ISO 3 and 4 are so scum saying "look how calm I am about this wagon forming on me, I can't be scum"
Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)
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Devotress Goon
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My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.
Vote fate
ISO 3 and 4 are so scum saying "look how calm I am about this wagon forming on me, I can't be scum"-
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Devotress Goon
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Can I get one last confirmation from Spyrex, please:SpyreX wrote:Queue Thread wrote:If you /in I will PM you town or scum. AT THAT POINT if you may choose to give me draft numbers. Or, you can wait until they must be in.
This confirms that scum knew their allignment before draft numbers, it doesn't confirm they were given their buddy list before draft numbers. Infact, scum couldn't have been given their buddy list before draft numbers, because roles were assignedAs people signed up, meening all of their buddies hadn't been descided yet.
Spyrex, did scum know all their buddies before sending in numbers?
If we have to follow down this wifom hole I'd rather be sure we're actually right about this, because I still don't think we are.-
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Devotress Goon
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So I was wrong, and there is some merit in the numbers game, but there is only merit as far as after we have flips. eg: Spyrex is probably not Vi's scum buddy because Spyrex and Vi both picked 2.
I still say that using the numbers before we have flips is plain silly though, scum could have easily picked the same thing as a bunch of townies. There is nothing town telly about being in a multi picked number.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12937curiouskarmadog wrote:question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?
It hurts me to link that thread for how bad scum(which I was) did that game.-
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Devotress Goon
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We actually have a 4.5% chance of hitting scum, if anyone was wondering.
There are plenty of people who want to lynch fate though(me), but your numbers case is bad. You're overblowing the numbers way too much, and you're doing the fate wagon no favours with all this numbers talk. No matter how many percent chances you decide to make up(and making up IS what you are doing with "50%"), it just sounds like you're trying to justify lynching all power roles.-
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Devotress Goon
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I took that post as him being jokey about getting votes. I think people making it overly clear how calm and jokey they are about their wagon seem scummy.wolframnhart wrote:With the vote against The1fifi I didn't even think of Fate as vengful lyncher based off his "According to plan" quote though maybe i should have.-
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Devotress Goon
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Your logic doesn't fail(though I personally don't want to lynch that way), and I see where you're coming from. It fails when you start to call it a mathematical statistic. It isn't. It's based on an assumption of an unproven theory. The theory can be sound and accurate, but when you start assigning math to it you're making stuff up. Any number you assign to it other than 4.5% is wrong.Hoopla wrote: Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.
You get what I mean?-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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I do believe scum doubling up is a realistic possibility.
Look how many people on the list got relatively high up with a secondary number. It would be perfectly reasonable for scum to double up and still expect to have a good chance of getting middle of the road. Middle of the road is good enough to probably still grab a good scum power.
Hell, in the last Pick your Power I was The20thperson to pick a power and I still landed a decent scum power.
The free cheap distancing* from doubling up is worth it.
*not really the right use of distancing, but you get what I mean.-
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Devotress Goon
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For reference, to show why scum could assume they could double up and still have a good shot at getting power roles, here is the top 6 on the draft list from the first pick your power:
I bolded Strangercoug, because he was the highest person who doubled up, and everyone below him also doubled up.1.) Cobalt (3,4)
2.) Elvis_Knits (6,15)
3.) Vi (12,6)
4.) Chamber (14,15)
5.) StrangerCoug (4,7)
6.) Faraday (4,12)
As you can see, many people who doubled up still ended up very high on the draft list(5 and lower).
and if you look at this games draft list, doubled up people faired even higher, with the first doubled person appearing at THIRD.
I think the Risk/reward as far as doubling up goes, is worth it. If I was scum I would have advocated it.Socrates (12,1)
Fate (13,4)
bouncy.bouncy (2,1)
Cobalt (2,10)-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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There you guys go with the numbers again. Stop applying factual numbers onto a theory. I agree with the theory I don't agree it's factual math.
I've never argued we shouldn't lynch fate by the way, but I want to lynch him cause he recieved a scum role pm not because he picked good draft numbers.
Tell you what, if hoopla and tonymontana both flip scum I probably wont try and lynch you. That's the security you're wanting out of this right dramonic?-
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Devotress Goon
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Because mafia know where they are on the list and I don't know where mafia are on the list. Mafia could, theoretically be low on the list and safely backing this plan. An acceptance of this plan sets up chain mislynched too, if scum aren't on the top of the list.dramonic wrote:Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?
Not only does it set up potential chain mislynched, it sets up potential chain mislynched of the player slots that were likely to get the good roles like cop, vig, bulletproof.
Putting it simply, it plain benefits scum more than town. The worst case scenario of not following your plan is this:
Some scum are high on the list, and we don't vote them out based on numbers, we can still hit scum lower on the list, and we can still hit scum high on the list, by using normal scum hunting means.
The worst case scenario of following your plan though:
We vote out the highest people, killing off our best power roles, and giving the scum 2 free mislynched and 2 free night kills.
Tldr: Risk reward is that if you're right and we don't follow, we can still kill scum high on the list by other means, if you're wrong and we do follow, we give the scum 4 gaurenteed free kills.
See what I mean? I'm sure I rambled a bunch in this post, but I can't be bothered to clean it up unless it turned out unreadable.-
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Devotress Goon
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Too bad.Porkens wrote:FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)unvote fate
Fate's posting has been good lately, he really only had 2 posts that were the reason I voted for him, and has had many more posts since those 2 that aren't keeping up the same scummy behavior.
I also don't like a couple people on his wagon and am not sure I want to be voting with them.
More later, just wanted to get a quick unvote in while I had time to be around.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Fate wrote:I'm not forgetting that you're #2 in the draft order, as there was barely anything scummy about you, Fate*
*Fixed.Hoopla wrote:A watcher watches two players visit the house of a townie who is murdered - don't tell me you wouldn't use that information against a player, even if there was barely anything scummy about them.Devotress wrote:If being one of 2 people who visisted a dead person only increased your odds of being scum by 5.1 percent I wouldn't.
Sorry for reposting all this when it's on this page, I'm just showing Dramonic what I was talking about. Basically, she(sorry for calling you he earlier) states something that is not a 50% chance at all, and then brings up a 50 percent chance hypothetical as if that was simaler/relavent.-
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Devotress Goon
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@Rayfrost, bouncy, and because I wasn't on the internet for a bit over a day now.
vote bouncy
Reasons: ISO6, and weak excuse for joining the fate wagon.
The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Jack wrote:Questions for reference:
1) How many people here thought about what strategy the mafia would use when picking numbers before the game?
2) How many think my math in ISO 16 is wrong?
If hardly any people do then it points very strongly to hoopla being scum.
Hoopla is just being stubborn because he thought he stumbled across a brilliant strategy, and is ignoring your actual math post because he doesn't want to admit he was wrong. I don't think that makes him scummy. I think this whole numbers discussion, if he flips scum, is when we should analyze what he was trying to achieve with his numbers.
I'm feeling stubborn townie right now though.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Deadline running out, the bouncy wagon hadn't attracted enough(maybe 1?) since a while ago, the1fifi didFaraday wrote:
What?Devotress wrote:Unvote bouncy
Vote the1fifi
Btw I was scum in the last game when I made a post where I pretended I was cobalt as I voted him.exactlywhat my reaction was to playing with cobalt in the last pick your power.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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@hoopla
In your mind (hoopla), is this as good as hitting someone who drew a single number, now that bouncy is the last of his number?RedCoyote wrote:If wevote: bouncy.bouncy, aren't we effectively killing off the 2 group? This might be an added reason to consider this vote.
Not just asking for building the bouncy wagon (though I want that), but also to get an idea what your head is going to be as the game goes on, in regards to simaler situations.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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A few pages back Fate said I was one of the scummy votes on his original wagon, even though earlier in the game he said I was one of the better votes on his wagon. Thought that merited pointing out.
Anyhow, are we waiting more time to get night actions in, or is it safe to throw a vote up on socrates? I have a very hard time believing this was the townie gambit he claims.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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Since elibereth never adressed it, this needs to be reiterated untill he acknowledges it: If you use your govern power on any lynch today, we auto lose, so you can't force town to go with your vote.
Once again, use your power and you lose, assuming you're really town gov.
Fate is pretty much either the town bomb or the scum vig, either option explains his unwillingness to claim early game.
I think I feel most comfortable lynching one of the toper slots, Fate Jack, Stranger. Maybe the1fifi, but i'm feeling like I believe fifi's claim.
Obviously this is because as everyone's allready said, we need to hit the vig.
Rereading socrates day one, he went onto the Fate wagon second, but was mad at people after it hit l-1
He proceded to unvote fate and vote for Pomegranate instead.the way this wagon reached L-1 was horrendus and I don't think the scumtell I voted him for is worth a lynch
thoughts: He went after fate, and ran off the wagon when it became a very likely lynch. This is either him getting early distancing in on a scumbuddy, or him trying to get townie points for not being on the lynch of someone he knew would turn up town.
I've been going back and forth trying to decide which it is, but my gut is making me want to say he was trying to seem townie by not being on the fate wagon once he flipped.
My reasoning for this is he did a very simaler thing later, when he bothered to come in and post how bad this day 1 lynch of fefifofum was going to be, so close to the deadline that there was no stopping the lynch anyway.-
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Devotress Goon
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Devotress Goon
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I grieve for the loss of the poor wine. farewell, we tried to save you.
I really need to examine this game to find what made me so scummy, I'm obviously not the greatest player. Glad I wasn't a lylo loss lynch or anything, I was scared of being that. Would have been had I been higher on the draft I suppose.
I'm linking this game when someone brings up number theory in the next pick your power-
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Devotress Goon
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Well yah, would have hit a scum day 1 on socrates, and would have made whose the vig alot easier to figure out.Faraday wrote:
The funny thins is if we'd followed Hoopla's plan it'd have been a COMPLETELY different and harder game for the scumDevotress wrote: I'm linking this game when someone brings up number theory in the next pick your power
But still, this game did a good job proving that scum are all over the draftboard, knowing what 4 other people are going to pick doesn't put you any average amount higher in the draft.-
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Devotress Goon
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Reading your quicktopic you guys even talked about who you should kill to leave groups alone to be good targets for number lynching. I can't see how you can have participated in that quicktopic and think it's a good idea for town to make heavy use of number analysis.
I'm not arguing you guys didn't have ANY advantage in the draft. Just not a significant enough average placing to warrant lynching people baed on being in the top of the order.
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