Witches' Halloween Ball [Game Over]

[Moment]

I've been looking over some of the old dances since my /in, and wow, this game is different. Cool, though!

Is that so? From what I remember it seems relatively similar. What's different?

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But im most likely never gonna be obvtown nor in a "unequestionably TvT" pairing so I figured why not.

I just survived to endgame as scum, that doesnt happen to someone "easy to read"

Asking someone to dance who hasn't even posted yet is a questionable decision regardless of whether or not you meet the criteria for some optimal pairing. What about thinking you won't be widely townread leads to the conclusion of immediately asking someone to dance? Even further, I wouldn't take that last game as a real example of anything - from memory, you were pretty widely townread in Minuet's Trio and Forgotten Hourglass.

---

I'm leaning Gamma Emerald and Sakura scum for now. It's slightly bothering me that people aren't seeming to take this seriously - even if you don't care about winning, you don't have to sabotage everyone else's chances of winning.

[Moment]

Then we pair the remaining groups wiht the following values in mind:

Most townie remaining Lady -> Least Townie remaining Gent

by definition it'll create some TvT pairings but I think more importantly, it allows for us to put high trust targets with low trust targets. I also considered doing like 3 bad with bads for them to agree to die, but basically we need to have pairings where we can read them while also relying that there is a solid town person able to leave the dance if necessary.

I don't entirely understand this. What is the benefit of having it such that people can leave the dance? Wouldn't it be better to simply have the least townread people pair together and lynch them to kill two birds with one stone, so to speak? Killing a townread player along with a scummier player seems plainly suboptimal compared to the alternative.

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People, be less boring

This post, plus other earlier posts reads like someone who drew scum and is really fucking excited about it. Anyone know if this player hates to be scum or anything that would preclude this tone read?

Why drew scum and is excited over simply being excited in general?

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DVa is town

Why? I don't find anything particularly towny about the throwing out of all of those early reads.

[Moment]

It's slightly bothering me that people aren't seeming to take this seriously - even if you don't care about winning, you don't have to sabotage everyone else's chances of winning.

Who's trying to sabotage here?

Perhaps "sabotage" was a bit dramatic a term, but I just mean taking actions that don't seem very well thought out. Asking someone to dance just because "why not?" is just like voting someone to lynch just because "why not?".

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I've been looking over some of the old dances since my /in, and wow, this game is different. Cool, though!

Is that so? From what I remember it seems relatively similar. What's different?

Several lynches per day, only 1 night kill, roster of all lovers, lynches not resetting deadline, etc.

These rules are nothing like the way I'm used to playing.

Ah, different from regular games of mafia - I thought you meant different from the previous dances.

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This doesn’t feel right to me. He seems to be trying to subvert the argument.

Elaborate on what exactly it is you mean by "subvert the argument".

[Moment]

Because what happens when you pair a bunch of low fruit with other low fruit is that people get it in their head that you're wrong about those low fruit, the low fruit won't agree to pair and what ends up happening is they take down a bunch of non-low fruit with them.

It's better to high low pair because the odds that all the low hanging fruit are scum is low. Additionally, since we're making a buffer zone for a couple of the most obivous T+T pairings, it's important as the game goes on and votes get lower, the ability to suicide leave the game. It's very important.

Implicit in your argument is presumption that your reads will be wrong and that a player that you consider strongly town will be scum, and thus you should play to that expectation. To that I would say that I don't think it makes sense to begin from the idea that your reads are wrong - it makes more sense to begin with lynching your scumreads. Should

that

fail, then there may be cause for concern and at that point it would be time to begin looking in the pairs previously more townread. Beginning with trying to lynch both the "scummy scum" and the "towny scum" by pairing them together seems destined to simply sacrifice a townier player for every scummier player we lynch.

Of course, this is quite abstract and a level removed from the actual people pairing together and playing the game, but on a theory level I don't think it's correct.

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One is a tone read, I don't have a reason for thinking that beyond it just being an explanation of his(Karmelon) posts that fits well. Additionally, it doubled as an ability to draw aggro and reactions from him that would influence my read more. As you can see, he's become much more obviously scum post my pressure on him.

Perhaps I need to get my vision checked, then.

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Asking someone to dance who hasn't even posted yet is a questionable decision regardless of whether or not you meet the criteria for some optimal pairing. What about thinking you won't be widely townread leads to the conclusion of immediately asking someone to dance? Even further, I wouldn't take that last game as a real example of anything - from memory, you were pretty widely townread in Minuet's Trio and Forgotten Hourglass.

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I'm leaning Gamma Emerald and Sakura scum for now. It's slightly bothering me that people aren't seeming to take this seriously - even if you don't care about winning, you don't have to sabotage everyone else's chances of winning.

Case in point

You're gonna have to elaborate what point you're trying to make there.

[Moment]

I don't explain town reads, it's anti town.

Wait is this true or theory?

It's simply her opinion. I would disagree myself, in almost every situation I can think of.

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You're gonna have to elaborate what point you're trying to make there.

The point that im not gonna be obvtown nor gonna be some of those supertown TvT pairings.

And so explain to me how that thought (whether it's true or not) leads to the conclusion "I should pair with someone whose alignment I have literally random information regarding"? Assuming you're town, of course.

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This game would have been more fun to spectate, to be honest.

I'll be back later when I care more about analyzing than laughing at some of the things that's been said so far.

Scum equity, here.

I disagree. I would come to the exact opposite conclusion, actually.

[Moment]

LLD, would you mind explaining to me what's "obviously scum" about Karmeleon's response in 106?

[Moment]

Breeding apathy, no spice... why do you townread that post?

"Breeding apathy"? I think your thoughts of how scum play are far too grand. I think very infrequently do scum actually have some kind of master plan like that, and even if they did I sincerely doubt that it would take the form of a single two line post among a sea of other spam. I think if you consider the mindset behind that post, it shows an element of frustration; Brian thinks that one or more of us are being stupid and doesn't exactly want to jump into the thread. Dealing with people who you think are being stupid is often a chore as town, but as scum can give you the opportunity to be LAMIST, to over-explain things, and to basically write a lot of words without really having to come up with anything truly difficult to come up with.

Of course, I wouldn't place a huge amount of strength into a read based on that single post, but in a vacuum I'd say it's more likely to come from town that scum. At the very least, I don't think your reasons for scumreading it are particularly reliable.

[Moment]

Dude joined the site like 2 weeks ago and I don't know his experience level but "I think your thoughts of how scum play are far too grand" is like, not helpful.

Not helpful? I'm explaining my opinion and how it differs from his. Isn't that a large part of this entire game? If my doing that isn't helpful, I would be interested to hear why what I said specifically isn't helpful as compared to anyone else explaining a differing opinion.

Second off, he's right and you're wrong. Scum plan, scum plot, scum have intentions and attack vectors.

I don't disagree. I think a majority of the time scum simply play things "as is", attempting to appear towny and just survive, but yes, sometimes there are specific plans. The point that I was trying to get across there was that I don't think it was correct to see a plot like that in the singular post that he was looking at.

Intentionality and motivation are a huge part of finding scum and rooting them out and the fact that you think that scum creating apathy isn't a weapon in their arsenal, let alone one of their best ones in a game mode like this, then boy have I got a bridge in brooklyn I'd love to sell you.

I think it's entirely possible that scum might try to create apathy in a specific situation. I don't think this is that situation, nor do I think that kind of plan could be seen within a single post - I think it would have to be seen over a period of time.

[Moment]

Here's a better litmus test for Moment.

YO MOMENT.

WHAT ARE YOUR READS, CURRENTLY.

Since you seem to be going around the game and telling everyone their reads are wrong, I should assume you have a bunch of strong town reads ya?

I think Gamma Emerald is likely scum. I thought Sakura was, but I think perhaps I may be putting too much into the random dance invitation. I think shotaru is likely to be town.

Having reads and disagreeing with other people's reasons on reads are two entirely separate things. If someone shared a read that I did for reasons that I thought were wrong or unreliable I wouldn't point it out (unless I believed that those reasons were scum-indicative for the person holding the read), but when it comes to people I either have no opinion on, think otherwise than the person I'm questioning, or simply don't see what might have someone so convinced in a read, then I'll question them and give my own thoughts. I don't think that's a particularly radical idea.

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I think if you consider the mindset behind that post, it shows an element of frustration

Right. I always laugh when I'm frustrated.

Eh, perhaps "frustrated" was the wrong word to represent the feeling I was trying to get across of "not wanting to respond to the thread".

Dealing with people who you think are being stupid is often a chore as town, but as scum can give you the opportunity to be LAMIST, to over-explain things, and to basically write a lot of words without really having to come up with anything truly difficult to come up with.

And was that a subtle jab, I detected?

Not in the slightest.

[Moment]

Fuck I told you guys not to spam
Well I can't catch up til tonight sorry

Now THIS seems like genuine frustration, Moment.

I would agree.

[Moment]

Found the first person I wanna dance with.

Would that be me, or would that be LLD?

[Moment]

I wish I could dance with Maria so I could kill both of us if I thought she was scum and get my revenge for Forgotten Hourglass.

[Moment]

On one hand I'm happy that I have townreads
on the other I'm annoyed it's all ladies because the guys can't town tell to save there god dam life.

To be fair, of the eight gentlemen, four have literally or essentially not posted anything and one is an innocent child.

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And so explain to me how that thought (whether it's true or not) leads to the conclusion "I should pair with someone whose alignment I have literally random information regarding"? Assuming you're town, of course.

If he pairs up with me and i scumread him ill just leave the dance. It's not like im forced to live with him all game.

Do you believe there's any benefit at all to strategic pairing, then? What would be the difference between that and everyone simply pairing randomly in their first post?

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can mala ask kar or sho to dance so I can kill them both.
Or we leave mala out atm.
Either of these please me

What's your read on Gamma Emerald?

[Moment]

I don't like suicide bombing, better to leave lynches to groupthink.

I like the double entendre.

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Oh my god this one is scum too I seriously have been trying to calm myself.

Like

Surely all the scum can't be present early on, we're missing so many people.

But this is.....

Why do you scumread that? It seems a perfectly reasonable thought, to me.

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What's your read on Gamma Emerald?

Before I answer why did you ask me about gamma out of everyone.

Because I scumread him and because, of the three gentlemen who have actually posted content, you didn't include him in who you want Malakittens to ask to the dance so you can kill.

[Moment]

I'm liking Karmeleon a bit better for town now.

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like the double entendre.

That’s not a double entendre

I thought he was trying to say "leave the lynches to the will of the group" when he said groupthink rather than specifically to the psychological concept of groupthink, which would've made it a double entendre. Perhaps not.

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I don't advocate for the use of suicide bombers in every game, either (unless I'm scum as a desperation tactic, perhaps)

I believe she was referring to the risk of being wrong in every mafia game rather than the risk of suicide bombing in every game.

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LLD, what's your read on me currently? You seemed poised for something dramatic with your line of questioning towards me - I'm interested in what you're thinking.

[Moment]

"It seems like a perfectly reasonable thought to me" is exactly why I scum read it.

It's perfectly safe, it's zero risk, it's....

it's scum motivated. it's designed to look townie.

While I don't disagree with you in principle that things like this are often scum-indicative, I feel like you're ignoring something you were just consiering earlier in that shotaru is a relatively newer player. I think taking that into account, it's less scum-indicative than it might be for someone else, if it's even scum-indicative at all.

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did anyone else notice he cut off a relevant part of my post?

I have seen people point to this as a reason why players who use selective quoting are scum. I have never seen it be used as a reason why someone who was actually scum was scum.

[Moment]

SirCakez is gonna be pretty mad

Indeed. I might step away for a while. Perhaps the other ladies should as well, if there's such a consensus that the gentlemen need to talk more?

[Moment]

-confessing now I'm skimming walls this game @moment/LLD

I don't post "walls".

[Moment]

Then we can start by making a couple of T+T by our guesses pairings.

And then pair best with worst on each side.

I still don't understand why you think this, and you haven't responded to what I said about it earlier.

[Moment]

Then we can start by making a couple of T+T by our guesses pairings.

And then pair best with worst on each side.

I still don't understand why you think this, and you haven't responded to what I said about it earlier.

Avoids the scum+scum pairing which I think is the worst attack vector.

I can't imagine why. Shouldn't a scum+scum pairing be easier to lynch than a scum+town pairing?

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I was under the impression that this game is town-sided considering vi haven't seen a scum win yet.

Last time i played this game scum won coz i suicided out of paranoia and screwed a town auto win.

This doesn't affect your mindset of "if Kokichi is scum I can just suicide"?

[Moment]

Why does it always have to take me getting mad and frustrated to townread my towngames.

If it means anything to you, I haven't been considering your early pairing as a scum move for a while now, just one that I couldn't understand.

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i rly like brian skies

Really? I've actually been getting the feeling that he's scum here. At least, he doesn't seem similar at all to any of the games I've played with him where over time it just became apparent that he was town and was never really a question at all.

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I feel moments play here is night and day from BBtag

Well that game he was a traitor. That role is pretty demoralizing.
OTOH I dunno what to think of him, he's been focusing so much on the "lack" of town motivation for my opening move than whether it had any actual scum motivation.

I don't think I've been focusing on that specifically over discussing other things, just commenting on it when it's come up.

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Let me just go through things here.

I think Dunnstral, SirCakez, Karmeleon, and shotaru are town. If other people are confident in their ability to read Kokichi and say that he's town then I'll accept that (while also looking bitterly back at the people who said something similar about Maria in Forgotten Hourglass).
That leaves Gamma and Brian from the Gentlemen.

I don't have reasons to think Maria is town but I haven't noticed her being scum yet. For now I'll take that as her just being town rather than my not reading closely enough to have noticed her being scum. Sakura Hana is town, and ChibiBear seems town to me. Actually, that leaves me with a lot more left over Ladies than I thought. I seem to be the minority opinion when it comes to not townreading DVa (and perhaps LLD?).

[Moment]

I want Sakura Kokichi and Dunn to tell me how they feel about moment because I feel moments play here is night and day from BBtag

I didn't exactly have much "play" there in the first place - sorry about that, by the way.

[Moment]

I think Gamma Emerald is likely scum.

I feel like Moment reminds us that she thinks GE is scum like, every 10 posts of her iso, but hasn't really developed the push much.

idk I also haven't actually explained why I think GE's scum here so glass houses and all that, but I feel like Moment has held GE as scum more consistently but still not developed it (one of the reasons I kinda keep forgetting about her posts, they feel lacking in substance)

What exactly do you mean by "developed"? Yes, I haven't written a case or anything - we can't vote to lynch anyone yet, and it doesn't seem like I'm in the minority in my opinion. At the moment it seems to me like it'd largely be a pointless endeavor. The exact same thing could probably be said about how much I've written regarding most of my townreads.

I'm a bit confused about what exactly you're even scumreading, really.

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I totally forgot moment existed tbh

Yes, unfortunately for some reason I seem to have that effect. Perhaps it's the fact that I don't break all of these into individual posts and so people see less of me spread out across the entire thread.

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I mean I want to be with Fire so that’s fine with me

I would be fine with this pairing.

[Moment]

RC, mind explaining where your townread on Brian is coming from?

[Moment]

I would be fine with this pairing.

Fine with this pairing to be lynched later, if that wasn't clear.

[Moment]

I see that I'm still being ignored. Perhaps I'm invisible.

[Moment]

Great, at least my scumread townreads me. That's comforting.

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Not to put words in your mouth but if I get the implication of your list--you don't want to hurt a lady because you want more content from princess first or something?

I should hope that any dapper Gentleman wouldn't want to hurt a lady for whatever reason.

[Moment]

Nice being invisible, isn't it?

[Moment]

Full disclosure, I've basically only read RC's plan.

Think you can put aside your reservations and dance, SirCakez?

[Moment]

Man, I wish muffins or katsuki were here.

[Moment]

If I'm going to get lynched I'd rather pair up with Gamma so that I can at least feel a little better about it. Maria seemed to want to pair up with Cakez, anyways.

Thoughts on that, RC?

[Moment]

Whatever.

Dance, Karmy?

[Moment]

It was pretty fortunate timing, actually. I don't give a shit what you think I've been doing.