NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER

[AxleGreaser]

What do I have to do to get reinoe lynched?

Same thing you had to do before you needlessly claimed before town had good reason too.

[beastcharizard]

Ok, so what you are saying is you would rather take out the faction that HAS to shoot for the other team rather than the faction with more people? How does that make any sense in your scenario? You are saying you want to take out someone who is trying to help the town by shooting scum.

Also, I have a guilty. There isn't anything more convincing for a lynch in my book.

[reinoe]

Ren, what do you think of GM *clearly* calling Beast scum and not hammering thus artificially prolonging the game?

The same thing I think after thor spent all that time interrogating Beast, calling his claim shit but saying he would vote me but didn't until beast's awful claim became even worse. The same thing I think about you calling thor scum all the live long day and even advocating his policy lynch but not hammering. It's weird and aggravating but that's all it is, weird and aggravating. Plus she did this in the first game I played on mafia scum when we were in lylo only she did it for nearly 12 days instead of what...24 hrs?

I called for a day extension which also artificially prolonged the game.

[beastcharizard]

Why did you ask for said extension?

[reinoe]

Why did you ask for said extension?

Because Nero, Josh, Flubber, TSO, and Flubber had been pretty much MIA the entire time and the Thanksgiving weekend seemed to be a logical explanation.

[Nero Cain]

If the game is MB then a town cop is threat to both factions

which

wastes the shot they could be eliminating the other faction with by shooting the cop

?

bolded #1 if this is MB and Beast is a cop he is only a threat to the mafia faction. How is he a threat to the WWs?
bolded @2 you are arguing that this is MB and that Beast could be scum. You are also arguing that scum would shoot at each other. You are now arguing that a shot on him would be a waste. This is very much a disconnect.

So the chnaces if the game is SB are pretty high of getting shot eventually. My point was however, it is not a suicide play by beast.

I think the chances of scum shooting a threat in mb are just the same as in singleball. I think that in MB a scum team would NOT wabt to kill all of the other team 'cause like...then we'd be focused on just that team.

[beastcharizard]

Nero the Hero is at it again.

That is my new name for Nero.

[Nero Cain]

You do realize how paranoid that makes me? But I'm getting more used to it.

[Nero Cain]

Ren, what do you think of GM *clearly* calling Beast scum and not hammering thus artificially prolonging the game?

The same thing I think after thor spent all that time interrogating Beast, calling his claim shit but saying he would vote me but didn't until beast's awful claim became even worse. The same thing I think about you calling thor scum all the live long day and even advocating his policy lynch but not hammering. It's weird and aggravating but that's all it is, weird and aggravating. Plus she did this in the first game I played on mafia scum when we were in lylo only she did it for nearly 12 days instead of what...24 hrs?

I called for a day extension which also artificially prolonged the game.

So I was "scummy" for this but somehow Thor and GM aren't. I see selective scumhunting.

I also think there's a HUGE difference in what I did and what GM is doing.

[reinoe]

Ren, what do you think of GM *clearly* calling Beast scum and not hammering thus artificially prolonging the game?

The same thing I think after thor spent all that time interrogating Beast, calling his claim shit but saying he would vote me but didn't until beast's awful claim became even worse. The same thing I think about you calling thor scum all the live long day and even advocating his policy lynch but not hammering. It's weird and aggravating but that's all it is, weird and aggravating. Plus she did this in the first game I played on mafia scum when we were in lylo only she did it for nearly 12 days instead of what...24 hrs?

I called for a day extension which also artificially prolonged the game.

So I was "scummy" for this but somehow Thor and GM aren't. I see selective scumhunting.

I also think there's a HUGE difference in what I did and what GM is doing.

If you recalled I initially said

"The difference is trying to determine if there's scum motivation or town motivation. The stuff coming from Nero feels townie."

Then this happened..."

"1)You scum read thor
2)you think thor is PL worthy
3)you think JK is a common scum RB claim.

4)You don't hammer thor? WTF is this?"

which ended in...

"blegh maybe I was just pissed that Nero didn't hammer."

So I think I've been pretty consistent in finding that behavior aggravating and weird. I don't think there's a huge difference at all.

[Nero Cain]

Were you pissed at the players that unvoted Thor?

[reinoe]

Were you pissed at the players that unvoted Thor?

No just you.

[Nero Cain]

Seems like a case of displaced anger.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok, so what you are saying is you would rather take out the faction that HAS to shoot for the other team rather than the faction with more people?

(1)

How does that make any sense in your scenario?

(3)

You are saying you want to take out someone who is trying to help the town by shooting scum.

(2)

Also, I have a guilty. There isn't anything more convincing for a lynch in my book.

(2)

yes from your point of view there is nothing more convincing and i don't expect you to agree to lynch yourself over your claimed red check.

I however have your claimed red check and two very viable explanations for it.(+ some less so) (one them is you are WW)(one is you are town and an even night cop)

(3)

nope I couldn't possibly be saying that.

(1)

If I thought Beast and Reinoe were exactly equally likely to flip scum, id still lynch the one I thought was from the short stacked (currently prob 3:2) team. I have never played multiball nor read enough mutliball(any?) scum QTs to be sure but I think one team being at 3:1, gives lots of reason for the 1 team to shoot at the 3. because the one team is hooting at them the 3 team also has incentive to end that. From the 3 scum teams point of view yes townies are dangerous as they have votes and are trying to lynch them. The 1 one left in the other team is no effectively a known vig(as he has one nk and is gunning for them)

I prefer that to the situation with 2v2 as I believe it is possible the scum teams may not be quite as likely to shoot at one another in that case.

[beastcharizard]

And if this isn't multiball?

Also, why is my prime-number cop not part of your explanations? I mean it is my actual role so you should put it in your explanation.

I am at the point where I would give something up for reinoe to get lynched. The only thing they have really said is that if they are lynched it is going to be a study of what all town takes as a fake claim. The thing is, that Reinoe is doing the opposite and seeing how much bs scum can spew in order to get out of a cop guilty lynch.

I have never heard of someone lynching the cop to find out if they guilty is true rather than lynching the guilty to see if the cop is true. How often do people fake guilties?

[reinoe]

And if this isn't multiball?

I thought you had a cop guilty on me? Are you starting to forget your own fake-claim.

I have never heard of someone lynching the cop to find out if they guilty is true rather than lynching the guilty to see if the cop is true.

Which explains why you didn't expect things to backfire.

How often do people fake guilties?

Besides yourself, we've got two people in this game who have faked results on other players and a third player who was on the receiving end. That's just off the top of my head.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok, so what you are saying is you would rather take out the faction that HAS to shoot for the other team rather than the faction with more people?

(1)

How does that make any sense in your scenario?

(3)

You are saying you want to take out someone who is trying to help the town by shooting scum.

(2)

Also, I have a guilty. There isn't anything more convincing for a lynch in my book.

(2)

yes from your point of view there is nothing more convincing and i don't expect you to agree to lynch yourself over your claimed red check.

I however have your claimed red check and two very viable explanations for it.(+ some less so) (one them is you are WW)(one is you are town and an even night cop)

(3)

nope I couldn't possibly be saying that.

(1)

If I thought Beast and Reinoe were exactly equally likely to flip scum, id still lynch the one I thought was from the short stacked (currently prob 3:2) team. I have never played multiball nor read enough mutliball(any?) scum QTs to be sure but I think one team being at 3:1, gives lots of reason for the 1 team to shoot at the 3. because the one team is hooting at them the 3 team also has incentive to end that. From the 3 scum teams point of view yes townies are dangerous as they have votes and are trying to lynch them. The 1 one left in the other team is no effectively a known vig(as he has one nk and is gunning for them)

I prefer that to the situation with 2v2 as I believe it is possible the scum teams may not be quite as likely to shoot at one another in that case.

And if this isn't multiball?

Well that is possibility that only became apparent when you changed your mind about what your claimed PM meant. Originally and as recently as 5024 you were convinced that the game was MB based on your reading of your claimed role. At that time i was making the argument that you are scum and WW, trying to lynch a mafia (and hence MB). Since then, conveniently, you have found out no your Pm does not mean that.
I am inclined to give later claims that you now have re understood your PM zero weight. Further I could in fact somewhat scum read you as town are likely to know what their Pm means and scum making it up are more likely to make mistakes and inconsistencies.

If it is not multiball, then most either you are scum with role cop check on Reinoe, or Reinoe is scum (WW)(as its SB). Note it is also plausible but unlikely suicide play for you just to be scum faking a red check (for no good reason/scum can be bad too) and for Reinoe to be town who is not cop, but new the check was fake and thus (Reinoe being Reinoe) fake claimed something, and the something was to mirror your fake claim.

Also, why is my prime-number cop not part of your explanations? I mean it is my actual role so you should put it in your explanation.

Ok I will add the explanation. Oh lordy. LOL. Just fucking LOL. There does that help? Please 5286 for my most recent previous statement about changing to a prime number cop claim.
Exactly why did you change to out that you are prime number cop and have another check tomorrow. In what conceivable way does it actually add to the case against Reinoe. Your conclusion in

Now can we PLEASE lynch Reinoe

has exactly no

indicated

logical relationship to why on the basis of your claim we could now lynch Reinoe. I can make one, but you didnt, one good reason for you not make tyhe indication explicit is self aware meta is BS, you upping your claim so you are a bigger target to scum(if they even believe you) is like self aware meat no bigger reason to believe your claim.

I am at the point where I would give something up for reinoe to get lynched. The only thing they have really said is that if they are lynched it is going to be a study of what all town takes as a fake claim. The thing is, that Reinoe is doing the opposite and seeing how much bs scum can spew in order to get out of a cop guilty lynch.

I have never heard of someone lynching the cop to find out if they guilty is true rather than lynching the guilty to see if the cop is true. How often do people fake guilties?

Welcome to Axle world.
I imagine you never have heard of it.
I imagine you have only played little multiball.(Ive played none)(However I do know 3 sided games have very different game theory math to two sided ones)
I have seen merely unbelievable claims lynched in SB. (actually we will stop there I dont want to talk about the worst/junk plays(bad claims) I have seen)
Lastly that you have never heard of it is why any defense that Oh beast cant have done that are BS, claimg cop and lynching someone from the other team will have looked like genius... until it unravelled, especially if as beast initially claimed (and i already thought more likely than not) the game is MB.

and finally I really would prefer to lynch another WW over a maf today.

however it is time

UNVOTE: Beast

Note I really might vote him again, but I reckon I have as much good info as i can reasonably expect to get. Time to re-evaluate the day from scratch.

[Nero Cain]

and finally I really would prefer to lynch another WW over a maf today

why?

[AxleGreaser]

If the game is MB then a town cop is threat to both factions

which

wastes the shot they could be eliminating the other faction with by shooting the cop

?

(1)

bolded #1 if this is MB and Beast is a cop he is only a threat to the mafia faction. How is he a threat to the WWs?

(2)

bolded @2 you are arguing that this is MB and that Beast could be scum. You are also arguing that scum would shoot at each other. You are now arguing that a shot on him would be a waste. This is very much a disconnect.

So the chnaces if the game is SB are pretty high of getting shot eventually. My point was however, it is not a suicide play by beast.

(3)

I think the chances of scum shooting a threat in mb are just the same as in singleball. I think that in MB a scum team would NOT wabt to kill all of the other team 'cause like...then we'd be focused on just that team.

(1)

because I read his posts... did you?
The most recent way he claims his role works is like this.

He said I got guilties on anti-town entities. Mafia or WW or SK or anything like that was not specified. I do know I get a false guilty on Millers though. Doubt that helps.

and he implicitly agreed with this incorrect poiint

Nero the Hero is at it again.

WHich tells me Beast is unsure how his role works .... again. Or doesnt care just so long as Nero is championing his cause with BS or not.

(2)

I am unsure if I mentioned it every time, but I did in at least some of my repetitions of my explanation.... Here we go for the umpteenth time.

Question

: Is beast play clearly suicide for scum hence his claim has the normal validity of cop claims with red checks. Such claims get default validity

because

they are suicide plays and scum typically need better than 1for1 trades. (I think that is all the details of the actual question this time)

Answer

: No if this game is MB, and beast is WW, and he claims a red check on guy he thinks is mafia. Then when the mafia flips he looks by standard play (in SB) to be conf town. If he gets away with that and no one notices then after a maf!Reinoe lynch, then town will likely think he(beast) is town. Maf will (may) also think he(beast) is a real town cop who wont have another check until night 4. In that situation Maf who will be shooting for WW somewhat (at 2v2) may purposefully shoot around Beast because they assume he is cop and not the real threat that WW are.
and worst case, if once the maf!Reinoe lynch goes through is Maff shoot Beast and its 2v1 and WW have a shot at hitting maf the same night.

Conclusion

If its MB, as Beast and Reinoe both initially claimed... then it is nothing like suicide play for a scum play to fake a Cop guilty on someone they believe is from the other faction.

No disconnect at all. True it is NOT mafia standard play 101 reasoning, it a bit more advanced than that, but there is no disconnect. If you still think there is, the re-read the above very slowly several times.

(3)

At the end of the game for scum to win they really want to become a voting majority. At 3v1 the short stacked scum team knwo their only chance of victory is to kill all the other team before they simply lynch him, with thread presence or actual majority. The one man WW!scum would have to have rocks in his head not to be shooting at the mafias. As he is shooting at them, he is effectively known to exist (unlimited shot)vig, The mafia team has to have rocks in their heads not to be shooting at him, and merely hoping the WW's shots actually hit Town.
This may even still theoretically apply at this point with 2v2 but I don't know the scum will see what they really ought be doing to maximize their scum teams chances of winning(aka eliminate the rival who has both a gun and a vote).

But hey I agree in MB the scum teams dont want the other one ended too early, as the game gets longer inf the nks go down too soon. However at 3v1 I pretty sure its rocks in the head or shoot at the other guys time.

One exception, but perhaps its me being paranoid, If I am right about WW Maf and MB and stuff.. there may well be scums that want me dead.... a lot. If so LOL me.

[AxleGreaser]

and finally I really would prefer to lynch another WW over a maf today

why?

see previous post that was ninja's (it took a while to write it carefully)

[Shiro]

unvote:Beast

GM here take my spot on the wagon so when it comes to it and axl resees how BS beast is acting and votes him again someone is here with enough will to hammer him.

[Shiro]

Although gm I cannot see town intend from your actions. WTF u not only scum read beast but u said no matter fake or not u think lynching him first is better yet when it came to it twice u didnt pull the trigger.

Can u tell me why ?

[Shiro]

Cause honestly ? Your unwillingness to hammer him is the only thing so far in the game that made me doubt my scum read on him.

[Izariael]

So... here's a thought I've been chewing on. What if we lynched

neither beast nor reinoe

? I'm beginning to think that scum benefits more from this lynch pool than town does. There's no way they are aligned together, which means that one or both of them is scum, so leaving them both alive today keeps more possibility of cross-kills tonight, which is really something that town needs right now. I think we've reached a critical point of the game where scum (certainly the wolves after losing a member) are going to need to target each other tonight.

VOTE: Slandaar

Here's my suggestion for an alternative.

[AxleGreaser]

So... here's a thought I've been chewing on. What if we lynched

neither beast nor reinoe

? I'm beginning to think that scum benefits more from this lynch pool than town does. There's no way they are aligned together, which means that one or both of them is scum, so leaving them both alive today keeps more possibility of cross-kills tonight, which is really something that town needs right now. I think we've reached a critical point of the game where scum (certainly the wolves after losing a member) are going to need to target each other tonight.

VOTE: Slandaar

Here's my suggestion for an alternative.

what.
You think seeing as we quite possibly found two scum we should kill neither, but lynch Slaandar.. because hes scum and as killing reinoe or beast scum is bad, because crosskills we ought lynch some other guy who only might be scum?

Now I know I am paying attention to cross kill potential, and given a choice, would prefer to lynch the guy I think is WW,
but err

wat?

RVS is way over?