DEFCON Mafia 5.0: GAME OVER - NEW AMERICA FORMED

[gorilla]

His suggestion of a recall on koto coupled with his posts after koto's flip where he tries to deflect responsibility to others doesn't sit right with me. It's like he didn't want to take responsibility for his own misread. In general has been stuck in catchup mode.

[gorilla]

with the response to The Entity making very much sense to me as town who really wanted to get into this and had the wind blown out of their sails or whatever the term is supposed to be.

I kind of agree

But why can’t she be scum getting the wind blown out of her sails

I did consider that, but particularly if entity is town, it’s like, why do you care about town complaining about you being anti-town when you’re actually scum? I don’t get it.

I think we should talk more about this point and consider recalling Koto

LOL ok

Koto - As much as I hate to bring outside influences into this, I strongly doubt Merlot would have replaced out in the circumstance that she did if she were scum. The frustration with my slot would not have been the same.

i will admit to being partially swayed by this reasoning from DeasVail and Equinox

The thing about that second post is, no one had really brought it up after the flip. It feels like trying to pre-empt blame as a result of a guilty conscience.

[gorilla]

I have no comment on Sam nuke beyond a vague sense of unease and a general dissatisfaction with not being able to solve.

Can you explain your scumread on DV?

[gorilla]

gg I was mafia

Cute but I don't buy it

[gorilla]

Can we just vote IV? I don't really see a reason he should be set as one of the top 6 towniest slots in the game and that's where the math is at for me right now.

[gorilla]

wait for the marry-sub cuz we can maybe just nuke him instead yeah?

That's fine I suppose I'm just antsy and get bored easily. Mostly wanted an opinion check there.

[gorilla]

We probably shouldn't be directing investigations to a specific target (a pool is fine)

Also if IV is russian you're lock town anyway

[gorilla]

church i agree w/ you about IV but vax has a huge boner for the slot and will just waste a cop check on him anyway if we leave him alive. also his role is functionally useless and i'm pretty sure it's optimal to leave more dayvigs alive all else equal.

I'm not sure I like this reasoning. Why would it be a "wasted" cop check if it'll help vax and friends solve.

I also don't get why its more optimal to leave more dayvigs alive when literally any nuke that johnny throws out seems awful for the village? Like that feels weird to me considering literally any nuke he threw out this phase gets intercepted by DeasVail which is exactly what happened

The point is we leash his kill tomorrow and that gets us one further guaranteed kill directed by town which gives us 5 alive after nukes instead of 6. Really all that matters is narrowing it down as much as possible. I have reasons to be skeptical of the entity as scum but I don't want the slot to live forever just long enough to nuke someone.

i would like to check people who might be mafia instead of IV who probably isn't

I don't think he should be copped, but is he one of your top town reads? Because that's really all I care about right now.

[gorilla]

Personally I feel like I'd want STD in my final 5 not just for the koto nuke. I don't think his overall play has been scummy.

[gorilla]

for me, Vax, Ceph, marry are basically non-negotiable, add whoever vax checks tonight. Church is up there as well.

[gorilla]

Can the people with meta familiarity with Bell give me a double check on him? I don't want to lazily rest on people's first impressions for a game critical decision.

[gorilla]

Bell is pretty town by meta

not positive about terrorist/not-terrorist if that's what you're asking

Can you elaborate on this? I hate vagueness.

[gorilla]

here including the VFP pleading felt more natural, he has conviction in what he's saying but he's not over-theatricizing anything which is what i might expected from an awkward first time yolo bus

Didn't he hardbus his partner in that large normal game?

[gorilla]

here including the VFP pleading felt more natural, he has conviction in what he's saying but he's not over-theatricizing anything which is what i might expected from an awkward first time yolo bus

Didn't he hardbus his partner in that large normal game?

link?

viewtopic.php?t=85745&f=160&st=0&sk=t&s ... er_sort=Go

CTRL+F for "luca"

Looking at it in context, it looks like it was a (very unnecessary) cross-bus

[gorilla]

From my survey of Bell's meta he's actually something of a compulsive busser as scum. It's one of his only tricks. I'm concerned by the lack of solving. This honestly feels closer to his scum meta than his town meta. His main scumnread for this phase has been that DV is "polite scum" and he could barely string a sentence together to explain it when I asked him. In his towngames I felt like there was a lot more depth of analysis, more thoughts flowing into the thread, more evaluation. I was on him early because his posts used a lot of words to make hedges but then people got up in arms saying he was obv town so I laid off. But I feel concern there and don't want people just townlocking him off "meta" because that feels game-losing.

[gorilla]

I know I was tinfoiling joqiza the other day but I actually think his response to being accused looks pretty good. To some extent even if his reads haven't been clearing he DOES feel very solvey. I think I'd be okay with him in a final group.

The reason I'm going through all this crazy tinfoil is because I have the sense I could die before endgame and I don't want people to necessarily be locked into static reads with no chance for re-evaluation. I want to consider the reasons for everybody right now.

[gorilla]

why did he bus VFP in the way he did this game then?

There's an argument that in this setup you want enough towncred to make it to the final group, and if you're someone who can't fake reads well as scum, bussing is the easy way to produce some kind of content because you can give an accurate scumread. It's possible that the aggressive confidence was never meant to get him killed either. Plus VFP speaks to him all of once.

I dunno, I'm not saying to kill him right away but I don't feel comfortable townlocking him.

[gorilla]

I care less about how my skim of some other game is/isn't accurate and more about what's going on in this one.

[gorilla]

Also, I'm confused because I thought Gorilla was an alt of a player with experience with me. I guess not. LCD soundsystem is maybe more of a popular band than I thought.

I just thought the line about "tearing marxism to pieces" was fitting, not sure what you mean

[gorilla]

Oh, that's weird. I just thought it was an entertaining semi-relevant song lyric. I stopped playing in 2011.

[gorilla]

Fwiw I also don't think scum bell comes in here, looks at my doomed ass and says "did it guys caught the scum" and then push me like this.

If you're town it's sort of exactly what I expect scum to do. *shrug*

[gorilla]

imo the guilty conscience thing doesn't make sens

I just got an email with Total War, Launches, and Let's Build A Zoo in the title

is some deity spectating this game and trying to say something about gorilla

the first two are both things I didn't do... maybe the deity was trying to say not to build a zoo

and that gorilla is mafia

The way I've played these last few real-time days is pretty much the exact opposite of how I'd want to do it as mafia. I've actively been burning potential bridges with my play by re-examining highly townread players that has in turn made people distrust me where before I was considered near lock town. If my win condition were survival, I am actively playing against it. I don't care about survival though (and, truth be told, would rather not face a potential tight endgame). My goal is finding scum and I don't care if I have to die along the way to be heard.

[gorilla]

imo the guilty conscience thing doesn't make sens

if i were scum and my buddy koto had one defender and they were going down i wouldn't just post a one liner that might save them, leave, then go "oh LOL i was kinda swayed by this reason"

it's just not really a scum thing to do

Are you going to tell me scum wouldn't try to safe their AFK partner from a nuke if other people were already defending them?

my russian poe kinda looks like

{Titus, DeasVail}
{marry}
{STD}

I'm going to reiterate: marry's slot is almost lock non-russian, scumreads there are unacceptable.

[gorilla]

oh yall are talking about me rn. VFP i catch what youre putting down, but i really dont have an explanation for you other than i learned a new scumhunting tactic/scope? from lady (mastina long baseless readlist) and good faith’d it, theres no shame in backing down when you think youre wrong???
furthermore not sure why as scum id fake claim eavesdropper, realize it was gonna confuse people, joke about it more, and my scum partner immediately flips eavesdropper? like please think about that

“ If you're going to defend someone, you stick by it or agree with the reasons given to you.” THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED? are we reading the same game

VFP, assume Marry is scum. Why does scum Marry fake claim eavesdropper multiple times?

Well since mastina was eavesdropper , it's probable scum discussed and wanted to use it with no CC risk.
I didn't take the claims I saw as hard claim though. mastina flipping eavesdropper negates that as any argument here.

yeah i mean it was a joke and i clarified no one should interact with it or take it seriously in the next post... didnt know mastina of all people was the eavesdropper

dude i dont know mastina and the proof given to me was circumstantial and new to me at best, i agreed with lady because she reached me and got me to think for a second of what i was even doing. scum!me never enters a table of strangers, soft defends my partner, and does a public 180 when it looks cozy to. thats telegraphed and seems like low hanging fruit

lld explained readslist bad
me not agree
lld pressure me
i get fussy and type long winded defensive reply. i pause and delete it to actually think about what lld’s saying. never thought about what mastina did as being a scumtell. i dont identify with that meta, i didnt think it was scummy and back in my home site i never thought it was scummy. but i could plausibly see the reasoning, and lld was so confident and knew mastinas meta, so i agreed. mastina is likely scum.
i didnt inherently scumread mastina. i didnt need to, and id be lying if i thought mastina was absolutely scum. i just learned and changed my skillset to not disagree with lld, and put my hands up where i have been proven that im not necessarily right. people view shit differently

“ I'm argueing that because they are scum it's a scum reason for doing so.” so you... conf-biased yourself into me being mafia so anything i do is scummy? ok dude just nuke me then i dont wanna play this back and forth with you if thats how it is..?

vfp ive spent this day arguing with you i havent read for scum and i want to nuke, you’re the one leading on me
gimme awhile to look at the actual gamestate, im mobile and mothersdaying

This is how marry responds to VFP in their argument. They're getting legitimately flustered by the attacks he's making on them. This is not scum distancing. Feel free to lay it on me if I'm wrong but this is one of the reads I feel the absolute most strongly about.

[gorilla]

I also don't buy titus' empty-handed vca that excused a nuke on nexus

Yeah Titus needs to be flipped

[gorilla]

I'll miss you samantha. Hopefully we can win this one for you.

[gorilla]

Hey Bingle! We've been waiting for your slot to claim and you should probably claim and try to read up soon.

Everyone else has claimed at this point, your slot is the only one left

[gorilla]

That was obviously meant to be @ Bingle, was just quoting for emphasis.

[gorilla]

Biiiingleeeeee

[gorilla]

Told you all.

Who did marry track?

[gorilla]

[gorilla]

The game suddenly got a lot easier

[gorilla]

Bell and Ceph, but the role pm says that I can't get results on terrorist attacks or stealth bombers, so presumably there are two different factional actions? One sounds like the nightkill, so the other is probably a factional RB or something.

Bell targeted VFP and Ceph targeted no one, btw. In that order.

The roles are drafted. Your info is consistent with Bell's claim of Fighter.

This means Bell is basically confirmed non-Russian and my earlier tinfoil was dumb.

[gorilla]

Congrats to IV - he had it first on the leaks. If nothing else he can be proud of that.

[gorilla]

New plan: Vax cops someone that is not Toogeloo, Bell, Bingle, or Cephrir (obviously). We kill everyone that isn't one of those 5 and hopefully win the game.

[gorilla]

I don't see much reason to let Sam live since their win condition isn't even attached to them being alive. They would probably kill whoever would prevent the most deaths or likely help with the game going down to the wire.

Half the game is vigs, lol. We don't need her.

[gorilla]

I want Vax to confirm he's seen that plan before we hammer.

[gorilla]

Also, Vax should cop someone who has a reasonable chance to be town, not a scum read. A guilty is less useful than an innocent here.

[gorilla]

So... Full claims list?

Cephrir - Silo
innocentvillager - Covert Ops
Save the Dragons - Silo
Vaxkiller - Espionage
Toogeloo - Battleship
Bell - Fighter
gorilla - Silo
JohnnyFarrar - Silo
DeasVail - Strategic Missile Defense
The Church of Skitter (Alisae/Menalque) - Silo
Titus - Silo
joqiza - Submarine
Bingle - Radar


Roles are listed at the bottom of 2

[gorilla]

IV should probably be targetting Johnny btw

Agreed.

[gorilla]

My point is that IV stopping Johnny is actually bad if Johnny is town.... which is still possible.

Like yes if we stop him from nuking that's great if he's scum but it doesn't change the fact that we have to resolve him?

I feel like it's just straight up better to let him have access to a nuke but tell him exactly who he needs to nuke and if he goes against that then his missile gets intercepted?

He dies in every situation tomorrow unless he gets cop checked and innoed but we can still use his nuke if he's town

Can Bell and gorilla engage me on this I want to hear from them

Yeah, actually, you're right that having fewer nukes means we have to have 1 more person alive which makes endgame harder.

I also don't think vax's target should be predetermined, I don't think it's at all likely that mafia would choose to NK them over the doctor, but I think there should be flexibility so that can't happen. Maybe give him a pool of likely town to check?

[gorilla]

What stops the last scum from just doing whatever it is they want to do

...the threat of nuclear annihilation? What are they going to do, openly shoot Ceph? Then they just lose.

[gorilla]

I still think IV is the best check for the gamestate tho

I actually thought about it more and I agree simply because him and Vax are never R/R (Russian/Russian)

[gorilla]

And unless there's a better action someone can think of for Bingle, I'd even say that Bingle should check IV to ENSURE he does nothing, given that Bingle can't track the nightkill.

Correct.

okay i'm off the mechs soapbox, sorry

No, its good, this is good. We want to do everything possible to ensure a win here.

[gorilla]

And unless there's a better action someone can think of for Bingle, I'd even say that Bingle should check IV to ENSURE he does nothing, given that Bingle can't track the nightkill.

Only other option I see from the claims would be me claiming Vax's target before Vax to prove my role.

I don't see why IV would be able to sabotage someone and live through it unless someone is fakeclaiming, though, so I think proving myself might be more useful for the same reason as IV doesn't need to sabotage anyone.

Roles are independent of alignment, so that wouldn't matter. Your slot is 99% town based on associatives with flipped scum, though.

[gorilla]

VOTE: samantha

[gorilla]

Surprising kill. I suspect something is fishy. Waiting on vax's report.

[gorilla]

On a gut level I don't think that kill ever happens if both toog/vax are town

[gorilla]

On further reflection that doesn't really make sense - optimal kill there was always someone you didn't want to be in the final grouping. But I can't shake the sense someone was being ruled out too easily.

[gorilla]

I have a theory but will wait for whenever vax gets around (probably the evening)

no one nuke until vax outs his report

[gorilla]

I feel dumb for ever entertaining a possibility otherwise.

[gorilla]

So what are all vaxs results so far?

T3/Ceph/IV all not russian.

[gorilla]

Ok. And we're willing to bet the game on vax being town?

No

[gorilla]

In fact I'm entertaining Church's suspicions from there yesterday. Didn't love the ISO on a re-skim.

I also feel like toogeloo being left alive is a sign that the remaining mafia just don't feel threatened by the existence of a cop? That's the conclusion I seem to be drawn toward.

[gorilla]

I accept this is a big fail if I'm wrong, but I think flipping there is high value at the present moment in time.

[gorilla]

I really goddamn don't. And I don't like him not outing his clear on T3 before T3 was killed off. I don't think his check on cephrir makes a ton of sense when he had expressed he thought cephrir was likely town the day before. And I don't care for the way he attacked people on a look bck.

[gorilla]

Is this setup such that there could NOT be a cop? Because no cc?

*sighs deeply*

The roles are independent of alignment and are drafted in DEFCON 4. Being a cop claim does not confirm someone as town. Espionage is obviously an extremely high value draft pick for scum as well as town.

[gorilla]

Eh, Vaxkiller did make several posts saying the nuke on T3 should be recalled, scratch that point I suppose.

I don't know, that's where my paranoia is taking me right now I suppose. We can maybe revisit this if Titus flips town.

[gorilla]

Toog who did you target

I targeted Vax. I didn't think the risk was worth targeting anyone else, but I was heavily considering targeting Bell during the day phase.

We have an alternative to nuking today, if people are willing to holster for a day.

We can No Eliminate today, and go into Night with all our current players and give Vax another person to clear. Scum will have to kill me at some point.

If Vax is town, scum can't keep him alive, they'll need to kill me to get to him. If Vax is scum, it'll be evident by the ambivalence of keeping me alive.

Scum are banking on misnukes to even the tables, if we sent them that, we force them to pull us out of WIFOM.

---

I'm only on for now because my wife and kids are out, but I won't be on later because I'll have my phone off.

I need to think about how the numbers shake out.

Right now we can kill down to 5. If we no eliminate, Vax can provide another investigation and scum either have to shoot a nuke or we can nuke down to 4. Then hypothetically we can no eliminate, if vax dies we kill everyone but his clears, if he lives he has to provide another report regardless.

I think the play here is something like no elimination and having Vax check DV?

[gorilla]

we nuke vax for confirmation

You can't nuke Vax today unless you nuke him twice.

He can suicide to spare us from having to use two nukes on him. I'm not sure if that's the road I want to go down anymore vs pseudo-follow-the-cop.

[gorilla]

Gorilla what's your marry/bingle read?

I made a post yesterday that I think the stuff with VFP makes the slot almost certain town, because the way marry responded to VFP was non-partnery.

My one flash of paranoia yesterday was that the bell check is a baffling check for Radar night 1, but that's true for both town and scum, really, so it almost feels like something to be chalked up to marry being a space cadet.

[gorilla]

cop gorilla imo

only way we lose if vax is town is if gorilla is scum and he can be a powerwolf it's not impossible but I kinda just think he's town

My scum game is nothing to fear, and at this point I'm playing without survival in mind. But I actually believe it's optimal here to cop non-kill power. Mafia either have to choose between killing clears or killing vigs, and leaving vigs alive means we get more kills that we can direct, which means we can nuke down to a lower number.

[gorilla]

Actually maybe I should just be honest with myself
I think the Bell kill was made because scum think if they make a kill that vax+toog if scum would make, then they could get people to kill Vax and Toog.

The reason I think its gorilla is because he's been in entire control of the game and he has been doing what he can to try to keep the game in a state of order that benefits scum

pedit: The reason I asked because it confuses me how you still think that VFP interactions clear marry but you're trying to move more suspicion onto me even tho you cleared me for what seems like a pretty identical reason?

I'm...not trying to move suspicion onto you?

[gorilla]

Regardless I think we can break the game mechanically here. If we direct Vax onto a player with a silo, the optimal play for Russians is to kill them. (this is why I don't believe I should be investigated). But if he checks someone without a silo, they're stuck with one or the other - either they limit the number of available clears while giving us more kills or they limit our kills but give us more clears.

[gorilla]

I never bother entertaining a tinfoil case there as scum. Has no value in making an enemy at that stage of the game. Just let people make the easy kills and drop that case when paranoia is setting in. Regardless, I've said repeatedly I'm fine dying before endgame. If you trust nothing else, trust that I want to play in a manner that mechanically boxes me out if scum.

[gorilla]

Honestly town clears on Silos is preferable. If we get to a point where nuclear fallout is inevitable, knowing which nukes are controlled by town gives us a plan able edge. I mean, at the end of the day, just allowing clears to happen regardless is ideal. Any player not cleared stays on the bottom of pile as an eligible nuke recipient.

I reiterate that the problem with this is that if we leash vax to a specific target, the russians just kill his check if they're playing optimally and we end up where we are now with 1 more dead american. Either he gets left unleashed or we leash him to non-silos. Those are the only options.

[gorilla]

oh, and I know defending myself isn't really that important right now, but VFP botching the draft doesn't happen at all if I'm scum.

[gorilla]

i took a reskim of the game from d2 btw and im up to that page tat's why im quoting this (yes i actually finally skimmed d2!)

also sorry for not obvtowning enough that y'all had to waste a check on me :/ not proud of that but oh well

The check's not a waste because it gets us closer to mechanically locking the game. Don't worry about it.

[gorilla]

Lol?

[gorilla]

Nuke: Church of Skitter

[gorilla]

I regret ever walking back my read there

[gorilla]

wow my reread did something useful

I love you

[gorilla]

This is the fate of all bussers

[gorilla]

This is the fate of all bussers

Bussing is a sin ya but what do you want me to do
did you see the 3 people that died before me.
the fuck am i supposed to do.

At least you didn't nuke your teammate in cold blood like pooky did.

[gorilla]

It's a hard setup. I think Samantha getting caught really hurt you and there was no way of predicting that happening.

[gorilla]

@DeasVail, when you read this, don't intercept the missile until we've had the chance to discuss. I believe we may have mechanical autowin, I'm just checking a few things now.

I think we just play follow the cop.

[gorilla]

Being the terrorist seems so cool

[gorilla]

No one tell him

[gorilla]

FWIW, the espionage claim is confirmed real because I tried to take it and didn't get it.

[gorilla]

Running it through in my head...yep, that is auto.

[gorilla]

However, I would urge the remaining scum not to concede so we can make the mod write entertaining flavor for all the deaths.

[gorilla]

let's also decide who nukes who (and that they confirmed have a nuke from yesterday) and make sure everything's good there?

also someone's silo could be in the other non-nuke mode right?

Yes, but anyone in defensive launch mode should be considered scumclaiming

[gorilla]

Also we wait out alisae dying as well.

[gorilla]

I'm going to be INCREDIBLY annoyed if it was JF's slot all along though and I cottoned on to that early and let it slide

[gorilla]

Functionally the names and numbers do not matter as long as we enter tomorrow with 2 clears via vax and enough nukes for all but 2 people (which means Toog/DV/Bingle have to perish). The plan as established is just the cleanest and least confusing.

If Titus continues to be non-compliant we just court martial her via ICBM.

[gorilla]

You can launch, but no one should suicide until the Church is closed.

[gorilla]

Well my reads still suck, but I guess all's well that ends well. Not the most thrilling of conclusions, but I enjoyed...most of you, obvious exceptions aside.


It was an honor returning to serve with you all one last time, but now I must bid you farewell and return to monke.

Lt. gorilla, Over and Out.