DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Total War is bad.
Conventional scenario:
D1-D2, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
1 Mafia night kill
Total war, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
2 Mafia night kills
2 day kills from whomever gets the submarine, which is almost assuredly going to be the SK and someone else
Any additional town-directed nukes identify to the mafia/SK who may or may not have PRs-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Swift Justice wrote:And wait, how is there 2 nightkills from the SK and Mafia? Aren't both phases just skipped, so like Defcon 4 we get troop choices, and we skip straight to Defcon 1 where we can go nuclear?
Please sign your posts. kthx.
Conventional War:
Day 1: Defcon 3: Lynch + SK Night kill
Day 2: Defcon 2: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill
Total War:
Day 1: Defcon 1: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill + Submarine kill (Which may be x2, depending on SK) + other assorted nukings
Day 2: Defcon 1: Lynch + SK Night kill + Mafia Night kill + Submarine kill (Which may be x2, depending on SK) + other assorted nukings
Better to have at least *some* flip info before the nukings start.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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ooba's wrong.
Conventional war, D1-D2, has three non-town-directed kills (2 SK, 1 Mafia). So even if you think that "nukenukeseveryonenukes" is a good plan, we can get to D3 with *at worst* 14 of 19 town before going "omgimgoingtonukescumandbeanhero"...but with two Days of interactions and flips to start with.
Secondly, going "omgimgoingtonukescumandbeanhero" D1 immediately tells the mafia that you're not one of the PRs. Conventional war gives us 2 cop/tracker reports, and maybe 2 rolecop reports if we get that, though that's less likely.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In case it needs to be official:
Confirm: No Total War
Magister Ludi wrote:I'm in favor of total war.
Since it needs to be unanimous, and its not, doesn't really matter now, does it?
Magister Ludi wrote:Going straight to total war gives a ton of players the abilitiy to go with nukes. Not only is this a ton of fun, but it also means that potential hotheads have the ability to annihilate any given player at any time. This means town could die, yes, but it also means that any lurking/apathetic scum expecting to play a normal game will get destroyed.
You seem to be making an assumption that lurkers will be targeted with the nukes, and that the lurkers will be scum. The first is pretty shaky, and the second is worse, unless you believe that there will actually be more lurkers amongst the scum than the town (which I don't).-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Experience has shown me that when you give everyone daykills, the first 3 or so are always done for the lulz (like me nuking Faraday) unrelated to the game.
Besides which, to be a lurker, the game has to have gone on a few days, and I'm pretty goddamn certain that if you got to that point, the hotheads that Ludi is depending on would've already launched their nukes anyways.
Magister Ludi wrote:There are always more lurkers as a percentage of the scum team then the town team. (You don't believe this?)
No. Datapoint: Cuthulhufish. All the lurkers were town. Every single one.
Anyways, what kind of bullshit statistic is this? The question isn't whether lurkers are a higher percentage of the scum team (which is going to be more variant because the sample size is lower), but whether a lurker is more likely to be scum than a non-lurker.
And, the better the playerlist gets, the less likely a lurker is to be scum. And this is a pretty top-class playerlist.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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@Mod:If someone with Fighters uses it on the Terrorist, and the Terrorist does not have the Air Base, will the Fighters player see two deployments?
(The terrorist's free ability is considered a factional ability and will not show. Only the ability they selected in the draft will be revealed. --AGM)Last edited by AlmasterGM on Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:00 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magister Ludi wrote:Datapoint: Dynasty Warriors Mafia. (SPyreX, back me up here)
Just want to make sure, this is the same Dynasty Warriors where you have less posts than C-worl, who you're referring to as the lurker scum?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magister Ludi wrote:Just confirming, scum who generally did not much of anything, lurked in plain site and won the game. Yes, same one. (battle of the one game sample sizes going on here)
So did you lurk that game? If you played in this game like you played in that game, should you be nuked?
Magister Ludi wrote:Not going too deep into this, but if three players are lurking, and one is scum, It is probably beneficial to nuke them all. At worst, two town die and the remaing scum get active as all hell. I would take that deal. And that's only dealing with lurking. (fluff posts etc.)
What if three players are lurking, and none are scum? What if five players are lurking, and one is scum?
Magister Ludi wrote:
I mean, we're going to get there despite your best efforts. If you had the choice, I take it you would want to stay in Defcon 2 forever?
With just a simple analysis, I think this setup would be rather scumsided without nukes. Amongst other things, they provide a great way to get multiple lynches out of a Day. Which is assuming that people can be rational about things. Which is more the crux of the matter. I think people are going to be much better about using their nukes once they've already had reads established, whereas opening this in Total War would surprise me if there were not three nukes launched within the first two game pages.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Defcon 4 Guide
Ignorance of the rules is no excuse. Understand things before you make your selections.
1. You get to choose between being able to nuke/defend from a nuke ("missile silo"), and having a PR ("troops").
2. If you choose "Troops", you get to list which PRs you want in the order that you want them. You don't need to include all the items; it can be as little as one. There's a draft, where you're more likely to get things high on the list than low.If you don't end up with anything on your list, you get a missile silo.
The troop choices are:
Fighter: Rolecop
Espionage: Cop (one faction at a time)
Aircraft Carrier: Roleblocker
Battleship: Doctor
Radar: Tracker (does not track night-kills)
Counterintelligence: Framer/lawyer
Submarine: Anonymous daykill (starting D3)
Eavesdrop: Get PMed 1/6-1/3 of scum QT
Air Base: Immune to night actions
Fallout Shelter: Immune to daykills
Fail Safe: Vengeful
3. Scum get to coordinate their checks. We don't.
4. The SK gets one free pick, outside of the draft.
So, with all that in mind, some advice:
1. Do not choose missile silo. Do not do this.If all you want is a missile silo, choose Troops and list Submarine as your only choice.It's critical that we keep this out of scum hands. We may not be able to stop the SK from getting it, but we can make him use his free pick on it, and we can keep scum from getting this altogether.The more people who do this, the better chance that town gets Submarine instead of scum.You either get a Submarine, which is awesome, or you get a missile silo, which is what you wanted to begin with.
2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base. I'd also advise against going for Submarine -- leave those to the people hopefully following point 1. Fighter, Aircraft Carrier, Espionage, and Battleship are all really good powers that deserve top spots on your list -- at best, you'll get one, at worst you'll make it harder for scum to get them.
3. I'd really advise putting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.
4. WIFOM it up in the thread. Town benefits from a certain spread to the selections, but only if scum don't know what it is.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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EBWOP: 3. I'd really adviseagainstputting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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AurorusVox wrote:Magua wrote:2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base.
Problem is, if scum get their hands on Counter Espionage, then Espionage becomes pretty useless, etc. We could do without a uniformity in this area, really.
Disagree. Counter-espionage requires you to select a specific person and a specific investigation (cop, rolecop, tracker). Scum having it, even guaranteed, does not make Fighters, Espionage, or Radar useless by any stretch of the imagination.
Or, to put it another way, in every single scenario imaginable, I would prefer town to have Espionage and scum to have Counter-espionage than the reverse.
AurorusVox wrote:
Regarding Sub: I say we all take a vow of honour and let RedCoyote get it On a more serious note, has anyone considered explicitly advising town against Subs? It's not like town needs to be secret about who they're nuking. I -KNOW- its a very powerful scum role, and this may sound really silly, but it might be best to let the scum have it. What I mean is, if we KNOW scum have got the sub, then we can eventually confirm who they are by making people launch their nukes; if someone launches and we don't see their name attached to the warhead, we know they're holding the secret daykill powar and they're confirmed scum. It could also be useful for rooting out the SK. Thoughts on this?
Er. Submarine owning player will simply claim to not have a missile silo, because they have some other troops deployment. Like Counter-espionage. =P And, in the meantime, they'll be anonymously daykilling.
No. I'd much rather that town gets this.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Regfan wrote:Magua, can you explain how vengful is suboptimal to pick? The way I'm reading it taking it allows direction of a kill upon death as well as prevents mafia from attaining a free kill if they were to recieve it.
It has two effects:
1) If someone nukes you, you *must* nuke them.
2) If you are killed by the scum (but *not* if you are killed by the SK), you may fire a nuke at anyone.
There's only two situations where it is better than simply having a missile silo:
1) If you are killed by the scum N2. In this case, you will get one nuke off whereas if you had a missile silo you'd get none.
2) If you can make multiple people fire nukes at you.
In all other cases, it's worse than a missile silo, because the missile silo would either give you at least as many nukes, and given you a choice as to when and on whom to use them. It's really the choice that makes missile silos so much better.
#1 is obviously pretty unlikely -- 1/22 chance.
#2 is also very unlikely, and is a bad strategy because there are better alternatives.
In the vast majority of cases, you will get to fire off 0-1 nukes throughout the game, and even if you fire, you will have no choice as to who this nuke is aimed at.
Fail Safe makes a great scum claim, because it makes people not want to nuke you and at the same time excuses you from having to commit to positions by using your ability.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magister Ludi wrote:Hot-heads aren't nessesarily rash
Lulz-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Katsuki wrote:It'd be nice if town had Espeonage, Eavesdrop, Battleship, Sub and Counter. These imo are probably the most useful PRs either in the hands of town or scum (battleship especially is something scum want).
The problem with Counterintelligence is that for town, it's 100% useless, whereas for scum, it's only 75% useless -- that is, town takes a *huge* hit in getting it (loss of a missile silo), whereas it's just really not that good for scum either.
Fail Safe is antitown crap that no town should take.
Fallout Shelter is also antitown crap that no town should take.
Airbase is antitown crap that no town should take..
Everything else is on the range from at-least-decent (Fighter) to incredibly good (Espionage).
PEdit: SDC. Joy. Make you a deal. You can lynch me D1/D2 if you agree that when I flip town, you get lynched in return. I'll even self vote.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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HezLucky wrote:Okay gamma. I will be less boring by nuking you the first chance I get. Be ready.
Having read DEFCON 1 already I disagree with gammagooey #131 -- Hinduragi was scum in that game and nuked his buddy on way to victory.
Nuking is like very intense bussing -- we shuold not be using it to clear people.
OH MAN WE ARE IN DEFCON 4 ... Gonna read Defcon 2.0 tonight then make my decision.
The entire tone of this post screams fake.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magister Ludi wrote:??? Why would you do this? If you are town, why not just generally push for a Death Clan lynch? what is gained from you dying along the way?
I have my reasons, and these reasons are mine.
HezLucky wrote:Magua has also just made my list.
Curious that you responded so quickly. I thought you were off reading DEFCON 2.0.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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HezLucky wrote:Changed my mind. Lazy like that.
But I WILL be reading it before sending in my choice.
You see how this all ties together to make the tone of your post seem even more fake, yes?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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HezLucky wrote:Three words Magua:
NUKES.
DON'T.
LIE.
Curiousity: How old are you?
ScreamingDeathClan wrote:DEAL.
Great. You get lynched D2, and the game will be better off for it.
VOTE: Magua-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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HezLucky wrote:Ah, how cute.
You've caught on that I DON'T KID AROUND WITH NUKES.
The only promise I make is that if I nuke Gamma you'll already be dead for some reason.
...
It's like someone read the "FUCK YEAH AMERICA" bit from DEFCON 2.0 and then made a conscious decision to try to act like that.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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inHimshallibe wrote:hate the herpderp LYNCHTRADES? with Fate.
Why?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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ooba wrote:Magua: Vibe vis-a-vis MetaMafia. There it was trying to figure out things - here, it gives me the vibe of trying to appear town.
Metamafia: Closed game.
Defcon: Open game.
No need to figure out the setup here, because it's open -- just strategy.
And the strategy is pretty simply: go for submarine before nuke, and CI, Failsafe, Fallout Shelter are all worse than having a nuke. We can disagree about Airbase, as I simply don't care that much, but you only have a 3/23 chance of being NKed before D3, but then you also can't be Espionage'd. Jack regretted taking it in DEFCON 2, and I agree.
Screaming Death Clan wrote:Magua wrote:Great. You get lynched D2, and the game will be better off for it.
YOU THINK YOU CAN TAKE DOWN THE SDC?
WE ARE LEGION
I do expect that you honor deals that you made, yes.
People who were all "look if we were in Total War we could be nuking already" make me sad.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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I don't have a read on you. We disagree on some setup strategy (whether Total War was a good idea, whether Airbase should be on town lists) but you haven't really expressed any strong reads one way or the other on anyone.
HezLucky is either scum, or the best reason why going to Total War D1 is a bad idea.
Regfan's being unusually reserved, which is meta-scummy. Same goes for gorilla, though I'm less solid on his meta.
SDC: You're welcome to take Airbase, as far as I care.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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ooba wrote:The reason I ask is because in the earlier exchange it seemed like you automatically assumed I'm town ..
The "you" in my quote is the generic "you"; see also this post addressed to Regfan, or anyplace I talk about taking powers, really.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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ToastyToast wrote:Magua wrote:I don't have a read on you.Wedisagree on some setup strategy (whether Total War was a good idea, whether Airbase should be on town lists) but you haven't really expressed any strong reads one way or the other on anyone.
Im either asking something completely offtopic or considering a possible slip. Whose "We"? Teh scumbuddies?
Yes. It can't possibly be the person who I disagreed with on setup strategy that I was replying to.
You're so smart.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Hez is more likely overcompensating scum trying to do a Fate imitation.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Hinduragi wrote:I also found some Europeans.
Dana
IS
Hez
I notice your scumlist only contains extremely easy targets. Why is that?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Fate raging is making me laugh.
I'm going to revise my list and put Airbase at #1 now.
RC = town, AV = scum-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Screaming Death Clan wrote:Magua's getting my vote again D1.
He wants that 1v1? Fine.
He's either TROLLING, not playing to his WINCON, or SCUM.
So he can die D1, deal.
Magua (American, Airbase) - Lynched Day 1.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Oh, man. Blacklists. Didn't know that this was srs bsns. I'll change my errant ways immediately.
Fate's threats are funnier.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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I didn't get this mental image when reading the posts, so I just assumed. My bad. Won't happen again.
What do you think of RedCoyote and AurorusVox?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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SpyreX wrote:Actually, who all pulled the airbase shenanigans, preferably in order? I have a sense about this.
SDC - "Gimme airbase!"
ooba - "Airbase is on my list"
Sociopath - "I may or may not have Airbase"
Sidetrek for AurorusVox's "Fate wanted Airbase as scum in DEFCON 2, so we should let him have it now" because I can
RedCoyote - "Airbase is on my list"
Magua - "I'm going to put Airbase #1 to piss Fate off"-
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SpyreX wrote:Is that it and 100% accurate?
No, it's entirely misrepresentative of what happened. Luckily for me, there's no way people can look back at the postings and disprove it.
SpyreX wrote:I thought there was more hiding in there playing teehee.
There's a lot of SDC-RedCoyote wrangling, and then RC referencing ooba that drags ooba in.
But I did walk away with a big townread on RedCoyote from his responses, and a big scumread on AurorusVox for his. Sociopath is the only one who I didn't remember as jumping in until I went back and looked.-
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Screaming Death Clan wrote:My list is better, and I'm town so
NYAHNYWAH
Yes. I didn't include all the people who didn't comment on it.
Toog never says he's going to put Airbase on his list. He says he doesn't like your plan. I actually like his response. Reads town.
AurorusVox wrote:Magua, the point was that he didn't want it KNOWN that he wanted Airbase. Also, D2 featured a second scumteam. I can't see why he'd pull this stunt as scum in this game. As SK I can see, but not as Eurotrash.
I think that looking at Fate's old scumgames and expecting that he would play exactly like them as scum this game is not a successful plan.
And, it's not occurred to you that scum might want to publicly say, "I have the Airbase" when they really have some other PR, etc? Really?
Your overall SDC-is-town-because-they-asked-for-Airbase I find incredibly disconcerting.-
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Screaming Death Clan wrote:Magua are we scum?
You're not in my top three choices to lynch, but SDC-scum is certainly a possibility I haven't discounted. You play hyper-aggressive regardless of alignment.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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When did Magna transform into a readable, concise beast?-
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ToastyToast wrote:Please don't turn me into anadjectiveverb. I feel like I'm being used.-
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LadyLambdaDelta wrote:I'm of the opinion that at least one of the people jockeying for the ability to lead town is scum.
Yeah? Which one? Care to be a bit less general? This is about as useful as "thar's scum on that thar wagon"
@Mina:How likely did you think it was that you could come up with a breaking plan for the powers? You had experience with DEFCON 2, but the tone I'm getting from your posts in #241 and #253 is that you put some significant time into it. True/false?-
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AurorusVox wrote:Why pick out LLD? Why not IS/Pooky who have been talking about all the Eurotrash they'll smite without specifics? Selective interrogation?
Because IS/Pooky are having their little therapeutic roleplay session and have already been shelved as useless. LLD is trying to find the scum. But LLD's statement was so generic as to be useless, which is unusual for LLD in my experience. Hence, the question. It's cool. I'm not voting her for it. I'm voting you.
AurorusVox wrote:^Anti-town and blatant role-fishing. If you reveal you have a nuke by filling this form in then scummz be knowing who has PRs and whatnot.
Seriously? The mind boggles.-
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HezLucky wrote:You were baiting me in our previous interaction. That's not at all town-motivated.
Town never baits.
AIN'T THAT RIGHT, FATE? TROLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Also, Mina's town. With Toasty. I'm content to circle-nuke and leave either of the two alive.-
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AurorusVox wrote:Since lack of posting isn't a scumtell to you, what do you make ofMaguaMagister Ludi saying he'll nuke the person with the lowest postcount?-
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AurorusVox wrote:That's two things.
I'm so sad you're scum.-
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danakillsu wrote:vote: HezLucky
Glad to see we've got 4 blatantly pro-town players. It gives me a little faith in the American people.
And who are these four?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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HezLucky wrote:Fine, I won't nuke you.
Jeez.
That's too bad. I've been using your "I'm going to nuke you" posts as indicators as to who the town is.
Vi wrote:3) Nobody has made me come to actively hate them (in this game) yet.
As to your IS vote: I can see voting IS for something that Zhero did, but I don't get the link between Zhero and Bastard Bros.-
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Vi wrote:B4574rD Br05 came under fire and replaced out of a high-pressure game without warning. His replacement did nothing to look better.
Now let's swap that name out for Zhero and see if those two sentences still make sense.
1) Zhero's posts were crap, but Zhero was never under fire. To the best of my knowledge, no one even threatened to nuke him.
2) Town replace out too.
So, no. Not seeing it.
@AurorusVox:Who's scum besides HezLucky?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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AurorusVox wrote:Is everything I'm saying just digging the hole deeper? Am I really acting that scummy?
Do you think the people voting you are town? The tone of your post indicates that you do (that is, its something you are doing wrong, rather than scum trying to mislynch you).-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Gammagooey wrote:@Everyone else- You get a *surprise* after dinner. You may or may not be dissapointed.
I hope it's a pony.
I've always wanted a pony.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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MagnaofIllusion wrote:Now that ooba has claimed to have picked up Airbase
@MagnaofIllusion:Please explain what you mean here.
Other things:
Hinduragi's defense of #665 reads pretty true to me; I can see it coming from town defending town or scum defending town, but either way, it makes me think more strongly of Hez-town.
Hinduragi wrote:
You know what pisses me off? I posted a pretty damning piece on the entire AV wagon and it gets ignored.
Point me at this, because I don't see it. I see you saying that AV isn't playing like AV-scum did in DEFCON 2, and that you have a town read. But I see nothing about the wagon or the people voting AV.
RedCoyote: I'm meh on this. His posts read scummy, but without a real scum motivation on them. The best scum motivation I can see is RC-scum trying to derail AV-scum's wagon...but that's pretty a pretty weak derail if its the intention, and I don't really believe it. Much rather prefer to lynch AV.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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MagnaofIllusion wrote:
I thought it was pretty straightforward. If I was a smart-ass who liked graphics I'd post a pic of some sort of map right here.
1. SDC came into the thread right after DEFCON 3 started saying "What Rat Bastard .... blah blah". What I took from this - he is claiming to not have Airbase given he's throwing a fit in that post.
2. ooba's next post has a pic of a Rat and he says something along the line of "You rang?" I took from this he was taunting Fate / SDC about getting Airbase.
This of course can clearly be WIFOMing everyone about who does or doesn't have Airbase by those two.
Carry on. I had failed to make the connection between the graphic and SDC's post.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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I'm shocked that you're lynchbait in games.
Do you think RC is more likely to be scum than AV?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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ToastyToast wrote:I do. When we were in Dynasty Warriors mafia, RC wrote a very convincing post about myself and other scumspects. People thought he was scum regardless and Vi killed him. Turns out he was a death miller.
In this case, NONE of RC's cases were strong. And now he plans to...lurk out? its poor play
AV, on the other hand, came under suspicion right out of the gate. He tried his best to defend, and, even when it seemed like he was giving up, he came back again.
So when RC writes strong cases, you think he's scum.
And when RC writes weak cases, you think he's scum.
Do you see any cognitive dissonance here?
Did you look to see where he was at, lynchwise, before laying your vote down?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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AV, who's your top three picks for scum?
Who's your top three picks for town?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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My catchup post:
VOTE: AurorusVox
The end.
No, wait, I've got one more:
Magna's #1010 jumps out as me as him trying to force through repetition this idea that Magister *must* nuke Regfan tomorrow because he said he would nuke the lowest post count, and that for Magister to not do this would somehow be incredibly scummy. This strikes me as wrong on every single possible level.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Hez is town.
Toasty is town.
Toogeloo is probtown.
Gorilla is either getting massively railroaded as town, or massively bussed as scum. Regardless, there are scum in the people who are voting him: Lady Lambdadelta, Toogeloo, Magister Ludi, Regfan, MagnaofIllusion
AurorusVox is still scum, and still needs to die.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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LadyLambdaDelta wrote:Magua, did you even give consideration to the Gorilla!SK idea? Or are you totally ignoring that on purpose?
Utterly do not care about finding the SK. Utterly. Do not care.
Revenge of Wei wrote:Given the bolded, I'm assuming you're not going to make an effort to find out who?
Given that AurorusVox is more likely to be scum than all of them, no, I'm not at this point.
Please sign your posts. Thanks.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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