New York 152 Niiightless Game Over!

[petapan]

i think your going to find that most things are fundamentally nulltells and taht everything is circumstantial

teh only tell i've heard of that tends to be strongly reliable is the amished tell and even then it becomes irrelevant if you are aware of it (i think this game i even said i didn't really read bbmolla's posts)

[Psyche]

My failure with the stats included 1) trying to use past data to predict future behavior, 2) giving more weight to this data than merited, 3) using the data blindly and with confirmation bias (Pine never actually said anyone was flailing until after I had died, and he accused scum, which the data suggests might be called town tell), and 4) not acting with a sufficient degree of theoretical background.

I do need a better way of scientifically investigating mafia. I'll try focusing on doing case studies of strategies that worked and turn them into models instead of searching for correlations. Correlation searching is both too tedious and unproductive, since they're never strong or predictive enough to make a difference in my scum hunting.

Or maybe instead of searching for strategies, I'll look for 'scumhunting virtues', characteristics of protown play...
The work will be more theoretical and less quantitative, but until I get a good theoretical handle, I don't think I'll be able to organize any quantitative data intelligently...



A lot of you guys' complaints about it was pretty bullish, though. How can you complain about sample size when the data you use to make your own scumhunting decisions is MUCH more sparse? That seems like setting a double standard that I can't take seriously. Everyone gets a sense of what makes someone scummy from their knowledge of past games. What makes my attempt to do so regarding flailing somehow less meaningful?

[Psyche]

Even though you were scum, you found a lot of scum using a rather systematic method. I totally need to see if I can figure that thing out...

[TeChNoWC]

@crypto: UN didn't get me lynched anyway, I did (plus a bit of help from Kairyuu).

I honestly don't think I would have helped much endgame. I didn't read the thread militantly but even on my death, most of my scumreads were townies (I was starting to suspect mogri was town, but I would have pushed through probs 2-3 townie mislynches and then been lynched for it myself). I pushed hard for red's lynch and was right about that, but little else. I thought CF was the last scum. I probably would have attempted to get people to look at peta more critically (he seemed to get waaaay too much trust), but I probs would have followed him like the others nonetheless.

In hindsight it was probably good I got lynched when I did because I would have most likely led town down a trail of destruction. Take BK for example. I never suspected him as maf for a second, yet his voting was obviscum I just never picked up on it. I also thought both UN and Hiraki were town. I thought Pine was scum until the very end where he had good town play (I thought anyway). CF seemed keen to survive in lylo and his comment about lylo early on made me think he knew about the 4 man scum teams (rather than three) earlier than town was meant to.

I'm sure if I was playing and actively reading I might have had slightly better reads than this had I survived, but they still probably would have been too far off the mark and I would have destroyed town and myself way before lylo, so I am kind of glad I died when I did. I'm not sure why Kairyuu didn't try and support me and leave me around to get through mislynches, particularly when I don't think whiteknighting Mogri would have given him towncred seeing as he tried to chop up a towny with no flak (reads out of his arse should have screamed scum really). Scum could have benefited from keeping me around but maybe he thought I would be dangerous later on, idk. I probs would have got inte lynched earlier than he did but that would have been probs my only saving grace.

[Pine]

Eh. I tend to be a late bloomer. The more information and flips I have, the better I get. I know, so does everyone, but I'm usually utter rubbish in the early game, and right on the ball in late game.

[Slaxx]

good game peta

very very vaguely skimmed this when i was bored because of the setup/playerlist

[Matias]

good game peta

very very vaguely skimmed this when i was bored because of the setup/playerlist

Were you able to tell that I was scum right away?

I'd be disappointed if you didn't

[Slaxx]

Haha I didn't start until after you flipped, confirmation bias etc

I started literally right after the string of red punches which I Think ended with you (on phone and lazy)

[Matias]

You're my best friend when I'm town, and my worst enemy when I'm scum

[Slaxx]

Except during murder in the desert

[Duplicity]

Peta played a very strong game.

Towns biggest mistake was the Tech lynch and probably the early vote in 3 way though I think Peta had the game locked up at that point anyway.

[crypto]

haha i just read the dead chat theamatuer is such a dumb little twat

[Blonde Doctor]

I would just like to point out that I forgot who my scum partners were and legitimately thought Matias was scummy for telling someone to "see for themselves." It was not an opportunistic whatever he called it, by any means. I was quite surprised when I found out he was my partner and tried to turn around my accusations on me, when I was just being honest. Are you always that abrasive? Do you always think you can bus your partners and carry the game better than them?

Though I have to admit, his reactions to my accusations were worse than what I originally thought was scummy. Surprising that he made it that far after that.

Also, I do not understand how people can stand a game this long...

[inte]

i thought it was sorta average

[Matias]

I would just like to point out that I forgot who my scum partners were and legitimately thought Matias was scummy for telling someone to "see for themselves." It was not an opportunistic whatever he called it, by any means. I was quite surprised when I found out he was my partner and tried to turn around my accusations on me, when I was just being honest. Are you always that abrasive? Do you always think you can bus your partners and carry the game better than them?

Though I have to admit, his reactions to my accusations were worse than what I originally thought was scummy. Surprising that he made it that far after that.

Also, I do not understand how people can stand a game this long...

oh

seeing as how that was the only decent move made from our team all game, this kinda shows why we lost

[StrangerCoug]

The end!