Mafia 106 - Killers Mafia II - Over Already?

[BloodCovenent]

i'm down with a Bogre lynch

Unvote;
Vote: Bogre.

[Sando]

Funnily enough, Rhinox's plan almost guarantees a win for a 2 scum team of him and BC.

If we lynch Bogre, there's a 33% chance that noone dies to me and Cades, and 66% chance that 2 die. If scum decide to kill a CPR doc, there's both Rhinox and BC against 2 town, town loses.

BC, you still haven't answered what you think happens if you target SKs.

[BloodCovenent]

Sorry, i thought I did. The mod was vague, but i only die if I protect scum. That's all it said. I would presume an SK would mean that too. However, i doubt we have an Sk. We had 1 kill the first night, and 3 kills the second night. if there was an SK, there would have been two and four kills respectively.

sorry sando, i'm not scum. I would be willing to lynch either Bogre or Kyle, Tubby also needs more activity.

[Sando]

Ok, I'm not sold on why a RB would target BC. He can't get a 'guilty' because if he does, he dies, so there's no real risk of him outing a scum. The only danger is of him clearing another player, which seems to have happened. Why not just kill him? On the other hand you have 2 claimed CPR docs, 1 of whom killed with no knowledge on N0 (indicating they'll kill again) and the other who has stated he intends to kill.

At this point, there are 11 alive, with 2 CPR docs believing each other, a weak doc unlikely to be targetted, and someone the weak doc confirmed, also unlikely to be targetted. Add to this Elli who pushed the lynch on URoE-scum, again unlikely to be targetted. That's 5 people unlikely to be targetted, if there's 2 scum alive in the remaining 6, that's not looking like good odds. If there were a role-blocker outside of those 5, I'd expect the RB on one of the CPR docs.

Bottom line, I don't think a RBer exists in the list of Tubby, Kyle, Bogre, Fishy.

[Rhinox]

I went through this exercise in my head

twice

dammit now 3 times already and I've pretty much decided that trying to figure out why so and so was or wasn't killed is a losing battle. BC was likely roleblocked because the role likely exists, and nobody else has claimed to be RBed.

If the remaining scum is not a powerrole, what role do you expect him to have? goon? something else?

We can discuss whatiffs all we want. Basically, all it has shown is that there is currently no single strategy that guarentees a town win unless you are willing to give likely town players the benefit of the doubt. I think lynching bogre will end the game, and I've already broken my own convention by speculating about what we should do if bogre is not scum.

If you're so worried about a worst case scenario (mislynch + 2 vig misses + scum killing town + 2 alligned (key word there) scum remaining) then maybe one of the cprdocs doesn't kill tonight to avoid that EXTREMELY unlikely scenario. Consider this: 2 goons are dead... does it seem reasonable that a scum team of 2 would contain 2 vanilla roles? if there are 2 scum remaining, they most definately not on the same faction. So that worst case scenario situation at worst puts us in a 2-1-1. You also can't forget about the absence of any scum kill N0. For there to be 2 opposite-factioned scum remaining, either that makes you an SK, or there has to be a RB. IMO, this automatically rules out a scum team of 2 alligned mafia remaining, unless they were a group of 4 to begin with. Makes no sense to give 1 scum team 2 goons and the other PRs. and IMO, a 13p game night start is not going to have a team of 4. That would mean theoretically given the rest of the setup, we could have woken up D1 with 4 dead townies and we'd have automatically been in LyLo. all this making sense?

Oh, and for the record, don't give ellibereth too much credit for the URoE lynch. I convinced ellibereth to hop onto URoE, and the lynch was about to derail and shift to ellibereth until I called you all a bunch of noobs But it don't mean shit if we don't pull this win out.

[Bogre]

No bogre, in the first one, if cades is scum and sando is town, i would still be alive, and i would have protected sando.

Supposed to read: If Sando is scum then BC dies and Cades kills Sando.

[cades]

Well I doubt there is a role blocker cause neither I or Sando have been blocked and you would think we would be blocked.

although Blood could of been, no one knew he was weak doc until day 1.
so that means that N0 Rhinox was targeted and Blood stoped him.
They couldn't of blocked Blood cause if they did Rhinox would of died.

And they had to of targeted him cause no one died other than Sando's kill.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Bogre (4) - kyle99, fishythefish, rhinox, BloodCovenent
kyle99 (2) - Bogre, cades

Not Voting (2) - tubby216, sando

With eight alive it takes five to lynch

[Rhinox]

Bogre is L-1... claim nao plz

[cades]

Wait, everyone wait.

What are we doing at night.
Take back your vote so we know what we are doing.

If we are doing my plan I guess I'll go for kyle at night.
Sando go for tubby

(And I don't see a point and not telling each other who we are voting then we may vote the same people, and that would be stupid)

[Bogre]

Vanilla.

[BloodCovenent]

hmmmm.....

[Fishythefish]

Having failed to derail a lynch with a cop claim, a vanilla claim makes more sense for scum than usual. Bogre urgently needs hammering.

cades, shoot kyle tonight, as you said. Everyone else, work around that.

[Bogre]

You should probably lynch kyle first. Since I imagine I'm going to be dead either way (given one of the CPR docs will kill me), which I think is somewhat sensible a way to play towards the endgame, I try to show you why you shouldn't lynch me.

First- Everyone needs to realize that BC is not cleared, and I highly recommend my strategy of clearing him and a CPR doc.

Fishy- have you ever brought up a case against me? You seem to just be stating suspicion based on gut. What makes kyle town in your eyes?

Secondly, you really wanted my claim, and secondly you're directing the vig, not necessarily a smart thing to do. BC could easily be a scum doctor fakeclaiming weak doctor.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy- have you ever brought up a case against me? You seem to just be stating suspicion based on gut. What makes kyle town in your eyes?

Secondly, you really wanted my claim, and secondly you're directing the vig, not necessarily a smart thing to do. BC could easily be a scum doctor fakeclaiming weak doctor.

Yes. Read my catchup post on d1, which is the first post of any length in my iso. kyle being protown is pretty much gut - his early tunnelling on cades looked genuine to me.

What's your point about me wanting your claim? I want you dead, and a claim is a good step in that direction. The (CPR) vig is announcing his plans himself - and he can always change his mind about that (EDIT: Actually, Rhinox makes a good point about this. With a RB fairly likely, Cades should change his vig plans to something more unpredictable).

[Bogre]

Also:

Like I've stated, the statistics weren't my reasons for voting Parama.

[tubby216]

meh i have seen enough

vote bogre

[Rhinox]

well its done. Bogre, it makes absolutely no sense for BC to be a scum doctor, clearing 2 townies, if there is only 1 scum remaining. If there are 2 mafia remaining out of a group of 4 originally, it becomes slightly possible, but I've already explained why a 4person mafia is very unlikely.

[Rhinox]

tubby, why did you hammer? last we heard from you, you were still trying to figure out bogre, and said something about posting example quotes. What did you see in bogre that made you decide to hammer?

[LlamaFluff]

Bogre is dead. Thats unfortunate.

Bogre (5) - kyle99, fishythefish, rhinox, BloodCovenent, tubby216
kyle99 (2) - Bogre, cades

Not Voting (1) - sando

Bogre

- Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day Two

Night actions due by Tuesday the 12th, 2PM PST

[LlamaFluff]

More bodies... yay?

BloodCovenent

- Weak Doctor - Died N2

cades

- CRP Doctor - Died N2

kyle99

- Mafia Goon - Died N2

Something has happened

Pikachu is evolving!

A win condition has been achieved!

Well... I say (remember I am in this as your mayor) looks like its over. I will let you know right now that...

The Mafia B Roleblockers sando and fishythefish win

!!

Nah just kidding, it would be funny if that was true though

Town Wins
Tubby216 - Vanilla Town - Survives
Fishythefish - Vanilla Town - Survives
Rhinox - Vanilla Town - Survives
sando - CPR Doctor - Survives

Actions in an hour or so

[Bogre]

*chuckle*

Told you guys we should've lynched kyle, but go toooowwwn! ---->

I was wrong about Parama at the beginning, though.

[Sando]

Nice game town I killed BC if that isn't obvious Not because I honestly thought he was scum, but him being scum seemed about the only way we could lose, so I killed him.

[kyle99]

Aww, that sucks. Scum played bad, town played good. Good call on. Protecting rhinox N0, that's who we tried to kill. Having 2/3 scum dead on day 2 sucked. I do think that the town was slightly overpowered, cpr doc is a really good role, and having 2 was overpowerd imo.

[Sando]

Yeah my kill on Dana really through the game open for town. This was poor play from Dana, you cannot lurk in a game with basically 2 vigs.

Not killing a CPR doc though on N1, that was a very odd and in hindsight bad choice, how come?