Mafia 104 - Revenge of the Crimson King - Game!

[SpyreX]

Pads,

Mafia Goon

, was brutally murdered N6
Zoraster,

Town Villager,

was shot through the head N6

Deadline: Monday, February 22nd 3:00 PM PST

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

[Socrates]

I hate my life.

Well, Pad's attack on Tar makes me think Tar is not mafia, as I established yesterday.
Reck is town.
Raivann is the Serial killer.

*shrug* I guess that leaves Wickedest.

vote:Wickedest

[Tarhalindur]

1a) Any NK-immune SK can now claim Serial Killer and force the town into Kingmaker.

I'm still not the SK. If xRECKONERx doesn't claim SK, he's almost certainly not SK either. (And if he *is* SK I'd gladly choose him over the Mafia in the Kingmaker endgame.)

1b) Any SK who is NOT NK-immune is now in a Kingmaker position, since he cannot avoid the Mafia's kill tonight barring the Mafia no-killing (any other players are either functionally NK-immune or Mafiosos). Such an SK can either work with Town to kill off the Jupiter Mafia (by voting for one of whichever two of {Raivann, Socrates, wicked} is not the SK), or can work with the Jupiter Mafia to finish the Town (by voting one of {Tarhalindur, xRECKONERx}).

2) Unless Reck claims SK, I'm pretty sure that the dana flip (wtf?) and the zoraster flip lock alignments EXACTLY:

There is one scum faction. Its surviving members are Socrates and Raivann. There is also a serial killer, and his name is wicked. (Multiple factions can be discarded due to RayFrost's track on MonkeyMan N1.)

[Tarhalindur]

Bah, forgot to vote.

Vote: Socrates

Wicked, the game is in your hands. Town or Mafia, your choice.

[Socrates]

Ugh. I saw that comming from a mile away.

I guess the only worry I have at this point is whether or not Tar is mafia. If tar is town, then lynching me is fine cause then the scum can cross kill tonight and town wins! yay! But, as I site here and actually think about potential scum groups, I realize that that is actually very unlikely. I mean, 2-1-1 at this point is unlikely because that would mean the initial setup of the game had a 4 person scum group, which is just too small to make any sense.

If the setup is 2-2-1 right now, and if Raivann is the SK like I think he is, then Tar HAS to be mafia, from my point of view, but it seemed weird to me that Pad's would bus him yesterday. Then again, a wagon on Tar would have been unlikely to go anywhere so he would have been a safe bus (did Pad's ever actually vote Tar?), and Wickedest never supported a Tar lynch though he kept his options open, which is pretty standard play for a scum to act towards their buddy.

Wickedest is going to claim SK in his next post, as per Tar's coaching, and I imagine that he will vote me.

Hey, Tar, why vote me over Raivann?

[Tarhalindur]

Ugh. I saw that comming from a mile away.

I guess the only worry I have at this point is whether or not Tar is mafia. If tar is town, then lynching me is fine cause then the scum can cross kill tonight and town wins! yay! But, as I site here and actually think about potential scum groups, I realize that that is actually very unlikely. I mean, 2-1-1 at this point is unlikely because that would mean the initial setup of the game had a 4 person scum group, which is just too small to make any sense.

If the setup is 2-2-1 right now, and if Raivann is the SK like I think he is, then Tar HAS to be mafia, from my point of view, but it seemed weird to me that Pad's would bus him yesterday. Then again, a wagon on Tar would have been unlikely to go anywhere so he would have been a safe bus (did Pad's ever actually vote Tar?), and Wickedest never supported a Tar lynch though he kept his options open, which is pretty standard play for a scum to act towards their buddy.

Wickedest is going to claim SK in his next post, as per Tar's coaching, and I imagine that he will vote me.

Hey, Tar, why vote me over Raivann?

1) I consider you a stronger player than Raivann and would prefer the better of the two Mafiosos lynched first.

2) You voted Wicked (a player I find VERY unlikely to be Mafia, given how hard he attacked MonkeyMan D1) in your first post of the day without claiming SK... and the reasoning you used logically requires that you are either wrong about Raivann, wrong about me, wrong about Reck, or scum yourself. (1 surviving Mafioso is impossible, IMO.) One of those possibilities can be discarded from my perspective (I know I'm town), the second can be ignored because if Reck is SK we're screwed anyways, and the last two both imply that you're Mafia, albeit to varying degrees (obv reason for calling Raivann SK is to try to sneak your buddy into endgame, you being scum yourself should be obvious). The last two aren't mutually exclusive, either.

3) Remember this Pads post from yesterday?

As unpopular of a sentiment as this might be (atleast with scumTar), I think Socrates' behavior today is highly indicative of him being town.

If we are at:

4 townies
1 SK
3 scum

...which I believe we are, the scum aren't out of the woods with a mislynch today. They need to survive the SK shot. And 'defending' (and I use the term loosely here) Raivann is not an action designed to endear one to the masses, which is what makes me think he's town speaking his mind. I really don't see him saying that unless he's town, or Raivann's buddy.

And, loathe as I am to admit it, I think he may be right about SK Raivann. Granted, that would be the move for Raivann's scumbuddy, too. But I still like my townSocrates read.

Look at all that juicy Socrates defense coming from a known Mafioso. Hmm, I wonder why he would do that? Couldn't possibly be because you're his buddy and he wanted you alive...

4) Right now, Raivann has a slightly better chance of being SK than you. Slightly.

[Socrates]

Mod:

In a bulletproof-mafia endgame, would you end the game in a draw or a mafia win?

[xRECKONERx]

Hold on hold on - does this mean there are TWO scum factions since Pads flipped Mafia Goon and not Jupiter Mafia Goon?

Mod: Was Pads Mafia Goon or Jupiter Mafia Goon?

I will however be voting Wicked or Socrates today.

[SpyreX]

Sorry, he was a

Jupiter Mafia Goon

[xRECKONERx]

5 alive. 1 SK.

3 dead mafiosos?

I need mod clarification on Pads' flip.

[xRECKONERx]

Oh, sniped. Okay, so there's ONE scum faction.

Exalt, Monkeyman, and Pads are the only flips, correct?

[Socrates]

Bolded and reworded for clarity.

Mod:

In a 1 bulletproof townie and 1 mafia endgame, would you end the game in a draw or a mafia win?

I am going to need the mod to answer this before I know how respond to tar.

[Socrates]

Oh, sniped. Okay, so there's ONE scum faction.

Exalt, Monkeyman, and Pads are the only flips, correct?

Yes.

[xRECKONERx]

So I don't get it. There's pretty much no way there's anything but two mafiosos left - which means there was three yesterday. Three mafiosos, two townies, and a SK... why didn't mafia win yesterday?

And can someone explain this "Kingmaker" finish? Is there

no way

for town to win this?

[SpyreX]

In a 1 bulletproof townie and 1 mafia endgame, would you end the game in a draw or a mafia win?

In that scenario the game would be a draw as neither side would have completed their win condition.

[Socrates]

So I don't get it. There's pretty much no way there's anything but two mafiosos left - which means there was three yesterday. Three mafiosos, two townies, and a SK... why didn't mafia win yesterday?

And can someone explain this "Kingmaker" finish? Is there

no way

for town to win this?

Heres how I see it: Yesterday there were 8 people left, 4 townies, 3 mafioso's, and 1 serial killer. Since neither anti-town group had a majority the game continues. We lynched Dana: 3 townies, 3 mafioso's, 1 serial killer. the serial killer still needs to be delt with to ensure a scum victory. The Serial killer hits a scumbag with his night kill, and the scum shoot Zoraster. Now we sit at 2-2-1, with two townies (insert obligatory insistance that I am one of them here), two scumbags, and the serial killer.

We are obviously going to lynch 1 of me/Wickedest/Raivann today.

If we lynch a mafioso (wickedest), either both the mafia (Tar) and the SK (Raivann) shoot me, forcing a 1-1-1 end game, which will end in a draw for all three parties or just the mafia and the town if the SK isn't NK immune, OR the Raivann shoots me (I am the only non NK immune person he can target) and Tar shoots Raivann, which would lead directly to the 1 mafia - you end game that leads to a draw.

(BTW, Raivann, help to town out tonight by no-killing tonight if we lynch mafia)

If we lynch a townie (me), then Raivann shoots wickedest tonight and Tar/Wickedest shoot Raivann, we get the same 1 mafia- you end game.

If we lynch the SK (Raivann), then the scum kill me and win the game that night.

So yea, with Spyrex's clarification, this game is going to end in a draw so long as we don't lynch the SK.

[Socrates]

We can also, if you are willing, Reck, lynch Tarscum and hope for a scum cross kill. Thats another viable way to win the game.

[Socrates]

By the way, I am REALLY looking forward to Wickedest's next post.

Tar might not realize this, but he just exposed himself as mafia by the scum's gambit to claim SK.

I will explain why after we see whether or not Wickedest actually does claim SK.

[xRECKONERx]

My biggest problem is this - if Tar is scum prison guard, he can continue self-protecting. The only way to deal with him is to lynch him.

2-2-1. Options (someone tell me if I missed anything):

We lynch scum today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1SK to 1town, SK win.
We lynch scum today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch town today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1scum to 1SK, draw.
We lynch town today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch SK today. Scum shoot town overnight. 2scum to 1 town, scum win.

So basically, there is literally NO way for town to win this, as far as I can see. Fucking a. So would we rather risk a draw or what. Fucking shit. I can't decide who the remaining scums are.

[xRECKONERx]

Explain how Tar exposed himself as mafia. Now.

[Socrates]

My biggest problem is this - if Tar is scum prison guard, he can continue self-protecting. The only way to deal with him is to lynch him.

2-2-1. Options (someone tell me if I missed anything):

We lynch scum today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1SK to 1town, SK win.
We lynch scum today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch town today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1scum to 1SK, draw.
We lynch town today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch SK today. Scum shoot town overnight. 2scum to 1 town, scum win.

So basically, there is literally NO way for town to win this, as far as I can see. Fucking a. So would we rather risk a draw or what. Fucking shit. I can't decide who the remaining scums are.

I thought you were bulletproof?

We lynch tar, and the last mafia and the SK cross kill, and then the town wins.

Now that I have thought about it some more, I truely do think that that is the best plan for victory.

unvote, vote:Tar

[Socrates]

Explain how Tar exposed himself as mafia. Now.

I tipped my hand, and I shouldn't have said anything and waited for Wickedest to post, but I got too excited.

If Wickedest actually tried to claim SK and then voted me, that would prove that he is not truely the SK, because the SK MUST try to lynch Tar today. This is because the ONLY POSSIBLE way for the SK to win (or even draw the game), is by Tar being mafia and getting lynched, he shoots the remaining scumbag while that scumbag misses him and then endgame you for the draw. Every other scenario (that I can think of) leads to an out and out loss for him.

The reason that this would have exposed Tar is the fact that he was so transparently setting up the fake SK claim for his buddy, and it would be even more obvious once I showed why Wickedest was mafia.

But alas, I spoke too early.

[xRECKONERx]

Sooo since Wickedest didn't claim SK, what does that mean about Tar since you can't prove he was setting up a claim for his scum buddy?

For reference, I'm listing all possible scum teams from most likely to least likely.

Tarhalindur/Wicked
Tarhalindur/Raivann
Raivann/Socrates
Wicked/Raivann
Wicked/Socrates
Tarhalindur/Socrates

I think Tarhalindur is our best lynch for today. But I'd like everyone to weigh in on this first. Speculating about the SK probably won't do much good unless he/she comes out and claims outright, so I'd rather look at scum connections.

Tar has been playing hard not to get lynched, because he knows that's the ONLY way he can lose since he can self-protect IMO.

[xRECKONERx]

In fact, I'm so sure Tarhalindur is scum, I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Tarhalindur

. Scum-Town Prison Guard team is totally a Seraphmod thing to do, and there's no way there would be TWO townies left who are both essentially NK-immune, as that makes it an impossible win for the SK and scum.

[Raivann]

Vote:Tarhalindur