Starry Night [Game Over]

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Ok my turn to be stupid

I don't fully understand Kagami's thing

And I am confused on whether 1 or 2 more lynches triggers intermission

I think it's 1 more but someone said it's 2

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like if anything cephrir so awkwardly not being on the wagon is confusing my read on him

Ceph having basically no confident reads besides townreading his partner[/quote]
This is not true Cephrir is hard townreading OkaPoka rn

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Ceph having basically no confident reads besides townreading his partner

This is not true Cephrir is hard townreading OkaPoka rn

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playing scum is pretty miserable but it's kind of like the corporation in netrunner where someone has to play it to make the great game the great game it is

It helps a lot if I have partners I really like ,like that game I played with elvis_knits


An event sequence that would make me feel better about Cephrir's slot:

"Cephrir says he doesn't agree with townreading pop's slot"

"pops makes some posts she's clearly enjoying"

"Cephrir says she townreads Cephrir's slot"

"it becomes clear that pops isn't going to get lynched dance1"

Actual sequence of events.

A

B

D

C

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ebwop Cephrir says he townreads pops' slot I can't brain

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I called deasvail for help cause i'm struggling but he keeps being Australian

he didn't even dance with me i'm just a broken person really

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broken and in reeses pieces

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not even chocolate

reeses pieces don't use real chocolate

it's a fraud

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Kill gaiden
Kill shiro
Kill gamma
Kill deas
Kill oka

Once you get rid of those slots thats when the real game of mafia begins

My burden of antificiency is pointing to Shiro being town if Deas/Ceph has scum.

That's toxic. "burden of antificiency" requires a "weak" player to do worth than rand which is illogical. So this makes you look stupid, not Alisae. Don't post this crap in the thread again

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*worse than rand

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no matter how many okas I lynch if I go to the convenience store today and buy reeses pieces after work they will not contain any chocolate

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I feel like this game would already be a town stomp if the pairings weren't the way they are

If FakeGod finds out you read my lover PT he will modkill u

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Kill gaiden
Kill shiro
Kill gamma
Kill deas
Kill oka

Once you get rid of those slots thats when the real game of mafia begins

My burden of antificiency is pointing to Shiro being town if Deas/Ceph has scum.

That's toxic. "burden of antificiency" requires a "weak" player to do worth than rand which is illogical. So this makes you look stupid, not Alisae. Don't post this crap in the thread again

I'm not saying I believe Alisae is bad. I'm saying I don't believe Alisae is that good to pinpoint all three scum and I'd like say that to most of the ms players.

Ok
I need you to understand that this is a mathematical illogical fallacy and a variant of gambler's fallacy
because i agree with ank you're probably my teammate

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Creature if I randomly named 5 people day 1 in the first post of the game, one average 1 would be scum, right?
If four flipped town, would the fifth one be more likely to be scum?

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:avatar react:

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bitmap has kinda spent the last few pages grinding my TR on the slot to dust

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if the scum are foolish enough to leave kagaiden alive we'll happily collect our free win tia

They have the cutest avis though so really everyone would win

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VOTE: BitDunn
Follow boo


Really though I'm gonna unvote if this gets past L-rave cause I want to make sure we use all our time.

2 lynches in 8 days followed by 5(?) lynches in 8 days is weird

pedit: and UNVOTE:

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if you add in the chance for the "wrong" half of one of these pairs the pairs to flip red there is a pretty good chance this actually just turns out EZ

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because that's more important in the scenarios where the game doesn't turn out EZ?

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I'll T-T Ank/Maria if BitDunn has one scum and then I'm pretty sure game is won on this fact alone.

Other T-T I see as possible are GRob-Creature (Mostly Creature) and then I guess I'm following Kagami's read on Gaiden.

i know you read the post where i told you not to print all of our townreads before intermission
why are you trying to gamethrow on me

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Ok but what I didn't tell you creature is that there's another random list in my back pocket and it overlaps with 4 town 1 unknown slot only in having the unknown slot on both lists.

But this other list is 2 scum, 2 town, 1 unknown.
So this other list makes the unknown slot less likely to be scum to get closer to that 1/5th average.


How can list1 push down and list2 push up at the same time?

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What's your read of dunnstral bitmap?

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*L-Gaiden1

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i am gonna say something crazy here.

i think ank/maria should be in endgame.

if they were i'd actually watch that movie

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Btw scum!me most likely pairs with MariaR because I think she'd be one of the biggest threats to my team in this plist and it would help me control the game if I could take her out when I feel like it would help my team win

Or even better, use her hunting in the PT to pocket the rest of the game and powerwolf the game where I want it to be

I could see MariaR picking me as a partner for a similar reason since I tend to be a major wildcard as town

sometimes i think you people seem to play mafia more complicated than I do

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Dunnmap: I know you're saying Oka had bad Bitmap associatives but Firebringer associatives were way worse.
Ankamius:

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that's really mean to call that a panic I would have loved to dance with dunnstral but he is too kakkoi

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Ankamius
All my posts this game
Are trying to pair with you
</3

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Cephrir do you townread both Dunn and bits?

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Apparently it doesn't earn him getting cursed out so I should probably buy firebringer's paperback and read it I guess

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I would consider lynching this pair in the near future mainly because of doubts about Shiro but I don't think I want to lynch them right now.

This line pings me. Not really for the traditional scum-down-for-any-lynch reason, but just because it's the opposite of resonant to me the way this game has been going to want a pair around for a wee bit long but not to want the pair around for a long time longer. Bitmap's play has looked quite a bit scumflail but I wish I could put Dunnstral in a kakkoi snowglobe and keep him with us until endgame to keep reading this game. So there's pairs I want around a lot long and pairs I would just dayvig if I didn't feel obligated to minmax the deadline and not much in between. It feels like he's copypasting a line from a normal queue large that would work that doesn't work here, there's not going to be some near-future revelation about firebringer-shiro from night actions. Intermission is just going to remove Kagaiden or a widely townread pair and that's all the night actions for the rest of the game, and DV hasn't indicated some specific flip that would cause a paradigm shift on the pair (and I don't notice one anywhere)

The rest of his post covers enough ground without pinging me more but then I really don't like how the rest of the page goes.

Bitmap had a pretty good case against Deas early on in the pt, in that his iso is weak and sheeps general consensus

In a world where I am town, do I have reason to believe the general consensus is wrong?

General consensus is that Ceph/DV is likely to have scum, DV has stated a Ceph townread. This is an outright scumslip at its worst. But to characterize it with a less tabloidy headline this post worries me that it's Oka-DV-deepwolf and so DV just sees this as the safest way to play rather than making any maverick reads and risking assocs or just in general sending the game on a different path.

I'm pretty big on lynching this pair. I actually like it a good deal better than Bit/Dunn but I think this setup creates some value in solidarity with your partner and d2 bit pretty easily pulled me into compromise territory. Like I've said before I really like the idea of lynching a pair where it feels like either side could flip scum and although guessing the scum half correctly the first time is gonna take some wind out of the sails the principle still seems true.

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Correct game tempo is probably to hammer soon here I think.

But I really want Gaiden to hammer cause it's a meme now

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Cephrir tbh it's that DV has not played as well as Firebringer not that you have not played as well as Shiro if I had to show you my excel spreadsheet

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VOTE: Cephrir L-Gaiden

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I'd really like to watch a dunn-bit endgame from the dead thread tbh

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Can you teach me to scumread unwnd so I can leave and go chill with Alisae and watch a Bitmap challenge the Man all endgame

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tbf I'm not sure how MariaR is getting as far as I did about unwnd without the same material I have

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I shouldn't elaborate before intermission

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Don't listen to Creature your previous avatar was superior

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tbf I'm not sure how MariaR is getting as far as I did about unwnd without the same material I have

Let's just agree that if our pairings are both alive and its close to lylo once of us suicides

?

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Suicide if you scumread your partner strongly enough.
Don't suicide if you don't scumread your partner that much.
WIFOM paranoia leaving is exactly the gamethrow condition ank is worried about

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I thought that avatar is from the Nintendo paintball game and I thought all the characters do the same thing in it. The inklings. so you just play the one that looks best every time right?

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Great

We're lacking actually towny players

Who are the actually towny players

Alisae and Gamma Emerald

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You don't have to be good to play a game competitively, it's about believing yourself and enjoying getting as good as you can manage and taking pride in little victories. It doesn't have to be about never losing.
I play lots of games I suck at competitively.

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I think either we all know what we're doing or none of us know what we're doing this game

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that sounds more like furry shit doesn't cephrir need to explain what kind of dating site mafiascum is again?

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grumpy old man creature only plays the real pokemon, pokemon go

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I'm not very worried about this game on DV scumflip. We should probably spend more energy on the branch of DV townflip

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"Anime is hand-drawn or computer animation originating in or associated with Japan."

Pokémon=anime.

Pokémon being one of the earliest impacts in the west before wider Japanese cultural influence + being limited to the resolution of the original GameBoy in what extent it could express Japanese tendencies in its art style may blur that line some but it is definitionally anime.

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Ank's avatar reminds me of vieras from ffta

One time I beat the whole game with no one in my party except a single Viera named Jacqueline

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I could touch an MMO, I could also go downtown and meet several dealers that would give me the first needle for free. As awesome as FF can be I'm keeping away from ff14

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I will healslave bitmap in splatoon if splatoon has that

otherwise I will not buy the game

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I hope that's because you were playing Undertale mafia

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PAD is getting another FF collab again soon

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PAD is puzzles and dragons the mobile gacha my avatar is from.
It's really fun only gacha I've been able to stick with

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can you censor references to any similarity to ffta or ffV out so that I don't get tempted by it

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thanks so much

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Bitmap who is your best scumread on DV greenflip

I want 101%

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oh DV flip and NK happen simultaneously I should do pre-NK readslist
instead of posting about video games

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OTP, unwnd, MariaR - refuse to comment on whether it's a good NK option or great NK option

Bitmap/Dunn - Dunn feels like a pretty solid townread to me and part of that is an unwillingness to play lowball and do anything like discredit or anything in that same genre when defending himself in his partner
predance Bitty seemed town to me, first dance bitty has been way worse, but his playstyle seems to shift a lot and if it is correct to townlock him it might be possible for the town to correctly do that if he makes yet another transition. I feel like this pair should be maybe a bit less damned to hell than it is particularly amongst todays 4 biggest wagons

Creature/GR - Creature has become my hardest townread in the game after having a townread on Lupin and the oka thing looking situationally a lot like Creature town. Which is ironic as a way to arrive at creature town... I really like having 2 points of data going from 2 different angles leading me to the same conclusion
GR is one of my least sorted slots in the game and it doesn't seem like he plays a traditional pro-town game to say the least. But I stress out about this pair petty little because i'm even surer than dunnstral on half of it and Creature seems to have little fear of reading a scum!GR

FB/Shiro - Shiro has been on the defensive when I've seen her play much more aggressively. The more offtrack we are the more worried about that I'll be, because it could mean she has little interest in disrupting us on the wrong path.
Firebringer seems like the townier half of the pair for sure and did some probing that seemed town motivated to me in earlier phases of the game, but I've been more disappointed by interactions with Cephrir that had a clear lack of potential to accomplish anything

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I kinda don't want FB/Shiro to be the next lynch if DV greenflips even if I still think assocs included it'd be the scummiest pair. It just seems like it'd be better to make course correction, especially in a game without NKs where resequencing seems more costless

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hrm that's too many people I want to give more time given that we're going to be making 5 lynches in 8 days

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Ok, who do u want lynched then and why is it probably going to be my pair?

dunnstral-kun snowglobe

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on a DV redflip I strongly want us all to keep assuming this game is EZ and stick with the lynchpool that was popular dance 1

on DV greenflip I really think some critical thinking is in order and I have some guidance and which people I think should get how much handicap but I don't have an immediate line to proscribe

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if I am not here tomorrow MariaR-ank is guaranteed to be and they both seem really smart so I don't need to do a full blueprint

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kagami is smart too

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gaiden is... will post images and gifs of hammers and mallet shaped objects

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It's if we mislynch twice in a row and mislynch a third time we lose right?

Despite Deasrir being a miss I don't think that's very likely.

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I'm pretty torn between just lynching the scummiest people and slowing down and rethinking things after a mislynch. 8 days 4 lynches can't be paced too slow though. I should look at whether Cephrir or DV had reads worth deadsheeping maybe

Did MariaR have some kind of midlife crisis game rethink in the lover PT for Cephvail greenflip or does that not trigger before another greenflip?

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Yawn man

Now I'm unsure which pair is most likely T-T

that's a shame cause I think if you correctly townlock one pair then lynch randomly the town EV is like 80% or something

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Yawn man

Now I'm unsure which pair is most likely T-T

that's a shame cause I think if you correctly townlock one pair then lynch randomly the town EV is like 80% or something

If we lynch randomly our EV is like 60%?

With five pairs if one was correctly townlocked the odds of losing is only possible from 3 immediate mislynches. The odds of that is (3/4)(2/3)(1/2). So the odds of winning is 1 - (3/4)(2/3)(1/2). So it's 75% which is close to my 80% estimate

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What does MariaR hardpush look like
is it pretty

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i dont think itd be possible for me to build a case i believe in

hm maybe my deadsheep ideas will have to come from DV or kagami

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FB/Shiro is an inferior lynch by a large margin.

I mean, you probably want to lynch Bitmap almost no matter what.

I kinda like Shiro lynch better than Bit but there's this + MariaR + Ank so

Creature keeps saying he's team FB/Shiro but he hasn't explained it

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FB/Shiro is the only possible scum-scum pair so 2/3 of MariaR/Ank/Kagami is town. I don't know if I am twice as smart as these people. But it is easier to solve the game if people don't sheep too much.

I'd really like to see some hackeysack kicked around starting with Creature can you explain your reads more?

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oh I hard TR you anyway btw
it's after intermission I can say that now

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That's because you scumread him right? And not because you think Leave is inherently powerful in the setup?

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VOTE: Bitmap/Dunn
Can make a Bitmap case if needed, but I know we're lynching them anyway so it probably isn't needed. I went radio silent in my PT because I needed to debate if I was gonna kill Ank or not after that flip. I was going to going into the night because to me it made sense on why I was having such a major blind spot this game, but I think it could just be GR/Creature with me being wrong on how to read Oversoul.

Let me town case her before you do this because I think this would be a mistake. I can't right now cause I'm phoneposting.

@bitmap: it's a tie between GR pairing and shiro pairing

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Bitmap ankamius and mariar can't possibly be scum together so the discrepancy between how they described their pt activity is NAI

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Pretty similar to creature, very strong townread across the game as a whole but the last couple pages in particular haven't felt great

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Last couple of pages being public play I liked our chat in the pt (quoting from the pt like he needs to prove he used the PT is eyebrowz"). But he didn't quote the entirety of it

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No it's because 3837 is a wtf post

If you're thinking of leaving the game it's not worth a lot of energy arguing about your alignment though

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I think it would have been better if you didn't blame cephrir misLynch on peer pressure

You weren't arguing your alignment in 3837 you're arguing it now and idc why you care so much when I said I overall townread you still. You can just be my second highest townread Ricky bobby

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A lot of peoples scumgames here I don't respect enough to be able to trick me. Pops/Umd I do respect so if I was lynching on info I'd want to lynch them. I'm probably overthinking though.

Did you read one of my games, cause I could swear we haven't played?

pops offered to say something, so I'd like to hear that first.

I promised to towncase Ankamius today but I don't remember offering to say something besides that. I might do that next post to have it done with.

VOTE: DunnBit

Fuck it then.

unwnd complained about apathy in the PT as well but I'm getting pretty convinced this is the apathetic lynch. Dunnstral and Bitmap each haven't made a single scummy post since intermission. Ok, some of Dunnstral's recent flaccidity could be scumread recently, maybe, but that's not the problem slot unless your moveset is water gun/tail whip/tackle/bite.

The intermission kill was Gaiden, which did nothing to disrupt this lynch. Either a MariaR NK or an unwnd NK could have struck the base of the consensus on this lynch much harder. Kagami was partial to it too sure but SXTLHGaiden himself could get pushed and Gaiden would have hammered any other lynch (that's actually optimal play for town!gaiden even if posting just to refuse to give reads isn't. Man is this setup weird).

I don't think with just a status quo NK we should be doing the exact same thing here. There's another scum pair out there that could be a more illuminating flip, and if it was really the Dunnbit pair all along it should show at some point along the way as we do that.

"Apathy" isn't being to slow to John Hancock a lynch people are getting less excited about because it's probably wrong, "apathy" is lynching people whenever it's easy to get consensus on it.

You're not getting my vote on this lynch though it seems it might happen without me
VOTE: Shiro

[popsofctown]

The N0 IC should be replace with a special "ship it" event that happens during the game where the town votes to repair 2 sets of partners

[popsofctown]

The intermission kill was Gaiden, which did nothing to disrupt this lynch. Either a MariaR NK or an unwnd NK could have struck the base of the consensus on this lynch much harder. Kagami was partial to it too sure but SXTLHGaiden himself could get pushed and Gaiden would have hammered any other lynch (that's actually optimal play for town!gaiden even if posting just to refuse to give reads isn't. Man is this setup weird).

I said I'd push on gaiden if kagami pairing lived in my pt over the night, and they died anyway

What did other people say in their pt about gaiden over the night?

This

unwnd highlighted both their names in green in a post cause he assumed both would die.
I'm guessing you think this is scum indicative for him?
I can't remember if I made a substantive comment and am too lazy to read all my own posts I just skimmed

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Creature I want you to sink GRob for me and if it's wrong you can all throw tomatoes at me

I'd like to see that too.

Anything to put this game on a different trajectory.

The current town gameplan seems to be "lynch Dunnbit for reasons we finalized on page 33, then BoP MariaR to get the equity back if it flips green". And the MariaR pair is my second favorite last-pair-dancing win condition so I don't like that gameplan

[popsofctown]

Spoiler: Ankamius towncase

By first half do you mean first part? The way I'm reading the setup the nightkill occurs like 28% of the way through the game or something like that

I mean first half of deaths, I'm looking to town hunt in this setup

Ank makes a commitment to townhunting in the setup really early on. Townhunting is a strong way to win as town in this setup but a shaky way to try to win the setup as scum. Whichever famous dead guy said it: "you can't fool all the people all the time", and just one person has to post "I leave the dance" on your deepwolf slot for the game to collapse. Getting mislynches one at a time is still easier and safer for scum and she could have spent predance doing shade potshots that wouldn't be incongruent with her style.

1. less likely for me to be a consensus townread, which makes me far less comfortable with wanting to try to take any sort of lead in this game at any point
2. more likely for me to tilt out of the game or tilt others out of the game
3. with no fundamental staying power, I want to focus on setting town up to win without me so that my posturing is known to be town instead of having to risk getting paranoia lynched

Ankamius doesn't expect to endgame but wants to set the town up to win. There's obvious WIFOM here but she's been playing like someone who might not be here all game, all game, with virtually no LAMIST posting and lots of long term planning.

I'm really not feeling a that we're seeing a town okapoka atm

This is like page 25 or something, I don't know the math, but Ankamius correctly shaded okapoka for virtually no cred. It's town indicative to organically generate an accurate scumread and it makes little sense to tax that for buscred WIFOM the way that the game actually progressed.

I don't want to pair with Creature
I don't want to pair with Shiro
I don't want to pair with Alisae

I can be convinced on the rest

Based on what I think I know about the personalities in this playerlist I don't think scum!ank could pretend to want to dance with Creature or Shiro but I think she could dance with Ali. Maybe. Mostly both scum!Ank and town!ank pair with MariaR with high probability.

btw

I'm pretty sure I've figured out scum's strategy this game

Cool, what is it

I'll discuss it in my neighborhood

because it almost entirely precludes mariar being scum if it's true

total and complete abandonment of the LAMIST value of game related posting.

I don't really put 2591 onto anyone here

just making a point that BoP is a thing and people should probably be using it more

This is after Ank has paired MariaR so it's not a particularly survivalistic topic to bring up if scum!Ank knows MariaR's readslist is pretty bad. If MariaR is projected to make 2 hits that maybe inverts, I suppose.

I think Gamma is kinda obvtown and oka is more likely town than not

Ank didn't join the Oka scumwagon even though the town probably would have awarded her more cred than they did for her predance potshots. In reality her informal behavior towards him did far more to kill him though.

Do not end the day please

Would have been pretty easy to not post this. A spontaneous leave would have probably been pretty catastrophic informationally.

I feel like this game would already be a town stomp if the pairings weren't the way they are

This was really resonant and should have been resonant for every other townie reading it the way the pairings have turned out. Whereas it is not natural for the scumteam to post, I'm not positive how far ahead or behind the scumteam are but I suspect they are rather pleased with who is dancing with whom.

Kagami + SXTLHGaiden is almost always TvT
MariaR + me is almost always TvT
unwnd + popsofctown is almost always TvT

Golden Robster + Creature is very likely TvT, pending a check on GR that I'll do later
Firebringer +Shiro is probably TvT (Firebringer is hilariously obvtown and Shiro is still comfortably in his townrange), not really interested in sorting that until I have to

Deasvail + Cephrir <--- DeasVail is likely scum, Cephrir rarely is
Dunnstral + Bitmap <--- Bitmap is likely scum, Dunnstral rarely is

Ankamius follows through on her plan to win the game through townblocks. She is not executing a gameplan based on casing people that would give her more power to lynch slots of her choice, instead she is trying to setup the town to mix their thoughts with her input and come up with a townblock wincondition. Regardless of the accuracy (I feel a little more like Shiro knew what she needed to post for us to stop scumreading her dance1 and Ank has shifted even more in this direction today) the methodology is very town indicative to me.

and yes bitmap's last several posts were openwolfing

Not going to post every single one of these, but Ankamius has tried to kill Bitmap because she actually believes it will flip red. Sometimes I don't think I can say that about every member of the Bitmap wagon.

Btw scum!me most likely pairs with MariaR because I think she'd be one of the biggest threats to my team in this plist and it would help me control the game if I could take her out when I feel like it would help my team win

Or even better, use her hunting in the PT to pocket the rest of the game and powerwolf the game where I want it to be

I could see MariaR picking me as a partner for a similar reason since I tend to be a major wildcard as town

I don't even know if Ankamius should post this as town but she should definitely replace this with an FFXIV shitpost as scum.

Shiro having low activity is not AI

This is very true about Shiro and Ank could have just not posted it to retain more ability to pivot stances on Shiro as her activity varies throughout the game.

I maintain that Oka was trying to discredit me

The way Oka interacted with Ank dance 1 seems to clear her. It created so much interaction opportunities for Ank to say something awkward, or even if Oka was a big believer in his teammate, a chance for Oka himself to say the wrong thing. Nothing offkey actually came out of it.

Then purge all but fbshiro

This is a bit of a return to a previous topic, but Ankamius is focusing on the townhunt wincondition, and again her favorite pairing is one that does not include herself. This is town indicative. I strongly disagree on the pairing she's picking though.

I have MariaR a bit townier than null. So if I'm lynched, it won't be up to me but I heavily lean towards, make MariaR/Ankamius last pair standing

[popsofctown]

I already have ankamius as town though pops

Was anybody scumreading her

MariaR threatened to leave her after you flipped a couple pages ago.

But on the last two pages I see a bunch of MariaR proposing MariaR-Ank endgames.

And that dissonance is looking super nasty to me right now actually.

[popsofctown]

Why not just lynch Ank-MariaR and trust that Dunns will suicide if they flip T-T?

Most people trust Dunns here.

Dunn-kun snowglobe has very powerful reads.

[popsofctown]

Can someone come in here and tell me with a straight face that bitmap isn't openwolfing

bitmap isn't openwolfing

[popsofctown]

Bitmap who is your strongest townread in the game?

[popsofctown]

I like this.

Creature any last words?

[popsofctown]

Probably should give GRob a last post too I guess? But I'm a little pessimistic about the the value of town!Grob's input

[popsofctown]

VOTE: creature
Only person I think would lolhammer it is Shiro
People are gonna put her as last pair standing no matter what it seems.

Whatever.

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BITMAP WHY WOULD YOU DO DIS

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towncasing you was fun

If MariaR left you that'd be really dumb, MariaR is the only possible scum in the pair

I am pretty concerned about Shiro being Occam's razor scum

And I'm pretty concerned about MariaR's "I'm gonna leave Ank" "loljk I was just LAMISTing"

It looks like I'm definitely getting lynched here so I have a coin toss chance of losing this game

Which is less than I'd prefer but oh well

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Ank
unwnd
Firebringer
Mariar
Shiro

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Not sure if I should dig dig through isos to figure out whether Shiro's six posts are scummier or townier than MariaR's 90 posts and give you all an opinion or if you'd just not really care and do Shiro last pair no matter what.

Earlier in the day phase since Firebring has ability to flip scum FB/Shiro was head and shoulders stronger lynch but when it's the 4 man LyLo where you are actually just identifying the exact individual who is scum MariaR vs. Shiro is a bit closer

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MariaR most of the game kinda just did what she wanted. I kinda can't find much survivor tell off of her. Even setting aside the whole pick a bad partner wifom just the way she has been playing isn't particularly good for surviving. She pushed Cephrir wagon and joined Grob wagon without providing much independent reasoning which would kinda be scummy but when Grob did really flip scum and I would 10/10 mislynch Cephrir over again on the same play that's not scum indicative the way an unjustified LHF fruit lynch might would be.

What I'm not happy with is a lot of dissonance coming from her slot right now that seems totally based on whether we'd be amenable to a MariaR last pair standing rather than changing her read of you based on her play. She literally went from planning to leave you after one more red flip to townlocking you when you had like no meaningful play in the intervening period.

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4414 is should I give an opinion on whether Shiro or MariaR is a better last pair
or should i just expect you guys will do whatever you wanna do

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FB is 3 pairs left endgame
did you unlock the achievement you wanted
can we high five about that

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hm if you survive endgame don't you win as either alignment?

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so like in a regular game if it was 3 man lylo and you helped mislynch the other townie and got shot that night you'd say you "survived endgame"?

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stronk play

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My goalposts is that if Shiro's next post is in pink again like predance I will say I won this game

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What I'm not happy with is a lot of dissonance coming from her slot right now that seems totally based on whether we'd be amenable to a MariaR last pair standing rather than changing her read of you based on her play. She literally went from planning to leave you after one more red flip to townlocking you when you had like no meaningful play in the intervening period.

Can you expand on this please?

She said she planned to leave you because she nullread you, but a short time later she wants you two to be the last pair standing and she's really confident about it. You didn't post much between those two things. It doesn't make a lot of sense for town!MariaR to progress from nullreading you to townreading you without many posts from you.

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VOTE: Bitmap/Dunn
Can make a Bitmap case if needed, but I know we're lynching them anyway so it probably isn't needed. I went radio silent in my PT because I needed to debate if I was gonna kill Ank or not after that flip. I was going to going into the night because to me it made sense on why I was having such a major blind spot this game, but I think it could just be GR/Creature with me being wrong on how to read Oversoul.

Doesn't everyone in the game TR ank? Pops case seemed good I tr Ank everyone trs Ank
I know I'm town, so even if I have a bit of doubt because ik Ank is scum I do think it's more likely. Plus I don't want to lynch Ank based on 'They're good at scum so I doubt' because that's what happens to me and it's the most shit feeling in the world. If I think Ank is scum I wanna be confident on it and case her. So yeah I'm pretty good on us being more likely

She states she TR'd ank before I even towncased you.

She also didn't clarify that she "already" townread you all along before I did the towncase.

The LAMIST implications of threatening to leave the dance are pretty obvious. I know you're going to say "MariaR is super good so all of her scumtells will be 5d chess" but if your scumpartner is GRob and everyone thinks you're really good at scum you're going to have to do -some- form of LAMIST at one point or another

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I taught him chacha
and rumba
and foxtrot
but most importantly
the waltz
waltz is the best dance
100%

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GR's votes on Shiro don't have the clearing power I wish they did because the shiro wagon never got three votes to rub together. It's possible GRob was voting at times when he knew the lynch wouldn't take off. Specifically voting for Shiro before oka's flip has even been revealed seems like a method to ensure the wagon feels dumb and lhf. Then the only other vote was today when dunnbit consensus was clearly stronger.

It'd be bad vca to say that GRob's actions make it more likely for shiro to be scum but I'm not sure it strong enough to override the way shiro's played the game.

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He's posted in the pt several times that he townreads me. I think he'd just prefer to lose to Shiro than lose to me
I keep thinking part of me wants mariaR dying earlier in the Lynch order because I don't mind losing to Shiro as much tbh.
But I try to chase those thoughts away and be a good player and blah blah

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I really need my original win condition now since Shiro didn't give me the special one

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My heart is full of cry

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Has Shiro hurt you too??

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That was in response to you don't know the half of it
Idk how well it works on this silly game related posting

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To be fair
Wasn't GR not in your original solve?
I thought if he flipped scum and maybe people calmed down we could get Bitmap to endgame
Apparently I am very very stupid for thinking/wanting that.

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I was starting to townread him
Maybe I should host a seminar about it

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Me too

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I hugged my kitty now I don't feel so scared

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I TR my own pair the strongest so that's where my vote would be. But if you left and MariaR flipped town unwnd has stated that he would leave me
Pedit: oh

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I don't think MariaR is miles and miles scummier than Shiro but I halfway follow why unwnd feels that way

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It wouldn't matter. Firebringer and Shiro would never vote eachother so it'd be either no lynch or leave.

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It does fill me with despair. Fire said he'd go against wincon with it and that's the side I townread

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I can't find where Firebringer went so far as the wincon thing, as a fact check, so maybe he didn't

That would mean either Shiro said it or my brain made it up but either way it wouldn't totally preclude the townie from leaving the scum

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I'm not letting Pops/Unwnd be the last pair.

This was pretty expected.
scum!MariaR definitely can't let unwnd be the last pair and town!MariaR shouldn't be very happy with unwnd being the last pair since she oughtta strongly townread Ank and has her own role pm.

You'd need 4 votes to lynch Shiro so it's not gonna happen.

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If MariaR absolutely won't vote Shiro, there's no scenario where Shiro isn't last pair.

The sequencing of the last 2 pair removals has no impact on win%, only which last pair is designated matters.

I'm not going to leave unwnd because it's too perpendicular to my wincon, especially with notions of leaving me popping up and spewing him more, but you should probably stack your 4 votes on me unless anyone sees a different trajectory this game can have.

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I tried to iso and got to 1487 being a modkillable post and now I just don't care.
Regardless of their alignments the extent to which FB and Shiro have insinuated or directly stated they won't leave the game against wincon is gross and makes it hard to want to play this like it's mafia.
Shiro wins Starry Night Charisma bowl, just vote me.

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VOTE: Shiro

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Mafia sucks

UNVOTE:

Mafia doesn't suck, mafia might be my favorite game.

There are certain conditions under which it can suck

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This endgame is pretty grindy but I think I enjoyed predance and dance 1 plenty enough that I'd do it all over again.
Are you against lynching Shiro?

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gg
I legitimately didn't like Shiro and FB pacting not to leave through wincon
You guys don't have to do the grindy 4 way but the way the grindy 4 way works in this setup makes me wonder whether this setup should be reworked or something.

I had fun most of the time but I thought things were kind of townsided so it was pretty painful to play too

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Shiro and FB were both obvtown

This setup is so brutal for scum
Only one NK
JK there's a conftown so you lose if town can get to a townread on just one player
zero NKs
gl

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During the game it'd hurt my wincon to bitch about it but it's really rude for you be playing by meta on a half-outed secret alt unwnd and I agree with Cephrir about that. If you don't want to play meta mafia make a deep identity secret alt. If you do then don't play on an alt man. It makes it more annoying to hear these stories about what you all did last Friday night.

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it's a little disorienting to not get scumcased an entire game and lose as mafia

Usually there is a vote and a blurb about something I did and I get to think "yeah I wish I hadn't done that, or at least that you hadn't noticed it".

Does paranoia really untownside this setup if unwnd just paranoia-left the last scum? I don't know. I know empirically scum has won this setup lots of times but I wish I could figure out more things I did wrong to learn for next time to win as scum?? I guess you'll say not bus, I'm a bit bus-heavy as a player, but I don't think I could avoid the GRob bus and idk, the Oka bus felt like the right play to me.

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sigh

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Okay

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unwnd might have left me after Shiro got hammered too
The whole game felt like agony

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Any town that can't find a single T-T pair and townlock it and win deserves to lose 2 mafia games not just 1.

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how about dance game but
everyone plays to their wincon

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Any town that can't find a single T-T pair and townlock it and win deserves to lose 2 mafia games not just 1.

it was supposed to be dunn/alisae

I would've locked that for life

dunn/alisae would have been strong.
Bitmap left Dunnstral when he was obvtowning would Ali have done the same? idk

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Shiro you promised not to leave Firebringer even if it was the best thing to do to reach your win condition. If you were joking you didn't make it clear that you were.

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"Shiro has big potential to start townspewing if given more time, but bitmap is never gonna truly get forgiven for his day1 play." scum PT from intermission I saw the writing on the wall of this game a long way off

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Are you going to do eight ladies and eight gents who each must dance amongst eachother, or 16 gents?

I pre-in if I'm guaranteed not to get a scum role pm.
AKA I'm not in I don't think I want to have this experience again right away

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I also like playing with Shiro so far

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Cause MariaR said she'd leave you

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Good playerlist honestly, nobody I would be against playing with

isn't it great
knowing the identity of all the other players

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you keep acting like you know everybody

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I don't think it's sustainable to run secret alt games all the time so I think removing the IC and calling it a day is probably good for the setup. I can't imagine the setup feels too scumsided afterwards.

I don't play offsite cause MS is da bess

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FG modded really well yeah as always

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I lost as scum and didn't get blacklisted so I'm counting this one as a "win"

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20/20 hindsight, Shiro.
Realistically probably Ank and then lose, but I would lose feeling that I really screwed up not shooting differently instead of reviewing my NK and feeling it was still mechanically forced.

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pops, I had a question.

Why didn't you hammer Dunnstral - Bitmap?

The trajectory of the game as a whole wasn't good so the longer dance2 lasted the better.

GR-Pops 4-player winstate looked virtually impossible so the timing of Bitmap's inevitable death became irrelevant.

It's like in chess, you don't trade your knight off for your opponent's knight when you're a little bit behind, because simplifying the board makes it less likely something happens that changes who's winning. You keep both knights alive as long as you can.

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I think the problem is the mafia don't get to review the IC partner's future play when they decide whether to NK the IC and that makes it brutally risky not to NK the IC.

When Shiro started playing to her townmeta I had some longshot angles to try to mislynch Firebringer instead although I think he played a pretty towny game
If the IC's partner starts townspewing that's it, game over. Anime guy reveals all 5 pieces of Exodia from his hand and wins the game.

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I have a design philosophy that might get conmingled with the balance philosophy here, there is some wifom to "why didn't they kill the IC" but I hate WIFOM. I played years and years of netrunner and always hated playing that Jinteki card that you can tempt your opponent with that is either a treasure or a bomb and they don't know which and you have to trick them into guessing wrong.

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I think S-S pairing is just not correct

I'm flattered Vi remembers who I am.

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Yes. S-S does beat Exodia. But if you view mafia from the paradigm that mafia players are like D&D characters with a stealth stat that roll a D20 against their skill check every time they post and might shout "scum!", each player's failed skill checks in the pair indicts the paired player.

I think maybe that paradigm is much more 08 than "people with known town metas are gonna play into their own town metas and get townlocked all the time". So much so that S-S is correct? I'm not sure. S-S pairings are definitely the best way to fight the latter paradigm.

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Vi is probably enlightened enough to reap value out of speccing a bunch of mafia games without playing them
like those retired nfl players who coach teams and stuff

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I felt like I was at a material disadvantage in the game by not having friendships within site meta and I don't really think mafia should be about that. I think it would have been far easier to win dancing with DV than with unwnd as an example and that was never an option because I don't have whatever relationship Cephrir has with him

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For those that town read me, what gave it away towards the end?

You were so quiet in the scum PT man

[popsofctown]

yet so active in the game

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I think I liked the Guns & Roses mini better than this setup. This game had a Day 0 Kagami and a Shiro and an Ank in it tho

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No you weren't, the replacement after I died was Blake Belladonna

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blake is me

But that's the person that abuses me in discord

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Dunnstral-Creature

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Ali I would have danced with you if it was gay dance

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The completed games I've played since site hiatus are:
Jingles 9p old school newbie game - town win
StarCraft 2 Mafia Large theme - town win
Hope Plus One - abandoned (advantage town)
S_S Boonytunes mini theme - town win
Guns n Roses - town win
Any non-dead player can post in this mafia game - scum win (I didn't choose to join this game but I did become invested in it)
Starry Night Mafia - town win

I want to see scum winning more games.

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anytime or place I suggest some more antitown setups get run people snap at my fingers
I am about to first time mod a setup that I really like how it treats the town and the scum so I am excited about watching that but it's pretty new with lots of unknowns. It is maybe better take my turn modding setups that are scummier than site meta and trying to roll scum and play really really good rather than making enemies telling people I don't like their setups

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i'm gonna try to be more proactive and/or use more of LLD's concepts from her article next time I play scum

If I get lynched for being more proactive and/or using more of LLD's concepts from her article I'll cry a lil

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do scum win more often on the other sites?

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Vi doesn't think I'm mature enough to mod a mafia game
I mean neither do I but . .

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It's a boy and a girl left and they aren't gay so they can't dance together

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*are gay

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No one will agree the setup is townsided. Everyone on site just keeps watching town win "fair" setups.

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Ty for playing cephrir
Please don't blacklist me fo mislynching you as scum

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That's fair

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ohhh fun game everyone.

my reads were kind of shitty here. I have a lot of apologies to give, bitmap, cephrir, deas, never dunny.

pops u did a great job reversing my scumread on u earlier when i was focused on u, you acted relaxed and u did amazing with allowing me to reconsider my reasoning. good work on that, at the end i started suspecting u again just because everyone was too townie (well except MariaR, maria is always a bit suspicious)

Thanks

Sorry you feel like you get BoP baseline scumread in every game MariaR :/ and sorry if to some extent I think I feigned doing so during the game.