Wheel of Time Mafia: Rip in the Pattern (GAME OVER)

[armlx]

I am going to be AFK for a good chunk of this weekend due to finals + Magic prerelease, so barring some unforseen outside circumstance I won't be able to read the thread until tomorrow evening at earliest.

[armlx]

Finals suck, see signature. Missing the early game also sucks.

[armlx]

Just finished last final, wrapping up random stuff tonight, real post tomorrow.

[armlx]

God, I'm really SSKing this game.

Mod, feel free to replace me if I don't post content by Monday.

[armlx]

Something exists in the original Mac voting and counter voting. See that on D3 or so.

It may not be a Tar game, but Kinetic did steal Tar's ruleset, which gives me pause. Plus, if this was tried in the first game, I'd expect Kinetic would think of some way to mess people up.

Don't like this post. FUD.

The guards question is irrel as in this context neither guard knows what the other would say.

Fabian's 131 is odd to say the least. The subsequent wagon on fuzzy also seems fishy to me.

FOS MOS, Seraphim, and ABR

. IIRC at least one of these was on the earlier Mac counter wagon, which was odd.

Fabian's claim is very sketchy, I'm with Sajin. Also, add Isacc to the above list.

STRONG FOS Seraphim

for hopping on the ABR wagon with Flay.

The very end of Faraday's 256 reads very odd, like a retroactive justification in the same post.

ABR's presumptions about SpyreX's role are very odd (pg 11).

Through pg 12 right now, more later.

[armlx]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOL.

I just read the rest of this page. Jesus, a lynch on Fabian is needed.

[armlx]

Wait, forgot this was Deep South, I was going to wait on a vote till I was done reading, but that's kinda irrel in this format.

Vote xxFabianxx

[armlx]

I find the fact that you want to lynch me very anti-town.

I find the fact you straight up lied and are running the death miller defense very anti town.

Forgot bolding last post

Vote xxFabianxx

[armlx]

Flay's whole Jester thing is odd. Not indicative of alignment necessarily, just befuddling.

Isacc's 357 is + town points for logic.

Seraph unvoting to FOS 365 is suspicious. He's my #1 suspect now.

My thoughts on ABR are best summed up in KoC's 375. ABR's 381 makes me lean more the scumbag rather then douchebag. Again, Isacc is spot on in 383. SpyreX is also obv telling the truth.

Oh, wow. Just read ABR's claim, more likely the later. Sigh....

Tenchi's 463 interests me. Just a note for future reference. (Later note: See hascows 520, plus some other stuff).

Sigh at ABR being actively anti-town by not answering questions like an idiot. I'm not even sure what to say about him at this point, so I won't even bother.

Isacc's 535 befuddles me. The subsequent wagon is also suspect. Something Sajin did right before also triggered my scumdar, can't remember what ATM though. It was around page 22 though.

SpyreX's behavior once the Fabian wagon rebooted is odd to say the least.

I feel like I should have more of a read on Mufasa despite the low post count, but his posts have been pretty bland on top of that.

Caught up now by the way.

[armlx]

Isacc riding on the coat tails of the "ABR is being an asshole" thing from earlier to try fend off an attack deserves an

FOS Isacc

at the least.

[armlx]

Isacc riding on the coat tails of the "ABR is being an asshole" thing from earlier to try fend off an attack deserves an

FOS Isacc

at the least.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Clarify please.

You are trying to shrug off MoS's comment as an ad hom when it clearly is not.

[armlx]

That's terrible logic, insulting, wrong, and doesn't actually prove any point. Good job.

Isacc, am I reading this wrong?

[armlx]

Barn for me.

[armlx]

Yawn. Sounds more like angry ABR town then stupid ABR scum to me. Ignore, proceed, continue, repeat as necessary.

[armlx]

SpyreX: Why did you think KoC was scum? He was on my safe list after his discussion of flavor on page 12.

[armlx]

The Flay scenario is interesting. If he was scum, odds are he could just tell his partners as there's presumably "day" talk given this is Deep South. Its also possible he's some traitor role (Black Ajah maybe?) not in on a day talk, so....

Its still worth looking into, and Flay was one of the people who I was reasonably suspect of.

Vote Flay

[armlx]

I endorse the above post.

[armlx]

The Flay scenario is interesting. If he was scum, odds are he could just tell his partners as there's presumably "day" talk given this is Deep South. Its also possible he's some traitor role (Black Ajah maybe?) not in on a day talk, so....

Its still worth looking into, and Flay was one of the people who I was reasonably suspect of.

Vote Flay

I also like Flay as some sort of SK role, since that would explain the proposed lack of "day" talk.

Good call. I like the way you think.

[armlx]

MoS + Yos say things I can get behind. Flay is still interesting to monitor though. I like MBL's last point a lot though.

Unvote, Vote Isaac

[armlx]

I agree with Mufasa's post on this page. Untargetability is a common SK or scum bonus.

Also, suggesting an RB was RB'ed is iffy at best. See Xyl's layer resolution for more.

[armlx]

5 pages, only 3 relevant things, 2 of which are worth discussing now. Weak. Needs more SK lynch.

[armlx]

I currently endorse Flay lynch the most.

[armlx]

armlx: Why not vote/FOS, then?

Interested in how the start of day plays out with respect to Kair, plus it was early morning when I made that post and I was more interested in posting for reference purposes then actively interacting with the game.

Windmill BTW.

[armlx]

Why did you not try to investigate which of the two he was until just now?

[armlx]

V/LA this weekend starting tomorrow. Not sure exactly which yet, but probably the former.

Goat: Flay, Slicey maybe, rando lurker would be my top 3. I've got some good town reads on people, but that's about it.

[armlx]

Goat: Flay, Slicey maybe, rando lurker would be my top 3. I've got some good town reads on people, but that's about it.

Reasoning on those 2?

Flay's posts feel like he's holding back, Slicey doesn't seem like he is saying much despite posting and is trying to push the freeroll kill on obv town SpyreX, rando lurker as there's too many and I don't really have a scum read on another active or semi-active.

[armlx]

Flay, mentioning a Jester brings up lynch WIFOM and therefore makes things even more confounding, which is scummy.

Flay, from what I remember, in the Newbie you replaced into with me, you were far more aggressive then here. Why?

[armlx]

Back from smashing people at M:tG Regionals. Read the past couple pages, need to reread the voting patterns again.

[armlx]

IDK about Benmage, but the others I wouldn't be sad to see go.

[armlx]

Lets move this along some. I'm interested in what someone has to say for themself here.

Vote JVW

[armlx]

Unvote

Response hasn't motivated me to pursue this line of play.

[armlx]

MoS, I voted JMV, then unvoted about 5 posts later.

I can roll with a Flay lynch BTW.

[armlx]

Mod, see sig. If necessary, replace me

[armlx]

I'm not giving details on exactly how it works unless there's strong consensus for that, as it will nerf my ability.

This is SO scummy. That said, Flay using his ability on MBL here should work out. No more people should post those lists though as it auto confirms them not AS.

[armlx]

Wait, SpyreX, did you lose the requirement to follow the Oaths when you were gentled?

[armlx]

I say we wait 24-48 hours to let people get in potential twilight actions before hammering.

Vote Flay

[armlx]

I'm going to be away till a week from Monday.

[armlx]

No, I don't think it is very possible ABR. Why would he use the ability at all if he was? Its also terrible design.

[armlx]

Sounds absolutely awful. The role is essentially a do nothing.

[armlx]

Back for tonight, might reread, might not.

[armlx]

Slept in the Silo last night.

[armlx]

Barn for me.

Posted a while back.

[armlx]

Its going to take me a couple days to get properly situated and make a good post, but I'm back.

[armlx]

Kairyuu's numbers seem loose at best.

[armlx]

Silo last night BTW. N1 was Barn.

Kairyuu: 2, assuming multiple scum groups. If there was another pair, I would consider a 3 man Black Ajah scum group as possible. These aren't really as likely to be accurate as my predictions in Choose Carefully though, as this is a flavorful theme game and a lot of random things can happen in those.

SpyreX, I've been busy a fair amount this game, but while I've been here my activity has been less then par. I'm currently fairly caught up, but my main analysis comes down to the fact it appears we have a ton of information about night actions, and that our best plan of action is to look at what we have so far and consider whether its worth outing a likely power role or two to get more (I'm inclined to say not yet on that).

[armlx]

MoS, what is the reason to believe there isn't a 3rd Forsaken? The lack of kill? How does the presence of a 3rd Forsaken or lack there of drastically alter how we should play out today?

[armlx]

FOS Macavity + ABR

Something smells fishy here.

[armlx]

I agree strongly with Yosarian2 here.

[armlx]

Come on.............trust me...

No thanks, not convinced.

[armlx]

Mac, lets go over something.

Lets assume you do have another ability that isn't stilling. Is the EV of that ability more then marginally possible maybe doing something relevant? I'd say probably.

[armlx]

EBWODP:

So, if oyu do have another ability, why the fucking hell would you waste a night action on a do nothing. ABR has an RB, I would assume you do, even a blind RB is better.

I dont think its right for you to respond to this post in any way, as doing so would give away if you didn't have another option, but honestly, if you do what you did was an extremely terrible play. Presumably your other action would also be detectable as you are a Channeler, so reason 1 doesn't work.

[armlx]

EBWODP:

So, if oyu do have another ability, why the fucking hell would you waste a night action on a do nothing. ABR has an RB, I would assume you do, even a blind RB is better.

I dont think its right for you to respond to this post in any way, as doing so would give away if you didn't have another option, but honestly, if you do what you did was an extremely terrible play. Presumably your other action would also be detectable as you are a Channeler, so reason 1 doesn't work.

I think this entire post is just plain stupid. I think you either don't understand this game or you haven't been paying attention or both. I also think that it's not useful for ML to respond to this post, especially since it's crock full of shit reasoning.

I'm pretty sure I understand.

AS can detect in some manner Saidin use around them. Presumably, they have Saidin linked abilities, one of which is to "still" someone and cut them off of their Saidin linked abilities permanently.

The important parts of Mac using his ability last night all related to other people detecting it to confirm locations. Him trying to still someone would most likely do nothing to begin with, and was even more likely to given the fact MBL was OBV not AS to begin with. So, he essentially did something for the purpose of tracking. Any other non-vig ability would be better as it might actually do something.

[armlx]

I'm having a hard time reading armlxs' posts as anything other than "This is rolefishing, but don't respond to it."

The point is "This is a lesson, learn it, but if you respond it would make things even worse"

[armlx]

See above. If you other options were actually that bad, sure.

MoS, a full AS claim is probably valid at this point, given that

A) If Mac is telling the truth, the average AS power probably isn't to the point its worth specifically targeting them.

B) Actual infinite info to sort with the detect abilities.

One last thing

What did SpyreX do to confirm himself as actually having been a channeler in the first place? If there is a claim, I want those who stilled (or w/e) him to come forward with some notification of success, as I'm starting to wonder if its possible for a scum to have just run the gambit claim D1.

[armlx]

Despite the whole thing with Flay and the Jester? I'm unclear as to your thoughts on the setup, but do you think that possible multiple scumgroups would affect this?

SK maybe?

I don't think it's useful for us to claim colors/abilities, see Mac's post as well.

Concur. Simply claiming AS, who you targeted what night, and detections is all I would like to see.

[armlx]

I am Aes Sedai

MoS next.

[armlx]

Cool. ITT I learn I can't read and ABR hasn't changed at all.

[armlx]

TSS is my AS partner.

[armlx]

There might be people who have abilities they don't WANT to use, like MacLock claims.

[armlx]

See sig. Out of town starting mid this week until the start of next week. Will try to make a post about the info we have before then.

[armlx]

Going V/LA tomorrow, if possible I would like to proxy my vote to TSS, I trust his judgment here.

[armlx]

Back, should be caught up soon.

[armlx]

I like the idea of having only one person sleep at a location to see if they're scum or not...however what about if we have everyone else stay at a single location to see how many scum we are dealing with.

Sounds like a waste of the ability to find scum.

[armlx]

JVW/KoC seems like the thing we want to be testing today with a lynch.

[armlx]

MBL, could there be a 3rd RB?

[armlx]

Circles, circles swimming in circles.

I've lost my grasp on this game and I am quite vexed no one wants to tabulate ALL the night actions in one nice spot.

I would vote for: Set, Yos, JVW at the moment.

We need to pick a direction and carve out a knot and move. Lets not screw this up and end up missing the deadline.

This, only I seriously think JVW is the right direction.

[armlx]

I'm pretty sure daybreak effects show up on Detect Saidar.

[armlx]

IDK, this seems really loose. The part that rings wrong with me is GR trying to use the "Its too stupid to be a lie" defense.

[armlx]

Armlx, why isn't SK's ability on the detect Saidar?

Not sure. I missed this issue in the confusion about the night actions, but its a good point. I see where you are coming from now.

Vote: Setael

Going out of town for a day, don't want to miss deadline.

[armlx]

I targeted Setael. Forgot to change targets after the lynch decision swapped, but the ability still resolved, which is odd.

[armlx]

This is interesting.

Red Ajah.

[armlx]

Apparently, I am not a Red Ajah. I am of the Amyrlin Seat, whatever that means, and I do not have a official color. I do have a red ability, hence my assumption. The only night I used it however was the night of the mass RB, partly due to the name being misleading and partly due to worrying about possible implications of chain RB's on KC at that point. I have used other abilities every other night.

[armlx]

I would like to hear armlx explain what abilities, passive or otherwise, he gains from being Amyrlin Seat.

So, what you are saying is that you want me to claim, but are trying to say so in a way that would make me do so just because you and not you + angry mob say so?

[armlx]

I would like to hear armlx explain what abilities, passive or otherwise, he gains from being Amyrlin Seat.

So, what you are saying is that you want me to claim, but are trying to say so in a way that would make me do so just because you and not you + angry mob say so?

[armlx]

It would help me judge whether I think you are protown or not.

It would help scum judge whether or not I should die tonight as well.

Take your pick. I really don't see your point as a valid reason to publicly claim.

[armlx]

KoC seems to have this argument on lock.

[armlx]

Armlx, can you give us something more about your role. It sounds like one of those farfetched ones we've already strung up.

This fish is not hungry for your worm on a hook.

[armlx]

I think we give Saijin 1 more day to prove he was doing anything. Prob is scum though.

[armlx]

I'm pretty sure those fall under opinions, so they aren't lies.

[armlx]

You are unsure if the statement is a lie Yos. Seriously, if the mod were to punish people for that, either A) he would have to universally punish every AS who said "X is scum", which may include punishing the truth or B) we could break the game with what are more or less free cop investigations ("X is scum", oh, I haven't been punished, he is, kill him).

[armlx]

Anyway, since he's completly refusing to explain himself here,

Vote:The Silent Speaker

until he does explain this vauge "mod information" he's talking about that apparently dosn't come from an investigative role.

Could you actually misrepresent his posts more?

[armlx]

And referenced when he got it by noting his targeting results?

[armlx]

Blacksmith

Revised Ones:

One each from Windmill, Blacksmith, and River

One each to Windmill and Blacksmith


Original Detection:

Two to Windmill

One each from Windmill, Blacksmith, and River

[armlx]

I think it was that Benmage specifically referenced that he had lost his powers as punishment that caused his demise.

[armlx]

V/LA from now till Monday.