NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[mastin2]

Let's see if by the time that everyone's finished confirming if I've finished doing my research (reading MD topics) for my soul search.

And then if I can actually make it work from the start of a game, rather than half-way through.

...Oh, wait. Khan Man.
So much for me being logical.

(Confirm.)

[mastin2]

KK are you town?

Bluntly?

No.

[mastin2]

I have a section on the difference it makes on play in my thread. (Its town section needs...a little work. Part of my soul search will be reviewing and updating my MD work, everything from Mastin's Playertype Theory, to Mastin's Insane Tells, to Mastin's Guide to Playing Well, to Mastin's Guide to Scumhunting, to Mastin's Guide to VCA, heck, even A view on cops. All in the effort to make a better me.
Did you know I've posted in 149 MD threads? I've been going through many of them to see what pieces of advice I can pick up which has been lost over time as my play atrophied. Got around 33 left, though I won't be visiting the ones I know are irrelevant. Plus I've got a few which I've saved the links for, but which I only skimmed. It's a lot of work, but if the end result is a noticeable improvement in my play whereas I've previously stagnated for months? That progress will make it all worth the time put in.)

[mastin2]

Glad your town.

Your funeral, mate. That is, unless...

Who else is? Mastin? I don't want to be town with him.

Question, then--why aren't you proposing a quicklynch on

me

?

[mastin2]

(Arg. This seems like the same old me. No improvement at all. *Might* be due to me not having actually sifted through the stuff I've gathered so far, but still...what good does doing all that theory research do, if I can't turn it into practice? >_<)

[mastin2]

Wait.

I got it.

The answer.

A QT.

I haven't made one yet. Time to remedy that. I'd say "I'll be back soon", but quite frankly, I'm not going to continue posting here 'til the game begins; that'd be what old-me would do. Rather, I'll make an effort to use the QT more. So, uh, be back when the game begins.

[mastin2]

So I've got reads on almost 80% of the playerlist.

Over 50% of them are generated primarily from two players.

[mastin2]

Mod:

Will likely be V/LA most of tomorrow. Big day. (Shame, since I've got a LOT of work to do.)

[mastin2]

VOTE: Kublai Khan.

We're six-for-six with him being scum in games I play in. Let's go 7-for-7. (Fallacy? What fallacy, I see no fallacy!*)

*Yup.

spectacular

start to being logical, Mastin.

[mastin2]

Broken up post, for fear of 500 error.

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION:

So I'm going to attempt to explain my reads logically. This...probably will not go well. I'll do my best, though, since, well, I really want to push myself to be more logical, and play less irrationally.

(Given that I'm up against Khan Man--who I've never won a battle of the wits against--this actually will be more of a mental challenge than any other game could offer me. I can throw my weight around when needed. Heck, I might even be able to get him lynched despite having the objectively-weaker argument, because I'm quite charismatic when I need to be.

But I wouldn't have grown from it at all, as that's what I do in all of my games, getting people lynched by pushing hard and aggressively, rather than doing any real convincing with logical arguments. So I'll at least try to use logic, even though it's probably a losing battle. How else can I grow, other than by fighting against someone I'm hopelessly outclassed against? I certainly don't get better by pounding against someone who's worse than I am. Anyway, enough rambling. To the point...)

[mastin2]

PART TWO: STRONGER TOWNREADS--

Town

:

(Roughly ordered strongest to weakest.)

redFF

:

I have a super-secret tell that red tripped in one of his posts, which makes him (to me) almost confirmed town, as I canNOT see it being faked by him as scum, and it seemed quite legitimate. (Not the best start for me being logical, given as how I can't explain by showing you which post or why it's a towntell, as it wouldn't be a supersecretz towntell if I told you everything about it. )

His posts also are quite reminiscent of what I remember of his townplay, so that also helps things out.

scooby

:

I had a townread on all three of our last-to-confirm players before scooby had even posted, because of the interactions which had transpired already in-thread. This alone, however, wasn't what earned scooby his spot (as it amounted to little more than gut, even to me), however--what makes scooby a relatively strong townread is people's willingness to attack scooby, a sure sign that he actually is town.

In particular, Khan's passive attack against scooby here:

Pine... You know better. There is scum motivation in avoiding posting content until you see where other players stand on issues. scooby is deserving of the pressure that The Mini-Librarian is trying to exert.

...Was quite discouraging to any thought of scooby-scum.

shotty

:

Much like scooby, this townread is less based off of what shotty has done, and more based off of what others have done. (It's the way that was recommended to read VIs in one of the threads I browsed in MD. So this was actually a piece of advice that I HAVE incorporated into my play.) The willingness of at least a quarter of our playerlist to lynch shotty (I haven't done an exact count on the number willing to lynch him, but I do believe it's a significant amount) strongly suggests that shotty is in fact not a scumlynch. (That, or he ticked off his buddies THAT badly in the scum QT already. )

Lady Lambdadelta

:

Admittedly, I don't really know LLD's playstyle that well, despite having been in at least two games with her. (Probably more.) So I can't really say for certain that this is her townplay. But her posts definitely sent off a townvibe overall to me. That, combined with her interactions with Ninja and drmy (we'll get to those two later) among others make her a relatively strong townread.

Nero Cain

:

I'll admit, Nero's posts give off a bad vibe, but a few things do place him firmly in the town category. For starters, there's his willingness to antagonize a player. (In this case, HezLucky.) As scum, that just brings unnecessary attention to oneself, and potentially creates problems for them in the long-run.

Furthermore, there's also the fact that multiple people seem to be expressing early suspicion in him. Yes, it's a tell which normally applies to VIs, but I think in his case, it applies as well. He's basically painting a target over his head, which reads "EASY PICKINGS". His play comes across as being weak enough to be attacked, but due to his veteran player status, has none of the fear scum'd have from attacking a VI like shotty.

To give specific examples of scum taking advantage of this, you need look no further than Khan:

@Nero Cain -
You made the argumentum ad populum that drmyshottyizsik is a "well-known VI", then tried to shift the burden of prooving your own assertion onto NihilisticNinja who seems legitimately confused by your behavior. And so am I. If anyone is drawing out the argument and making it "tedious and a distraction" it's you. You are acting scummy and shifty for no concievable reason. I looked up and found a game with both you and drmyshottyizsik in 2 minutes, why can't you?

(Which is a reverse of his original initial townread), and NihilisticNinja, whose ISO is half-devoted to Nero.

All of this combined makes Nero among my stronger townreads, despite my initial doubt of him.

[mastin2]

PART THREE: WEAKER TOWNREADS--

Librarian

:

Mostly based off of meta, I'll admit. Librarian and I just finished a game where we were scumbuddies. In it, both Uber and I were aggressive, and Librarian chose to be more conservative to create a contrast between us. (It worked; Librarian was a legitimate townread of mine along with most of the town until lylo where POE began to suggest him.) This game, he's appearing far less so, showing aggression.

This doesn't necessarily make him town (if he has conservative scumbuddies, it'd make sense for him to not be conservative himself), but it's enough to have gotten him a townread at this stage in the game.

Junpei

:

Another case of a supersecretz towntell I found for him. It's not that strong of one, but it's strong enough that based off of what I've seen of Junpei, he's got a spot on my townlist.

Pine

:

Another

case of a supersecretz towntell, but this being Pine, I can't really be certain of it. I've always had trouble reading Pine, to the point where he's normally got his own category of "PINE". As part of my effort to become the new me, however, I need to shake my bias towards him and think things through a little more objectively. I can't tell quite yet (given the early nature of the game), and most likely will need to look at his interactions closer along with the nature of his posts' tone, but he does kinda give off a townvibe overall, combined with the tell to make him--albeit weak--a townread of mine.

Candy Corn Vampire

:

Mainly earned this spot due to Ninja, like vijay and Maxous below, but CCV's interactions with Ninja are stronger. (Of note, however, is that while CCV is the strongest town of the three if Ninja's town, he's also the strongest scum if Ninja's town.)

vijay

:

I'll admit--vijay looks incredibly suspicious to me. Then why is he a townread? Purely for his interactions, in this case, with Ninja (and to some extent, drmy).

Maxous

:

Like vijay, only more! Or, well, in this case, less. As in, less of a townread. His posts give me a bad vibe, but his interaction (Ninja, again) sorta suggests town.

Benmage

:

His interactions with Khan make him weakly leaning towards town. His unintentionally playing also added a slight towniness to my read on him, but I have to say, overall, he's probably my weakest townread. Well, of people having posted, that is.

moaner and sorgster

:

Like with scooby, they started off as gut townreads. They remain gut townreads.

You'll note by this point that a LOT of my reads are based off of Khan and Ninja. (To some extent, drmy as well.) Which I myself lampshaded. Over 40% of the playerlist I have reads on come at least partially from around 8% of the total playerlist.

Now with that out of the way...

(Disclaimer: All further sections in here are either out-of-date or incomplete, but I figure I might as well post 'em.)

[mastin2]

PART FOUR: NULL--

Null

:

jason

:

Can't read him, yet.

HezLucky

:

I've seen Hez as town, and I've been linked to his play as scum, but I can't really say that I remember what his play was like. He kinda gives off townvibes, but I'm not sure, yet.

Macross, Firestarter, and Praetyr

:

There's nothing to read. By POE, I'm strongly beginning to suspect at least two scum in them, though.

rack

:

rack's posts instantly gave off scummy vibes, for much the same reason that Ninja's did, which CCV said best:

These questions don't really need answers and more amount to him trying to think of things to say rather that saying things he thinks needed to be said.

That was my thought, exactly. However, I also had the thought that, if rack were an alt, that it wouldn't be as bad. rack's a hydra, apparently, but the same thought process applies, giving me some doubt about my scumread on them.

And now for the moment of truth...

(Note: Hez probably should be moved to town. Also, I'm not sure who Psyche is on the playerlist, but whoever it is needs to be not above null, since I haven't really liked Psyche's posts. rack *might* be moving to my scumlist, but I need to confirm a few things first. I'm kinda guessing Praetyre as town, and at least one of [if not both] Macross and--in particular--Firestarter to be scum, but I haven't read anything since day 1 officially started and I've mostly been skimming since, oh, page six or so, meaning said reads are in need of updating.)

[mastin2]

PART FIVE: KHAN, SECTION ONE--

Scum

:

Kublai Khan Man

:

People might think that my random vote (which I haven't actually made yet, as I'm typing this up while we're still in confirmation; it's just that I planned out said random vote the moment I signed up for the game) was just RVS joking. In a way, they're right, in that I intended to make that vote regardless of the circumstances of the game.

...But one might note that I'm not unvoting right now. And anyone paying attention to the above sections can figure out why--I have a legitimate scumread on Khan, and am about 90% sure on him being scum.

Much of it amounts to the same thing I have against Nihilistic Ninja, in that Khan appears to be trying to contribute helpfully...while not actually doing anything helpful. He's playing subtlely, taking a passive stance in this game, pushing things indirectly. Exactly as I would expect from him if he were scum.

He's being slightly withdrawn, and overall, his post structure is highly...well, structured. It's careful wording, an artificial construction meant to get people thinking he's town. And the sad thing is, it's worked perfectly, as the only person other than myself to have picked up on it was LLD, noting herself that something in his words seemed off, though she couldn't pin what it was, observing that by the words alone, he would look town.

But one of the things I instantly took from my research that I had begun to forget is that the ONE thing which has ALWAYS given me the edge over Khan is that I have an ability which I like to think of being unique, in that I DON'T look at just the literal wording, and I look beneath the surface.

(I'll try my hardest not to rely on it, though, since it's difficult for me to explain.) By pure logic, Khan is probably one of the strongest players on the site, in that he can carefully tailor his words to suit his needs--what he says appeals to people's senses, making them think that what he says, well, makes sense.

However, another piece of advice to take into mind is to look at the motive behind the words. Most players won't do this without flips (LLD seems to think it's a scumtell, even), but it's part of my signature style to observe interactions before flips.

In this case, with looking at Khan's posts--are his posts consistently pushing for a scum agenda, or for a town agenda? To me, he is distinctly the former.

But I can't rely on that alone to get others to lynch him, now, can I?

Was Jesus Jewish?

This is the first instance of Khan being cryptic. Instead of being blunt and to the point, Khan takes a roundabout way of answering things.

I'm starting to wonder if there's a point to having an open thread confirmation stage. We have our role PMs, either dam the river or open the floodgates.

And this is an example of Khan saying something which is made to make himself look more town, by saying something which on the surface sounds kinda town...but when you think about it, is nothing more than fluff, which had no actual town motive to say. It furthers his scum agenda, of trying to make himself look town, because it looks like a legitimate question, but when you look at it again...is it? No, it's little more than fluff.

mastin2 could be town. Time will tell. I'm in no rush to lynch him. He'll slip up later if he's scum.

This quote is wrong in more ways than one, too. Khan's only once seen me as scum. When he himself was also scum. It's the infamous Emerald City game, which got him the title he now so proudly wears, in that he claimed miller. I pushed him, hunted him, tried everything I could do to lynch him, because (just as now) I had him pegged as scum. People didn't buy my logic (nothing new there), and I was lynched for (essentially) being seen as irrational.

So he's never actually seen me "slip up" as scum. He's only seen my townplay. (As even in said scum game, I wasn't pushing a scum agenda in trying to get him lynched. Quite the opposite, I was trying to help the town out, as my faction was already at a disadvantage, so I wanted to send a "SCREW YOU" to them. It backfired, obviously, as the only reason the game wasn't a completely perfect Vermillion-scum win is because the Cerulean Scum nightkilled one of their members.)

But there's also the fact that he's taking the passive stance on me. I could be town, but he's not saying one way or another if he thinks I am or not. He's also leaving the door open to lynch me later-on, via the (wrong, as pointed out in great length above) statement about me slipping up later-on. It basically means Khan can try to lynch me at any point if my logic (which is already my weak point, mind you. >_M) begins to degrade, which he could then use as "proof" that I am "slipping", and am therefore scum.

(Then again, you can't really slip if you've already fallen off the slope... )

[mastin2]

PART SIX: KHAN, SECTION TWO--

Nero Cain, drmyshotgun, & Maxous are earlytown.

Note the later reversearound on Nero. But that aside, part of my suspicion on drmy comes from the fact that I'd expect Khan to put one of his buddies in the earlytown slot. It's not Nero, due to the way Khan had his reversal on him, leaving drmy and Maxous. Of which, Maxous is a weak townread due to his interactions. HezLucky is also on the list as well, technically, but is more likely town due to the "he's wrong, though" comment.

Speaking of which, that comment itself is further evidence of Khan saying something which sounds town, but really isn't--since Hez said he was going to tunnel on Nero, and Nero wanted Hez to tunnel on him, all things made abundantly clear early-on. Khan ignoring that and treating it as a legitimate early scumread (which people ignoring the context would see, thinking Khan was town for saying it) when anyone reading the context would understand that what Khan was saying wasn't town at all.

Candy Corn Vampire has some bad mojo going on. Not a fan of vijay2vasandani either.

Again, this is him not taking a strong stance (CCV), and him attacking an easy target (vijay). Vijay's play has honestly degraded, to the point where he used to be a strong player, but now is seen widely as a VI, on some players' blacklists due to his antics. Khan sensed weakness, and immediately jumped onto it. For CCV, it was similar--CCV had posts which were weak enough to get a start on, but which Khan could Edited 04-11-2012 02:47 PM
always back out of if necessary.


...And that's as far as I got. I didn't get to finish on Khan (but there's of course more), I didn't get to cover anything by Ninja, nor have I gotten around to drmy. (Those three are my strongest scumreads, in the order Khan-Ninja-drmy, obviously.) Of note, however, I predicted 5-6 scum, hence my suspicion on Firestarter, Macross, and rack.

I'll see if I can finish it later, but this'll do for now.

(*Insert obligatory accusation that "Mastin is tunneling hardcore on Khan!" here*. )

[mastin2]

I'm trying an experiment--I created a lengthy response to Junpei in my QT, but didn't post it; it was rambly and not that on-topic. (Have done similar things for other posts.) However, I'm curious to see if people don't mind once it's cut down. Let me know what you think.

God dammit Mastin, how many games are you in?

Four, including the one I'm moderating--my self-imposed limit.

Mastin I can already tell that your massive walls could EASILY be trimmed down a ton.

Conflicting interest--logic's hard to explain, causing rambling. Will attempt to fix.

You are not following ANY of your advice you make threads on; it's great that you KNOW what to do, but you are completely failing to APPLY that knowledge.

I'm aware; I even said so in-thread. Doing my best, but it's difficult to make theory work in practice.

Are you scum intentionally swamping the game?

Bluntly? No. Never intentionally. Over my dead body. Accidentally, on the other hand... (Working on it.)

[mastin2]

Hmm, probably'd get better feedback with this included. (Forgive lack of italics; did not convert html to bbc.)

Spoiler: Original for reference

"God dammit Mastin, how many games are you in?" Actually, not too many. I'm at my self-imposed limit of games where I'm alive in: three, this game, another in New York, and a theme. Plus my modded game to make four, my absolute limit. There are a couple extra games where I'm dead in, which of course means I still follow along, but of course, since I'm not posting actively in 'em, they take less time away and are virtually nonexistent.

I've been down the road of being in too many games at once. It's not a fun place to be. Trust me, I do know better.

"Mastin I can already tell that your massive walls could EASILY be trimmed down a ton." Conflicting interests. Believe it or not, I have gone entire games without posting walls, in that I was relatively concise. In said games, however, I was basically rapidfire posting to replace it, my thoughts were chaotic, I was throwing out a ton of reasoning and giving my reads frequently...but never logic.

Logic for me is...hard. So when I try to do things logically, my posts get a little bit...longer. I'm trying to better my play in all ways, yes, so I do need to trim down on the walls a little, but I view being logical as more important than being concise. Not that I can't have both (I'll try), it's just that given the choice between one or the other, right now, I need logic more.

"You are not following ANY of your advice you make threads on; it's great that you KNOW what to do, but you are completely failing to APPLY that knowledge." I said as much, didn't I? That I had done a lot of reading, but wasn't able to yet make use of most of it? I'm TRYING. But I only have so much time to devote to MD, and when there, it's not like I can read something and INSTANTLY incorporate it into my play. Theoretically, yes, but in practice, I need to focus on that idea, keeping it in mind, while making the post, and even then, it may or may not actually work.

This is hard enough as it is. Resisting the urge to post this, for instance, is progress to me. Not very good progress, mind you, but progress nonetheless.

"Are you scum intentionally swamping the game?" I'll say this clear, right here and now. Bluntly. And to the fact:
No.
Over. my. dead. body.

Not dead-in-the-game-body.

Dead-in-real-life.

I would never.

EVER.

Intentionally abuse my meta as scum. Not now, anyway. Maybe I used to, but even then, I didn't start intentionally, and hated myself once I realized it but continued to do it, anyway.

It goes against my principles. It goes against everything I am as a player. To intentionally spam, for the sake of confusion alone. That's not my style. Not anymore. Not intentionally. No, I wouldn't do that as scum. Not intentionally.

And obviously, since there's no benefit as town, I'd never do it intentionally here, either. It just...happened.

[mastin2]

Ohgod. Oh, god. Firestarter. really. is. scum. That post. just.

painfully

so. IioA, bad reads, scummy tone...

I need to go back to my QT to type out the details in more...coherence.

In the mean time...

---

I'm not going to ignore the rest of his post, but there's not much point in me responding to the rest of it without having thought things through, first. I *could* maybe get some supporters, but I wouldn't grow, and Khan'd massacre me more than he already is. So I need my QT for him as well. But for now,

One being his normal one where he considers me scum based on out-of-game statistics, and another one where he pretends my name is "randomnewuserguy" and reads the game in a more neutral fashion. I know it's more work, but could this be done?

If you were "randomnewuserguy", I'd have a scumread on you nonetheless. (It's not because it's you, Khan. I'd love the day where I see you as town [it is sadly not this day]. It's because I saw you post, exactly as I'd expect scum to, and interactions strongly support it. You're not scum because you're Khan; you're scum because you're scum.) But I could. Probably will.

(Yeah, need my QT. Rambling.)

[mastin2]

More coherent, now. To explain my stance more clearly:

Firestarter tripped dozens of scumtells in that post, and is now on my scumlist above drmy. Specifics later (need to type them up).

Khan's not scum due to confirmation bias spawned from our history. He's scum for the reasons previously listed--
He's playing as expected from a scum player; any similar player (e.g. Ironhead*, a logical player) would have an identical read. His posts, his interactions, and others' (in particular, my other scumspects) interactions with him. No different than reasons for finding any player to be scum.

Explanation will come, though his request will be honored, since the lists will be nearly identical,

because

my read is not based off of biases, but on his and others' play. Listing ~6 players as scum, then removing one (i.e., Khan) won't change much, since said removed player played little part in the formation of other reads.

*Probably not the best player example, but the first which came to mind.

[mastin2]

I kinda have the impression that if scum had daytalk, they've just posted a message similar to what Hiraki posted in 144, with regards to mcqueen.

That is, "Okay, Firestarter has to die. NOW."

[mastin2]

I suppose I was a bit hyped up, but sheesh. None of this stuff is persuasive.

I

did

say logic's not my strongsuit...

Then again, I don't think you will ever need convincing from me. (Hint, hint. ) So no harm done.

[mastin2]

Mastin2: Why does your big post about Kublai convey the sense that you don't believe you'll be listened to?

Experience. Newb742, I won only due to my cop claim. NY 96, he massacred me. NY 132, I lynched myself to get him lynched. (Long story.) Stargate Mafia, he was a universal townread (including me), so had I thought him scum, I wouldn't have been able to convince anyone.

What'd make this game any different? Especially given...

Kublai Khan Eh. Mastin's reasoning doesn't do much for me. The "was Jesus Jewish?" and *talking about the game starting* points are ok, but the others are really pushing it and overall KK feels like town.

...You're not believing me, are you? Yeah, my belief that nobody will listen to me seems quite justified.

But now for a counter-question.

Mini-Librarian
Mastin2

Drmyshottyizsik
Candy Corn Vampire
LLD
Vijay

JasonT1981
Macros
Junpei
Praetyre

You give no reasoning on these reads. Would you mind fixing that?

[mastin2]

You know, I find it highly ironic that the guy who has a reputation for walling has to say: STOP. WALLING.

...At least, so inefficiently. You people keep on quoting most of the posts, rather than just the relevant sections.

[mastin2]

Mastin2: Are you just asking for the sake of asking, or do you actually want the reasoning?

Wouldn't have asked if I didn't want an answer. Yes, I want reasoning.

---

As it stands, I've got a Khan-Ninja-Firestarter scumteam; drmy's been knocked off for obvious reasons. rack

might

be joining, but that'd still be only 4/6; I am about to reconsider a few things. Be back later.

[mastin2]

Khan, you've basically lost your edge over me.

You know what? Nevermind. I'm just going to ignore you until you're dead. You're the second worst mafia player I've ever seen. Please confine yourself to the newbie queue from now on until you know what the fuck you're doing. (Hint: Don't roleclaim for no fucking reason).

[sarcasm]Yeah, I've totally got The Mini-Librarian's back in this game[/sarcasm]

This just lost you any allies you had left. When I stop slacking off, I'll elaborate if needed, but I think everyone can see for themselves why this was a scumclaim from Khan.

[mastin2]

Among others?

Shift in tone.

It's one of the few dead giveaways Khan has as scum. See 742, preclaim (smug) and postclaim (panicked) for just one example. Memory's a bit fuzzy, but I think NY 142 had a change in tone as well.

The mockery within is poorly disguised.

Basically, Khan puts up a good act--but when you introduce an element of chaos (like, say, drmy. Or me, when I was a VI; that mighta been the real reason I had an edge over him ), he can't react in a convincing manner. His act falls apart, since he doesn't know how to deal with the situation.

...Not the best description, but I think you get the idea. There's more to it, of course, and I'm forgetting another two or three points in regards to the shift in tone alone (not to mention the things not regarding tone), but it's enough to give you an idea for now.

[mastin2]

Typo. Was 132; I even looked it up to make sure. Not on my laptop (you can kinda tell, as my laptop's where my QT is, so rambling's happening more when I'm not using it ), so keyboard's not what I'm used to.

[mastin2]

This is not happening.

I can't believe this is happening.

I'm not doing this.

UNVOTE: Khan.

Quite frankly? I got a little

too

much support on the Khan wagon. I need to think things through.

[mastin2]

There was CCV, DV (didn't vote, but expressed intention), rack, and then vijay. (I stopped reading immediately after that to unvote.)

I need a rethink.

[mastin2]

(This is why it's a bad idea to wake up and go straight to a game--my head's not entirely here, as I'm typing this before breakfast. AKA, before coffee. )

rack's vote on Khan actually seemed town-motivated to me. Vijay's vote even moreso. I dunno why; just gut for now. (I'm regressing. Hence, need for a rethink.)

CCV's reasons came before Khan's flipout (and were in fact part of the reason for said flipout), and weren't influenced by me.

I dunno. I just don't know.

[mastin2]

DeasVail:

So I know *I* announced a change in playstyle, but I've noticed one from *you* as well. Why the change?

[mastin2]

I'm going crazy. VOTE: Candy Corn Vampire. And all of a sudden, I got the strong urge to call Pine a CCV buddy, despite how he

was

on my townlist.

(AAAAAAAAAAAARG!!! >_< This was not what I wanted.)

[mastin2]

rack's town. Of the 8 on there, I've got (current or old) 4 scumreads present, and only one strong townread. And that's just those officially on the wagon; others (like myself) have expressed at least interest. Combined, this sets off LOTS of warning bells.

[mastin2]

HezLucky, jasonT1981, Junpei, Macross, Nero, Praetyre, and scooby:

You're the only players I couldn't see a clear read on rack when doing a quick ISO of the playerlist. Could you give your read on them?

[mastin2]

8 voters, 2 former-voters, 3 interested players, 13 to lynch.
Rack's been pseudolynched already, even without the above players' opinions. Look at the names involved.

[Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, drmyshotgun, Firestarter, Kublai Khan, Pine, Lady Lambdadelta, Candy Corn Vampire], {NihilisticNinja, Psyche}, (mastin2, Maxous, DV).
[Voting]{Voted}(Interested).

Tell me, LLD, does this look like a town-driven wagon to you?

[mastin2]

Put another way, LLD--you gave a list of suspects. Three of them are on the wagon. (A fourth being rack.) So unless your scumreads on the three (myself, Pine, and CCV) are outdated, or you think that rack is being powerbussed, there's no way for rack to be scum.

[mastin2]

Show me where you voted for Rack?

Because if you haven't (like I suspect) you're doing nothing more than cheerleading the wagon incase it goes through to a lynch.

Which, PS, is scummy if Rack flips scum.

My point exactly. I haven't, but I expressed interest.
Maxous hasn't, but he's expressed interest.
DV hasn't, but he's expressed potential interest.

Psyche and Ninja aren't on it, but were on it, and haven't (to my knowledge) actually changed their scumreads on rack.

The wagon on rack is not 8. It's 13, and it takes 13 to lynch. We pseudolynched rack, with the names I listed. [Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, drmyshotgun, Firestarter, Kublai Khan, Pine, Lady Lambdadelta, Candy Corn Vampire], {NihilisticNinja, Psyche}, (mastin2, Maxous, DV).

You have multiple scum/nullreads on the wagon. Myself included.

I have it moreso; on the wagon, I've only got four townreads, two of them weak; the rest are null or scum.

I ask again. Given these 13 players, does it look like it's a town-driven wagon?

It certainly doesn't to me.

[mastin2]

I'll give you that, but not in the way you think--they're not equal; potential interest is

more

important and valuable than actual voting is. Not (as you were probably implying) less.

[mastin2]

They are valuable. But they're not important.

What they are is cheerleading. Not wanting to be on the wagon, but appearing like they support it, when in reality they do not support it enough to vote it.

Exactly. And at least one of your suspects having done this doesn't change how you view the wagon at all?

Like I said. rack's town. The pseudolynch on him looks horribad to me, and quite frankly, I can't seem to understand why from your perspective it doesn't at least look fishy.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

Right now, feeling a little bit...lost. I'm a little busy right now dealing with more important things than playing, but I might be back later tonight.

Unvote, VOTE: Firestarter.

Whose glaringly scummy on it?

New-and-old, I've had scumreads on Khan, Firestarter, Pine, CCV, Ninja, and Psyche. 6/13. Null, I've got Maxous and DV. 2/13; total 8/13. Weak town I've got two, you and TML. Townread, I've got 1, LLD. Strong townread, I've got 1, drmy. Total of 4 townreads, out of 13, versus eight null or scumreads. Yeah.

Mastin, why do you want to join a wagon that you think is scum driven?

I don't. But I did. I was part of the pseudolynch. At the time the wagon was at its strongest, I was a supporter of it. Hence why I include myself. I no longer wish to lynch rack, as I firmly beleive them to be town.

[mastin2]

You are. You're my strongest townread, in fact.

[mastin2]

Sure, why not.

Unvote, Vote: Pine

.

[mastin2]

Hey, Grey.

You town?

If so, tell me who needs death.
/feelslikesheeping.

[mastin2]

I'll be honest with you all--in this game, I feel a little bit out of my league. I'm having difficulty getting reads, but not because of apathy (that'd imply I didn't care; I do, just have difficulty locking down reads, as they waver from town to scum and back). A lot of players here are of a different caliber than I am, be it better (like GreyICE) or worse (VIs), making it harder to relate. I'm not in my element, compared to other games where I do nicely.

It almost made me want to replace out--almost. The reason I haven't is that I realized that's exactly why I wanted to keep playing in this game in the first place: because if I'm never pushed outside my comfort zone, if I'm always in my element, then I'd stagnate and never grow. Only by being in a place where I'm WEAKER than most people would I stand a chance of actually getting better. By being in a place where I feel uncomfortable, weaker, and overall kinda useless, I can try to push myself.

I'm going to try and reset everyone to null, and see what happens when I take a look at the game again.

[mastin2]

Grey, name a single game we've played together where my reads were even close to as good as yours were. I can't think of any; every time you and I are in the same game, I seem to suck compared to you.

For instance. Shotty has been a townread of mine. I'll take another look, though.

[mastin2]

For what it's worth, I've started a comprehensive post containing 24 sections (one for each player and "other stuff", like VCA and miscellaneous comments in my QT) which I've been working on trying to complete. (Yes, most of it'll be spoilered. ) Showing original reads, old reads (if different), gut-reads (current-right-at-this-very-moment, if different), and current reads (future-after-I've-done-my-work-reads, if different). I've gone through all the original and some of the old reads content that's in my QT, but haven't covered in-thread reads, yet (though they're mostly the same), yet alone, having started the reread.

Basically, the idea's to show how I got my reads, explain why they morphed, and then give an update based off of all the new content.

I'd prefer nobody speedlynch rack until I finish, since contrary to appearances, I sometimes

do

give valuable insight into a game, insight which can on occasion earn me the fear (and nightkill) of the scum.

[mastin2]

Also for the record, Pine's particular method of pushing on rack SCREAMS scumposting, with rack as town by proxy, as it doesn't scream scum-bussing. Call it a "gut-right-now" read. But if memory serves, that's where my vote is.

Have to admit I've been slacking off a little bit over the weekend (I'm a little busy for the next few weekends*), though that'll have to change.

*Speaking of which,

Mod: V/LA the first Friday of May and lasting 'til Monday

. Pacific Northwest Square Dance Festival and all. (

What?

It's the state dance! ) Generally leaves me with little-to-no internet access. (That said, it's actually in my state this time, so no traveling to Canada, at least.)

[mastin2]

Head A, however, (that's me) is none other than Nobody Special.

Funnily enough, before I realized you were a hydra, I was thinking you were an alt of Nobody Special. It just felt like it fit.

[mastin2]

Moments like these are what make me remember Antihero replaced CCV and that I had a CCV-Pine scumteam in my head.

[mastin2]

Also, following traditional scumtells, Pine's avoidance of the rack wagon despite pushing it hardcore generally is a sign that the wagon's already scumtastic. Which probably means 3-4 scum on it.

[mastin2]

rack (11)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

Firestarter, Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta, drmyshotgun,

Maxous

, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain,

FakeGod

Bolded-->Major interest, italics-->minor interest. (Keep in mind Pine's also a former-and-honorary member of this wagon, Ninja's a former member, Psyche's a former member, and DV showed interest, so they're also under the microscope.*)

*Arg, nine people is three too many. I need to stop slacking off and get stronger reads.

[mastin2]

There won't be a tomorrow, LLD; the bastards just lynched rack by my count.

Now KK's response was scumtastic, and so was this sudden rush of votes. It's possible that it's a single scumteam, but I was actually rushing home since I realized while driving "crud, this is probably multiscum". I'll see what I can do before the day ends.

[mastin2]

First off, why I suddenly think this game is multiscum.
-24-player games with a single scumteam are incredibly rare. The last time I remember being in one, in fact, was Mortal Kombat, which was meant to LOOK like two scumteams. So, number of players in the game.
-Related, ideal balance suggests a single scumteam would be six players. However, when was the last time you saw a six-man scumteam? I quite frankly don't think I've seen one in a long time. And even then, probably a theme. (Again, might be Mortal Kombat. Or maybe Stars Aligned. Games that old.) Six scum is almost universally the realm of multiscum.
-The even number of players suggests a certain kind of symmetry to be present. 24 works out better than 25 or 23 for two scumteams.
-The town seems to be quick to bandwagon, as shown by the rack lynch when we have nearly two weeks 'til deadline. rack's not the only wagon to have gotten a lot of support, either.
-The way everyone seems to be behaving seems...different...to me. Like it's somehow off. That things aren't the way they should be if this game were single-faction.
-Related, my inability to scumhunt effectively. That itself might not seem much to you, but as Khan said, most of my scumhunting works by interactions: and if the scum are legitimately scumhunting, it makes it incredibly difficult for me to catch them, basically making any time I DO catch one a lucky shot in the dark.

It's not enough to have me firmly convinced, but it's enough that the possibility came to mind, and it does change how I go about the game. I'll double-check things after posting this, though.

[mastin2]

rack (13)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter, Kublai Khan, Lady Lambdadelta, drmyshotgun, Maxous, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain, FakeGod, Junpei, Pine, Antihero

Yeah, this is the official lynch. Add in Ninja's slot, Psyche's slot, and DV as former/former/potential members of the wagon, you get a grand total of 16 players here.

Now once more, Khan's reaction was super-scummy, and Junpei's jump on while accusing me was also super-scummy. He knew that by voting rack, he was at risk of ending the day, and yet he wanted more content from me, someone he suspected, he wants to push me yet votes rack, he wants me to be scum, yet he pushed rack instead...

Antihero's switch off looks like a quick attempt at towncred; his hammer looks horribad. Pine's place on the wagon is even worse. This makes me think Antihero, Pine, Khan, and Junpei are all good picks for scum, with probably two more off the wagon.

[mastin2]

Pine (3) - scooby, vijay2vasandani, mastin2
Macros(3) - Pine, rack, DeasVail
Firestarter (2) - Code_X, redFF
Benmage (2) - HezLucky, Macros
Nero Cain (1)- drmyshottyizsik
redFF (1) - Junpei
Not Voting (1)- Psyche

These are the names off the wagon at the last votecount. Pine's joined the wagon since then, as has Junpei. CodeX was a former member of the wagon, via predecessor Ninja. Psyche's slot was also a former member of the wagon. DV had shown interest. I'm inclined to think at least one of these three are scum, but probably not two of them. (I'm not *that* good of a scumhunter, and the rack wagon isn't *that* scumdriven. )

That leaves {shotty, Hez, Macross, redFF, vijay, scooby} as containing one scum.

I have no clue who it'd be. And if the game IS multiscum, I have no clue what the teams would be at this point.

[mastin2]

That said, I'm kinda thinking that if Antihero were scum, that it might be single-faction, since if it were multiscum, unvoting then hammer-voting with such a flimsy excuse would be suicide, as redFF's natural reaction shows.

(Speaking of which, he's confirmed town, so can be crossed off from the list.)

If I had to guess who the sixth scum would be out of the names left...well, Hez wouldn't be my best bet, Macross wouldn't be scum with Antihero or Pine (though KK or Junpei might be possible), as mentioned not redFF, leaving the most likely as {shotty, vijay, scooby}. Of those three, I'm not sure. I HAD a townread on shotty via him being attacked, but in multiscum, that just means that his buddies aren't attacking him. (Will have to check who did attack him.) I had a townread on vijay ONLY due to my scumread on Ninja (which has faded), again useless if multiscum. I kinda sorta think he's town, though. I also had a townread on scooby via KK's attack on him, but will need to look at things again.

[mastin2]

And again, a reminder that the lynch went through despite my specific request not to, as I needed time to work on the post.

Of course, since I began thinking it was multiscum, I'd need to modify it, to account for both possibilities--what the scumteams would be if multiscum, and what the scumteam would be if not multiscum. But still, the post wasn't even close to complete, and now I won't get the chance to. I'm flying by pure instinct right now, basically, by speedreading and giving first thoughts on things. I don't have time to use the quicktopic, as if I do, the thread might be locked by the time I'm finished.

[mastin2]

I'll take my best shot at things.

1. Psyche <--Minor suspect, but gut right now says town.
2. Kublai Khan <--Major, MAJOR suspect; his reaction reeks of knowing rack was town.
3. scooby <--Probably town; look at his refusal to get on rack and pushing of Pine.
4. FakeGod jasonT1981 <--Probably town, by virtue of there being no way the rack wagon is THAT scumdriven.
5. Firestarter <--Probably town, by the same logic above.
6. The Mini-Librarian <--Same thing.
7. rack <--Confirmed town.
8. DeasVail <--Major suspect, especially with regards to consistently looking like he was on the edge of voting rack, but never following through.
9. Macros <--Not scum with the people attacking him, which if memory serves include Pine and Antihero. Oh, and DV as well. Still could be scum in a KK-Junpei scumteam, though.
10. Code_X NihilisticNinja <--Minor suspect due to Ninja's play.
11. Benmage <--Probably town via the rack wagon not being THAT scumdriven.
12. Pine <--Scum. I'm not sure if I'll be able to get enough on why before we go into night, but I'll try.
13. drmyshottyizsik <--Minor suspect. He's in the suspect pool with vijay and scooby, but I still need to check who was willing to wagon him.
14. HezLucky <--Probably town; just overall gut feeling.
15. drmyshotgun <--Town via claim, and via being on the rack wagon.
16. Nero Cain <--Town via interactions, and being on the rack wagon.
17. redFF <--Confirmed town.
18. Antihero Candy Corn Vampire <--Scum, especially if this game's single-faction. Words kinda escaping me, but I'll do what I can.
20. Lady Lambdadelta <--Town via the rack wagon.
21. Junpei <--Scum. See also, his push against me while voting rack and putting rack within lynch range, despite my request against doing so and his interest in me providing more content. (That last one's the biggy.)
22. Maxous <--Probably town due to the rack wagon, though he's of minor interest still.
23. vijay2vasandani <--Minor suspect, in the pool with scooby and shotty. Gut seems to recall liking something he's been saying recently, so maybe town.
24. GreyICE Praetyre <--Town due to the rack wagon.

Of course this is far from a complete list of reasons, but it gives a good start.

[mastin2]

Boiled down:

1. Psyche <--Minor suspect, but gut right now says town.
2. Kublai Khan <--Major, MAJOR suspect; his reaction reeks of knowing rack was town.
8. DeasVail <--Major suspect, especially with regards to consistently looking like he was on the edge of voting rack, but never following through.
9. Macros <--Only possible scum in a KK-Junpei scumteam.
10. Code_X NihilisticNinja <--Minor suspect due to Ninja's play.
12. Pine <--Scum. I'm not sure if I'll be able to get enough on why before we go into night, but I'll try.
13. drmyshottyizsik <--Minor suspect. He's in the suspect pool with vijay, but I still need to check who was willing to wagon him.
18. Antihero Candy Corn Vampire <--Scum, especially if this game's single-faction. Words kinda escaping me, but I'll do what I can.
21. Junpei <--Scum. See also, his push against me while voting rack and putting rack within lynch range, despite my request against doing so and his interest in me providing more content. (That last one's the biggy.)
23. vijay2vasandani <--Minor suspect, in the pool with scooby and shotty. Gut seems to recall liking something he's been saying recently, so maybe town.

Ten potential names. Khan, Junpei, Antihero, and Pine are figures of major suspicion. I'll see if I can eliminate a few of the minor suspects.

[mastin2]

If the game is multiscum, by the way, Pine and Khan look like they're probably not scum together.

[mastin2]

Same applies to Antihero; see KK's early read on CCV. In multiscum, it's a bad idea to start attacking a buddy immediately--even worse to then back off of 'em.

Single-scumteam, however, would still leave open KK-Antihero. Not sure on KK-Pine whether it'd be possible for both to be scum on a single large scumteam.

[mastin2]

Antihero-shotty is definitely fully possible. Oh, and thinking shotty's scum, mind you.

And Junpei-Khan actually looks possible as well.

Might be scumteams of Khan-Junpei-DesaVail and Antihero-Pine-Shotty, but not sure. Doesn't feel quite right.

Kinda sorta like one of Antihero and Pine are scum, but not the other if multiscum. In this case, Antihero's less likely scum.

If single-scum, they can still be scum together, though. Not entirely positive on Pine in this case, though, due to Khan.

[mastin2]

Er, I see no point in pulling this any longer.

It's not twilight, and rack gets scumpoints for not realising it.

Rack: Please vote for me now.

No, we lynched. I checked the votes; the math works out. It's 13 to lynch, we have 13 votes.

[mastin2]

I'm striking Ninja off the scumlist due to page 5.

Down to nine, technically, but I think that Pine, Khan, Antihero, DeasVail, Shotty, and Junpei contains most of our scumteam(s).

Still, though, while I feel REALLY strongly that ONE of Pine and Antihero/CCV is scum, I'm FAR from confident both would be. That said, Khan scumread's still strong, Junpei read is strong, and shotty read is decently strong (also, POE). The weakest read is DV.

[mastin2]

Dual masons kinda supports my two-scumteam idea. Especially since both kills
-Were on town,
-Were meant to look kinda town in nature,
And
-No kill went through on a stronger town player.

Drmy, do you have access to the QT Antihero and vijay had?
If so, can you try paraphrasing their conversation, since with both dead, it'd be kinda hard for either of them to do so for us?

Anyway...

VOTE: Kublai Khan.

[mastin2]

To confirm shotty's a universal backup, and to get an insight into the mind of two dead players who are both confirmed town--if they used their QT productively, they might have found something which shotty can give us insight into.

[mastin2]

Scum, Nero. Scum.

[mastin2]

Maxous, you know your stuff.

[mastin2]

I do agree with Mastin about there probably two scumteams barring shenanigans.

My reasoning for thinking that is somewhat flimsy, and I'm not

that

convincing. Please elaborate on why you think I'm actually correct in my theory. (...How often do you hear someone say that? )

[mastin2]

Let's see...how many of my scumreads are trying to go, "SHOTGUN IS NOT CONFIRMED TOWN; HE IS SCUM FAKING!"?

There's Pine*, Junpei, a former scumread in the form of CodeX, a kinda-scumread in the form of FakeGod...

*Speaking of Pine, voting for scooby when calling shotgun scum? Yeah...that's scumpine.

Spoiler: The Mason QT

Psyche: White-Knighting Scum
Kublai Khan: Null leaning Town
Scooby: Has a lot of nerves being part of shitstorm although it had nothing to do with him. Needs to seek replacement for himself. Does not play. Threat to Town although no sufficient evidence that he is scum.
FakeGod: Scum. Anti has no idea why people think he is Town. Says Jason was mighty scummy.
Firestarter: Lurking scum.
The Mini Librarian: Not as scummy as Psyche, but still White-Knights.
Deasvail: Another White-Knight, but Town looking.
Macros: Based on how scummy his wagon was, he's probably just Town.
Code_X: Tentative Town. Thanks to Ninja
Benmage: 100% Town.
Pine: Scum. With half-hearted, with convictions that doesnt look genuine.
drmyshottyizsik: Based on his Meta, he's being scummy.
Hezlucky: Townish
Nero Cain: Probably Town.
Lady Lambdadelta: Might be serial killer but otherwise seem town.
Junpei: Just like Scooby, but he's scum.
Maxous: Town. But might be surprise scum.
GreyICE: Can't read him, but most likely to be replaced.

3. Vijay says:
Pine is definite scum.
GreyICE looks scum.
Benmage, LLD, Kublai: looks like a scum-team right there.
Mastin is Town or perhaps 3rd party.
FakeGod is null(Thanks to Jason).
No read on Psyche.
RedFF is Town. But also a douche.

This is not something easily faked. If shotgun could fake this as scum, it'd be scummy-worthy. "Well, what if he had a budddy help him?" That'd require for said buddy to know both masons were dead and to help type out the messages. Which'd require either a perfectly accurate read on both of 'em and knowing that two kills would go through both on them, or daytalk. And even then, it sounds like exactly what they would say, paraphrased.

Speaking of which, among Antihero's reads--Psyche, maybe-FakeGod, maybe-Firestarter, TML, DV (The WK comment holds true), Pine, Shotty, Junpei, AND Maxous are all good reads of his (even the part about Maxous most likely being town but could be surprise-scum), in addition to quite solid townreads in the form of Scooby, maybe-Macross, maybe-CodeX, Benmage, Hez, Nero, and LLD. Heck, pretty much the only reads in there I disagree with are the Khan and DV townreads, which were "null, leaning town" at that!

2. Kublai Khan - Similar to Mastin.

And why, pray tell, is Khan similar to me yet NOT on your lynchlist?

8. DeasVail - I think he's town. He's been ganged up on a bit.

And who--other than me--has attacked DV? Do elaborate; I am quite curious how DV has been 'ganged up on'.

Your post was concise and agree with the points made and the conclusion based off those points.

Why did you agree with the points made? Which ones did you specifically agree with? Surely some of them you didn't agree with; could you point to those as well?

Mastin, I'd like to see a full KK case.

You really don't. I might type one in my QT and try to summarize it (I definitely will give a summary; the case is the might), but a full case would be 90% of his posts with 3-5 paragraphs

per sentence he has written

if I really went 100% on the case.

Psyche- This is mostly because of his vote on rack.

You mean the guy who flipped vanilla town? And...

what

, exactly, does Psyche's vote on a confirmed town mislynch do to make him worthy of this high status?

Junpei- I don't think him saying that drmy shouldn't be considered confirmed town is scummy.

Explain this as well.

[mastin2]

For the record. Khan, Pine, and Junpei are all VERY strong scumreads.

I realize there are only six scum, but unfortunately, I have a few more suspects than I'd like for who the last three are.
Shotty's my strongest scumread other than the basically-scumclaimed-three, which leaves two slots open.

Antihero's reads which I share for sure in my QT are {Psyche, TML}, with figures of interest in {FakeGod, Firestarter}.

Reads which I need to look again at are {Macross, CodeX}, both of which have done quite scummy things, but both of whom I had begun to think town, and yet both have continued to do things I'd expect to see from scum.

Put in list format:

TOWN:
shotgun
redFF
scooby
Benmage
Lady Lambdadelta
HezLucky
Nero Cain

GreyICE
Maxous (

on-guard

)

SCUM:
Kublai Khan Man
Pine
Junpei

shotty

MAJOR SCUM SUSPECTS: (Overlapped with Antihero)
Psyche
The Mini-Librarian

MINOR SCUM SUSPECTS:
4. FakeGod
5. Firestarter

DITTO SUSPECT:
8. DeasVail

NEED ANOTHER LOOK: (But tenatively town)
9. Macros
10. Code_X

(Gah, 11. I'm getting worse instead of better! >_<)

I'll go double-check stuff now. See what Antihero was talking about, and see what *I* have been talking about, confirm the reads here. 4 solid scumreads, 2 strong scumreads, 2 weak scumreads, 1 ditto-read. I feel like I'm CLOSE to figuring it out, but not *QUITE* there, yet. My scumteam(s) doesn't seem right. I'm missing something. (DANG IT, GREYICE, YOU'D PROBABLY SEE IT IF YOU WERE STILL PLAYING! :/)

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Walls

Mastin, where is that massive wall?

As stated in-thread, the wall was abandoned when the thought of multiscum cropped up. I theoretically could have rehauled the entire wall to account for it, but didn't. It'd require me to basically do double the workload. (Quadruple, if I were to follow Khan's original request. ) One where I list my reads if it's single-scum, the other where I list my reads with multiscum. The two would not be the same, as one scumteam or two scumteams changes the dynamics of interactions. And while I'm heavily leaning towards two (it'd explain a lot of people's playstyles not being quite what I'd expect, at the very least), I am far from sure of it. I'd love to, but quite frankly, it has the same problem as the Khan-case almost certainly would: it'd require a LOT of time for me to finish, time which I am quite short on this weekend (make that week, really--Wednesday in particular will be nasty, and by extent the days before and after Tuesday and Thursday will probably have me preoccupied), and next weekend even moreso. Biting off more than I can chew is a habit I need to cut back on.

MAJOR SCUM SUSPECTS: (Overlapped with Antihero)
Psyche
The Mini-Librarian
DITTO SUSPECT:
8. DeasVail

I think what's bothering me is that Psyche-DesaVail makes sense, but that by himself, TML looks far worse than either of 'em. And that for Psyche and DeasVail to both be scum (Psyche and TML, for that matter, too), it'd require FakeGod and Firestarter to both be town. I'll see if I can follow things through.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: You ask, you receive

Okay. I'm going to do the re-read, dividing it into each player.

Players

:

NOTE--you'll note much of the 'original reasoning' is what I already posted, way back when I did my series of walls. It all came from my QT, first, though.

The Mini-Librarian:

This is the first game he's done it (I checked), but I think it increases his chances of being town, as doing a look into his meta reveals that he immediately opens up as scum with strong play. (There's a reason that he was a legitimate townread for most of the game in Oversoul's game.)

I'll write him off as town for now.

Needless to say, this was quite weak.

[His play] looks aggressive (good indicator he's town), but the words within [do not look pro-town].

Basically, town-by-personality, scum-by-words.

Nihilistic Ninja:

Ninja's banter, on the other hand, is giving me the opposite initial impression--it looks like an attempt to make oneself purposefully look more town.

Jason/Fake God:

Macross:

HezLucky:

Candy Corn Vampire/Antihero:

Candy looks town for pointing out Ninja's attitude, so I'm inclined to beleive that Candy is, in fact, town. CCV could be scum (especially if Ninja is town), sure, but it looks more and more doubtful.

vijay2vasadani:

However, vijay and Ninja can't be scum together, so only one of them is actually scum, due to same banter. My scumread on Ninja is stronger, so that's my best bet.

Basically, town-because-Ninja's-not.

Kublai Khan:

Benmage:

Similar logic [to the redFF tell] kinda sorta gives me a microscopic townlean on Benmage. [Later] Benmage's interactions with Khan [have increased] my townread on him.

rack:

Lady Lambdadelta:

LLD's pre-game banter kinda sorta gives me a townread on her. At the very least, she's not scum with drmy, nor with Benmage.

drmyshottyizsik:

Given the interest in a shotty lynch, [he's probably not scum].

Praetyre/GreyICE:

drmyshotgun:

Firestarter:

Maxous:

Maxous also can't be scum with Ninja (due to their interactions), but looks quite off himself.

Nero Cain:

Khan's attack against Nero [also Ninja's interactions] does give credence to him being town.

scooby:

scooby's town beyond all doubt [and was a townread due to lack-of-confirm-gut-feeling before], in thanks to Khan.

Psyche:

DeasVail:

Other Stuff

:

(Note, many places probably would have gotten their own spoilers--original reasoning, maybe original-in-thread-reasoning, maybe-maybe-all outdated reads, and in the case of really long cases, maybe-current-reads. As it was, none of them got large enough because I abandonned the wall at the stage I said I did: after I had gone through my QT, but before I had gone through the thread. The below spoiler was the only thing which I deemed long enough; it's part of the wall, but as it was already a spoiler, it might as well have a separate spoiler section.)

Spoiler: How I Originally Began The Game

When I began the game, I arbitrarily divided the playerlist into four categories:

-Standard confirm. {Librarian, Macros, vijay2vasadani, shotty, Praetyre/GreyICE, Firestarter, rack.}
-Semi-standard confirm. {NihilisticNinja, jason, HezLucky, Maxous, Junpei, LLD, drmy.}
-Non-standard confirm. {mastin2, redFF, Candy Corn Vampire, Khan, Benmage, Pine, Nero.}
-Unconfirmed. {moaner, sorgster, scooby}

(Note--DV is sorgster, Psyche is moaner. scooby moves to standard, Psyche to semi-standard, and DV to semi-standard.)

Making the end list:

-Standard confirm. {Librarian, Macros, vijay2vasadani, shotty, Praetyre/GreyICE, Firestarter, rack, scooby.}
-Semi-standard confirm. {NihilisticNinja, jason, HezLucky, Maxous, Junpei, LLD, drmy, Psyche, DeasVail.}
-Non-standard confirm. {mastin2, redFF, Candy Corn Vampire, Khan, Benmage, Pine, Nero.}

I included a reason each one of these was placed in the category they were. Now originally, I broke things down to end like this:

TOWN(ish):

{Librarian, shotty, vijay}
{Junpei, Maxous, LLD}
{redFF, Pine, Nero, CCV}

{moaner, sorgster, scooby}

SCUM(ish):
{?}
{Ninja, drmy}
{Khan}

NULL:
{Macross, Praetyr, Firestarter, rack}
{jason, HezLucky}
{Benmage (townlean)}

Not quite the reads you saw from me originally, but dang-close to what they were. (This was the second list I made, the first one being less complete.)

See individual player sections for why each read ended up the way it did. All of this pretty much before the game began.

At the time I made the above list, I posted in the conclusions:

My best guess at this point would be Ninja-Khan-drmy-Firestarter-rack-*onemore*.

Edited 04-19-2012 03:50 PM
And at that time, I began typing my original wall.

[mastin2]

No, but he replaced sorgster's slot. (Pet peeve: I really,

really

hate it when mods do not acknowledge a slot once was held by another person--even if said person never confirmed and never was a part of the game; they were sent a PM, and ESPECIALLY in an open-confirm-game such as this, that means that content can form on said slots.)

And yeah that Deas Psyche read is terrible.

Please clarify whose Deas/Psyche reads are terrible, and then explain why.

[mastin2]

Dang it, I think I just got into confirmation bias mode. Since...

Has mastin even explained his Deas/Psyche read? Or just indicated that he has one where

they are connected scum?

...Reads to me as a scumslip. >_<

[mastin2]

Mastin, what do you think of my LLD case? Does it change anything or is she still a town read for you?

It has maybe one or two points which might be valid, but otherwise seems like it doesn't really hold. It does look like it comes from a town perspective, solidifying my already-rather-strong townread on you, though.

Hey Mastin? When have you had a major scumread on me and actually been right?

When said read was not my original read. I read you as town originally, after all.

Further, when have you been right about me being scum, and I let you live?

Multiple factors come into this. Multiscum, doc protects, suspecting I might be scum myself and not wanting a crosskill, other buddies overriding, trying to WIFOM me back into my original read on you...there are probably other reasons I can think of to explain it, but those seem to be all fairly probable reasons your scumteam would be hesitant to kill me.

[mastin2]

Also, I can think of a game which meets both criteria: Tricycle Mafia. I had a scumread on Pine which went back and forth, yet despite pushing Pine as scum more often than I was pushing him as town, and despite pushing for the lynch of half his scumteam, I was not nightkilled.

[mastin2]

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

[mastin2]

And hence where the experience comes in. I've never in my time seen two four-man scumteams.

No, seriously.

I've seen a couple of three-four multiscum games (incredibly rare--there are only two I've seen, Emerald City and Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks; uneven scumteams are INCREDIBLY hard to balance),

but never two teams of four

*. In seventy games. With something like 2/5ths of them being Large.

Besides, 8/24 = 1/3rd, the highest boundary possible. Math and experience say that four scum on a team is impossible.

Heck, even in a 26-player multiscum game, I'd expect three.

*

*Nevermind, thought of one due to the second-sentence I marked, meaning I HAVE seen it before...once. With 26 players, Mirror Mafia (which gave away its setup via the title) had two teams of four, but it was a 26-player game. Not 24.

[mastin2]

tl;dr: Theoretically, it'd be possible to have two 4-man scumteams, but my experience tells me differently. Like I said. I know my numbers. Two scumteams of 3 in a game of this size is most likely. (Though as I've said, I'm not sold on it. It makes sense, and it fits with everything I know, but I'm far from positive. We really won't know for sure 'til we have a scumflip.)

[mastin2]

42% scum?

Yeah, bad setup.

One can go through the NY games, by the way, and see proof of what I'm saying.

Mirror Mafia had two teams of 4, sure.
Lovers Mafia had two teams of 4, but that was necessary by the very nature of the game.

Every other multiscum game here, from Trumpet's to Rolling in the Deep to Mafia on Werewolf Island to Outdoorsmen Mafia 2...

...Has had two teams of three.

[mastin2]

Code X is scummy too, posting a lot but not saying a lot. Reading through his walls, it is a lot of commentary...not much meat to it.

Yeah, this was one of the reasons I considered rekindling my Ninja scumread, but the second large wall was better--and more than that, it looked like it was legitimate, and that CodeX was honestly believing everything he was saying. Granted, in multiscum that's not nearly as strong of a towntell, but it's enough for me to go with Antihero (plus myself) and write him off as town.

Also for the record, my suspicion on FakeGod has lessened. And I'll need to take another look at Firestarter, but I'll probably read him the same way I do CodeX--their posting style is nearly identical, with lots of IioA, but with some workable content to form reads out of.

Also also, Psyche and DV's recent posting kinda leads me to believe one of--but not both--them are scum. Don't know which would be which, though.

Also*3, TML's scum.

[mastin2]

Holy--

How the heck did I ever have a scumread on Firestarter? Again, while there is tons of IioA, even the IioA comes across as being commented on by someone forming an opinion and basically summarizing things as they see it. Furthermore, the reads posted do have a few gems in them and give a couple of unique insights which I had entirely overlooked before. He's gotta be town.

[mastin2]

Psyche:

Opinion on Macros? I see absolutely nothing on him in your ISO.

Macross:

Can you give me the six players you are most suspicious of, and the six players you are least suspicious of? Rather than two or three of each? You've only mentioned a few players in this game so far; you've ignored many more.

[mastin2]

Macross: Can you give me the six players you are most suspicious of, and the six players you are least suspicious of? Rather than two or three of each? You've only mentioned a few players in this game so far; you've ignored many more.

Extend this to

FakeGod

as well, who has done not much better.

And please include what you think of Macros if he's in neither category.

[mastin2]

Psyche: Opinion on Macros? I see absolutely nothing on him in your ISO.

And now

Junpei

needs to answer this as well, since he has the exact same thing.

[mastin2]

Junpei, I have.

Multiple times.

In fact, I've commented on Macros more than any other player.

YOU have not.
YOU have ZERO mention of Macros in your ISO.

Now answer. What. Do. You. Think. Of. Macros.

[mastin2]

Screw it.

Unvote, VOTE: Junpei.

He's scum, specifically avoiding commentary on Macros, when there is no reason to withhold that read as town, ESPECIALLY when the player he wants to give a read is the person who has more content on Macros than all other players pretty much combined. (27+ mentions in my ISO, last I checked.) It's dodgy as hell. I'm not yielding; Junpei WILL answer FIRST.

[mastin2]

CodeX:

That leaves {shotty, Hez, Macross, redFF, scooby} as containing one scum.

redFF is my strongest townread, scooby's a townread, Hez is a townread, and shotty's a scumread. Macros you'll have to wait for Junpei to answer first. Since I? I've got a QT. I've been typing up my opinion on Macross in multiple posts over the last 15 minutes. He? He's given nothing.

[mastin2]

And Junpei continues to not answer, despite multiple requests to do so.
And brings up a post which actually supports me, 'cause guess where I gave Macros another look?
Yeah, in my QT.

I've done my work.
I've got half a dozen posts devoted to him in my QT.
I've worked out my read, and can prove it by showing the reasoning and my conclusion.

Junpei has..."Well, I want Mastin to answer first."

...Yeah...

[mastin2]

Speaking of Macros,

Kublai Khan

, I'd like an updated read on him from YOU as well.

[mastin2]

Therefore, Junpei is scum?

This is not the only reason that he is scum, but yes, this'd be reason enough for him to be scum.

[mastin2]

Kublai, Mastins' comments on Macros inthread are pretty poor as of late; I think he is not scumhunting as I've already said.

You won't goad me into posting my read on him first, Junpei. You. get. nothing. more. Not even a hint at my current read until you post first. I WILL force this through.

There is ZERO reason to hold back a read on a player.

ESPECIALLY when the person asking it of you says they already have a read, and no amount of content from you can change or alter said read. What, you think I'd scrap it all and sheep you? Scrap it all and go against you? That I BS'd the whole thing and will automatically go against/with you?

You know me better than that, Junpei.

Post. The. Read. Or.

Die

. Those are your two options. There is NO alternative.

[mastin2]

Mastin, I do know you: You are the guy whose words hold little weight in this game and whose actions are mostly trivial.

And this is where you are wrong, Junpei. My words hold incredible weight, and none of my actions are ever trivial--you need only look at the fact that you have a wagon forming on you to see proof of this. That wagon can (and probably will) double in size, because when it comes right down to it, you are posting exactly as you would as scum. You are not looking at this game with a town mindset, you've in fact scumslipped multiple times by revealing your scum-motivated stance, your posts are carefully fabricated to try and look town, but the artificial nature of them gives away that you're not playing as town. Your interactions with others have given you away.

And let's deal in more "concrete" terms. What I said above is somewhat abstract and general. To put it simply, I can use your own treasured weapon against you--logic. Rather, your extreme lack thereof. You are allegedly a logical player who is supposed to think things through analytically and form conclusions based off of those facts: but instead, you ignore large pieces of evidence, overlook critical facts, and are purposefully trying not to reach a strong conclusion on anyone.

After I eat lunch, I might show examples of this in your scum-driven ISO. But needless to say, I am NOT the kind of player you think I am.

[mastin2]

Whoops. It's an hour later than I thought it was.

Lunch, try dinner.

I have to leave, and won't be back 'til much later tonight.

[mastin2]

Fair enough. He's been prod dodging and making empty promises for far too long. The only town-ish thing that he's done that put him a (small) notch above the scum line is the fact that he had the opportunity to jump on the rack wagon, but didn't.

That's reasoning, but it's not a *read*, Khan. Give me something concrete, here.

[mastin2]

By the way, Junpei stuff'll have to wait. I'm exhausted, have stuff to do elsewhere before I go to bed.

I'll see if I can do it tomorrow. But I'm going to push this until I get what I want--Junpei WILL answer me. And not in the dodgy way Khan just did. He'll give a blunt answer to the blunt question. All I need is a simple one to three words (though preferably with more of course), to answer the rather simple question.

[mastin2]

Know what?

I think I've waited long enough.

The Scumteams are {

Kublai Khan, Junpei, Macross

} and {

Pine, shotty, The Mini-Librarian

}.

My Starting Point:

I started from this--a copy-paste from in-thread into my QT:

Spoiler: You Saw This

SCUM:
Kublai Khan Man
Pine
Junpei

shotty
The Mini-Librarian

SCUM SUSPECT: (Overlapped with Antihero)
Psyche

MINOR SCUM SUSPECTS:
4. FakeGod
8. DeasVail

NEED ANOTHER LOOK: (But tenatively town)
9. Macros

And began to work from there via process of elimination.

Follow-Through:

I then did an iso of Macros. It's important to note a fact about players as old as Macros--from what I can gather, Macros is a relic of the olden days of mafiascum, who unlike some other old scummers such as Internet Stranger has not continued playing often enough to keep up with site meta.

This is what led me to be a little bit suspicious of his lack of content on most players--by focusing on only a few players at once, he'd further a scum agenda. Furthermore, he never changed his vote, despite new content having appeared, also preventing much insight from being gained.

In addition to that, his only mention of Khan was pushing him away, but not really taking a firm stance: he was sheeping others (in particular, LLD comesd to mind) with his stance of "Khan looks like there's something off about him, but still looks good".

A weak distance, which was dropped soon after.

All of this is by-the-book classic scum play, which fits with Macros's old age.

Investigating Antihero's Comment

Macros(3) - Pine, rack, DeasVail

Definitely rules out Macros from a Pine/DV scumteam. THIS is why Macross could only be scum with Khan.

Basically, Macross could be scum with Khan, Junpei, shotty, TML, FakeGod, and Psyche, but not Pine or DesaVail.

I had made a similar observation to Antihero, so I of course needed further investigation. This is why I asked the questions I did in-thread: I was prodding around to see who Macros could be scum with.

I then gathered as many opinions as I could get. Simultaneously, I began making a list of scumteams from what I had already deduced. I then threw in wagon analysis to further narrow things down.

rack (13)-

Benmage

,

The Mini-Librarian

, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

,

Lady Lambdadelta, drmyshotgun

, Maxous,

GreyICE, Nero Cain

, FakeGod,

Junpei, Pine

,

Antihero

So I've got four scum on here--I don't think there's more than that. This is evidence by itself that Maxous and FakeGod are town. Well-spread-out, too. This'd narrow it down to {Psyche, DV, Macross} for the final scum.

And from this, I did a final compilation, with the five scumspects I had for sure, and the three individuals vying for the last spot. The list?

Khan-Junpei-Macros | Pine-shotty-TML
Khan-Junpei-Psyche | Pine-shotty-TML
Khan-Junpei-DV | Pine-shotty-TML

Khan-Junpei-Shotty | Pine-TML-Psyche
Khan-Junpei-Shotty | Pine-TML-DV

Khan-Junpei-TML | Pine-shotty-Psyche
Khan-Junpei-TML | Pine-shotty-DV

The thing which tipped me off to Khan-Junpei-Macros was, of course, Junpei's stubborn refusal to give a read. And in that refusal, he gave himself away, as it let me in on the final piece of the puzzle. In truth, asking him to answer for a read was little more than a formality Edited 04-29-2012 03:07 PM
to confirm what I already knew--Macros was his scumbuddy, alongside with Khan.

Wrapup:

-"Why'd you continue the line of thought with Junpei if you had already made up your mind?" Well, multiple reasons.
*I am far from infalliable. I could have been wrong, and had Junpei just been stubborn town, then when he posted his read, it might have changed my opinion.
*In addition to that, it'd help me when making a case against Junpei, as the more he posted his refusal to read, the further it'd help prove he was scum.
*The more he continued to refuse giving the read, the stronger my read became. While I was initially skeptical (and in fact concluded that--because there was only ONE possible combination where Macros was scum--that Macros was probably town), every time Junpei refused only strengthened the read.

-"Was the whole Junpei case a bluff, then?" Heck no. I'm not unvoting him, now, am I? Yeah, that means the case is very much real.

-"What does that mean of Psyche and DV?" Well, believe it or not, they're town, because of my scumteams above.

-"Couldn't you be wrong about one of your other scumreads?" Well, yes, I could--and in fact, I haven't at all investigated the likelihood of a Pine-shotty-TML scumteam; their scumteam is the weak link in my reads, since I was focusing on Khan, Junpei, and Macros to prove or disprove that team.

-"That's nice and all, but can we have reasoning on the other five?" At this very moment, no, but I'll do what I can. As I said, I'll make the Junpei case in the way I stated before, and probably will summarize a case against Khan as well (they will be similar in nature). Pine, shotty, and TML are lower priorities, since I haven't actually done my research on 'em yet and you never make a case you do not believe fully in.

-"Why'd you spring the case now, rather than waiting longer?" I figured that I basically had already hinted too strongly at where I was heading. Anyone who knows my style at all could figure out that I was heading this way with my inquiries towards Junpei and Khan about Macros. Heck, even people who DON'T know me probably could have guessed as much; I'm not exactly good at being subtle. There really wasn't much point in waiting when they might have already figured out what I was going to do--and even if they didn't, I don't think I'd be able to get much more out of Junpei than what I already got.

Any other questions?

[mastin2]

Clarification:

-"Is that all you have against Macros?" Mostly, but not entirely; I can think of a few other points, but I think I conveyed the important reasons.

-"Where's the Junpei case?" It hasn't be typed, yet. I've been working elsewhere, so haven't had the time to begin--yet alone, finish--it, yet. I'd love to post it as an immediate followthrough, but I haven't typed a single word on it. Sorry.

-"Why are Pine, shotty, and TML not as well-researched as your other scumteam?" I was focusing on nailing a single scumteam down, so that I could work from there. (Actually, my focus was originally on getting six names, and working from those six to see which team made the most sense, but I realized that method wasn't going to work as well.) I nailed Khan-Junpei-Macros, which led to the above post, so I posted that.

-"And what are you going to do to further that second scumteam?" After I've done my research, I'll give an update on the Pine-shotty-TML scumteam I've formed, to see if it still holds true. It was formed by process of elimination, after all, not by actual connections between them. If it changes, I'll give the updated second scumteam along with the reasons why. If it remains the same, I'll form a case beyond process of elimination to explain why I think they're still the second scumteam.

-"Why so much scumhunting based off of interactions when we don't have a scumflip?" This point needs to be addressed in multiple pieces. Most important to least important...
*The only read in there based off of interactions is actually Macros. The rest were all people I found individually scummy, from Khan to Junpei to Pine to shotty to TML. So really, the scumteams I've formed aren't made up of ENOUGH interactions.
*Sometimes, we don't get the luxury of a scumflip. You can help out by voting Junpei if you want one, though.
*Interactions are just the main way I scumhunt. Khan himself noted that it's my strongsuit when it comes to scumhunting. Regardless of whether you think it works or not, or whether you think it's a wise idea, it's the way that I tend to work best, and it often works for me.

-"Can you put the scumreads in order from strongest to weakest?"

I already did, actually, in said post, basically:

SCUM:
Kublai Khan Man
Pine
Junpei

shotty
The Mini-Librarian
[Macros]

With one minor adjustment; my Junpei scumread is now stronger than my Pine scumread.

Yes, Khan remains my strongest scumread, but I don't have any hopes of getting Khan lynched today. The only way I'll be getting Khan lynched is by pointing out his play in the long-run, and showing how it consistently furthers a scum agenda. In particular, how he's connected to Junpei and Macros. A Junpei scumflip, for instance, would be incredibly condemning to Khan.

[mastin2]

If we lynch Jun today and you're wrong will you help me lynch TML tomorrow?

Regardless of whether I'm right or wrong on Junpei, I'd most likely be willing to help you lynch TML. I can't give a guarantee (see also: me needing to research the Pine-shotty-TML scumteam; combine that with the fact that I'd need to see where I went wrong if Junpei somehow DID flip town), but it is a likelihood.

[mastin2]

At first, it was trusting in Antihero's meta of shotty, that this was shotty-scum, rather than shotty-town. Then I went and looked at shotty's contribution in iso (was looking at Macros interactions at the time). It didn't actually look like the play of a VI at all, to me. It looked like the play of someone furthering a scum agenda. He jumped onto the easy Nero bandwagon, not using original reasoning, basically attacking an easy target. His reasoning also didn't sound like he really believed it. Note.

So what I gather form all this is that, either
A) you know something that the rest of us don't, and you are town, why?:
or,
B) You are mafia and know that I am town, but don't want to seem over eager to lynch someone, why?:

Personally I think it's B

The bolded is the important part. Note his non-commital stance; he's saying he thinks it's B, but he's not devoting himself to it being true for sure.

This

I'm just not seeing rack as all to scummy atm.
Also with psych, I think he may just be bad, or not know how to play, but wants to act like he can. His attitude is coming off more arrogant than it is scummy.

...Looks like an attempt to get cheap towncred as well, by defending two people shotty knows to be town.

And here

What was the point of this Nero?
It's never pro-town to rebut with that statement.
Why do you want me to shut up? Because I suspect you?
How about we give reasons not blanket statements.

He doesn't look like he really believes Nero to be scum at all with the way he's addressing him.

There's not much in shotty's iso, but it's enough to have gotten a scumread on him. Like I said, I see no VI; I see someone who looks legitimately scummy.

[mastin2]

If Khan is your strongest scum read, why have you been voting Pine and Junpei instead?

I haven't voted Pine since yesterday; before I moved my vote to Junpei, my vote was on Khan. As to why I'm not pursuing a Khan lynch right now...

Yes, Khan remains my strongest scumread, but I don't have any hopes of getting Khan lynched today. The only way I'll be getting Khan lynched is by pointing out his play in the long-run, and showing how it consistently furthers a scum agenda. In particular, how he's connected to Junpei and Macros. A Junpei scumflip, for instance, would be incredibly condemning to Khan.

That's not to say I won't be giving reasoning as to why Khan's scum and in fact my strongest scumread (I fully intend to). It's just that I don't think I could make ANY case which is convincing enough to lynch Kublai Khan Man until after we have a scumflip to prove what I'm saying has merit.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Hez

Yes because you can CLEARLY pick out every member of every scumteam.

I'd be the first to admit that my second scumteam isn't solid. (Ohright, I already did.) But I do have one, yes. And none of the members in said scumteam have been really playing poorly. They just haven't been playing well enough to have escaped.

ALL of them are playing SO POORLY.

Macros has no wagon on him, and his wagon peaked at an almighty 3; that's totally bad play on his part, right? Khan's had a few people with bad gut reads, but is almost universally a townread; that's totally bad play on his part, right? Their individual play isn't bad. (Junpei notwithstanding. *points to wagon having formed on him without my help*.) It's their interactions which have given them away, as I will explain soon enough.

All the people mentioned have been suspected at some point.

And a quick look at my Iso will reveal that almost all of them have been suspects of mine, many before others had opinions on 'em.

You claim you are unfamiliar with the site meta of old players and then you go on to hold it against Macros.

That's not what I said at all*. I said that from what I can tell, Macros hasn't kept up with current site meta (he didn't know what a hydra was, for instance), and that therefore, his style of play would be more reminiscent of an older style--and in said older style, he displays several classic scumtells. Pretty much all scum players nowadays know not to do the things I listed in my case as scum, because they're seen as scummy and will come to bite them. Macros likely didn't know any better, and therefore, would be more suspicious than any other player pulling said moves, because (to him) they were smart scum moves in the day.

I'll fully admit, I wasn't around to see the good classic days--but I've heard them described. I've read some games from back then as well. In them, you can see things which used to be revolutionary plays that were incredibly smart (such as the concept of bussing, which used to be nonexistent on the site) that are now standard and/or dead tells because everyone knows about/does them so they're no longer as good as they were.

*This still applies to the "I can't read vets" comment I have made multiple times, which is different than "not being familiar with old meta"; the two are NOT the same. By Vets, I mean people like Yosarian2, CrashTextDummie, MrBuddyLee, Glork, and other people like that--people who have actively kept up with the current site meta (more or less) and have adapted, fitting in and playing so well that I can't really read them until much later in the game by following Yosarian2's advice on how to read people like him. These people are typically those with joindates of 2005-2007, give or take a year. (Total range, 2004-2008, pretty much.) A player like Macros who is much older yet hasn't been keeping up with the site is actually far easier to read--sure, technically he's more of a "vet" than even Yosarian2, but he's not a true veteran.

Mastin - can you point me in direction of a couple of recently completed games where you have been town and scum.

My most recently finished scum game is Oversoul's Mini Normal. But that's single-faction. Before that, I *think* it was NY144, eaten by tigers, and I have no clue what was before THAT. My most recently finished (as in, game over) multiscum game would be Trumpet's, though my part in that was eaten by tigers. Before that, it was way back in Mafia on Werewolf Island, which was a year ago, so I don't really have any reliable multiscum scum meta to give you. (Through no fault of my own, mind you. ) Heck if I know what my most recent town game is. Check New York games. I've been in pretty much every single one. If you want a town multiscum game, you'd have to find Alduskkel's Fire & Ice Open; that's the only game I was alive long enough in. (Rolling in the Deep really doesn't, given my lifespan in there. )

I have over 70 games; I don't keep good track of 'em.

Everyone: Does Mastin do this kind of thing as scum?

This exact thing, I don't think so. Things similar enough that most people can't tell the difference? Yeah, so the answer might as well be "yes".

Is he really saying that KK and and Junpei are scum for interaction with Macros but has those two as higher suspects than Macros?

No. Khan is my strongest scumread for reasons entirely unrelated to any other player--just him. His ties to Junpei and Macros further solidify him as scum.

Junpei is my second-strongest scumread for reasons entirely unrelated to any other player; he's scum for separate reasons. His ties to Khan and in particular Macros were enough to further solidify him as scum.

Macros is my weakest scumread because my case against him is really weak and relies a good 80-90% ON his interactions with Khan and Junpei and theirs with him. Remove the interactions, and you remove all but 10-20% of the case against him, hence why he's at the bottom of my scumlist.

Speaking of which, after I post this, I'm going to show you the interactions from the other two perspectives--Junpei's and Khan's.

[mastin2]

Let's start with Junpei. You already know half of the equation. Look at his Macros read--rather the lack thereof. Even after I've given him exactly what he asked for (a solid, up-to-date read on Macros), he STILL has not shared his own opinion of Macros.

Spoiler: In-depth Junpei-Macros

It started in 1215, where I made the initial request and he asked me to make my read known first.

This was bad, because he wanted to know what others thought of Macros FIRST, as he wanted to analyze where he needed to stand in regards to Macros. Had he been pro-town, he would have come out and immediately given the read. You'll see more on this in my case against Junpei, but basically, when boiled down, Junpei-as-town would be aware of my meta, and that even as scum I use pseudotown quicktopics where I dump notes of my "reads" and my reasoning as to why--because heck, even most newbie-scum know they have to create reasoning for finding a player "suspicious", so Junpei asking me for my reasoning and accusing me of having none is itself BS.

Junpei-as-scum needs to know where I stand, wanting me to give an indepth account of Macros. I call him out on his lack of Macros interaction in 1221 and say that I've given plenty. In response to this, rather than giving a read on Macros (he didn't even need reasoning; he just needed a read), he asks for in-depth reasoning for Macros. So instead of his reason being, "I want you to give me your read first", when I point out I already have, he says, "I want you to give me MORE reasoning before I give you a read." Again, this is something there is zero pro-town motivation for. I'd given my read, albeit not with reasoning, and from him as town, I would expect nothing more than a read until I had given my reasoning. But he didn't post a read--again, this is because he needed to know what evidence there was for-or-against Macros BEFORE he took a stance, because Macros is his scumbuddy and he needs to tread carefully with regards to whether or not to bus.

By now, I knew, and called him out on his dodging/deflecting in 1225, which basically said the same thing about Junpei--he had avoided the question, a quite simple question, in favor of trying to escape. And after I call him out on it in that post, he AGAIN tries to deflect here, where he tries to say that my analysis has not been in-depth by pointing out my most recent read. And then I say that I have done my work in my QT, which Junpei should KNOW that I use every game. And that I wouldn't alter or change my read in said QT in any way. (I didn't. I hadn't typed up my post on Macross which was post 60 in my QT, but post 60 was based off of 53-58 which were devoted to Macros almost exclusively--59 was where I said, "Screw Macros being town; Junpei's refusal to give a read on him makes him scum", and I had already made that post by this point in time.)

And yet despite this promise (which I upheld) that could be VERY easily proven, Junpei STILL refused here, insisting that I wasn't scumhunting. (This is of course doubly-wrong. Even as scum, I know how to fake scumhunting and in fact do so competently. The doubly-so comes from the part where I think this game is multiscum, so even as scum I would have reason to legitimately scumhunt the other team. In other words, no matter what, I wouldn't not be scumhunting.) When all I had asked for was a simple read, he continued to think of excuses not to answer and (once more, I remind you) has YET to.

I stop playing nice and demand one final time for Junpei to answer, yet he brushes my comment off, tries to deflect the conversation away from HIM giving a Macros read in 1236, and by this point, it's abundantly clear he has no intention to ever give a Macros read.

Which he hasn't.

There couldn't be much of a clearer picture linking him to Macros.

Next post, the Khan half from Junpei.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Junpei's Khan Interactions

Kublai (may I call you that?) I just want Mastin to be more focused so that he's more effective if town and doesn't spam the thread like some people already have.

You'll be seeing more on this on the Khan-interaction section (addressing Junpei specifically), as well as the Junpei case proper (about how I more or less did exactly what he asked me to and kept my thoughts focused and relatively organized and how it made me more effective as town: by nailing him), since interactions are basically the warmup. But for starters, this is the only thing he has to say on the game since his last post on me (which this is a follow-through on), which again looks out of place, as if responding to Khan should be a larger priority than anything else.

Where Khan disappears for nearly a quarter of Junpei's iso.

And coincidentally enough, he reemerges...with Junpei answering (once more) Khan's inquiries towards him here. (You'll of course be seeing a lot more on this during the Khan section of interactions. There's a dang good reason I had Junpei-Khan as scum even during day one.)

The next Khan interaction is the closest Junpei gives to giving an opinion on Khan, where he defends Khan from Psyche (we have a word for that. *insertchainsawgifhere* ) with this:

You say Khan demonstrated awareness of post X at instance Y, and that at Y did not express concern. First, I can't seem to find this.
Khan seems to be following a very simple formula; that is an overview read followed by a bullet point case. The case is supported by observations that Khan makes as he reads and impressions he receives, requiring him to go back and look for posts he didn't initially include.
However, more to your point, Khan was present during the posts he cites as damning. What I ask you is that do you assert that any read based on things found on a reread which were not found and noted at instance Y is invalid? That is, do you assert that scumhunting town should notice all relevant posts and tells the first time through?

The next mention of Khan is much later (again, pretty much not commenting on Khan at all), and is of course in relationship to me:

I no longer mind walls; lets see your KK case, I will accept a massive wall.

...Where he asks me to give a case on Khan.

And the next Khan comment?

Kublai, Mastins' comments on Macro inthread are pretty poor as of late; I think he is not scumhunting as I've already said.

...Once more, in response to an inquiry by Khan. (But more on that, once again, when I do the Khan section.)

The closest we get to a further read is this,

I would take myself, Kublai Khan, and Librarian before I pick you.

Which was meant as a comment on amount of skill more than an actual read.

All in all, Junpei's pretty much ignoring Khan unless Khan directs an inquiry his way. Which is exactly how I would expect him to interact with his scumbuddy.

Now to Khan's interactions. (After which'll come the fun stuff, a full Junpei case using his own prized weapon against him. Did I mention that his ISO's pretty much full of contradictions? Yeah, you can take a look to see for yourself how this prized user of logic has so switched his stances so many times, but more on that later.)

[mastin2]

Since it's so short, I might as well do the Khan-Macros part first. It starts in post 603, where Khan agrees with Macros's comment. This friendly(ish) stance on Macros continues

Have no idea why [rack]'s voting Macros

...Where he defends Macros indirectly by attacking rack.

9. Macros
- Tunneling on a suspect that has a low lynch-chance.
- Signs of looking busy, nullish on him atm

And yet he keeps Macros at null, a good place to keep a scumbuddy (null, but overall not bad), especially when the other is (not clearly so, but implied to be) null with a bad lean. (More on Junpei later, of course.)

And then his next relevant mention of Macros is today.

He's been prod dodging and making empty promises for far too long. The only town-ish thing that he's done that put him a (small) notch above the scum line is the fact that he had the opportunity to jump on the rack wagon, but didn't.

While he did imply his opinion, he didn't explicitly define it clearly (which I called him out on). But here's the interesting thing--the reason he's above scum is that he wasn't on the rack wagon...yet that's the exact reason he wasn't town before, because Khan said "tunneling on a suspect with a low lynch chance" (implying he should go after someone with a higher lynch chance, like rack, in order to be productive) earlier.

It wasn't much, but it was enough to confirm things. The main tie Khan has to Macros is Khan's tie to Junpei, who has the tie to Macros I already gave. And that's my next part...

[mastin2]

Mastin: Has your wagon influenced your recent posting?

Heck no. I came home with the thought in mind that I was going to explain the interactions between Junpei, Khan, and Macros. Heck, I had it in mind as I was leaving my house, in fact, and have been thinking about it throughout the day. I knew what I was going to be posting the minute I got home, and got to work on it as soon as I could. (I haven't even had supper, yet, because I came straight to this game.)

[mastin2]

Khan's Junpei iso is full of goldmines--there aren't many mentions of him, but every single one of them is important.

@Junpei - Why encourage mastin2 to be less forthcoming with his thoughts?

Compare this one to all the other people he addresses in the post. Notice something different? The others look like they're scumhunting (or at least faking it). He asks good questions to Nero, rack, and CCV. (Though more on this later, if I decide to make a Khan case.) The question asked to Junpei doesn't fit the pattern--instead, it seems to come off as more of a warning. "Dude, don't mess with Mastin. It's a BAD idea. Trust me on that, okay?" This is further supported by the fact that Khan doesn't follow it through. He follows through with rack. He follows through with CCV. He follows through on Nero. But he never follows through on Junpei, with Junpei vanishing until Khan's second reads post.

- "passion" arguments are really bad.
- It's a shame that mastin2's posting style is massively distracting him from the rest of the game.
- I'd seriously like more participation from Junpei (if I may call him that)

...Where he doesn't even give a read on Junpei at all. It kinda implies a scumlean due to the "passion arguments are really bad" part, but otherwise comes across as trying to not take a firm stance on him. And note the coaching: "Junpei, come in here with more content." is the obvious one, but once again, there's a warning to Junpei--"Junpei...stop tempting fate with Mastin! Even *I* am not that stupid!"

And then he's gone again. Until

@Junpei - He asked for an example, I provided him with one, so now he's saying that my provided example is evidence of me scrambling to provide *NEW INFORMATION*.

Where he answers about Psyche for Junpei. Where he disappears again until here, where Khan only gives weak Junpei suspicion, and in fact,

Nero Cain or Pine are swinging today. (scooby and/or Junpei are outside chances depending on their contributions today)

...Junpei is last on his list.

And then, his next comment on Junpei?

WTF Junpei?

mastin2 has commented on Macros already. Why the delay on your part?

This to me looks like it's meant to do multiple things. It looks like Khan is SCREAMING at Junpei, "JUST DO WHAT MASTIN ASKS YOU TO DO, JUNPEI, BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!", and simultaneously assessing whether Junpei is a lost cause and whether he'll need to bus him or not, giving a last-ditch-effort coaching attempt to Junpei.

As you can see, it's quite solid. Now for the fun stuff. It'll come after I eat, though.

[mastin2]

Also I value reasons, not reads; thanks.

Then there would be zero harm in giving away the reads, now, would there, if they hold no value to you, eh?

Yeah. Scumclaim.

[mastin2]

This is a small part of my Junpei case, but since QTs have an annoying four-link limit in place (even for links to other QTs! >_<), I don't exactly have much choice other than to post it first. All of these are public and can be found in the scum/dead QTs or if I lived until the game's finish, in my ISO of the games.

Tricycle QT, town.
Powerrox QT, town.
Desert QT (game with Khan Man), town.
1180 QT, town.
Reaper QT, town.
LIPD QT, town.
Brightest Day QT, town.
Fire and Ice QT, town. (Best multiscum performance from me.)
Flash Mafia QT, first

scum

pseudotown-QT. By extent, it was the first game where I kept a day-scum QT, abandoned once I became the last surviving scum.
Sexy Sedilla QT, town.
Neruzian QT, town.
RPG QT, town.
Underground QT, town.
Rolling QT, town.
OxyMoron QT, town.
Gulf QT,

scum

; my second and only day-QT is here.
Stargate QT, town.
Independent QT, town.
Mob Justice,

scum

. (We had daytalk.)
It Got Worse, never officially declared over to my knowledge, so no QT link and no alignment from me; I'd have to confirm the game really ended.
RPG 2 QT,

scum

.
Flash 4 QT, town.
Little Town QT,

scum

. (Daytalk. Again.)

You'll see why this is part of the Junpei case after I actually finish writing the Junpei case.

[mastin2]

Relevent game links as well--
Tricycle.
Powerrox.
Desert. (Highly recommended reading.)
1180.
Reaper.
LIPD.
Brightest Day.
Fire and Ice. (Highly Recommended Reading.)
Flash Mafia 3.
Sexy Sedilla.
Neruzian.
RPG.
Underground. (Highly Recommended Reading.)
Rolling.
OxyMoron.
Gulf.
Stargate.
Independent.
Mob Justice was entirely eaten.
RPG 2 was entirely eaten.
Flash 4 was entirely eaten.
Little Town.

Won't be used in the case against Junpei directly, obviously, but they make good convenient references which I might need.

[mastin2]

Damn.

I wanted to finish tonight, but that's not happening. (Any other week. ANY other week of the year, it would.) Masochistic as I am, this is the ONLY week in the year where I canNOT afford to abuse my body as I normally do in mafia games--it's the only week where instead of sacrificing real life for mafia, I sacrifice mafia* for real life. Sorry. I'll continue work on it when I have the capability to do so tomorrow, and if I don't finish, that will continue until I do. Life sucks.

*Same reason I wasn't here to PM Zor during Team Mafia, by the way. A week later, woulda been fine. Nope! Had to be THIS week.

[mastin2]

Introduction

:

My Original Junpei Read:

My scumread on Junpei did not start early-on. It wasn't until after I had scrapped my old reads and decided to start from scratch, in fact, that I even thought he could be scum. That's because I had a weak townread on him which outlived its expiration date. The reason for the townread?

He posted "/confirm". I did a search for the term "confirm" in his games; he doesn't use it often, but I never found a game where he used it as scum playing from the beginning (Speed Mafia was D2). That was my tell on him, and made me stubbornly refuse to change my opinion until I opened my eyes to everyone.

And this is what I saw.

How The Read Changed:

I will elaborate when I get to the appropriate section, but the read changed when Junpei jumped onto the rack wagon--it wasn't that he was on the rack wagon, specifically, but rather his stance on things not two pages earlier, and then I saw the truth.

From The Beginning

:

But let's go back. Let's go through Junpei's posts, piece by piece, and show exactly why he is not town.

Holy shit, has the game even started? And most of this is useless, and we already have insults!

Junpei prides himself on being in control of himself, and yet he clearly was expressing (via language and the exclamation mark) clear signs of emotion, which is far from the objectiveness he aims for.

As town, this is counterproductive to his stated goal. It also is useless, in that his comment by itself doesn't discourage people from posting more, as he does not call out any specific names, not giving requests to any players as he had done to me.

As scum, this is productive, because showing emotions

does

further his wincon, because the surprise/annoyance/whatever emotion he tried to convey (I can't really tell, since it failed and felt artificial) is something which is meant to excuse his lack of commentary, allowing him to not call out any specific players to single out, as he does not wish for that.

His observation is meant to look town, but it really is little more than IioA, as he makes nothing of the insults.

It also makes for a theoretically nice bridge into his point about me not spamming, but it falls flat as the point looks out of place, as pointed out in my interactions spoiler.

Furthermore, NihilisticNinja was correct--the content was not in fact useless at all. A pro-town player can use information from any page to form logical opinions. A pro-scum player can use an excuse to avoid forming an opinion based off of the logic given so far, as they are not able to properly manipulate anyone at that stage.

A good gentlemen keeps his thoughts in his head and his learning applied.

Here, he asks me to keep my thoughts organized and basically controlled. And I complied. I created a quicktopic, where I dumped my rambling thoughts and began to organize myself. I even said I was creating a quicktopic, in the post above (60).

God dammit Mastin, how many games are you in?

This is the same tone as his first post, delivering a single message, despite how I basically was doing exactly what he asked me to--rather than spamposting the thread, I did my best to gather my thoughts logically to form my case as it stood at that point in time. I organized: while there was still fluff present which I couldn't get rid of, I was not chaotic with my thoughts.

The whole post is all fluff, as he does nothing in there. From a logical town standpoint, there was pretty much no reason to call me out on doing exactly what he asked me to do.

From a scum viewpoint, calling me out on walling looked like it was something which fell in line with his "too much spamposting" line of thought, forgetting that organizing my thoughts is exactly what he asked me to do, and I was following his request--and that therefore, his post which is meant to appear solid would convey nothing.

but the fail in the earlier version is so much that I think it could be faked.

And here is where the QT begins to come into the equation. I had said I had started a QT--me having a QT in every game is something easily researchable, especially since I just gave links to every game where I have them. I even said I had typed the message up in the QT.

And yet Junpei thinks that the thing could be faked. This goes against logic, because if I say I do something in a QT, anyone looking into my history will realize that I've done that thing in my QT. For someone who prides himself on being objective, this is a terribly subjective and unsubstantiated claim.

But beyond meta, which he has at points claimed not to have known. (At other points saying the opposite, that he does know. But more on that later.) Let's assume that he was unaware of my quicktopics being made constantly.

Then let's look at this statement. He is saying that it "could be faked", but is refusing to take a stronger stance. He isn't committing to it having been faked, but rather, is leaving the door open to the possibility, a door he doesn't take until much later into the game.

As town, it makes no logical sense to not take a clear stance, for it can lead to confusion as others can't tell what your opinion on it is. As scum, it makes perfect logical sense to not take a clear stance, because it allows you to take either side as you please.

At this point, Junpei had given no content at all. Many players (in fact, almost everyone) had given content, voted, and/or formed opinions on a significant portion of the playerlist, whereas Junpei had done nothing.

While he was V/LA, he did not even try to form reads, instead using V/LA as an excuse not to give content and not to answer many people's questions of him, selectively quoting only what he chose to when he did come in.

His excuse?

Because I have so much going on in my life and I'm in too many games. Also this isn't exactly a playerlist known for understanding succinct and graceful ways to get their points across. I just need to find time to do so.

Real life (his V/LA), too many games (the thing he was trying to chastize me for, which means this is hypocrisy), and a jab which was most likely directed at me (when I was among the more concise posters at that point).

As you can tell, it does not hold very well.

By page 27, his V/LA has been over for three days, and yet he still has yet to give any content at all--lurking. As town, this does not make sense logically. The longer you wait, the further you'd be behind and therefore the harder it would be to get caught up. As scum, this makes perfect sense, as he can lurk to his heart's content and mostly get away with it.

HezLucky said it best.

All you've done is one liners. All you do is bitch about how long Mastin's walls are. You're lurking like Jason and I, but unlike either of us you've done nothing but post fluff to make yourself LOOK active.

Junpei's response to this was to claim he was still not caught up, and this little gem about meta:

HezLucky, you should meta me or something because I'm conscious about my meta (yeah, meta-thoughts in regards to meta-meta); I don't blame you for the scumread on me though, and I don't expect you to meta me but I felt I should respond to what you wrote since I just read your post.

"You can't meta me; there is NO way anyone can get a reliable meta read on me!"

You know that Mastin-Scum-game Khan recently talked about? Yeah, this is the stance in there which helped get me lynched, for good reason: because (bluntly) it's scummy as hell to deny you can be meta'd. His response doesn't even counter Hez's points--Hez's points were in regards to his (lack of) content, not really based off of Junpei's meta. This was a deflection. Furthermore, it was pointless.

Logically as town, one shouldn't waste time responding to suspicion about not being caught up, as that wastes times saying "I haven't caught up" rather than spending time actually catching up so you can render further comments of that nature no longer necessary.

Logically as town, one might say they haven't caught up if they bring content to the table, such as "I haven't caught up, yet, but from where I am right now, *insert observation here*." With the observation being something which they find important, such as "player X looks scummy for *reason*", or "I don't like the suspicion on Player Y, because they look town for *reason*" and other similar trains of thought.

Logically as scum, you need to address suspicion on you so that it does not get magnified while you are catching up.

In short, there's no town reason to have posted his response, but there's a solid scum motive in having done so.

This post does not add validity to DV's arguments, thus I must assume it is blatant buddying.

Note that Junpei still had no vote. This is the first sign of anything resembling content from his slot. And despite having a lead, he does not follow through and place a vote down.

He also tries to justify it by saying "I must assume". He leaves a back door to get out of this statement if need be, since if redFF were to explain, then he would be able to say, "Oh, well then I guess my assumption was wrong, then". He doesn't take a strong stance and say "this is buddying".

He could have said exactly that, in fact--"This is blatant buddying". For someone who calls me out on not being concise, Junpei himself seems to not be succinct in his thoughts. The fact that it was not adding to DV's arguments was already clear for all to see; the only thing which was needed was the observation of what that meant.

In short, it shows hypocrisy (lack of concise thought after having called out me and others on that exact same thing), a need to justify his read, and a way to back out of said read if need be at the same time...

...All while not following through on this and applying pressure to redFF in the form of a vote. Furthermore, it hints that Junpei is more caught up than he lets on to be, because if you're replying to current comments, then that means you've either abandoned reading older comments or have made significant progress.

There's no logical town explanation for these actions. The closest I can think of would be "I'm not caught up, so maybe this will make more sense when I am", but that doesn't fit with his wording.

There is plenty of scum logic for the actions, as listed above: cautious play meant to give him shelter while he tries to form something to use against a player.

It's only

after

his lack of reads is pointed out that Junpei thinks to give one, and follows through with a redFF vote--again, why the wait? Why not apply the vote immediately?

Logically as town, I can't really think of an explanation for the delay in the vote, other than maybe "I forgot?".

Logically as scum, I already provided the reason for the lack of the vote originally (see above), and the reason that a vote is placed down is because he was called out and realizes that he needs to take a stance to avoid further suspicion from growing.

tl;dr, the series of posts show Junpei to not only be survivalistic but also opportunistic.

The closest we get to real scumhunting from Junpei is this:

I will say the following: Psyche's first two posts

seem contrived

, and your aggressiveness

seems out of place

.

And this post

seems

noncommital. (cwhutididthar?)

As scum, the logical take on this is quite simple--don't take a stronger stance, so that you can change it if required.

As town, the logical take on this would be...that his reads on them aren't strong? That's the best I can come up with. Simply put, it fits better as scum.

It's suspicious that you are playing a massive noob card while simultaneously backing away from all of your previous reads (and thus, content).

This shows massive hypocrisy, in that Junpei is calling me out on 'backing out of my reads' (which I didn't, by the way), when...

-He himself has shown extreme lack of devotion to his reads (since that would require admitting he was wrong if he needed to change them), as shown above and many times below.

-As town who is objective, logically you should be able to realize you are wrong, so from his perspective, me thinking I was wrong would be a

good

thing, as it'd trade subjective initial biases for objective logical reads.

Also I think redFF is scum for more than that; his diction and purpose on that page seems not town motivated.

And a 'champion of logic' resorts to using in his case against a player...their way of speaking, claiming that it's not town-motivated and that it has a scum mindset--oh, for someone like me, a 'baseless claim' such as that would be perfectly fine. It's me, after all.

...But for someone who prizes logic? To not explain WHY the tone was scummy, to not explain WHAT the scum motivation in redFF's purpose was? Not only is this INCREDIBLY hypocritical (see also--his stance on me), but it's also against everything he should stand for, as it is not giving things in an objective manner at all.

The person who put this best is LLD, and I'll quote her for what I'm calling the half-way mark in my case.

His first 9 posts are literally content-less. Nothing exists in them besides mentioning how fast the game is moving and making little aside comments on things that aren't relevant to finding the scum.

Next, he starts to do SOMETHING when he makes a comment about RedFF's logic/saying he is buddying or something stupid like that. On the whole, the two posts it took to say these things were unnecessary and just bad.

Then he gets into a discussion with Librarian, with a vote for RedFF in the middle. You have legitimately said one thing about RedFF this entire game, and your vote on him didn't project any further insight. I am forced to assume you were making this vote with almost no reasoning.

Then the rest of your posts are blatant attempts at trying to justify your terrible posting and vote from before, combined with you asking a bunch of questions that really don't add anything to the hunt for who is scum.

And now to finish the other half.

[mastin2]

CodeX, why do you think there's not much chance of lynching me today? There's at least five or six people who have or are interested in voting me.

[mastin2]

The wagon seems to have died more so when you've actually not posted.

*facepalm*

Why oh why do people keep on telling me that the best way for me to play is to lurk until all the suspicion goes away?

[mastin2]

RedFF is town, we should be lynching Junpei today.

[mastin2]

I implore the solidly town players here like LLD/mastin/SC/code_x/hez(?) to consolidate on a decent wagon.

I'm on Junpei. I could also go onto Pine if needed, though I prefer Junpei over Pine. If I could GET a KK wagon, I'd be oh so happy to join it, but there's just not enough support for it, yet. Similar trend for TML and probably Macros's slot.

There MIGHT be enough for a shotty lynch, but people would probably cry, "But he's a VI!" (To which I'd disagree, point to his play, and say, "Anything but!"; I quite frankly don't see any idiot in his posts.)
Or "There's not enough evidence!" (That's because shotty hasn't posted enough for there to BE much more evidence; it looks quite intentional that shotty's giving as little content as he can get away with.)

Or "There's not really a case!" (To which I'd respond, "There's plenty enough of a case if you bother to read the players who are suspicious of him and have given reasoning.")

Y'know, similar BS protests like that.


But Firestarter I see as town. I'll do what I can to contribute, but I'm not only AFLT (where my QT and therefore case is), but also going into the worst section of my V/LA today, so there's not much I can do.

[mastin2]

Here, have a quickly typed case against shotty. That is, drmyshottyizsik to make sure you understand, not drmyshotgun (who is confirmed town).

-"Why's he scum?"
Look at my post 1260 (isolation # 100) for the case. (I can't link to stuff because right clicking doesn't work on the computer I'm currently on.)

-"But...but he's a VI! An idiot!"
Point one--VIs can still be scum; that does not give them a free pass.
Point two--I've got a player saying that this alleged VI is playing to his scum meta.
Point three--when you ISO him, does he look like an idiot? Does he look like a VI at all, in fact? Or do his posts look like they are all furthering a scum wincon?

-"You don't have much of a case against him!"
That's because there isn't that many posts from him. That itself should set off warning bells. He's not posting often, and when he does, he's contributing little if anything, most of it being parrotting what others have already said. He's both lurking and active lurking. Do these sound like things which further a town win? No? Yeah, didn't think so. He's posting with a scum mindset, to further a scum wincon of not getting lynched and preferably not getting nightkilled either: the butter zone of "suspicious enough to live, but not enough to lynch".

-"Couldn't you say much the same of other players in the game?" Yes and no. Yes, in general I could say many of the same about players above. No, I can't do it in a quick five minute case when I've literally just run out of times, especially not when I can't really think of which players it could apply to off the top of my head and would have to look each of 'em up.

Out of time, so not much more I can add, but you can get the general gist of why he's scumread # 4 on my list and I'd be happy to lynch him.

[mastin2]

In case the Palisade brigade failed,

Mod: V/LA due to access issues

. Should be able to post 'cept on weekends, though I don't have enough time to read ten pages (I need to start from 59) today. (I will tomorrow.)

[mastin2]

So a funny thing happened: for like the first time ever, I actually had an hour MORE than what I thought, rather than an hour LESS.

I've done some browsing, but, uh...well, lotsa townreads are acting like scum and a few scumreads are acting like town, so I kinda need to read again and make sense of stuff.

kdowns (Macros) continues to maybe be scum, but the Khan-Junpei exchange just reads as way too intense bussing (especially if I'm right about it being multiscum) for it to actually be bussing. TML's Pine vote also kinda puts a dampener on my TML-Pine(-shotty) scumteam theory, and the wagon on Pine doesn't really seem apetizing for some reason, though I'll need to check the names on it to make sure. Of the two, Pine looks better than TML.

So, put simply: still have relatively strong scumread on TML and shotty, have a weaker scumread on kdowns, Junpei and Khan definitely contains one scum but not sure about both, and Pine might not be scum, so when I have more time, I need to look things over again.

[mastin2]

1. Psyche <--Prob-town. I eliminated him, and nothing I see makes me think that should change.
2. Kublai Khan <--Reassessing.
3. scooby <--Prob-town. Not as much as Psyche above, but still gives off uncommitted town vibes.
4. FakeGod <--Reassessing.
5. OhGodMyLife <--I eliminated Firestarter, and OGML's entrance into the game was quite strong, so most likely town.
6. The Mini-Librarian <--Prob-scum.
8. DeasVail <--Reassessing.
9. kdowns <--Might-be-scum.
10. Code_X <--Prob-town.
11. Benmage <--Was near the top of my townlist if memory serves; need to take another look.
12. Pine <--Ditto. Reassessing.
13. drmyshottyizsik <--Prob-scum.
14. HezLucky <--Prob-town.
15. drmyshotgun <--Conf-town.
16. Nero Cain <--Prob-town. His posting's getting stronger and stronger.
17. redFF <--Good-as-conf-town.
20. Lady Lambdadelta <--Prob-town. Her posting continues to look good.
21. Junpei <--Reassessing, but prob-scum.
22. Maxous <--Eliminated, and I don't think that needs changing.
24. StrangerCoug <--Prob-town due to GreyICE.

On the bright side, I'll have all of tonight to dream of the game and ponder it when I'm more awake. And furthermore, tomorrow after I've actually done that, I won't have to waste as much time getting caught up so will have more time to work out the above.

[mastin2]

Nero WTF, get back on the Junpei wagon

^That.

Nero, you're right: TML IS scum. But there's not enough support to lynch TML today, nor the time to sway people. You can't get the lynch no matter how much you might want it. But you CAN bargain with people--"I'll support you on *alsoscummyplayer*, in exchange for you supporting me on TML tomorrow when we have the time to lynch 'im." or something like that. In this case, I'd be more than happy--thrilled, even--to join you on a TML wagon...tomorrow.

But today, it's Junpei.

[mastin2]

mastin2 (2) - Pine, Junpei
kdowns (2) - Code_X, DeasVail
The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
OhGodMyLife (1) - redFF

Not Voting (3)- FakeGod

This is eight people who are effectively wasting their votes. (Make it nine, with Nero on TML with SC.) I'd be willing to be that there is a MINIMUM of two--probably three--scum in this pile. (Junpei and shotty for sure.)

There are only two realistic lynch candidates today--Junpei and Pine. I'm having second thoughts on Pine, but Junpei continues to come off as scum.

[mastin2]

By the way, close-but-not-quite. I've concluded Junpei's scum, shotty's scum, and TML's scum. And for the three scumslots remaining, I've narrowed it down. FakeGod, DeasVail, kdowns (Macros), and Pine. HEAVILY thinking DV and kdowns are scum in there, so really it's basically between Pine and FakeGod for the last slot.

(*shudders*. Yes, that means a townread on Khan. I've devoted multiple paragraphs in my QT to why "this is a bad idea, this is a bad read, this is a bad idea this is a bad idea thisisabadidea...", but dang it, if he's scum he's playing exactly as he'd need to be in order for me to think he's town. )

[mastin2]

Oh whoops, I hope I didn't hammer.

I think it's L-1.

This is why DV's moved back to scum, by the way. The correct followthrough to "I hote I didn't hammer" is to UNVOTE.

[mastin2]

Seacore (10) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, drmyshotgun, Psyche, kdowns, Junpei, redFF, DeasVail
Junpei (8) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife, Kublai Kahn, Nero Cain, Code_X, Seacore
The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik

Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

So as I see it, Junpei, DV, and TML can't all be on the same team. However, two of them obviously are. I kinda get DV-TML vibes. Who's the third on their team, not exactly sure, but I'd take a guess at it being FG. As for the other team, it's Junpei (obviously), and if FG's scum with DV-TML, then that means Junpei's scum with shotty.

Can't remember who my sixth scumread was

, oh, right, it's kdowns (also on the Pine/Seacore wagon), which of course adds to it:
Junpei, FG, kdowns, and TML are all scum, from two different factions. kdowns-Junpei fits (see also: kdowns is Macros), and not only by gut but also by POE, DV-TML fits as well. The only thing to determine is which team Shotty and FG are on, but it's more like a minor detail than anything else.

And, yes, this means I think that the Junpei counterwagon is all town.

[mastin2]

...Then again, given...

...Then again, given...

...This, it's POSSIBLE DV's on Junpei's team. Will have to look into it a lil' bit more.

[mastin2]

Ah, good. Khan actually died. That's convenient; I was beginning to doubt my Junpei scumread in favor of a Khan scumread. Not anymore!

VOTE: Junpei.

Teams as they stand are Junpei-kdowns DV | TML-shotty-FG.
Worked it out last night.

[mastin2]

That said, though, there IS a chance of it being a different distribution. A Junpei-kdowns-FG | DV-TML-shotty division is fully possible, though given TML's and DV's posts near the end of yesterday, I find it less probable.

Either way, Junpei's scum with kdowns; TML's scum with shotty. The only variable here is whether DV is scum with Junpei or with TML. (DV--as I noted before--can't be scum with FG. Also as noted before, kdowns can pretty much only be scum with Junpei. Those two factors combined don't leave a lot of variance possible.)

[mastin2]

Anyway, paraphrasing my QT below.

Spoiler: Not Exact Words

My timing was good; when I came in to post my series of posts, I had no clue there had been a lynch, so it's good that I got my insight in. Re-thinking my KK townread, as per the standard, but I think it mainly depends on whether I live or die. I live, he's scum, I die, irrelevant, but he's town.

FG's vote was pretty much a scumclaim, but it's not with DV.

With five suspects on the wagon, there has to be an entire team on there (NOTE--this is one of the reasons I'm paranoid I'm wrong on one or two of my reads), and my guess is the kdowns-Junpei-DV scumteam. The alternative is Junpei-kdowns-DV, though I find it less likely. Still, Junpei's scum with kdowns; TML's scum with shotty.

Theoretically, I could be wrong (due to my scumreads requiring an entire team to be on the wagon), but who'd I be wrong on?
Shotty? Who is scum in everything he does? A scum meta, a scum motive, a scum agenda in mind?
TML? Who keeps on getting scummier and scummier?
FG? Who gets worse and worse?
DV? Who's done more than enough to earn that scumspot back?
kdowns? Who's not playing at all to his town-self and is basically ignoring the game, active-lurking along-side standard lurking?

Realistically, the only one I could really be wrong about is Junpei, but that'd require Khan to be scum in his place, due to their interactions. (NOTE: Khan's death has of course remedied this problem. Junpei's pretty much confscum thanks to that.)

*List of townreads, along with their chances of changing or remaining the same--strength was in order strongest-weakest, "Not Changing", "Prob not changing", "Likely not changing", "Junpei wagon for insta-towncred", and "ditto"*
I suppose I could theoretically be wrong, but I really don't see how, ESPECIALLY if Junpei's scum.

[mastin2]

Short on time at the moment, but someone asked me what I thought about people I said were on the same team voting each other. The answer's quite simple, in that it's making me doubt my reads; most of them have two or three of each other in their scumreads, and the teams aren't making sense to me at this moment. I'm short on time and will have to think things through when I have more, but still, I *might* be wrong on one or two of my reads.

To the point where.

Unvote

.

...I'm not sure where to vote.

Vote: DesaVail.

kdowns is probably my second-strongest, shotty my third, FG's fourth or fifth, Junpei's the other, and TML's the weakest sixth. But all of these reads need updating. I'll get back to you on that shortly.

[mastin2]

Actually.

Let's do some NK analysis.

gunny was killed, obviously, for being confirmed town. So it's a scumkill.
Khan was nearly-universally considered town, being logical and a strong player, which is pretty much 98% guaranteed to be a scumkill. Meaning two anti-town factions. But more on the Khan kill later.

Antihero was killed, because when you look at his attitude in hindsight, it's pretty freakin' obvious what he was softclaiming. Since we know there are two scumkills from last night, there's no chance this is a vig; it has to be another faction taking him out. But assuming it wasn't his softclaim which killed him and it was his reads, I can't go by the reads gunny gave, as the scum wouldn't know about those. All I have is this.

Scum: rack, Fake God, Junpei, firestarter, drmyshottyizsik
Null (scummy): scooby, psyche, pine

Obviously, rack and Pine are both town, but note that he has FG, Junpei, and shotty all as scum. These scumreads probably won't be changing any time soon.
But also important are the Firestarter/OGML, Psyche, and scooby scumreads, which I need to take into consideration.

Vijay, on the other hand, wasn't an obvious PR. And unless the OTHER scumteam guessed his masonness based off of Antihero but still chose to kill him figuring the other team'd go for Antihero, it's FAR more likely he was killed for his reads. He was quite suspicious of the rack wagon in general, so again, there's probably 4-5 scum on there.

Think about it, we've got 2 weeks till deadline and we have 8 people just chilling on Rack. It seems like people can get away with coasting on the Rack wagon because saying "herpderp he not posting, he sucks" is enough scumhunting.

I'll need to check out who the 8 on rack's wagon as of that post (812), but note that there's also this.

Junpei. I had him as scum, but because RedFF was a fairly hard target my read improved to probscum.

Obviously, Junpei can't be scum on both scumteams, but still, both masons expressed in-thread suspicion of him, and he WAS one of the hardest pushers of the Pine wagon, which rack found quite scummy. On to Khan and looking at where the rack wagon stood at that point in time.

[mastin2]

While Khan's last moments were a flurry of Seacore hate, he does have a jab at psyche worth looking into. Was also here. But before the Seacore push, he was all-over Junpei. And had been the entire game. (His entire ISO from that point up to his switch onto Seacore is pretty much devoted to Junpei.)

Other notable reads of his are the scumread on Nero and the weak scumread on kdowns's slot.

[mastin2]

rack (8)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE

The wagon at the point Vijay called it out. Problem is, other than TML and maybe-Firestarter, this wagon at the point described is made up almost entirely of townreads. Which of course can only mean one thing:

I have a townread on someone I shouldn't.


I'm piecing things together in my mind at the moment. Basically, though, I'm looking at Nero, kdowns, Psyche, Junpei (Khan), FG, Shotty, Firestarter, scooby (Antihero), kdowns, DV, and TML (myself, mainly). 11 names, 6 slots; got some work to do.

[mastin2]

[Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan, Pine

, Lady Lambdadelta,

Candy Corn Vampire

], {NihilisticNinja, Psyche}, (mastin2, Maxous, DV).
[Voting]{Voted}(Interested).

rack (11)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain, FakeGod

rack (13)- Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

, Lady Lambdadelta,

drmyshotgun

, Maxous, GreyICE,

Antihero

, Nero Cain, FakeGod, Junpei,

Pine, Antihero

Pine (5) - Maxous, DeasVail,

drmyshotgun

, scooby, Psyche
Nero Cain (3)- The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

, Junpei
Junpei (3) - HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2
The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
redFF (1) - Code_X
Firestarter (1) - redFF
drmyshotgun (1) -

Pine

mastin2 (4) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail, Code_X
Pine (3) - Maxous,

drmyshotgun

, scooby
Junpei (3) - HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2
Nero Cain (2)- The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche

Pine (4) - Maxous, scooby, The Mini-Librarian,

Kublai Khan

mastin2 (3) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail
redFF (3) - Code_X, drmyshottyizsik,

drmyshotgun

Junpei (3) - Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, HezLucky
The Mini-Librarian(1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche

mastin2 (6) -

Pine

, Junpei, DeasVail, StrangerCoug, Benmage, Code_X
Junpei (4) - mastin2, HezLucky,

Kublai Kahn

, Lady Lambdadelta
Pine (2) - Maxous, scooby
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
drmyshottyizsik (1) - The Mini-Librarian
The Mini-Librarian (1) - Nero Cain
Firestarter (1) - redFF
DeasVail (1) - Psyche
Not Voting (5)- Firestarter, FakeGod, kdowns,

drmyshotgun

And here's where things get interesting.

Next page, redFF and Psyche join the Pinewagon.

Khan

, Benmage, and TML join in rapid succession as well.
SC and Nero begin a mini-wagon (pun intended ) on Librarian.

Page after that,

gunny

and DV are next to join.
Psyche gets off of Pine, going to TML, while Nero gets off TML for Junpei. This takes us to the next votecount...

Pine (7) - Maxous, scooby,

Kublai Kahn

, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, DeasVail
Junpei (4) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, Nero Cain
mastin2 (3) -

Pine

, Junpei, Code_X
The Mini-Librarian (2) - StrangerCoug, Psyche
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Firestarter (1) - redFF
Not Voting (3)- Firestarter, FakeGod, kdowns

Here, where Pine's now the main wagon.

Psyche and Kdowns join in; CodeX switches to Kdowns, and DV gets off the Pine wagon to pursue kdowns.

OGML comes in and immediately gets onto Junpei. The result is this:

Pine (8) - Maxous, scooby,

Kublai Kahn

, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns
Junpei (5) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, Nero Cain, OhGodMyLife,
mastin2 (2) -

Pine

, Junpei
kdowns (2) - Code_X, DeasVail
The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
OhGodMyLife (1) - redFF
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

Khan switches boats to the Junpei wagon, and Nero goes back to TML, abandoning Junpei's wagon once more. When called out on it, he jumps back on; in response, Junpei votes Pine. Bringing us to this:

Pine (8) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns, Junpei
Junpei (6) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain
kdowns (2) - Code_X, DeasVail
mastin2 (1) -

Pine

The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
OhGodMyLife (1) - redFF
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

redFF joins in immediately after that, voting Pine. CodeX abandons the kdowns wagon, and goes to the Junpei (?) wagon.
Seacore (Pine) joins the Junpei wagon out of self-preservation, and in response, DV joins back in on the Pine/Seacore wagon.

Which brings us to here.

Seacore (10) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, Psyche, kdowns, Junpei, redFF, DeasVail
Junpei (8) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain, Code_X,

Seacore

The Mini-Librarian (1) - StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Not Voting (1)- FakeGod

Note that the Junpei wagon is entirely made up of people who are townreads, and the Seacore wagon is made up almost entirely by those who I have cast suspicion on, having six names of interest on there. With more to come!

SC on the next page abandons TML, going for Junpei as well. (Note, another townread.)

Psyche also jumps ship, changing from the Pine wagon to the Junpei wagon in the process.

After Khan's fakehammer, on the next page, though, Psyche immediately unvotes. Resulting in this:

Seacore (9) - Maxous, scooby, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian,

drmyshotgun

, kdowns, Junpei, redFF, DeasVail
Junpei (9) - mastin2, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, OhGodMyLife,

Kublai Kahn

, Nero Cain, Code_X,

Seacore

, StrangerCoug
redFF (1) - drmyshottyizsik
Not Voting (2)- FakeGod, Psyche

Benmage switches over to Junpei, abandoning the Seacore wagon and putting Junpei at L-1 again.

Unfortunately, on the next page, Khan goes all derp and switches over to Seacore from Junpei, nullifying things back to 9-9.
FG joins in, putting Seacore to L-1.

On the next page, Seacore commits suicide by unvoting Junpei, ensuring his own lynch, but casts a final glare at DV. (Don't worry, Sea. I have not forgotten this. *points to current vote* As a guy who hates it when people lynched have their reads ignored, I make sure to pay attention to the reads of those who have been lynched*. It's one of the things which made me doubt my Junpei scumread, in fact, though with Khan's death, I'm again thinking scum.)

*Speaking of which, I should take another look at rack's reads. I know I took 'em into consideration before, but I don't remember 'em at this moment.

Psyche comes in and drops the hammer on the lynch, ending the day.


I've got some crossreferencing to do. Antihero and Vijay's public reads, along with their final reads via gunny's paraphrase. Khan's reads. Seacore's opinions, rack's reads, and my own instinct and intuition, all referenced with how the votes were flying yesterday, also comparing them to the rack wagon.

[mastin2]

This is too much information for me to process at once. I've copied it all into my QT, so I should be able to work on it tonight, though you won't see the results 'til tomorrow. I think the key here does lie in the wagons and nightkills. Normally, they're not that good of tools, but in this case, with the deadline rush yesterday and the rack coasting on day one and the unusual choice of nightkills......

...There's a chance at pinning things down.

[mastin2]

Hey, OGML. What's your stance on lurking?

[mastin2]

I can't believe that worked.

In the immortal words of MeMe, post or perish.

I didn't think you were THAT stupid.

Arg. I have six slots, but it's like I need seven or eight to contain all the scum.

Psyche had been under attack by Khan, and ended up dead. Psyche was also among Antihero's suspects. Furthermore, Psyche really hasn't done much of anything for pretty much the entire game. Remembering Psyche's contributions over the whole game (will need to double-check when I have ISO capabilities), I don't really remember anything resembling true content.

Firestarter was under attack by Antihero, who ended up dead. Firestarter's posts had content, yes, but they were mainly active lurking.
Furthermore, I caught OGML lurking yesterday. He was browsing the forum for a good few minutes, then disappeared. I waited, thinking he was making a post, but got...nothing. I'll be QUITE interested in OGML's response to my question, since he could become confscum from it. But I have my doubts. He knows the strategy of which I speak. I was using it even three years ago, when he saw me playing as Mastin. And even if he doesn't, he knows of the strategy in general. He's far too competent a player to fall into that trap, as evident by his play--what he says seems to make quite a bit of sense, but he's an experienced, logical, veteran player: which means the best way to read him is to look at his actions over the course of the game and see if they further a scum or town agenda. It's a little hard to do without a Junpei flip, but my current thought is that his actions ARE with a scum mindset, and that he's not pursuing the town's interests, but it warrants checking.

(EDIT: As it turns out, he actually did respond in the extremely stupid way I thought he wouldn't. Now if he had been writing some awesome post--not necessarily a wall, but a strong post which obviously required the reading which I saw him doing--then it'd also have been excused. But he had nothing. His post was just a weak response to mine, nothing more, nothing suggesting he was doing the level of reading required for me to have seen him long enough to think he was lurking. Which means he was in fact lurking, as he gave no content despite having been here reading.)

Macros was playing exactly as I'd expect a scum player to have been playing. Not only that, but when kdowns came to replace him, he started lurking hardcore. Seriously, HARD. CORE. LURKING. And when he DID come, his content? Was active-lurking. It was junk. He's been posting filler. He's given absolutely nothing to this game. This is in complete contrast with what I know of his townplay, where he proved to be active and actually somewhat logical with his game--he was still a weak player overall and nearly got lynched, but it was not through lack of trying.
As a final nail in the coffin, Khan showed minor suspicion of that slot.

FakeGod has done nothing this whole time. Basically, FG is playing pretty much like kdowns is, only FG posts slightly more often. FG lurks, not posting nearly as often as he should, and more than that, FG's posts are pretty much junk. FG is being intentionally cryptic with what little content FG does produce, as if trying to minimize actual contribution to the game.
But it gets worse for FG, as Antihero expressed serious suspicion of FG.

As for DesaVail, my number one suspect and my current vote? For starters, DV was the #1 suspect of the dying townies, with both rack and Seacore wishing they could take DV to the grave. But putting aside the lynched (because, surely, they're bad players for having gotten lynched and therefore their reads should be ignored, right?* ), let's look at the nightkilled: while Antihero had DV as town-looking compared to others, he correctly pointed out DV's white-knighting.

But let's go beyond that and go into DV's posting history. While DV did start out fairly strong, DV's posts have been getting progressively worse with time. He's shown cognitive dissonance and extreme opportunism, joining both the rack and the Pine/Seacore wagons. He was also a member of my wagon when it looked like I was a viable lynch, and also pursued kdowns (again, when a wagon on him looked viable). In other words, DV joined pretty much every single major wagon except for Junpei's. And even then, I'm fairly certain DV has expressed interest in wagoning many people which DV didn't end up voting. DV's been giving progressively less and less content, asking fewer questions, and basically has gone from actively contributing to just passively checking in, making statements about people he's willing to lynch, and leaving it at that, having ceased trying to get more info.

(*If you couldn't tell by the obvious sarcasm, the answer is No. No, they should NEVER be ignored.)


As for Junpei...well, he's gone from my strongest scumread to my weakest scumread due to the conflict. As you can tell by the above reads, they're pretty strong. Junpei...isn't. I *might* be willing to lynch him, just to remove the doubt, and because if he WERE scum, there are definitely good connections (e.g. DV and kdowns) and because he will always, ALWAYS be on the town's radar and will never be safe from being lynched, potentially being a distraction and lylo-mislynch-bait...

...But I really, REALLY do not like the idea of lynching someone who has a large shot at being town. Granted, yes, there's a lot against him--he was Khan's strongest suspect; Khan died. He was one of the strongest suspects of BOTH masons; the masons died. He was among rack's suspects as well. Plus, add in his extremely scummy posting, and all-in-all, he looks like caught scum, especially considering he has ties to other extremely scummy players such as DV and kdowns.

...But there's ALSO a lot in his favor. For instance, Seacore more-or-less (this is from memory, so I'll need to double-check the wording to confirm) said that the PineVJunpei lynch debate seemed like scum didn't really care which side they picked, because they knew both were town. A vibe I kinda share, with how things went down. Furthermore, I can maybe see his play as town, and I know that I suck at reading him, so it's very possible that all my hatred against him is exactly what the scum want me to be doing, to get him (town) lynched. Plus (while we know he was wrong about Seacore being scum, which was his main reason for this) Khan technically died thinking Junpei was town, anyway. And the masons very well might have been killed for, y'know, being masons, rather than for their reads.

All-in-all, I don't like the prospect of lynching him. Not without doing a HECK of a lot more research.


There are other suspects as well.
For shotty, there's the fact that Antihero died thinking shotty was scum, giving quite convincing reasoning as to why. Furthermore, when doing an ISO of shotty, I saw nothing but scum-motivated moves. The only thing keeping shotty from being lynched is that shotty's a low-key, low-activity player, who has gotten away with both lurking AND active lurking, but has been ignored in favor of higher-activity players such as Junpei.

For TML, I like Antihero's reasons, and I like Nero's reasons, and this seems to fit with TML's scumplay overall in the game we were scum together. His actions seem like they overall further a scum mindset more than they do a town mindset, but it's a weak read.


Other figures of interest (but not on my needs-to-die list) are Nero, scooby, Maxous, and SC.

On the one hand, Nero's play has been at a lot of times incredibly anti-town. Khan also had some serious suspicion on him. Rack had a small jab at him as well. On the other hand, the masons thought he was town. His play at other times has been quite strong, and his insistence on going after certain targets (LLD, for instance) gives off a stubborn town-vibe rather than a scum-vibe. Plus, the fact that many people I've shown suspicion of have approved of the Nero lynch gives me extreme hesitance to think of him being scum, but nonetheless, he's someone I've got my eye on.

Scooby's given pretty much nothing the whole game--this itself would warrant attention, but it's apparently just the way scooby plays. There's not really much to see, and what you do see doesn't look very pretty. Overall, you can definitely see scum motive in his posts, but I can also see him as just being minimalistic town contributing things as he sees them. Plus, given the amount of suspicion I've seen casually thrown his way (keeping him in the lynch pile, but near the bottom--basically, saving him for a lylo mislynch) makes me heavily lean town.

For SC, on the one hand, GI was playing pretty town overall. Plus, the whole language debate and GI replacing out in the manner he did gives off some extremely strong townvibes. SC's posting has also been overall pretty dang strong, with a lot of logic in it and many good suspects. On the other hand, GI always plays strong, replacing out coulda been done as scum, and SC's posts have contained things which could come from a scum mindset. (SC--like OGML--is someone who is best read by their overall play.) His play could easily come across as scum playing the long-game. But I'm not sure about that, and his posts (while sometimes giving me bad vibes and seeming a little artificial at times) overall seem to be genuine, so I'm willing to keep my faith in his slot.

Maxous is on the list, for the same reason that Antihero described him: he could be surprise-scum. That was true on day one, and it's true to this very moment. There's simply no better words for it. His play looks fairly good, in that he seems to be contributing relatively actively, and his reads seem overall to be legitimate. His interactions with others do not scream scum, and in fact with the way he plays, they seem pretty town overall. But I feel like Maxous is capable of giving more to the game than he actually is. I feel as if Maxous is not being completely open with us, that he's not giving us his full attention. Like his reads are half-hearted and not fully fleshed out, kinda sorta giving a coasting kind of vibe. Again, that's the sort of play that you'd expect to see from scum playing the long-game--staying middle-of-the-road, devoting JUST enough to stay off people's radar, but not enough to make people question why Maxous still lives.
Which, again, means that overall he's a townread, but again, could still be surprise-scum.


In short,
STRONGLY SCUM:
DeasVail
Psyche

OGML

PROBABLY SCUM:

Firestarter/OGML

kdowns
FakeGod

COULD BE SCUM:
Junpei
Shotty
TML

*MIGHT* BE SCUM: (But probably aren't)
Nero Cain
scooby
Maxous
StrangerCoug


Fair note, I didn't finish the crossreference with the VCA, and even then, that's not the final step; there's still ISOs I need to do, along with looking with more detail at the events which the VCA describes. But these are my current thoughts as they stand.

[mastin2]

Everything's a trap when talking to me. I never say something without meaning these days, even when it looks like I am. The reason you didn't see me respond was that I hadn't read. That post (other than the parts edited with the update thanks to your response) was typed up this morning while I still had no access to here, but it was based off of things I remembered for the whole of the game. I hadn't read the rest of 85, yet alone, 86-88. (I have by now, of course.)

As for your question, it's in my iso.

There won't be a tomorrow, LLD; the bastards just lynched rack by my count.

Now KK's response was scumtastic, and so was this sudden rush of votes. It's possible that it's a single scumteam, but I was actually rushing home since I realized while driving "crud, this is probably multiscum". I'll see what I can do before the day ends.

First off, why I suddenly think this game is multiscum.
-24-player games with a single scumteam are incredibly rare. The last time I remember being in one, in fact, was Mortal Kombat, which was meant to LOOK like two scumteams. So, number of players in the game.
-Related, ideal balance suggests a single scumteam would be six players. However, when was the last time you saw a six-man scumteam? I quite frankly don't think I've seen one in a long time. And even then, probably a theme. (Again, might be Mortal Kombat. Or maybe Stars Aligned. Games that old.) Six scum is almost universally the realm of multiscum.
-The even number of players suggests a certain kind of symmetry to be present. 24 works out better than 25 or 23 for two scumteams.
-The town seems to be quick to bandwagon, as shown by the rack lynch when we have nearly two weeks 'til deadline. rack's not the only wagon to have gotten a lot of support, either.
-The way everyone seems to be behaving seems...different...to me. Like it's somehow off. That things aren't the way they should be if this game were single-faction.
-Related, my inability to scumhunt effectively. That itself might not seem much to you, but as Khan said, most of my scumhunting works by interactions: and if the scum are legitimately scumhunting, it makes it incredibly difficult for me to catch them, basically making any time I DO catch one a lucky shot in the dark.

It's not enough to have me firmly convinced, but it's enough that the possibility came to mind, and it does change how I go about the game. I'll double-check things after posting this, though.

Dual masons kinda supports my two-scumteam idea. Especially since both kills
-Were on town,
-Were meant to look kinda town in nature,
And
-No kill went through on a stronger town player.

Drmy, do you have access to the QT Antihero and vijay had?
If so, can you try paraphrasing their conversation, since with both dead, it'd be kinda hard for either of them to do so for us?

Anyway...

VOTE: Kublai Khan.

There are more reasons posted since then, but these were the reasons which got me thinking multiscum in the first place.

[mastin2]

Mastin, you and I are going to have a little talk about your two man scum team theory.

Three man. 3 each, total six.

And it should be quite obvious by now that I'm just a VT. I am not very subtle about these kinds of things.

[mastin2]

If I had a shot, it woulda been on Junpei. Like I said, while I was beginning to doubt Junpei as scum in favor of Khan, I still thought Junpei was scum and that Khan wasn't. And beyond that, if I was right and one of them were scum and the other were town, and I wanted to shoot off of that belief, I'd take out Junpei because Junpei-as-town would not be as competent as Khan-as-town would be. And if Junpei flipped town, Khan lynch. If Junpei flipped scum, got a competent Khan still alive.
If Khan flipped town, Junpei lynch. If Khan flipped scum, got Junpei (who isn't as competent yet believes he is) alive instead.

[mastin2]

We've been over the math before. Like I said. The largest factor in it?

Experience.

You can do the math all you like.
You can throw numbers at me all the time, and warp them to support any opinion possible. (I did the math somewhere and came to the opposite conclusion, that it is perfectly balanced.)

But I've been here.
I have more games in New York than in any other forum.

I've lived larges--particularly normal larges--for the majority of my career.

And again, the norm is 3-man teams. It's been over a year since I saw a 6-man single-faction scumteam--in a large theme. In a normal? Never. Heck, I'd have to double-check to make sure, but I don't think I've even seen a 5-man team! And 4 scum? 4 scum's just not enough. 3-man teams, however, IS the norm. It's what I've seen. It's what is generally the standard with this number of players. You can argue it's not balanced. You can argue that it's a 6-man single scumteam, or maybe a 5-man single scumteam, but again...those just don't happen, (well, would have to double-check the 5-man; it probably has, but none come to mind, so that means it's pretty rare) whereas 4-man single (which is way too few for a game of this size) and 6-man double are standard.

So, yes. I think there are two three-man scumteams, because that's what my experience tells me. It fits with the way the game has played out as well. And when I did the math, it worked out.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: The Conversation

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

And hence where the experience comes in. I've never in my time seen two four-man scumteams.

No, seriously.

I've seen a couple of three-four multiscum games (incredibly rare--there are only two I've seen, Emerald City and Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks; uneven scumteams are INCREDIBLY hard to balance),

but never two teams of four

*. In seventy games. With something like 2/5ths of them being Large.

Besides, 8/24 = 1/3rd, the highest boundary possible. Math and experience say that four scum on a team is impossible.

Heck, even in a 26-player multiscum game, I'd expect three.

*

*Nevermind, thought of one due to the second-sentence I marked, meaning I HAVE seen it before...once. With 26 players, Mirror Mafia (which gave away its setup via the title) had two teams of four, but it was a 26-player game. Not 24.

tl;dr: Theoretically, it'd be possible to have two 4-man scumteams, but my experience tells me differently. Like I said. I know my numbers. Two scumteams of 3 in a game of this size is most likely. (Though as I've said, I'm not sold on it. It makes sense, and it fits with everything I know, but I'm far from positive. We really won't know for sure 'til we have a scumflip.)

42% scum?

Yeah, bad setup.

One can go through the NY games, by the way, and see proof of what I'm saying.

Mirror Mafia had two teams of 4, sure.
Lovers Mafia had two teams of 4, but that was necessary by the very nature of the game.

Every other multiscum game here, from Trumpet's to Rolling in the Deep to Mafia on Werewolf Island to Outdoorsmen Mafia 2...

...Has had two teams of three.

[mastin2]

Well, I DID say it probably has, just that none came to mind. (Understandably; that game was...not something *I* would like to remember having been a part of. ) Whereas I can think of plenty with 4-man single scumteams.

[mastin2]

And all that said...

We could argue all day about this. We could debate the math, we could argue the numbers, we could challenge my claims and look at the facts, and then we could even compare games which are similar to what people say this game should be (4/5/6 scum, with a SK) and see how they don't really match the patterns in this game, whereas comparing it to what *I* say it should be (2 teams of 3) will show how it fits the pattern nearly perfectly...

...Yet in the end, the argument would produce no scum. Because debating theory inside of a game is ultimately pointless, and everyone involved (regardless of their alignment) is speaking truthfully, defending what they believe, hence why this is a subject for MD or post-game.


...So why not just ignore it all and focus on scumhunting? I believe in two three-man teams. You believe I'm wrong. But in the end, it doesn't matter who's right or wrong; that should become evident with time, no? All that me believing that there are two teams of three does is influence the way I scumhunt. It doesn't change the fact that I'm still hunting for scum, the exact same way that I would be if I were hunting for a single scumteam (okay, not *exact*; there are *some* differences with interactions, but for overall play/motive/intention and tone and scumminess of an individual player, that all remains the same), so why is my belief that there are two three-man teams a problem?

[mastin2]

@Mastin: Do you have any town games in your history where you put this much stock in the reads of dead townies?

Every single game after I've come back? (Well, as town, anyway. I'm not sure I've done it as scum. Probably, but no incidents come to mind.) Like I said. I've been there. Before I became mastin2 (as Mastin in 2009), I was lynched a whole HECK of a lot more often than I was NK'd or kept alive 'til endgame. (To the point where I had NEVER lived to 3P lylo; the only time I was IN 3P lylo, I replaced into it.) And I hated how people ignored me. And I know others who are lynched feel the same way. They don't like being ignored just because they weren't charismatic enough to dodge the lynch. (Because, let's face it. When it comes down to it, it's not the most scummy player who gets lynched; it's the least charismatic player.)

And on my return, I ended up being NK'd a whole HECK of a lot more than I was lynched*, and I SCREAMED from the graveyard for people to do NK analysis and not write it off as WIFOM, because writing things off as WIFOM is exactly what allows scum to get away with pulling things they by all rights shouldn't.

(*By the way, still end up being NK'd more often, but again, I don't get lynched often, either. I've actually started surviving to endgame a lot more frequently than I used to, but if I don't, chances are I either LET myself be lynched or was nightkilled. Or replaced into an unsalvageable obvscum slot. )

Hence, why I'm pretty much one of a dying unique breed, those who pay attention to the flips and what they mean.

[mastin2]

By the way, we have a little over a week 'til deadline, so I'd suggest we begin coordinating. Obviously, one of the lynch candidates...

Fallman7 (5) - redFF, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, StrangerCoug, OhGodMyLife

...Is Junpei's slot, but in addition to me no longer strongly believing he's scum, there's also the fact that his replacement deserves the chance to not only catch up, but give content, ESPECIALLY if the slot's town. (See also: what we shoulda done for Seacore.)

So I'd rather not.
As for...

Nero Cain (1) - FakeGod
maxwell (1) - Benmage

When it comes to Nero, there's not only not enough support, but also not enough suspicion as far as I'm concerned; while I have my eye on him, he's not someone I'd want to lynch any day soon.
When it comes to maxwell (shotty's slot), I don't think there's enough support, plus there's the fact that said slot has given nothing so far, and maxwell has the chance to do that. (Granted, I think the slot's scum, but still, content from scum is still content we can use. Plus--should I be wrong--the slot's content would be legitimate, and therefore should be given.)

Which means neither of those wagons is viable.

...But when it comes to...

kdowns (3) - DeasVail, Maxous, Fallman7
FakeGod (2) - The Mini-Librarian, Nero Cain
DeasVail (2) - mastin2, Code_X

...These three? I'll gladly join any of the wagons. And many others are willing as well, but here's the thing--we can't wagon all of 'em; we need to choose one. While DV's my preferred lynch, I'd be happy to wagon FG or kdowns. Both share similar patterns as well: they've been replacements for some time, yet neither has given anything so much as resembling content. But given the choice between the two, FG HAS given more content than kdowns, whereas kdowns continues to fail to deliver on what he has promised.

So right now, my thought is on kdowns. Any takers?

Unvote, VOTE: kdowns.

[mastin2]

Mastin, why do you no longer believe Junpei is scum?

If you say "because he replaced out" I'm torching your ass.

Do I no longer believe Junpei is scum? No.
Do I think Junpei is town? Also no.

I'm undecided on him, hence yet another reason his replacement should be allowed to stay for a while. The reasons can be found in my wall a page back.

I'm not sold either way, any more. I can see him still being scum, I can see him being town. I simply haven't made up my mind, and when I'm not sold on a lynch, it's best to default to not supporting said lynch.

[mastin2]

Same problem there, LLD, as the other lynches.

While I've definitely made my fair share of enemies in this game, you'd not get enough support to push the lynch through; you'd be better off trying to keep pushing Junpei than pushing me. But go ahead if you'd like; it'd only ensure the Junpei lynch (which I currently do not support) wouldn't go through.

[mastin2]

I rather lynch FG over Kdowns. FG's "content" has been active lurking, fence sitting, IIOA gibberish. And he's had much more time to live.

Not particularly disagreeing with ya there, Nero, but I'm not as confident that a FG lynch will get enough support, so would you be willing to lynch kdowns if there isn't enough support for FG?

[mastin2]

And who was the first one who said they agreed with my multiscum theory, TML?

[mastin2]

Fallman7 (5) - redFF, HezLucky, Lady Lambdadelta, , OhGodMyLife, StrangerCoug
^Could happen, but would prefer it not to.
kdowns (4) - Maxous, Fallman7, mastin2, Code_X
^Lynch candidate # 1.
FakeGod (2) - The Mini-Librarian, Nero Cain
^Lynch candidate #2.
OhGodMyLife (1) - DeasVail
^Would love to see it, but it aint happening today.
Nero Cain (1) - FakeGod
^Not happening today.
maxwell (0) -

Benmage

^Also would be quite happy to see it, but not realistic.

Not Voting (4)- kdowns, maxwell, Psyche, scooby
^WTF, what is this I don't even.

Special weekend catchup from me (it's a one-shot holiday-weekend thing), and I don't really have much to add. Skimmed the thread, and will give more detail on Tuesday.

[mastin2]

I'm around, and--surprise, surprise!--rethinking my reads, so would be willing, but we still have a couple days (okay, maybe not that much, but at least 36 hours) to safely think things through. Why the rush?

(In particular, I like andrew's posts and would very much like to see what andrew has to say once he gets caught up, something which we'd be denied if there was a hammer.)

[mastin2]

We still have a couple days to safely think things through. Why the rush?

(In particular, I like andrew's posts and would very much like to see what andrew has to say once he gets caught up, something which we'd be denied if there was a hammer.)

(Hammer) VOTE: Fallman7

Did I mention DV's still my number one scumread?