NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[MrBuddyLee]

Adding to the list of "things that smart, dead townies said", CES nailed Yos on this one:

Bookitty (8) --

Sotty7

,

Shanba

,

Cogito Ergo Sum

, chamber,

Untrod Tripod

, mathcam,

undo

,

CrashTextDummie

Bookitty (7) --

Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum

, chamber, mathcam,

undo

,

CrashTextDummie

There's got to be at least 1 scum on the Bookitty wagon here, probably 2.

I'm becoming increasingly confident that CES has to be scum here. Mathcam is also on the suspect list.

Vote: CES

Yeah, that's just lazy bullshit. You're really not looking at your own arguments skeptically if you think this is a thing that matters.

Haha, scum couldn't help themselves. "Hurr durr, let's lynch off the Boo-wagon for greater justice. Tee hee!"

[MrBuddyLee]

More CES on Yos:

The (Yos) argument I was calling out was confirmation bias at best and lazy scum play at worst

Even though I realize the Yosarian2wagon is unlikely to go through Today now, I'd still point out that Yosarian2 has been unnaturally sure of himself (#2591 is on the level of broseidon or benmage). He's not approaching his own opinions as things that could be wrong; I definitely don't get the feeling that he's meaningfully digested the points VitaminR or I have made in response to him; the sequence #2596-#2604 also shows him trying to fit every piece of information into a point against me. Especially when you compare it to D1, where he seemed to have much more reasonable opinions and a measured suspicion of LmL - I can't help but see it as bluster so he can keep pushing the way he wants to, since he can't rely on already knowing his target is scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB on Yos:

I'll point out that it's not rare finding a scum in the cohort of timid wagoners, here:

29.5 Yosarian2
18.1 chamber
18.0 MrBuddyLee
16.0 MafiaSSK/mathcam

Do you want to look at the average number of points per wagon? I have this too.

14.7 Yosarian2

for instance if you look at those shy wagoners, that are on two wagons each:
Yosarian2
chamber
MrBuddyLee
>>> Yosarian2 looks very bad

Those that look worse do so because while they were on few wagons, they tended to be on wagon with high probability of the remaining players being scum.

It doesn't look like you are trying to figure out his alignment, it looks like you are trying to smear him.

I'm beginning to get this sense, too, since Yosarian is singularly focused.

If PJ says he has a town read on her based on his comparing her play here to a previous game he played with her, then I'm going to take that seriously. He's confirmed town, and I tend to trust his judgement.

NOW you're scum.

Yosarian is scum for:

(1) Trusting PJ's "meta" on Sotty based on observation of a single game; remember that PJ also tried to "meta" me based on a single game earlier.
(2) We all know meta is crap, who would actually rely on someone else's "meta" proclamations to begin with... and without checking? Not that double-checking makes "meta" anymore reliable.
(3) PJs reads are bad so it's a great place for scum to hide behind.

VOTE: Yosarian

And this is the average "scumminess" per wagon a player is on:

21 Yosarian2

I would not vote Yos.

Translation: "I would not vote my other buddy."

We need to work as a team and I think overall we know we need to lynch the following 3 players:

STD
Yosarian
OMGL

I'm looking at lynching either VitimanR or STD today.

Stupendous! Since we're not lynching VitaminR, we're counting on your STD vote.

(note: Yos later changed this to "vote DGB or STD today")

I'm really thinking that either you or STD is scum

Check your role PM! Then vote STD for town cred.

I don't believe you're trying to figure out my alignment. You know me too well not to know with near absolute certainty that I'm town on this fourth game day. PJ may misled himself. But Yosariantown? Yosariantown would have read me correctly moons ago. Yosariantown would be defending me.

So, just to be clear, you're admitting at this point that either you or STD has to be scum, right? So if we lynch STD and he flips town, you're scum?

THIS

IS NOT

A QUESTION MEANT TO FIGURE OUT MY ALIGNMENT.

Hey Yosarian, how come you're saying that you want to lynch either VitaminR or STD today, but suddenly, if STD flips town, I should walk myself to the guillotine?

I really do want to lynch STD today

Then why is getting you to vote STD like pulling teeth?

Thank you for being so obvscum. I feel a bit sorry for you and your team, but I appreciate that your fighting spirit.

You say you want to lynch STD.

But then you pester me all day to get me to "prove" my alignment.

And you say you want to lynch STD, but you're not pestering STD to "prove" his alignment.

The guy you say you want to lynch, you leave in peace.

4) Good job pulling out Yos out of

the well he has fallen into

by changing the subject to some mindless neutral banter about Porochaz.

(LOL!)

Make no mistake. We will lynch Yosarian. He is scum. We just can't lynch them all at once.

We're lynching STD today and if he flips scum, we lynch you tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yeah, I read the two pages or so of posts that had come since the game came back up.

Does it really take you more then "9 minutes" to read 2 pages of posts, MBL?

It takes five minutes to speed-type your post on LML at 40 WPM. That leaves you four minutes to read two full pages of posts, including giant posts by Zorblag and STD. And that leaves you zero minutes to think.

Zorblag's 354
LML's VCA
STD's blarg where he unvoted LML

You didn't read that shit in four minutes.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why would you quote all that and then ignore the part where she actually got a solid town read on me at the end of the day, around the same time I got a solid town read on her?

She didn't have time to think straight at the end there.. she was scumputing like mad in a desperate attempt to get numbers out before nightfall.

It's charming that you point to that though.

Also, LOL @ "solid town read". You really are the master of hyperbole this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

So you subscribe to the theory that Yos and VitR are scum together, MBL? Which one do you think it would be preferrable to lynch first?

Whichever one's less likely to rat out their scumpartner. Yos is looking pretty tasty right now.

[MrBuddyLee]

If there's two wagons, and one is on scum, I always assume that the other one was being pushed by scum. That assumption is right 99% of the time. You didn't seem to any problem with me making that argument at the time.

It looks increasingly like a town-rich wagon at this point, thus pushing it would be a delicious scum tactic. Even if there's one scum on there, it's still a prime source from which to mine townies. And therefore, anyone pushing that hypothesis TOO forthrightly arouses the nose of the town bloodhounds. Juls noticed it too. I think others may have as well.

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: Yosarian2

[MrBuddyLee]

I think this sums it up best:

I'd still point out that Yosarian2 has been unnaturally sure of himself (#2591 is on the level of broseidon or benmage). He's not approaching his own opinions as things that could be wrong

I don't need to find "the scum as a whole". In order to win, I just need to find one scum a day. Day 1, I found LML and lynched him. Day 2, I found CES. Day 3, I found VitR.

I was unsure about LML, unsure about Boo, unsure about Glork, unsure about CES, unsure about STD and DGB to the very end.

Yos just seems to have too much confidence in his beliefs at every step along the way. Too sure that Boo was town. Too sure that one of STD/DGB had to be scum. Too sure that DGB saying "blarg" meant that STD was scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: Yos

[MrBuddyLee]

40 WPM is not speed-typing. Many of us type a LOT faster than that

It's speed typing when you're thinking about what to say. Do you really think Yos read all of Page 15 and part of 16 AND reviewed LML's post/vote history AND typed up that post in 9 minutes?

Hell, Yos didn't comment on Zorblag's long intro post even though Yos's vote was on Zorblag at start-of-day. Just unvoted him and moved on. Yos actually NEVER commented on a single one of Zorblag's posts. It's entirely possible he never read them at all.

I dunno, man, we had a week off with zero access to the forums. They came back up and everyone muddled around for a bit. But Yos and LML came in with laser focus. LML had a spreadsheet ready to go. Yos speed-read and speed-typed and knew exactly where he was headed. Meh. I have a really, really hard time seeing that happening.. we all get a week off and Yos-town skims the thread and slams LML-scum in 9 minutes, "givin no shits".

[MrBuddyLee]

As happy as I am with this wagon, I find the speed with which GC backed off of his Yos vote a bit unsettling.

Please elaborate. Do GC's actions strengthen or weaken your scumread on Yos?

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos, when did you change your mind on Spyrex?

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, Yos. I feel like you did act kind of weird though. Major props for laser focus on LML day one.. I suppose you should take it as a compliment that your focus felt so over the top that it had to be scummy. I actually had a post lined up ten days ago or so where I counted how often you referenced LML D1 and it was an unreal disproportionate amount. So yeah, you get full credit for him. You still get only partial credit for STD though.

Thanks for stepping in, Juls.

@MBL:

have you ever made a "how long does it take to type a post" argument before?

Probably. I'm totally CSI in my mind.

@MBL:

also, what was this about:

vote: Yosarian2

unvote

vote: Yos

I wanted to slow shit down.. didn't want a momentum lynch happening, wanted people to think and compare "equivalent" wagons and determine which was best. I had a little regret overnight thinking that Yos wasn't as good of a lynch as Poro, but to be honest, I think he had about as good of a chance of coming up scum.. it's just that the hangover from being wrong is worse with Yos. The way Poro's played, if he comes up town, I'll be more mad at him than at myself if I vote him.

Someone please make a compelling case. I've found reasons for mathcam, CDB and Poro to be town and I'd like to discard them all immediately and start fresh.

@Sotty

, I know you're town and all, but cut me some slack on the Yos thing. If you really thought Poro was obvScum you'd be voting him right now. His wagon looked to be coming together a little too easily yesterday, which is rarely a good sign.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey chamber, got a read on the Delibird yet?

[MrBuddyLee]

VitaminR, now that Yos has flipped town, can you provide some comments/revised reads (or the same reads, if they have not changed)? Same question for MBL, please.

I don't have any strong reads right now. It kind of looks like the way things are headed, Poro, cam and CDB are getting the most lynch attention. Their slots haven't really done anything to merit being kept around, but I really need to reread everyone. I'd be surprised if all three of those guys come up town, but if they do, we're fucked. I'm really not great at telling the difference between lazy town and lazy scum. I prefer the more meaty cases that one can make on more active players (LML, CDB) or use to defend more active players (Glork, DGB). My case on Yos was mediocre and it's probably worth looking at who used it as an excuse to vote Yos out.

If ABR comes up scum then cam looks significantly better, but I can't really see this town lynching ABR before cam to provide that evidence. cam went after Poro a bit, so a Poro lynch would provide some info on cam.

Poro got a small amount of townie points for piling on LML, and nothing since then. I don't think there's a living player he's voted for other than a brief dabble on ABR. Glork, DGB, Yos.

CDB went after Prozac. KK went after Glork and strongly defended cam and Spyrex.

It probably makes sense to lynch someone that gives us good info on the other two in that list. I also really want backup suspicions from all three.. Poro in particular doesn't seem to have had very evolved thoughts on many players over the course of the game.

So yeah, jack shit from me. Need to reread and think about VitaminR as well, because while he voted LML for a bunch of D1, he did slip over to PJ at opportune times and bizarrely at the start of D2 as well.

[MrBuddyLee]

@cam

, you posted this a while back:

MBL: Been making a lot of good arguments recently, especially ones that tend to conclude that people are town.

Which arguments that I made did you find "good", and by good, did you mean "convincing"? As a summary, I think I used the following arguments:

* Poro, GC and Boo hypothetical town because STD went after a wagon with himself, LML, Tigris, and those three on it. Would he really draw attention to a wagon heavy with scum? GC and to a lesser extent Poro for their votes on LML.

* cam/SSK for the way LML seemed ashamed to be caught on the SSKwagon.

* Spyrex for his assault on STD, lesser for the style of Nati's replace-out and the multiple replace-outs

and to a lesser extent:

* KK for busing LML at a time when he really really didn't have to, and when ANY other play would have been safe and made more sense as scum, and for being against the CES, Sotty, Spyrex and PJ lynches. Also, the nature of STD's attacks on the KK-wagon {Kublai Khan (3) --

MrBuddyLee

,

Glork

,

DrippingGoofball

} -- risky if KK is scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

UNVOTE: Poro
VOTE: CDB

Vote CDB

What happened to you thinking Poro was the better lynch?

When Porochaz was the obvlynch all damned day, you'll have to excuse me if I'm only a lot suspicious about the fact that Porochaz wasn't yesterday's lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

Just seems odd that you'd be a lot suspicious about something only to participate in the same exact behavior the next game day.

[MrBuddyLee]

Has CDB claimed? Probably a good time for that.

[MrBuddyLee]

Has CDB claimed? Probably a good time for that.

[MrBuddyLee]

Does anyone have a better reason for not lynching Poro, CDB or mathcam?

Notes: Boo is the only person not to have "significantly voted scum" in her reason. This means that at least two remaining scum were involved in the lynch of LML and/or STD.

Best reason for not lynching Bookitty: because she was the alternate wagon to LML and would have been lynched had Glork and DGB not taken a stand.

Best reason for not lynching chamber: consensus is he has a generally townish tone? Was rock solid on STD D4.

Best reason for not lynching Poro: followed STD onto LML D1. Somewhat townish tone at times.

Best reason for not lynching CDB: KK vote on LML D1.

Best reason for not voting GC: Made a consistent, evolving case on LML D1. Used LML's badness to sway other people off of PJ.

Best reason for not voting Spyrex: His poems attacking STD D3/4.

Best reason for not voting Albert: People think he has a townish tone? Helped get the STD D4 wagon started before bailing.

Best reason for not voting VitR: Made an early case against LML, hopped between LML and PJ D1.

Best reason for not voting mathcam: Lent his vote to tip the STD wagon against the DGB wagon.

Best reason for not voting MBL: Case on STD.

I think it makes sense to evaluate the quality of each of these people's pushes/votes on scum. It also makes sense to look at the quality of the reasoning behind their absence from any scum wagon they weren't on. It is possible for scum to make aggressive buses, but it's more common/likely that they bus in a way that keeps their options open to vote out town if possible.

[MrBuddyLee]

Poro was on LML vote 5, never came off, expressed minor willingness to lynch mathcam and undo but mostly pushed for LML. Never found STD scummy, never gave a reason why, found DGB scummy.

CDB/KK was on LML vote 7, not much reasoning, was aggressively anti-DGB and solidly townread STD. Argued aggressively for DGB>STD lynch.

VitR made a case on LML early, hopped off to PJ at the server outage, back on a few days before deadline, back off the day before deadline, back on 12 hrs later. Voted Sotty and Yos during the STD lynch, found STD townish for being pretty active and generally sounding townish. "Like yos", found my case on STD had merit but never voted him.

Albert didn't like LML until May 20th, then said he "sounded town" and moved to PJ. Defended Bookitty stridently. "Was not around at deadline" to help lynch LML or Boo. Defended STD as townish until July 14, then suddenly his suspicions changed entirely. Preferred DGB, Sotty, VitR lynches until then, but on July 14 said Yos, STD and OGML were the scum. Pushed Yos and OGML D3. Voted STD July 19th, POE reasoning, off STD and back on OGML July 21st when STD was at 6 votes.

cam was "not around at deadline" to help lynch LML or Boo. Found LML in top 5 scummiest but nothing significant enough for a vote. Voted Boo. Found STD townish until
July 19th. Was on Poro and Sotty before then. Read DGB as town.

Spyrex wasn't involved in the LML lynch at all. Found STD scummy from moment 1, pushed him aggressively with a few reasons d3 and d4.

Boo found LML townish, PJ scummy. Found STD town as of July 13, switched to wanting STD lynched for DGB's POE reasons July 21st.

chamber defended LML to the death, wouldn't hammer. Voted Seol/Boo. Was sold on the STD case as of July 8th. After that, voted Prozac, Sotty, Yos DGB and OGML before coming back to STD early D4, July 18th. Was also willing to vote Yos and Boo.

GC made a strong case on LML, never wavered D1, kept the heat on. Said "do not lynch Bookitty." Found STD town (but with pause June 14) until voting STD July 6th. On DGB July 13, "tired of the town getting distracted from a DGB lynch", back on STD July 21st to make it 6-3 STD/DGB.

[MrBuddyLee]

Behold...the wall of text meant to distract us from lynching CDB.

What, this?

So I've done that reread on CDB's slot and much like MBL I can't find an obvious reason to vote him.

I must say KK's play actually looks good in hindsight (went after LML in a decisive moment, questioned people who were defending him, etc). It was probably OGML's exuberance and insistence on lynching DGB that put him on the top of many scumlists.

I also liked CDB's few contributions; and the fact that he apparently started to read the game with 0 information other than the known deaths seems indicative of a town mindset.

Also, after rereading Day 1 and that whole SSK vs Tigris thing, I don't think it's plausible that CDB and mathcam are scum together. And I'd still rather lynch mathcam than CDB.

[MrBuddyLee]

Do you guys think there's any chance all the scum are vanilla?

[MrBuddyLee]

CDB, please claim.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry if I'm contributing to making this game boring. I just would really like to win. I think town's played well so far and we deserve it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Back!

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, guys, couldn't post on my way into Burning Man.. cell phone tower was down and then I was VLA for twelve days. Will post later tonight/tomorrow AM after fully catching up.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why do you want to know whether or not I'm the vig?

[MrBuddyLee]

That's not what I asked, Albert and cam. Now that everyone else has claimed vanilla, why do you guys want me specifically to claim?

[MrBuddyLee]

I mean, I didn't really consent to this massclaim.

If I'm the vig, I really don't want to get NKed tonight for claiming, so I should claim vanilla.

If I'm vanilla, I want to get NKed tonight, so I should claim vig.

Boo, Poro, VitR, undo, Spy, do you guys want me to claim? And do you want me to claim truthfully?

[MrBuddyLee]

I think it's probably best that I don't claim, then. Most of you seem to be fairly confident that I'm town, and thus claiming would have at best marginal benefit. If you disagree, I'm glad to discuss.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, thank you, Patrick. I'm really sorry I wasn't able to get in touch with you sooner. I really did try.

[MrBuddyLee]

A brief list of mathcam's deadline crimes, off the top of my head: absent for LML deadline, two quickhammers.

Albert was absent for the LML deadline, as was Poro for one of the deadlines, according to chamber.

Chamber and Boo refused to vote LML until Boo changed vote.

Spy's slot wasn't around to help with the LML deadline.

meh. Who else is there? undo is town. VitR played hanky-panky near LML deadline.

[MrBuddyLee]

lol, fine, whatever, I'll claim vanilla like the rest of you.

ps. what the actual fuck with the hostility

[MrBuddyLee]

The source of the hostility is you going MIA for 10 days and then fucking us around when you get back.

I'm 100% sorry for the unreported shitty absence, and 100% not sorry for the "fucking you around". If you're town, you should be able to analyze and understand the possible reasons why a townie would behave as I am.

[MrBuddyLee]

chamber showed appreciation for the case against STD but didn't push it for a while. as far as I know, that's just his style.

"i'm sold" was his response to the eight point case, which was an extension of earlier posts against STD.

Two weeks later, he added "Primarily the things that are convincing me to vote for STD are 2118, that CES had a scum read there, the 2 POE sets he's in both pointing to him and matchcam (at least from my pov), and yesterdays hammer."

[MrBuddyLee]

Does anyone have a better reason for not lynching Poro, CDB or mathcam?

Notes: Boo is the only person not to have "significantly voted scum" in her reason. This means that at least two remaining scum were involved in the lynch of LML and/or STD.

Best reason for not lynching Bookitty: because she was the alternate wagon to LML and would have been lynched had Glork and DGB not taken a stand.

Best reason for not lynching chamber: consensus is he has a generally townish tone? Was rock solid on STD D4.

Best reason for not lynching Poro: followed STD onto LML D1. Somewhat townish tone at times.

Best reason for not lynching CDB: KK vote on LML D1.

Best reason for not voting GC: Made a consistent, evolving case on LML D1. Used LML's badness to sway other people off of PJ.

Best reason for not voting Spyrex: His poems attacking STD D3/4.

Best reason for not voting Albert: People think he has a townish tone? Helped get the STD D4 wagon started before bailing.

Best reason for not voting VitR: Made an early case against LML, hopped between LML and PJ D1.

Best reason for not voting mathcam: Lent his vote to tip the STD wagon against the DGB wagon.

Best reason for not voting MBL: Case on STD.

I think it makes sense to evaluate the quality of each of these people's pushes/votes on scum. It also makes sense to look at the quality of the reasoning behind their absence from any scum wagon they weren't on. It is possible for scum to make aggressive buses, but it's more common/likely that they bus in a way that keeps their options open to vote out town if possible.

Do you guys agree that this is the approx. order of strengths of reasons to NOT vote for these players?

MBL > GC > VitR > Spy > chamber > CDB > Poro > cam > Boo > Albert

[MrBuddyLee]

lol, really?

[MrBuddyLee]

meh, whatever, I suppose you could be scum or just petulant, annoyed town. That's a terrible, terrible, hall of fame terrible vote though.

Anyone want to take a stab at a ranking of reasons to vote FOR players? I'd also like to see some feedback on the reasons NOT to vote that I posted above.

Boo, those players are gone, but what are those reasons you speak of?

[MrBuddyLee]

This is just a list of the best reasons NOT to vote for them. Reasons TO vote for them is a separate list, not as simple to assemble and analyze, and probably a very different order.

Also, talking about GC and CDB is way less important than talking about the living players. I basically want to know if there's a compelling reason NOT to vote for anyone that I've missed.

[MrBuddyLee]

And yeah, Boo, "significantly voted scum" means your vote mattered significantly in the building of the wagon relative to other wagons and/or the player likely might not have been lynched without your vote.

[MrBuddyLee]

Because I just woke up and wanted to think through some ways to approach catching scum. It probably would have been better it I'd just cut their names out of that quoted post, but I was bleary-eyed and lazy.

[MrBuddyLee]

My townreads are Bookitty, chamber, Yosarian, and MBL, from the least to most townie.

Let me give you a little context. I just spent 12 days in the desert in the 100 degree heat, hit a deer on the way there, slept in a parking lot while they ordered a radiator from 500 miles away, drove home 1200 miles without air conditioning in the car, arrived home to a 108 degree day and busted AC in the house, and a tree fell on the house in a monsoon while we were gone. I haven't typed or thought logically in two weeks, and my hands and feet are still somewhat numb from the alkali.

Basically, I'm a minor shitshow but glad to be home and back to normal life. And surprised and grateful that I wasn't replaced.

[MrBuddyLee]

None. I was about to make a post about your flip-flopping on Yosarian when I saw chamber's post and responded. I think your Q+ was still in there for some reason.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd be lying if I said annoyance with you played no part in my vote. On the other hand I legitimately think the way you played the refusal to claim and your recent focus on reasons not to vote people looks really bad.

chamber, I debated whether or not to do this, but if you're town, you've gotta know that when you're voting a townie, it will take ALL FIVE other townies to lynch a scumbag now. So if you're town, your vote sucks hard and I would rather have you voting scum.

Here's my record in this game:

14) LoudmouthLee - Mafia Goon - lynched day 1
I made it 9-8 LML over Boo, right after VitR and Glork made it 8-7 and 8-8. I laid down a semi-tough case on LML on lynch eve, 8 hours before voting. I voted Tigris most of the day, and expressed LML as a backup suspect.

7) Shanba - 3 shot Vanilla Cop - killed night 1
I suspected Shanba somewhat.

10) Glork - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 2
I defended Glork aggressively the whole day he was lynched, to the point where he voted me for it.

3) CrashtextDummie - Vanilla Townie - killed night 2
I was uncertain about CTD.

12) Cogito Ergo Sum - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 3
I found CES fairly townish and not a great lynch.

19) Save the Dragons - Mafia Goon - lynched day 4
I went after this guy from dawn D2 to lynch, and tried to get him lynched instead of Glork at deadline D2. Made major cases.

6) DrippingGoofball - Doctor - killed night 4
I found DGB townish D2 D3 D4 but was never 100% certain about her until the doc claim.

20) Yosarian2 - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 5
I found Yos townish til the day he died. My one big screw-up this game so far was flipping on him despite his LML attacks D1.

11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly) - Mason - killed night 5
I had my eye on PJ until LML's lynch and then found him increasingly townish and an increasingly bad player to vote for. Defended him against wagons.

22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris) - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 6
I defended KK/OGML fairly strongly and fought the slot's lynch a few times. I voted Tigris most of D1 but changed my opinion on LML flip.

9) Sotty7 - Mason - killed night 6
I consistently found Sotty town all game and defended her with reasoning when she got run up.

My major mistakes that I'm aware of were Yos and D1 Tigris, and not pushing STD harder D2 D3. (No one was really listening though.) I think overall my record has been credible. If you think my record looks like scum, please explain how, and feel free to leave out anything about today.

[MrBuddyLee]

It's not defensive, it's offensive. I already explained why.. six townies three scum most likely. One dumb townie means only five remain and it takes five votes to lynch right now.

I'll honestly be shocked if two townies vote for me.

@chamber, I'm only saying leave out discussing today if discussing today would be unhealthy for various reasons.

@cam, as for the scumteams idea, I'm not sure that eliminating chamber-VitR and Poro-ABR makes sense. I'd have to add back in all mathcam pairs, which would leave us with a ton of pairs even if I bump Spyrex:

chamber-ABR-cam-Poro-VitR-Boo
10 triplets.

vote: chamber

Tell me how that feels. Are we lynching scum now?

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, scum can always strategically position themselves for or against a lynch based on their knowledge of the flip. Attempts to sway the lynch exist in circumstances where the risk is very high to them, and so, they will stay off the mislynches as much as they can. Your method of scumhunting isn't logical.

What are you talking about here? Please be specific. Are you telling me that picking out players who not only vote for scum but also influence others to vote for scum is a bad way to find townies?

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

The one part I want to question again is Spyrex. I'm doing some re-reading and he doesn't strike me as stridently anti-STD as others have made him out to be.

Really? Please explain.


@Albert, I guess you don't agree with Spyrex when he says it's possible to spot townies making cases on scum:

VitR makes me pinch my eyes but I still hold that initial D1 call was spot on and not in a "scum knowing LML was scum" way.

@chamber, if you don't think I've been looking for townies, you're not reading the game. Read my defenses of Glork and OGML/CDB in particular.

@chamber, do you think cam is scum?

@Boo, you guys aren't getting it. If you consistently make cases that are strong enough to convince other players to make correct decisions, you are more likely to be town. Scum are way more likely to park votes for strategic reasons than they are to make good, correct, insightful cases. We smelled LML's and STD's bullshit cases on each other. They couldn't get the proportionality right because they weren't blind.

[MrBuddyLee]

Albert, please explain why you think Boo is scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Albert, please explain why you think Boo is scum.

POE

Ok, and of all four people you think are scum by POE, why are you voting Bookitty?

[MrBuddyLee]

Porochaz is stubborn and dull, and wouldn't know scum if it sat on his nose, but he might actually be town.

He's voting Boo. He suspects mathcam. He agreed with you on OGML. Why are you criticizing him for having the same suspects you have?

[MrBuddyLee]

mathcam voted Bookitty too easily.

At what point did you give up on reading the game, man?

Your style of play gives me hives.

[MrBuddyLee]

@chamber, do you think cam is scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm up in the air on cam, Boo. He's felt a bit sneaky to me all game, and the best reason I had to NOT vote him was never all that good.. the fact that almost everyone has voted him at one point or another. And that LML seemed to act guilty when being caught FOSing him. Here are some interactions surrounding cam.. still processing these while I try to reach a conclusion.

His votes:
Boo, Albert, Glork(self-pres), DGB, UT, CES, Sotty, Poro, STD, Yos, CDB

He was "away" for the LML deadline.

He spent some time on Poro and ABR over the course of the game. If they're scum, cam's record looks better.

In 2893 on July 18th, he votes Poro while pointing to STD as a backup suspect:

Idunno about STD. I've been feeling pretty townly toward STD all game, but there's this possible {STD, Chamber, OGML, VitR, porochaz} scumteam that niggling at the back of my head. (Admittedly, OGML's posts have been making this feel less likely).

In 2960 on July 19th, switches to STD:

It's a more productive vote than my current one, though I'm still mystified that poro doesn't get any attention.

Albert and DGB had just voted STD in 2956 and 2957. Spy had voted STD in 2952. chamber was already voting STD and had just posted:

Primarily the things that are convincing me to vote for STD are 2118, that CES had a scum read there, the 2 POE sets he's in both pointing to him and matchcam (at least from my pov), and yesterdays hammer.

PJ was leaning scum on DGB, VitR was leaning town on DGB and had mildly defended STD.

cam posted about his dilemma:

I'm constantly fluctuating between people who I think are acting not-particularly-townly and talking myself into thinking their probably town (DGB, porochaz, ABR, chamber), and people who I think are pretty towny looking and talking myself into being paranoid that I'm glossing over them (Yos, STD, GC).

cam's vote made it 5-5 STD-DGB which is somewhat significant. He did it in a post that announced a two week semi-VLA. Scum would do this if they smelled momentum and knew they needed to get on the wagon before missing their second lynch of scum in a row. Town would do this if their #1 suspect had no votes and their #2 suspect was in the running.


STD soft-defended mathcam against PJ's +1/-1 attacks. He asked cam for clarification on his DGB suspicions. In 1361, he attacked cam for casting suspicion on DGB without voting. I asked STD for a direct opinion, and this is what he gave:

I don't have time to post much at the moment, but...

@STD

, what do you think of mathcam?

I gave MafiaSSK a pretty clear townread for the fact that his wagon seemed to unnaturally build. The thought that an LML FOS of the slot while keeping his vote on Tigris recently crept into my mind as "maybe he's trying to keep pressure but not actually vote his partner." I'm not really sure if that's the case, but I have found most of the people who were on the wagon to lean more towards town, and the only stand out that I feel may not be town (PJ) was kind of the most innocent person on that wagon, since he was the first to chime in with the reasoning, and everyone else followed.

I feel like both MafiaSSK and mathcam could have fallen for the trap of "saying things that sound suspicious but in reality are not." For that reason, the wagon MafiaSSK, and the general nature of mathcam's posts I have considered the slot pro-town, but with that recent thought about LML not touching the wagon and with mathcam's recent posts about DGB, I want to reconsider that, so when I get a free moment I'll take a look at his ISO with a neutral mindset and see what I see.

1563 is a huge STD on mathcam post. It's fairly neutral and accurate and concludes:

So the truth is, I still want to lynch DGB. Doesn't look like that is happening.

Unvote

His case on porochaz is lacking. He makes a case on ABR, and explains some of his reads which are nice, but once again there's not really much of a case.

I'm not so sure that the posts suggest an oscillation of opinion towards DGB. It seems like you placed her in the "not sure" category at the beginning of the day. Your exchange with her does not imply you think she's suspicious for her actions, but I'm not sure if that means you're scum and she's town or if you're both scum or if you were just to exacerbated to post "FOS: DGB" or something.

VERDICT: I'd be willing to lynch mathcam.

tl;dr:

Vote: mathcam

Also in light of undo and PJ's claim a vote count would be nice, especially since I think my mathcam vote puts him close to danger.

PJ had just claimed. cam had just voted UT. CTD, CES, Albert, UT and Boo had just voted cam. Glork, Sotty and GC were dabbling on an MBL vote. STD took the opportunity to make an MBL post indicating willingness to lynch me.

vote count: cam(6) Glork(4) MBL, DGB, UT(2)

GC voted Glork to make it 6-5, DGB made it 7-5. Poro voted Glork to make it 7-6. cam made it 7-7. VitR defended cam strongly. Glork defends cam mildly.

At 7-7, Albert unvotes cam to make it 7-6 Glork. GC defends mathcam.

STD posts about cam in 1608. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5975333 You could read the post over and over trying to convince yourself either way.. is STD busing or trying to justify his vote on a townie? This feels a little bit like the latter:

I think the argument against mathcam is not 100% zomg confirmed scum but it's certainly good enough for now.

In 1654 on June 27th, STD unvotes cam and votes DGB, making it cam(6) Glork(5) DGB(1). A REAAAAAAALLY weird and notable move. You could probably WIFOM yourself to death on this one. Was he protecting a scumpartner, or did he see that the two major wagons were townies and decided to jump on a competing wagon so he wouldn't get caught lynching town?

Here's where people are chillin at this point:

Glork (6) -- undo, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam, Green Crayons
CrashTextDummie (1) -- SpyreX
undo (1) -- chamber
mathcam (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Sotty7, Glork
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
DrippingGoofball (2) -- Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly

The Glorkwagon has three townies on it and three unknown (VitR, Poro, cam).
Spy, Albert, Yos, PJ and chamber are in left field. Boo is our last unknown, and is on cam.

cam, Sotty and Poro switch to DGB. Yos and Albert switch to Glork. Now it's 6-6-5. CTD and UT switch off cam, and the cam wagon is effectively over. chamber hops on cam trying to rekindle it.

Despite MBL's analysis leading to him concluding that cam was town, it reinforced my opinion that LML acted differently towards SSK on multiple occasions.

Glork 7, DGB 6, cam 5

Then DGB, chamber and CTD make the Glork lynch inevitable.

Thinking.

[MrBuddyLee]

A little more STD on cam:

I'm under the impression that one of mathcam or DGB is scum, but unlikely both so for now I'd like to keep my vote there. I would support a mathcam lynch if one became relevant. But I will look at CES and Bookitty a little closer just in case, since I don't think your analysis on the mathcam wagon is wrong.

I feel like if DGB is town, the way mathcam handled that was kind of like a cautious scum who knows DGB is town. Actually I could see mathcam's play as trying to distance if they're both scum but it just seems more likely that one is scum and one's not, particularly looking at it from DGB's play with regards to mathcam.

I'd actually be okay with a CES wagon.

...but at the moment I really want to know if I'm truly alone on my "DGB is scum" island.

I'm going back and forth on mathcam, not sure how I feel about him.

It really does seem like STD went out of his way to un-suspect mathcam. He didn't join the wagon of 5 on cam to start out D3, and developed CES as a backup suspect and slowly unwound his suspicions of cam, who he had done a scum-iso on D2.

[MrBuddyLee]

VitR's vote, at first glance, seems to be protective of you, cam. Secondly, it's on someone who I believe has a fair number of supporters (ABR) so it's unlikely to lead to a lynch, which means it's a conservative play by VitR. He doesn't seem to want to be on a lynchwagon today--leaving his vote on you or Poro would have sent the opposite message.

[MrBuddyLee]

Boo, what's the story here?

That said, I have played with DGB enough to lean town on her. I have never been able to read ABR, especially not in the early part of games.

If I absolutely have to, I will vote DGB to avoid no-lynch. I think she's more likely than Glork to flip scum, and I'm not going to be able to read her any better in this game than I have in the past.

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't see the contradiction in these two quotes.

I was more confused by how you said DGB was readable for you but later you said she wasn't.

Regardless, I just finished a Boo reread and I don't think I'm likely to sign on to a lynch of her today.

[MrBuddyLee]

I mean sure, but who has?

[MrBuddyLee]

So let me get this straight. You both think that the other is scum with BooKitty, but neither of you are voting BooKitty? It seems like there's a particularly easy compromise there....

This is a bizarre conclusion to push/draw. If you see two people behaving inconsistently/illogically and you suspect they might be scum, why would you trust their suspicions and encourage a lynch they both seem to support? Isn't that kind of playing into scum's hands?

[MrBuddyLee]

cam, why aren't you pushing a Poro lynch today?

[MrBuddyLee]

cam, aside from the pairing thing, who do you think has been scummiest this game based on behavior?

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: mathcam

[MrBuddyLee]

Weren't you going to make a case on Boo? I read your ABR case.. will read a Boo case if you make one.

[MrBuddyLee]

As scum, it would have been tremendously easy to ride the wave of apathy that was sweeping the game at the start of the day, and let town passively amble their way to a loss.

In your opinion, what was the default lynch had you not participated today?

[MrBuddyLee]

mathcam has managed to evade his own lynch day after day. I believe we won't have many more chances.

I'm not absolutely positive he's scum, but he has been a close call for too long.

The same applies to Poro.. are you pretty sure cam's a better lynch than Poro today?

[MrBuddyLee]

Deadline in 15 hours?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not moving my vote guys. Lynch VitR.

Is this because you think cam is town?

[MrBuddyLee]

so from what i was reading before i replaced in was people suspecing people and someone wanting vig claim and a bunch of other random shit.

someone give me an idea of what else i should be knowing offhand and then who i should be isoing. otherwise ill prob do it on my own time later

[MrBuddyLee]

ika is on the site and posting:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p6205459

[MrBuddyLee]

if you must know, i play about 10 other games at once as well, so my time is divided.

each games has a diffrent priority for me and this one is not a big one on my list, i have been glancing though everything and makeing notes and such but my attention span can only take som much from reading words of words of words.

so you can either let me work at my oen pace, or leave me be

It's deadline in five hours, man. Please give this game like 2 minutes of your attention.

[MrBuddyLee]

talking about other on going games are no-nos.

I can't imagine it's against site policy to say someone is active on the site and selectively choosing not to post in this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

unofficial votecount:
mathcam (3) -- Bookitty, undo, MrBuddyLee
VitaminR (3) -- Albert B. Rampage, mathcam, ika
Bookitty (1) -- Porochaz
MrBuddyLee (1) -- chamber
Albert B. Rampage (1) -- VitaminR

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick said it was in 1.5h when I asked him a little while ago, not .5h

I'm not really happy with either of these lynches atm, I'd much rather mbl, but as I said previously with all else equal I'd lynch mathcam over vitr

I really hope you're scum, because if not, your play today has been disastrous.

[MrBuddyLee]

If you wanted Poro lynched instead of cam, you did absolutely nothing to make it happen. You kept dodging my question about whether or not you found cam scummy.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey Vit. I'm thrilled at the opportunity to work with conftown you. (assuming no counterclaim is coming.) I've admired your play this game.. it's been thoughtful and evidence-based, and flexible. You've been really good at finding, spotting and agreeing with good arguments for why certain players are town. (CES, OGML, mathcam earlier in the day, ) You haven't been as on-the-money spotting scum, other than LML. That's fair though, considering our remaining scum probably haven't been easy to tell apart from lazy town. Note we've been lynching people who use logic (Yos, OGML, cam, Glork) and we're left with a few people who aren't using much or who have been playing wallflower.

ABR's arguments have no consistency. I'd expect that from scum. You found him VERY pro-town earlier and more recently have found him scummy enough to vote for. I'm hard-pressed to find two things pro-town he's done, other than obviously since he's voted for every remaining player, he's been as right as a broken clock--twice a day or so. Meh meh meh.

Poro's been a big bowl of meh, but he did get on the LML train earlyish with some seemingly rehashed arguments. If ABR is scum, Poro definitely tried to make that lynch happen, with evidence presented. Not what you'd expect from scumpartners necessarily.

Boo's turned it off for the most part since she got off the block D1. She occasionally sounded town, but I think everyone did at this point. I do feel like she's steered us away from more town lynches than average, but I need to check that.

ika's a big zero other than the Spyrex on STD time and the slightly townish aspects of the replacement circus. Meh meh meh.

You find chamber 100% town and I'm tempted to trust you on that. I won't say I'll trust you 100%, because I don't want scum intentionally leaving me alive at endgame with chamberscum.

I'm town and you seem to know that. Have a talk with chamber about that if you really are sure he's town.

ika, Boo, Poro, ABR. If you're right about chamber, we're pretty much at "guess three out of four".

Let's discuss the game, unlike yesterday. It was unfortunate that you and I were both gone at different times, but then again I didn't have full confidence to trust you yesterday. When undo posted asking if anyone was opposed to lynching you, I considered speaking up but there were enough little things about your game (much like DGB's game and Yos's game) that were threatening to turn me from pro- to anti-. No way was I going to vote you yesterday.. Poro and cam were way better lynches, imo.

As for my no-claim play yesterday, I was hoping to draw enough attention that scum might NK me instead of the real vig or undo. I even considered claiming vig in hopes that the real vig might be confident enough in my towniness to accept the play, but that was too risky. It (no-claim) was a dicey play because obviously it would possibly look to some like scum angling for a future vig claim. I think it was pretty obvious if you looked carefully enough that I wouldn't have vigged GC, but I was hoping scum might miss that and take me out, leaving two conftown at 7.

[MrBuddyLee]

Oh, and the reason I wanted to discuss good reasons NOT to lynch people yesterday is because we've been lousy as a town finding good reasons to find people scummy, but not terrible at reasons to find people town. I'm hoping that if we can knock the ball out of the park on behalf of one townie, finding really good reasons to put them in the townie column, that by POE we'd have our men.

I understand the general principle of "don't give scum info on who to NK based on suspicions" but I really thought we needed to find ourselves one townie if we're not all that good at finding three remaining scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Is that fear I smell? Or just knuckleheadedness?

Let's discuss this for a bit. Unhand me, you cad.

By the way, Vit, I assume scum has a rolecop or something similar.. have you gotten any vibes from players sniffing you out too early? I had nfc you were the vig, tbh.

[MrBuddyLee]

Attempting to stay positive. We had them dead to rights. Hell, the vig had called out the scumteam and had guaranteed chamber to be town 100%. All we had to do was talk it out.

Thanks, Patrick. Sorry Yos. Sorry, STD and Lee.

It was great to see you all again.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, you realize you were the ONLY TOWN PLAYER TO SUSPECT ME, right? You realized that I voted you because you had tried to suspect me in the end, I hope.

Heh, and I thought OMGUS was a technique to identify scum, not town.

Day 5 or so, I was intentionally oversuspecting you but still trusting all the townies who were so sure you were town. By the end though, I definitely would have considered voting you, but would have deferred to the players who know you better. I think Poro was the way better lynch today though.

MBL has a hard enough time convincing himself to

vote

for anyone, I thought there was no way he would choose to unilaterally kill almost anyone.

I tried a new approach this game.. making cases but letting the rest of town tell me whether they were any good or not. chamber's early recognition of a case as a good reason to vote STD was my main reason for finding him town most of the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yep, and then ignored them in a rabid frenzy about his six minute LML case.