NY 143: Mafia on the Gulf Coast (Game Over!)

[Pine]

Vote: Amrun

Jumping from proposed Policy Lynch to a vote with a really bad reason? Someone is nervous scum.

(Amrun is not a good PL candidate, by the way. She's pretty awesome.)

[Pine]

I've got two fairly weak reasons, and on Page One, that's a major case. First, your vote hopping. Second, your poor reasoning and seeming opportunism with who you selected to vote. You're absolutely right, if this were page ten, I should get laughed out of town for calling that a good case, but with 20 posts down, I feel fairly good about it.

[Pine]

A. Policy lynch proposed = Opportunity
B. Jumping on said PL with flimsy reasons (It's not like he's Deity Kabuto or Beck) = Opportunism

[Pine]

Townread on: Amrun

Vote-hopping in RVS is a towntell, and 100% non-scummy. Zombeh-Pug is null: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =1&t=17231
VOTE: Pine Drop that case, it's not valid.

no u

[Pine]

Also, you're very wrong about vote-hopping in RVS being a Towntell. If it were, every scum would do it, and it would stop being a Towntell. You're wrong both from an actual meta and a theoretical meta standpoint.

RVS vote-hopping is a subconscious sign of nervousness. Nervousness shortly after receiving a role PM is damn suspicious. It's also involuntary, and can only be partially controlled, and only then by experienced players. I have a high opinion of Amrun, which is why I read further into her actions than I do with people I don't know. In this case, it's scummy. Not quite a tell, and far from proof, but it's definitely a good lead for early D1.

[Pine]

Question for Pine:

From your POV, which of Amrum's actions are scummiest: the RVS vote hopping, or his PLing?

Neither. Her scummiest action so far has been the reaction to my push against her. She's defending furiously against what began as a very weak case; the two minor points I had against her at the start are not strong enough to suffice for anything other than early Day One. Which is what makes her hard, line-in-the-sand defense against it so interesting. I'd expect her to laugh it off, provide a "here's why you're wrong" defense and move on, or just straight-up ignore it. Instead, she engaged it as a serious threat. Not a Townish response.

[Pine]

No, I don't care to provide quotes. Read the thread, it's only

42

43 posts long. Amrun reacted to a case being made on her far more strongly than necessary, and it appears that she's trying to quash a threat before it germinates.

No case on Isa because I see where she's coming from, I just don't respect her position. No one buddies their buddy that hard this early. If anything, it's evidence that an Amrun scumflip will softclear Isa.

[Pine]

See,

your

defense of Amrun does come off as a bit scummy. It's just too coordinated and determined, whereas Isa's is poorly-formed and gives full suspicion to Amrun. You've also clearly given a lot of thought as to whether or not scum defending each other this hard this early is legit or not, and seem to have given little consideration to Amrun as scum.

[Pine]

I see less scumhunting out of kiwi, and more dismantling of an actual scumhunter's arguments.

PE: Amrun's 56 is the Towniest thing I've seen from her yet, and I'm toying with reconsidering my read on her. Her point about kiwi's talk of bussing cases when we don't have a flip and we're too early for actual certainty also strikes me as out of place. I'm not all the way there yet though.

PE2: You're offtrack. Isa characterizing of RVS votehopping is stupid to the point of cringing, but it's a newbtell, and completely null. It's like if I were to vehemently argue that the sky is actually a pale teal instead of blue. It's simply wrong.

[Pine]

...

...

...You're seriously looking at lining up lynches on Page Three? And asking others to do the same?

Unvote
Vote: PKiwi

[Pine]

Bad taste yes/no?

So bad, in fact, that it refuses to display. On my machine, at least, and I'd imagine on other people's. -ToD

[Pine]

Isa, I didn't initially respond to 35 & 37 because they were blitheringly stupid.

Point #1:

Scum wouldn't do that! It attracts attention.

Of course they wouldn't do it on purpose you twit. That's why I made a point to recognize it as an involuntary sign of nervousness. No one is ever scummy on purpose, that's why it's a catch and not a simple DC 0 Listen check of someone shouting "I am scum!" from a mountain top.

Point #2:

Can't Town be nervous?

Of course they can. This point deserved an extra special "no comment," but since you brought it up again and aren't letting go, I'm forced to respond. Town power roles can sometimes act the same way, as can anyone else. It just comes a lot more often from scum, especially in large games where there's a lot more challenge. Congratulations, you've forced me to point that out to scum who may not have considered it.

Kindly go sit in the corner, adults are scumhunting.

[Pine]

I don't want you to answer it at all, Isa. You were wrong, and not only were you wrong, you persisted in being wrong until you forced me to out that Amrun may be a PR if she isn't scum. Congratulations. Now do something useful instead of prolonging this particular discussion.

[Pine]

112 and 114 are bad. I think Kiwi is scum, but the alleged slip is false. There was a clear "If Lowell is Town, it's a free scumkill" message. Amrun is reaching.

[Pine]

I have to agree with you on this. Regardless as to whether or not you like a player, simply lynching them D1 (especially if they are town aligned), with so few posts, won't reveal any information and it's a free kill for scum.

You know Lowell is town, then?

I didn't say it was a slip.

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

Calling a slip but not naming it as such smells as sour.

(Ooooh, Shakespeare burn for the win! I just got

Elizabethan

on your ass!)

[Pine]

First mention? How about the vote I lodged a few pages back, with reasoning to support it.

[Pine]

See,

your

defense of Amrun does come off as a bit scummy. It's just too coordinated and determined,

too townie is a fallacy, fyi

I don't think that's Too Townie. Usually, I believe that fallacy refers to a player whose overall play seems extremely obvtown. This is about a defense that seemed too purposeful.

I wasn't calling it Too Townie, incidentally. I was calling it coordinated and purposeful. Here again is where comparison between Isa and Kiwi makes sense. Kiwi's attacks on me seemed to have a direction and purpose; she was trying to dismantle my whole offense, rather than countering my arguments while remaining skepticism. Isa was belligerently countering specific points while remaining neutral regarding Amrun.

[Pine]

Hi bvoigt!

Are you scum, SK, or vig this game? You always have a gun in any game I play you.

I'm cultafia, actually.

[Pine]

I got prodded lolwut?

I've been following closely, didn't realize I hadn't actually posted. This game is very...blah. I'll post some thoughts thus far when I get home.

[Pine]

@SSBF: Yeah, I've mostly been skimming. Missed that, and it's mitigated by the fact that NC has been all-around Towny, while Kiwi has not.

Also, the wagon on SV reads as extremely opportunistic and suspect. This is what SV does. He's lurky and obnoxious, and it doesn't mean anything yet. The fact that a wagon has ramped up so fast and poorly-reasoned suggests to me that it's a mislynch attempt, with 1-2 scum on it.

[Pine]

Shattered Viewpoint is an alt of Nobody Special. He's trying a new strategy, which I've observed in [REDACTED] and [REDACTED]. This behavior is consistent with those. Efforts have been made to not tolerate his obnoxious lurking, but I'm starting to see a method to his madness and a pattern. To be sure, this behavior helps his scum meta, but standing back and watching the game while aloof from its day-to-days has some benefits for Town as well. My strategy for dealing with him is to let him go for a while and have him accumulate enough content to make a good read.

Thus far, it's 100% null, and the wagon against him is based on a "We don't like lurky assholes" policy lynch.

[Pine]

Shattered Viewpoint is an alt of Nobody Special. He's trying a new strategy, which I've observed in [REDACTED] and [REDACTED]. This behavior is consistent with those. Efforts have been made to not tolerate his obnoxious lurking, but I'm starting to see a method to his madness and a pattern. To be sure, this behavior helps his scum meta, but standing back and watching the game while aloof from its day-to-days has some benefits for Town as well. My strategy for dealing with him is to let him go for a while and have him accumulate enough content to make a good read.

Thus far, it's 100% null, and the wagon against him is based on a "We don't like lurky assholes" policy lynch.

Pine is 100% town for this.

Also, I need to try not being quite so transparent.

See,

this

is the kind of thing I'm waiting for. SV's blatant buddying here just rings suspicious. I didn't say anything that wasn't true, and I would absolutely say the same as scum. So his unequivocal declaration of me to be Town just comes off as currying favor.

[Pine]

Nothing's happened. Still bored with this thread.

[Pine]

Mastin, you're my favorite. I love being in my own category.

I'm Town, kthx.

So is Mastin, kay folks?

[Pine]

Nah, he's Town. Trust me on this one.

Unvote
Vote: Fuckalow

#shamelesslysheepingmastin

[Pine]

Actually, I know exactly what Mastin's doing, and I can certify it as sound.

You're just butthurt that we're 13 pages in, and he's already nailed you.

Crai moar.

[Pine]

His methodology is sound. I have not gone over his cases in great detail yet. I am extremely familiar with Mastin, having played with him about ten times and even hydra'd with him. While Mastin is really, really bad at reading me, I'm quite good at reading him. I can tell you right away that he's Town, and as he's much better as Town than I am, I will be deferring to him until I get strong reads of my own.

Your individual assessment is pending, but the way you blindly attacked the validity of his methods without engaging the actual points against you does not bode well, and reinforces my faith in his scumread on you.

[Pine]

I intend to do a full reread of the thread after the Thanksgiving holiday. You'll have to twist in the wind until then. For now, it is enough to me that Mastin has you as a major scumread, and that your reaction to being called out (namely attacking his methodology in a sneaky OMGUS way instead of engaging his points) is super scummy. Until now, you'd been flying under my radar. Not any more, nope nope nope.

[Pine]

Oh hey, and add lolOMGUS against me to the list of your bad reactions.

[Pine]

Yes, because we'd be that blatantly buddying. #sarcasm

Neither Mastin are that inexperienced. We might do some ballsy things as scum, but forming a Town coalition shamelessly on D1? Too incautious. Sure, it's WIFOM to say so, but I always, always hedge my bets as scum. I never go all-in until the endgame, unless forced.

[Pine]

Umm, no. He's moving on to a different stated scumread.

[Pine]

You're not paying attention, are you? I have enough meta on Mastin that I'm already confident of his Town credentials. I'm defending him against your attack because it was weaksauce and motivated by self-preservation and/or OMGUS. And pretty blatantly so.

[Pine]

@Mist: lol, this is a ridiculously good scumgame if it is one. He's got me 100% fooled in that case.

And do your homework on my meta, Mist. I don't go out on a limb like this for scumbuddies. I have never, ever chainsawed for a buddy. I will provide limited assistance, and I rarely bus. But if a buddy fucks up, they're on their own.

PE: No, it looks like Town with more than one strong scumread. See every game ever by competent Townies.

[Pine]

I didn't need the Town cred. I don't think anyone in the entire thread had registered a scumread on me past the Amrun/Isa/Kiwi skirmish back in the first couple of pages.

Also, thank you for just confirming Mastin as Town. Super slip is super.

Mastin, you up for splitting a Best Town Scummy with me?

[Pine]

It was so OMGUS. After all, thats why I'm voting him. OK meta, thats all nice and junk but it doesn't mean Mastin DID NOT RECIEVE A SCUM PM.
If I was still a scum read there's no need for him to hop on another wagon. You know what that looks like? Scum trying to find a wagon that sticks.

Implies Mastin is scum.

you know its also a chainsaw when you defend a townie for town cred.

Outright calls Mastin Town.

This, folks, is a scumslip. He accuses me of defending a Townie for "Town cred". But wait! Wasn't Mastin scum to you JUST A FEW POSTS AGO? Boom, headshot.

Unvote
Vote: Nero

No excuses. Confirmed scum first, then obvscum, then theories.

PE: And the confscum number two! Either I'm being fooled, or I'm obvscum. You can't have it both ways, honey. I reevaluated my reads when Mastin posted his lists. I am VERY good as scum, and this would be terribad scumplay. I don't need to spell out who I'm responding to in lowercase letters and one-word syllables interspersed with grunts and gestures. Grow some big girl panties and read.

[Pine]

Truth hurts, sweetheart. Better luck next time.

[Pine]

Nifty. So are you hunting an SK, or another scumgroup with that statement?

[Pine]

See, "chainsawing" implies I have an ulterior motive.

I do not. I think he is Town, you are scum.

[Pine]

Here's a fun game: Why has Mastin been scummy? Other than thinking you're scum, of course.

[Pine]

The only questions you've asked me that are unanswered is whether Mastin could do what he did as either scum or Town, and whether I'd previously listed you as Town.

Mastin can fake it as scum. I have enough experience with him and insight into his thought processes to determine that he's not faking it. He's not as stream-of-consciousness or scattered as scum, and his cases tend to be airtight and complete. Incomplete but compelling cases is a hallmark of MastinTown.

I have never listed you as Town. I do, however, note that I was a "Strong Town read" of yours as of 313. Magic, how that reversed as soon as I formulated a scumread on you.

[Pine]

Mimosas, bro. They do wonders for the mood, and the family doesn't look at you strange for drinking in the morning.

[Pine]

Stay in target, Mastin. I saw it immediately too, but we burn Nero at the stake first.

[Pine]

Actually, I did that math myself. Thanks for the compliment though!

[Pine]

I find Nero's allegation that Mastin's entire case rests on Nero's scumflip to be laughable. If you're going to try to defend yourself against something, it would help to read the case against you.

[Pine]

You're more than experienced enough to know that it's less about what you say, and more about how you say it. You're shamelessly trying to diminish and dismiss a solid case on you.

PE: All of his reads were arrived at independent of you. READ THE CASES MADE BY YOUR DETRACTORS IF YOU WANT TO FIGHT THEM.

[Pine]

Another possibility is multiple scum teams, each with a bulletproof/BP GF. I haven't seen anything to support that, but I've been in/been planning a lot of multi-scum lately, so it's on the brain. One could be a bold BP SK.

[Pine]

Why is multi-scum impossible?

[Pine]

Doesn't mean they're wrong. And the main ones (Tajon, Mist, Nero) are all slam-dunks. He has a right to be a bit confident, Town's kicking ass and taking names already.

[Pine]

I'm easy. Nero or Mist makes little difference to me, as we don't have any insight into which of them may or may not be a PR. You choose.

PE: We're reading you, Nero. Reading just fine, in fact. We're just capable of sorting fact from bullshit, which is why we routinely find the flaws in your arguments and the holes in your defenses. Accusing us of not reading is getting a little Argument-Through-Repetition-y. Saying it over and over again doesn't make it true, and it doesn't invalidate the many legitimate points against you, which you have made little effort to engage.

[Pine]

Sounds good to me.

Unvote
Vote: Mist Beauty

Attention SK: If you wish to later claim Vigilante, you will be shooting Nero Cain tonight. No excuses.

PE: You're aware that it isn't possible to chainsaw defend someone that isn't actually being attacked? And no, I don't consider OMGUS MASTIN IS SCUM FOR NO PARTICULAR REASON to be an attack. And it also isn't possible to OMGUS against someone when you accused them/supported an accusation against them first?

[Pine]

It isn't cute. It's the truth. You accused me just now of OMGUSing against you. I supported Mastin's allegations against you prior to the first peep you made against me. No one is really attacking Mastin himself, except the unsubstantiated OMGUS being thrown against him. Even in those weaksauce cases, I supported his points against those people (you included) before they OMGUSed against him. So where's the chainsaw? You say chainsaw, I say consistency. Mastin is obvTown, and has extremely good points.

You have to be on defense to chainsaw. Neither Mastin nor I are on the defense. You are.

PE: I think he's flailing. Contradictory behavior is consistent with scrabbling for a handhold wherever one can find it. It's like the inverse of scum "hunting". A scum "hunting" tends to throw a lot of shit and follow what sticks. In this case, he's throwing out every kind of defense he can, and hoping something sticks.

PE2: Yeah, and false dichotomy for a third contradictory, scummy defense.

[Pine]

Chill, dude. No one credible was planning on lynching you today.

However, your paranoia and self-obsession is noted, and will be added to the eventual formal case against you.

[Pine]

Seriously, do the scum in this game know how to do anything but set up false dichotomies? The classic "if you're wrong, you must be scum" theme keeps cropping up over and over again. It's a logical fallacy.

[Pine]

*yawn*

[Pine]

Actually, to do my due diligence despite being confident of my read on Nero, I find I was incorrect about the accusations of OMGUS. I think I may have been mixing up games, or extrapolating Nero's implications, or something. It doesn't really change the case, merely the one point.

[Pine]

Seriously, do the scum in this game know how to do anything but set up false dichotomies? The classic "if you're wrong, you must be scum" theme keeps cropping up over and over again. It's a logical fallacy.

Who are you talking about here?

You, 468. Your talk of a number Mastin and/or I can be "held to". Calling it a "dichotomy" isn't technically accurate, as it isn't a choice between two things, but it is very much the same concept. You're demanding certitude from people who by definition are in the dark and guessing based on a system of assumptions and inference. Quantitative analysis of individual human behavior* is pretty much the ultimate fallacy, and trying to force-fit interpretation and inference into numbers is laughable and deceitful.

*Quantitative analysis of human GROUP behavior is actually very possible, and somewhat accurate. Its accuracy only becomes statistically significant with a very large sample size, just as random rolls of a 20-sided die only become predictable at high sample sets. I think I've had this conversation a few too many times...

PE: Hey, some more self-obsessed, paranoid scum.

[Pine]

Okay,

now

the false dichotomy fallacy applies to Nero.

If ToD decides to violate the Normal rules by putting a Reverse Death Miller in the game, that still doesn't make me scum, or Mastin. In 480, Nero is trying to affect righteous outrage and request vengeance, but he has yet to really give a good reason for Mastin being scum, and his case on me is solely based on OMGUS and reaction to the case against him; in fact, there's not a single independent point he's made against me OR Mastin.

And yet, if he were to magically flip Town, we're supposed to get lynched.

No.

Town does this sort of thing (I've developed a bit of a habit of it) but they ONLY do it when accompanied by a full list of reads, comprehensive cases on those who mislynched them, etc. Nero has done nothing of the kind, which makes his indignation entirely feigned.

[Pine]

Actually, Mastin scum meta is to bus the fuck out of his buddies. NY129 is a good example.

OH HEY. NERO WAS IN THAT.

[Pine]

Link to Mastin ISO in NY129

Mastin was scumbuddies with T-Bone and Nachomamma. Just for giggles, CTRL-F and search for mentions of T-Bone, then Nacho. Almost literally, every single mention busses the everliving fuck out of them. Mastin almost rode that wave to victory.

In fact, if Mastin does end up being scum, which I doubt, I'm going to be looking for his buddies within his top several targets out of the gate.

OH HEY

Guess what that means? That means that Mastin's reads are ALWAYS a good place to find scum. He's good as Town, and busses a lot as scum. GUARANTEED, most or all of the scum are in his initial scum lists.

Good game.

Unfortunately, now that I've been pissed off to the point of revealing my hidden ninja insight on Mastin, it becomes obsolete, at least in games I play with him

[Pine]

I am not a Mason.

Mastin is a dude.

Mastin has already bussed his buddies, if he is scum.

Mastin is among the better Town players I've had the pleasure of playing with. Please defend your allegation that he routinely plays "anti-Town at best".

[Pine]

The

fact

that you bus isn't the insight. The insight is that your reads are good to go regardless of your alignment.

Because

you bus like a mofo, whenever I'm Town I can just hop on your train and trust it to take me somewhere.

[Pine]

Oh? Why's that?

I'm eagerly awaiting your answer to this one, because if sheeping a known arch-busser isn't a good idea, I'm not entirely sure we're playing the same game.

[Pine]

I find it pretty laughable to accuse me of doing nothing but follow Mastin. I've let him lead, but my follow-up actions have been far from passive, leading to more interactions with the suspects that further condemn them.

Mastin and I have worked together before. He's better at insight, I'm better at shaking the trees and seeing things fall out.

[Pine]

Real Town BP actually wouldn't mind dying, as a Town flip would instantly condemn the counterclaim.

Anyone who votes other than Mist after that selfvote-justkidding-AtE fest goes next. No excuses.

PE: Nero AGAIN with the false dichotomies.

[Pine]

If one of them flips Town, the other is DEFINITELY scum. If one flips scum, the other might be either. How is this so fucking hard to understand? If you would hold off on misrepresenting, discrediting, and trying to break our Town Alliance Superhero Team in our Fortress of Bro-Solidarity, you'd actually understand the discussions that don't directly affect you.

[Pine]

You know I have a hard time resisting the stupid. Besides, in this case, it elucidates the case and contingencies for the people who are just watching and not engaging in the discussion. And there's a depressing number of those.

[Pine]

Hard to do when you have a furry chipmunk/squid in a skirt and a girlish face for an avatar. And a username that is very close to a girl's name.

[Pine]

Please prove the allegation of Mastin calling "at least ten people" scum. I recall around five or sic, which is dead on for a game this size when you include an SK.

[Pine]

We're still going? Two more votes on Mist, plox.

[Pine]

Yeah. We need a flip to progress further.

[Pine]

Wow, I almost missed this.

Sooooo....

Zombiepug, Tajun, mastin (3 guaranteed scum, slam dunk/homerun/touchdown)

possible extra partners: shattered viewpoint, pine, Lowell, bvoigt

Vote Count:

Mist Beauty (9, L-2):

Zombeh-Pug

,

bvoigt

,

Lowell

, Isa,

mastin2

,

Pine

, sorgster,

Shattered Viewpoint

,

Tajun

Tajun (4, L-7): Furcolow, Sampson, ConSpiracy, Haze
Shattered Viewpoint (3, L-8): Alabaska J, Bogre, Princess Kiwi
Alabaska J (2, L-9): Amrun, PeregrineV
sorgster (1, L-10):

MacDougall

zMuffinMan

Not Voting (2): Mist Beauty, Nero Cain

11 votes are required to lynch, 6 at deadline.
If deadline were to hit right now, Mist Beauty would be lynched.

Deadline:

Wednesday, November 30, ~11:59 PM US CST (GMT-6) (

(expired on 2011-12-01 02:00:00)

)

And I am making this too easy?

Quote tags fixed. - ToD

olololol

Good catch.

Mastin, I'm starting to reconsider Tajunscum, especially when Mist flips scum. I don't see either of them as experienced enough/bright enough for your proposed double-bus-counterclaim situation, and I doubt they got coached to it in a pregame. Discarding that possibility, Amrun's logic about scum/SK counterclaiming in that situation being bad is sound.