Guns & Roses II [Game Over]

[Bingle]

FG promised I could lose this game fast.

What do I do?

[Bingle]

Apparently Dunn.

[Bingle]

So... Can I get away with not reading anything? Or is my PoV actually helpful?

[Bingle]

Literally not trying is my middle name!

[Bingle]

I read ~10 pages and explicitly trust FL to be town.

I think Ali is town very strongly, and history has shown me to be >rand at reading em.

I don't know nor care about the rest of you.

Do I need to revise mechanics, or can I just sheep?

(Legitimately, the last thing I know about the mechanics of this game was from while it was being designed originally.)

[Bingle]

I prefer TD lynch pops shoots S_S if pops scum is a legitimate concern.

[Bingle]

You dying is integral to FL's plan. The only difference is if you're scum being shot and have fakeclaimed being a gun and are actually a D2 rose, we could mebbe get fucked.

The resistance to lynching you shooting SS compared to lynching SS shooting you makes me want to lynching you shooting SS.

[Bingle]

Fuck.

Okay, I'll actually read mechanics.

Can someone collect claims and give me a list of mech/consensus town?

[Bingle]

Bingle -> Gun, spent Dunn
TD -> Gun, spent Chenn

FL -> Rose D2
SS -> Rose D?

pops -> Gun N2
Ali -> Gun N2

lmao -> unclaimed
croag -> unclaimed

Is this accurate?

Pedit: I see it is.

Calculating.

[Bingle]

If SS is non N2 town rose, this is LYLO.

If FL is town rose, this is Day before LYLO.

If croag/lmao is town rose, this is assumptive LYLO.

I don't see a way to make this mech 100% without clears, and I don't see a way anyone can be mech cleared via setup. What about subjective reads. Is there anyone who is considered to have already-won-if-scum?

[Bingle]

TD's iso implies town.

[Bingle]

There's not necessarily a mechanical 100%, but my plan resolves mechanically between me and FL without risking mislynching a rose, so it's probably mechanically optimal.

Technically correct, but the problem is outside of 100% mechanics, dayplay/subjective reads are actually more important. Which is something no one thinks I understand but I do.

There's a reason I should be feared as town glue and not as a mechanical genius despite the fact that I am FAR better at mechanics than keeping town from self destructing.

[Bingle]

Also, fuck you FG, you told me I wouldn't have to tryhard this game.

[Bingle]

Is it a reasonable assumption that Dunn was the one who shot FB from his reads?

I'm not actually going to read him, because I know he was killed by town.

[Bingle]

Technically correct, but the problem is outside of 100% mechanics, dayplay/subjective reads are actually more important. Which is something no one thinks I understand but I do.

Basically, if you're scum here (which I think is likely) we might have another day. If you're town here, we need to assume we need to solve the game wholly. Therefore, we need to assume we need to solve the game wholly. We, today, need to decide who the 2 person scumteam is.

Either way, you don't get shot tonight nor lynched today, so gratz on that.

[Bingle]

unvotes pls, btw.

[Bingle]

Missing kill is therefore Bitmap or Creat.

Bitmap ISO probably shot by scum for 497. Not very town, not very pushy, mostly pushing flipped town. Implies at least semi active scum player. -> check activity/engagement around then.

Creat is power town early, which means he's probably also a scum shot.

TD functionally conftown FMPOV. Assumption is that whichever one of SS/FL is fakeclaiming is probably spent gun.

[Bingle]

mod spew

Mod spew isn't real here, btw. There's information that is hidden from scum that could have been given. It is imminently likely that regardless of nom's alignment, it was something that seemed innocuous that got her replaced. A dead player claiming their kill to them in schat, or something along those lines, would actually make the most sense, and would require a force replace regardless of alignment.

I am town though.

[Bingle]

I'll hammer whatever in {lmao, SS, TD}

Why TD?

Early push on Fire into genuine sounding deathtunnel on chenn into claimed vig on chenn make me pretty sure that's a town slot. Maybe not a trustworthy town slot, but town nonetheless.

[Bingle]

Besides, gamestatereads wise, that'd be two scum D1 vigs and a N2 rose, which seems like an odd composition.

[Bingle]

Two reasons: one, because someone (I forget who) had recently said that the rose should claim N2 vig and it was a good way to spew myself to scum as not-rose, and two, because I didn't want to have to awkwardly pussyfoot around plans involving me shooting someone on N2.

lynx?

[Bingle]

the only thing I know is that Pops is town
and probably TD
thats it

there’s not 0 scum in pops, Alisae, SS, Td.

Ever.

Probably true.

I'm pretty heavily leaning towards you town in the SS/FL dichotomy. I just have to do due diligence.

[Bingle]

One of Pops/Alisae is scum with one of TD/SS.

:/

[Bingle]

what’s the slant face for.

Town rose FL knows SS is scum.

[Bingle]

Confirming lack of participation in a quickhammer. Not scum with piss or FL.

[Bingle]

Pissleaf is also functionally rules out.

[Bingle]

You're way too late to confirm not scum with FL.

You're right that pisskop/FL is impossible though.

Eh, we’ve had long enough to qh if we were scum together and I’m definitely the kind of person who would have been aware.

[Bingle]

So Ted, Bingle, pisskop is towncore.

Pk, skim fl’s iso when you get a chance and let me know what you think. It’s probs the most important one.

[Bingle]

Eh, the hammer test is already done.

[Bingle]

We have < 48 hours and FL is a good primer for the now. I’d suggest mine, but I expect it’s fairly disjointed.

[Bingle]

Did anyone ever explain Craig town? I feel like that was supposed to happen.

[Bingle]

Look, I’m not going to read what I type into my phone. I barely think about it the first time. You’re just gonna have to deal with the fact that Siri says Craig is in this game and move on.

[Bingle]

Assuming someone can convince me that Craig is town, I think my solve is pops/Ali cross shoot tonight and we deal with the smartflavor 1v1 tomorrow. Which is totally a decision to trust flavor over SS, but I think the timing supports it.

I’m open to suggestions, tho.

Pedit: I guess we can mislynch to. It does theoretically give us information.

[Bingle]

Td not to. That’s an ac that’s actually ambiguous.

[Bingle]

I'll hammer whatever in {lmao, SS, TD}

Why TD?

Early push on Fire into genuine sounding deathtunnel on chenn into claimed vig on chenn make me pretty sure that's a town slot. Maybe not a trustworthy town slot, but town nonetheless.

TD is p locktown for me.

[Bingle]

I’m fine with no lynching because lynching in the dueling pair is dumb, lynching in the obvtown doesn’t net me anything, and lynching fl only happens if I believe SS over him. Lynching SS doesn’t need to happen until we have all the information to hedge my bets. And I low key expect Craig to get shot because it seems like everyone and their mother is reading her as a potential deeprose and also being completely unsubtle about it.

[Bingle]

Why not have someone shoot FL tonight? Then it's not even necessary to sort between the 1v1.

(Because given my track record at convincing people to lynch scum-FL, even when he's really obvious, I'm not exactly looking forward to that.)

Because if we don’t kill the partner tonight we lose regardless and there’s only two claimed shots?

[Bingle]

I don’t talk to Siri, she’s beneath me.

[Bingle]

Keep it PG Jingle

Shut your noise tube taco human.

[Bingle]

Assuming someone can convince me that Craig is town, I think my solve is pops/Ali cross shoot tonight and we deal with the smartflavor 1v1 tomorrow. Which is totally a decision to trust flavor over SS, but I think the timing supports it.

I’m open to suggestions, tho.

Pedit: I guess we can mislynch to. It does theoretically give us information.

Im a gun tonight

You can check FL for fakeclaiming, then.

[Bingle]

It forces scum’s Hand. If scum don’t listen, then they’re confscum.

Yeah, pops and Ali crossshoot. It kills the presumptive scum in pops/Ali.

The only major concern becomes Craig and I want you to tell me why she’s town.

[Bingle]

my big thing is, having not read mind you, what if scum N2 rose?

If FL is scum n2 rose, there is a town player having lied about being n1 gun.

We have two scum kills from n1, and a flipped scum rose.

[Bingle]

If we have 4 n2 gun claims, I think this becomes a hard decision rn to win or lose.

[Bingle]

If 4 n2 gun claims that agree that there is no more wifom, one of them has to be lying scum.

One of FL/SS has to be lying scum. The n2 gun claims circle shoot, we lynch between FL/SS. If we lynch right we win.

[Bingle]

This would hard confirm me and TD as town, which means that if the scum in the n2 gun claims is a n2 rose (unlikely) we still probably win if we lynch right in SS/FL.

[Bingle]

Craig, do you hardconfirm on risk of gamethrowing that if town you are a n2 gun?

[Bingle]

Same at pk.

[Bingle]

Okay.

Croag, shoot PK.
PK, shoot Ali.
Ali, shoot pops.
Pops, shoot Croag.

TD and I are conftown.

I don't see FL as scum with any of those four, so I'm voting SS as soon as all four of those have confirmed they understand the plan.

[Bingle]

We lose in the case that SS is town and Flavor is scum, which is unlikely.

We also

might

lose in the case that Croag is town rose, in which case we lost anyway.

Flavor's utter disbelief in my slot's Rose claim comes across as informed that there was no additional rose and SS played damn well, but he had few outs other than cc-ing as scum.

This is my best solve.

[Bingle]

I’ve LITERALLY solved this game

Says the guy who wants to lynch someone who should be actual conftown from his PoV based on a subjective townread.

[Bingle]

Pops needs to shoot PK, not Croag.

If you're fakeclaiming N2 rose, scum is going to shoot Croag anyway, because there is no reason to shoot you. If Croag is a town rose of not N2, it is mechanically impossible for town to win this game, and FG would have called it already. If Croag snowed you, (which is entirely possible, looking at her ISO) then this plays around that. If Croag is N2 rose and you're gambitprotecting her, then we can deal with that tomorrow.

Listen, FL. You know I respect you, your reads, and your ability to gambit. But You respect my ability to make a setup my bitch, and you need to accept that I've done that here.

[Bingle]

pops, agree to the plan.

[Bingle]

I honestly don’t care about your town read at all, to be quite honest.

I am town with the correct solve, I’m going to push for it

Your solve might win us the game. My solve objectively wins us the game more of the time.

[Bingle]

There are 0 worlds in which town croag gets lynched tomorrow.

There are 0 worlds in which town non N2 croag doesn't die tonight.

There are >0 worlds in which scum N1 gun croag wins this for her team.

[Bingle]

Your solve that involves voting me?

Yeah, if you're town I've already lost. Sorry, but I think the circumstantial evidence points more to FL town than you town.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but with ~1 day left I don't have time to make any real investigations into it. And that's on me. And I'll own that.

[Bingle]

Croag, shoot PK.
PK, shoot Ali.
Ali, shoot pops.
Pops, shoot Croag.

PK shoots Ali.

[Bingle]

I don't actually understand what lynching TD accomplishes.

If, as is fairly likely, FL is fakeclaiming as town to protect croag who he thinks is the last town rose, croag has to be the last town rose. That means that TD is no longer conftown, merely a townread.

If FL isn't fakeclaiming, we have a N1 gun claim that is missing, and necessarily scum. TD is a proven N1 gun, and CANNOT be that claim. All of the N2 guns dying means that none of them were lying, and a LYLO of me/conftownFL/TD leads to a town win.

If FL is scum, both his plan and mine lead to a town loss.

[Bingle]

I like Jingle's plan better. I don't actually understand what lynching TD accomplishes.
I think PK's shot needs to be incorporated though?

This is scum with Something, by the way.

That results in a town win.

[Bingle]

If I’m scum, I already win.

me stupid
me require explanation

Don’t worry about the explanation, blame me if boon flips scum.

[Bingle]

@Ali, shoot pops.

Croag, shoot PK.
PK, shoot Ali.
Ali, shoot pops.
Pops, shoot Croag.

FL, Pops shooting Croag, would die to Ali's shot unless N2 rose. And given the N2 gun hardclaim, would then be turbolynched as obvscum. That's not a hole, that's a feature.

[Bingle]

I'm conftown via confirmed action and missing scum actions, + obvtown via play, + modspew if you're into garbagey reasoning.

Ali, will you shoot pops for me?

[Bingle]

Scum are obviously going to want to shoot Croag tonight. DONT LET THEM. Force them to commit.

This leaves the hole of scumcroag. I get that you're townreading them. But it's a hole in your plan that ISN'T in my plan, and you're not infallible.

You might be right, but my plan doesn't require you to be. It works even if you're wrong.

[Bingle]

Croag’s the fucking rose.

Finally, you asshat.

We'd already lost if he's not a N2 rose.

[Bingle]

she, whatever. The point is that the fakeclaim was obvious and I needed FL's realclaim to be able to solve.

[Bingle]

Let's stop rolefishing

No?

Either the game is already over and scum won, or we can massclaim and path to victory. obfuscating claims helps with neither situation.

[Bingle]

Then we go with my plan.

The venn diagram of your plan winning us the game exists inside of the venn diagram of my plan winning us the game.

VOTE: SS

I really give 0 shits at this point, tbh.

[Bingle]

wtf just happened?

[Bingle]

ig, VOTE: FL?

Still the same gunshots.

[Bingle]

presumably that means croag scum.

[Bingle]

btw, is there a scummy for best slip?

Kodak Moment.

[Bingle]

He does actually, but I'd feel worse if he won here as scum.

[Bingle]

It took a lot more effort to lose this game than FG promised. I assume that scum worked out who the actual rose is and we lose tonight.

[Bingle]

I could see ali/pops, tbh.

[Bingle]

And like, let’s be honest, y’all get some sort of sick pleasure in lynching me, especially if it ends up being a mislynch.

FTFY

[Bingle]

Croag, shoot PK.
PK, shoot Ali.
Ali, shoot pops.
Pops, shoot Croag.

you still advise this?

if ali/pops, they wont die

Eh, Croag should prolly shoot pops over you, but I don't see how we win, so...

Fucks given = -3

[Bingle]

Everybody. Shoot everybody. And if they move, shoot them again.

[Bingle]

1847 is still probs best bet though. It ensures a single scum in the n2 guns pool dies, and outs both scum while killing one if they're both in that pool and somehow don't kill the rose.

[Bingle]

Oh cool, it was unwinnable.

I don't know why anyone would ever choose to have a night after 2 in this setup.

[Bingle]

Also, fun fact, I almost shot Croag night 1 lmao

Uh... FG said you shot Dunn.

[Bingle]

Ahhh sorry guys

I tried

I didn’t really know what to do

I was n3 rose and there was only me left

Chances of me NOT getting shot n2 were so low

Game had pretty much ended when I chose n3 and I was then the only remaining rise in day 3

I want to nominate FL as MVP thanks for having my back

I mean, theoretically you could have lived if scum wasn’t paying attention, but four claims out of eight people and FL protecting you as hard as he possibly could... you were d2 rose or living on borrowed time if town, and I didn’t bother playing around already having lost.

It’s not solely your fault though. From what I gather there were some pretty questionable decisions.

[Bingle]

Not to belabor the replacement point, I would have assumed a force replace due to outside knowledge even on

"nom will be replaced"

given the earlier

"Gamma has requested to be replaced"

. It's probably best to just have a generic

"A replacement is being sought for XXX"

or something like that on any replace.

Agreed.

Either that or ridiculous arbitrary replacement flavor for everyone, like nomnomnom has been Shanghai'd by pirates and the worst was caught up in a flock of seagulls and drawn out to sea.

Don't think it really impacted this game though.

[Bingle]

shanghai: transitive verb: 1a : to put aboard a ship by force often with the help of liquor or a drug

[Bingle]

Basically, pirates kidnapped you to make you row their boat. Sorry.

[Bingle]

Pops' game:



Come to meet shirtless men! Stay because we've literally shackled you to the bench!