Calendar Mafia - The End of Time (Game Over)

[Cookie Bakers]

Hey Titus head here.

VLA this weekend, first overnight with my Goddaughter

[Cookie Bakers]

Oh......this had started.

I will catch up tomorrow because now it is quite late. Really sorry for that.

~Shiro

[Cookie Bakers]

I think panth is town based on this page.

Chemist feels off.

One of the major wagons at least should be scum. When I catch up I expect to put our vote there.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

panthaleon 3 (0verki11, hebichan, pisskop)
Josh Wilkinson 3 (Almost50, The Lord, VaultDweller)
Papa Zito 3 (Taco, bitbringer, TheWizard)

[Cookie Bakers]

Ok Zito, why do you think we're getting useless bickering and avoiding of major wagons if you want to play semantics with me? I don't have time for bullshit.

[Cookie Bakers]

one is lurking. *Le Sigh*

I wasn't lurking, I was ignorant Dx Not that you knew that yet but eh. This post is more of an indication of where I am right now.

~Shiro

I did the thing.

[Cookie Bakers]

@Bit Hey what % of your posts are fire?

Btw guy I caught up so huzzah \o/

~Shiro

[Cookie Bakers]

VOTE: Overkill

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

By resistance, I'd say Overkill and possible partners of Paint and Chemist.

I'd hammer JW to secure a lynch though.

[Cookie Bakers]

2 days, 0 hours, 35 minutes

~Titus (Last post too)

[Cookie Bakers]

46 hours for 12 people.
People are not likely to build a new wagon too close to the deadline because of the fear of no lynch.
So 6 in 20 hours is a reasonable request.

A NoLynch is better than a mislynch if the latter will provide no information.

Why are 0verki11 and JW obvtowns?

Never said they were. But the fact that there are wagons on them while another scum is known means that their wagons are scum driven, and that they therefore are almost certainly not mafia (though I suppose they could be neutrals).

Chemist may be scum, but I will postulate that Chemist is scum with Overkill who abandoned his bus on Overkill when the momentum there ended and a mislynch on JW formed. Do I have a play based reason? No but it feels right.

Join me on Overkill. If it flips scum, we'll go for Chemist tmo.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

The fact that the activity in this game is so low means that it's very likely that the scumteam is exerting an outsized influence. And when scum are more or less directing the town's actions, the utility of information mislynches goes down drastically.

Not exactly.

If Overkill is town, JW is the optimal lynch because it proves either a)JW was scum and thus scum favored Overkill or b) agency captured town as you postulate here.

In b, we turn to the wagons before Overkill and JW to find scum.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

Welcome aboard Wizard. Wagon theory is kinda my thing. I get stronger as the game progresses.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

OMG it's an Alisae!

Totally didn't realize you were here. Why no hi?

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

TheWizard can be my first townread

at least the first I announce

I can sheep this.

[Cookie Bakers]

I guess Blatant Scum can be the other town

Can't sheep this. In an Overkill scum world, BS has high scum equity.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

I guess Blatant Scum can be the other town

Can't sheep this. In an Overkill scum world, BS has high scum equity.

~Titus

Elaborate.

Sure, you're one of the deciding votes on JW making it the stronger wagon currently. I'm not certain but the wagons are close to tied.

Second, although this more memory based, JW isn't a strong SR of yours.

The first provides more value to me unless it's a rare S v S world (unlikely).

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

I guess Blatant Scum can be the other town

Can't sheep this. In an Overkill scum world, BS has high scum equity.

~Titus

Elaborate.

Sure, you're one of the deciding votes on JW making it the stronger wagon currently. I'm not certain but the wagons are close to tied.

Second, although this more memory based, JW isn't a strong SR of yours.

The first provides more value to me unless it's a rare S v S world (unlikely).

~Titus

Yes, I scumread 0verki11 more than JW.
I have already stated that I am sheeping Bitbringer because my reads are bad and he seems towny to me. And he is very likely to be a better reader than me.

Hmph. *punts on sorting you*

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

That's one count of voting for a claimed (albeit way too early) role; and one count of using an out of date VC to cast aspersions about over half the playerbase, which is either proof you're not actively reading the thread and therefore not really scumhunting, or an outright misrep of at least a couple of the players you're pointing at.

While you guys are active, I might even try to get a chance to discuss this.
KidAmn tried to lynch Bitbringer because of not paying attention to the game. Nevertheless, Bitbringer was one of the few people who were actually active in the lurking stage of this day, he formed reads and obviously *were* paying attention to the game.
I see that push from KidAmn scummy.
Any other opinions?

Ignored again.

I wouldn't be surprised if a scum was on Bitbringer. I'm not sure if it's KidAmn though. Scum tend to capitalize on wrong pushes, not make them unless the wagon states need it. I'd have too look. If it is KidAmn, then JW has higher scum equity. I'd have to look more to speculate after that.

[Cookie Bakers]

Votecount 1.4

0verki11 4 (panthaleon, Blatant Scum, Papa Zito, Chemist1422)

panthaleon 3 (0verki11, hebichan, Karnage)
Josh Wilkinson 3 (Almost50, The Lord, KidAmn)
Almost50 3 (Que Flavor, Josh Wilkinson, Dr Easy Bake)

Papa Zito 2 (Taco, bitbringer)
Chemist 1422 2 (I Will Be Nice, TheWizard)

Dr Easy Bake 1 (Croag)
pisskop 1 (pisskop)

Not Voting: Painting Trap, RCEnigma, TheWayItEnds, Cookie Bakers, VaultDweller

With 24 alive, it's 13 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1: (expired on 2019-10-22 10:31:00).

Votecount 1.5

i should never start putting pictures in VCs at gamestart it's such a chore

0verki11 5 (panthaleon, Papa Zito, Chemist1422, Cookie Bakers, RCEnigma)

panthaleon 3 (0verki11, hebichan, Karnage)
Josh Wilkinson 3 (Almost50, The Lord, bitbringer)
Almost50 3 (Que Flavor, Josh Wilkinson, Dr Easy Bake)

Chemist 1422 2 (I Will Be Nice, TheWizard)

Papa Zito 1 (Taco)
KidAmn 1 (Blatant Scum)
Dr Easy Bake 1 (Croag)
pisskop 1 (pisskop)
bitbringer 1 (KidAmn)

Not Voting: Painting Trap, TheWayItEnds, VaultDweller

With 24 alive, it's 13 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1: (expired on 2019-10-22 10:31:00).

Screw this. KidAmn looks like a chainsaw on the JW wagon here. Overkill looks to be the compromise mislynch. I could be wrong but I went back to the post where KidAmn votes JW and KidAmn says moving to consolidate shows that Bitbringer isn't paying attention.

VOTE: JW

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

Let me obv!Scum here and switch my vote to even up the two wagons with less than 48 hours remaining

VOTE: 0verki11

You have a strange definition of obvscum.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

VOTE: JW

[Cookie Bakers]

Just kidding.

VOTE: Overkill

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

I don't believe Overkill and I would like a flavor claim to go with that claim.

yes because I cant lie about flavour
Valintines day.
pretend I spelt that right

Your role PM should have the proper spelling. It's not hard. :/

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

Also that implies you did lie somewhere.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

you think you can swing enough votes for a chemist lynch in the time left in day 1?

The other option would be to lynch one of the two players that are very likely town, so worth trying.

You said Wizard and BS were town, not Overkill.

[Cookie Bakers]

I'm suspicious of this attempt to counter because of the votes.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

I don't believe Overkill and I would like a flavor claim to go with that claim.

yes because I cant lie about flavour
Valintines day.
pretend I spelt that right

Your role PM should have the proper spelling. It's not hard. :/

~Titus

Also that implies you did lie somewhere.

~Titus

@Overkill o

[Cookie Bakers]

We're falling apart.

Heavy Overkill resistance.

No one says he's town.

Just saying.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

We're falling apart.

Heavy Overkill resistance.

No one says he's town.

Just saying.

~Titus

His claim

Is NAI. Scum neighborizers are possible too.

@BS, Hypocrite. Get on Overkill.

[Cookie Bakers]

Guys, Overkill is possibly a loverizer if his flavor is Valentine's day so scum wouldn't want to bus.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

UNVOTE:

I'll follow Xtoxm's instinct here. 0verki11 is also a bad lynch, but I'm mist surprised of Titus' reaction. I thought Titus' most expected response would be "Neighborize me tonight or I'm powerlynching you tomorrow". Titus is a player who really likes to sort people within hoods.

Fair enough, but I like to select vocal players which clear trains of thought not active lurkers who don't seem to be solving the game. I also don't trust he is a neighborizer.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

Que Flavor might also be scum.

[Cookie Bakers]

Screw this. KidAmn looks like a chainsaw on the JW wagon here. Overkill looks to be the compromise mislynch. I could be wrong but I went back to the post where KidAmn votes JW and KidAmn says moving to consolidate shows that Bitbringer isn't paying attention.

VOTE: JW

~Titus

Shiver me timbers, what be this? I be curious what ye heads think of Captain Kidd now, arr...

~Mary Read

Kid could be white knighting but I am punting.

I won't be able to consult Baker Shiro until night.

[Cookie Bakers]

Overkill is at L minus 4, we have 13 hours. Either vote him or vote Chemist now. We need a lynch.

[Cookie Bakers]

neither wagon sits well with me right now.

the overkill wagon is bad in substance and the chemist wagon is bad in composition.

Great. If this is Alisae, you need to stop and put your ego aside. Great both wagons aren't who you'd prefer. Say who you would prefer in case you die but plug your nose and vote one. Nothing else can reach 13 by the deadline. A no lynch is terrible.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

We have 3 hours and need one more Overkill vote.

If Overkill flips scum, I want Painting hanging.

[Cookie Bakers]

There you go.

~Titus

[Cookie Bakers]

That's hammer.

This town is so dumb. The 0ver lynch was obviously hard-pushed at the end to get attention off of Chemist.

I will teach you VCA at some point.

The Overkill wagon came before the Chemist wagon.

[Cookie Bakers]

How did the chemist wagon even get traction, it's led by wizard and Ovek11l..

because anyone with a brain can see it

Oh yeah I scumclaimed as an OBVIOUS JOKE, WHICH I STATED AS SUCH BETTER LYNCH ME

For everyone's reference, this was the post where Chemist hardclaimed scum:

There's no way a wagon on me this fast doesn't have scum on it

VD's vote was the best I think because he actually evaluated my slot beforehand

BS's progression on 0verki11 is so weird but it's really blatant (pun subconciously intended) so it's kinda towny

Karnage's was bad because the check on whether the wagon would go through sounds like a stalling tactic, but if he had legit reason to vote me he didn't need to make that post

VOTE: Karnage

jumping off/on the 0verki11 wagon again. you must be exhausted

I was under the assumption that the 0ver wagon wasn’t going through

He "was under the assumption" that the largest wagon wasn't going through,

while he (Chemist) was the second largest

. That only makes sense if he's scum and knew that the lynch was going to be manipulated (they were likely still planning to push JW at that time).

Faulty. I'm not going to say why as Chemist could reply. If we were in a hood, I'd explain.

[Cookie Bakers]

Well, at least I didn't have to hit submit on that Overkill vote I guess.

Do it in case my math is off please.

[Cookie Bakers]

That's hammer.

This town is so dumb. The 0ver lynch was obviously hard-pushed at the end to get attention off of Chemist.

I will teach you VCA at some point.

The Overkill wagon came before the Chemist wagon.

That doesn't explain how the 0verkill wagon got hard-pushed at the end of the day, vs the wagon on claimed-scum.

That's a fallacy in your post. You can argue scum indicative but there are other interpretations.

Always look at alternatives preflip unless mod guilty.

[Cookie Bakers]

He admitted having knowledge of how the day was going to go that was at odds with the existing wagon state. That's more than a mere scumslip.

Here's your fallacy. There's multiple ways to interpret the wagon state.

[Cookie Bakers]

He admitted having knowledge of how the day was going to go that was at odds with the existing wagon state. That's more than a mere scumslip.

Here's your fallacy. There's multiple ways to interpret the wagon state.

0ver was the top wagon and Chemist was the second one. A townie in that situation wouldn't simply assume the 0ver wagon was going to disband, certainly not without hard pushing an alternative.

Again, not all townies think alike. Not all scum think alike either.

[Cookie Bakers]

What exactly is the endgoal of a scumteam that's derailing the best alternative to a lynch on scum? I don't think I've ever seen that happen.

Wizard needs to reach it himself. Otherwise we help Chemist if Wizard is correct.