FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Shielder]

Hey, didn't realize this started! I'm going to get to catching up on my lunch break in a few hours

[Servant Shielder]

Anyone who has not done so already should go read Cabds comments from the first game on the preliminary master vote. The short version is decide on a charismatic player to receive it, and let them either lead town or get taken out entirely if scum.

I'm up for this. Of course role needs to be considered to an extent but whoever it is should become the town leader and should be someone who can do that well. This is just a disclaimer for how I intend to read the game in case the plan changed later on.

Lancer is probably town for insisting they don't get the master, but unless we don't have any other good candidates, should not get it. I feel this same thing slightly more strongly with Alter Ego too.

Yes, it's because I know she isn't a player in this game that I would ask that question.
I guess Saber didn't but, it's nice to see they got a little nervous over it. Or maybe it's just good acting.

Why is it nice to see they were nervous about rule breaking?

Its so hard to associate avatars with reads, when everyone looks so similar

I'll admit this is making catching up really hard for me

I have a low townread on Caster

213 from Archery is good and I'm agreeing enough that I'm hesitant to want to give the master to Saber. Nobody is going to miselim someone they TR for underdelivering either.

(on page 10, will continue catching up later)

[Servant Shielder]

I hate getting behind in games. Once I get caught up I should be good and around more, and I'll be caught up today for sure.

Ruler feels town to me. She's being very clear in her posts and is making sure her reads are known and summarized neatly.

Archer seemed to be trying to lead town in the direction of Berserker in 277 so that's +town

Beast tried to discredit Archer's post I just mentioned from the looks of it so +scum

Without knowing Berserker is town, Caster's 289 would look like setting up a miselim to me, but since we now know Berserker is town I don't see the point of scum making that post.

I think Berserker is right that there's a good chance one of the main contenders is scum. I'm sure at least one of the scumteam decided to play bold and try to get the master

More town points for Alter Ego voting Berserker at a time that I'd expect scum to still fight for the master.

My initial impression of moon cancer was that their reads were too controversial to come from scum. But it wasn't a strong feeling.

This was my initial impression as well

I think a miller claim itself is NAI, but I find this puzzling:

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

in fact late miller claims are often fake. Scum likes to wait and claim miller once they are sure that no one less does it.

I said in my first post.
I didn't see the game started until I posted and neither did I read anything at that point.
Try again.

It's rather hard for me to believe someone didn't realize the game started for almost 16 hours. I recognize that not everyone is as obsessive an addict to this website as I am, but am I really to believe Avenger was simply not paying attention at all and it took him that long to come to the game thread? We all received notice of the game starting, it's not like he wouldn't have reason to check his messages.

The excuse strains credulity.

This is a bad take coming from someone who didn't realize the game started for longer

(on page 20)

[Servant Shielder]

It should be noted hat all 3 of the people pushing for the grail position have been relatively good at being assertive and not very gunshy. I'd be somewhat surprised if any of them turned out to be scum tbh. I think this is just another game where scum have decided to be on the peripheral than to fight for the spot.

I'm thinking scum actually is one of the contenders and also I'm thinking Beast is scum so this post just makes me think scum really is within the contenders even more.

Ave said that never received PM on main and i remembered receiving one. I guess it was just a role pm.

I some how doubt this. I think it was a scum slip.
At least it's going to make it interesting as soon as day phase starts.

I really don't like that this is being pushed.

I’d appreciate it if everyone’s next post could include two people they prefer and two people off the table when it comes to elimination one. Preferably with detail about each.

Will elim:
-Mood cancer
-Ruler
-Beast??

Won't elim:
-Archer
-Caster

I’d appreciate it if everyone’s next post could include two people they prefer and two people off the table when it comes to elimination one. Preferably with detail about each.

Prefer:

Servant Foreigner, Servant Rider

. I should specify that

Servant Rider

is only included because you asked for two servants. In truth it is just

Servant Foreigner

. While there are other slots who may be corrupt, on D1 the only slot I believe to truly be rotten to their core is

Servant Foreigner

.

Off the table:

Servants Moon Cancer, Beast

. Not because they are my strongest pure of heart reads, but because they are the most likely to be falsely accused on D1 when they are pure of heart.

Interesting post to laser in on.

I have a guess for

Servant Shield

's identity and if so their entrance is not alignment indicative.

Now it just feels like Ruler is trying to be controversial. I'm not liking Ruler's approach at all anymore.

Honestly I find Shielder kind of cute, they're like a little turtle.

Saving this one for my signature

Yeah, her simultaneously being aware and unaware of what's going on in recent times seems too convenient for me. Good catch.

You mean the first part of my second post? I had started reading when I wrote that opening to my post. So I had some idea of what was going on.

I'm done being antagonistic. I just know Shielder is town.
My role PM said so.

You're being serious or is this a really strong read?

I'm done being antagonistic. I just know Shielder is town.
My role PM said so.

I can't confirm or deny it. Combined with my scumread I'm a little worried they're just trying to buddy me since they know I'm town and should assume the claim is legit. But I don't know.

I was sad when I realized they were gunna be an inactive slot. So I had nothing to push out the gate or use to develop reads on.
You can iso me. I mentioned shielder once before that. though I also think on my flip it'll just out right say they're town in the role pm that's released.

This might actually be legit. Which would make Beast town. Does a role like this make sense with a conftown already existing though?
(I'll be more active now that I'm caught up and learning to look at names rather than avatars)

[Servant Shielder]

What do you think of Beast's claim being legit?

[Servant Shielder]

Ruler: While I don't necessarily agree with their conclusions, reading through their posts, the things that concern them are things I feel are more likely to come from someone with a town mindset rather than someone who is trying to fabricate reasons to fit their reads. This person also doesn't seem to like me at the moment, but I don't care as it's not like I've been going out of my way to make myself readable.

I disagree with this. Using alt guesses that can't be properly discussed is a really easy way to discuss reads without being able to go into too much detail. Their reads are also extremely different than the general consensus for certain players (like Beast). This isn't necessarily a problem but someone mentioned that they seem too controversial to be scum and then they suddenly have somewhat opposite reads to the majority.

Day 1 proper starting on 4th of July weekend might have been a rather unfortunate occurrence.

don't be shy, you can still make stances, not just questions

*shrug* My main stances should be obvious, I want to punt Moon Cancer to the moon. My main townreads are Caster, Lancer, Assassin, and Shielder (I think her reaction to the beast claim was extremely town such that I don't doubt her alignment, regardless of Beast's, although I do lean town on Beast as well). Lesser townreads are Archer, Beast, and you.

Do you have reads besides scumreads on Moon Cancer and Caster?

I'm curious why you townlean beast

[Servant Shielder]

I'm curious why you townlean beast

I think it would have been a bold play for scum to claim when they did.

I don't think that's a good reason to townlean them. Scum make bold moves like that. Especially when they lower suspicion. I can't remember for sure but I think I was getting a couple townreads after my first post so I was a good choice to make that claim on, and also I wasn't very active and that would make me arguing or bringing up suspicion less likely

[Servant Shielder]

Yeah, I agree with that Rider. I didn't want it anyway but from Beast's point of view they should have at least waited and checked. Beast also discredited our now conftown and pushed for someone else to get the master which doesn't look so good

[Servant Shielder]

I think it's possible. I was thinking a candidate could have been scum and it would make sense that one of the other scum wanted to push for them to get the master. So that's a very possible combination if I'm right about that general theory

[Servant Shielder]

Shielder did give information on interest for master, they said they "weren't against" it.

Where did I say this...

I'm not really buying that Saber thought his power was the best mechanically.

VOTE: Saber
That's E-2

[Servant Shielder]

I'm not sure how I feel on Sabers claim as scummy here.
What's the thought of it being scummy? The fact Saber said it was powerful late game or because of the power?

If you don't believe that Saber thought it was a powerful role then why do they claim it here? Either Saber thinks its powerful as either align or keeps quiet if scum who doesn't think it's a powerful role.

It's scummy that Saber pushed to get the master for being super powerful and a great choice mechanically but then it turns out they arent powerful at all. Maybe that's a very strong difference of opinion but it sounds more like they're trying to convince us that they're powerful rather than actually being powerful. It is true that it was an odd time to claim as scum though. I need more time to think on this but if I had that role I would absolutely not want to get the master unless I was extremely confident in my scumreading and town leading abilities
UNVOTE:

Shielder did give information on interest for master, they said they "weren't against" it.

Where did I say this...

I'm not really buying that Saber thought his power was the best mechanically.

VOTE: Saber
That's E-2

Huh, I can't find it. I guess I hallucinated it. Oh well. If you didn't bring up interest, then you didn't bring up interest

Not that this is very important to the points you're making, but shouldn't you be hyper aware of my stance on getting the master considering you knew I was town. Why would you think I expressed interest when I didn't.

[Servant Shielder]

@Shielder, okay.

I really like Assassin's analysis of Saber.

[Servant Shielder]

Maybe Beast is just town

[Servant Shielder]

Servant Avenger, why did you challenge Servant Foreigner and then cancel it?

[Servant Shielder]

@new Berserker, this is a little outdated, but this was my attempt at trying to get the new Ruler up to date::

Spoiler:

Dedicating time to this game but I wouldn't expect to much for 24ish hours due to the type of weekend.

A recap would be nice

Claims:

Avenger: I am claiming Miller
Assassin: Claims their NP a guaranteed cop-shot that can even go through the miller
Saber: Claimed their NP was one of the strongest in the game, but just recently claimed the ability would limit the posting of 1 player
Beast: Claimed they are informed that Shielder is town

Berserker/Mod Confirmed: They are immune to investigations, but I don't think that matters much, now that they are confirmed town anyways

And then here are a few detailed read lists, with post links and stuff that might help:

Here is Berserkers, it came towards the end of the Day 0, after it was clear Berserker was getting the master: 504
Here is mine: 901 / 902
Rider: 855
Previous Ruler: 834 cases town reads + 890 cases scum reads

Saber's point of view makes no sense to me. That ability would be cool if it were a normal ability and not a generally limited-to-1 NP.
The miller claim sticks out to me here because what Beast is claiming takes the spot of investigative power and Assassin seemed surprised because miller didn't really make sense with their role. Could be a red herring.

[Servant Shielder]

I think we have gotten everything we could have before the first elimination. We should move on.

Ironic

[Servant Shielder]

Suzuka Gozen

Three times per game I can target someone. If they are male, I get to know whatever action they take towards me.

Two shot traffic analyst.

I can select a player to get a bonus NP point.

We already know my NP.

The third line talking about bonus np point feels like a town ability.

This role feels kind of bloated, though. They're also a two-shot traffic analyst on top of that, and an admittedly limited but potentially powerful three-shot ability. It has too much going for it.

[Servant Shielder]

Based on Saber + Beast claims, I don't think I'd buy an investigative type claim here regardless, and I don't think a different type of claim can be so town that we'd change what we're doing

I don't have a personal opinion on Moon Cancer, but feel obligated to follow Berserker's 1091. That and I do see the merit in moving this along so we can discuss the next elimination, and I don't think this one is going to change

[Servant Shielder]

Are they divergent?

They were voting for Saber, who apparently felt enough pressure that they had to claim their role

[Servant Shielder]

Based on Saber + Beast claims, I don't think I'd buy an investigative type claim here regardless, and I don't think a different type of claim can be so town that we'd change what we're doing

I don't have a personal opinion on Moon Cancer, but feel obligated to follow Berserker's 1091. That and I do see the merit in moving this along so we can discuss the next elimination, and I don't think this one is going to change

I don't understand, why do saber and beast claims affect the possibility of an investigative?

Also, our confirmed townie has claimed that they have a passive ability which causes all investigative abilities targeting them to fail -- so, unless that is a red herring, we must have some sort of investigative abilities

1317: Too many roles that fit int he same design space for them all to be telling the truth, in my opinion. And the person I'd first assume was lying would be Moon Cancer.

1319: There are no less than 3 abilities which have already been claimed which Berserker would be immune to. 2 from Saber, 1 from Assassin.

[Servant Shielder]

No.

Not for me at least.

This play proves that you don't have the greatest judgement

Okay, say I flip town, Moon flips town and foreigner flips scum.
Is my judgement still bad?

@Avenger, if you are town, I would like to just say

Well, when you're wrong you're wrong I guess.
I still don't think I'm wrong on foreigner, but I'll leave it to play out for now.

Going to need more from you than shrugging this off and moving on.
Why did you use your gladiate there?
Why did you pull it back so fast instead of arguing more for it?
What was your read on Moon Cancer at the time?

Why ignore me asking you this in 1291?

VOTE: Servant Avenger

Cursed Cupid Cleanser (C.C.C.) ~ **** ~ You may activate this Noble Phantasm during the day phase. When you do, you will grant * to all players you share a PT with, one per shared PT. You may additionally specify one of those players to be temporarily Macho for the night phase immediately after.

So this suggests that Saber is town even more so.
Otherwise it's strange for scum to be able to power each others NP like that.
I guess Moon's comes at a disadvantage of also buffing town players in a hood with them, but the macho part balances that out.

I don't really agree with this take, maybe they are balanced differently. With that said, I think it likely that town has at least 1 ability that can grant *.

[Servant Shielder]

Personally I feel that a traffic analyst claim should at least earn Saber a night to attempt actions

[Servant Shielder]

Personally I feel that a traffic analyst claim should at least earn Saber a night to attempt actions

In a role madness game, where every player has like 4 abilities?

Yeah. It's an investigative ability that can be as strong as a gunsmith if the targets role is known in advance, or at least if they're claiming to not be able to communicate for purposes of traffic analyst.

[Servant Shielder]

Why did we have Saber claim their character name? Or did they do that on their own. This was not a good idea and wasn't necessary for the claim.

[Servant Shielder]

Personally I feel that a traffic analyst claim should at least earn Saber a night to attempt actions

I don't think TA is going to yield much given Moon's flip

I don't see why not based on flip

I am concerned about saber's true name being revealed

[Servant Shielder]

Why's that a particular point of concern for you?

I have a reason to believe that there is a redirection role in this game. Possibly even tied to revealing your name, since we don't know what that entails.

[Servant Shielder]

ok

VOTE: lancer

It's supposed to make people look anyway.

I said I'm going to bat for saber and I'm not playing around

What is the crux of the argument for Saber being town?

[Servant Shielder]

To add to 1514 from Caster, I would again point out that Moon Cancer's very first post in the game was to vote for Saber to get the master and also listed Berserker and both as Assassin scummy

And if they had gotten chosen this would have stuck out if they no longer existed in the actual game thread.

Everyone who pushed for saber would have been looked at closer so if scum could get town to make this push, why wouldn't they.

Also why wouldn't they opt to wait before making the push under this pretense

It is frustrating that you are chiming in on this, without taking the time to look at the post in question. It feels like you are just trying to be a contrarian, instead of actually trying to engage with the discussion properly.

Caster voted in post 52
Beast voted in 53
I voted in 56 (later unvoted)

Moon Cancer voted for Saber in post 226

If Saber won, and stumped as scum, then Moon would not have been instantly linked to that. Moon waited long enough to join into the discussion, that they had the cover to vote for either Assassin or Saber without being the first person looked at if that person ended up being scum, and they chose Saber.

Like, moon very clearly waited until other people were on that wagon before they joined.

This argument seems convincing to me

[Servant Shielder]

VOTE: Saber

So be it

[Servant Shielder]

I was shot at last night, I have an ability that delays my death until the end of this day phase.

[Servant Shielder]

Archer, do you have any abilities that would prevent you from being added to a neighborhood?

[Servant Shielder]

I'm thinking I might as well claim my role today but don't know how long I should wait for other people to claim if they are doing so

[Servant Shielder]

Would it be a good idea to share my abilities or at least some of the relevant ones @Berserker? @Shielder?

Let me think about this
There is some suspicion on you
Personally I came into the day suspecting Avenger and Foreigner on play

[Servant Shielder]

Avenger's role is what, miller + gladiator who can cancel their action?

[Servant Shielder]

What reason do people have for suspecting Beast?

[Servant Shielder]

I don't believe his informed role claim.

Well, I don't believe the informed townie claim either.

If I say that my noble phantasm soft-clears myself, does that make it more or less believable?

[Servant Shielder]

With 4 scum in a 14 player game, I'm not seeing why one informed town clear is unbelievable?

[Servant Shielder]

Archer, do you have any abilities that would prevent you from being added to a neighborhood?

@Shielder, is there a reason you asked me this?

Yeah, I was just confirming what happened with my own role. It's not something you need to worry about.

I plan to claim my role before the end of the day, but don't want to jump the gun and potentially influence other claims depending on who is claiming today.
@Berserker ^?

[Servant Shielder]

I think both Archer and Rider have made good points today.

[Servant Shielder]

VOTE: Foreigner

Ultimately it comes down to voting on play or voting on mech
Foreigner is based on play, Avenger is a mix of mech/play with the gladiate

Right now, I'm leaning towards Foreigner

[Servant Shielder]

How many miselimination do we have if one of these players flips scum?

Keep in mind that I am dying at the end of the day

[Servant Shielder]

Is there anything in the wording of your ability that can allow you to survive or are you 100% dead?

I'm pretty sure I'm dead.

I count as having been killed already, so even something weird like a day doctor would likely be too late.

[Servant Shielder]

Actually, I don't think what I just said is correct

[Servant Shielder]

Actually, I don't think what I just said is correct

My death is delayed, not the timing of when I'm attacked. I do believe this can't be stopped, but it would depend on what other abilities existed. I think it's unlikely that there would be something in the game to save me

[Servant Shielder]

If nothing else, the gladiate into cancel reset the vote count. Maybe they hoped moon cancer wouldn't be voted out so quick.

[Servant Shielder]

My thoughts were more oriented toward the number of potential clear-generating roles seeming particularly high given the size of the setup.

Beast's Informed Role
I claimed that my Noble Phantasm would soft-clear myself but that overlaps with the above
Assassin's Pt cop (Noble Phantasm)

Is there anything else?

[Servant Shielder]

So what was assassin claiming? Also PT cop?

Also taking a step back and examining my own noble phantasm again, there's an argument that it can be a scum role if mafia have a way to ignore its own effects, so it's not quite as self-clearing as I'd have thought

[Servant Shielder]

I should probably stop speculating and just claim my own role

I'd like Foreigner to claim their role first today, though, since that seems to be the direction we're heading

[Servant Shielder]

why would it matter whether it was a vigshot? if he didn't kill anyone then he didn't kill anyone...?

They think that both scum would have been performing kills

[Servant Shielder]

You are key to shielder alignment

Why do you think they would be killed (by mafia) then?

[Servant Shielder]

I investigated Foreigner and he didn't attempt to kill anyone last night.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Detective

[Servant Shielder]

The logic doesn't make sense because killing beast and revealing more information is a bad move for scum, not a good move

[Servant Shielder]

@shield am i talking to the wall?

No, but what you're saying doesn't make sense to me, and I don't know if you're confused or mafia.

Can you use the watcher again?

[Servant Shielder]

Everybody has talked today and nobody is claiming a vig shot

[Servant Shielder]

Domina Coronam: Ten Crowns D ~ Once during the game, at night, you may use this skill. Target a player, and you will remove all negative effects on them. They will ignore the next debuff targeted towards them and immediately gain a one-shot bulletproof. You may target yourself.

Aurea Pocula: Golden Grail C ~ The first factional kill you perform will have a strongman effect applied. You will be informed if your strongman ability allowed an action that normally would have failed or not.

Self-Modification EX ~ Once during the game, at night, you can use this skill. When you do, ALL killing actions in the game, including the factional kill, will be redirected towards you. For each kill you absorb in this fashion, should you live, you will gain an additional usage of "Domina Coronam: Ten Crowns D"

Notably, the strongman effect should override the redirect here. A single vig shot can be survived with the first ability placed on themself. This has the effect of clearing negative effects on self, denying a vig ability from killing anybody, and gaining the first ability again

[Servant Shielder]

Actually, I don't know if redirector and strongman work like that

[Servant Shielder]

idk man. I keep pinging back and forth

Passing a detective check from beast is a good look for him, especially if it turns out both kills came from the scum team -- but then 2 kills coming from the scum team in a game that is 10 v 4 seems strange to me -- but then no one is claiming a vig shot. So, idk

Foreigner claiming to watcher beast does not help him though. If anything, beast makes more sense to be targeted by a scum watcher then a town watcher, so then it comes down from to "did foreigner make a bad play, or is foreigner just scum here" -- and again, that is confusing

So, no he is not exonerated, but I guess I would say I went from "We should definitely yeet Foreigner today" to "I am very confused about Foreigner"

I agree with this

But also, the same for avenger and some weirdness around their miller claim today, and a general detachment from the game right now

[Servant Shielder]

I can see thinking there's too many possible kills, I just have an issue with how that idea was expressed

Do you think having foreigner and avenger full claim minus character/ability name is a good idea?

Or just one/the other?

[Servant Shielder]

@Shielder. Question for you

Are you and Beast in a PT?

I'm not in any pt

[Servant Shielder]

I can see thinking there's too many possible kills, I just have an issue with how that idea was expressed

Do you think having foreigner and avenger full claim minus character/ability name is a good idea?

Or just one/the other?

This would probably be the smart thing, based on how today has gone

Foreigner, can we get your full claim?

No character name

[Servant Shielder]

Do we think that the scum team can keep getting 2 night kills per night?

I don't think that makes sense

[Servant Shielder]

I see the mechanical argument for beast scum being too many power roles, but not the play based one. And I don't want to elim just based on mechanics like that.

[Servant Shielder]

Claim:

I have the ability that delays my death.
I have another ability that is a 1-shot bodyguard that creates a neighborhood if I successfully protect someone. I used it on Archer.
I have an ability that makes me immune to redirections.

My np would block all kills the next night. I'd use it during the day and there would be an announcement confirming that this happened. This is 1-shot too, and costs ****.

----

Thoughts:

My understanding is that the shielder class has the least character options and is therefore the most easily guessed for flavor, and so maybe redirection was related to that. The one redirection ability we've seen only applied to kills.
My np could be foiled by the strongman if they hadn't died day 1.
I was told that my first ability activated.
There's no neighborhood from my second ability so I was shot at directly.