Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[Jingle]

L-2 iirc. But again, it went pretty fast.

[Jingle]

I don't dislike a grapes lynch.

VOTE: Grapes

Full disclosure, I have no idea why we lynched grapes.

Jingle, you're gonna have to reconcile these two posts for me

How were you okay with the lynch and then claimed you didn't know why there was a lynch there? Like, were you just lying in the first post?

I guess if you're apathetic you don't really care who gets lynched but it sounds like you were on board with the lynch for *reasons* and then reversed that stance

I was on board because of a lack of a read. At that point in time I wanted Shoshin to have space to work, and grapes wasn't one of my townreads. It's an attitude of why not.

[Jingle]

all 3 of myself/EE/Jingle were playing a simultaneous game with shoshin where she was scum and all 3 of us agree that she's the same alignment here as she was there.

Clarification, she's playing similarly. I'm not thinking she's lockscum, but she's still the best info lynch, so I don't really care to try to figure that out.

[Jingle]

what's your read on the gamestate atm

Lotsa obvtown, open townsided setup. I'm bored, and have been, and it's gonna get me lynched soon.

[Jingle]

I'm kinda interested in vedith more than shoshin at this point.

VOTE: vedith

[Jingle]

what's your read on the gamestate atm

Lotsa obvtown, open townsided setup. I'm bored, and have been, and it's gonna get me lynched soon.

well ok

what makes shoshin the best info lynch then

Multiple 1v1s and she's been the center of attention for >half the thread time.

[Jingle]

Get back on the wagon, this is just cuz you're bored and you know it.

You're not my robot supervisor.

[Jingle]

In post 2345, Fuscosco wrote:
Okay, what happened between 1552 and now?


Well, first the earth cooled, then the dinosaurs arrived...

But seriously, just go back a few pages and read the summary provided for ank. We're not doing the same thing 15 times.

In post 2306, Extrapolated Eagle wrote:
In post 2303, Prince of Renais wrote:
VOTE: fuscoscos

Sure

What is ur question peasant


what is jingle?


Jingle is a ladderback birch, but his friends call him Karl.

PEdit: I'm not retyping this, and somehow when I hit preview all the text disappeared, so no formatting for you.

[Jingle]

VOTE: fuscusco

L-2 Bitches!




I know someone asked me a question, but I don't remember who or what and I'm not checking.

[Jingle]

boi looks like i placed into a toughie.

then y'all probs won't like what I say when i do sit down here

I'm going to guarantee the prevalent reaction from me will be ambivalence.

[Jingle]

Can we not talk about the possibility of PR scum today? It's just gonna be a distraction.

[Jingle]

VOTE: DDL

This makes me heppy.

[Jingle]

if we're sheeping shoshin's reads we're sheeping her on lycan/clem

Can we do that after we lynch DDL? I really wanna lynch DDL.

[Jingle]

i think that my reads are better than shoshins.
i also think that reiuji's reads are better than shoshins
i don't think that of anyone else in this game.

Plz hard reset. There's a reason you didn't die, and this time it's not that I'm a cheeky scumfuck.

[Jingle]

VOTE: clemency

Weird. Why not me?

[Jingle]

I don't think that a lot of scumteams killed me when keeping me alive reduces the number of necessary mislynches from 6 to 5.

These are all words, but none of them makes sense to me together.

How does not igniting change the mislynches needed math?

[Jingle]

Eh I don't like his current vote.

I'll just not vote.

Whyfore?

[Jingle]

jingle what was your thought process when you initially replaced into the game?

what do you mean?

[Jingle]

Don't really remember, other than annoyance that shoshin was the center of attention.

[Jingle]

Looking at the beginning of my ISO, I think I'm mostly here to shitpost.

Arbitrary townreads on certain players make sense. Ignoring people I know I can't read makes sense. Sheeping someone on a null slot because I didn't want to bother makes sense.

There's honestly not a lot for me to talk about mechanically, so I'm limited to my less reliable skill sets.

[Jingle]

These are all words, but none of them makes sense to me together.

How does not igniting change the mislynches needed math?

about half the thread expressed interest in lynching me eventually at some point during this game.

Bleh. First of all, both of us know that you expect scum to be scared enough of you to prioritize killing you. They're not banking on a mislynch on you saving them the game.

[Jingle]

I decided not to argue the rest of that sentence because you don't threaten to report Shoshin if she's scum if you know she's town.

Ali still town. I want Ank to be town, it makes things easier. Rei town.

More DDL/Jingle votes would be spicy.

[Jingle]

y not?

[Jingle]

Press x to doubt.


More to the point, game is glacial. Why do you oppose wagons to be analyzed?

[Jingle]

I don't think DDL should vote himself regardless of his alignment, and that comparison is at best useless. But being wagoned as town is pretty much the best way to work out people's intentions, cause you ACTUALLY know whether their arguments are bullshit.

[Jingle]

Dont prese x cause I'm town.

More to the point why do you think its glacial? Asking yourself to be voted is no better than the discussion shoshins self vote generated

My guess? Scum aren't working to push a wagon.

*Looks around

Yup. I don't see anyone pushing a wagon. I see people pussyfooting around us. I see people pussyfooting around ClemSlot. I see shade at pretty much half the list. But I don't see any particular pushes.

[Jingle]

Im not feeling DDL scum from his last few posts. Where do u stand on him Eagle?

Why?

[Jingle]

Dont prese x cause I'm town.

More to the point why do you think its glacial? Asking yourself to be voted is no better than the discussion shoshins self vote generated

My guess? Scum aren't working to push a wagon.

*Looks around

Yup. I don't see anyone pushing a wagon. I see people pussyfooting around us. I see people pussyfooting around ClemSlot. I see shade at pretty much half the list. But I don't see any particular pushes.

This is a very accurate representation of the current game.

This is a very accurate impression of empty posting.

[Jingle]

Eh, still top 10% of the class.

[Jingle]

PAGETOP!

[Jingle]

I'm annoyed that this is probably townposting.

[Jingle]

(And, well, I don't feel it anymore either.)

Why?

[Jingle]

Just doesnt seem very scummy. Im not getting hard town vibes, but i dont think hed repeat “im town” over and overas he has been if he werescum tbh. Just seemslike a cop out when i expect more from him.

On the contrary, literally everything I see coming from him is caring how he is percieved. Comparitively, ZoidsBoy seems to not give a shit how he's perceived, if you'd like to see what town not really doing anything looks like.

His push on me 'because Shoshin said so' seems like the most lazily veiled OMGUS of all time on someone who is demonstrably not efforting. Comparitively, Alisae is putting real energy into pushing eir scumread on me. E actually gives a fuck about eir reads, and there's clear thought going into it.

[Jingle]

Oh, btw, if someone thinks Ali scum, compare this to Stellaris.

[Jingle]

i don't think I'll ever be motivated in this game as long as I'm afraid of being scumread if I lead an incorrect lynch.

Hot take: Lynching Shoshin was more townindicative than lynching grapes from you.

[Jingle]

Alisae scum goes hard thats all I know and e def went hard in Stellaris

Exactly.

[Jingle]

i fooled him in LNT and his suspicion of me here just kinda feels genuine
i think both scum are in
liger,

rei

, dann,

jingle

, ddl,

prince

Try again, but this time without the obvtown.

[Jingle]

@NSG I can’t convince myself to get excited or be happy about this game anymore I’m sorry I really don’t want to be that one guy that always replaces out of games they can’t enjoy but I’m replacing out

:sadpanda:

[Jingle]

We talking about me or PR here? Cause PR purty obvtown. And I think I may have forgotten how to play scum with all the stupid town PMs.

[Jingle]

Hey, the last guy who tried to vote me when I was obvtown endgamed the rest of the players after killing me. Wait, what was my point again?

[Jingle]

So X, why not townread PR?

[Jingle]

I did scumread PVT. I scumread PVT post PVT replace.

[Jingle]

i sr one of your posts (cookie if you can identify it)

Intrigued, hold on a mo, I'll find the scummiest post in my ISO.

[Jingle]

These are the posts most likely to come from scum Jingle out of my ISO. Is it one of them?

I promise that's the last question. I'm just curious as to whether I should expect accuracy from you.

Honestly, you not answering doesn't change much.

I believe PR scumreads Shoshin here regardless of both of their alignments for :reasons:, FWIW.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79020 - Only Tryhard post lynch
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=78019 - Not even a real game
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77108 - Broke a setup, should have won after Eragon and thor pushed me into giving a shit by assuming bad math, but the conftown failed to hammer, halving our EV and forcing the tie
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=77420 - about a third of my posts here (and in the mason thread) were demands that the mod flip me as Queen Latifah
viewtopic.php?f=94&t=76002 - I spent maybe two pages cementing bad associatives then laid down and died because scum had the game in the bag.







viewtopic.php?f=3&t=78228 - Tryhard in doomed slot
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=78023 - Tryhardish, but I kinda just gave up on pushing scum reads and hammered a townread for game tempo reasons
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=77903 - Tryhard, also fuck playing against shoshin, nsg and relly in a nightless
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=77055 - Mixed bag. Tryhard mechanically, but I straight up didn't give a shit as soon as the game looked over. (Read: mechanical 1v1 with the last scum). Proven by the fact that I didn't even double check who submitted an action when and thought I was in an additional 1v1 with Beavis and Butthead avvy guy whose name escapes me. Starts with a V I think.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=76181 - Another mixed bag. I was supposed to low effort this game, but I spent a lot of time fighting RC. And then got shot when I paid enough attention to actually be useful the night after investigative RC got shot. This is half of the reason I didn't /in for this when asked by Ali, btw, although this game tells me me and RC can not be dicks to each other, so I'm not going to avoid games with him.
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=74422 - I tryharded the shit out of D1. And led three consecutive town lynches. Unfortunately, I was town.
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=76042 - I tryharded the shit out of this whole game and would have won if Ank didn't replace lynchbait and RNG didn't hate me.


There, every game Jingle played in on the first page of my bookmarks tab.

Press x to doubt.


More to the point, game is glacial. Why do you oppose wagons to be analyzed?

[Jingle]

Huh. Which one is it?

[Jingle]

fiiiiiiiine. here it is. you dismissing mechanics in favour of a superficial tr pinged me super hard.

Isn't Thigh Draug Draug's wife? Coulda sworn he's married to Nephenee in Path of Radiance.

Oh. Well, then, you're wrong. I don't wrong setup spec as scum. If I setup spec, I believe in that setup spec. (Or, more accurately, I believe that expressing specifically that setup spec is protown.)

[Jingle]

Fuscosco(9) ~ Alisae(101), Reiuji Utsuho(86), Dannflor(117), NerfedBuJ(23), Extrapolated Eagle(133), Liger_Zero(8), Jingle(111), Prince of Renais(146), Ankamius(47) -- HAMMER

[Jingle]

holy shit i just realized how many people got replaced. Why did Shoshin, Lycan, and Gamma all get replaced?

Shoshin ragequit, the other two flaked. Gamma at least was a sitewide flake due to moving.

[Jingle]

@buj. I get your analogy now. Sorry for calling it crap I just didnt understand it previously, but now I think I agree with it, although not to 100 percent certainty.

I know you said not 100 percent here but what made you lose the townread?

@Jingle - let me get this straight, Ali is an amazing town player, and an amazing scum player but if e goes at it hard e's scum and if e doesn't e's town? Wouldn't such a polar meta make her bad at both alignments?

I love when people try to use disinterest as a town tell but don't accept it when others use it as a scum tell.

E rolled shitty partners and er good friend replaced out of the game. E doesn't think E can win and E isn't having any fun, and the playerlist has changed. I think I'm right in saying that Ali is a player that takes playerlist into account when she joins games, so it makes sense that replacements could affect er mood and it's NAI. In this game there is 0 indication that she's town. You want to tear my scum case apart go right ahead and give it a try. Disagree with me. But don't fool yourself into thinking she has towntold. A bloody nullread is more believable.

You're kinda missing the whole point. Alisae was scum in Stellaris at the same time she was playing this game. At the same time as FA was here, Ali was shooting FA in the other game. At the same time the whole Shoshin drama was happening, Joan of Arc drama was happening in Stellaris. And, through all of this, her motivation and energy here is way way way less than it was there.

Admittedly, it's not a perfect comparison. There's a lot more setup information to go over in that game. She had Junko as a scum PT partner, and they talked a lot. But the difference in motivation is more stark than I would expect given that the difference in playerlist boils down to one friend.


Also, the loltunnel on me when the only thing Ali's seen of me is mod thread and people saying I'm good is >>rand town, but :shrug:

0% interested in an Ali lynch here.

[Jingle]

Here's roughly where I am at:

Town
Dannflor replaced DoubtingThomas
Reiuji Utsuho
Xtoxm *
Karmeleon *
NerfedBuJ
Extrapolated Eagle
Alisae

Null
Prince of Renais replaced PvtUrist
mcqueen
MaxwellPuckett replaced Clemency *
Liger_Zero replaced Gamma Emerald **

Scummy
Jingle replaced Frozen Angel
Vedith
Ankamius replaced Lycanfire *

This looks fake AF.

[Jingle]

Xtoxm is scum

Tell me more, tell me more.

[Jingle]

Idk why youre so worried abt being mislynched I can only guess it almost happened earlier

Narp, it's just how he is.

[Jingle]

I reaaaaally want a DDL lynch.

Like a lot.

[Jingle]

Lets play the preflip associatives game.

Not scum Ever:
Prince of Renais
Alisae
Karmeleon
Reiuji Utsuho


Remaining Contestants:
Ankamius
Liger_Zero
Dannflor
NerfedBuJ
MaxwellPuckett
Extrapolated Eagle
DrDolittle
Vedith
mcqueen
Xtoxm

Ank and EE aren't scum together.
L0 and MP aren't scum together.

[Jingle]

Spoiler:

Grapes wagon is just eh.

Anyways I'm voting from folks off the grapes wagon today. Hammer came too fast and I think scum could possibly hope for wiggling out of getting grapes lynched

You should vote jingle. Shoshin is pretty good at this game and I can sheep her knowing shes town

It's the mechanically correct play if unless you think your reads are better than shoshin. Plus with the mechanics of the game, theres no additional information from night anyhow

Here's roughly where I am at:

Town
Dannflor replaced DoubtingThomas
Reiuji Utsuho
Xtoxm *
Karmeleon *
NerfedBuJ
Extrapolated Eagle
Alisae

Null
Prince of Renais replaced PvtUrist
mcqueen
MaxwellPuckett replaced Clemency *
Liger_Zero replaced Gamma Emerald **

Scummy
Jingle replaced Frozen Angel
Vedith
Ankamius replaced Lycanfire *

What is there to townread?

[Jingle]

NerfedBuJ

Why?

[Jingle]

DDL not scum with Vedith or Buj.

[Jingle]

Actually, that's a three way. it's TTS or TTT, there's max one scum in that triad.

[Jingle]

Hello, new Alisae. Your job is to tunnel me and be ineffective.

[Jingle]

mcqueen town for 1355/1356

[Jingle]

No, it's okay. You also get to meme.

[Jingle]

Well, solve the game and you can go home.

[Jingle]

Ank not scum with DDL.

[Jingle]

I'm here to play the game--not to tunnel someone. Why are you here?

To tunnel people. Also there was this cool thing earlier where we were quoting old songs. That was fun.

[Jingle]

NerfedBuJ

Why?

He was a counterwagon to scumgrapes.

Not really tho. He was two vanity votes that existed long before the grapes wagon was a thing. Shoshin was more of a counterwagon than he was.

Which is why I said he's not scum with the peeps who were on that vanity wagon.

I don't think he's high equity, but he's not on the never touch list imo.

[Jingle]

Ank not scum with DDL.

i told you im not scum period

So are you scum without period?

I'll give it a 6/10 on the pedantic assery scale.

Would have been better if you mentioned that his name was DDL, not period. Would have been even better if you had used an alternative meaning of the word period, perhaps asking if he was in his blue period or abstract period instead.

Still, your witty reparte shows effort. Keep up the work.

[Jingle]

Hmmm. Bearman has a lot of not scum with evidence.

VOTE: Dannflor

Fallback tunnel it is.

[Jingle]

Full disclosure, I have no idea why we lynched grapes.

Even before I caught up with the game, I would have lynched him just for #1353.

In this post he:

- Forces an awkward transition from Buj to Eagle

- Gives unsubstantiated town reads to three of the people pushing him

- Ignores the

actual

worst vote on his own wagon

#####

Side note: If anyone still didn't think Jingle was obv town the above post should convince you. Scum would be milking all the town cred they could get out of being on their buddy's wagon, especially considering this game has 3 scum and one of them dropped Day 1. Scums are in a bad spot. If a scum bussed here (which I think is possible), they did so to set themselves up in a better position later. Jingle is actively working against this scum win condition.

Scum post.

Your catchup and the subsequent townreads mirrors No deadlines almost perfectly.
You scumcased the dead player, did not vote the dead player, and then said that scum on the dead player's wagon would probably grab for towncred by explaining their reads as opposed to sheeping.
You handwaved the bit about DDL by saying Vedith was doing the same thing then deciding Vedith was town after Karm weighed in without actually addressing the bit about DDL.
You seem overconcerned about how people see you.

A hint: engaging me over you isn't a good way to get me to change my read. Engaging me over not you might work though.

[Jingle]

@DDL: What say you?

Here's roughly where I am at:

Town
Dannflor replaced DoubtingThomas
Reiuji Utsuho
Xtoxm *
Karmeleon *
NerfedBuJ
Extrapolated Eagle
Alisae

Null
Prince of Renais replaced PvtUrist
mcqueen
MaxwellPuckett replaced Clemency *
Liger_Zero replaced Gamma Emerald **

Scummy
Jingle replaced Frozen Angel
Vedith
Ankamius replaced Lycanfire *

This looks fake AF.

[Jingle]

Oh, also, there's reason to believe posting might be scum indicative for DT that I'm not gonna talk about rn.

[Jingle]

Cause your null is the lurkers + the guy who led on scum and your scumreads are shoshin's scumreads - the guy who led on scum. And I can't remember a single reason you've stated for any of your townreads.

[Jingle]

well youre wrong. like if im going to fake something id fake it better than 3064

DDL has lots of practice faking it.

[Jingle]

I am largely on the fence about Xtox. I think this is the third game I've been in with him. This is the first game I haven't immediately thought he was scum.

[Jingle]

For clarification, I do not oppose an X lynch in largely the same way I didn't oppose a grapes lynch. I just feel way better about lynching someone whose name starts with D.

[Jingle]

Who are you leading on?

[Jingle]

Oh yeah, Enter's breakdown in BoP 2 scumthread reinforces my EE townread here.

[Jingle]

Is it though?

[Jingle]

Why are we lynching xtoxm?

[Jingle]

More relevantly, will you explore people whose name begins with D with me tomorrow if I sheep you today?

[Jingle]

I'm not sure why you're assuming EE is right.

This could easily be PR having seen something and slowrolling the reveal to see who jumps at shinies.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Xtox

ngl, I still like my other wagon and I will totes hammer there if you build it, but apparently I missed a bunch of PR posts and I can grok it.

[Jingle]

I feel conflicted that other people are agreeing with past Jingle. On the one hand, I like all of these options. On the other hand, there's too many options I like.

[Jingle]

DrD is there a reason you were much more agressive and generally more emotional in that town game we won compared to this game, or is it just when I personally push you all of that comes out?

Like I've been ignoring that the entire game and trying to look at your posts objectively and I want you to tell me why I'm not wrong to townread you despite that.

please read this game and tell me how to be emotional

Self vote, get into an argument, and replace out.

[Jingle]

You don't have to self vote if someone else does it first.

[Jingle]

Btw DDL/xtoxm has a lot of equity

Also DDL/dannflor.

[Jingle]

Btw DDL/xtoxm has a lot of equity

Also DDL/dannflor.

Wouldn't xtoxm be the more obvious counter wagon vote here?

Probably?

But earlier when I was pushing both of them they just kind of ignored each other awkwardly.

[Jingle]

Why don't setups allow for vote proxying anymore?

[Jingle]

Can we not focus on a pissing match rn? It really doesn't matter who is right or wrong. If the fight happens, everyone loses.

[Jingle]

Huh. That's not what I expected the VC to look like.

[Jingle]

Xtoxm

(4) ~

mcqueen

(19),

Prince of Renais

(65),

Vedith

(18),

Jingle

(77)

Ankamius

(3) ~

Karmeleon

(85),

Dannflor

(30),

DrDolittle

(66)

Vedith

(2) ~

Liger_Zero

(52),

NerfedBuJ

(21)

Dannflor

(2) ~

Extrapolated Eagle(65), Ankamius(67)

Prince of Renais

(1) ~

Xtoxm

(13)

mcqueen(1) ~ MaxwellPuckett(33)

MaxwellPuckett

(1) ~

Reiuji Utsuho

(54)

DrDolittle

(1) ~

RAS

(32)

Vague feels

[Jingle]

eh, MP probs switched with Buj, color wise.

[Jingle]

I really don't like p125 in general

But I was 20% of that page!

My heart, she breaks.

[Jingle]

I don't think that's even a townslip though, tbh.

VOTE: DDL

[Jingle]

They're both Who alts.

[Jingle]

Who?

Exactly.

[Jingle]

look if you believe i made a dumb mistake then im town.

No. I see absolutely no reason town would be more likely to make that mistake than scum. The mistake itself is NAI.

Jingle engage me here, why is Anka and mcqueen green for you

mcqueen is town because he's an outsource read and no one has given a reason to lynch him. People have danced around saying 'well maybe' but there's been no actual reason.

Ank has been syncing up on a couple thoughts and her interactions with EE feel like town ank.

Why are you not interested in either of the not you options I'm okay with?

[Jingle]

No. I see absolutely no reason town would be more likely to make that mistake than scum. The mistake itself is NAI.

Jingle
You think scum doesn't know their own dousing mechanic, and if they are unsure
they wouldnt ask mod that the first thing?

You didn't sound unsure. You sounded like you'd made a faulty assumption. And in my experience modding, it's far more likely for someone to attempt to use the ability the way they assume it works than seek clarification.

[Jingle]

Should I bother reading the stuff I missed?

[Jingle]

Dammit, that's like half the words I didn't want to read.

Agree wrt Ank.
L0 kinda lazy read.
Ali obvtown.
Y is that a townslip on Rei
Buj read very blegh.
MP could be scum if I'm wrong. Someone should check the accusation and get back to me.
Jingle read interesting. I think talking about Jingle is the best possible use of time.
EE I want to call this lazy, but bleh. It's pretty much the same effort I'd put into that read.
DDL- Tell me more, tell me more.
Ved Eh. Mebbe.
PoR is bleh. Right conclusion, wrong method. Shows both a lack of paranoia in his analysis of Prince's posts and a lack of knowledge of how Prince plays scum.
MickyQ is BoP-y and I don't think MickyQ is a BoP player.
X read icky. Fence impressions on asses and excuses aside, preflip association to MP gross. Null read but the only point brought up about him is a town one.
Karma Karma Karma Karma Karma Karmeleon: He comes and goes.


High scum partner equity w/ X and DDL. 3266 supports this.

[Jingle]

X is Xtoxm

w/ is a standard abbreviation for with.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Xtoxm

Based purely on wagon comp I'm not feeling an L0 lynch.

[Jingle]

Fun with math:

Feel free to correct me if I made a mistake.

15 alive.
13:2 town:scum ratio

3 conftown players,
Leaves us with 10:2
We can afford 5 mislynches in the worst case scenario.

We will assume the following in order to calculate the odds in terms of worst case scenario, because anything else would only give us an even higher probability of winning.

Assumptions:
-People that are doused are never lynched
-Scum do not ignite within the suspect list until they can win (this makes the odds of hitting scum less, though we will still assume that we don't hit a doused player, because we are basing this on a 5 mislynch capacity, lynching a doused player would be an extra mislynch)

Odds of scum not getting lynched if random lynching (while avoiding doused players):

Day 3 (5 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 10/12 = 83.3%
Day 4 (4 mislynches left, 0 doused within suspect list) - 9/11 = 81.8 % * 83.3% = 68.2%
Day 5 (3 mislynches left, 1 doused within suspect list) - 7/10 = 70% * 68.2% = 47.7%
Day 6 (2 mislynches left, 2 doused within suspect list) - 5/9 = 55.6% * 47.7% = 26.5%
Day 7 (1 mislynch left, 3 doused within suspect list) - 3/8 = 37.5% * 26.5% = 9.9%
Day 8 (lylo, 4 doused within suspect list) - 1/7 = 14% * 9.9% = 1.4%

1.4% that scum avoid the lynch 6 days in a row.

Your assumptions are gross. This is a terrible application of EV math.

I vaguely want to fix this now.

[Jingle]

If anyone didn't think this slot was town before, this is pretty good evidence of it.

Not sure how not reading the thread and not interacting meaningfully makes me town, but I like the rest of this page from you so I'll take it.

[Jingle]

No, not really.

[Jingle]

I think scum might still ignite.

Optimal play is to not ignite until 1 doused player has been lynched.

[Jingle]

Who am I supposed to voting right now?

[Jingle]

Who am I supposed to voting right now?

liger

Terrible company, no thx.

I like Ank's PoE.

VOTE: buj

[Jingle]

Oh also I think BuJ's mathpost came from towny interest?

Ah, right, mathpost.

Hold my beer, I got this.

[Jingle]

Snip

15 alive.

11 unprimed, 2 primed, 2 scum.

Assumptions: Random Lynch, Scum Prime Unprimed Town, Scum Ignite when Ignite == Win, no Primed player already lynched.

Day3

11/15 UP Lynch -> D4 9/3/2
2/15 Primed Lynch -> D4 10/2/2
2/15 S Lynch -> D4 10/3/1

If you assume 3 conftown (which is bleh) the distribution of conftown affects the percentages differently based on distribution of primed/unprimed.

tl;dr math post extra garbagy garbage without flawed assumptions and no relevance to the game even without that.

[Jingle]

The point was that your mathpost was entirely irrelevant at best.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Liger

I'm vaguely upset that isn't a hammer.

[Jingle]

Okay, I’m actually going to read this tonight, ignoring all of my previous thoughts.

[Jingle]

And people said my psychology degree was a waste of money.

Your psychology degree was a waste of money.

[Jingle]

EE/Ali discussion on first few pages feels natural.
Rei still locktown. Scum doesn't approach the game the way she did.

DT worse on reevaluate. Particularly EE interactions feelsbad. 309 feels like trying to take a soapbox to avoid gamesolving. 311 interesting, vig soft in an open? WTF?
Don't like X entrance. kinda like 301? kinda like 353 as well.

DT/EE never S/S. Gang up over selfvoting is too bvious a connection.

344 might be the best post in the game.

Actually vaguely agree with sho wrt Vedith at this point. 348 is >rand town.

EE refusing to understand the downside to PL is probably >rand town? Definitely not agenda driven, but rather actually misunderstanding the drawback at least. Emotions feel real, esp frustration at 'derailing' EE's 'plan' from the early pages. Locking in as town.

377 grosstastic. Demonstrates both an understanding that the argument is bad for gamestate and a conscious decision to keep it going by providing polarizing evidence.

DDL/X RQS discussion feels off. 383 gives me the heebie jeebies for some reason. Continuing 391 just feels all sorts of unnatural. Not sure if S/S or T/S, but pretty sure there's S somewhere.

389 spews EE town, I think. Doesn't hard associate with a buddy there, imo. Large scum equity with DDL, they're fighting using two townies as proxy. Also, I think maybe indicates DT town? grapes was def happy to keep the fight going, so either DT was convinced he'd win the fight (eh) or the main participants were all town.

Leaving off at p17 for now. I'll come back to this.

[Jingle]

Oh yeah, I can share this now:

Subject: Greatest Idea VIII - Game Over

Its day 3 and your only contribution is saying that you shouldnt be scumread for not posting

no, it's actually you are prob just scum for trying to push me as scum for activity because you know i posta lot more as scum

[Jingle]

Ali/FA interaction locks ali slot for me again. Back up to 3.

462 mebbe town?

Ved/DT not scum, I think. 500 doesn't look like a bus. 510 townpost.

DDL still gross. 508-509 awful. Minor S/S points for x/ddl. Minor S/S points for DT/DDL for this and also 593.

DT/Vedith interactions on 22 good for vedith, bad for dt.

552 implies shoshin has accurate reads at that point in a way that suggests that's actually grapes' belief. Shoshin pushing DT/Ali/MCQ/CLEM. Strongest reads seem to be Vedith/DT (Maybe X?) thus fine with treating Ved/X as town for the time being.

locking Ved town at 583. Why did we suspect this again?

Buj CW to DT makes me :/

608 seems terribad for DT.

Why haven't we lynched DT slot yet?

617 >rand town after townBujflip. Scum doesn't care about teh associatives being tied there because they're never going to come up.

@662 Why haven't we lynched DDL slot yet? He's consistently dancing around centerstage without getting anything done.

743-7 seems like digging for an excuse to justify a read, not trying to read.

751 mebbe town?

EE getting mad when I poked him is maybe town? I think he thought Vedith was scummy, at least, so prolly not VedTown EagleScum

I regret lynching Buj.

870 is ! Clem admittedly activelurking. Does someone meta this?

875: God, is DDL ever going to make a post that sounds town? I can't be the only one seeing this, right?

Note To Self: Check McQ/Me interactions in other games. TR came fast when he wasn't caught up.

Votecount 1.14
NerfedBuJ(3) ~ Vedith(84), DrDolittle(37), grapes(16)
Shoshin(2) ~ Lycanfire(10), NerfedBuJ(32)
Extrapolated Eagle(2) ~ Alisae(103), Shoshin(107)
Vedith(1) ~ Extrapolated Eagle(171)
Prince of Renais(1) ~ Jingle(125)
Lycanfire(1) ~ mcqueen(4)
Gamma Emerald(1) ~ Prince of Renais(14)
DoubtingThomas(1) ~ Xtoxm(18)
Alisae(1) ~ DoubtingThomas(118)

Stagnant gamestate, no scum (probably) with multiple votes. DDL maybe town from wagoning w/ grapes?

Start on p41 after movies tonight.

[Jingle]

In more important news, Shazam was decent and Pet Sematary was a strictly worse remake with 100% less Ramones.

[Jingle]

It's more scumsided than 14v3 mountainous, if that's actually a question.

[Jingle]

@FF, There's a bunch of >>rand town slots and a bunch of meh slots and a complete lack of any sort of organization.

for the most part anyone with the capability of being a town leader is both bored AF and not efforting. Both me and RC agree that you're town, so feel free to never be lynched.

Additionally, Rei and EE purty obvtown to everyone. I include Ved in the town bucket.

I'm assuming Ank is town unless evidence to the contrary forces me to, because she's the most likely to effort at this point and her being town simplifies things. Also that slot did a wonky fakehammer that turned out to be a lolhammer on scum.

L0 replaced lurker gamma and has been being all aggressive-y today but still isn't getting townreads, probably because he likes getting in slap fights and being abrasive. I should probably ISO that, but again, bleh.

Dannflor and or both replaced grossslots and I'd be down for lynching either tbh, but my reread makes me less sure. I also waffle considerably on X.

MP is low impact replacing a low impact flake, so probably a good lead? I dunno. Creat looks town AF.

Haven't gotten far enough to reevaluate again, but Creat/RC slots were both locktown for me before I started my reread.

[Jingle]

pagetop

[Jingle]

It was fun to mislynch him in that bus driver game.

lol we mislynched him again

is this a scumclaim

Nah, it's a butterfly.

[Jingle]

Mightve just been Jingles last readlist rhat pinged me bc dismissing me as "low impact who replaced low impact" feels like an easy way to mislynch me later w/o interacting w me even tho ive been rly present

Prove you've done things I care about then. Seems simple enough.

[Jingle]

I think Jingle would be more actively trying to push a narrative if he was scum here

even if he was waiting for the towncore to be ignited to start having a more active stance on the game, I still think he'd be looking to prepare for that ahead of time and I'm not seeing any signs of that either

I doubt he's scum unless my read on his playstyle is just wrong entirely.

Literally the only person who could be my partner with the playstyle I'm playing here is RC.

[Jingle]

is mcqueen ded already or nah

Purty sure we're just waiting on nsg to flip him.

[Jingle]

But could you just be metaphorically town? Cause I think you're already hammered and it's easier for me if you flip scum.

[Jingle]

or/jingle

[Jingle]

Town
Ankamius
Creature
Enter
Jingle

Stale Town
FormerFish
RadiantCowbells
Reiuji Utsuho
Vedith

Iffy/Idk
Dannflor
Liger_Zero
MaxwellPuckett
or
Xtoxm

This more or less mirrors my positions. Ank would be at the bottom of the top eight and Dann would be below the others, but I can't stop believing that there's scum in Dann/or/X.

[Jingle]

Alright, the changes still count. You'd be in the weaker segment of townreads, Dann would be in the stronger segment of "I'd totally lynch that shit" reads. Which would also contain or and x.

VOTE: or

I'm probably going to be lower site presence for a couple of months, but that will not negatively effect my performance this game. Mostly because I'm already low efforting the shit out of this, but, :shrug:

[Jingle]

VOTE: jingle

Who makes sense as a Jingle partner?

[Jingle]

Jingle :/

should I be worried about you atm

Compare grapes wagon and my subsequent days to police and my lurktastic partners. Realize that if I'm scum here, I'm scum with someone who I can trust to carry the game after I die. Realize that of the player list when I joined that would be RCSlot/Ali and of the playerlist now that would be RCslot/you. Realize that RC/Shoshin interactions firmly imply RC is unaware of Shoshin's alignment.

[Jingle]

I am not scumreading them together by associations to each other. I see no reason to say they aren't scum together though.

You think my partner here is DDL? Seriously? You appear to be reading less than I am.

[Jingle]

or replaced DrDolittle

[Jingle]

and apparently, the slot I actively tried to lynch for literal days is scum with me, which is kinda hilarious.

[Jingle]

Cause they clear my name, where my play really doesn't?

TBF, I'm good enough at scum and my scum and townranges are so similar that I'm basically never cleared before I make it literally impossible for scum to win, but cest la vie.

[Jingle]

you kinda rolled over in police academy though, at the very least your impact on the game severely lessened over time after your Nosferatu case hit a brick wall and Titus became mechanically locktown

Yeah, my presence in the game took a drastic hit when the number of uncleared players was less than the number of mislynches I needed to pull off. But until that point I was THE townleader. I was THE universal townread. And I knew I was the scum taking things to endgame, because my partners clearly couldn't.

Comparitively, here, my partner who is known was also not someone who would have taken things to endgame. The fact that I haven't tried to be influential means one of two things: 1. I don't have to try in order to win the game. 2. I'm not trying to win the game as scum.

[Jingle]

do you think that's what his plan would be here Liger?

I feel like he would be trying to add to the lynchpool more than try to defend his partner in a dwindling one

I don't think he had a plan here. He is very disinterested in this game. This is probably almost the most active he has been in this game.

Yeah, that's kinda the point.

[Jingle]

try to defend his partner in a dwindling one

except my supposed partner has been my preferred lynch for like 3 days now.

[Jingle]

if you entered the game with a DDL+grapes scumteam, what do you think would be the way the game would progress after N1?

I'd have turbobussed instead of rolling over on grapes, probably would have instigated a big blowup fight with PR in order to make it so people wouldn't listen to him about me, would have subtly undermined any forming townblocks, and would have turbobussed DDL for the cred.

I wouldn't have sat on my hands and let the thread play around me. I wouldn't have hardtownread Ali. I would have tried to convince em I was town. I would have put up more resistance to the wagons we had. And I would've done absolutely nothing to dismiss the ermagerd RC alive! paranoia that the town would have fallen to eventually. Seriously, lynching RC for the LYLO? Glorious.

[Jingle]

Also, to point this out:

I've been capable of being an active voice in this game. In the same time frame I've lurksacked here, I've modded games back to back in the micro queue, reviewed a ton of games, participated in the setup challenge threads, etc. More than a bit of this is public knowledge. I've had the time to effort this game, just not the motivation. And scum me only doesn't have motivation when the game's ending is a foregone conclusion.

[Jingle]

It's not that simple, but yeah, that's more or less the point I'm making.

[Jingle]

You gonna be an active voice from here on out?

God no.

I'm still bored as fuck with the gamestate. I'll be a voice. I'll say what I think. But there's nothing atm that can give me the motivation to tryhard this fucker.

Mostly because my townblock is still solid.





Kinda feeling an L0 here, tbh. He seems pissed that I'm unlynchable for a stupid reason.

[Jingle]

What part of "he hasn't cared at all about this game" are you not getting?

She gets it. It's just also why I'm town.

[Jingle]

Why, as scum, do I not give a fuck here?

[Jingle]

Every individual action I have taken in this game is something scum Jingle is fully capable of taking. I've admitted that, or at least implied admittance. The important question here, as with all mafia games, isn't the what. It's the why.

I provided a reason for a lack of fucks given as town. I also, if you care to remember, told exactly what would have lead to this particular chain of actions from scum Jingle. What you have failed to do is provide a reason why I would act this way with the scum partner you supposedly think I have.

It's interesting that you're suddenly not scumreading me though.

[Jingle]

Also, you probably should've quoted the other one:

Cause they clear my name, where my play really doesn't?

TBF, I'm good enough at scum and my scum and townranges are so similar that I'm basically never cleared before I make it literally impossible for scum to win, but cest la vie.

It's more in line with what you're arguing.

[Jingle]

Oh, wait, you just snipped the part where I said literally the exact same thing you're saying and it towncleared me.

[Jingle]

My mental image of L0 rn:

[Jingle]

have you played with Jingle before liger

To the best of my knowledge, he has played with me or none of my alts.

[Jingle]

The funniest part is that I'm pretty sure me and Dann had this discussion several days ago when he asked why I wasn't efforting.

[Jingle]

I don't have any games I can recall with L0. I don't think he's played with an unouted alt of mine, and if he has it was likely right after he joined the site. It's possible he has an alt that's played with me.

[Jingle]

So let's move on from it \o/

I mean, the other things we could be talking about are you think MP is the best scumspect and L0 not voting my probable partner in his eyes despite it actually being a wagon rn. A wagon that I support.

[Jingle]

Sorry, Liger. Forgot you didn't wanna be called L0

He doesn't?

Should I go back to Zoids-Boy?

[Jingle]

Hot Take:

Despite thinking X makes sense as scum I want to lynch him last out of the PoE pool because I feel like I would care the least about losing to him.

[Jingle]

Other than it being a possibly AI thing that we could be talking about, nothing. I just gave two options for a conversation that weren't how intensely frustrating not being able to lynch me must be for scum.

[Jingle]

Let's sort in RAS/or today, then

RAS still town.

Oh look, I'm already voting or.

[Jingle]

can you convince me on either Jingle

Look at ali's reaction to me. Imagine you being in eir position, immediately after police academy with no other knowledge of how I operate, but with people like mastina and eddie cain talking up how good I am. Realize, as scum, that you don't want to start an unnecessary fight with that.

Ali's previous interactions with me were Camn's revenge, where I called multiple scum before being spoiled BEFORE elli's computer managed it, the Team Mafia Mod PT where we shittalked and both elli and smith said they thought I was good at town, and reviewing eir games.

Ali isn't me. E doesn't walk into a Large game where e can't just nightkill me and risk drawing my ire when every single piece of information about me e's heard is that I'm a semi retired boogeyman.


Also, tonally the presence e had in this thread is completely different to the presence e had in Stellaris, as scum, at exactly the same time.

[Jingle]

Oh. Max is who I was thinking of

Someone said something about talking to dead people, and I'm not in a hurry to lynch the kid from 6th sense. Counterargument?

[Jingle]

I thought last night did get accelerated.

[Jingle]

Or he's just annoyed that he got pushback for pushing me in the first place when by all rights I should be an easy mislynch with how poorly I've been playing.



For real, though, I probably didn't notice how long it took because the Open I'm running just hit signups. It's a setup designed by NSG and I'm hoping to

bully

convince NSG to play. Also, it's got actual nightkills and starts with not a bazillion players.

[Jingle]

But that's one of the two reads I've actually tryharded on.

[Jingle]

Enter is too confident to be scum.
RC is town because scumPR doesn't react to shoshin the way he did.

[Jingle]

I don't want to play this game anymore

Can we happily ever after

Can we just lynch Shoshin slot actually

There's others, but this is probably the biggest bit.

PR and Shoshin have a pretty good relationship. I don't see PR letting things escalate to the point of Shoshin QQing and then still wanting the lynch as a scum tactic. It fits far more if he thought shoshin was scum and had to restrain himself from letting her ATE stop him.

[Jingle]

X. Follow this link. Read the posts that happened at the same time as this game. Tell me I'm wrong on Enter.

viewtopic.php?f=94&t=79217

[Jingle]

Has anyone read an Enter post in the last two dayphases? My eyes just keep glossing over every time I try.

[Jingle]

Just trying to find out if I missed something important. Other than that your reasoning for an MP lynch is pretty bleh.

[Jingle]

Oh. Max is who I was thinking of

Someone said something about talking to dead people, and I'm not in a hurry to lynch the kid from 6th sense. Counterargument?

"If I make it to lylo we lose"

Context.

[Jingle]

Well, none of my stances have really changed. I feel like there's reasons to townread all of the people in my PoE, but that they're meh compared to the people outside my PoE. I could be wrong on someone, but, like... Fuckit.

[Jingle]

I will have to listen to the GIF in my heart instead

GIF told me grapes has high scum equity, we should lynch there again.

[Jingle]

There hasn't been an ignition because not igniting is mechanically optimal. An ignition when a single primed player has been lynched is potentially a good idea, but an ignition before any primed player has been lynched is bad for scum.

Guessing why scum aren't playing against their wincon is dumb.

[Jingle]

If rei rolled mafia on me they are scum irl

(btw Rei is actually my SO)

Like 1/2 the site is your SO

[Jingle]

we are. And have been for like 15 pages. He was even at L-1 before enter unvoted.

[Jingle]

like nobody thinks it's REALLY outside this group of people?

Add zoids-dude and Dann and drop FF imo.

[Jingle]

I'mma be so mad if it actually is or and you guys wouldn't listen to me for 4 days. I realize that my lack of pushing it means I have no one to blame but myself, but I will still be mad.

[Jingle]

like nobody thinks it's REALLY outside this group of people?

Add zoids-dude and Dann and drop FF imo.

why not ff?

I've made like 8 posts about why Ali is lock town to me.

[Jingle]

like nobody thinks it's REALLY outside this group of people?

Nah, his son would have been abandoned due to a physical deformity that made him nonviable and died a horrible, lonely death. Also, where did the rest of the eggs go?

[Jingle]

If Jingle was DT, I'd be okay lynching him. ReelFax.

[Jingle]

I think knowing his alignment clears 2 people in the lynchpool if he's town

Splain?

[Jingle]

If he's scum and we also lynch his partner, it clears the whole lynch pool.


Except maybe RC. We should probably lynch RC in the postgame, just to be sure.

[Jingle]

Oh, cool, another day of not lynching DDL.

[Jingle]

When did you come into the game?

Missed opportunity for a username pun.

[Jingle]

i'm sorry enter

but there's only room in my heart for ankamius

If she dies
or goes missing
or just.. you know
for some reason

can I be like.. the backup?

ok you can be the backup

If Ank dies tonight Enter did it.

[Jingle]

Don't think former and Or are S/S? I don't know, seems this last page could be faked but I have doubts on that.

Well, since FF is town...

[Jingle]

Why the fuck would you sheep me? I'm putting less effort in this than Congress does the budget.

[Jingle]

I feel like scum is going to be people who were in the original, day 2ish Poe pool but who have had replacements that have proceeded to power play while townies have gotten complacent and let their town standing fall

So... My suspect pool?

Can we just lynch already?

[Jingle]

MP and L0 as well.

Basically, everyone who wasn't obvtown on D1 or D2.

[Jingle]

I guess I should probably add Ank and RC if I'm discounting D2 onward as evidence, but :shrug: They're still town.

[Jingle]

[quote="In post 6962, RadiantCowbells"][/quote]

Grapes wagon is probtown. Shoshin lynch interactions are locktown. I've gone over that.

And yeah, Ali's been locktown since I replaced in.

[Jingle]

It isn't a question of locktowns
We cannot lynch everyone I consider not locktown
Maybe if we didn't lynch Bujaber for no reason

It's a question of what 4 lynches wins us the game more of the time than any other

I have 5 suspects. Of those five, I would be least upset to lose to X scum. Therefore, my preferred 4 lynches is the rest of those 5.

If the rest of you would prefer X over one of those 4, I'm not gonna argue.

[Jingle]

Of those two, one is obvtown and I'm voting the other.

[Jingle]

It's not unfair, no.

On the other hand, it's probably your biggest weakness as town, other than your propensity to get in giant toxic 1v1s that kill motivation.

If it was unfair, my reads would be complete trash instead of mediocre.

[Jingle]

Ooooh! Do we get to have another 30 page argument about policy lynching?

[Jingle]

You already have more combined posts than anyone two other slots combined.

[Jingle]

Any two other players, I mean.

[Jingle]

Enter has the 5th most posts in the thread?

[Jingle]

You're on or on the votecount last page.

Also, I'm super excited about yet again not lynching or. It's like, my favorite thing ever.

[Jingle]

you should write an essay about how he'll will definitely flip town in twilight

So very tempted.

[Jingle]

aight, let's see if I can devote enough time to a towncase before nsg comes back.

[Jingle]

Jingle and RC, where are we at?

Enters the game asking two very competent players to give him context.

Immediately transitions into trying to get involved in the game instead of falling back into the easy excuse of 'Holy shit there's so much to read'

Belief that Dann's question of whether RC is 100% seems to imply he thinks he's being scumread in a genuine way, when iirc everyone was townreading him then.

And... I've run out of time for this. Dammit.

[Jingle]

Yes, we should lynch Enter. That way the scum team of Jingle/RC will have smooth sailing from here on in.

[Jingle]

jingle you've failed me.

Ok, I'll do better.

Wow, I can't believe lynching FF is this easy.