Elemental Mafia- Game Over!

[Macavenger]

Man getting killed N0 as a Jester is rough.

Vote: DGB

for great justice!

[Macavenger]

I'm a bit leery of starting quicklynches already. Unless we get a little more to go on than we have now, I think we're as likely to devastate the town to no good purpose as to actually get the cults. Two weeks would still be plenty of time to quicklynch a good half a dozen people if we used normal scumhunting for a week or so first to get a better idea of who to target.

Assuming that all cults were successful is a bad idea, I think. Assuming 4 cops, just from the roles presented there are at least 9/24 targets that will fail for each recruiter. Since BM hints at the possibility of other power roles, I'd guess 12/24 as being perhaps a more likely figure. We should still have ~1/3 anti-town currently, but I'd consider that a high end rather than low end estimate. It should also make our projections for Day 2 a little less dire. There's also no way they could move us directly to night Day 2 - they won't know they have half the town if they even do, and they can't coordinate with each other.

Given the possibility of other power roles, I'm against a massclaim - it won't simplify things nearly as much as if there were only cops, and it will point out the vanillas to any cult recruiters that survive today, making their job easier.

Unvote; Vote: TheSweatPantsNinja

Wishy-washy about quicklynching and massclaiming, and seems way too eager to run up both elvis and taff for rather specious reasons.

[Macavenger]

I think that was the most horrible vigging I've ever seen. :/ At least my judgement that Adel was probably town was on target.

I checked Adel's posts for any possible breadcrumbs, but I really didn't find anything. Random vote was mneme, but from later play that would be an innocent if anything. It's probably nothing.

I'm reconsidering my stance on quicklynching somewhat - I haven't been in a large game before now, so I didn't really realize quite how fast we'd be getting content earlier. We really do need to be accurate now with 2 power roles knocked out, though.

I am skeptical of Elvis Knits' claim.

Elvis, ooba, and TSPN seem like the scummiest candidates to me at the moment. Vote staying on TSPN for the moment, but I'm pretty willing to move it if I see more that I don't like at this point.

[Macavenger]

At least my judgement that Adel was probably town was on target.

"I told you so!"

It's hard to call it I told you so when I didn't say it in advance.

I apologize for muttering aloud to myself in the thread.

[Macavenger]

Since it seems I'm the main wagon, could anyone explain why? I would like the opportunity to defend myself, or if that's not an option, at least offer the town the service of trying to figure out who the scum on my wagon are, but right now I really can't do either because I don't understand why I'm the wagon and no one has given a reason for voting me. Are we just following Adel's list?

[Macavenger]

Since I'm up to 7 now and won't be able to post again for ~5-6 hours, I claim unrecruitable jailkeeper. I locked up DGB N0 based on reputation - figured her a likely target for at least 1 cult or SK. Hope the food was OK DGB. So assuming I wasn't also blocked, she's neither Wayne nor a cult recruit. Could still be a recruiter.

I've started an analysis of who I think is scummy on my wagon despite not having much to go on, but I don't have time to finish or post it now as I'm getting ready for work.

I'd just like to quickly point out though that TSPN's last couple posts strike me that he doesn't really care who is lynched as long as lynches get done - which doesn't seem to be a town attitude to me, regardless of the fact that we need to go fast. I'm happy with my vote there.

I tend to believe Mizzy that she's a townie confused about the way this game works. Since I also haven't played in a cult heavy game like this before, I'm not sure if that means we should lynch her as a confirmed recruitable or not. Going with no for the time being, on the assumption that it's better to hit people we think could be actual recruiters.

[Macavenger]

Trust me I noticed. The food was terrible. The mashed potatoes were gray, the meat loaf was gray, and the peas were gray. There had to be an explanation as to why I'm still alive. Feel free to keep me safe as long as Wayne is alive or beyond.

Damn, I was afraid of that. I'm a lousy cook. Sorry.

Does anyone have catering skills they'd be willing to offer my guest tonight? I'd like the experience to at least be tolerable.


I'm not liking jediknight either, although for slightly different reasons than DGB.

So I think that unrecruitables are very valuable. Not saying I necessarily believe the current roleclaim but wanted to put that statement out there.

Seems wishy washy about my claim while also trying to set up his own semi-claim here...

I am unrecruitable.

vote elvis_knits as well...I feel his bandwagon jumping is the most irresponsible thing I've seen yet. Does that mean scummy? Sure why not...its alot more than the reasoning anybodies given for anything thus far up to this point.

"I don't really know if this is scummy, but what the heck, I'll vote anyway."

Also why are you so terrified of the cults if you're unrecruitable? I'm feeling less scared of them knowing I'm unrecruitable - gives me an edge in going out to kill them.

In other news:

And yes, I might not really seem like I care who gets lynched. . . because I don't. A lot of the players who are protown now may not even be protown tomorrow. We shouldn't lynch at random, but right now, we are being too discerning, and we need to just start stringing people up.

In addition to the anti-town attitude of not caring who's lynched, not caring and saying it shouldn't be random is a contradiction.

If DGB does not confirm his role, I still think we should lynch him. Its a good fakeclaim, and not all that valuable that we need to worry too much about lynching it.

What makes it a good fakeclaim exactly?

So, you knew there was a good chance DGB could't specifically confirm or deny my role based on the night action. Despite that, you want to lynch a claimed power role just because the target doesn't confirm it? As Muerrto pointed out, this is just terrible.


I support TSPN and jediknight being the first 2 lynches at this point. I'm going to stick with my TSPN vote for the moment since I'm more convinced about him, but I'm willing to vote jedi also if his wagon picks up steam faster.

I am uncertain of the case on DoS at this time - need to reread him.

[Macavenger]

I guess I never thought about it, but can cult leaders recruit other cult leaders, thereby nullifying that leaders ability to recruit? And also, if a cult member can be recruited into a different cult, perhaps we aren't as screwed as we think.

Leaders are unrecruitable according to the role PMs posted on page 1.

Recruits are less clear, and I find that an interesting question.

Mod:

Can you tell us if cult recruits become unrecruitable, or could their cult membership change by being recruited by a different leader?

[Macavenger]

While I'd say the PM's sound like they can still be recruited, Xtoxm is right, it matters not to the town.

FoS: Mac

despite the claim.

You're correct. I was originally thinking it would affect cult growth rates, but I was being stupid. Whether they can cross recruit or not, the person is going to be just as anti-town either way. I need to think these things through better.

[Macavenger]

Also, what do you all think about the possibility for BM to include both a roleblocker AND a jailkeeper in the same game ? The two roles seem pretty close to me, the main difference being that one is more powerful than the other... I personally have the feeling that one of them is bullshitting...

This is actually part of the reason I expressed skepticism of elvis' claim when it first popped up, because at first glance it seemed an unlikely combination with my role.

I later realized that this is trying to outguess the mod, which is probably a bad idea. Combined with the fact that elvis has been playing more townlike lately, and the main accusations against her were from a VI, I'm no longer much into the idea of lynching her.

[Macavenger]

I'd still say lynch him before night

If we're going to kill him Day 1 anyway, is there a good reason not to do it while the wagon is already in place? I don't see keeping a "town" vote that has admitted he doesn't care who is lynched as worthwhile, especially when gambiting seems like a good possibility to me.

I basically see trying to disband the wagon and then reform it later as a huge waste of time. I mean, if we're convinced he's town, we shouldn't lynch him... but I'm not, and it doesn't look like Muerrto is either.

FoS: Muerrto

for stalling.

[Macavenger]

I'm not convinced but you're saying the trouble of voting him again is worth killing him now and losing his voice?

In the multi-lynch format we have going here, the time of disbanding and later reassembling a wagon is more valuable than a voice that doesn't care who is lynched.

Again, if we really think he's town, we shouldn't lynch him. I haven't seen anything that makes me think he's town.

[Macavenger]

Not sold on armlx. Bandwagoning isn't that serious an accusation in this game, and he hasn't done it nearly as bad as some others. Like lord_hur, for example. He's been on every single main wagon, and never voted for anyone else all day. Combined with that recent WIFOM comment,

vote: lord_hur

.

Jedi is still on my list of people to look at today.

[Macavenger]

DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx? I'm more inclined to trust your motivations than most people in this game since I'm nearly certain you're not a recruit or SK, but I'm not seeing what armlx has done that's worth going after.

[Macavenger]

DGB, can you explain why you want to go after armlx? I'm more inclined to trust your motivations than most people in this game since I'm nearly certain you're not a recruit or SK, but I'm not seeing what armlx has done that's worth going after.

Actually I see DGB leading most of these lynches. What town tells are you seeing from her?

I'm not seeing town tells specifically - as I noted in the post you quoted, it's a statistics thing based on my protection last night. I'm not getting town or scum vibes from DGB, and statistically she's less likely to be scum than the many other people I don't have a solid read on. It's not like I trust her implicitly. I would believe someone that I'd picked up specific town tells from over DGB. Unfortunately I haven't been getting solid town vibes from anyone, really. Trying to adjust my standards and such to accommodate the speed of this game has been a bit of a head trip. I should probably do a detailed reread in the next couple days.

[Macavenger]

Response to Kison: After thinking about what makes me uneasy about his posts. I think it is that he is trying to represent himself as having a whole bunch of original thoughts without really saying anything original. But again thats my opinion...

I'm sorry, are you talking about Cavebear or yourself here?

Vote: DoS

Also kinda feeling like that bit about normal scumtells could be an effort to encourage feelings of cold feet in anyone who's getting them over all the dead townies so far.

[Macavenger]

But seriously, I can see Mac's angle, but i'm not sure that it's the case...I don't think that's the type of argument a scum would come up with.

I don't know if that's the case either, just kind of a hunch I had since I'm kinda fighting against cold feet right now.

My vote is actually far more based on my other comment though. Seriously, reread DoS - his comment about appearing to add original content but not fits his own play quite well.

[Macavenger]

I believe that's a lynch.

Hm.. I thought it was weird that Jedi never even mentioned the DoS wagon but then Korlash and Farside defended him pretty strongly. Mac did as well but voted him anyway? Strange behavior.

Show me where I defended DoS? I remember saying much earlier that I wasn't sold on the case on him at the time, but I can't recall ever defending him.

[Macavenger]

first off, it is in towns best interest to lynch many, quickly. it is in cults interest to not lynch. The more we lynch, the less likely they will be able to build up. In reality, cult has no reason to want to see 10 town dead, they want to see other cults dead yes, but not so much town. If your wanting scum tells try and find people who are acting like they want as many lynches, but doing things that slow them down. Also late bandwagoning, and a small bit of poor reasoning for votes are also good tells. (keeps up apperances but little to no effort has been made)

I'm curious what some other more experienced players think of Korlash's logic about finding scum here.

Also, I don't think much more needs to be said about jedi.

Vote: jediknight

. I think he semi-claimed unrecruitable earlier. If you are an unrecruitable power role jedi, you'd better full claim, and hope it's testable.

[Macavenger]

Mod:

Andycyca and DGB haven't posted since Monday. Prods perhaps? Also, can you clarify the number of lynches we have left today? Looking back at that announcement, in one post it looked like the modkill and vigging were counting against our limit, but in another it didn't.

[Macavenger]

I have to say I'm not inclined to let a claimed SK live, especially when we have at least 2 other claimed pro-town roleblockers. Well, jailkeeper in my case, but that still blocks. I'd rather keep that role to pro-town players, if we can.

[Macavenger]

As for RB and jailkeeper in the game... why is this impossible?

Overkill in the RB department, maybe?

I thought this when she first claimed too, but the reveal of the inventor and dayvig and such has modified my opinion somewhat. We have a fairly stacked town - with 4 cults, we have to - and since my role as jailkeeper is theoretically primarily defensive, I can see having a plain RB too.

[Macavenger]

I agree with xtoxm that Andy has been awfully quiet. We've got 8 or 9 days to do 2 lynches though, so I'm probably going to try to take a detailed reread here before voting anyone again.

[Macavenger]

That's correct, I stop recruitment attempts on my target.

[Macavenger]

Kabenon had a pretty 'convincing' post about it being a false claim and him really being a CL. Xtomx backed it up pretty quickly without much thought and voted him at the same time. Little weird both of those. Moreso Xtomx who's been under heat earlier as well.

Andy also simply jumped in there at the end. As did Kison.

But then Xtomx jumped on Andy immediately after the lynch...

Vote: Xtomx

FoS: Andy

I assume by 'it' you're referring to jedi's claim here? Can you explain this a bit better? I may just be being dense, but I'm not seeing where you're going with this.

[Macavenger]

Erg0 raises an interesting point about the Lowell wagon here. Inspired by that along with my impression that Andy hadn't been contributing anything to the game, I went back and did a little lurker hunting. Some notes:

Roland hasn't said anything of any substance since April 18, a week and a half ago. He popped in for a "this is fast, I'm reading" post once since then. Even at the beginning when he was posting, there wasn't much substance.

Mod:

please prod/replace/something rolandofthewhite.

Andycyca has in fact contributed essentially nothing, just pops in to vote every now and then. Also one "damn why are we lynching town" post. Probably worth wagoning.

Pooky has been extremely quiet since replacing in, only popping in for essentially reasonless votes twice. My confidence in Mizzy's sincerity is dropping quickly.

ooba is an interesting one. He isn't really lurking, at least not on the same level as the others - I just kind of noticed this as I was reading posts by player looking for possible lurkers. However, his contributions have mainly been theory, especially encouraging use of the multiple lynch bit. The lynch limit was unfair, we should never go to night, etc. Very gung ho to get the town to lynch lots. But... his minimal contributions other than spouting off about that theory have been the type to slow down the town's lynching. He voted me back before I claimed (4/18), and hasn't done

anything

with his vote since then. His only comment of any substance on a wagon was encouraging us not to lynch jedi.

So, talking mostly about theory, appearing to push the town into quick lynches but actually trying to slow them if anything, and not tying himself to any wagons to be looked at later. Probably the most amazingly scummy package I've seen in a while.

Vote: ooba

Is there much of a possibility of townies lurking to try to avoid CL attention? I haven't really given much thought to how I would play as a recruitable, since I'm not. The idea just sort of popped into my head as I was studying lurkers, and makes me not want to just start arbitrarily lynching them.

[Macavenger]

Why would you feel any need to claim with 3 votes on you? And why would you react to a case mainly based on lurking/me-too play by wanting to claim?

FoS: Andycyca

[Macavenger]

We have 7 days to get 2 lynches in. At the pace this game has been moving, I don't see that as a big challenge, honestly.

I would very much like to see ooba looked at more, but I would be willing to support an andy wagon also. I don't care for the lowell, farside, or armlx wagons at the moment.

[Macavenger]

Why is armlx scummy? I've honestly yet to see a good case for that from any of the people voting him or advocating pushing him.

Andy is the main person I'd vote aside from ooba right now. If someone could lay out a case on kabenon I might be willing to go for that also; I don't see him as especially scummy at the moment but I don't appreciate everything he's done, either. I'll try to get a reread in tomorrow and see if I turn up anyone else that looks like a good suspect.

[Macavenger]

Why should we be trying to force claims out of random people we don't think are scummy?

[Macavenger]

You know what

Unvote; Vote: Andycyca

He's contributed nothing and trying to get random claims like that is most advantageous to cult recruiters so they can try to narrow down their field of possible recruits. We can look at ooba later, I think Andy is the best shot we've had at a recruiter all day.

[Macavenger]

Just noticed:

Elvis, are you recruitable?

I believe it would be a good idea to not have several wagons of 3-4 votes, since that is just a waste of time. If the people on two of the wagons jumped to a third, we could put someone at L-2 or L-1, get a claim, and do the same with the other wagons (and pretty quickly, too); and then, hopefully with time to spare, make a decision on who the two lynches should be.

Of course, that would mean that we would all have to *gasp* cooperate, which can be hard. I think we can do it, though.

We're down to two lynches. We have more than two wagons. Presumably, this means that all or most of us have one person we really want to lynch ahead of all others. Obviously, we can't satisfy everyone.
I assume that people are reluctant to change wagons, since they perceive that this would decrease the chance of their chosen target getting lynched.
What I'm proposing is that we gather more information about, IE get a claim from, some of these targets, so that we all can make a more informed decision on who to lynch.
The way to do this, I believe, is to recklessly abandon your own wagon in favor of the largest one. We then get that wagon up to L-2 or so; enough for the person to claim. We then unvote, and go for the second largest wagon etc. After a certain amount of time (I'm thinking Sunday or Monday, if we have one week until deadline) we stop this, look over our claims, and hopefully will be able to decide on two people to lynch.

What, then, do we do if someone refuses to cooperate? One option is to just lynch them right away. Someone refusing to claim is suspicious. I'd argue that the better option would be to leave them for a maximum of 24 hours, and then unvote anyway; if they didn't claim for the reason of not being around, they bloody well should claim as soon as they get back; and if they don't, well, we'll just have to take that into consideration when we decide who to lynch.

Someone seems quite interested in claims and whether people are recruitable.

FoS: Cavebear

Why did this bit about claims benefiting recruiters not occur to me earlier?

[Macavenger]

Someone seems quite interested in claims and whether people are recruitable. FoS: Cavebear

Why did this bit about claims benefiting recruiters not occur to me earlier?

Claims of this nature are helpful to CL's, but I get the feeling Cavebear has pro-town intentions with the way he's going about it.

It's certainly possible. The rest of Cavebear's actions have been sufficiently pro-town looking that he's about my last choice for lynching of people I find suspicious at the moment. Still, I see no reason to just ignore that he's been looking for information that gives the greatest benefit to cult recruiters.

[Macavenger]

Note: Andy is

not dead

.

Pink Puppy is an elvis_knits alt, so that vote may or may not count, but even if it does, Andy was voting someone else and did not unvote, so his vote for himself is void. Don't start unvoting him or anything, he's not lynched yet.

[Macavenger]

It's possible he's a recruit, self hammering would make sense then; as it prevents the possibility of drawing more links to your recruiter. Hell, even if he's a recruiter that has a recruit, if he knows he's screwed up and is about to be lynched, I guess there's always a faint hope he could win by having his recruit survive into a final 3 and endgame a townie. I agree self-hammering isn't bad for town in this game under certain conditions like it normally would be, but it's far from a town tell.

It's also possible that he knew he wasn't self hammering according to the rules and was gambiting hoping we'd assume he was dead and move on or something.

If you have knowledge that his result claim is bogus for some reason, I'd be inclined to trust that.

[Macavenger]

Well, 3 weeks after Day 1 was announced as started would be 3pm PDT on Wednesday the 7th. If we hear from BM tomorrow, that would give us a little over 4 days real time, with part of that a weekend.

I pretty much want to see Andy dead at this point though unless whatever Muerrto is finding out makes him very certain he's a tracker, though.

[Macavenger]

Either Andy is absolutely not a tracker or absolutely is, that's what I need to know. That's why it's hard to get confirmation because confirming a role is definitely not fair for the game but it will confirm him either way. We'll have to see.

Ouch, yeah. So answering your question will unquestionably confirm his role, but if it's a gameplay issue that we should know, like you're sort of implying... that's pretty harsh.

If BM declines to answer, what do you think we should do? I'd be inclined to kill him, since his behavior matches "cult recruiter" far better than "tracker"...

[Macavenger]

Unvote; Vote: ooba

Going back to the other wagon I support if Andy is more or less cleared then.

[Macavenger]

Hey, be forced away from the game for a couple days and the wagon I tried to start way back when finally takes off. Kinda like that, although I was hoping to see a dead CR when I got back.

I'd hammer ooba, but can't since I'm already voting him. :/

Motivation for anyone else reading the thread:

ooba is an interesting one. He isn't really lurking, at least not on the same level as the others - I just kind of noticed this as I was reading posts by player looking for possible lurkers. However, his contributions have mainly been theory, especially encouraging use of the multiple lynch bit. The lynch limit was unfair, we should never go to night, etc. Very gung ho to get the town to lynch lots. But... his minimal contributions other than spouting off about that theory have been the type to slow down the town's lynching. He voted me back before I claimed (4/18), and hasn't done anything with his vote since then. His only comment of any substance on a wagon was encouraging us not to lynch jedi.

So, talking mostly about theory, appearing to push the town into quick lynches but actually trying to slow them if anything, and not tying himself to any wagons to be looked at later. Probably the most amazingly scummy package I've seen in a while.

I still think he's faking pro-town actions while trying to disrupt our activities and not tie himself to wagons, fairly good scumtells in addition to the lurking.

[Macavenger]

Way to not unvote there, ooba. Still trying to fake being helpful so we'll just ignore you? Someone hammer please.

I may be up for a kab lynch after ooba before deadline. Need to reread him a bit. I don't think he'd be my first choice, but with such a limited timeframe I can see doing it.

[Macavenger]

Sigh.

I am less than entirely enthusiastic about the kabenon wagon, honestly, but I do see the case against him, and I don't see any potential to try to figure out and start a different wagon before deadline.

Vote: Kabenon007

.

[Macavenger]

Actually, this is making a lot more sense now. DGB and Korlash teaming up on the crusade vs. me, I can see one recruiting the other easily. Its just an issue of who is the puppet and who is the master.

That doesn't work though, since my lockup of DGB N0 prevented her from either getting a recruit or being recruited, regardless of her alignment.

And yes, I'm not planning on revealing my target last night unless a good reason appears. We do need to see a result claim from Andy, though.

I want to get some rereading in before voting today. Should have time tomorrow, I think.

[Macavenger]

DGB confirming that I jailed her makes her a bad lynch, IMO. Not willing to say more than that right now.

Korlash I plan on rereading, amongst others.

[Macavenger]

I'm having a really hard time figuring out scum in this game.

For now,

Vote: Pooky

. It's occurred to me that Mizzy's bit about townies wanting to join the winning cult could have been fishing for recruitables. Pooky not contributing anything after replacing her doesn't help much.

Also not terribly fond of Andy, Lowell, Korlash, or Farside right now. Waiting for a result claim from Andy before deciding what to do there. Pretty unsure about the rest.

More rereading as I get time. Hopefully it'll be more enlightening than this last batch I did.

[Macavenger]

unvote, vote pooky

. DR's post is a breath of fresh air.

Um.. he called for your lynch and told you to stop WIFOM'ing and claim so he's a 'breath of fresh air' and you bandwagon his vote?

CONFIRM Vote: Lowell

Yeah, that makes me like Lowell a lot less.

Unvote; Vote: Lowell

I'm cool with giving Pooky a chance to show up and talk before stringing him up.

[Macavenger]

Pooky has not been productive this game, and replaced a suspicious player.

[Macavenger]

So... you're claiming jail keeper, with role name bodyguard. Hmm.

[Macavenger]

Sarnath'd, so you're not claiming jailkeeper, more like doc/alarmist combo. Or just all purpose doc, to make it sound simpler.

I can buy that claim. Role name of bodyguard fits with what limited flavor I have in my role PM, more or less.

Unvote; Vote: Pooky

[Macavenger]

elvis claimed Cavebear as a target, Erg0. I don't want to claim my target right now, but I will say it wasn't Muerrto.

[Macavenger]

I think she means you didn't claim a N0 protection choice.

[Macavenger]

I wouldn't count the mucking up what a bodyguard is against him. I see that as a logical name for the role he's describing. Technically, my role name is Prison Warden - I just said jailkeeper because that's the common name for what the ability is. But the minor difference in role name makes what he's claiming relatively believable, at least to me.

That's not to say I think the way he's gone about claiming is flawless, or that the case against him has no merit. I find it believable enough that I don't want to vote him myself. On the other hand, the way he's gone about it makes me not want to try very hard to stop the lynch, beyond explaining my thought process here.

[Macavenger]

That makes me think about EK's claim of roleblocker.
In a game of Suicidal Dayvigs, Density Cops and Prison Wardens a simple "roleblocker" sounds out of place, doesn't it?

Yes, this has occurred to me, and would also call into serious question Andycyca's claim of just tracker.

Such could help explain why we're hitting so many power roles and no scum. There are other possibilities, though. Before I spell out exactly what I'm thinking here, I'd like Lowell and elvis to claim whether you are recruitable. It would help me evaluate the claims. I'll explain exactly why once they've both responded - obviously if one or both are lying scum and know what I'm looking for, they'll tailor their answers.

[Macavenger]

Mnemennenmenem, who recruited you N0?

Kison, this isn't a good question. We have no proof he was recruited N0, it could have happened N1.

Seriously though, the way mneme is clearly not paying attention and just hostily spouting town platitudes does say cult recruit to me. I'm thinking recruit specifically because a recruiter would probably be more interested in paying attention to the thread looking for information than he is.

FoS: mneme

Recruitable is not the answer I was expecting from Lowell.

Unvote; Big FoS: Lowell

I would prefer to see elvis claim recruitability before voting to help really nail down my theory, but given how wonky the Lowell claim has been from the start, I might be willing to vote on it soon anyway.

[Macavenger]

Possibly, Kison. I random voted DGB as a sort of crumb that I protected her, so I could see a cop with innocent doing the same thing. More importantly, Adel's play does not at all look like "cop with guilty" to me.

Of course, cop having an innocent is virtually meaningless this game.

[Macavenger]

Pretty sure that's not a hammer. Since Erg0 unvoted that makes 8 by my count.

Debating whether I should just hammer or wait to hear what I wanted from elvis.

[Macavenger]

Okay screw it, I just reread Lowell in isolation and it was painful.

Vote: Lowell

mneme should be next, IMO, unless he very quickly gives some indictaion he's actually paying attention or cares what's happening.

[Macavenger]

First order of business:

Mod:

request one day deadline extension due to the fact that the thread was locked for most of yesterday.

Second: elvis, don't claim recruitability now, with Lowell's death I already know my theory is bunk, and it no longer serves any purpose.

Now, mneme, let's deconstruct a couple of your recent posts to see where I get that you aren't paying attention and don't care.

How does it help for -anyone- for people to claim recruitable/nonrecruitable?

Doesn't this just help the scum make recruits that aren't going to bounce? The first few may make the scum more likely to collide -- but the more recruitables we reveal, the -more- likely the scum are to successfully recruit.

DR - he's not playing like this in Mature Mafia, at least; that may or may not mean anything.

Macavenger hasn't claimed, right?

Still not convinced on the Lowell BW -- though it seems like we have a -lot- of protective roles.

Let's see what's wrong with this. For the first line, I just explained prior to this post that I had a theory that could help evaluate the claims. Obviously I couldn't spell it out while waiting for answers, since then any lying scum would just give me the answer that sounded right. (For the record, the theory was that we had some "vanilla" power roles - tracker, roleblocker - that were recruitable, and some complex/flavored ones - prison warden, the weird cops, bodyguard - that weren't.) In general I would agree that finding out who's recruitable helps scum, but I had a specific reason here.

Second line is the useless platitude thing I was talking about. Yeah, we get it. See first bit about why I hoped this case was a useful exception. I think you're just shoving this out there to sound pro town.

Third line is the one that really demonstrates you aren't paying attention at all. I was one of the first people in the game to claim, and it's been discussed

many

times since then. It was brought up a couple times later D1, confirmed by DGB, etc. Today there was discussion of me not claiming my N2 target without reason. And if all that weren't enough to let you know I'd claimed, I had

just referenced my claim again 12 posts before yours

in the context of discussing Lowell's claim.

And finally, you're not sold on the Lowell wagon. Ok.

But wait, let's see what happens next!

Your next post you vote Lowell. What new information has come out since then? Well, he claimed recruitable, I decided I was more suspicious of his claim than previously, and... two more people had voted him. That's pretty much all the new content relating to Lowell. You also thought you were hammering, but actually hadn't paid enough attention to count the votes right and realize you weren't. So, this changing your mind with little new information (and no indication you'd reread) makes me think you don't really care, you just want to lynch people.

Vote: mneme

Kison, I agree with you that Pooky has been highly useless. At this point though, I'd recommend only lynching him if you think Mizzy was lying about being a recruitable townie yesterday. I can certainly see an argument for how her bit about townies wanting to get recruited was a CL trying to get a reaction from nervous townies, but I don't really know. At this point I'm kinda regarding Pooky as a "default lynch" to use armlx's term, and I think mneme is better right now.

[Macavenger]

Just to make sure I understand what's going on, are we wagoning Korlash for anything other than the directing scum thing?

[Macavenger]

Unvote; Vote: Korlash

I wasn't convinced on Korlash, but this refusing to full claim and pointing fingers nearly at random while being run up is not confidence inducing.

Also note that I don't really like any part of Cavebear's 1161 - includes the "I told you so" that I got run up for earlier, advocates looking harder at claimed power roles for little reason, still interested in elvis' recruitability for I don't know why, and seems quite focused on keeping recruitables alive. Cavebear is now competing with mneme for the coveted "next after Korlash" position on my list.

[Macavenger]

I'm honestly unsure where to go from here.

QFT. This is pretty depressing.

My enthusiasm for killing mneme is waning, since everyone else we've killed for similar stuff has come up town.

I dunno, lurker hunt? Seriously, I'm pretty lost.

Pooky might still be a good lynch. I'm having trouble reconciling his "I am the most powerful town power role, don't question me" bit with Mizzy's "So being town sucks and you want to get recruited into the winning cult right?"

[Macavenger]

The following three people can be said to have played a very big part of the game thus far, being on every large wagon since the one leading the TSPN's lynch:
- Muerrto (who semi-claimed some unmentioned, powerful town role and who's been directing wagons all day).
- Armlx (who managed to not claim yesterday and who's been following Muerrto around like a lost puppy).
- Macavenger (who claimed unrecruitable jailkeeper; we since then have found out that another (albeit weaker) protection role was very much recruitable. He is also, however, apparently confirmed by DGB.)
Does this mean anything, other than that their aim is horrible? Maybe not. Still: they're not doing a good job at finding scum, let alone recruiters. (Note: No, of course they're not alone in shouldering this responsibility. We all, as a town, suck at finding cultists.)

So, basically here you have a lot of text about nothing. Yeah, our aim sucks. So does the rest of the town, as you admit. Three people does not make a lynch. Basically you're singling us out here because we're very active players site-wide. Kinda makes sense we're going to be on more wagons in this game because we're all the type of players to check our games multiple times a day, every day.

List of possible frie/ice recruiters:

DR
mneme
DGB
Kison
Cavebear

EK - claim RB
Andy - claim tracker

armlx - semi clear

Mac looks basically cleared to me. If we believe Mizzy's townie claim, and Muertto's semi claim.

:goodposting:

What logic are we using to semi-clear armlx? Not saying I disagree - he looks pretty pro-town to me, but it's more of a feeling. I could see him being a recruit, but I don't think he's a recruiter, and that makes him a less desirable lynch for the moment, certainly.

I still think DGB is a bad lynch. I realize cult recruiter is possible for her, but honestly confirming me makes me think we should keep her alive. This is not just for the WIFOM reason of "why would a CL do that," but I don't want to get into my other reasoning unless I really have to. I would rather lynch Farside than DGB, since she could still be earth/wind.

Aside from that, looking at the way Xtoxm presented that player list, I agree the other 4 look like potential good lynches. Let's start with cavebear.

Vote: Cavebear

Oh and actually, I just remembered we only have 4 lynches for the rest of the day. Cavebear, mneme, Kison, DR doesn't sound like a terrible plan to me at this stage.

[Macavenger]

LMAO you're accusing me of OMGUS? Dude, I first voiced suspicion of you what, 10 pages ago? For the bit about being way to interested in recruitability.

Yeah, we've sucked at scumhunting this game. It's probably because we're trying to do it as normally as we can at a hyperaccelerated pace, and as you pointed out cults have reason to scumhunt too. We probably should have been going based on things like you pushing for claims and recruitability all along, and strung you up a long time ago.

Argue against Xtoxm's list. I'd like to see what you've got against that. Xtoxm is basically confirmed town at this point because he's an uncountered temp cop. Back when he first claimed I was a little suspicious because that was the correct call for scum fake claiming cop - a fire/ice cop wouldn't counter in case there were legitimately two of each, but a possible remaining density cop would counter immediately. But town has gotten small enough now that there's pretty clearly only one of each cop, and xtoxm is it.

I've pretty much proven my ability. If Muerrto is fake soft-claiming, he's doing an awfully good job of dropping fake crumbs and keeping it consistent. armlx is relatively confirmed - tracker faking correct results two nights straight is bad odds. Even just faking results on Muerrto N0, if you assume armlx recruited him N1, isn't good odds in a game this power heavy. armlx is still possible, but should be one of the last places we're looking. Pooky might be good, but he might be town, and can wait. Farside is really the only person off that list I think is good to lynch before anyone on it. e_k and andy would be next since they're least confirmed of the claims.

Basically if Xtoxm's list doesn't contain at least 1, probably 2 or 3 recruiters, I think BM is playing silly buggers with us.

[Macavenger]

I think I se what he's claiming.

Cavebear, claim your results if possible. Or point to posts where you crumbed them, something.

[Macavenger]

And actually if he is what I think he's claiming, his recruitability thing makes sense.

Unvote; Vote: mneme

Still would like to see some crumbs though. Well, I guess there'd only be one.

[Macavenger]

I'm pretty sure I know exactly what he's claiming Muerrto; I've seen this role before. I just can't say it without costing him the ability. As crazy as this game is, I would tend to believe him, and scum pulling this as a fake claim would take ridiculous balls. It does also explain his interest in whether everyone is recruitable, which is the biggest strike against him.

I hope I haven't already said too much about it, if so apologies cavebear.

[Macavenger]

Hmm, double sarnath'd. That's not what I was expecting.

Unvote; Vote: Cavebear

This claim no longer explains why you wanted to know about whether people were recruitable.

[Macavenger]

Lie detector.

[Macavenger]

Weren't you in Pirates vs. Ninjas Xtoxm? MBF had the role that game.

[Macavenger]

Unvote; Vote: mneme

Thinking about the claim and such more.

[Macavenger]

armlx, I somewhat agree, but by the same token, why the hell would scum try to manufacture something that crazy as a fakeclaim? Especially the bit about not being able to claim, that's not the best way to get people off you, generally.

[Macavenger]

Mc: Saying you can't claim is a very good scum tactic. Stalling for time to think of a fake claim. His claim is also uber convenient as its a confirmable role we can't confirm, plus it appeals to emotion by getting us to feel guilty about making him "lose "it.

I guess I can see that, but coming up with "SS that gives 50% chance person who hammers me dies each day" in 9 minutes while posting a couple times in between seems iffy to me. :X

I was kinda thinking about this earlier, under the idea that he might be trying to fake claim lie detector, then realized it wouldn't work when I demanded crumbs. But that again only gives him a couple minutes to come up with all this SS BS, which stretches believability.

[Macavenger]

Honestly I'd say vanilla claims are pretty damn suspect at this point. Two nights in with the number of dead vanillas we already have, what do you think the odds are that there are any vanillas left that haven't been recruited?

[Macavenger]

ABWOP: Also considering the number of psuedo-confirmed claims we have. There's very little room left for cults, which should be at minimum half the town by now.

[Macavenger]

Well, to be fair, I'm gonna be fairly suspicious of any claims at this point.

[Macavenger]

DGB's lack of contribution is rapidly making me less convinced she is a bad lynch, ftr.

[Macavenger]

elvis claimed a block on cavebear last night.

[Macavenger]

I would raise the point that Kison and DR should probably both go today, as no one is claiming blocks against either of them.

[Macavenger]

mneme already claimed vanilla, they aren't masons.

Actually, the way Kison is defending mneme here makes me think one recruited the other. more dead mneme please.

[Macavenger]

Mneme over Kison because the mneme wagon is already in place. Kison is scheduled to die later today, does it really matter which order we do kills in the same day on? :p

[Macavenger]

If anyone alive has ever targeted mneme, please claim it. Kison's claim strikes me as pretty fakeable, and the only way we'll disprove it is if someone has actually targetted mneme.

Honestly, at this point I strongly suspect at least 1 CL is hiding behind a fake claim. It's not Xtoxm, and I know it's not me.

Andy/Muerrto/armlx are only psuedo-confirmed through Andy's results and their own interactions with each other. They could all be cult together with Muerrto or Andy as the recruiter. I find this highly unlikely, especially given the blowup over Andy's claim yesterday with Muerrto nearly charging him to a lynch, but it's worth considering if we totally run out of options.

Is it worth forcing Andy to target someone like myself or Xtoxm tonight in order to confirm him, or more valuable to just let him track someone random and see what he turns up?

Farside's play is making me strongly think she's earth/wind at this point.

Unvote; Vote: DGB

we really need to get some lynches done on the remainder of the list.

The reason I've been saying DGB is a bad lynch is that her being able to confirm me implies she's an information role. CL wouldn't actually know if they'd been blocked or not, nor would a protective role. Only a role expecting a result has the technical capability to confirm me and not be lying about it. So DGB, if you're not a CL, please claim N1 result, because I didn't block her N1.

[Macavenger]

armlx, she was directing lynches D1. Don't you think if she'd had a guilty, she'd have been inserting it somewhere on her list?

[Macavenger]

Mac, if the recruit failed the CL could determine they were possibly blocked.

Possibly, but there are several other reasons it could have failed, so they wouldn't know. I mean, CL is the other option regardless - if she's lying, she's not town, and that makes her CL. But if she is town, she should have some kind of N1 investigative result. Demanding that she claim one is probably a good way to work out if she should be lynched.

[Macavenger]

I reread the first 6 pages, and I still don't think Adel had a guilty on anyone from her play.

[Macavenger]

Unvote; Vote: mneme

I can possibly buy into this guilty theory. We might also be able to semi-test Kison's claim, depending on what mneme comes up.

FTR I'm willing to kill basically anyone on Xtoxm's list still. mneme also has the largest wagon of that list, and we're falling way behind schedule.

[Macavenger]

ABWOP: Still want to see a DGB claim even though I'm not voting her right now.

[Macavenger]

Macavenger was busy having his limited access this weekend (which I think I forgot to mention in this game since it's my top priority) and then was catching up the 7 new pages.

Vote: Xtoxm

Temp was the right cop fake claim when Xtoxm made it, DGB's crumb is good, she confirmed me, and countering now would be retarded if she were a CR.

FoS: Erg0

for voting DGB, it's really quite obvious.

[Macavenger]

Vote: Cavebear

Since I actually do know I'm a jailkeeper, this makes me extremely confident in which way the lynch scene is going to go, and I'm not worried about having to lynch DGB.

[Macavenger]

Why do you guys think Erg0 is not scum?

Erg0's more likely to be a recruit. Rather go for a possible recruiter.

@Muerrto right, but I actually know I'm a jailkeeper, so I'm more confident than you can be taht Xtoxm will come up CL.

[Macavenger]

Kison is not confirmed. I highly doubt he's a recruiter at this point - fake claiming watcher and just using 1 breadcrumb to line up your info would take some pretty big balls as a CL (my thinking in saying we could psuedo test him with an mneme lynch was if mneme came up recruit, bang), but I could see him being mneme's recruit, possibly. Regardless, he's a bad lynch for today.

Don't entirely rule out Erg0/Farside as recruiters. They're far more likely to be Xtoxm recruits, but there's no rule that says he was successful both nights, and he has to come up with faked cop results either way. Still probably bad lynches today.

[Macavenger]

Something I posted 8 pages back that seems to have gotten lost in the mneme death that I'd like to see a bit of comment on:

Andy/Muerrto/armlx are only psuedo-confirmed through Andy's results and their own interactions with each other. They could all be cult together with Muerrto or Andy as the recruiter. I find this highly unlikely, especially given the blowup over Andy's claim yesterday with Muerrto nearly charging him to a lynch, but it's worth considering if we totally run out of options.

Is it worth forcing Andy to target someone like myself or

Xtoxm

DGB tonight in order to confirm him, or more valuable to just let him track someone random and see what he turns up?

Again, not saying we should go after any of them today, or even until we've tried other alternatives like Erg0/Farside, but it's worth thinking about a little bit. Especially interested in people's thoughts on the Andy targetting.

[Macavenger]

As for Ergo/Farside? Why'd Xtomx pick them? Why'd they both defend him? Not likely again. I'd say it's pretty clear they're his lackeys.

Suppose you are a townie who's been cleared by a claimed cop. Other people propose lynching said claimed cop. What do you do?

[Macavenger]

Yeah, it's far more likely Erg0 in particular is a recruit. Just saying, I don't find it productive to rule things out completely.

[Macavenger]

Meh we've got some downtime while waiting for the lynch scene to come up, thought we might as well discuss a bit.

Cavebear probably should be next. After that, I think I actually prefer DR to Pooky - DR posted some stuff about slowing down and thinking here right as we started to narrow in on the recruiters, whereas Pooky has actually been participating more in this phase of the game. Seems like an odd time for a recruiter to

stop

lurking, to me.

[Macavenger]

EBWOP: DR posted some stuff about slowing down and thinking more,

then vanished

as we started narrowing in on the recruiters.

[Macavenger]

What!!! I do listen. To the Voices.

They're just jealous that the voices talk to you, DGB.

Recruits still being able to kill after their cult leader dies changes the equation somewhat. They're still a very big danger to the town, and we may want to hunt them today.

Pooky's theory about Muerrto being mneme's recruit makes some sense to me. See also mneme isolation 6 for possible distancing.

Erg0 does make a good point about Xtoxm not claiming innocents on his recruits - since he's ice, that would be kinda bad if one of them got killed anyway. More generally, links like that are wonderful WIFOM for scum to set up, and shouldn't be trusted unquestioningly. We shouldn't be lynching them just because Xtoxm fingered them. Them not voting for him is a possible tell, but not a strong one - If you've been correctly cleared by a claimed cop, you're probably likely to believe that cop.

Pooky in my opinion is a bad lynch for today at this point. We should be killing Cavebear, then probably DR. I might be willing to go for Muerrto as one of the lynches instead. The links between Xtoxm and Erg0/Farside are just way too WIFOM to be worth going for today, IMO.

[Macavenger]

Pooky, the question is, if we assume for the sake of argument that Muerrto is mneme's recruit, is he mneme's only recruit? Because if mneme has 2 recruits, and we kill only one, that doesn't help us any - the other can still kill.

[Macavenger]

Case on DR is basically the Xtoxm list, which despite him turning up scum is still largely valid. More of it was based on claims than his investigations. Also, the fact that he seems to be suddenly trying to slow the game down as we zero in on the recruiters. roland lurking crazily before flaking doesn't help much.

[Macavenger]

What do you guys think of the idea of me locking up DGB again tonight? Since we now have potentially 2 scumgroups that can kill but not recruit, the confirmed town PRs will presumably be targetted, and I feel like having at least one of us alive tomorrow outweighs the value of DGBs investigation, particularly since we've already devastated one of the cults she targets.

Not voting DR yet because we've got lots of time and I want to strategize a bit here.

[Macavenger]

Just occurred to me that since I'm a likely candidate for death tonight, I need to post a few thoughts.

Cavebear coming up Ice should stop any thoughts of auto-lynching Erg0/Farside for being Xtoxm's recruits. I still think Farside is a decent chance at being a recruiter though, and probably still a good lynch. Erg0 less so.

I think Pooky is a bad lynch. Should note while I still can that I locked him up last night, so if you're going to go for him base it on what you think Mizzy was Day 1 - he didn't get recruited last night.

Muerrto has looked fairly protown, but then our judgement of what is protown has blown chunks this game. He should be forced to full claim tomorrow - I don't care what his role is, it can't help the recruiters much at that point because the game is almost over, one way or the other. Doubly true if DR is a recruiter.

Andy should probably be dead tomorrow since he claimed recruitable D1, if he's not recruited yet he probably will be tonight. Also keep in mind my bit about Andy/Muerrto/armlx, depending on what he comes up. Yeah I'm being paranoid, I'm a PR that's probably about to die so I feel justified.

Kison, I assume you know what you should be doing with your watcher ability tonight, just want to plug that here to get the recruits thinking about it too and maybe influence who they decide to kill.

Think that's about it. In case I'm dead tomorrow, good luck town.

[Macavenger]

I locked up Pooky again last night.

We still have 2 recruiters, and probably 3-4 recruits. DGB and I are confirmed, so that leaves 1-2 other townies.

Only 1 death last night suggests that we may have totally eradicated one cult. If so, my money would be on the ice cult being gone, both since we did nail an ice recruit and since DGB isn't dead. While it's also possible a recruit was roleblocked, I think that's probably less likely. I highly doubt either of the living recruiters would have attempted a kill last night.

With our tight lynch limit today, IMO Pooky should be off the table. If he's a recruiter, his cult is gimp as all hell since I've blocked him twice, and if he's not a recruiter he's probably a townie. Farside may be a good target. Kison's results may give us a good target.

I'm actually thinking massclaim today might be the play. If we do, it should be before Kison claims results. I don't know about the <= 7 rule, but we're probably running low on town, and locking people into claims and possibly trying to catch discrepancies with watcher results and such might be good. Regardless of massclaim or not, I do think Muerrto really needs to full claim today. This soft claim BS has gone on for too long now. I thought I saw what you were hinting at at first, but the other stuff you've said since then is making progressively less sense.

[Macavenger]

Stop the Farside wagon. Kison or elvis_knits is probably lying. More likely Kison.

I asked BM about how attempting to track a roleblocked player would work earlier, since I wasn't convinced by Andy's claim and wanted to open the possibility of catching him lying. He told me that if a tracker attempted to track a roleblocked player, he would get that that player performed no action. I don't see why a watcher would be able to see a player attempt to target someone when roleblocked if a tracker wouldn't.

Vote: Kison

[Macavenger]

I agree he's more likely to be a recruit. With Andy being confirmed, having a Watcher around makes sense. My guess is he was a Watcher, got recruited, and lost his ability.

[Macavenger]

Kison, it's not necessary that you both be lying. However, there's no reason to think elvis is lying in this case. If farside really targetted DGB, it would presumably be to recruit her, since she's not dead. The problem with that is DGB is confirmed in a role that's unrecruitable per the role PM for it posted in the opening post.

[Macavenger]

Correct, armlx.

[Macavenger]

So...

DGB = cop
Macavenger = jailkeeper
elvis = roleblocker (?)
Erg0 = mason
armlx = mason
Muerrto = invincible

Pooky = Wind recruiter (?)
farside = Fire recruiter (?)
Kison = Watcher, recruited to Fire (?)

elvis could be a recruit depending on how much Kison is lying, but unlikely. Erg0 and armlx could be cult together, but only if we don't hit recruiters in farside/Pooky. I can accept that Kison should be last due to the possibility of a mod error.

This all look right to everyone?

So, lynch pooky and Farside, I block Kison, elvis blocks armlx or Erg0 if we haven't hit both recruiters?

Unvote; Vote: Pooky

Incidentally, elvis, thanks for justifying my choice last night to block Pooky over farside on the basis of "elvis will probably block farside." <3

[Macavenger]

elvis blocks armlx or Erg0

Reading is tech.

[Macavenger]

Hmm. If Pooky's claim is true, everyone except myself, him, and DGB is cult.

Unvote

while I consider.

[Macavenger]

Pooky's claim makes some sense to me. Running under my previous theory, we'd have to assume only about 2-3 recruitment attempts (out of ~10) succeeded the entire game. Even taking blocks and crap into account, that's extremely poor luck on the part of the cults. I also haven't explained the Andy kill last night, I've recently realized, although that could be Kison being an mneme/xtoxm recruit.

Under Pooky's claim, 50% of recruit attempts succeeded each night, which is about the ratio I would expect.

Pooky's claim as it stands is also an unbelievably risky fakeclaim - if we lynch ANYONE other than him or DGB and they come up town, he's boned.

OTOH, Muerrto's claim is also pretty sensible for this type of game, and directly conflicts with Pooky's claim. Since Muerrto is Sarnathing me here, Muerrto, you're not as confirmed as you think you are. Your claim does also make sense to me, and they can't both be correct. However, DGB and myself are entirely confirmed to each other at this point, even if we're not quite that much so to the rest of the town.

I'm stuggling with the fact that Pooky's claim is astoundingly risky if false, that the amazingly low number of successful recruits if it's false is kinda ludicrous, and also that if it's not false and we lynch him, town is very, very hosed.

And yes, I'm paranoid. Deal.

[Macavenger]

Xtoxm and mneme have no claimed blocks against them. They each got 2 recruitment attempts.

If we go by the theory of Pooky + Farside = remaining recruiters, There are 3 blocks between them, so 3 total recruitment attempts between them. Assuming elvis is recruited (iffy assumption under this theory), 3 successful recruits out of 7 unblocked attempts. Still kinda low, but believable. Hmm.

[Macavenger]

I'm thinking the play might be to test our masons right now. Consider. If the masons really are masons, this tells us that our setup assumptions are largely correct - Pooky is indeed a recruiter, and there can't be many other cult left out there, since we'd have 3 confirmed town (me, DGB, other mason) and one near-confirmed (Muerrto) remaining under that setup. We could get a guaranteed recruiter with our other lynch today, and have enough blocking power to pretty much shut down the remaining cults' night actions. OTOH, if the "masons" are lying cult, it's good that we know that now, and we also have a guaranteed cult hit with our second lynch of the day.

I'm not really seeing any drawbacks to this plan. We get guaranteed cult for our second lynch today no matter which way the first "mason" flips, and if they do flip town, we know we have the lynch to waste on them now.

Any counter opinions?

Also, Muerrto, slight counterpoint to your post while I was writing this again: He can't be a recruiter with a large cult because I've blocked him twice. He has 1 recruit max if he's cult.

[Macavenger]

Addendum to the previous: This also has the benefit that if Pooky's claim is correct, we don't instantly fuck town over with our next lynch. Though if Pooky's claim is true, this is only a concern to me, Pooky, and DGB.

FWIW, I lean toward the side of Pooky lying. I don't think I lean that direction heavily enough to risk the game by lynching him next, though.

Also as a note for Muerrto's post cutting in between me again, the "test masons" plan is IMO good whether Pooky is lying or not.

[Macavenger]

Farside hasn't claimed, so isn't really lying.

The thing is Muerrto, if we test the masons now and they are masons, we basically

know

who the recruiters are (Farside + Pooky). We lynch one and block the other. They can't hurt us, and in that scenario, we have a spare lynch.

If the masons are lying cult, independent of whether Pooky is lying, if they remain alive today, they're a huge threat Day 4, as they're almost big enough to endgame town. Could actually be that big, if they have some other recruit and kill myself or DGB tonight - that would give them a cult of size 3, with 6 players alive at Day (since NKing me would be near certain to succeed) = they win.

If Pooky's telling the truth (unlikelyish), then town is probably fucked anyway, but the masons are still good to lynch because they're scum.

The more I think about this, the more certain I am that we need to test the armlx/Erg0 mason pair right now.

Vote: armlx

[Macavenger]

Pooky, who do you think are the remaining two townies, besides yourself?

[Macavenger]

Muerrto, read what I'm posting. Even if you are town, and Pooky is lying, testing the Masons is a good and necessary play at this point. because if they are not masons, there is a high probability that they win after tonight.

[Macavenger]

Pooky, didn't you say earlier you were sold on me? So you thought it was me, you, and DGB? Now it's Mac, you and DGB?

How is anyone even coming close to buying this?

He was sold on your being Earth.

I'm far from unquestionably buying Pooky's claim. However, it has prompted me to do some horrible case thinking that makes me realize the masons need tested independent of his claim.

[Macavenger]

Muerrto

Ignore Pooky's claim for a minute, let's pretend he's exactly what we think, lying horrible sack of shit recruiter

Now let's pretend we're wrong about farside, and one of Erg0/armlx is a recruiter, the other one is a recruit. Then maybe Kison or elvis is also their recruit, so they have a 3 cult

We lynch Pooky and Farside, go into night with 7 alive, they NK me, which nothing can stop unless elvis isn't a recruit AND guesses lucky

Oh shit now there's 6 alive and 3 are their cult, they just won

WE HAVE TO TEST THEM RIGHT NOW whether Pooky is lying or not.

If you're town, this is necessary. If you're with any cult not them, it's still good play because chances are they're the largest cult

If they're really masons, we still have a basically guaranteed town win even though we wasted a lynch

There is no good reason not to be testing the masons right now unless they are cult and you are in their cult, and there is every reason to do it because if they're lying they may be on the verge of winning

[Macavenger]

Also, the above post is brought to you by Blizzard entertainment, teaching me how to type really fast but with no puncuation through 3 years of playing World of Warcraft.

[Macavenger]

So, Pooky's telling the truth and you're cult with them? K.

There is no drawback to this plan unless you are cult with them. Town will still win if they are telling the truth, period.

[Macavenger]

Remember we have no real proof that farside targetted DGB last night. Kison is far from a confirmed watcher, and if he did get a result that farside targetted DGB, there was a mod error involved. You're putting way too much credence in this "farside and pooky are all that's left" idea. Do you seriously think only 1 recruiting attempt was successful all game? That's ridiculous.

[Macavenger]

Who the hell blocked me? I claimed D1, there's no reason for any town roleblocker to block me unless they didn't believe me, which no one has voiced, there aren't any roleblocking scum roles after we got the SK, and elvis is the only other blocker anyway and has claimed to block other targets.

Your stretching the bounds of believability incredibly here with the shit you're making up to try to justify why testing the masons is a bad idea. Every post you make right now is convincing me more and more that you, armlx, and Erg0 are cult together.

AFK dinner.

[Macavenger]

It occurred to me during dinner that if armlx/Erg0 are not-masons, Erg0 is the recruiter, because with Andy flipping town, his no-target tracking result on armlx is valid. This also makes the possibility of the masons being scum less dire, because we do know who to block to mess them up tonight if they are cult.

Unvote

while I go reconsider again.

I'm still having trouble recognizing your total refusal to test the masons here with the role you claimed, Muerrto. But I also have trouble reconciling yoru play around Andy's claim with just about any other role. You're confusing the hell out of me right now.

[Macavenger]

EBWOP:

I'm still having trouble

recognizing

reconciling your total refusal to test the masons here with the role you claimed, Muerrto.

[Macavenger]

Muerrto's claim is pretty solid. Has been all along. I just have niggling doubts because a) You being so adamantly opposed to testing the masons when I've demonstrated town can still win if they are masons confuses me and b) Pooky's claim intuitively makes sense to me, that there should be a ton of scum left.

I've been leaning toward believing Muerrto over Pooky all along (this may not have been entirely clear from my posting lol), I'm just nervous about what could happen if the masons are lying.

Thought about the paranoia, Muerrto: I am, by nature, an extremely competitive person. Playing chess with my friends in high school, when I was way better than all of them, I couldn't play down to their level because I literally couldn't force myself to play badly to make the game more fun - couldn't figure out how to do it. :p I'm smelling a town win right now, and if I see a 90% chance to win (kill Pooky/farside) and a 99% chance to win (test masons), I'm gonna push hard for the 99%. Figures are, obviously, totally arbitrary.

The revelation during dinner that, if the masons are scum, we know who the recruiter is, makes me much less adamant about testing them, although I still think it's probably a good idea.

Also, Kison, I don't count elvis as confirmed not-recruiter. If you're telling the truth about your results, then she's confirmed to you, but I currently don't trust your results because of what the mod told me and such, so she's not confirmed non-recruiter to me.

[Macavenger]

Wind recruiter does in fact confirm armlx and Erg0.

I have been thinking about this game more while attempting to sleep. BM, you now owe me a couple hours of sleep, or some form of compensation for them. Please give me your home address so I can send you a bill or something, thanks.

Anyway, the relevant part of this is, I have determined to my satisfaction that Pooky's claim is BS. Consider this:

If his claim is correct, Erg0

must

have recruited armlx N0.
Cavebear's play was very similar D1 and D2. The claim fishing and crap started D1. Strongly suspect he was recruited by Xtoxm N0.
If Muerrto is lying cult (big fucking giant huge if), he has to be a recruit per Andy's tracking results. Since he has been crumbing his invincible role and crap since D1, he was clearly recruited N0.
Kison's results imply he was likely recruited N0.

Even if we allow Pooky's backtracking of his claim down to 5 current cult (this is lame btw), At least 3 of these have to be cult. All of them look strongly like they were recruited N0. That would give us at least 7, maybe 8 cult after N0.

Oops, Pooky claimed we had 6.

Muerrto's actions with respect to Andy's claim are very, very difficult to explain if he's a cult recruit, or any role other than what he claimed. Combined with the above analysis, I feel very comfortable saying Pooky is lying.

Need to run a little worst case scenario math in my head to determine whether we must test the masons before Pooky or not. Will probably vote Pooky shortly.

[Macavenger]

Absolute worst-case scenario:

Muerrto = Invincible town
DGB = Cop
Mac = Jailkeeper
Pooky = Fire recruiter
Erg0 = Wind recruiter
armlx = N0 Wind recruit
elvis = N1/2 Wind recruit
farside = N1/2 Wind recruit
Kison = N0 Earth recruit

Very unlikely, but lynching Pooky in this setup results in an immediate Wind cult win.

Worst case if masons are real masons:

Muerrto = invincible town
DGB = Cop
Mac = Jailkeeper
Erg0 = Mason
armlx = Mason
Pooky = Wind recruiter
Kison = Fire recruit
Farside = Fire recruiter
elvis = Earth recruit

(the above alignments are somewhat random, somewhat not. In the massive worst case build, they aren't at all)

Gah. I really don't like the looks of this. If armlx and Erg0 are lying Wind, leaving them alive today is going to suck lots. But if they're really masons, testing them today is potentially worse than I thought also.

Hmm.

[Macavenger]

armlx and Erg0, have either of your breadcrumbed your masonry, other than through defending each other? Point them to me if so, please.

[Macavenger]

Well, yes, that does nicely solve the question of whether we need to test armlx and Erg0. They're definitely town.

We do still pretty much know there's an earth recruit. The scum basically have to be confined to {Kison, elvis, farside} at this point. My personal guess is that they're all cult - probably one earth recruit, one fire recruiter, one fire recruit. I'm pretty sure based on numbers and the way Mizzy was acting D1 that Pooky had no recruits, and the death last night strongly suggests the Ice cult is gone.

I'm willing to go for farside, since even though I strongly distrust Kison's results (my personal guess is he's the earth recruit), farside basically has to be cult anyway, and I'm willing to accept the possibility that there was a mod error.

Unvote; Vote: farside

[Macavenger]

I blocked Pooky nights 1 and 2.

[Macavenger]

Except that DGB confirmed me.

My personal guess is that Farside and elvis are Fire together and Kison is the Earth recruit.

Have to run to work now.

[Macavenger]

I can target DGB if you guys want to prove I still have my blocking ability. Although that apparently wouldn't do much now that it's being speculated I'm somehow recruited and kept my ability. Not that I have room to talk here, but who's being paranoid now? I'd also much rather use my ability on Kison or elvis to actually stop cults.

[Macavenger]

I still think there's a good chance Kison is earth. He really wasn't bussing mneme - up til the point he hammered, he was being noncommittal/defensive.

[Macavenger]

The problem is, if Kison's result is legit, either there was a mod error again, which would surprise me given that one had already happened and I'd asked about a related case - you'd think he'd be careful there - or DGB should be dead. It just doesn't make sense to me.

I really do think Kison is cult, at least at this point. I buy into him starting the game as a watcher, but I think he got recruited. The question is when, and by whom.

[Macavenger]

Yeah, the idea that we could have had only 2 recruits all game bothers me a lot. That said, there is some support for it - Pooky was blocked twice, in theory farside may have been blocked once, assuming for the moment farside is a recruiter, I can see her as having tried to get DGB N0 - her early "wait DGB is still alive must fix" could be a reaction of someone with a failed recruit, especially on a player like DGB that's popular to lynch/kill early. Wouldn't surprise me if maybe someone tried to go after Pooky N1 since the general opinion at the time was he was likely vanilla, and maybe fire/ice both went for Andy N1? Dunno. Two recruits just seems ludicrous on the face of it, but I can construct a relatively plausible scenario for it.

And yes, I spent way too much time thinking about this game at work today.

[Macavenger]

I would prefer to block Kison over elvis, as my personal feeling is he's more likely to be cult. That said, do you all want me to block elvis? I'm willing to if that's the town's preference, since my personal preference is fairly small.

[Macavenger]

Shrug. So I jail elvis, elvis blocks Kison, Kison watches DGB then?

[Macavenger]

elvis, I think the point is we're trying to figure out who's lying based on where the chain breaks.

[Macavenger]

I'm a jailer, so I block any kill or recruit attempts made either by or against my target. My target does nothing, and nothing hostile is done to them. My target can still be investigated, as far as I know.

I would prefer I not be blocked, since confirmed-town DGB is vouching for me and since my ability is more powerful.

If farside flips not-recruiter, I'm locking up elvis, period. Otherwise, I'd rather do Kison.

[Macavenger]

Actually elvis never claimed her recruitability. I claimed unrecruitable early, when I claimed jailkeeper under threat of lynch. As it happens, I was also telling the truth, not just trying to WIFOM it.

[Macavenger]

I did in fact lockup Kison last night, so his result is correct.

While I still think there's a pretty good chance Kison is a (the?) recruit, this shouldn't be interpreted as a guilty on him exactly.

Also, I'm really, really not recruitable. I know it sounds a little strange given that most of the other PRs were, but I'm actually not. I claimed it because I wanted as strong a claim as possible to disrupt the BS wagon on me.

Anyway, if Kison is the recruit, he could have seen his kill not go through and guessed that he was blocked. This is especially true if he tried to kill me, which would probably be his best play if he is a recruit, as he'd know that no one else could have protected me.

On the other hand, killing Kison is a good play for anyone else as a recruit, since because we're looking for an earth recruit, he's the only possible power role remaining that can find them. My jailing would have stopped any such attempt last night also.

Kison's N2 result on farside still makes no sense to me. How did farside target DGB, go unroleblocked, and nothing happen? I mean, farside is too good of a player to not know the cops aren't recruitable and have tried to recruit DGB. Kison and I both agree that if she was roleblocked she shouldn't have shown up in his result. The only other explanation is if temp cult can't kill temp cop, but there's nothing to that effect in either the cop or recruiter role PMs on the first page.

elvis' "didn't get it in time" is a little sketchy, but could be quite honest. Only thing that points to elvis really is Kison's N2 result if accurate, though.

My preference here is Kison, elvis, Grand Canyon size gap, Muerrto. Muerrto is like the emergency last ditch WTF nothing else worked option. Kison, if you really are town, sorry buddy, but your N2 result just doesn't add up really. Good news is if you are town, you're still going to get a win here.

Vote: Kison

I see little point in waiting for DGB's result - at this point it strongly looks like all we're looking for is one Earth recruit, so her result would tell us nothing. Even if there is still a fire recruit too, it should be confined to Kison/elvis, and in that event they both have to be scum.

If the game doesn't end when Kison dies, I will obviously lockup elvis tonight. If I die anyway, don't automatically assume this clears her - I asked BM what would happen in the event of two people trying to roleblock each other earlier, and he said whoever sent the choice in first would win, and I could see a kill/RB duel working the wame way. I'll PM him requesting more info on that and see if I can get confirmation one way or the other up before the day ends, just want that out there in case things go horribly wrong.

[Macavenger]

Oh and armlx, this is fairly pointless speculation, but I'm guessing farside tried to recruit DGB N0 based on her early "wait DGB is alive" post, Mizzy maybe went for farside N0 on reputation, Cavebear and (Kison, assuming he's it) were recruited N0, fire/ice crossrecruited say me or Andy N1, No clue what mneme did N1 (Pooky maybe?), Pooky blocked N1/2, farside blocked N2. That's my guessing explanation for 9/10 of the recruiting attempts and why so many failed. It'll be interesting to see how close I am once targets are revealed when this is over.

why lie about seeing Farside go after DGB? That makes total sense and may have actually happened except Farside was blocked.

I think you answered yoru own question there.

[Macavenger]

Claiming a result on someone who looks like obvscum when you already know they were roleblocked is a good fake claim, since it's tough for them to counter you, and if they are lynched as scum you look pretty good. Aside from the whole no tracking results on bocked people thing, which if you were making up results you wouldn't have known.

[Macavenger]

Although the fact that Kison is still here fighting is almost a point in his favor, I mean whoever the scum is has to know they're totally boned at this point. I'm a little surprised he's trying so hard. I still think the N2 result is damning, though, and mneme both N0/1 is a little sketchy.

[Macavenger]

Really doesn't much matter who we kill of elvis and Kison. I don't understand why we're bothering to turn the wagon around exactly, but whatever.

Unvote; Vote: elvis

[Macavenger]

Lockup of Kison sent, for the event this doesn't end the game.

[Macavenger]

Role: Prison Warden
Recruitable:

No, you aren’t.

Ability: Each night you may choose a player to lock in a cell. How Lovely! That player will be protected any recruitment attempts and kill attempts made upon them, but will also be unable to use any night actions they possess. You may not lock yourself up (if that thought was crossing your mind). During the day, you can also vote for who you want to lynch.
Win Condition: You win when all anti-town forces have been killed, or otherwise removed from the game.

I really wasn't kidding about being unrecruitable, in case there was still any question.

Rather unlucky for the cults that 2 of them went after Muerrto N0, and all went after unrecruitables. I really don't understand Xtoxm's decision to attempt a kill there - no reason for that at all N0. Farside's kill attempt on Pooky makes more sense, but it should still have been a lot easier to recruit someone else and try to get Pooky lynched for his lurking, I would think.

Game was definitely a lot of fun. I'm very surprised by the way it turned out. I'm not really sure about how unbalanced it was, looking at it - there were 10/24 unrecruitables (assuming the dayvig was recruitable, I guess we never found out) from each recruiter's perspective, so having all 4 of them fail N0 isn't really something you can balance around, that's just horrible luck. With better night choices and less bad luck on the cults' part, this could have gone very differently.

I'm amused that my N1 lockup of Pooky kept a recruiter alive.