DEFCON Mafia 5.0: GAME OVER - NEW AMERICA FORMED

[gorilla]

Hello everyone

Let's do Total War


My reasons are as follows:

1. It hasn't been done before
2. More town-directed kills
3. Scum will have to be held responsible for their shots
4. Things will end faster and we can all get on with our lives sooner

[gorilla]

That's okay because Total War is the choice for True Patriots

[gorilla]

Wait, it has to be literally unanimous? that's so dumb, I'm going to send an angrily worded PM to AlmasterGM that he won't read

VOTE: FOR

anyway

[gorilla]

Why does it have to be unanimous, this is undemocratic, it should be decided the American way, by a group of people who live in Ohio while everyone else's vote is literally irrelevant

[gorilla]

I would like to voice strong objection to the flavour being that communists are the bad guys here when clearly it should be the other way round

-M

I've found my first nuke

[gorilla]

unless you nuke samantha

As much as she has earned my eternal ire, I think she is probably town.

[gorilla]

Fair warning: I will probably vote for whatever wagon is largest regardless of my actual reads, in the hope of accelerating this game to the part where we get to shoot da nookz.

That being said, here are my reads.


GOOD:
Cephrir
Et Al
samantha
Pooky
Equinox
Titus
Prism
Save The Dragons

EVIL:
Church of Skitter
Vaxkiller
Nexus
T3

Null reads are for pinkos. We're at war, pick a side.

[gorilla]

awkward simulpost, was trying 2 burn myself

Still works IMO

[gorilla]

It's okay, we can work with the terrorist to defeat the communists. This will surely not have unforeseen consequences down the line that end up blowing up in our faces.

[gorilla]

Oh fuck.
I was supposed to draw scum this game.

This is DEFCON MAFIA. You're supposed to be a TROLL.
I don't know how to troll as town! Shit!
Uh...don't suppose someone here can teach me?

VOTE: Total War
That's the troll thing to do, right?

Scum

[gorilla]

I am dead serious about instanuking gorilla if I wind up picking silo

: (

[gorilla]

I bet pooky leaves his silo in ABM mode all game

Ultra bait

Oh yeah I should mention

Don't do this, basically ever. UT won the last game because he did it and managed to convince people that it was a town blunder.

-S

LMFAO

[gorilla]

so we submit our choices for troops as soon as defcon 4 starts

troops are like PRs it seems. i think all else equal we'd like town to have these powers?

troops are unique. only 1 person can have each troop. there are more players than troops, so not everyone gets one.

if there's a conflict with drafts (i.e. two or more people want the same troop) than whoever submits the PM to the mod first gets it. lmao.

therefore, i propose we hammer into defcon 4 at some coordinated or agreed upon time in thread, to maximize the ability for townies to procure their desired troop. we have the advantage of numbers, scum have the advantage of coordination: we should try to even that playing field.

at the least, all townies should have the troop draft PM to the mod ready and waiting to go as soon as we enter defcon 4.

this is assuming i'm not misunderstanding something about the mechs. plz correct me if so.

He changed the randomization to timing? That seems silly.

joqiza can be town for pointing this out and trying to strategize around it, though.

[gorilla]

Gorilla, Prism, Sam, are giving out vibes but I'm not sure if they're town vibes or scum vibes.
Weak incline on town vibe for sam, but I'm not sure how I feel about the town bin.
I'm no sure how I feel about Deasveal following up as third either, not that I have a single clue what the difference between Def con 3 and 5 is. I took it to mean "more talky" "less nuclear"
I know we're here for the nukes, but the only reason we're all still here in this not nuclear wasteland is because people slowed down a little.

Scum

[gorilla]

Then again, I kind of do, do that back and forth wishy washy stuff as scum too. It's just, obviously I wouldn't be the first one trying to give out reads and playing in RVS.

A blank post would have been more informative.

vote Total War

let's get to the nukes

also, 10 pages already huh

You have my permission to skip them

[gorilla]

with regard to role drafting, I'm going to quote this from the previous game. The point about drafting the submarine is a strong one.

Subject: DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

Defcon 4 Guide

Ignorance of the rules is no excuse. Understand things before you make your selections.

1. You get to choose between being able to nuke/defend from a nuke ("missile silo"), and having a PR ("troops").

2. If you choose "Troops", you get to list which PRs you want in the order that you want them. You don't need to include all the items; it can be as little as one. There's a draft, where you're more likely to get things high on the list than low.

If you don't end up with anything on your list, you get a missile silo.

The troop choices are:
Fighter: Rolecop
Espionage: Cop (one faction at a time)
Aircraft Carrier: Roleblocker
Battleship: Doctor
Radar: Tracker (does not track night-kills)
Counterintelligence: Framer/lawyer
Submarine: Anonymous daykill (starting D3)
Eavesdrop: Get PMed 1/6-1/3 of scum QT
Air Base: Immune to night actions
Fallout Shelter: Immune to daykills
Fail Safe: Vengeful

3. Scum get to coordinate their checks. We don't.

4. The SK gets one free pick, outside of the draft.

So, with all that in mind, some advice:

1. Do not choose missile silo. Do not do this.

If all you want is a missile silo, choose Troops and list Submarine as your only choice.

It's critical that we keep this out of scum hands. We may not be able to stop the SK from getting it, but we can make him use his free pick on it, and we can keep scum from getting this altogether.

The more people who do this, the better chance that town gets Submarine instead of scum.

You either get a Submarine, which is awesome, or you get a missile silo, which is what you wanted to begin with.

2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base. I'd also advise against going for Submarine -- leave those to the people hopefully following point 1. Fighter, Aircraft Carrier, Espionage, and Battleship are all really good powers that deserve top spots on your list -- at best, you'll get one, at worst you'll make it harder for scum to get them.

3. I'd really advise putting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.

4. WIFOM it up in the thread. Town benefits from a certain spread to the selections, but only if scum don't know what it is.

[gorilla]

folks, after further research i have learned that not only are troop drafts based on whoever PMs the mod first in defcon 4, but defcon 4 itself starts not when deadline is reached / when defcon 5 is hammered, but rather when the mod posts that it is defcon 4

not sure i'm a huge fan of this system but when in rome

@mod can we please use the randomization to resolve drafting conflicts that was in prior games? having it be timing based is arbitrary and unfair

[gorilla]

people sleeping on eavesdropper

completely shuts down mafia coordination if town gets it

That way lies pain and misery my friend

[gorilla]

I'm totally lost.

Ask in the mafia QT for help

[gorilla]

?

[gorilla]

Probably not

[gorilla]

I'm a red blooded American patriot and I will take you to court for your libelous acusations

[gorilla]

The rules prevent me from unleashing my nuclear fury on you immediately

[gorilla]

You know what they say about liars in mafia games

[gorilla]

deep city lights probably drew scum and decided they didn't want to play

[gorilla]

I'm not acting any different than the last game we just played together as both town, and you hard town read me there.

Actually, you are, and it is specifically

because

of the differences I'm seeing between that game and this one that make me think you're scum here.

Can you explain these?

[gorilla]

I refuse to believe a scum Pooky can fake this. No.
mastina, can you explain your Vax read? He looked reasonably towny to me.

I am certain he was going to play like this regardless of his role and you should not read too much into it in that regard, although I think he has been fine so far.

[gorilla]

Honestly the pressure on mastina feels more awkward than mastina herself, I called out her entry post but seeing that it was a joke makes it effectively null, her reads are just whatever to me, definitely think if she's town some scum saw her as an easy push (Church and Lady's "votes" look iffy in that regard).

I don't have super strong scumreads right now which might just point to an inactive team of Russkies.

If I could vote right now I'd probaby just be shrug voting VFP. It's a cheap read but I think it's the best lead I have right now.

[gorilla]

I know that I've seen her do it as scum like in another game she had a very similar opening where it was like, trying to be scummy, and sometimes as scum mastina likes to be scummy and then slow and progressively get more town later on. That's basically what she explained she was doing in Turn of Camn inside the scum PT so like I pretty much have nothing else better to do with my vote so........

Well the first post was a direct reference to the previous DEFCON game, so likely preplanned regardless of alignment.

My vague recollection of old mastin was reams or words regardless of alignment but as scum it was empty noise. Here? Her reads don't really amount to more than gutreads ATM despite the verbosity,

why is VFP the best lead you have atm?

I think deep-city-lights picking up their role PM but not actually confirming is likely scum indicative. That's an angleshooty read but it is what it is. Can't ignore it.

I don't have super strong scumreads right now which might just point to an inactive team of Russkies.

Also weird question but no reason not to ask it:
What series of pages do you feel like scum were just absent?

You are right, that is a weird question. I wasn't thinking of anything in particular, but there are a number of people who haven't said much so far:



Now, some people are probably just chilling and not taking the game very seriously. But I also think scum might show up early, place a vote for confirmation, and then simply not have the motivation to stay in thread for continued discussion, because they have no interest in hunting. I'm not saying every lurker is necessarily scum but I think attention should be given to those slots when the game proper starts.

[gorilla]

I'm finding it really hard to stay interested in mafia at the moment but I don't see why people have gorilla or myself as town. This is very par for the course, mastina's read makes no sense even if I feel she's town anyway, and gorilla really hasn't done anything special either except for 664, which is a good post.

All my posts are brilliant, thank you

[gorilla]

Seduce me with posts that make uninteresting observations on probability uwu

There is probably 1 scum in the last 4 players on the player list

This feels like a rather flippant and reductive dismissal of my reasoning.

You are right, that is a weird question. I wasn't thinking of anything in particular, but there are a number of people who haven't said much so far:

[image]

Now, some people are probably just chilling and not taking the game very seriously. But I also think scum might show up early, place a vote for confirmation, and then simply not have the motivation to stay in thread for continued discussion, because they have no interest in hunting. I'm not saying every lurker is necessarily scum but I think attention should be given to those slots when the game proper starts.

tbh I'm not sure how this answer actually helps me. Can you list of a range of pages you think just doesn't have scum posting in them?

No

[gorilla]

42 pages is too long for a pregame phase. No time to catch up tonight, will do so tomorrow

[gorilla]

There is only death!
VOTE: DeasVail

I don't particularly like mastina right now but I think this might be the better lim.

VOTE: Vaxkiller

Silent vote from a player who hasn't done anything all game on to a townread of mine.
Hmm...

VOTE: mastina
I'm good with this, but would prefer something else.

This is scum, FYI. Second quote in particular reads incredibly forced

[gorilla]

jsyk i'm basically ignoring mastina's reads list because they're tedious. I could see her as scum but I'm also shit at mafia so who knows.

I lie. I read the readslist to watch myself slowly sink lower and lower like the pit of depression I exist in.

Tonally these posts struck me as town.

[gorilla]

look the sense i got was that there was weird vitriol towards her and i guess it's similar to how people treat sam in that sense, bc people are really awful to him sometimes, but i'm not sure the situations line up in my head besides tha

I sense there are personal feeings seeping into the vote. I'm not sure that it's alignment indicative either way though.

[gorilla]

I thought Merlot was pretty towny before the replace but that was based entirely on a surface-level skim, mognet seems all right.

I think joqiza is town, I think marry not understanding how to do the draft is a towntell. Bell is town. Reads not as strong beyond that.

[gorilla]

The fact that Et Al has Church of Skitter as scummy puts them immediately on my shit list. I didn't share the same concerns as everyone on S_S but I think the Church slot's reads are very natural and the questioning organic

It is bad because it is specifically Mena/Skitter whose dynamic I saw in 2181

Ya I'm honestly not sure if there is anything else that's even worth having my vote on tbh.
Cephir is probably fine
Bell is probably fine but I need to keep an open mind
Prism is probably fine but I should probably be keeping an open mind
Pooky is showing us that he is proud to be an American
gorilla seems probably fine
Equi + Reck seems fine so far but I need to keep an open mind
Sam is probably fine

These are all natural even if underexplained. I disagree with gorilla town but understand why people townread him, for example. Equi+Reck was another one that stuck out to me the same way, as is Sam. IIRC Mena had a weird theory about reading me from 2181 but that is the only moderately red flag to me here.

I disliked these posts from Prism quite a bit, but she replaced out before I could question her about them. The reasoning here in defense of Church felt strained, giving one liner reads that mostly call people townie without much support is a very easy thing to do and I don't see why she'd have found them "natural".

[gorilla]

The fact that Et Al has Church of Skitter as scummy puts them immediately on my shit list. I didn't share the same concerns as everyone on S_S but I think the Church slot's reads are very natural and the questioning organic

It is bad because it is specifically Mena/Skitter whose dynamic I saw in 2181

Ya I'm honestly not sure if there is anything else that's even worth having my vote on tbh.
Cephir is probably fine
Bell is probably fine but I need to keep an open mind
Prism is probably fine but I should probably be keeping an open mind
Pooky is showing us that he is proud to be an American
gorilla seems probably fine
Equi + Reck seems fine so far but I need to keep an open mind
Sam is probably fine

These are all natural even if underexplained. I disagree with gorilla town but understand why people townread him, for example. Equi+Reck was another one that stuck out to me the same way, as is Sam. IIRC Mena had a weird theory about reading me from 2181 but that is the only moderately red flag to me here.

I disliked these posts from Prism quite a bit, but she replaced out before I could question her about them. The reasoning here in defense of Church felt strained, giving one liner reads that mostly call people townie without much support is a very easy thing to do and I don't see why she'd have found them "natural".

You realize I am Prism, well not literally that’d be awkward Kupo. We’re the same slot.

Oh, awkward, I thought you replaced Merlot because the replacements happened close together and I wasn't paying attention. Well I like what you're doing so far so I'll keep an open mind

[gorilla]

I think church is trying to string up mognet over an incorrect scumread and it's scummy. I don't scumread joqizahim but mognet picking at someone for hedging is a perfectly fine method of reading and his overall play is very town motivated

[gorilla]

I've read up to page 50 and I'm taking a break but I also feel like posting something, partly so that it looks like I'm doing something and partly because I might forget what my thoughts are otherwise.

But here we go.

People I think are town:

LLD
Mognet
Pooky
Et Al
Koto
Church
Titus
DeathNote
samantha97
marry

--

If you didn't make the cut, I'm sorry. But you still have between page 50 and 60 to make it onto my list so there's a chance!

Can you explain these a little bit? Just a sentence or two for each one would be fine.

[gorilla]

I don't scumread joqizahim but mognet picking at someone for hedging is a perfectly fine method of reading and his overall play is very town motivated

This take is extremely surface level dude.
First off its not a fine method of reading it straight up isn't something that scum actually does and the logic behind it is ass. His play is town motivated if you aren't reading the game closely and you just see his posts on a glance and go "oh ya this is town ig" but to me it reads like he's doing everything to look town. I think his stance on total war comes from scum who wants to stand out in a playerlist where everyone just wants to get to the nukes. I think he's being anti-total war because if ur scum in this pl and you try to hard to actually want to play mafia, you're probably going to get townread by a bunch of people who just want to get to the nukes as quickly as possible. This also allows him to establish a platform or a "bloc" that he can invade to make sure he doesn't get nuked later. It's like the entire theme of his play.

Oh and also joq is probably town which means its more likely for the dude to be scum.

Scum have rarely opposed total war in this setup and his reasoning was the reasoning many town players had when I first played this setup

Bad logic doesn't always come from. I've seen townies vote off terrible logic. I think what he is saying is understandable for a town aligned player even if I don't agree with it, and I think scum often like to attack townies with bad/illogical reads

[gorilla]

EBWOP:Bad logic doesn't always come from scum.

[gorilla]

I think church is trying to string up mognet over an incorrect scumread and it's scummy. I don't scumread joqizahim but mognet picking at someone for hedging is a perfectly fine method of reading and his overall play is very town motivated

Yay! I have erected a house for you to come in for my block. Who else is in it gorilla?

Also let Church do their thing. They’re trying to sort me. I am not sure if it’s a scum thing or not yet but it is weird. I think LLD/Church/Titus has at least one Russian but Titus’s response seems way more scummy than Church’s.

I think Titus seems like disconnected town. I wouldn't take that read to the bank but it's what my gut says

[gorilla]

I think church is trying to string up mognet over an incorrect scumread and it's scummy. I don't scumread joqizahim but mognet picking at someone for hedging is a perfectly fine method of reading and his overall play is very town motivated

Yay! I have erected a house for you to come in for my block. Who else is in it gorilla?

Also let Church do their thing. They’re trying to sort me. I am not sure if it’s a scum thing or not yet but it is weird. I think LLD/Church/Titus has at least one Russian but Titus’s response seems way more scummy than Church’s.

I think Titus seems like disconnected town. I wouldn't take that read to the bank but it's what my gut says

Regarding the block question, I think Bell is town because people who now him have insisted on it + he got up my butt about calling an early post of his scum and asked me about it later, like he didn't want to let go of it. marry made a post where they said they thought they had to submit a list of all the roles in order for the draft and i think that is much more likely to come from a town perspctive.

I understand why you dislike the hedginess of joqiza but he did make posts early where he pointed out the (bad) change to the draft system to be timing based and had wanted to try to exploit it in a protown fashion. Not locktown forever status maybe but I wouldn't want him irradiated early.

I had an early gutread on samantha based on her explanation surrounding voting against total war, didn't feel like something scum would lead off with. But that read is quite stale now, I haven't been paying attention to what she's said since then.

[gorilla]

Also agree with Et Al as town

[gorilla]

I'll hammer when I get off work today, which should be around 6pm cst

Limiting my catch-up time is scummy Kupo especially with no reads.

BRO YOU HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN CATCHING UP YOU'VE JUST BEEN PLAYING SHUT THE FUCK UP

IF YOU'RE GOING TO CATCH UP AND READ THE GAME, GO FUCKING READ THE GAME INSTEAD OF PLAY

I can do both Kupo.

Read while quiet and respond when I do.

These are not mutually exclusive

No you can't because you can't understand how we got to this point in time w/o having read the game.
Most scum say this and never actually read-up.
I want you to shut up.
I want you to read.
I want you to give the thread some fucking space to breathe.

And when you're done, then play.
Because I feel like you're just saying this w/o actually reading up, and its fine to not read the game just be honest with yourself about it. You don't have to read every game you replace into, but saying you will when you're not at all doing that and then accusing someone of limiting your catch-up time is wack

Why are you talking about "space to breathe" when most of the game has agreed to pile onto mastina and fall asleep otherwise? Who is mognet not allowing to breathe here?

[gorilla]

VOTE: T3

I said I'd vote on the largest wagon but you don't need my help to push it through so I'm going to make a symbolic vote.

[gorilla]

No

[gorilla]

also entity may just be scum lol

Now this is interesting

[gorilla]

What I find interesting is how Equinox reads you as town when you post shit like *this*.

I was hoping Church would further explain their read of you because it seemed spicy in my view

[gorilla]

I remember liking Equinox. Not this game, just in general

[gorilla]

Since I seem to have not been clear enough: Church, why do you think The Entity may be scum?

[gorilla]

Can you explain the Lady Lambadelta one?

Why did you ask about that read

[gorilla]

her main utility to scum was served by confirming to them that there was no town eavesdropper.

Let's just say I am the town mirror version of this kind of thinking.

Robert is very likely town.

[gorilla]

So I have a little spiel: I went and looked at the previous DEFCON games, and in 3.0 and 4.0, the only ones to use this alignment distribution, there were actually very few group scum who tried to draft troops - in both games only 1 got a PR, and the rest were silos, although one in 4.0 tried to draft eavesdropper and missed out on it. The simple fact of the matter is that most of the PRs are simply not that useful to mafia compared to a silo. Take something like counterintelligence - while theoretically a framer/lawyer is beneficial to mafia, the likelihood of it ever coming into play is very very low - there's simply too many night action targets. A silo by comparison is much more practical. Especially given mastina's flip, I would bank on scum only having 1 more PR - the only ones with real appeal are espionage, battleship, and maybe fighter. Keep this in mind for when people start claiming.

[gorilla]

Reading page 75, I still think samantha is town. I don't think mafia raises the possibility of a bus after their teammate got hardshoved, far more likely to hang back and stay out of the way. No utility to asking that question as scum. (I think LLD will sort herself at this point, though)

Anyway, I think the mastina wagon is probably filthy with scum - she was getting hardpushed and her role had absolutely no value. I think examining the votes there is likely to prove fruitful.

PookyTheMagicalBear
gorilla
Prism
Cephrir (fastest backtrack in the west: I thought his opener was scum but his posts since then make me think town)
samantha97

If there's a single scum at the top of her list it's the Prism slot, otherwise I think this list is likely town as I suspect mastona's a player who tries to be honest as mafia and only townread town.

I also think mastina's vaxkiller scumread was mafia fosing a town, I don't think that was distancing.

Add Bell and joqiza as townreads and I think that's solid.

[gorilla]

Third parties went silo/aircraft carrier and air base/submarine in previous games (taking the submarine as the free pick seems optimal imho). I don't think you can clear someone with troops of being SK.

[gorilla]

There is only death!
VOTE: DeasVail

I don't particularly like mastina right now but I think this might be the better lim.

VOTE: Vaxkiller

Silent vote from a player who hasn't done anything all game on to a townread of mine.
Hmm...

VOTE: mastina
I'm good with this, but would prefer something else.

To the end of looking for scum in mastina voters: I think this is a good place to start.

VOTE: T3

[gorilla]

You realize gorilla Kupo that I received Prism’s missive right?

Therefore your argument does not make sense unless you are arguing I was bussing Mastina?

That does not follow.

I'm never going to townread someone who was making a defense of mafia on a day 1elim. It takes a gutsy sort of player to do that, but for all I know you could be some kind of don corleone playing on a secret alt.

But I'm not interested in voting you right now either. I just don't super townread you.

[gorilla]

mastina (13) - Vaxkiller, VFP, Lady Lambdadelta, The Church of Skitter, The Entity, Titus, PookyTheMagicalBear, marry, Nexus, T3, Cephrir, Toogeloo, samantha97

Vax doesn't make 284 teamed with mastina. I doubt they were bussing out the gate

VFP replaced deep-city-lights, and mastina agreed with my angleshooty suspicion there - I think that's townpoints for VFP, but the way he followed on to the vote and the comments he made around it don't inspire confidence. 1176 is very strange. I don't like him opening the day with an immediate vote for marry either, I think marry is overall town and just because she didn't understand the reasons for scumreading mastina doesn't make her scum.

LLD willsrt herself, like I said. No sense tinfoiling.

Funny thing: I totally thought Church and Entity were scum theatering yesterday. Now, meh. I'm content to leave them alone, will reread at some point but I sort of expect scum to be trying to hang in the background

I don't really think Titus sheeps that vote the way she did as scum. could be wrong, not a strong townread,

Pooky died a hero and should be buried in Arlington

marry is a townread for other reasons. I actually think mastina bantering with her about seattle in 769 is townpoints for them because scum bantering about non game related things is very pockety. 1192 doesn't look like a bus vote either.

Nexus I could see as a busser. Had some posts as tonally town but just kind of went with the wagon without a real sense of progression.

Cephrir I think is just town on play and mastina's reads etc

Toogeloo is faintly town but not someone I'd clear

samantha is very likely town.

so, T3, VFP, Nexus are the ones I'd look into in the immediate term

[gorilla]

I'm hearing a rumor that mognet is a Prism alt

[gorilla]

Can you talk about your Samantha read gorilla Kupo? I do not understand how you have her very likely town.

I find Church and Nexus and Titus the most likely bussers but VFP gives me pause.

I agree with most reads though. Can you elaborate please?

Scum is not going to immediately accuse LLD of bussing day 2. Not going to happen. Sure ticket to death. Beyond tat I thought her motivationns behind the vote against total war were town, and I still think probably ,mastina has that thing where she only puts town at the top of her reads.

[gorilla]

I'm hearing a rumor that mognet is a Prism alt

That rumor is incorrect.

I am not the human Prism.

I am pretty sure that replacing into a game as alt would be poor form into the same slot.

This moogle would not do that.

If this moogle replaces out they replace our.

Sounds like something Prism would say. mognet confirmed Prism alt

[gorilla]

Naw, T3's playing just like he did last game. Hes good.

Single-game meta is a logical fallacy.

[gorilla]

i'd just like to take credit for being the second person to call mastina scum. a shame gorilla beat me to it

I chickened out of the read so you can take all the credit

[gorilla]

why T3?

see 1367

full disclosure: I didn't really think mastina was flipping scum but saw no reason to oppose the wagon. I don't think T3 looks any better in light of the flip

[gorilla]

VOTE: VFP

[gorilla]

As a general announcement: in the future if you believe someone is acting inappropriately toward another player, please just report the posts and move on. Thanks.

[gorilla]

I could vote for either leading wagon. I don't town read either of them.

This is the right attitude to have. It's no worry sweating over who to kill - come defcon 1, a lot of people are going to be dying, and I think the first order ought to be getting rid of everyone who doesn't look towny enough.

[gorilla]

I checked Robert M Hunter's games and he's capable of much more as town than what he's done here. I still think there's a decent chance he flips town but can't really shield him on the basis of a (soft)claim alone.

To that end, my "not towny enough" list:
Deathnote (had thought maybe bored town but the first line of 609 pings)
Koto (while possible Merlot's replace out was frustrated town, haven't posted any useful content)
VFP
T3
Robert M Hunter
Nexus
innocentvillager (would not be surprised if prismognet's was also town frustration but expect someone will kill them sooner or later)


Theese people are in my category of "not high posters but towny enough for now":
Toogeloo
Save the Dragons
DesVail
Titus

Do I think all scum is in the low end? No, but I think we clear out that first group and see where we land. I think optimistically we get 2 in that group and then start looking for the harder scum.

[gorilla]

If anyone has feedback on that list, if you think a name should be added or removed, feel free to say so.

[gorilla]

I think t3 and VFP are probs town.

T 3 def more town thatn VFP, but both.

Okay, why?

[gorilla]

It's allowed but if you're town you shouldn't be doing it.

[gorilla]

I think t3 and VFP are probs town.

T 3 def more town thatn VFP, but both.

Okay, why?

I've played recent games with them both. T3 is acting what I think would be town. VFP is a little lackluster, but probs town.

If I had to kill one? VFP I guess.

There is a reason I interrogated this: I think weakly hemming and hawing at names in the POE is profoundly unproductive and more likely to do harm than good. There are names in there I feel are likely to flip town but I see no use in defending them and I recognize my own fallibility in my reads (I certainly didn't get day 1 right). If you can't bring real good reasons to townread them then you're just ruling people out for bad reasons. So far your only argument for T3 is ""playing excactly the same as last game". But is a one game sample enough? How much of his play is attiributable to his townplay, and how much of it is solely derived from personality? Without a scumgame as a comparison point this reasoning falls flat. Neither has posted anything in this game thread that feels like a strong towntell to me and the vagueness of your response pretty much shows me you're playing largely off feelings rather than anything concrete. I don't think that's a winning process

Additionally you are treating this like it is a standard game of mafia: that we are limited in our kills and are going one at a time. This is untrue. Starting tomorrow, a lot of people are going to nuked. To that end, the most productive use of all those kills is killing people who are never going to be worthy of clearing.

[gorilla]

are there PRs in this game? or do all ppl of the same alignment get the sam e role PM

yeah i know i probably can get the answer to this by reading but... im illiterate and tired sigh

Roles were drafted, read the OP

[gorilla]

I reiterate that this posturing over wagons is tiresome and every current suspect should probably be getting glassed on day 3 barring something like a cop clear on them.

[gorilla]

I reiterate that this posturing over wagons is tiresome and every current suspect should probably be getting glassed on day 3 barring something like a cop clear on them.

I'll x2 this.

Of the list gorilla had earlier the only slot I'm actually interested in trying to save is the mognet one. Will go into that tmrw more @Vax. Rest can get chopped afaic.

That last one is more of a concession in the "someone is probably going to off them anyway" department, although I get it.

Do you have any other reads?

[gorilla]

No one should be calling specific shots, a POE list is enough.

[gorilla]

Equinox and I both have Nexus as vaguely town-ish for reasons that aren't strong enough to actually defend him from a wagon but at the same time "he isn't scumhunting" is very weak and bad, which is fine, but the level of commitment to the wagon doesn't exactly match the fervor of the case.

I would kind of agree with that sentiment but at the same time do you really think robert is more likely to flip scum?

[gorilla]

My other pocket scumread is Church btw because they keep shading people I think might just be town playing poorly. They did it with Mog earlier and with Rob just now. They're relatively active I guess and if either of those slots flip scum then Church is probably just town. But that's the other slot I keep feeling like I wanna vote in the back of my mind rn.

I was actually going to bring them up, because I was reviewing their ISO earlier to clarify my read on them, since I hadn't liked them early but felt that might have biased my perception of their later posts. And on a look back, my view was more or less unchanged: they don't look like they're interested in solving the game. I don't like it considering the volume of their posting, a disproportionate amount of which is focused on arguing with mognet in a way that seems intent on tearing him down. I also agree with the sentiment their attacks seem mostly geared to attacking people for bad/illogical play moreso than scummy behavior.

By contrast, the entity, another slot I had vague gut twinges on, looks all right. The way they engaged with mognet looks like they were actually trying to reason with him and get through to him. Timing of the mastna callout on reck's entry into the game also looks good.

[gorilla]

@gorilla

Townbloc
Vaxkiller
gorilla
LadyLamdaDelta
T3
SaveTheDragons


I think Titus and Cephir are town too, what are your opinions on them?

I reviewed your defense of T3, and I have to say I don't really find it convincing. I find his vote on mastina hellaciously awkward, and given his inexperience I could easily see it being a bus especially given how he was initially resistant to it.. Further, looking at his ISO, all his reasons for his scumreads have been pretty much garbage. There's trying to shade bell for "high postcount low content" (300), attacking DV for townreading deathnote for reasons T3 says doesn't make sense, (491/493), this incredibly awkward shade of RMH for silent voting (1085), saying VFP "almost felt over fixated on mastina fpossibly flipping scum" (2182), which is an utterly baffling read that makes no sense, and finally, a vote on Nexus for no reason at all (2226)


No, not only should he not be part of any towncore, he should be one of the first to go. There's absolutely nothing in his content that looks American to me. I want him nowhere near endgame and to suggest his name above many other people is insulting.


Save The Dragons, in my examination, crossed the "towny enough" threshold but isn't close to among my top town reads. He had a few solvy-looking posts, and his engagement with me felt natural - he expressed suspicion of me, I explained myself, and he backed down. Didn't feel agenda-driven. But I'm curious why you'd have him as a top town read.

I do lean town on Titus as well, not strongly there either but enough to not want her dead. I mostly think she doesn't approach the day 1 wagon the way she did as scum, and her conviction on Nexus feels genuine enough. I do think Cephrir is town off an early gutread and tonal reasons, and the early callout of mastina definitely helps. He's a name I'd feel all right towncoring.

[gorilla]

and also because she thought she was scum, but that was secondary

lol

okay thanks guys!

probably won't read D2 in its entirety but will try to at least skim through it

A significant majority of the content was people yelling at your slot (mognet currently remains top poster by a comfortable margin, for reference)

[gorilla]

The Entity (Equinox/xRECKONERx) - I think I'll just naturally townread anything Equinox posts because it looks like they're trying to solve so I'll also just naturally overlook whatever Reck is doing. Ya I think this is town I have no idea what fucking Kool-Aid Mena is on w/ this one. Actually I really need Mena back tbh the guy went MIA on me

Can you elaborate on this? Which posts do you feel are solve-y?

The interactions between you two (four?) continue to be exceptionally awkward

[gorilla]

whats the votes at. i also ummmm tbyatvvsibb

VFP (a bunch of people)
Some other people (who cares)

[gorilla]

Maybe if we spam a bunch of pages people will miss it since people don't bother on catching up page by page they just skim and maybe look for someone saying their name if they're really into it

[gorilla]

I take back what I said earlier, church is very town. (Also I want credit for calling this one, I balked at mastina but this time I held strong before he had made a single post)

[gorilla]

T3 seems not aligned with VFP guys what do y'all think

Why's that

[gorilla]

[gorilla]

So, that post I made yesterday about PR claims likely being town? Throw it in the damn garbage. VFP proved that's not the case, but he also VERY STUPIDLY spewed half the game as town with his twilight posting by admitting he didn't know how the draft worked. Anyone halfway competent or familiar with the setup would have provided guidance to their teammates on what to draft. That he indicated this was not the case narrows the group of suspects significantly.

[gorilla]

STD is probably town just for the reaction to mastina calling the dcl replace out scum, because you don't chainsaw a buddy against another buddy unless you just like losing games.

marry town as well because that was VFP's main push day 2. He's not looking to bus coming off a day 1 scum elim, he wants someone to frame for defending mastina even though it was beyond obvious scum weren't attempting to save her.

[gorilla]

mastina was scum and i feel like she would've spammed PT with her spec analysis on what to draft so im very confused about that

You would think so but clearly there was not much communication or coordination going on behind the scenes. Looking at the names, it's not as many as I'd have thought.

But I feel like Cephrir, The Entity, DeasVail, Church of Skitter, and Titus all would have spent time with their team talking about their draft picks. I was terrible at scum back in the day but I'd have done so as well, despite my mechanical blundering the first time I played this.

[gorilla]

defcon deserves better than a 2020-21 era "oh we rolled scum let's not even try" team.

Is that how things are now? Darn, and I was starting to feel like I might have improved at the game.

Mostly I am sad that pooky and LLD both rolled town this time and they got killed before being able to nuke anyone. That's cruel.

STD is probably town just for the reaction to mastina calling the dcl replace out scum, because you don't chainsaw a buddy against another buddy unless you just like losing games.

someone paid attention to something i said! that's rare

Well, because you FOSed me for it! But I don't think that's a play you make as scum.

[gorilla]

idk I'm going to take post-death mafia posts with a grain of salt

could have just been an attempt at a parting gift for his team

I don't think he's that skilled, he claimed scum in twilight in a newbie game as well.

On that note:

Robert crumbed (A bit more than a crumb I guess) as a tracker in my last game.
They flipped VT.

I could see scum Robert using this tactic just as much as town though.

I dont see scum Robert playing like this.
Seems to be frustrated town more than caught scum.
The problem is I don't scum read Nexus either.
I only really want to vote in these 2 if the deadline is approaching.

T3 isn't a town read of mine yet which could imply scum here, but I want another day to take the read.

Dragon pings me and I could lim here.
Outside if that I think better wagons are on Deathnote and Koto (since no one is interested in Marry today)

Whays even a case on Nexus here?

VFP strikes me as the cliche sort of player who'd vote a townie but FOS a buddy in his reads to distance. I think the indicators are pointing toward scum in T3/Dragons/Deathnote/Koto, and dragons strikes me as town otherwise so I'd bet on a scum in the other 3 (that this aligns with my POE is a nice coincidence).

I actually think his hesitiancy toward Nexus is potentially indicative of him distancing himself from a miselimination on town. I would not be in favor of a shot on Nexus at the present moment.

[gorilla]

hmm t3 is still alive huh

that might need to be remedied

I would heartily endorse this. Although Church said T3 looked unaligned with VFP in twilight, I was about to dispute the claim. T3 in his newbie game was an an overly bus-happy newbie scum, voting and attacking his partner right away and pushing on him for flimsy reasons, only reversing course later in the day when there were other wagons. To me his behavior around both mastina and VFP could easily fit that mold.

[gorilla]

Also, Cephrir is never a Russian based on how VFP interacted with him. That's an important thing to note as well.

[gorilla]

question, was VFP likely going to get wagoned based off of D1 play and N1 flip? or was it mostly just due to Bell begging about it D2?

basically i want to know at what people mafia started seriously planning around VFP's possible death

You know you can just look at the mod ISO for votecounts, right?

Votecount 2.2

VFP (4) - T3, Bell, gorilla, The Entity
marry (2) - VFP, Robert M Hunter
Et Al (2) - Nexus, Mognet
Nexus (2) - samantha97, Titus
T3 (1) - Cephrir
Mognet (1) - Save The Dragons

Not Voting [10] - DeasVail, Koto, DeathNote, joqiza, Et Al, Vaxkiller, Lady Lambdadelta, The Church of Skitter, marry, Toogeloo

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

Votecount 2.3

Nexus (4) - samantha97, Titus, joqiza, T3
Mognet (4) - Save The Dragons, The Church of Skitter, Vaxkiller, Lady Lambdadelta
VFP (3) - Bell, gorilla, The Entity
marry (2) - VFP, Robert M Hunter
Et Al (1) - Nexus
T3 (1) - Cephrir
Titus (1) - Mognet

Not Voting [6] - DeasVail, Koto, DeathNote, Et Al, marry, Toogeloo

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

Votecount 2.4

VFP (5) - Bell, gorilla, The Entity, Nexus, samantha97
Nexus (5) - Titus, joqiza, T3, DeasVail, Cephrir
Mognet (3) - Save The Dragons, The Church of Skitter, Vaxkiller
marry (2) - VFP, Robert M Hunter
Robert M Hunter (2) - Lady Lambdadelta, marry
Titus (1) - Mognet

Not Voting [4] - Koto, DeathNote, Et Al, Toogeloo

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

LOL @ T3 jumping ship to Nexus

[gorilla]

one nuke a day and it pops in 48 hours

or is it one nuke a game...

{

Once each day

, if the game is in DEFCON 1, you may attempt to kill another player by posting the command Nuke: [PLAYERNAME] in the thread.

[gorilla]

gorilla have you meta'd like everyone in this game or something?

literally

Doing a little background check on how flipped scum interacts with partners doesn't take much time. For the other stuff I'm just making snap judgments based on who seems leadery.

If you want a spicy meta nugget, though, I would say this: the kills so far point to the SK being a veteran. Not that SK hunting should be our primary concern at the moment, but keep it in mind.

[gorilla]

You know you can just look at the mod ISO for votecounts, right?

i looked at those, it doesn't really answer my question, it just tells me that they were *a wagon*

meh. i was mainly just curious because i want to know if the marry push at start of D2 is likely to be a distancing move for their eventual flip, if they were likely to go down i feel like that's more evidence for it being manufactured distancing. im not sure exactly where i was going with this thought, idk something something newby scum tend to be more predictable in their positioning around their partners. idk t's probably not that important

I would advise you to backread the relevant sections of the game if that interests you so much. But my own answer is no, he was not a runaway consensus scumread at the start of day 2 and was not playing like it.

[gorilla]

gorilla have you meta'd like everyone in this game or something?

literally

Doing a little background check on how flipped scum interacts with partners doesn't take much time. For the other stuff I'm just making snap judgments based on who seems leadery.

If you want a spicy meta nugget, though, I would say this: the kills so far point to the SK being a veteran. Not that SK hunting should be our primary concern at the moment, but keep it in mind.

*holds hands out for nugget* why would they point to the terrorist being a vet? their kills were pooky and one of et al / lady, right? i'm not following the logic of it being a vet from this. i figured pooky died because someone townread him and was annoyed with his roleplaying, and lady was Town, and et al i have no idea on that one. why is this vet play
im looking too far into this

I don't think the terrorist killed pooky for being annoying, they killed him because he's a formidable presence (which would be obvious to anyone who's played with him). People tend to be more likely to NK those they have some familiarity with.

But that's just a guess! I could be totally wrong.

[gorilla]

I don't think the terrorist killed pooky for being annoying, they killed him because he's a formidable presence (which would be obvious to anyone who's played with him). People tend to be more likely to NK those they have some familiarity with.

But that's just a guess! I could be totally wrong.

pooky was killed N1 in a game i modded because he was hardtunneling on a scum and had another in his small PoE. idk what he did this game but as long as his reads weren't terrible EOD1 and there wasn't an obvious kill target that's probably good enough for a NK

1. Pooky gave almost no reads other than Et Al as town as mastina scum
2. The N1 NK is from the serial killer, not the Russians. They wouldn't have any idea how good his reads were even if he actually had posted some.


It is extraordinarily tedious to be reciting basic thread history and have you contravening everything I say without having actually looked at any of it.

[gorilla]

should i just go for it or should i try to talk about it first i dunno what proper nuke etiquette is

From memory I think people nuked a lot faster in The Before Times, but times change, who's to say what's right

[gorilla]

I just looked it up for kicks: the first nuke in DEFCON 3.0 was 8 1/2 hours into DEFCON 1 (it killed town). DEFCON 4.0's was within 2 minutes of day start (it was on scum but got recalled).

(also, holy shit at swift justice's reads in 3.0, 4/5 at the start of day 3)

[gorilla]

i have a few thoughts: i think if someone nukes mafia, they're virtually clear right? mafia isn't going risk that at this point. theyre just gonna nuke town
also i dont really remember what we all thought about mognet and forgot innocentvillager was mognets slot. i think mognet was town for how buckwild they acted

I've heard tales of sickos who vigged their own partner and rode the towncred to a win. But I don't think there's anyone like that in this game.

[gorilla]

ive made some effort this game

im covert ops btw

n1 church
n2 toogeloo

Why those targets?

[gorilla]

guess no one cares that im dying :/ oh well

was fun while it lasted i guess

It's the nature of the game, sir. A lot of people are going to die. Worry less about clearing yourself and more about finding scum if you're town.

Truth be told I don't hate the toogeloo target necessarily (and I would assume scum would target a more vocal player) but it's not reason to spare you.

[gorilla]

if you abort a launch do you lose your nuke for the day?

You do lose your nuke, this happened in the previous game where someone aborted their launch. Unless there is very good reason to cancel your launch you should keep it on no matter what.

At this point the only thing I'd consider "very good reason" is a cop clear.

[gorilla]

i think that vfp vote would be a pretty lame bus

Most people are bad at bussing

[gorilla]

im not sure

im kind of complacent with the gamestate tbh with 2 mafia being dead already

if our backs were closer to the wall id probably feel more urgency to try to avoid my lim

ive literally given plenty of thoughts throughout my iso and you can talk to me about them if you want

Post like this makes me think you're just flipping scum. Fake fatalism/not wanting to give info.

[gorilla]

why is it fake and not real to you tho?

Your whole emphasis has been on woe is me and survivalism rather than scumhunting. What you are doing right now would be disappointing if you are town.

I understand being slated for death is demotivating but if you're town why not make the most of your remaining time?

[gorilla]

Why would you use covert ops on a non-scumread?

[gorilla]

DeathNote, would you like to be just DeadNote?

Don't ask permission from the person you're nuking

[gorilla]

Also, this feels like a good juncture to say: try very hard to not recall your nukes. If a claim would make you want to recall it, ask for the claim before you fire it. If someone goes incredibly obvtown after getting nuked, then it's justified, but make sure plenty of people agree with you that the reaction was obvtown. Otherwise you're just sacrificing town-controlled kills.

-S

This was the post, an I agree with it for the record

[gorilla]

assuming my pred was a very divisive and intense slot lol

pedit: lol rip. okay there is no point in efforting i guess.

That's underselling it. Until today they had the highest postcount in the game.

Efforting isn't pointless, if you're town I will want to hear your reads and keep them in mind.

[gorilla]

The thought occurred that it seems unlikely prism would draft covert ops as scum as it just seems so suboptimal a pick. Doubt creeps in.

if there is a specific thing that doesn’t take really long to do (like read 20+ pages) that anyone wants my opinion on let me kno tho I can maybe give it a shot

ISO some people? The game is fairly polarized in terms of postcount, people on the lower end of the scale shouldn't be too hard to read.


Seeing some suspicion of Nexus, but I really do think the way VFP spoke about him is classic scum defending a wagon on town to make them look bad. He had no problem bussing mastina and I don't see why he sees Nexus as a priority to save instead. I'm not hardclearing Nexus but wouldn't place him at the bottom of a POE

[gorilla]

Also, there's a good case for making POE reads use their nukes first if they have them so that they can be forced to shoot at targets we want. Otherwise scum being nuked will just shoot at obvtown (if any of the scum remembered to take a silo, lol)

[gorilla]

Oh. I think T3 is claiming Fail safe. Which sadly is the towniest thing he's done all game.

[gorilla]

imagine having 110 pages of game and your case being "3rd vote = scum"

It is one of the more compelling cases out there

Who do you think is potentially scum right now?

[gorilla]

I think T3 is almost certainly flipping town now but don't expect DeathNote to retract his nuke for any reason.

[gorilla]

Shut up EVERYONE JUST SHUT UP!

Be cool man be coooll...

I'm not crazy your crazzy!

Nuke: T3

DONT LOOK AT ME YOU SCUM BASTARD.

What a pro-town nuke.

I dunno about IV, I think he's town kinda. But I could be wrong.

I have zero opinion on koto.

Follow me and NO

IV needs a nuke

T3 needs recalled

gorilla why is this town?

Didn't feel like he and mastina were aligned based on the early game, conviction in his reads felt genuine

[gorilla]

A few people who I previously considered potential scum (nexus, toogeloo) are in my opinion less likely to be so now.

Why do they seem less likely to you now?

[gorilla]

I kind of want to intercept one of them but I want it to.. do something, you know?

T3 playing the way he has as failsafe (and taking it in the first place) has no scum motivation as much as I hate to admit I was wrong

[gorilla]

I'm sort of racking my brain for reads right now and struggling to come up with suspects.

I was toying with the possibility of DV-scum but it doesn't feel right after his posts tonight.

[gorilla]

I think I'm going to just step away for the night and try to take a fresh look at things tomorrow.

[gorilla]

An idea just came to be but this is is stoned ali so I don't know how good this is.

I think we should leave Robert alone.
If we want to, actually read this player, then I feel like the pressure of losing the game will eventually break him and make force him to play the game and post readable content.

I think this is correct, but I'm not 100% sure on it being correct.
It's based on the logic that he believes that his death will have no impact on the game. That's why he sees him dying as him getting what he wants.

In the late game if he is scum and genuinely think that this playstyle will coast him to victory, late game is going to come and he is going to be exposed in the late game. He's not someone who can win F3 unless he puts in an actual effort.

If he's town then if he wants to win in F3 he's going to have to actually, work a tiny bit, for it, or at least by the time we get here, the movements he has made would have made logical sense to come from scum.

Basically I think if it's resolve itself as the game gets smaller and it becomes more important to actually give a fuck.

Not sure how good this is or if this is any good at all or if it's just straight up bad (I also just realized I'm defending the guy who has counterintelligence so on the basis of that alone I should just be okay with this guy dying)

Because I don't want to encourage this behavior and I don't feel okay townreading it if it'll mean that he's can just go do this in his next game. Because the guy obviously needs to just learn how to play the game.

Here's the thing about Robert, and I mentioned this yesterday: he very clearly knows how to play the game. In that view his current play is inexplicable and unhelpful. I'm left in an awkward place where I'm really not comfortable with him endgaming, but also I don't want to be the one that kills him so I can have a clean conscience.

[gorilla]

Whatever. I feel like I owe this one to LLD.

NUKE: Robert M Hunter

[gorilla]

RMH, if you're town, feel free to suicide

[gorilla]

10 years and I finally get to launch a nuke

Look how far I've come

[gorilla]

I’m assuming that scum making a nuke are not necessarily going to let on that they are scum nuking?

Okay so I kind of sound like an idiot now huh.

But still aren't you like, the only thing protecting major town players?

I think someone outing themselves as scum by making a silly nuke is a worthy trade off by someone who would have been night-killed otherwise.

Realistically I’ll probably be too scared of the possibility of stopping a kill on scum to intercept the nuke on T3, but I am going back and forth over his ISO atm so we will see how I feel.

PEdit: no worries, I don’t really know what I’m doing. I’m honestly surprised that I got my first choice of troop given that I submitted very late.

Bell, I need to know who nukes in order to intercept. Also my understanding is that submarine is a troop option for everyone, so it could belong to scum or town

In the past, scum who were doomed to die by nuke just fired off a nuke at obvtown in retaliation, but Strategic Missile Defense wasn't a role in DEFCON 3.0. Given the apparent confusion I'm not even sure how many scum even have nukes.

[gorilla]

Shouldn't we force everyone we suspect to nuke T3 then.

People wouldn't suicide regardless, it's anti-wincon regardless of alignment.

Anyway, I aso tried to draft the submarine with the rationale of denying scum power. My second choice was Espionage, simply as a hedge to avoid any possibility it goes unpicked. Those were the only two roles I submitted.

[gorilla]

Good to know Gorilla. Thanks

By the way, what's your read on me?

[gorilla]

So Robert's just ignoring this game, huh

[gorilla]

So go and dance yourself clean... ooow
Go and dance yourself clean yeah
You're blowing Marxism to pieces
Their little arguments to pieces

It's your show
It's your show
It's your show
It's your show

[gorilla]

I think I have a hard time reading DSV, but my polite scum opinion hasn't been shook.

From vague memories, DeasVail is always polite. It's not a scumtell for him.

There were some iffy doubts I had toward him because it felt a bit like he was playing it safe, in a manner of speaking, but I feel like he doesn't react to STD the way he did if he knows koto is flipping Russian, and merlot's posts toward him looked like scum buddying a townie.

[gorilla]

VFP came into day 2 pushing marry with 1828, doesn't look like a bus. Aside from that I don't have rock solid reasons to townread them, the thing about not knowing how the draft works is NOT a towntell like I thought it was before it was revealed what a state of disarray the mafia team in this game was in.

[gorilla]

VOTE: toogeloo

[gorilla]

Expected outcome, really.

[gorilla]

Nexus read for me is mostly tone. Think he's probably town but not a bet the game level read.


Anyway I think I'm going to head off and come back tomorrow evening when robert is a glowing green crater.

[gorilla]

I'm fine with that, I'm not going to try to stop it. I'm just telling you my flip so you can move on to more exciting things.

Just suicide, then.

[gorilla]

Nuclear missiles are deadly – even if you aren’t killed in the initial blast, a slow death by radiation is sure to follow. If you aren’t tough enough to handle the grueling experience, there is an easier way… {If you are being targeted with a nuclear missile, you may post I do not wish to die a painful radioactive death in the thread. This will cause you to commit suicide and leave the game immediately. ***WARNING***: This command is irrevocable and cannot be reversed or prevented by any means, including the battleship, fallout shelter, or abort launch. If you post it, you instantly die.}

[gorilla]

I do not wish to die a painful radioactive death

Thanks for the tip.

It was fun playing with you all!

Good job on catching so many scums, keep up that momentum.

Don't come back.

[gorilla]

Respect is earned, not given, and he played in a way that disrespected everyone in the game. I've no regrets.

[gorilla]

I won't belabor the subject anymore while the game is running. Currently fine with my vote being where it is.

[gorilla]

VOTE: Titus

[gorilla]

gorilla what are your thoughts on Equinox?

My main thoughts were this: I thought his reach-out to mognet looked towny, and that a scumteam with a hydra of players who have played DEFCON before would not be so disorganized. I don't know if that's enough to slot him over other people in my reads right now but I don't think I want him nuked today

[gorilla]

Also regarding samantha, it's somewhat silly but her being paranoid LLD had hardbussed mastina was towny to me because the same thought had crossed my mind.

[gorilla]

Sorry for basically neglecting this game, I didn't have much motivation to keep up during the weekend for whatever reason. (The game IS getting to the point where it's hard and a bit of a grind).

re: marry, I feel like people are gravitating toward suspecting them on the basis of being quiet for an extended period, but looking back I don't think I see it. There's the thing already discussed where VFP came out the gate on day 2 trying to push them, but also this was one of Merlot's first reads on replace in:

okay so on a skim of marry: +town because i think that she is more likely to be this comfortable as town rather than scum and would more likely be unwilling to be so buddy buddy especially knowing joqiza is in the game, he was like the only one here who knew her meta before i joined and he’s well aware she is a very charismatic/social player so doing something like she is in the absence of friends is more beneficial to her then in this game where i feel she’s just vibing

Does she drop a bold townread on a partner immediately after replacing in? Why does VFP try to bus a slot that wasn't suspected by most? I don't know, it doesn't seem to fit. Is marry's overall content strongly town? Probably not.

Equinox's slot is one where, well, I can see reasons for townreding it as I've outlined but I'm not sure it's good enough here? Other people have been more town. Similarly, I'm looking at Titus and I'm not sure how far boldy, confidently wrong can go. I'll look over church's defense but honestly I really don't like meta reads based off pure blind faith, if there's something tangibly different in their play between alignments it should be able to be explained.

I don't really see Vax as scum here off how he's utilized his PR (although I am quite irked he didn't out his clear on T3 when he could have potentially been saved).

I don't know, I can see scum motivation in taking air base but I'm not sure I'm feeling it. I guess I'll do a quick re-read.

[gorilla]

Biggest thing going for samantha maybe is the timing of her vote on VFP and the self-righteousness of her defense that feels believable? Urgh. Both votes on mastina and VFP were fairly low-key though and her case on deasvail isn't great except I'm not solid on DV-town either. Can't find any reliable reference for her scumplay to see if the selfmeta is accurate either.

[gorilla]

So I have been playing quiet...er because I got espionage. I happened to be the toilet when I saw the PM asking for troops. I did not want to rock the boat and draw to much attention and end up like Pooky/LadyLabdaDelta

You pushed mognet pretty loudly and were pretty aggressive w/ it.

Yea, and then I pulled back.

Should I really have outed myself to save T3? I really wanted 1 more day before I had to rely on the doc to live, I realize it did not turn out that way as im out now... but still...

Yeah because then we'd have an un-nukeable clear. But what's done is done.

[gorilla]

Mmm, read samantha in the booneytoonz game and she only voted her partners when she was the counterwagon to them, small sample size so not a strong conclusion but especially given the VC at the time, the timing of her vote on VFP looks good. Entity was also there early, so...argh...

Votecount 2.4

VFP (5) - Bell, gorilla, The Entity, Nexus, samantha97
Nexus (5) - Titus, joqiza, T3, DeasVail, Cephrir
Mognet (3) - Save The Dragons, The Church of Skitter, Vaxkiller
marry (2) - VFP, Robert M Hunter
Robert M Hunter (2) - Lady Lambdadelta, marry
Titus (1) - Mognet

Not Voting [4] - Koto, DeathNote, Et Al, Toogeloo

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

[gorilla]

Entering tinfoil land right now

[gorilla]

Eh I'll have to wait til later in the day to read deeply

[gorilla]

I could see that I supposed as the air base is an extremely terrorist motivated pick (although I'd have probably used the free pick on it). I don't really feel like terrorist hunting yet, though.

[gorilla]

joqiza, I can't help but feel like something is going wrong and there's someone we're overlooking. The PoE doesn't feel right. Do you have that feeling?

[gorilla]

joqiza, I can't help but feel like something is going wrong and there's someone we're overlooking. The PoE doesn't feel right. Do you have that feeling?

Yeah, I was thinking about the game at work today. I know I probably have very little credibility rn, but Vax being PR feels like a missing puzzle piece.

I still think marry and Equinox slot are town, and I still think DeasVail is probably town. I still think the Mognet slot is town too, but I kind of wish Nexus had let the nuke go through now just because I feel like the whole game hinges on that slot being town for me, and I need to know if I'm getting fooled. I think the claims from Toog/Vax are also +town and may even be self-resolving.

Sam and Titus I don't know, but I feel like they could be town. Church's strong TR on Titus... made me re-think things, not because there was any argument levelled with it, but because I feel like that's less likely to happen in the first place in a town!Church/scum!Titus universe, if that makes sense? It could be TvT, or it could be scum!Church with TMI, but... I still think Titus maybe needs to get resolved at some point, but I find myself looking into town!Titus universes anyway following that post.

The slots I keep coming back to rn are... StD/Church. As weird as that sounds, it's honestly where my head keeps taking me.

You mentioned in your reads you have reservations on church. could you explain those?

[gorilla]

Wait what's the mech behind Cephrir villager?
I forgot

He's confirmed non-Russian via Vax (though rather annoyingly I think I had him as town off mastina anyway)

[gorilla]

I'm sort of disappointed that ceph fired off there. I think sam is likely flipping town and she was early on VFP.

[gorilla]

I don't understand why I am being put in the PoE

Anyway, you're not, at least not in my book. I just wanted to see what joqiza would say about you.

VOTE: joqiza

[gorilla]

Disappointed that didn't get questions, but I'm serious: What actual good reasons are there to clear joqiza? I don't think the mastina thing is convincing in and of itself.

[gorilla]

okay, he opened the game with mechanical spec of trying to exploit the draft. But is that impossible to fake? no, and even if we could have coordinated ending defcon 5 it's not like scum can't just plan in the PT to be around then. I also get the feeling he might just be ore comfortable talking about mechanical things?

and sure, he outed that he was the sub, but that's an inevitability anyway due to the way defcon goes and not claiming it would be seen as a scumclaim really.

But when I look at that votecount I quoted earlier, I noticed he was on the wrong side of the VFP/Nexus wagons when they were relatively equal in strength.

Votecount 2.4

VFP (5) - Bell, gorilla, The Entity, Nexus, samantha97
Nexus (5) - Titus, joqiza, T3, DeasVail, Cephrir
Mognet (3) - Save The Dragons, The Church of Skitter, Vaxkiller
marry (2) - VFP, Robert M Hunter
Robert M Hunter (2) - Lady Lambdadelta, marry
Titus (1) - Mognet

Not Voting [4] - Koto, DeathNote, Et Al, Toogeloo

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.

While I think VCA is generally a fallacy, I feel like there probably was scum tryin to take advantage of the Nexus CW, as at that point in time there was not a particularly strong argument being made against VFP. And T3 and Cephrir are confirmed non-russian.

And so I looked back at his ISO, and in general, I felt like the signal to noise ratio was fairly low. This is a generalized thing but I feel like he wasn't pushing much in the way of scumreads. Yes, he had that big wallpost, but I feel like scum are more likely to contribute in that sort of big pre-constructed block form where they can get everything organized and not do it as frequeently, it's harder to imitate the town solving process of sporadic bursts. And in general the scumreads he has had have been not good. I don't like how he pushed nexus, in hindsight I don't like his church read as I think it may hav been trying to take advantage of my suspicion there, I don't like him trying to chip away at townreads on save the dragons for nuking koto.

and I looked back on his ISO, and here's what he had to say about flipped scum:

also not to deflate the very spicy mastina wagon, but i'm pretty sure we don't lim anyone in defcon 4

so @mastina to be clear the unnerving thing about your read was the fact that you said you townread me AND marry. She really has not been present enough to have much of an idea abt her alignment besides rand. it's not that I'm saying you're WRONG it's that I feel like as the resident marrytologist I haven't even given my professional opinion yet... it's all a bit premature.

Maybe I'm being unfair tho and what you're saying is that you're putting us both town cuz if one of us is scum at some point in the future you'll know about it cuz one of us will snipe the other... and that's true... probably.

Worth noting that marry is kinda busy rn I think so may not be the uh final occupant of her slot

im a bit distracted atm so wanted to review the game on my own time / at my own pace, but i don't think mastina is a terrible lim here. the way she townlocked us was a bit weird marry

okay well if i do end up voting mastina i want it known that i have no ill will against her! actually i loved a lot of your posts @mastina, your one about me and marry bouncing sound waves off each other was super cute and made me smile. i didn't get the sense you're a bad player or anything either, actually i vibed with a lot of your reads and content but my concern is actually that you know too much. some of the conclusions feel reached before i can understand how the underlying evidence led you there

i think i'm willing to hammer mastina, but i want to give her a chance to speak first

He passively accepts the mastina wagon, but is sort of awkwardly hesitant to vote for her and tries to stall the hammer. That was the post that started off the whole mognet debacle, but in hindsight, it feels like he mght have been reluctantly holding off on a bus?


Meanwhile, on day 2, he tries to clear VFP off mastina interactions. Being wrong isn't a crime but I really didn't like the way he talked about it on a look back. He asserts the defense confidently at first but gets quieter as the wagon grows (until church implies VFP's been guiltied and he votes there), it's not a full-blown defense like Titus.

FWIW i didn't get the sense that the dcl/VFP slot was aligned with mastina I just think he's off base here

VOTE: Nexus

I don't really have a big lead here but I want to see what shakes out. nexus has seemed like he's been hunting more for 3P today, and his vote yesterday seems compatible with a bus to me.

not 100% sure what the VC is but for transparency i'd consider switching to t3 too.

i don't read vfp as aligned with mastina rn. she seemed interested in possibly limming his slot and he was also striking a course both yesterday and today that's very visible and gains him no favor if he's scum. i feel like his pushes/shades are just gonna end with him getting nuked

prismognet, bell, entity, marry, cephrir, lld, gorilla, and robert m are in my town* bin

* town here being simply not russian. i've no idea how to look for terrorist tbh. in terms of info and alignment they just seem like spicy town rn.

deathnote, deasvail, vfp, toog, titus, sam, and vax i also kinda think are town but im not as confident as the aforementioned

i want to clarify this because this thing often happens in games where i end up defending my townleans more than my actual townreads. it's just a function of consensus and who ends up pressured.

Bell fwiw I acknowledge 2187 and I do think vfp's 2060 was a bad post. i'll noodle on it. the underlying activity read doesn't speak much to me.

Bell idg where the confidence comes from and I'm still stuck on VFP. I took another look and I really.. don't think the slot is aligned with mastina.

- his call-out of cephrir for being scum if mastina is town felt uninformed of mastina's alignment
- I think he believes his marry read

If he flips scum I think he flips terrorist. Which would be hype but that feels like a lottery ticket read to me. This is the kind of situation where I'd usually offer a quid pro quo to resolve the deadlock, i.e. you lead my vote today, if it flips town I lead yours tomorrow, but I don't think that'll work in this setup cuz tomorrow is gonna be about the nuking.

That said on rr I also felt like this was a better representation of where my head's at rn:

VOTE: Church of Skitter

There's a lot of people suspicious of this slot but no one's quite taken the step to vote them, so let me be the first.

If the dueling wagons remain between Nexus/VFP my vote is still spiritually on Nexus ig but tbh after the rr I don't care for either. Nexus is sort of like +scum above rand versus Church which is an actual scumread. I don't TR T3 either. I think my stance on Robert is clear.

I don't think anything VFP did is unfakeable either. He is a townlean, not a townread. Idm if the wagon goes through I just don't care to be on it.

And then he basically just says...nothing about merlot/koto at all before that slot is killed? Like not an attempt to read it, not a suggestion of its alignment, nothing. He doesn't even mention koto's name before he's dead.

And then there's stuff like this, the way VFP spoke to him:

EM was nuked we cant share the game but i in fact do love to bus partners the second its viable for me, ill just confirm it. use it if u want

well i've seen her play mafia before and she knows how to bus. actually she's hardbussed several times before and she rarely defends her partners as directly as she did w/ mastina against LLD. i think her frustration with LLD was genuine too altho the frustration is less AI.

also like i said earlier i really doubt the mastina wagon was some big shock to scum. there was a fair amount of pressure on her the day before. also LLD wasn't even the first vote on the mastina wagon. she was the one that actually effected the lim but i believe she was the third or fourth vote. so the wheels were already starting to spin at that point.

Care to share the game?

LMFAO i can't literally my whole site (EpicMafia) got nuked and i have no records

on god though it happened i'll cite the games from memory:
- marry bussing Luciokek in Werewolves vs. Mafia 1.5
- marry hardbussing dia d1 of some game nbt hosted
- marry hardbussing Flygon slot d1 of the game I hosted before SPF subbed in for Flygon

prolly others that i can't remember. i actually can't prove it but i think you'll believe me, it would be absurd for me to be lying about this i think

That's fair enough. I'm not going to argue true or not, but I'm also not going to change my read as different situations matter.
I'll consider it though.

look i'm gonna be honest

i feel uncomfortable knighting for marry so hard and i think if she's town she will be able to demonstrate she's town on her own

i think she's just town who thought the mastina wagon was weird, tried to engage, engaged with LLD, realized what LLD was saying, then went "welp" and realized she was boutta look scummy af if mastina did end up being mafia

it's just my 2c

I would believe this more if Marry still didn't believe their town read.
Realising what LLD is saying would be a response of "Yeah mastina has a good chance as scum". Not "what i've said about mastina's reads list stands" just before voting there.

I get it probably just looks like a small petty reason, but it was a small reason that made me happy with mastina scum as well.
It's plausible I'm wrong, something just doesn't add with the responses.
Either Marry did cave in and just go along with LLD or Marry didn't change their read and went along with LLD.
I feel the vote would have more confidence if the second one. Even more so how Marry is being described.

hmm

maybe it will help if i kinda share my perspective

i basically don't know any of you other than marry, i don't play here very much. actually i've been doing this thing where i play on different sites w/ different communities because i've been trying to better figure out tells that transcend personal meta

when playing in different communities for the first time i've noticed there's sort of a "web" of meta that already exists among people who know each other

when a bunch of people on d1 start SR'ing another person for meta reasons, it's often a decent climate for a scum flip

even if i can't see too well myself, i can sort of read the gamestate in this fashion

i believe marry's attitude may have come from a similar place here. personally i wasn't 100% sure on mastina, but i did think the atmosphere was conducive for her to flip scum because of the people who knew her SRing her. i think marry had similar comments and i think this could explain her position on mastina's wagon while independently TRing her.

does that make any sense @VFP?

Okay, maybe I find this harder to understand as nothing was meta for me yesterday.
But I think I get what you are trying to say? Meta normally suggests alignment in situations like that to players that know them, so you know it's probably a good lead, but don't see the scum side yourself?

My opinion doesn't change even with this information though.

For my money, it looks like scum talking to scum. There's no tension here, the tone is diplomatic, VFP never tries to read joqiza.

There's also the bit of merlot. Look at how merlot describes her townread on marry:

okay so on a skim of marry: +town because i think that she is more likely to be this comfortable as town rather than scum and would more likely be unwilling to be so buddy buddy especially knowing joqiza is in the game, he was like the only one here who knew her meta before i joined and he’s well aware she is a very charismatic/social player so doing something like she is in the absence of friends is more beneficial to her then in this game where i feel she’s just vibing

Fairly detailed, I feel like this is a "genuine" read with real reasoning. Her read on joqiza?

also i think joqiza is +town for his reps of marry obvi

Much shorter.



Like in general I'm just thinking...this guy has absolutely no russkie scalps, why should I be considering him as an american?

[gorilla]

The real gist was gotten from reading the ISO but I can't really convey that in a compact way.

[gorilla]

I'm a sucker for cases.

Me too, I often fall for my own cases on town.

I think the marry read is genuine regardless of his aignment.

[gorilla]

I don't want church nuked.

[gorilla]

Yeah, church guaranteed the wagon on VFP by assuming he was red checked and pushing people to vote there when they would have no reason to out that as scum. Then they snapped at him for claiming scum in twilight and he responded in a non-partnery way.

[gorilla]

in hindsight I don't like his church read as I think it may hav been trying to take advantage of my suspicion there, I don't like him trying to chip away at townreads on save the dragons for nuking koto.

I don't feel this is a fair comment either, as the way I remember it I mentioned my scumread on Church and then you agreed with me, not the other way around.

Hm, you're right, I don't think I'd explicitly verbalized that before. My memory sucks.

[gorilla]

I still don't like his reads!!

[gorilla]

Well now I feel bad

[gorilla]

you look happy in ur pfp

my jimmies are starting to become rustled

[gorilla]

The roles are independent of alignment

[gorilla]

But as far as I'm concerned aside from the cop they don't matter

[gorilla]

Uh aight

nuke joq

Intercept this please

I thought you were a vote count person

[gorilla]

As a cop claim he has to keep giving innocents even if he's fake and eventually answer to not being dead

[gorilla]

Looks like a scum post

[gorilla]

ceph is copped though

I have some deep paranoia terrorist read but it's not rational

[gorilla]

I mean
a terrorist would want to kill the Fighter. It's what threatens their existence the most.

Oh that's so big brained

[gorilla]

I'm actually pissed off looking back at VC 2.4 and seeing we have multiple nukes on players that were on VFP rather than on counterwagons. That seems so wrong.

[gorilla]

my jimmies are rustled

[gorilla]

I will gladly take him being mafia that leaves the cop alive to keep getting innocents

[gorilla]

Strategic Missile Defense: Strategic Missile Defense systems are meant to intercept long-range ICBMs before they reach their target. {Once each day, if the game is in DEFCON 1, you may shoot down another player's nuke by posting the command Intercept: [PLAYERNAME WHO FIRES THE NUKE] in the thread. It will take 24 hours for the rocket to intercept its target. You may cancel rocket launches by posting Abort Launch in the thread up to 12 hours after firing. Interception, like nuclear strikes, continue regardless of whether the game is in day or night phase or whether the launching player is still alive. Note, however, that if the game enters night phase a launch cannot be recalled as the thread will be locked.}

He's intercepting the nuke fired by johnny, not the one fired on him.

Nominally I'm fine with joqiza living another day because that's still an extra nuke in play when we start winnowing things down.

[gorilla]

VOTE: Titus

[gorilla]

I really do want to flip the counterwagon though

[gorilla]

Gotta flip someone, right? I think there's some utility in keeping DV around and the only other option would be...IV, which to me is decidedly meh at that moment.

[gorilla]

That's not justification for the vote as much as it is me being fine with the intercept for the time being even though I cased you a few pages back

[gorilla]

Eh I could vote IV still

[gorilla]

Nooks still in play: church, johnny, STD, Cephrir, Titus, gorilla, joqiza. That's 7 total.

marry's slot is either a silo or exactly radar. I would expect the NKs to be toogeloo and a player with a silo. That takes us to 11 alive, with 6 nukes we can bring the number down to 5. We eliminate a vig today and that number goes up to 6 which feels less ideal. I think leaving the most vigs around is the proper mechanical play here.

[gorilla]

(because of course my mechanical play in defcon 3.0 was stellar and definitely did not lose the game but for a modkill because pooky tried to execute a fake nuke)

[gorilla]

I have a really hard time seeing Prism taking covert ops as scum but I don't really townread the slot enough to put it in final 5.

[gorilla]

I don't think she's russian but is potentially terrorist. I was going to say I wouldn't expect terrorist to draft air base rather than using it as the free pick but greyice did it in 4.0. In theory there's an argument for recalling the nuke and investigating her, but. Urgh.

[gorilla]

(of course, I could say "Is potentially terrorist" for basically everyone this game)

[gorilla]

Oh it's fully immune to night actions my bad, thought it was just NKs

[gorilla]

VOTE: innocentvillager

[gorilla]

Gorilla, the past 48 hours or so has had me lose a bit of faith in my strong early town read on you. You're waffling a bit more than any of the rest of the time you've had in the game. Maybe the game state is getting to you, but you're worrying me a bit.

I think waffling is fairly natural given the state of the game. But I think there's a difference between me saying I think someone is likely not a russian but not a strong enough read to take to a hypothetical final 5 and outright waffling on a read. I still think flipping the Nexus CW is good, still think the marry slot is unaligned with the russians and suspicion there is mostly owed to them flaking, I don't think I'm

that

shaky.

[gorilla]

Won't be my problem after tonight. I just hope if you're American, you can find the proper common ground with your fellow Americans.

I still can't scumhunt for crap tbh

[gorilla]

Yall are way obsessed with this nexus wagon

2 of the 3 on it are in your POE too!

[gorilla]

And if everyone on it was town then we probably need to rethink our assumptions

[gorilla]

Marry is almost certainly the radar, IIRC they said they thought they had to submit a list with all the roles on it.

[gorilla]

to answer your question i'm more interested in tone, trajectories and associatives than vote counts

also believable scumhunting, we like to see that

I mean, the vote count in and of itself is an association of sorts. I can understand not wanting it to be the be all end all but I think it's at least worth using as a springboard to see how people were behaving around a wagon on flipped scum. That's valuable to me.

[gorilla]

Or did some of you fuckers put literally EVERY ROLE IN ORDER instead of getting a silo

IN MY DEFENSE I THOUGHT THIS IS WHAT WE HAD TO DO AND THE SLOWEST PEOPLE GOT SILO. I WAS QUITE SLOW.

[gorilla]

Hm. I feel like I remember her saying she might want to nuke me.

joqiza i guess its cuz youve mostly been.. not defending me exactly but clarifying me to the table and its hard to read for content outside of this, and i havent taken time to read your posts that werent RE: me. like i should, i just havent yet and kinda wanna blow shit up and figure your alignment out later cuz if i think youre mafia im gonna wanna nuke you and i dont want you dead. does that make sense

Ah, hmm, you're right. (watch this turn out to have been a bluff and we all get disappointed)

By the way, in looking at marry's ISO: it's not just the fact VFP was pushingthem on day 2, but the way they responded to him. There was a real frantic urgency to try to explain themself and get the point across, it did not look like scum arguing with a teammate. That slot should not be nuked under any circumstances.

[gorilla]

I reread IV and am still ok flipping there