Lynch All Lurkers Mafia! GAME OVER

[populartajo]

Quick reread tells me Image is not remarkbaly protown. Strange fixation with SSK. Noncommital on zwet. Supportive of my wagon cuz he agrees with rolf. But his switch for Malyss reeks.

Still not seeing tajo as town, but agreeing that there isn't as strong a case against him as rofl seems to think there is. Unvote.

I am quite disturbed by the utter lack of meaningful posting coming from Malyss. Vote: Malyss

Votesd antihero following Zorblag. Some lurking. Pushes DGB, votes her but again

That being said I don't think the case against her is as strong as rofl is playing it up to be.

Then why the hell did you vote for her and not for rolf?

I dont disagree with his lynch.

Now.

I want everyone thoughts of Xyl. This is important. Elvis, why do you think he is town? Rolf, why the switch?

[populartajo]

I FoS'd image 22 posts before ortolan "started the wagon"

Not that I'm counting

Xyl do you usually use FOS?

[populartajo]

Xyl do you usually use FOS?

Not very often, no. image's attack on rofl set my scumdar off.

I totally would have expected a vote from you.

Yep, I was right. Xyl is scum. AMIRITE, AMIRITE?

[populartajo]

I'm in wimp mode right now. It happens right around after I've been heavily pushing three town wagons.

You're going to need to buck up or faketrackertajo is going to try to lynch you.

[populartajo]

Oops sorry he wasn't ineffective tracker in -XylBot-, that was URoE. Tajo was ineffective doc/vig.

yep you gave me an awesome role, Xyl.

[populartajo]

I want everyone thoughts of Xyl. This is important. Elvis, why do you think he is town? Rolf, why the switch?

[populartajo]

Tajo, care to explain how you are a tracker in what appears to be a mountainous setup?

Whats a mountainous setup?

[populartajo]

A setup with only regular Mafia and Townie roles. In the original game, every Cop, Doctor, Serial Killer, Vigilante, and Godfather was killed by the Game Moderator in the game setup. Also called Roleless Mafia; sometimes this is done as an Open Setup, sometimes not.

Mountanious setup this is not. I am a tracker, we have masons and we know that the scum also have a roleblocker.

Elvis, why exactly do you think I am scum?

[populartajo]

OMG Nuwen and Kinetic here.

WIH all over around.

[populartajo]

Unvote Vote : Image.

Claim time.

[populartajo]

@Image

Quick reread tells me Image is not remarkbaly protown. Strange fixation with SSK. Noncommital on zwet. Supportive of my wagon cuz he agrees with rolf. But his switch for Malyss reeks.

Still not seeing tajo as town, but agreeing that there isn't as strong a case against him as rofl seems to think there is. Unvote.

I am quite disturbed by the utter lack of meaningful posting coming from Malyss. Vote: Malyss

Votesd antihero following Zorblag. Some lurking. Pushes DGB, votes her but again

That being said I don't think the case against her is as strong as rofl is playing it up to be.

Then why the hell did you vote for her and not for rolf?

I dont disagree with his lynch.

Now.

I want everyone thoughts of Xyl. This is important. Elvis, why do you think he is town? Rolf, why the switch?

[populartajo]

I think Nuwen makes bad analogies but I dont think she is scum. I get an overal protwon feeling and some good logic coming from her contribution.

[populartajo]

I think Nuwen makes bad analogies but I dont think she is scum. I get an overal protwon feeling and some good logic coming from her contribution.

People who replace in with a burst of analysis tend to have that effect. It's not much of a tell.

I agree but I also cant trust my read on Nuwen cause she really tricked me in WIH.

I just get a good intention feeling coming from her post (asking for Steph bothering SSK in the daytalk is a good example of this).

@Nuwen, who is scum, neutral, town?

[populartajo]

Its kinda awesome how Elvis and me got to different conclusions in almost the same time.

[populartajo]

Its kinda awesome how Elvis and me got to different conclusions in almost the same time.

What do you think of her kraplogic? For a maths person it is surprisingly fail.

I am not a math person so basically I got bored when I tried understanding what she said.

Mafia is not math, its analysis of intentions and I just get a warm feeling when I read her posts. Even if they are wrong, she is at leastr trying. Even if she is wrong, that doesnt mean she is scum, IMO.

I assume you think Nuwen is more likely scum thatn image?

[populartajo]

Tajo, you don't need to be a maths person so see that she's not making sense.

I don't know if she's more likely scum than image. But she's scum, and she needed my vote.

I think it's really scummy to try to "unconfirm" people. When you're scum, it sucks to have people confirmed town, so you search for ways to argue that they're unconfirmed. That's what she's doing, and using the crappiest logic to do so.

Elvis, Im missing something here.

Why are you confirmed town?

[populartajo]

Kay, here is where we are.

Image is scummy. Anybody doing a quick reread can realize this. (See my previous posts for reference). His lynch is pretty optymal if we analize his behaviour until today.

But there is something that doesnt fit. You see, I dont trust rolf and Elvis. I guess that one of the reasons is their constant attacks aganist me. But at this point of the game I have to trust them. If Elvis and rolf are scum together and sacrificated zwet in D1 to win townie points, we'll definitely know later, near endgame. Also, Rolf is playing his self usual town and even Elvis feels a little off sometimes but she is right. Her relationship with zwet indicates more that she is town.

So, if image is scum, then why did he go against two of the prob townies of the game. Its like something scum wouldnt do. It just doesnt fit.

At the same point, Im wondering if today is the day to take care people like SSK or Empking. I definitely dont want any of them going to endgame since if they are town scum are likely never going to kill them.

I still dont like Xyl and ort to a less point, but I guess Im alone here so.

Unvote.

I need to think.

If I have time later this evening Ill analyse the wagons and votting patterns. Seems today is a good day to do so.

[populartajo]

Zwet lynch

10 zwetschenwasser (roflcopter, ortolan, antihero, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Stephoscope, Empking,

populartajo

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
2 populartajo (

Zorblag

, Xylthixlm)
1 DrippingGoofball (image)
1 elvis_knits (q21)
1 roflcopter (BrianMcQueso)
1 Stephoscope (

zwetschenwasser

)

2 Unvote (

Malyss

,

wolfcrier

)

There has to be scum in the zwet wagon. Zwet lynch or death was inevitable day 1, day 2, day whatever. 99% sure of this. The thing is where. Rolf, ort, antihero and elvis (voted zwet earlier than ort and antihero IIRC) are early voters. SSK, Steph, Empking are late voters. Gut tells me that there is prob at least one scum in the early wagoners and prob at least one scum in the late wagoners.

Its also possible that there is at least one scum out of the wagon, following "all scum in the eggs basket" theory. Im thinking only one, max two.

So for now we have

1 scum in (rolf, ort, antihero,elvis)

1 scum in (ssk, steph and Empking)

1 scum in (Xyl, image, q21, Brian)

Malyss lynch

9 Malyss (

Xtoxm

, Xylthixlm,

DrippingGoofball

, image, q21, BrianMcQueso, Empking,

populartajo

, roflcopter)
3 Antihero (

Zorblag

, ortolan,

Malyss

)
1 DrippingGoofball (Stephoscope)

3 Unvote (antihero, MafiaSSK,

wolfcrier

)

17 alive; 9 to lynch.

Malyss was inherently scummy. Lurker and bad town play. Good odds of finding scum in her wagon.

1 scum in Xyl, image, q21, Brian, Empking, rolf.

1 scum in ort, steph, antihero, SSK.

Xtoxm lynch

8 Xtoxm (

SpyreX

, roflcopter, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits, Empking, Stephoscope,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
1 Antihero (image)
1 ortolan (populartajo)
1 populartajo (ortolan)

4 Unvote (Antihero, BrianMcQueso, MafiaSSK, q21)

15 alive; 8 to lynch.

Xtoxm was a player that didnt do anything to defend. Could prevent his lynch so scum prob were more caraful with him. As usual, scum in the wagon and out the wagon.

1 scum in rolfl, Xyl, Elvis, Empking, Steph

1 scum in image, ortolan, Antihero, Brian, SSK and q21.

DGB lynch

8 DrippingGoofball (Xylthixlm, roflcopter, ortolan, Empking, SpyreX, image, elvis_knits)
1 MafiaSSK (populartajo)
1 ortolan (q21, )
4 Unvote (Antihero, BrianMcQueso, MafiaSSK, Stephoscope)

14 alive; 8 to lynch.

DGB is interesting to analyse. Lets face it. DGB case was weak and Im sure many people voting for her were not even sure she was scum. But, lets start for our typical one scum in one scum out of the wagon.

1 scum in

[populartajo]

Shit, I dont know when I hit submit. This is the lasyt analysys.

DGB lynch

8 DrippingGoofball (Xylthixlm, roflcopter, ortolan, Empking,

SpyreX

, image, elvis_knits)
1 MafiaSSK (

populartajo

)
1 ortolan (q21, )
4 Unvote (Antihero, BrianMcQueso, MafiaSSK, Stephoscope)

14 alive; 8 to lynch.

DGB is interesting to analyse. Lets face it. DGB case was weak and Im sure many people voting for her were not even sure she was scum. But, lets start for our typical one scum in one scum out of the wagon.

1 scum in xyl, rolf, ort, Empking, image, elvis

1 scum in q21, antihero, brian, ssk, steph

[populartajo]

Granted taking two townies and replacing them with jesters tends to make things worse for the town

Really interested in the elvis case but can we lynch mafiassk first, the case against him is blatant

This is pretty unfair for dgb and xtoxm.

They were not jesters. They were pissed with people in their wagons and I understand them. Specially DGB when she was lynched when there was NO case against her. It has happened to me before and it sucks to the bones. The feeling that everyone attacking you for shit couldnt be scum and the desesperation of fighting against the clock of your execution.

And just people dont hear.

I wouldnt hammer myself but I see why she would do it.

[populartajo]

Note: I am asking this to everyone except populartajo; the less he does to influence others' answers to that question, the better he will look.

Ill answer this when everyone comments.

[populartajo]

From my POV the responsibility for the Xtoxm and DGB lynches lies 100% with Xtoxm and DGB, respectively. They

asked to be lynched

! I don't care if they were frustrated or whatever, that doesn't change the fact that the lynches were

their ideas

and

their fault

. They get absolutely no sympathy from me, and if the town loses this game I will blame it entirely on them.

Xyl, so you think there was a case on dgb and in xtoxm?

[populartajo]

Vote : MafiaSSK.

I think today is the day to do it, have previous suspicions of him, should die, etc.

[populartajo]

Xyl, so you think there was a case on dgb and in xtoxm?

I think that someone asking to be lynched is always a sufficient reason to do so.

And thats where you fail, Xyl.

You think everyone should play like a computer. It just simply wont happen. People do have feelings, people do hate when they are not being listened. Asking to be lynched is not a scumtell as dgb and xtomx flips have proven.

Unless you are scum and you just dont care about what I am talking.

[populartajo]

Why is MafiaSSK not voting?

[populartajo]

Catching up all I missed in the weekend.

[populartajo]

Nuwen

-

TOWN

Has made strong cases. Aggressive.

Xylthixlm

-

NEUTRAL/No read

Again makes strong cases. Leads town (possible scum tell of Xyl). Is also aggressive.

Image

-

TOWN

Has strong view points. Tested my PR multiple times. Makes cases.

Roflcopter

-

PROBABLY TOWN

Attacks people. Short posts. Probably town not sure.

Empking

-

PROBABLY SCUM

Posts less often than say Image. Short posts. Attacks with little reason.

Mastin/Antihero

-

NO CLUE

Mastin has provided no scumhunting. Antihero scumhunted on little reason. But sitll don't have a read.

Elvis_Knits

-

TOWN

Makes cases with good reasons.

Q21/Kinetic

-

SCUM

Q unvoted tajo because it didn't gain any more votes and then shortly after joined a Malyss bandwagon with one reason that was not unique. Kinetic then replaced him has not posted any content and has not posted in 63 hours. He should have posted something else in the middle of his "move".

IGMEOY Kinetic

Steph

-

TOWN

Attacks efficently. Might be a bit quick on the vote. Seems like he's confused

Poptajo

-

SCUM

Most of his posts seem like IIOA. (Sorry for the use of a wiki-tell)

Ortolan

-

POSSIBLY TOWN

Has a perfect balance of attacking and responding to posts.

What in my posts seem like IIOA?
And what changed your mind about Elvis and Xyl?

[populartajo]

Nuwen: To be honest MafiaSSK's assertion that he would recruit me first rings of truth.

A few people seem to be dominating the conversation unhealthily here, I think I'll try being a follower for a while and see where I'm led.

Right now I think both Nuwen and roflcopter are town.

unvote

vote for image

vote: image

you again.

This Xyl feels off. Really off. Xyl is not a follower. Why am I the only one noticing this?

[populartajo]

we are not lynching mafiassk because being a piss poor player and a piss poor sport does not make him scum, and none of the arguments for why he is scum are anything more than "lol look at how badly he's playing his role"

I really dont want any of SSK or Emp making it to endgame. I really dont. If they are town, scum are prob never going to kill them and going to use them to win the game.

It has happened before.

[populartajo]

We also get your pretty wagon to analyze. I'm not going to continue speculating where scum votes on MafiaSSK might lie, lest I create a nasty WIFOM situation that'll be useless for real scumhunting later on.

Whenever a wagon forms on a scum, their buddies have a choice between what I think of as "positional advantage" and "material advantage". The other scum can defend or stay off the wagon, thus increasing the chance that their buddy survives (preserving material advantage) in return for looking scummier (losing positional advantage); or they can bus their buddy, making him easier to lynch (losing material advantage) but making themselves look more town (gaining positional advantage). A simple result from elementary game theory says that in situations like that, the town's best play is to make that decision as close as possible for the scum.

A similar effect happens with town wagons, except there the scum choose which sort of advantage to gain, rather than which sort to lose.

you left out option three - they can present an alternate wagon and push that hard enough to steal votes from the wagon on their buddy. and thus i present this bullshit mafiassk wagon, which has singlehandedly resulted in neither image or nuwen being anywhere near a lynch. grats on almost getting away with it xyl, but i'm back now.

unvote, vote: image

iamge is scum why.

[populartajo]

tajo, you're not the person i'm trying to convince to vote for image

ort, emp, elvis and ssk are the people i would like to see vote for (or change their vote back to, as the case may be) image

hop to it guys

i need your opinion on xyl, rolf, because my gut is killing me.

[populartajo]

Xyl, can we see a scumlist from yours?

[populartajo]

Holy crap. This is the last time Mastin posted: Posted: Fri May 08, 2009 5:53 pm

If he doesn't post in the next 8 minutes, we have to lynch him today. Good news is he did seem pretty scummy with his last round of pretend contribution.

Holy crap, you are right, Carrie. Mastin last post in the site was on Saturday afternoon, almost 24 hours from his last post here.

[populartajo]

Posted: Fri May 8, 2009 14:53:03 Post subject: 11

unvote, vote Mastin

you again, why you?

Unvote Vote : Mastin.

[populartajo]

L-3 with very high tendence of L-1.

Mastin, claim or die.

Also, if youd like to survive a little more, share a scumlist with us.

[populartajo]

Arg, doc claim.

Why would Antihero targetted me night one?

[populartajo]

Antihero did a good job of not breadcrumbing like most new players would about my role.

I am the doctor

. Antihero targeted Tajo every night.

I'm not a particularly experienced player or anything, but I don't understand this at all. Are you saying you protected Tajo? Are you saying Antihero is scum? How would Antihero know anything to breadcrumb?

Steph, Mastin replaced Antihero.

[populartajo]

Dang it. <---Cap that, bold, italicize, underline, and replace n with m and g with the n.

I was busy. I looked at lunch, and was reading the comments since then.
I didn't catch up, and ran out of time before I could post.
But I thought, "Meh, I posted yesterday. It's fine. I'll get home soon enough to write a post."

One problem:
I DIDN'T post yesterday. I thought I had, but I forgot to hit submit, and lost everything.

Oops

.
Fortunately, I'm not scum.

Now that I'm caught up with what was said since my last post (took some serious browsing), I see that I was obviously mistaken. My bad, and you're not going to like me for it. L-2, nasty business. L-2, claim territory in a larger game. L-2...

Very bad situation. :/
Simply put, I messed up.

Antihero did a good job of not breadcrumbing like most new players would about my role.

I am the doctor

. Antihero targeted Tajo every night.

If you're a doc, then that sucks. We have to lynch you no matter what now.

But, I would like to point out that you replaced AH on D2, which means the night choice should have been yours last night, but you said AH targetted tajo both nights. Not possible since you were the player at the time of N2.

Good catch.
Lynch plox.

[populartajo]

Suspicious post numero uno:

L-3 with very high tendence of L-1.

Mastin, claim or die.

Also, if youd like to survive a little more, share a scumlist with us.

The suggestion that we might let Mastin survive for any amount of time is highly suspicious.

No. It is trying to a)see if he could bring a valid point as town or b)see if he could give valid information as scum. Rolf and Xyl also did this in other posts.

You're entering the point where everyhting I do is wrong.

[populartajo]

Next suspicious post:

Arg, doc claim.

Why would Antihero targetted me night one?

Oh no, a doc claim!

I was wondering why Antihero "protected" me when there were better options at the time.

In fact, the thing that he claimed doctor protecting me, do you think its more likely that scum think Im town and they hate me to the bones or that Im scum with Antihero/Masttin?

[populartajo]

Next suspicious post:

Arg, doc claim.

Why would Antihero targetted me night one?

Oh no, a doc claim!

I was wondering why Antihero "protected" me when there were better options at the time.

In fact, the thing that he claimed doctor protecting me, do you think its more likely that scum think Im town and they hate me to the bones or that Im scum with Antihero/Masttin?

It could go either way. It's complete WIFOM.

Yes, therefore any argument that says that Im scum because of his doc claim is bogus.

[populartajo]

Suspicious post numero uno:

L-3 with very high tendence of L-1.

Mastin, claim or die.

Also, if youd like to survive a little more, share a scumlist with us.

The suggestion that we might let Mastin survive for any amount of time is highly suspicious.

No. It is trying to a)see if he could bring a valid point as town or b)see if he could give valid information as scum. Rolf and Xyl also did this in other posts.

You're entering the point where everyhting I do is wrong.

I can see it that way too -- as trying to get info out of a scum before they die.

I had to present it that way to see how you would explain it.

I'm not trying to see evrything you do as scummy, but you have a number suspect things about you.

Also, you were instrumental in the Malyss lynch going down before AH hit 72 hours.

If Malyss had been protown and Antihero inherently scummy then I could give you this point. AH coming up scum means that I took a bad decision there.

[populartajo]

Next suspicious post:

Arg, doc claim.

Why would Antihero targetted me night one?

Oh no, a doc claim!

I was wondering why Antihero "protected" me when there were better options at the time.

In fact, the thing that he claimed doctor protecting me, do you think its more likely that scum think Im town and they hate me to the bones or that Im scum with Antihero/Masttin?

It could go either way. It's complete WIFOM.

Yes, therefore any argument that says that Im scum because of his doc claim is bogus.

And nobody is saying you're scum based on his doc claim, so it's a non issue.

Rolf.

[populartajo]

Suggestion: Mastin needs to die today. Yes. But let's lynch him second. Then we see more interaction from him, and learn more when he flips one way or the other.

This was awesome.

vote image

Does this make more sense coming from a scum pov?

I could bet that scumpartners would be more pendant of Mastin flip.

[populartajo]

I cant decide. There are some points that make me want to lynch him but there are some points that make me think he is town or very intelligent scum. Do you think he is scum?

[populartajo]

but it should still be noted that the more vanilla and goon flips we have, the less likely a tracker in this setup becomes

It should also be noted that we have confirmed masons and a confirmed roleblocker in the setup.

[populartajo]

I also wanted to play in the foursome.

Oh, I forgot Im scummy.

[populartajo]

unvote; vote nuwen

She is trying to erode everyone's confidence in me, and make me look like a bad player by saying "that's just bad, bad play." Despite the fact that I am the most confirmed player in the whole game and pushed for both scum to be lynched. She is trying to make me seem like a bad player because I am saying she's scum.

I took a while to think about it because I didn't want to just vote her out of anger. But he latest comments to me are totally scummy.

I just added you to my town list - the only thing I'm trying to break down is the lead-follow love triangle between you, Rofl, and Steph. It's not healthy for the town to have three unconfirmed players trying to get everyone else to play follow the leader (Rofl's leverage over Xyl's vote is especially scary). Calling yourself "the most confirmed player in the game" does not grant you room to propose plans detrimental to the town and then call anyone who opposes them scummy. Calling yourself the "most confirmed player" isn't a good idea at all, actually.

vote: MafiaSSK

- Back to taking care of old problems.

Why are you trying to break down the lead-follow love triangle?

I agree they are sometimes difficult to treat but they are so far our most confirmed townies in the game. Elvis bringing up Mastin lurker time is a terrible play as scum in the short and longterm when Mastin and Elvis werent even suspected. Steph is the confirmed town in the masonhood after he claiming mason thinking that ssk was also town. Rolf is playing his usual self and has zwet lynch in his power.

I suggest to start wasting time in them and focus in another targets.

[populartajo]

xyl, what exactly just convinced you image was not a good place for your vote?

Gut. His overall pattern of behavior just doesn't make sense as scum. He's done some individual scummy things, but they don't fit with the rest of his play if I assume he's scum.

Can you ellaborate?

[populartajo]

Hey MafiaSSK, tell me exactly why you accused me of something a while back?

'Cause I do

I am going to give you one more opportunity to answer this. If you're town or even want to pretend to be, you really should.

Hopefully you understand what I am talking about...you accused me of something I didn't do, remember?

What'd I accuse you of?

This?

Yes, fine I wasn't doing it a while ago. Now I am but Steph isn't.

[populartajo]

Xyl, when did you realize that image was prob town?

[populartajo]

Three masons... why aren't we lynching tajo now?

Seems like Xyl is running out of mislynches, aye pal?

Im giving you a last chance before I go crazy about you. Youve changed your scumlists like a nun changes her underwear. /rimshot.

Xyl, who is scum and why?

[populartajo]

I heard nuns don't wear underwear...

You sure?

Mmmm

Make it a recently married woman.

Oh snap.

They probably dont wear it too.

/rimjob.

[populartajo]

no, xyl is changing his scumlist according to the lynchable players. he tried it with q21, then he is trying to do it with me.

[populartajo]

oh look he tried it with nuwen too

I don't think we should be lynching image or Nuwen.

If q21 turns out scum I'm posting this in MD.

Meanwhile

vote: Nuwen

[populartajo]

tajo why aren't you voting?

specifically why aren't you voting nuwen?

Im not voting someone I dont think is scum.

Im not going to follow you like a mindless monkey.

I think Xyl is scum and Ive pushed his case before but nobody listens.

Here, have a vote.

Unvote Vote : Xyl.

Will it accomplish anything when the love triangle is rulñing the thread?

[populartajo]

tajo: I'd rather make an accusation and have to change my mind about it later than not make any accusations at all.

So, who do

you

think is scum?

Yes, but which are the reasons why you change your mind?

[populartajo]

tajo: I'd rather make an accusation and have to change my mind about it later than not make any accusations at all.

So, who do

you

think is scum?

Yes, but which are the reasons why you change your mind?

On Nuwen? My town feeling on her isn't particularly strong, my town feelings on elvis and rofl are very strong, and elvis and rofl think Nuwen is scum.

Xyl do you have examples in games where you are lead by prob town players?

Do you think they are right on their Nuwen's suspicions?

[populartajo]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

[populartajo]

I also want a clear answer from Steph about if the masons are confirmed to each other or not.

I think there has been some back and forth about this, or possibly it has been SSK fucking with us.

What do you mean? Do I know whether the other two are town? No, I don't.

Post 696 explains the earlier confusion I had.

Anyway, I have nothing to share regarding my mason partners right now, but for me personally, I'm thinking Mastin wouldn't have gone for the 72-hour bonus if we all haven't been on to something.

Unvote
Vote: Nuwen

Thats a very good point I hadnt thought about. It also fits with the idea that Mastin came back few hours after the 72 treashold, like he was indeed planing to lurk 72 hours.

I need to check if it was image or Nuwen.

[populartajo]

4 image (Stephoscope, roflcopter, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits)
3 MafiaSSK (ortolan, Empking, populartajo)
2 elvis_knits (image, Nuwen)

3 Unvote (MafiaSSK, Mastin, Kinetic)

12 alive; 7 to lynch

This is the previous votecount before Mastin was caught lurking 72 hours.
It was not Nuwen, it was image.

[populartajo]

Thanks. I've been in 3 games with tajo and he was town in all of them.

Do you think my play is different here than in those 3 games?

[populartajo]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

They are valid (sometimes they feel like disagreeing in playstyle) but I think my point outweights them.

I really think that scum wouldn't put me in prob town status and start and wouldnt attack also someone that was prob town as the game progressed.

It just doesnt fit coming from a scum pov.

[populartajo]

I don't like the "scum would never defend a townie" argument from tajo, especially since he only seems to apply it when the townie being defended is himself. It seems more like reverse OMGUS than anything else.

Why would it apply with someone that Im not sure is town?

Its not reverse OMGUS, its just that I bet Nuwenscum would have put me at least in neutral in case it was necessary to lynch me.

[populartajo]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

They are valid (sometimes they feel like disagreeing in playstyle) but I think my point outweights them.

I really think that scum wouldn't put me in prob town status and start and wouldnt attack also someone that was prob town as the game progressed.

It just doesnt fit coming from a scum pov.

Tajo, if what you say is true, and you are town, and are being RBed every night, you are no threat to scum. They do not need to lynch you. They can keep you alive forever. They can earn town credit by arguing against your lynch. If you get lynched they look more townie for having believed you.

Good point. But its not like scum are going to roleblock me forever. What if they need to lynch me?

[populartajo]

SpyreX is town

^ By tajologic I must be town.

Are you really comparing me (a claimed tracker that at some point was about to be lynched) with Spryrex (a solid townie that was nked)?

And are you really comparing the strong read Nuwen has of me with your "x is town" reads that you change like your underwear?

Its not craplogic. Its about the situation and the players involved.

Gezz this is not so hard to understand.

[populartajo]

Im here.

Got no result again.

Im going to be terribly busy today.

Please dont do anything crazy until I come back.

[populartajo]

Im here.

Got no result again.

Im going to be terribly busy today.

Please dont do anything crazy until I come back.

...

Who did you target?

Wasnt it obvious I would target you?

[populartajo]

tajo, what do you think of the masons?

Also, why are you the only power role in this game besides a group of severely disfunctional masons?

I would fully answer this when I get some free time this night or tomorrow.

I just came back to quickly check if my games needed me.

Short answer: 3 masons makes me think that the odds of finding scum there are more high than in 2 masons team, specially knowing how unfuctional they have been. This is my first game with 3 masons.

About the tracker thing. Massclaim is the way to go. So far we have 3 confirmed masons, 1 tracker and 1 roleblocker. I dont think Yos would be that mean to have a role distribution that would only include two roles that would only interact each other. But, in the worst scenario, would the fact that I could be the only targetting power role for town means that Im scum?

Xyl, what is the meta thing you are bringing about the masons being town? Nuwen said another thing, IIRC.

[populartajo]

Im here.

Got no result again.

Im going to be terribly busy today.

Please dont do anything crazy until I come back.

...

Who did you target?

Wasnt it obvious I would target you?

What were all your targets again?

SSK night 1.
You night 2 and night 3.

[populartajo]

tajo: Did you ask Yosarian2 to clarify what result you would get if you were blocked vs what result you would get if your target did nothing?

The most likely explanation is that I was roleblocked.

I dont think Yos could clarify this but I dont lose anything, so Im PMing him right now.

[populartajo]

Elvis, dont be silly. If I were scum and I knew mafia were all goons then I wouldnt have claimed tracker. Thats so weak coming from me. Also, the assumption that me and Empking ahve to be scum together is indeed weak since Empking could have easily fakeclaimed vanilla if he were scum.

This isnt a mountanious setup since we have 3 masons a claimed doctor and 1 roleblocker (yes i know you would have to be me to realize this).

In other news, Xyl is scum.

Vote : Xyl.

[populartajo]

Do I have to make a case against you to prove that you have been off all the game, specially when pushing DGB wagon

Do you admit that you arent playing your current town meta and that your play here painfully reminds me of Mind Screw?

[populartajo]

Sure. Later.

You think I am scum, Xy?

[populartajo]

This is the question you are refering to?

I would like Empking, populartajo, and image to answer this question: Which of the other two on that list do you think is most likely to be scum?

Empking is doc. POE leaves Image but not even close to be optymal lynch.

You see, this is the type of questions that make me think you are scum. What is the point of that question?

[populartajo]

Tajo, why are you voting first and giving reasons later?

Because I dont have time to quote things in my office.

I have voted Xyl since yesterday and I have explained why. No one listens me just because Im a claimed tracker in a "mointanuos" setup. No one.

Well, then you ahve a doctor and 3 masons, are you going to listen me now? Even after Emp claimed you came out with "oh, look, this is so easy, Emp and Tajo are scum, lynchplox".

Elvis, you think Xyl is town?

[populartajo]

Sorry guys, if my V/LA doesnt get better in the following two days, I'd likely ask for a replacement.

Dont worry yet.

Just dont lynch Empking.

[populartajo]

Promisse to post tomorrow. I just got tired rerading another game that needed my presence.

[populartajo]

Im so not in the mood for playing mafia today after catching up in two games that were 10 pages long.

Youll hear from me tomorrow

[populartajo]

Why the fuck are you pushing Empking?

Empking is a claimed doctor. The only targetting PR besides me. My whole towniness depends of him. If you think he is scum, then I am also scum. Who thinks me and Emp are scum together? It just doesnt make sense.

All of Elvis, ort and Xyl know that he is not the best player of the world and that asking questions is not the way to go. I just learned that the bad way. What do you expect to get of him other than he is such a terrible reasoner?

There HAS to be a scum in the ort-xyl pair. Elvis, which is already obv town, is not even playing as I expect her to be playing. Im strongly leaning to Xyl here but I really need to check ort before.

[populartajo]

Oh, you unvoted.

Why?

[populartajo]

Oh, you unvoted.

Why?

I liked empking's answers enough to make me uncertain of his alignment.

Elaborate.

This is important.

[populartajo]

Im here catching up.

Seems I miss a lot duiring weekend.

[populartajo]

You know... tajo said he would send Yosarian2 a PM asking about his role, but he never answered my question about what the reply was. If I was a tracker and had a string of "no result" answers, I'd definitely check to see if that possibly meant no target.

tajo: Did you ask Yosarian2 to clarify what result you would get if you were blocked vs what result you would get if your target did nothing?

The most likely explanation is that I was roleblocked.

I dont think Yos could clarify this but I dont lose anything, so Im PMing him right now.

Last week has been busy as hell, I forgot to answer that.

This is what Yos said, paraprhrasing obv:

If a tracker get roleblocked or failed, "No result";

If a tracker targeted someone who didn't target, "Player (X) did not taget anyone."

[populartajo]

5 image (Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic)
2 Xylthixlm (populartajo, image)
1 MafiaSSK (Empking)

1 Not Voting(Stephoscope)

9 alive; 5 to lynch.

IMAGE WAS LYNCHED. HE WAS A VANILLA TOWNIE.

It is now Block 2.

Facepalm. There is at least one scum in this list. Why are you trying to lynch the incorrect people?

Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic

[populartajo]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the scum.
Xyl (prob ortolan) and a mason. (still deciding between Kin and SSK)

[populartajo]

image coming up town reduces some of the suspicion I have on ortolan.

Stephoscope, Kinetic, MafiaSSK: Scumlists. Now.

Explain.

Scumlist, now. You too.

[populartajo]

I don't think we should be lynching image or Nuwen.

6 Nuwen (elvis_knits, roflcopter,

Xylthixlm

, Stephoscope, Empking, ortolan)

5 image (

Xylthixlm

, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic)


I really cant understand why some people think Xyl is town.

Someone?

[populartajo]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the scum.
Xyl (prob ortolan) and a mason. (still deciding between Kin and SSK)

Now

that's

a compelling argument. I do like the bus though. Who were your targets over the game again?

The point of this question is...

Ive said like 100 million times : n1, ssk, n2 and n3, xyl.

Where are your arguments, ort?

[populartajo]

Someone explain this:

10

zwetschenwasser

(

roflcopter

, ortolan,

antihero

, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Stephoscope,

Empking, populartajo

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
5 populartajo (

roflcopter

,

image

, q21, elvis_knits, Stephoscope)
9

Malyss

(

Xtoxm

, Xylthixlm,

DrippingGoofball

,

image

, q21,

BrianMcQueso

,

Empking, populartajo

,

roflcopter

)
5

DrippingGoofball

(elvis_knits, Stephoscope, Empking,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm)
8

Xtoxm

(

SpyreX

,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits, Empking, Stephoscope,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
8

DrippingGoofball

(Xylthixlm,

roflcopter

, ortolan, Empking,

SpyreX

,

image

, elvis_knits)
5

image

: ortolan, elvis_knits,

roflcopter

, Stephoscope, Xylthixlm
4 MafiaSSK (Xylthixlm, ortolan,

Empking, populartajo

)
4

image

(Stephoscope,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits)
7

Mastin

(Xylthixlm, populartajo,

Nuwen

, MafiaSSK, elvis_knits, Stephoscope,

roflcopter

)
6

Nuwen

(elvis_knits,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm, Stephoscope, Empking, ortolan)
3 Empking (ortolan, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits)
5

image

(Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic)

Fail.

Lynch please.

[populartajo]

Why the fuck are you pushing Empking?

Empking is a claimed doctor. The only targetting PR besides me. My whole towniness depends of him. If you think he is scum, then I am also scum. Who thinks me and Emp are scum together? It just doesnt make sense.

All of Elvis, ort and Xyl know that he is not the best player of the world and that asking questions is not the way to go. I just learned that the bad way. What do you expect to get of him other than he is such a terrible reasoner?

There HAS to be a scum in the ort-xyl pair. Elvis, which is already obv town, is not even playing as I expect her to be playing. Im strongly leaning to Xyl here but I really need to check ort before.

tajo, if we can't ask him questions, how are we supposed to evaluate him? Are you just going to put all his bad play down as town bad play? What about scum bad play?

Also, I am still waiting for you to tell me why xyl is scum. I've gone back and forth on him several times and never really been able to feel too strongly one way or the other. So if you have a strong feeling, TELL ME WHY! I notice you played with him in MindScrew3, where he was scum. Similarities? Personally, I didn't have the patience to read much of the game and it was all weird mechanics so I found it hard to deduce anything about Xyl's scum play. But if you have a better read... speak up!

About Empking, I can link you to two-three games Ive been with him here talking to him was a pain in the ass. He was town and scum used him to try to generate mislynches and in some cases to win the game (Xyl knows this because it happened in Xylbot). Scum bad play is discarded becuase from my pov he has to be town. Empking-tajo scumpair is retarded as fuck and yes you can expect this from Emp but not from someone like me.

About Xyl, there are three points that dont make sense coming from Xyltown.

1. Changing suspicions, acording to the wagons, even to the point of starting a wagon on someone he thought was town. (Nuwen and Image, respectively, are a big example of this.)

2. Xyl is not a follower. Xyl has an ego of a size of the America. Xyl following people and going is not usual in Xyltown.

'Im in wimp mode right now. It happens right around after I've been heavily pushing three town wagons.

This is Not Xyl town.

3. Deficient scumhunting.

a)Xyl never uses FOSes.

b)DGB case. DGB proves that his emotional behaviour also makes sense from a town perspective. (Toasder Strudel was his alt). Xyl's point against her was that emotional behaviour only made sense from DGBscum (Invitational) Even after that, when the wagon is so close to the lynch, Xyl doesnt listen and continues the push for his lynch.

c)What was the point of 2710? You complied a lot of information but failed to provide a decent analysis of it. Rather than that you just asked others what did they think of the Empking-Tajo following votes.

d) Ortolan is obv town why?

[populartajo]

Fail.

Lynch please.

Fail.

Lynch please.

vote: populartajo

Bravo, Xyl,

Your case is:

[populartajo]

This is Xyl relation with antihero (now scum Mastin) when Malyss was lynched to prevent him getting to 72 hours timer.

I express my bad feeling regarding Malyss. Xyl posts this:

So vote Malyss then.

Really seems like Xyl wanted to rush a Malyss lynch.

Malyss comes up town. Xyl posts this:

I was for lynching Malyss well before the quickwagon appeared, and against rushing the lynch to beat Antihero's timer. Feel free to read my posts to confirm this.

This was false. Xyl realizes this in his next post.

tajo is right, I didn't say anything about not needing to rush to lynch Malyss. My bad. I swear I wrote a post to that effect, but I guess it got edited down.

Too bad, no?

"STOP! HAMMER TIME!" was because I am inherently bloodthirsty, not because of the Antihero timer.

Arg, with smiley included. You know how to catch when someone is lying, dont you?

[populartajo]

Fail. See... any game where I'm town, really.

You push wagons on someone you think is town?

Fail. See War In Heaven 2.

I guess you could have learned something from it. Do you agree that your wimp mode can be used also from a scum pov?

Fail.

Ok, my bad. You said you dont usually use them. Why here?

I didn't believe that DGB would be so dumb as to push her own lynch. I was wrong.

Why did you think DGB was scum?

I like compiling information. It helps other people analyze it. I don't need an ulterior motive

.
I want your analysis of it now.

ortolan isn't obv town.

What do you think of him?

[populartajo]

I didn't think Nuwen was town when I was pushing the wagon on her, obv.

What was the breaking point?

Because she (DGB) was pushing her own lynch.

And that makes her scum why?

If you color populartajo and Empking red, it all makes sense.

If I color a random pair after all that has happened, it all can make sense. My point is what was the idea of posting that if you werent going to analyse it? Even worse, what did you expect others would say?
[quote="Xyl]Unsure. Need a reread. I like his current play though. [/quote]
Waiting for this.

[populartajo]

I totally hate how Kin and Xyl are bringing suspicions to Steph.

Steph is the most prob town of the masons.

[populartajo]

And that makes her scum why?

Because I didn't believe DGB would do something so dumb as town.

As scum?

[populartajo]

Truthfully, this should have been dealt with earlier. I'm not willing to vote any of the vanilla at this time and while I have my doubts about Steph and SSK I'm not to the point where I'm going to vote either of them either.

Given the choice between pop and Emp, I don't like Emp's play, but I can't put it down to scum yet.

Pop is the only player I can reasonably vote for. He should have been lynched earlier, and I hate having to rest a lynch on him when the game could be on the line, but he's the best choice in my opinion at this time.

vote:pop

Sigh.

You do realize this is prob Lylo. You are voting someone who you arent even sure is scum.

Im pretty sure at least one of "Xyl, ort and Kin" is scum if not all of them. Two seems the right number here but they are jumping against me so easy without thinking it very much even when today could be game over.

Kinetic, if I am scum who are my scumpartners?

Why if you think I am scum, you dont think the same about Empking? You think a claimed doctor could make sense without a claimed tracker?

Why do you think the vanillas are town when its painfully obvious at least one scum claimed vanilla?

[populartajo]

Xyl, please answer these questions.

I didn't think Nuwen was town when I was pushing the wagon on her, obv.

What was the breaking point?

Because she (DGB) was pushing her own lynch.

And that makes her scum why?

If you color populartajo and Empking red, it all makes sense.

If I color a random pair after all that has happened, it all can make sense. My point is what was the idea of posting that if you werent going to analyse it? Even worse, what did you expect others would say?

Unsure. Need a reread. I like his current play though.

Waiting for this.

[populartajo]

Stephoscope and Empking in red:

10

zwetschenwasser

(

roflcopter

, ortolan,

antihero

, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK,

Stephoscope

,

Empking

, populartajo,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
5 populartajo (

roflcopter

,

image

, q21, elvis_knits,

Stephoscope

)
9

Malyss

(

Xtoxm

, Xylthixlm,

DrippingGoofball

,

image

, q21,

BrianMcQueso

,

Empking

, populartajo,

roflcopter

)
5

DrippingGoofball

(elvis_knits,

Stephoscope

,

Empking

,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm)
8

Xtoxm

(

SpyreX

,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits,

Empking

,

Stephoscope

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Xtoxm

)
8

DrippingGoofball

(Xylthixlm,

roflcopter

, ortolan,

Empking

,

SpyreX

,

image

, elvis_knits)
5

image

: ortolan, elvis_knits,

roflcopter

,

Stephoscope

, Xylthixlm
4 MafiaSSK (Xylthixlm, ortolan,

Empking

, populartajo)
4

image

(

Stephoscope

,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits)
7

Mastin

(Xylthixlm, populartajo,

Nuwen

, MafiaSSK, elvis_knits,

Stephoscope

,

roflcopter

)
6

Nuwen

(elvis_knits,

roflcopter

, Xylthixlm,

Stephoscope

,

Empking

, ortolan)
3

Empking

(ortolan, Xylthixlm, elvis_knits)
5

image

(Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic)

Interesting how at least one of them is on (almost) every wagon.

Actually, what I meant was Pop/Steph scum team

Again, this doesnt make sense. Steph is way beyond townier than the rest of the masons, second most prob town after Elvis.

Why do you think he is scum?

[populartajo]

Im pretty sure at least one of "Xyl, ort and Kin" is scum if not all of them. Two seems the right number here but they are jumping against me so easy without thinking it very much even when today could be game over.

So you think the scum are the three people voting you?

I said at least one of that three is scum, prob two.

Really this is the point where people should be thinking very well where to put their votes.

Nobody is doing that.

[populartajo]

Its also interesting to realize that Xyl softly agrees with Kinetic about Steph being prob scum when it has been stated many times that Steph is the most prob town of the masons.

[populartajo]

Elvis, if this game is solved with "you are scum because your claim doesnt make sense" instead of scummy behavior, then there is not much I can do.

This isnt a normal game. Its the first game Ive played with two lynches a day, three masons and two "random" power roles. I agree it looks bad but Ive given my best to prove Im town.

[populartajo]

Your point is that this is a mountanious setup without even caring about masons, that means a game with only goons and vanillas.

The point you have to analyse Elvis is that if I were scum I would have known mafia only had goons. Tracker would have been a retarded claim. I softclaimed my role even before I was heavily threatened to get lynched.

Also, I dont see how a godfather makes sense in this game. Ive seen plenty of games with roleblockers and goons only.

[populartajo]

I admit I have no idea how to deal with the masons or how they fit into this. I hate them so much (not steph, but the others).

At this point, Im going to assume there has to be one scum in the masonry.

If scum only had goons, would that make you think there's no town power roles?

I cant remember a single large name where scum only had goons and town had targetting power roles. But I could wrong here.

Really? I'm not the queen of setups and balance, so I don't know. Can you give me some examples?

I am not either but from the top of my head I think in newbie games and Family Guy where we were together.

At this point tajo, I really want to lynch kinetic because he's being scummy and a huge dick. He's bullying steph for no reason that I can see.

I agree but I can see Kinetic doing this as town too. Really need a reread to decide between him and ssk.
What do you think of Xyl?

[populartajo]

Your point about him being on every wagon is somewhat valid. But does it make any difference to you that he is first or second on many wagons?

This wasnt my point. I think EMpking was the one pointing out this and Im not even sure if his idea was to bring a point or just make fun of Xyl.

I usually see scum joining wagons rather than starting them. Of course sometimes they start wagons, but I think they're usually more opportunistic, and switch their vote to a wagon already started.

I tend to agree with this. But do you think this fits with the "wimp mode" Xyl said to be in?

[populartajo]

Also I'm "bullying" Steph because his reactions and actions make me think he's scum. I think that is a pretty good reason. You're doing much the same to me for much the same reason, no?

Kin, please explain what actions and reactions make you think Steph is scum.

Do you disagree with me about him being second prob town after Elvis?

[populartajo]

Your point is that this is a mountanious setup without even caring about masons, that means a game with only goons and vanillas.

The point you have to analyse Elvis is that if I were scum I would have known mafia only had goons. Tracker would have been a retarded claim. I softclaimed my role even before I was heavily threatened to get lynched.

Also, I dont see how a godfather makes sense in this game. Ive seen plenty of games with roleblockers and goons only.

Why do you keep setup speculating?

That was a question from Elvis.

[populartajo]

SSK, who is scum?

[populartajo]

Xyl, do you think a mafia RB would necessitate a mafia GF?

No. But, I do think it's possible that Yosarian2 would throw a mafia RB and a mafia GF into a setup with no active town power roles.

And this makes sense how?

[populartajo]

Xyl you think I am scum? In probabilities?

[populartajo]

Xyl you think I am scum? In probabilities?

Mmm... I'd say 70%.

I assume Im at the top of your list.
Can I have a list with the other players as well?

[populartajo]

Elvis: imagine the masons were confirmed and one had come up dead. Would you still advocate lynching a 100% town playerfor going over 72h? I wouldn't.

And this is related to Mastin how?

[populartajo]

Elvis 2824. Thx for at least giving me a chance after you have been all over me all the game. I would probably come up with something similar if I had more time in the office. Antihero-Xyl is pretty interesting to analyze, check my previous posts to find a more detailed case. Xyl-ortolan relationship is something I also dont understand. I doubt both are scum, though.

[populartajo]

3 populartajo (ortolan, Xylthixlm, Kinetic)
1 Kinetic (Stephoscope)

4 Unvote (elvis_knits, Empking, MafiaSSK, populartajo)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

I dont even know why ortolan is voting me.

Unvote Vote: Xyl.

Im going with my gut here.

[populartajo]

It's related to another of elvis's points

I guess you didn't read her case because you already know who's scum

I think 2829 just proved you wrong.

[populartajo]

SSK, who is scum?

Stephy or you

SSK, this is crap.

First, why do you think I am scum?

And second, of all the masons the most prob town is Steph.

[populartajo]

I liked your previous judgement where you were calling me town better

You probably also liked previous judgements where she was calling me scum better.

[populartajo]

Elvis 2824. Thx for at least giving me a chance after you have been all over me all the game. I would probably come up with something similar if I had more time in the office. Antihero-Xyl is pretty interesting to analyze, check my previous posts to find a more detailed case. Xyl-ortolan relationship is something I also dont understand. I doubt both are scum, though.

Xyl, is it too hard to get a complete list of people and what do you think of them?

[populartajo]

Xyl, you have to admit that's pretty weak.

You correctly call one of the scum, with no reason for doing so, and repeatedly call his SCUMZOR, yet never vote him?

You call lots of people scum based on your gut, and go after all of them except the one who really is scum?

Huge coincidence!

This is very potent against you and its precisely what gave me an off feeling about you, specially after the wimp mode you claimed to be when the majority of mislynches start with your vote. Do you at least agree?

[populartajo]

For the people suspecting Stephescope here are some of his quotes regarding the masonry:

I think MafiaSSK's either a bored townie, or a townie with some plan we don't yet understand, or he really does have some ridiculous role. I think the chance of any of that is much greater than his being scum.

I am so with you. And thanks for not putting MafiaSSK on your list. He's not scum.

I plead with you all to unvote MafiaSSK

Because it sure looks like we're close to figuring this all out,
because I want people to unvote MafiaSSK,
and because this further incriminates DGB

I am a Daymason.

I am a pro-town Daymason. I won't dare speak for MafiaSSK.

Technically, I didn't do this. I begged everyone not to lynch MafiaSSK, and then claimed Daymason. Everyone can draw his or her own conclusions.

I am a Daymason, and I know with 100% certainty that MafiaSSK is town-aligned.

I cannot confirm or deny how much your PM looks like the one I received, but yes, "you" being interpreted as plural in the win condition (vs. a switch to singular or arbitrary) is the exact source of the disconnect between my earlier confidence and later confusion/hesitation to answer.

First of all, if Steph were a scum mason he would not be so sure about SSK being town for belonging to the masonry.

Second, all the confusion regarding mason=town is difficult to fake if he indeed were a scum mason.

Finally, this implies that Steph has a protown mason role and that he didnt even think about masons being scum.

Therefore, of all the masons, Steph is the most confirmed of all. I doubt both Kin and SSK are scum, so one of them has to start to make sense right now.

The presence of a scum in the masonry also could explain why none of the masons is dead yet even when they claimed early.

[populartajo]

Hey, my intuition is just about right. According to mith's calculations here, an 18-player double day vanilla game is balanced by 3 scum (EV 49%) or 4 scum (EV 36%). I can definitely see 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons.

I dont get this. 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons? That means that there is a scum in the masonry?

[populartajo]

I sincerely doubt we have 4 scum in a double day game. I really do.

I think the most likely explanation in a game where masons can easily be confirmed as easy as day 1 and where there are no abundant night kills, is that there has to be a scum in the masonry.

This explains why a)the masionry hasnt worked and b)why all the masons are alive so far.

Do I have to repeat why an Empking-.Tajo scumteam would be retarded?

[populartajo]

Okay. 3-man remaining scumgroup case ONLY. Just for clarity I think we have only 2 scum left, but in that case we have one mislynch before LyLo.

What we have to work with:
1. We can't have both a claimed power role and a mason be scum. It would leave the scum overpowered.
2. No more than one mason is scum.
3. Tajo's claim is ridiculous unless empking's is also true.
4. If neither tajo nor two of me/ortolan/Kinetic are scum, scum would have hammered in one. Elvis, in particular, could have easily hopped onto the tajo wagon and then waited for a scumbuddy.

The possible scumgroups divide into three basic sets.

Combinations with a power role(s) as scum

populartajo+Empking+ortolan
populartajo+Empking+Xylthixlm
populartajo+Empking+elvis_knits
populartajo+ortolan+Xylthixlm
populartajo+ortolan+elvis_knits
populartajo+Xylthixlm+elvis_knits

Combinations with a mason as scum

MafiaSSK+ortolan+Xylthixlm
Stephoscope+ortolan+Xylthixlm
Kinetic+ortolan+Xylthixlm
Kinetic+ortolan+elvis_knits
Kinetic+Xylthixlm+elvis_knits

Combinations with all vanillas as scum

ortolan+Xylthixlm+elvis_knits


So there are teams which involve me, but not elvis_knits or populartajo, with ortolan and a mason. Hmm. I hadn't noticed those ones before because I wasn't looking.

Hey elvis, what do you think of ortolan?

This list fails because Xyl is assuming that if there is a lying power role it has to be me. Both power roles are either telling the truth (youd have to be me to believe me here) or both are lying.

Do you really think that if I am lying, Emp is a doctor?

Also, Im not WIFOMing about the masons. Its my opinion and Im pretty sure Im right here.

Meh, I dont have the time to make lists but I really dont see how me and Xyl are different regarding suspicions. This has become basically trying to outguess the mode, finding a way to balance the game without taking in count two claimed power roles and not caring about who is scummy and whatnot.

[populartajo]

Well

You 3-man analysis looks good, except that you forgot that me bussing Tajo is ridiculous

Cross that out too and you're left with only 2 scum left. I guess my balance analysis was right!

4 scum against 3 masons and vanillas in a double day game.

This is imbalanced and doesnt make sense at all.

The most likely distribution is 4-5 scum (including a mason) against 2 power roles, vanillas and 2 protown masons. The masonry is the breaking point. You are ignoring the masonry why?

[populartajo]

Cool

Vote Tajo then

No.

[populartajo]

If they are unconfirmed, would they still have protown power?

[populartajo]

Tajo's bullshit to explain how he can possibly be what he claims is painful

Its not bullshit. Its the truth. You are using balancing issues to prove Im scum and its not going to work. Empking-Tajo is retarded as shit and Ive explained why. Yet you keep pushing it.

Im not trying to convince you, Xyl.

You are obivously not going to believe me.

[populartajo]

Btw Tajo, did you look at mith's numbers I linked to? If not how can you call it imbalanced?

Common sense.

[populartajo]

You can fake any sort of interaction with your scumbuddies you want and use it to call the link "retarded", but you can't fake the setup.

Prove how Tajo-Empking makes common sense in your mind. Prove it.

Im not trying to fake the setup. Im working with what I have. I dont even know if there are 2 or 3 scum left. You conveniently do and you are pushing the most weak pair of all possible ones.

[populartajo]

Btw Tajo, did you look at mith's numbers I linked to? If not how can you call it imbalanced?

Common sense.

Bullshit. My common sense and mith's numbers agree. Yours apparently doesn't. Awfully convenient.

Work us through it like I did. Why do you think 4 scum and 3 masons is imbalanced? What are you comparing to?

Face an scenario where the 3 masons and the 2 power roles confirm each other (which is basically what you are pushin is happening right now with the exception of power roles).

How can scum deal with them in this double day scenario where night kills ratio are reduced to the day lynchs? And even when they are four?

Does this makes common sense to you?

Really, XYl?

[populartajo]

Face it. When your only hope of winning is to convince the town that mith got his math wrong AND a mason is scum, you've fucked up your claim.

If a mason is scum, would mith numbers still work?

[populartajo]

The point is that there was no FUCKING case against me when peple were voting me and you, specially you, was asking for a full claim.

Even more, if I were scum, I would have killed Elvis (and rolf to a lesser extent) as soon as day 1. Call it WIFOM or whatever the fuck you want. I dont care. Interesting how you are cool with her when she suspects me and when she doesnt, you cant believe she is thinking that.

[populartajo]

Also, answer the questions. Im tired of you evading questions and using "Oh, I cant convince you, so Ill drop the item"

[populartajo]

Thinking about this.

The only advantage I see of this is that we are reducing the suspect pool (in the best scenario) when its already reduced.

I will also look through the arguments to find out what Kinetic is trying to say.

[populartajo]

If there are only 2 scum left, scum cannot afford to not NK. In this scenario if they don't we have two lynches (bringing the game to 6 players) and their NK on the following day will only bring the 5 player gambit with 2 scum.

Oh, this is nice. Basically we win another lynch before scum can nk.

Making it a normal game is not a bad idea overall in a lylo situation.

Agree. The worse case scenario is the same situation where we are today but with definitely more information.

Unvote Vote : No lynch.

[populartajo]

Im sorry about my activity in all my games. V/LA until the 2nd.

Just PLEASE dont lynch me.

[populartajo]

Reseting lurker time.

Still busy. Tonight.

Just do me a favor, lets say you all finally lynch me. When I come up town, who will you suspect and why? Just to feel you are doing the right here.

Vote > Xyl

[populartajo]

Apologies for taking so long to come back to post. Work is being a pain in the ass. Im not in the best mood but Ill try to give my ideas anyway.

First of all, and if it wasnt obvious, I got no result again. If someone think this is important, I went with SSK after thinking it some, more later.

Now, if I am not wrong the current situation is that everyone is waiting for me. Like why? Am I going to change your mind when your first post of the day is "omg, lynch tajo plox, gg"?

I doubt this, so I assume that the only way you are going to listen me is with my flip. It sucks when the reason you are lynched is because "your suck claims, diescumdie" but hey, I am no expert here. If I vote myself, would I still play against my win condition? Fuck yeah.

Thats why I ask and nobody, not even Elvis, has answered: what does my flip give you once Im lynched. Will Xyl post again %$#$%? Will ortolan post that he trusted his ability to read me once again?

The only good thing is that my lynch wont probably win the game for scum.

I was not going to post this but whatever, think for a second, everyone:

People supporting my lynch think its me and Empking, specially Xyl and ortolan. Besides that being a retarded scumpair after both "fakeclaiming" power roles, do you think I could go with the No NK option when almost half of the players were against me and my supposedely only chance to win the game was to nk someone?

Thhink, people. This confirms, IMO, that we are facing a 3 scum team that 100% has Xyl and prob ortolan on it with a scum in the masonry. My situation was shitty yesterday, do you really think I deliberately put myself in the same situation than yesterday?

[populartajo]

Just do me a favor, lets say you all finally lynch me. When I come up town, who will you suspect and why? Just to feel you are doing the right here.

I'll figure that out

if

you come up town.


So, why is tajo still alive? He's obviously stalling and hoping someone else will go over 72h.

If you had at least checked my profile, you would realize that I didnt post in all my games in the last 48 hours. Im not stalling anything and shit happens, you know?

You are not playing like a townie, Xyl.

[populartajo]

yes Empking I think pretended to protect you from harm by failing to submit a night-kill

tajo hasn't even bothered to lie about who he targeted last night

[populartajo]

You're not obv town. I just figured you wouldn't go for the nolynch/nokill thing if you were scum.

Why? Being in the same situation benefits more him or me?

[populartajo]

If we lynch town twice today, unless the scum have multiple night kills we still end up at WORST in LyLo tomorrow. No killing for a 2 scum group is VERY risky here, and why I don't think they would have done it. If they did, well, its a gamble that they would only play if they were SURE they have at least one confirmed player among their roster.

Xyl and ort, do you really think its me and Empking, even after reading this?

Bah, too easy, lynch me and then lynch Xyl.

[populartajo]

People supporting my lynch think its me and Empking, specially Xyl and ortolan. Besides that being a retarded scumpair after both "fakeclaiming" power roles, do you think I could go with the No NK option when almost half of the players were against me and my supposedely only chance to win the game was to nk someone?

Thhink, people. This confirms, IMO, that we are facing a 3 scum team that 100% has Xyl and prob ortolan on it with a scum in the masonry. My situation was shitty yesterday, do you really think I deliberately put myself in the same situation than yesterday?

I have no qualms with this, if you flip tracker I will agree Empking is town and there are 3 remaining scum- I would definitely want to lynch Kinetic. Otherwise if you're scum we kill Empking and win the game. It is impossible that neither you nor Kinetic are scum.

Please provide reasons why you think Emp and me are scum besides the power roles situation.
Kinetic over SSK?
Why?

[populartajo]

populartajo is a necessary lynch even if you're not sold on him being scum

If he's scum we lynch Empking

If he flips tracker we believe Empking's doctor claim, know there is a roleblocker in the setup which means we have a setup with tracker, doctor and scum roleblocker which gives us more information about the masons, if they are indeed masons (makes one of them more likely to be scum)

Fail. Why the hell are you ignoring Xyl? My flip should put Xyl in the hotseat more than anyone at this point. Isnt that obvious?

[populartajo]

Yeah, its defintely Xyl and ortolan. Painfully obvious.

[populartajo]

Bah, too easy, lynch me and then lynch Xyl.

Sounds like a plan.

vote tajo

Im so glad you are still alive. What made you change your mind abotu me?

[populartajo]

Also, everyone please answer this:

Just do me a favor, lets say you all finally lynch me. When I come up town, who will you suspect and why? Just to feel you are doing the right here.

Vote > Xyl

[populartajo]

I already did, if you come up town I would lynch Kinetic/Xyl from memory

So Kinetic is more prob scum than SSK?

God.

[populartajo]

My situation was shitty yesterday, do you really think I deliberately put myself in the same situation than yesterday?

I'm buying this.

You're buying WIFOM?

Its not WIFOM. Im pretty sure everyone but me would be in a worst situation than yesterday if there had been a night kill.

Xyl, if you are town as you shout, then who will you push when I die?

[populartajo]

Why the hell would I have killed Elvis when she was pushing Xyl yesterday?

Elvis, Im not bitter but Im a bit worried in why you changed your mind about me.

[populartajo]

Oh yeah.

Tajo: I don't know who I'd push if you come up town. If that happens I'm realistically going to be lynched next anyways.

This Ort-Xyl connection is weird as fuck.

Please, make an effort. If you are town, you should.

[populartajo]

Why has tajo still not claimed who he targeted last night?

Pay attention. I said SSK.

Ortolan isnt even reading what Im posting.

For God's fucking sake.

[populartajo]

Ortolan, last chance. Im scum why.

Also this.

I already did, if you come up town I would lynch Kinetic/Xyl from memory

So Kinetic is more prob scum than SSK?

God.

[populartajo]

Oh yeah.

Tajo: I don't know who I'd push if you come up town. If that happens I'm realistically going to be lynched next anyways.

This Ort-Xyl connection is weird as fuck.

Please, make an effort. If you are town, you should.

You keep saying I should but it isn't true.

Why not?

[populartajo]

tajo, if you're town, we lynch Xyl.

Thoughts of Ort, please Elvis. I think Im into something here. Second lynch of the day is very probable Lylo.

[populartajo]

this town gets the rubber stamp of fail

any reason why you are calling SSK town?

[populartajo]

and no, lynching me is not acceptable as I am in none of my potential scum teams and I have never said it is guaranteed tajo is scum but simply that his lynch is optimal

OMG. What do you mean you are not in the potential scum teams? According to who? According to Kinetic, who is more prob scum than SSK?

And for fucking sake, you have said all day things that I need to die and that im obv scum lynch plox.

Backtracking much?

Sorry scum, you are busted. You and Xyl need to die now. You thought you had this on the bag, dont you?

Unvote Vote : Ortolan.

[populartajo]

this town gets the rubber stamp of fail

any reason why you are calling SSK town?

The fail is that

you aren't lynched yet

.

And this is directed to who? Before the SSK vote it was all good times, (look he even voted for tajo) right Xyl?

Theres no a single reason to call SSK town even at this point of the game.

[populartajo]

tajo is not scumhunting, he is trying to avoid being lynched

he's very obvious scum

if he, laughably is town, we lynch Kinetic afterwards.

Can we please finish this game I don't wish to draw out the inevitable tajo-lynch any longer.

Oh good, now Im back to be obv scum.

You are free to say whatever the hell you want, Ort.

But you are not thinking like a townie. Why the hell My flip incriminates Kinetic? That doesnt make sense AT ALL. It CLEARLY incriminates you and Xyl.

[populartajo]

no, if you are not scum the only other option is Kinetic (and Kinetic/Xyl is a plausible scumteam but we can cross that bridge when we come to it).

explain why kinetic is the only other option
because im clearly not seeing it

[populartajo]

Reseting time.

As usual, weekends are for other kinds of fun.

See you on Monday.

[populartajo]

[populartajo]

im back reading all I missed.

post tomorrow

[populartajo]

Once again I fail at scum.

I think we were doing well but then Mastin lurked 72h and then bam, my strategy of making to near endgame keeping both Mastin and Empking alive to win the game for scum went to hell.

GG, people.

[populartajo]

Also yeah, we missed the NK.

I was busy that weekend.

Empking suggested Ort but I was like trying to get a WIFOM play, even in killing Xyl.

Town played good this one and I lost all hope when Kinetic came up with the no lynch idea.

Also killing the masons when they were being so antitown would have been a bad idea, even to the point where Elvis considered kiilling a mason first if I wasnt going to be lynched.

Really, the double day hurt us. If this game would have been single day, I think we could have done better.

Also best scumgroup ever. Zwet, Emp and Mastin FTW!

[populartajo]

tajo's "I'm confirmable" softclaim really lost the scum the game, it just took a while to kick in.

Score one for forcing hardclaims.

Yep. I think this was a bad decision but I dont think this lost scum the game. It helped me survive long enough to generate some mislynches before dying, even to the point where I had Steph, Elvis and SSK prefering you or Ort over me. Really it was bad luck that goes to zwet being so paranoid when scum, Mastin lurking 72 hours and having to deal with double days and reduced night kills.

[populartajo]

Do you remember that they're not really masons?

Do you remember that scum masons are actually fairly rare, only make up one of the mason group, and that most people on the site know that?

Seriously, Kinetic was an obvious night kill once he was outed and Stephoscope should have been considered for the night kill before that point. Do you really want to keep a three person voting block (even if it doesn't quite trust itself) around for endgame?

Yep, I considered Kinetic for dying last night.

But Thok, killing Steph would have been a terrible play when he was obviously supporting me. I also knew that when DGB and Xtoxm were lynched he would totally switch his suspiocions of me.

Even if they were masons, the majority of the vanillas alive, but Xyl IIRC, thought at some point that there had to be a scum in the masonry.

[populartajo]

I really had a good time playing with everyone in this game. There were a lot of aggressive players, which made it fun and exciting even when we were fighting. I didn't like the suicides, but I still love DGB and Xtoxm, and would play with them anytime.

Threesome with rofl and steph was kinky and awesome.

Sorry for playing football with your spleen, nuwen.

Thanks Yos and Ether for a great game.

This except for the threesome and the spleen football.

[populartajo]

elvis was the mvp for being the most obv town and living to endgame to make the right choice

I'm a little embarassed I almost lynched Xyl after you were dead, but I blame that on my overwhelming grief upon your demise.

bzzzzzzzzzzzzt
wrong answer, carrie.

[populartajo]

Also, barring my horrible softclaim and posterior claim, did i play a good game, so-so, terrible? Where can I improve and such?

Thx in advance.

[populartajo]

tajo, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not at all and 10 is it was the only reason i did it, how much would you say my attack on you post zwet lynch caused you to try to softclaim your way to safety?

id say 3. i always panick when a wagon is growing against me, regardless of alignment.

[populartajo]

Good game, everyone. Very interesting how it played out...

When I balanced the setup, I was kind of assuming that at least a couple of townies would lurk and then get lynched for it, and gave the town a couple of extra townies to compensate for that.

Terrible assumption, Yos. After WIH2, which had a pretty similar player list, it was pretty clear that no one would lurk. You even said this to me once:

LOL, yos, you knew it was impossible to lurk in this game, huh?

Well, we'll see.

Ironically enough, the one who lurked was one of the mafiates.

But after all, it was a fun game. I love this kind of games. Thx for it. Fast and furious with very nice players that can make a point without posting wallotexts.

[populartajo]

Sorry for not posting the qt. I was waiting for other partners of my team to express conformity with it. Mastin, you should prob have waited for this but meh, I guess zwet and Emp could care less.

Regarding DGB-Xtoxm. I still think what I said about them. Im pretty sure that there is a point in the game where your lynch is inevitable and you are fighting a battle against tunneled townies and when no one (but scum for obvious reasons) listens to you. Selfhammering is, I agree, bad sportsmanship but it still can be used for strategic reasons, like bringing suspicion to people in your wagon when you are sure scum is on it or when you simply think you are done with the game and dragging it would be prejudicial. However, it sometimes doesnt work.

[populartajo]

I personally have trouble getting much useful info from an "inevitable" lynch, although I know there are people who can (or think they can). In general, I think that the closer a lynch is, the more useful info you get out of it. From that point of view, self-hammering is bad because it reduces information.

As for self-hammering for strategic reasons, well, just look at how much good it did DGB. Not only was she completely wrong about the scum, but nobody paid any attention to her scumlist after she died anyways.

I agree with what you say, Xyl.

The point you have to evaluate is that if DGB and Xtoxm did it because they thought they were helping their team. If they did it because of this, then I dont think this is as terrible as you want it to be.

[populartajo]

Just for the record, if I had been town I would also have defended both DGB and Xtomx and would have fought (more intensevely obv obv) against their lynches. I dont think they were obv scum as some proposed.

Im pretty sure on this. Some of my defense of both came out very natural.

[populartajo]

Zwet wtf was with you at the beginning posting my name when I hadnt even posted?

I really thought that many would put this against me when creating evidence.

[populartajo]

everybody agreeing with rolf please check War in Heaven mafia.

i think his playstyle is good (elvis has some good points) but sometime he just cant accept he is wrong. (and statically he is more than half of the time).

this time zwet just made things too obvious.

[populartajo]

I couldn't fight off his brainless clones either (Stephoscope most notably) because they were such mindless followers.

You can call me "brainless" and "mindless" and whatever else you like, but there was method to my madness. The reaction from the (innocent) players being called out as a scumteam was unlike the reaction I would have expected from townies who weren't sure about the alignments of the others. Oh well, live and learn.

DGB seems to get seized with absolute certainty that certain people are scum and certain other people are town. She then fights with all her strength for her convictions, no holds barred, no second guessing, even to the point of sacrificing herself to bring down someone she is sure is scum.

This does tend to make her not look like someone who is unsure of alignments.

The bigger problem is that when she's wrong her antics can be very bad for the town. I suspect she's right more often than average, but it's not enough to justify her singleminded certainty.

this

but also insert rolf instead of dgb.

youll find out something interesting.

[populartajo]

tajo, are you referring to War in Heaven 2?

not necessarily but you have another reference there.

some mislynches here were pretty much originated by him, even when he apparently was so sure of me being scum.

[populartajo]

that also why we didnt kill him night 1 and why at some point I thought I would need him to lynch you.

[populartajo]

Hint: they probably havent been attacked by your tunneled ways.