Lynch the Wolves (Game Over)

[Ankamius]

My PoE from a bit ago was you + Brian + Vecna but I'm pretty certain that isn't the case anymore (with Oath basically confirmed vampire)

Now I don't really know where to go

[Ankamius]

My scumread on Vecna is probably just me being mad that I got shut down when I tried to engage by him a few times but this latest reach out idk

This game gives me a headache

[Ankamius]

well gamma

now that we know that Oath is not scum

the part that fits is both town with an outside chance of only titus being scum

so

[Ankamius]

Okay here's an Oath town case

1. No sane scum wants to derail a gamestate that has multiple town competing for the chopping block, which is exactly what Oath would've had to do for the claim to be scum.
2. Scum don't, on top of that, try to derail multiple town wagons onto a scum, themselves
3. After failing to get themselves lynched, scum don't completely stop trying to get themselves lynched while also claiming an action that is going to get heavily scrutinized
4. Upon that action failing, scum would claim a target that is protown for them to target instead of claiming the most suspicious slot to target.

This is such a dumb scum play on so many levels. Now what happens if you look at it from a protown perspective?

1. Town 3p replaced in and saw that their role was going to cause confusion to the town while it was alive, so they tried to get it lynched in order to keep the role from becoming a distraction and potentially confscummed falsely later.
2. Town are less afraid to claim commonly thought of as dumb targets because they are less concerned with looking town than scum are.
3. There are actually strong protown reasons to suggest that the drain on hebichan isn't a bad idea (it saves the action usage if the slot dies for one)

Which makes more sense

[Ankamius]

you aren't trying hard enough Nos

I mean come on

[Ankamius]

go on...

[Ankamius]

where's Lady Angel at

[Ankamius]

Oh I looked back at her last post and it was addressed

Okay back to lurking I go

[Ankamius]

Okay here's an Oath town case

1. No sane scum wants to derail a gamestate that has multiple town competing for the chopping block, which is exactly what Oath would've had to do for the claim to be scum.
2. Scum don't, on top of that, try to derail multiple town wagons onto a scum, themselves
3. After failing to get themselves lynched, scum don't completely stop trying to get themselves lynched while also claiming an action that is going to get heavily scrutinized
4. Upon that action failing, scum would claim a target that is protown for them to target instead of claiming the most suspicious slot to target.

This is such a dumb scum play on so many levels. Now what happens if you look at it from a protown perspective?

1. Town 3p replaced in and saw that their role was going to cause confusion to the town while it was alive, so they tried to get it lynched in order to keep the role from becoming a distraction and potentially confscummed falsely later.
2. Town are less afraid to claim commonly thought of as dumb targets because they are less concerned with looking town than scum are.
3. There are actually strong protown reasons to suggest that the drain on hebichan isn't a bad idea (it saves the action usage if the slot dies for one)

Which makes more sense

[Ankamius]

Town as in 3p that can win with town

It's just easier to say town

[Ankamius]

what have you read so far tora

[Ankamius]

is it time to lose the game yet

[Ankamius]

did you see my Oath case

[Ankamius]

Vecna is a traitor if at all

No reason to lynch him

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Titus

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Titus

Ank, I get it but you just are listening too much to the title of the game imo.

that's just a piece of why I'm pretty certain Oath is telling the truth

If I'm wrong, then fine, but I think with the information that I have, it's not worth exploring.

[Ankamius]

collate who everyone wants to lynch and I'll probably vote there

I'm about at that point of idc by now

[Ankamius]

ftr

it's very very unlikely that both oath and vecna are anti-town unless the scumteam is traitor heavy

[Ankamius]

fuck it

VOTE: mathblade

[Ankamius]

I've already made my thoughts known, I don't think town ever wins here either

[Ankamius]

Like who

[Ankamius]

Because if you say Oath, I'm checking out of the conversation

[Ankamius]

Tbh Brian slot is probably my preferred overall

[Ankamius]

Thank you for your assistance in solving the problem

[Ankamius]

Thanks

Now

Who were your lynch preferences again

[Ankamius]

Do I have a confused kitty avatar, I don't think I do

Oh well I'll have to look for a confused avatar eventually

[Ankamius]

you know I want to be really sure I know where I'm going because I swear half the game follows me when I hop

so instead of doing anything

I'm just going to sit here

[Ankamius]

where the fuck were you guys when I was scumreading that slot before it got replaced 30000000000000 times

[Ankamius]

I get bragging rights if it flips scum

VOTE: Lady Angel

[Ankamius]

never trust a yuurei

[Ankamius]

With how disjointed everyone is, no lynch is ever good

[Ankamius]

Kinda ironic though, were lynching the slot that was the most heavily townread of anyone in the game for the entirety of day1 and day2. Noone cares about that anymore, because a replacement for the slot is in, and it didnt do a proper catchup of 200 freaking pages.

Noone is noticing that a few scum were already bussing on Mathblade, but because it did a weakass appeal to emotion, they used it as an excuse to either unvote Math and go to a vanity wagon or jump ship to this wagon which theyve been heavily stating was town before.

And then you dare to complain that you no longer see any way for town to win.

I didn't do any of this so I still get to complain that town can't win

Whew

[Ankamius]

I don't agree with putting Vecna in there btw

[Ankamius]

Sigh whatever

Please fucking vig me I want out of this game

[Ankamius]

I'm not going to go into that for the 500th time like I had to with Oath

[Ankamius]

Please put Vecna on the neighborhood so that the traitor can directly talk to scum

Thanks

[Ankamius]

Maybe I should spell out that a town-aligned 3p would make sense with a scum-aligned 3p in the same setup

You know... a traitor that doesn't show guilty to seers

[Ankamius]

This is a mastina game, Nos

[Ankamius]

PLEASE do

[Ankamius]

Please lynch Oath tomorrow too, that is never a remotely good idea but do it anyways since memory probably resets at the beginning of every day and the evidence for why Oath is very very unlikely to be scum on top of the win condition stating that we don't need 3p deaths will just vanish overnight

[Ankamius]

Okay good night, see you in the dead thread probably

[Ankamius]

lol

this game is so solvable today

[Ankamius]

I think I have at least one mafia 'pegged' and I believe the vampire claim

hebichan needs to claim last night's result

[Ankamius]

Oath when did it start?

[Ankamius]

Oath when did it start?

When did what start?

nvm my thought regarding that is wrong

[Ankamius]

5. Ankamius

7. Nosferatu
8. Toranaga

10. zMuffinMan

11. Titus

12. Vecna

13. MathBlade

14. Gamma Emerald
15. hebichan

16. Oath

wolves are in these five slots, I don't see how any of the crossed out names can be wolves

[Ankamius]

Titus you should claim your tracks

[Ankamius]

Titus probably isn't the optimal lynch today

I don't want to go into more until Titus claims results though

[Ankamius]

because she's the optimal lynch tomorrow

[Ankamius]

Yeah I got tired switching back and forth with the alt and stuff so here I am guys.

hi!

[Ankamius]

that's a good point actually

[Ankamius]

well

actually I don't think it clears gamma

it more depends on what happens tonight

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Mathblade

Im really looking forward to your explanation why this slot isnt simply a werewolf Ank

honestly

call it a soul read

[Ankamius]

you realize that the yuurei slot was a MAFIA traitor right?

[Ankamius]

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

I'm obvtown dude

[Ankamius]

in what fucking universe does scum hard-block a lynch on Oath and then try to kill them

that's idiotic

[Ankamius]

...and how does mathblade know that yuurei-slot is non-human as a wolf

[Ankamius]

plus gamma still isn't confirmed since creature, a flipped human, was recruited in there night one

[Ankamius]

unless it blocks the recruit too, but I distantly remember it specifically being said to apply only to the kill?

[Ankamius]

the thing is, vecna

I'm having trouble fitting mathblade into a functional wolfteam without having to brute force really bizarre theories to it

[Ankamius]

like I'm actually struggling to see how mathblade can be scum without both oath and hebi being his partners and they intertwine so awkwardly that it's hard to believe that a scumteam of those three people would act the way they do with an RC-tunnel on mathblade and knowledge that there are kills outside of their faction avaialble

[Ankamius]

I can't see hebi and math BOTH being wolves

that means the vampire faction does exist and oath's role is confirmed AND makes sense as being a vampire

[Ankamius]

it works because that means there's a good chunk of town that have to play to survive

it means false positives

[Ankamius]

this setup is so fucking awkward

[Ankamius]

this setup is fucking awkward mainly because I think the way to solve the game for town is to figure out who the mafia and 3Ps are as well as the wolves

yet the mafia and 3Ps have a vested interest in town not figuring out who they are while also themselves trying to figure out who wolves are

[Ankamius]

mafia and 3p need to hide because they need to survive as well as kill the wolves

[Ankamius]

I wasn't fakeclaiming, I'm a human vanilla

[Ankamius]

considering 1/3 of the playerlist is flipped town, I think it's pretty safe to say there is very few town left yes

[Ankamius]

titus needs to claim results asap

[Ankamius]

I wasn't fakeclaiming, I'm a human vanilla

Cmon now Ankamius, we all know this isnt true

what do you think I am

[Ankamius]

definition was probably trolling

[Ankamius]

not until gamma comes in and gives his account at least

[Ankamius]

This conversation isn't happening, right?

[Ankamius]

Please tell me I haven't woken up yet

[Ankamius]

Why did I have to read five pages of TvT death tunneling crap

While Titus pops in and effectively says no to revealing her results

[Ankamius]

I was considering replacing yesterday but now I might anyways if we are just going to spend pages upon pages spamming about this when it's obvious Vecna is town and it's becoming more and more convoluted to fit mathblade into a scumteam

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Titus

I don't see a reason for this slot to be slow rolling results

Claim results or die

[Ankamius]

does anyone still have any misconceptions that mafia shouldn't be claiming mafia today

[Ankamius]

hebi and titus are probably opposite alignment scum

[Ankamius]

we're running pretty low on people who could be wolves, hebi

[Ankamius]

I wouldn't have played the game like this if I was a wolf, hebi

[Ankamius]

and you are wrong on two of your other reads so

[Ankamius]

Ank forgive me for suggesting this

What if we are in another Undertale?

I'd quit mafia again

[Ankamius]

I'm town
Vecna is town
Gamma is probably town
Oath is vampire
Mathblade is vampire
zMuffinMan is mafia

Titus + you + Nosferatu + Toranaga are all mafia or wolves from where I'm standing

[Ankamius]

(by the way there's a damn good reason I wanted Titus to out her results first

because her claim is suspicious as all fuck and I don't believe in the slightest that she actually has some sort of tracking ability)

[Ankamius]

it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for any alignment to have a pt checker

[Ankamius]

oh don't worry that was me all the way through day 3

[Ankamius]

the only way I could see you lying about your role is if you're a wolf with Vecna and zMuffinMan

and that team runs into the "extreme convoluted gambit" problem

[Ankamius]

who knows why muffin does what he does

[Ankamius]

full claim your results, titus

[Ankamius]

interesting

[Ankamius]

No, I think this is actually enough to solve the game

I'm just interested in how people respond so I can narrow down the possibilities to one

[Ankamius]

(such as muffin and Nos, I'm most interested in their takes)

[Ankamius]

Titus are you town or mafia

[Ankamius]

I am pretty sure I know the identity of the other mafia

[Ankamius]

Is it possible both Titus and hebi are wolves?

HMMMMMMMMM

[Ankamius]

Then I'm wrong about muffin being mafia and he's just a wolf most likely

[Ankamius]

What are you thinking is the solve hebi

[Ankamius]

Nos

Are you mafia

[Ankamius]

Who is your partner?

[Ankamius]

Oh what

Huh.

[Ankamius]

That changes a lot of things

[Ankamius]

Muffin is probably the third wolf then

[Ankamius]

I'll need to parse this I think, only one mafia unclears Vecna

[Ankamius]

Is it possible we have four wolves?

[Ankamius]

Math claimed Vampire

[Ankamius]

Mafia is basically a survivor anti-wolf vig + survivor anti-wolf informed back up vig

Vampire is whatever the fuck is going on with the vampires

[Ankamius]

ZMuffinMan + hebichan + Toranaga + Vecna

Does that work as a team? Any glaring flaws?

[Ankamius]

Yes? Why not?

[Ankamius]

Have people figured out hebi is basically confscum yet

[Ankamius]

What's stopping muffin from being a wolf rolecop

[Ankamius]

Btw

Toranaga is probably the wolf roleblocker

[Ankamius]

Who else would it be

[Ankamius]

You think it's possible hebi is going to flip town?

[Ankamius]

No to lynching hebi

We should be neutralizing the roleblock asap

[Ankamius]

Plus when we have two separate kills, we should use one on the confscum and use the lynch on someone that will give the most info on the setup

[Ankamius]

No to lynching hebi

We should be neutralizing the roleblock asap

Why? Oath is confirmed town aligned by Gamma and me.
Gamma and I lynch confirms Gamma town.

Oath was probably blocked n2

[Ankamius]

if tora is the roleblock he can't stop me from killing him

The third wolf can be the RB too, it's just not very likely to be hebi

Oath is effectively a cop too if we lynch the roleblocker

[Ankamius]

And im stating all this knowing full well theres still a decent change that Math + Ank are in fact wolves together here. But whatever, im not anywhere near certain enough to pursue that now.

I can't emulate this as scum

No fucking way

[Ankamius]

town might get endgamed here though,

there's like what 2/3 of you guys left?

You have a vested interest in the roleblocker being lynched today, Nos

Glowball can't block the kill otherwise

[Ankamius]

You aren't getting it Nos

If Oath isn't blocked, she has a chance of blocking the wolf kill

[Ankamius]

I'm not 100% sure how to proceed with that, honestly

Tora was around in the site earlier and didn't check in

[Ankamius]

It's like what we predicted, Nos

Towns best tools were in the 3ps

[Ankamius]

Huh? Can you unpack what you mean math?

[Ankamius]

Um math

Read HWS flip again

[Ankamius]

We're solving the setup

[Ankamius]

We would've planned this whole thing out to the letter if we were scum together LOL

[Ankamius]

This is why I never crumb anything

[Ankamius]

Where is our logic wrong then

[Ankamius]

I suggested it first math

[Ankamius]

I think we would feel better if we lynched the wolves

[Ankamius]

The wolves might not like that but who cares what they think

[Ankamius]

I want to hear a chorus of death howls followed by a fireworks display saying "TOWN WINS" tonight

[Ankamius]

Goddamn it, if you have two people claiming guilties on one another you dont lynch elsewhere and risk lynching more town.

Game gets solved if we both die, just let this happen.

this is false

[Ankamius]

the funny thing about dichotomies like this

is that it's a valid choice to not resolve it and start flipping other scum

then deciding based on which scum have flipped

[Ankamius]

the best part is that the town person in that dichotomy is immune to death or the scum person gets powerlynched

[Ankamius]

tbh I just want to lynch the wolves

[Ankamius]

LYNCH THE WOLVES

[Ankamius]

idk

[Ankamius]

that slot has done the equivalent of jack and shit all game

and people were so up math's ass and oath's ass that nobody really cared

[Ankamius]

LYNCH THE WOLVES

[Ankamius]

VOTE: The Wolves

[Ankamius]

[Ankamius]

who are the wolves then

[Ankamius]

No

[Ankamius]

idk

hi
fucking ass off with your "tor is better cos it can generate associatives to solve the dichotomy" if this is your response to what tor scumflip means

Why so aggressive

Can't we just lynch the wolves

[Ankamius]

What's wrong with it

[Ankamius]

What's wrong with it

Imagine you are scum.
Imagine if Lady Angel claimed Day One to hard townfirm Nos.
Town lynches Lady Angel per the plan
Scum have to contend with an unlynchable unkillable unblockable vigilante.

What would scum have? An atom bomb?

Um...

Yeah... I'm starting to see why you're being scumread the way you are

[Ankamius]

Did you realize hebi is near confscum

[Ankamius]

indeed

gamma could also be scum

Apparently the neighborhood doesn't work without town in it and if Gamma isn't town, then...

[Ankamius]

indeed

gamma could also be scum

Apparently the neighborhood doesn't work without town in it and if Gamma isn't town, then...

Doesn’t work without humans.
I am still town aligned and therefore all intents and purposes town.

The fuck?

[Ankamius]

Did Math just scum slip?

[Ankamius]

Oh right, neighborhood ceases to work if there's no human left

[Ankamius]

Oh wait a minute now I see what he said

No that isn't a scum slip

[Ankamius]

actually, this makes things simple

if neighbourhood cant shoot tonight, gamma is confirmed scum

Creature didn't start in the hood

It was Math + Gamma + Lady Angel

[Ankamius]

Haaaaaa I didn't know Gamma was Aronis..or at least it slipped my mind.

Still doesn't explain the weird result and the fact that Gamma didn't feel lethargic. Maybe I can't repeat targets?

What result did you get every night up until now?

[Ankamius]

I had that same thought about it only affecting the kills

But the impression I'm getting now is that it can't recruit either, it just ends up bricked

[Ankamius]

It sounds to me like you hit a passive on hebi n2 and got blocked n3

[Ankamius]

Guessing yes

Different results means something changed between how your ability resolved both nights

[Ankamius]

If there is a passive on Hebi it would also invalidate Titus' result though

I'm curious, how does this conclusion necessarily follow?

[Ankamius]

...

[Ankamius]

No?

Human = Green Town the way this is set up

[Ankamius]

Mafia = Red Town
Vampire = ??? Town

[Ankamius]

Look at all the flips again

Human is listed as an alignment and doesn't show up anywhere else in the PMs we have

It also doesn't show up in the mafia flip and the angel flip specifically says they are part of the green faction but aren't human

Mafia are not human.

[Ankamius]

What are you hebi

[Ankamius]

Thanks Nos

I wanted to see what she'd claim

[Ankamius]

Maybe I wanted her to claim it a fifth or sixth time

[Ankamius]

...Never mind.

[Ankamius]

I don't really know what to say

Other than just trust me on it since stuff about the setup that I've pointed out has pretty much universally been proven true

[Ankamius]

It's listed the way an alignment normally would be

Angel wins alongside them but is specifically noted they are not human.

Mafia role PM doesn't have human in the name of the role nor anywhere in the role pm.

You could argue that it's a traitor-unique thing, but...

I think im missing your point Ank. The take-away is that Gamma has been the only human in there untill creature got invited.

Human + mafia + vampire, or so the story goes

i would think that mafia count as humans

...this doesn't indicate that there is a relevant difference just because he happens to be the primary member.

[Ankamius]

well yes, faction probably is an easier way of understanding it

[Ankamius]

lynched oath

[Ankamius]

There you go

Proof that Gamma is town

[Ankamius]

town = human + mafia + vampie

[Ankamius]

I don't understand

[Ankamius]

can I prod dodge the rest of the day

[Ankamius]

math

I don't understand how you can be so blatantly wrong and still town

[Ankamius]

this game is undertale levels of draining

[Ankamius]

I give up

[Ankamius]

Titus where is your head at right now?

I need some sanity in my life or I'm going to start babbling like a toddler

[Ankamius]

Who else can I turn to anymore

[Ankamius]

just screwing around until we decide to lynch someone random

[Ankamius]

TITUS DISAPPEARING IS REALLY NICE THOUGH

THANKS MASTINA

[Ankamius]

IT'S NOT MASTINA'S FAULT BUT IT'S TOTALLY MASTINA'S FAULT

[Ankamius]

I don't but I also have been a pessimist regarding this game for the last two months or so

[Ankamius]

see even the wolves want us to lynch the wolves

[Ankamius]

One funny role for this game would be a role that commutes your target's target

[Ankamius]

NP muffin

Anything for you

[Ankamius]

S U P E R N A T U R A L

~~~OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO~~~

scaaaaaaaaaryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[Ankamius]

I'M

MAD

[Ankamius]

IT'S LIKE

I'M NOT A WOLF
NOSFERATU IS NOT A WOLF
TITUS IS NOT A WOLF
GLOWBALL IS NOT A WOLF
GAMMA EMERALD IS NOT A WOLF

THE ONLY THING STOPPING THIS FROM BEING AN EZ WOLF LOSS IS WHATEVER MANIPULATION PR THEY HAVE

AND FOR SOME REASON PEOPLE THINKING THAT ONE OF THE ABOVE FIVE IS NOT CONFIRMED NOT A WOLF

[Ankamius]

technically I'm not confirmed to be town but in what fucking universe am I a wolf just by play

[Ankamius]

speaking of which what were the full claims today

[Ankamius]

im gonna laugh so hard when you flip wolf lmao

THAT WOULD LITERALLY BE A CASE

OF ME HARD CARRYING TOWN TO A TOWN WIN

AND TOWN FUCKING IT UP SO HARD THAT WOLVES WIN ANYWAYS

[Ankamius]

SCUM HAS A LIGHTNING ROD WITH:

TWO SEPARATE KILLING ABILITIES
A PT COP
A TRACKER
A JAILKEEPER
A DOCTOR

THIS IS THE LEAST ELEGANT THING A SCUMTEAM COULD HAVE

[Ankamius]

PLUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE CLAIMS OF PLAYERS BEING UNABLE TO USE THEIR ABILITIES ONCE PER NIGHT WHILE EVERYBODY ELSE IS ABLE TO USE THEIR ABILITY FINE

A+ LIGHTNING ROD

[Ankamius]

OH TOWN WOULD ALSO HAVE A SEER TOO SO CONGRATS ON CONFIRMING YOURSELF SCUM, LIGHTNING ROD

[Ankamius]

HEBICHAN IS BASICALLY CONFIRMED SCUM
TORANAGA NOT BEING AROUND AT SUCH A CRITICAL TIME IS SUSPICIOUS AS EVERLOVING FUCK

VECNA AND ZMUFFINMAN ARE PROBABLY THE SAME ALIGNMENT IF I HAD TO GUESS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MUFFINMAN BEING SCUM AND VECNA BEING TOWN

SO MATHBLADE FILLS IN THE LAST SLOT

HEBICHAN > TORANAGA > MATHBLADE > ZMUFFINMAN > VECNA

THERE'S THE MOST LIKELY TO LEAST LIKELY WOLF POOL

CAN WE PLAY IT OUT NOW OR SHOULD WE ARGUE NONSENSE FOR ANOTHER 20 PAGES

[Ankamius]

alright I'm going to sleep good night everyone <3

[Ankamius]

the last time you played with me was before my hormones were balanced out vecna