among others.

"argh no one's listening to me" antics tend to draw suspicion but it's also how frustrated townies respond.

also, how is 5 town v. 3 scum suggested? i've heard you and stevie suggest it but haven't seen anything specifically pointing to it?

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:54 pm

@battousai, what if trekker is scum? would that change the balance?

eep · Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:59 pm

wait, then 3 scum would have fakeclaimed pr, that would also suggest 4 scum.

point taken.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:11 am

Technically, battousai claimed a cop-relevant result first.

Also, this post strikes me as possibly communication between two scum when one of them doesn't like the behavior of the other? or maybe i'm reading too much into that.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:01 am

In post 1649, sorgster wrote:Only way for stevie to be scum is for trekker to be scum.

nope. rolecop only gets pr info, not alignment. mafia goons would come up as vanilla townies.

otherwise that role would be incredibly overpowered.

@pine, that would be here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p3515527

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:02 am

also, I was the first person to claim vt, not the last.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:20 am

we have no reason to believe trekker. the question is whether he's the sort to bus his scumbuddies. considering the way he acted against stringer, I think this is very likely.

but, I feel like his actions today are enough to place him as scum.

I don't think pine is scum.

I don't want to end the day yet, either (unless sorgster's vote is the hammer?)

battousai, what are your thoughts on all the players who claimed vt?

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:30 am

you too, uprising.

also, there's one thing that bothers me - trekker suggested d3 that there were three scum. battousai is suggesting there are 4. I doubt that they can BOTH be scum.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:11 am

stevie is the fourth vt claimant, and pine replaced csl.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:12 am

and you have a point about antb.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:33 pm

@pine, trekker might have scumslipped here and confirms that he was saying there were three scum here.

i don't think both trekker and battousai can be scum.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:37 pm

on the other hand,

In post 1648, StevieT92 wrote:LMAO eep you never fail to crack me up trying to make a case on me. what uprising said was a valid town point.

that wasn't a case on you. that was a case on uprising because of her interactions with you.

this response strikes me as stevie bussing his scumbuddy to gain town cred. maybe trekker was yanking our chain?

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:28 pm

In post 1685, StevieT92 wrote:
that is simply not true.

uh, yeah it is.

regardless, either trekker is scum or you need to get reconsidering your vote. so I'm not sure why you're pushing for this. could there actually be a jester in this game?

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:47 pm

"This version of the role, and only this version of the role, is considered Normal on mafiascum.net."

this is the wiki attached to this site. this is the normal version of the role on this site.

further, a rolecop who gets alignment + two other weak cop roles (gunsmith and watcher/hider) + 2 bodyguards + 2 potential mason pairs is WAY overpowered.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:31 pm

this is what I thought at first too, but mastin made some comment about how rolecop is a "weak cop" role so I double checked.

It sounds like they might not get the townie, just vanilla.

but this is not really the big issue with trekker right now.

eep · Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:50 pm

this is true, haha.

eep · Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:53 am

In post 1695, trekker wrote:My RC said that Battousai was Hider, instead of getting a result on Uprising. What's going on, and why are we lynching him??

VOTE: eep

I'm confused, why are you voting me?

In post 1696, Pine wrote:
In post 1688, eep wrote:further, a rolecop who gets alignment + two other weak cop roles (gunsmith and watcher/hider) + 2 bodyguards + 2 potential mason pairs is WAY overpowered.

It's overpowered either way. At least one, maybe more are lying about their role. Too tired to sort it out.

all of those are confirmed except watcher, hider, and rolecop.

In post 1698, sorgster wrote:
In post 1695, trekker wrote:My RC said that Battousai was Hider, instead of getting a result on Uprising. What's going on, and why are we lynching him??

VOTE: eep

He could be a scum hider because of roles like the sk. We must kill battosai. His lynch tells us everything we need to know. I seriously wish mastin wasn't dead.

does scum hider even make sense? do you mean it could be a weak defensive role against the sk?

eep · Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:37 am

hmm hmmm

so browsing the wiki for what roles are considered normal, i came across this, which could explain the trekker/battousai disconnect, and also this, which could mean uprising's results are wrong even if she's town.

just to speculating

(1) uprising is town watcher, trekker is town rolecop, battousai is town hider.
In this case, the EXTREME power imbalance otherwise suggests that there has to be at least 4 scum and that they do need to have some strong power roles.

mafia roleblocker

implied by trekker's results from today and uprising's results from n2.

mafia framer

suggested from uprising's result from today.
trekker's results from n1, n2, and n4 suggest that me and antb must be the scum roles and one of pine/stevie is a remaining mafia goon. I know this isn't the case.

(2) uprising is town watcher, trekker is town rolecop or scum, battousai is scum (hider, but could also just be a goon in the latter case)
this has a simple solution, and also suggests that only 1-2 of the vts is scum. I like this for its elegance.

(3) uprising is town watcher, trekker is scum, battousai is town hider
like (1), this suggests

mafia roleblocker

and

mafia framer

, but pine, stevie, and trekker could be one of those roles. I lean towards a stevie-trekker-antb scumteam in this case.

(4) uprising is scum, trekker is town rolecop or scum, battousai is town hider
this is another simple solution. uprising is lying and trekker is either bussing his scumbuddy to gain cred or telling the truth. roleblocker still needed in the latter case, I guess?

(5) uprising is scum, trekker is whatever, battousai is scum
this is kinda clever because it would leave at least one of battousai/uprising confirmed, but i doubt this is the case if we've been in mylo since yesterday. neither battousai nor uprising were gunning for stringer bell yesterday, and battousai only switched his vote over at the very end.

the cases when trekker is scum make the most sense to me, and now that it's a possible 1v2, i might prefer to lynch him over one of battousai/uprising.

eep · Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:57 pm

VOTE: trekker

eep · Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:05 pm

here's my suspicion list, in order:
trekker
steviet92
antb
pine

i'm most interested in hearing what mastin said in the qt.

eep · Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:58 pm

considering that he also claimed no result from uprising, there'd have to be a framer *and* some other weird mechanism. not plausible.

nobody hammer until sorgster posts

eep · Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:01 am

correction: nobody hammer until sorgster posts AND we have some time to discuss/think about things. ideally, I'd like some reads from everyone.

eep · Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:15 am

uhh, i think sorgster's vote was the hammer.

also, I'm not quite sure what you're saying, pine? trekker said he was looking for 3 scum d3, battousai insisted there were 4. It was inconsistent, but that's not really an issue after battousai and uprising flipped.

eep · Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:22 am

in fact you quoted trekker's lie. Why is it problematic that I'm voting for him when you agree he has to be scum?

eep · Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:30 am

never mind, you seem to think I'm scum independent of that. Care to make a case?

eep · Mon Oct 31, 2011 3:29 pm

when did trekker tunnel against antb?

I think Stevie is scum and I can pull a case together when I am not on my phone, but I will hold off voting for now.

eep · Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:01 am

actually, a lot of your day 5 play was VERY scummy. trying to persuade people with "what scum would do" tells me you're doing your best to APPEAR town, not that you ARE town.

eep · Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:05 am

also, enough question dodging: WHEN DID TREKKER TUNNEL ON ANTB?

eep · Tue Nov 01, 2011 3:50 pm

Pine has a point - trekker is a known busser for stringer bell, but definitely did NOT bus battousai. Or at least, I don't consider it a bus when it fucks the busser.

I'm not totally sure what to think of antb. I had a null read on him day 3, and he's kept himself solidly on that null read; nothing he's done has been exceptionally townie or scummy. But, on the other hand:

(1) He was VERY insistent that uprising is town. In fact, that's pretty much all he's done.
(2) iirc, none of the KNOWN scum voted for him d3.

So, I'm not really sure what to make of him. Would like to hear a lot more from him before I settle into any vote, though.

eep · Wed Nov 02, 2011 9:44 am

sooo, is AntB around at all?

I kinda wish we HAD lynched him d3.

eep · Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:19 am

those interactions with battousai yesterday don't make sense if pine is scum.

so it's either stevie or antb. i will also reread.

eep · Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:17 pm

i don't think he noticed before, i don't feel like he's been paying that much attention.

eep · Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:21 am

then why isn't he suspicious of me?

eep · Sun Nov 06, 2011 1:25 am

antb hasn't even been around. how is that proof?

eep · Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:38 am

@pine, that's totally anecdotal, it makes sense for scum to do what Stevie's suggesting, too.

it's a null point.

eep · Mon Nov 07, 2011 7:15 am

I don't really like that antb isn't taking a stance.

VOTE: antb

eep · Tue Nov 08, 2011 1:21 am

pine, if there were any chance that this *wasn't* mylo I would absolutely be on Stevie.

antb has specifically avoided posting anything substantial today, and it makes me think he's trying to sit back and watch the show. he hasn't been one of my main suspects for most of the game, and if anything, "confirmation bias" would lead me to suspect Stevie.

that being said, I'm glad you're not just voting for him, but this isn't really the time for tunneling.

eep · Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:51 am

We definitely shouldn't CHOOSE to do a no lynch; if it ends up being what happens, then that's what happens, but we won't have any more information tomorrow, just less freedom to cast votes.

AntB, can you also make a scum case for all three of us?

eep · Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:45 am

phewwwww, good game, guys! Especially to the replace-ins who made the endgame fun!

And, good set-up, implosion. Although I wish one of my abilities had actually gotten me something useful. :p

eep · Thu Nov 10, 2011 6:29 am

^yeah, that was quite scary, I didn't think I'd make it through. We probably shouldn't have tried the trekker/battousai thing, just to have that backup.

I also wasn't sure how Pine or AntB were planning to vote, and I seriously considered killing off one of them instead of sorgster, who I thought was more likely to lean towards stevie.

eep · Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:03 pm

In post 1816, sorgster wrote:I wish trekker was killed and I managed to get a successful bandwagon on him. Eep simply had to be scum, I don't understand how that got changed.

trekker's bussing saved me.

also, it makes sense for people to be cautious during mylo, and I think my biggest weakness as scum is the balancing act involved in looking out for my partners/myself. when it got to just me, it became more of a game of chess, and everyone had already said the sorts of things they looked out for as scumtells.