NY 198: Nexus is Now a New Normal Mafia (Game Over)

[Transcend]

umm Trans if that is the game I am thinking of its because you did a great job of pulling the wool over my eyes and the eyes of a few others and got me to vote titus

Sure is

[drealmerz7]

ohyeah

I meant to tell you all I claimed in my first post

was wondering if anyone caught it but I doubted it

[mhsmith0]

Town DEFINITELY didn't win just due to setup here.

That said, I tend to agree setup was town-sided. The comment was made that town get on extra ML in exchange for scum getting power.

But consider the 10v3 version of this:
Neapolitan
Deputy (backup neo?)
Shitty JOAT
Doctor
Even rb
Macho ic
4 vt

Vs
Goon
Goon
Encryptor

That's a majority of town roles being pr and none were trash roles like neighbor, bodyguard, 1-shot anything (other than bp) or miller.

Normally towns get wrecked in "5 town pr" 10v3 games, but from what I can tell, it's because town gets shitty powers and/or scum get way too much power in exchange. Neither really was the case here.

That said, if the deputy was a VT instead, and scum turned a goon into say a 1-shot strongman, it's probably pretty close to balanced.

[Pine]

Deputy was a VT. Mod says that it was intended to throw off Town, there was no Cop. Couldn't replace Neapolitan. You're also not considering the Mafia Stalker, which is actually a fairly powerful scum role.

The problem here was that with a large number of investigative roles (Neapolitan, 3-shot investigative JOAT*, and Macho Innocent Child, which is essentially a self-investigator) mixed with other Town powers. Neapolitan, a more traditional JOAT, and a standard Doctor would have been plenty. The extra roles were overkill, especially when balanced against a single scum PR and a scumteam sized for a Mini.

I would consider Neapolitan, standard JOAT, Doctor, 6x VT vs 2 Goon, Encryptor, Stalker to be balanced.

*3-shot anything is practically a full role, so long as those powers are complimentary. Traditional JOATs have three different powers, like 1-shot Cop, 1-shot Doc, 1-shot roleblock.

As I've said before, all this setup grouching was irrelevant. The only real PR that made any difference was rb's JOAT, and one PR solving a game is simply a phenomenon, not something that can be predicted.

[rb]

I'm pretty phenomenal i agree, you should all nominate me for a scummy.

[Shadow_step]

I do know they thought the original setup was too scum sided but I think it ended up being rather town sided, though to be fair rb knocked it totally out of the ball park managing to successfully target both scum that he did. That is very unusual and should be noted.

was a fluke

[Shadow_step]

Like I said game was broken by day 1 mass claim, total BS town sided setup.

[Shadow_step]

This one, if I take an educated guess was at best balanced

Lmfao

[GuyInFreezer]

Like I said game was broken by day 1 mass claim, total BS town sided setup.

Let's see.

Even night RB? Sounds like a scum role to me.
Deputy? No cop claimed, could be lying.
Neapolitan? Could be a scum role. I certainly used it as a scum role last game even though it got lynched D1 iirc.
JoaT? The role could be scum, doesn't confirm anything.

[Shadow_step]

It tells Neapolitan who not to target, find out lying people cause all scum cannot claim to have a PR. It will lead to very easy POE.
Doc can protect investigatives forever, scum cannot do anything about it.

[Transcend]

hey can we see the scum pt

[GuyInFreezer]

Doc can protect investigatives forever, scum cannot do anything about it.

Kill the doc first?

[Shadow_step]

Plus they had an extra lynch, rolecop is scummy claim. If Dave claims tracker there is reasonable CC potential from the JOAT.

[GuyInFreezer]

Rolecop is p null claim these days actually.

[Shadow_step]

Can you release the review PT please or ask Nexus to do it?

[Zulfy]

What's the récord for fastest large normal?

[Nexus]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8432416

[mhsmith0]

It's actually an interesting exercise to imagine a d1 mass claim here. Scum don't really have the ability to tear through the PRs, which means that they'd basically need to WIFOM up some tinfoil on the town PR claims to win. Barring that, you basically have:

N1 scum kills doctor who protects neapolitan who hard-clears or condemns a VT claim
N2 scum kills neapolitan, while the RB and JOAT both have a chance to catch someone making the kill
N3 RB or JOAT gets killed
N4 RB or JOAT gets killed

So given a D1 mass claim (presuming scum all claim VT), you have six declared town PRs AND a N1 hard clear from the neapolitan (or an easy guilty for D2), all in an environment in which scum need to achieve five mislynches in order to win (barring double NK stoppage which while unlikely isn't impossible). So either scum manage to get all five non-cleared VT's (presuming N1 clear from neapolitan) mislynched OR they mislynch 1+ town PR claims. That's an extremely difficult road to hoe. As long as town doesn't mislynch a town PR, all they need to do is behaviorally clear at least one of the VT claims and scum can't win given D1 mass claim.

Or, given lack of D1 mass claim, you get a potentially even harder road for scum, because scum might shoot a VT on N1 or N2 OR scum might get stopped from killing twice (doctor plus even night RB is unlikely to stop two kills but it's not impossible), AND you have neapolitan that can easily clear or condemn a VT claim on N1/N2 unless scum get pretty lucky with an early shot (and if neapolitan claims and gets doc-protected N1, then scum is in even more trouble).

I'm not going to say it's totally unwinnable for scum, but I feel like town is going to win this setup like 80% of the time. Too many different ways that things can go right for town, and too few easy ways for scum to lead town astray or really counter town's power (the stalker clearly helps, but it's not really enough). I'd think that scum success would be HIGHLY dependent on eventually mislynching the deputy claim (and mislynching a declared PR is always tough), AND successfully shooting a PR every single night, and even there town has a lot of ways that they can make the game go well.

[mykonian]

How do people know the claims are true?

Why don't scum fakeclaim?

idk this is not what "broken by massclaim", means, claims aren't hard inno's, nor are the majority of these roles confirmable or even then confirmed town. The majority of the roles don't provide such a big benefit that they have to be shot asap, p much the doc, to some extent the IC, maybe the neapolitan but you can play around that one.

Just because RB wrecked scum doesn't mean town suddenly win this game in 80% of the cases. The only place that has had setups that come close to such numbers has been the large theme queue, a little while ago, and that was for scum. MS doesn't make games that town wins to such an extent.

[mhsmith0]

In terms of D1 mass claim, the concept I'd generally work from is "town PRs claim true, and scum all claim VT". In this specific setup, the stalker should in fact claim tracker, although depending on mass claim order that might well not be known ahead of time (i.e for all they know there is a town tracker or watcher, and then they're kinda screwed with that claim, if not immediately than at least eventually). I don't know why the other scum would necessarily claim some kind of town PR, but if they do (especially if they have to claim relatively early), there's substantial risk of CC'ing or having their claim stick out as being unlikely. And, of course, at some point they'll have to actually DO something with their claimed power (or claim to), and then they have to justify what they've done each night and why. A game-long accountability regimen for night actions is tough on the wolves if they've claimed PR's (a lack of an actual town tracker does help a bit, though the roleblocker could easily be used as a PR verification device).

Generally speaking, I think it's appropriate for there to be a legitimately reasonable path for scum team to win if they all claim VT on a D1 mass claim, and in this game I don't think that such a reasonable path really exists. A D1 mass claim is brutal on the wolves (though town wouldn't know it ahead of time), AND the numbers are really tough on the wolves (again, town doesn't know this).

Also just eyeballing single ball setups of around this size:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=37208

Spoiler: single ball, around 17p

167 town win
13v4
town has vig, JOAT, IC, gunsmith
scum has goon, goon, doctor, encryptor

169 town win
16v4
town has 2x masons, JK, gunsmith
scum has tracker, goon, JOAT, encryptor

170
16v3 town win
fully mountainous

172 town win
16v4
town has gunsmith, JOAT, even vig, JOAT
scum have goon, goon, goon, ascetic

174 scum win
17v5
town has doc, 3-shot vanilla cop, 3x mason, 3-shot vig
scum have encryptor, 4x goon

176 scum win
12v3
town has even gunsmith, vig, gunsmith
scum have 2x goon, doctor

179 town win
15v4
town has 3x neighbor, 2x mason, jailkeepr, odd tracker, even rolecop
scum have 2x goon, watcher, fruit vendor

183 town win
14v4
town has JOAT, tracker, friendly neighbor, doc
scum has goon, rolecop, roleblocker, encryptor

184 scum win
11v3
town has neighborizer, gunsmith, JOAT, odd night backup gunsmith
scum has encryptor, gunsmith, even night backup gunsmith

189 town win
15v4
town has 3x mason, 2-shot vig, gunsmith, fruit vendor
scum has 3x goon, doctor

190 scum win
12v2
town has 2x neighbor, 1-shot BP doc, 2-shot BP bodyguard
scum has vig, backup vig

192 town win
12v4
town has rolecop, JK, miller, 1-shot BP
scum have goon, cop, traitor neighbor, neighbor

193 town win
13v4
town has 1-shot vig, cop, JK
scum has 4 goons

196 scum win
15v4
town has vig, odd cop, doc, motion detector, nurse, backup nurse, 2x machos
scum have goon, JK, 2-shot commuter, neapolitan

I go through that list, and I don't really see any setups that are especially comparable to:

12v3
town has macho IC, neapolitan, even roleblocker, doctor, JOAT, deputy
scum has stalker, encryptor, goon

You pretty consistently see one or more of:
1) Better numbers for scum (167, 174, 192, 193)
2) Better powers for scum (176, 183, 189, 196)
3) Worse powers for town (169, 170, 176, 183, 192, 193)

I could maybe see 172 as comparable, but even there town powers are weaker since there's only four PRs instead of six, and on a larger board.
Probably the best comparison is 179, and town won that with some room to spare (both masons survived and won, though it went to F5). 196 probably comparable too, and that required a day 2 lynch of a doc claim, and for the vig to shoot the cop N4, and a fairly ridiculous run of consecutive mislynches by A50 as the last wolf in order to somehow eke out a win (I'd say more but I only kinda skimmed that game so I don't really remember it in much detail).

[Pine]

This wouldn't be broken by massclaim. The people saying so don't seem to fully understand the properties and ramifications of massclaim.

[Nexus]

To nominate this game and any players or mods in it, please see the Scummies nomination thread.