Succession Mafia II: OVER!
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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As your local resident Cop, I cannot allow you to do that. You see, there are the winds of change in the air. A new set of rules run this townn.
I here-by make legal stripping for payment. It is the natural way of... um.....of life.
Also, fritzler, you sped last Sunday. That will be $2200 dollars. Court date in 8 minutes.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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A good point was made that Day one is theultimateflash-point danger zone for the two cult recruiters.
Alberts #75 seems to agree with an earlier post by Yosarian, but I get the subtle vibe he is trying to play the thought of recuriting a hard to lynch player off as something thats so obvious of course he would do it, so naturally he did the opposite. I dont think he did.
I am of the strong opinion both Albert and Kinetic got someone they personally know is solid. Very solid. No wild cards here. They needed to have played with that player and know their style. Is the player respected or not. Most day one lynches on this site seem to be on newer people or a medium player who makes a slight mistep. Older 'veterans' and frequent posters only seem to enter possibility of lynching day 2 or 3. It would make sense to start there.
Flash Thoughts:
(I've read several games before signing up, so I know how a few of the players are viewed here)
Yosarian2: Seems well liked, and well spoken. Good choice
xvart: Solid.
Chronopie: Possible?
Flameaxe: Also a very solid choice
Katsuki: Too volatile
KineticRecruiter
Seraphim: Recruited Day one last game by both team apparently. Don't know if that makes it more or less likely
Magister Ludi:Too new
Albert B. Rampage:Recruiter
bvoigt:Unknown?
populartajo: Good player, but I personally wouldn't go after him.
Porochaz: Possible
Cobblerfone:Too new
popsofctown: Unsure
Dry-fit:Saw him lynched day one several times. No knock on him, but this would turn people off
Fritzler:?
ThAdmiral:?
RaudhrGarm:?
Zdenek
Cecily:Too new
Bunnylover:
DrippingGoofball: Would be interesting pick for ABR since apparently he hates her, so no one would think of this possibility.
Battousai:?
Tanarin:?
Nobody Special:
Herodotus:?
springlullaby:?
Thoughts by people who have stronger interactions with players on this list would be appreciated.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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I will grow wary of people who dismiss this speculation as 'wine in front of me'. It is essential to winning this game. We need to get in the heads of ABR and Kinetic.
What is their play style
What do they value
What do they think makes a good player
What do they think makes an attractive lynchable player
How likely are they to try a gambit
How long did they spend thinking about their choice. Are they thoughtful players?-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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It is definently not a crapshoot if we try and figure out who ABR and Kinetic may of picked. If we la-di-da around and then get down to lynching a semi-soild player who made some little nuance mistake, then yes, it is a crapshoot.
Town lynches scum already particularly low on day one (=22%) and the 'scum' in this game are going to be particularly hard to lynch players. It could be as low as 10% if we played this game multiple times.
We need to figure out more than usual.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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ABR and Kinetic want what the town wants as well, the wiping out of the other players cult. It is only better that they are 'bitter enemies', as a victory over the other would be that much sweeter. Most of what they say about the other will be true, most of what they say about themselves will probably still be false.
(feels like dealing with the devil)
Of note Kinetic: "/confirm pre-in
First game in about a year or so"
To get a general feel of the game, I'm in favor of each player proclaiming who THEY would of picked should they of been a N0 cult recruiter. It will give a general feeling of the make-up of the mind.
Chrono, could you explain why these recruiters would NOT want to pick a very good player. It seems like an optimal choice.
Could eliminate all players within a year of joining. Too much of a wild card.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Interesting, most people think avoiding the ultra high profile players because they are too 'hot' of a recruit is a good idea. If I was a recruiter, I would go straight for Yosarian2. Don't screw around with other people. Does no one think similarly?
I have some interesting set-up speculation/points, but I am pending clarifaction from flay about them. It partially involves double picking... with the tree recruiters not part of the game, a double pick would insta-kill the second pickers faction as they wouldn't be allowed to pick again and they would be done in by the white flag rule.
This is thus a load of nonsence by ABR
'Even in a pool of 25 players, we wouldn't delay our choice to risk being the late end of a doublepicking.'
Also, how do we know the recruiters have QT's and day talk? Was that customary from Succession Mafia 1?
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Game Stuff:
Chronopie's self depreciation is also cult sided, he only needs to live a few days by declaring himself a bad player and he has essentialy won the battle.
Yos assumption about Flameaxe about flaking is silly and a long shot at best.
(Also at zdenek, I am not an alt. We had been playing a game in large normal together, sheesh!)
Seraphim has a almost pathetic enterance into this game, which I expected from someone recruited. No inflamitory remarks. No multiple reads. Just a vote.
Not seeing xvart.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Vote: Yosarian2
Vote is in a bad place. And his reasoning for it is bad on two fronts. One, if xvart is being run up to a lynch today, isn't that exactly the sort of player they would avoid? How come no one mentioned this. Sheeping vote with DGB is bad. Also, reading all pages in this thread is critical, your questions have already been asked and answered.
Question for the other players. Flay explicitly revealed the white flag mechanic at my request.
If the cult recruiters have only recruited once, and they lose if their faction only has one person, why have they not already lost?
Also, Is it even possible to beat the cult? If we wipe out one cult somehow today, the other will always be recruiting even as we lynch their members, always staying one member ahead of an ability we have to stop them.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Thats a list, I just want a single name. You wouldn't have recruited xvart would you?
Also, This is also the best possible day for town to talk and share information, speculation and knowledge. There are only two anti-town players and no one can be accused of buddying. Its the optimal time to converse.-
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Chrono "The probable pick range (In no particular order):
...
xvart..."
DGB "The recruits:
....
xvart
...."
zdenek "Here was my list of most likely recruits:
Anahito Xvart, Teamster"
ooba "xvart\Hero are good picks.
Vote: xvart"
Yos2 "
Anyway, I agree with DGB about xvart. When I was thinking about skilled players who are not high profile, who can still blend in and be relatively unnoticed, the two that came to my mind offhand were xvart and Battousai. So, that seems like a good place to start. Vote:xvart"
sera "Vote: xvart
I find myself in complete agreement with this wagon."
there are more.
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You can see, Yos, people are running up xvart to a lynch expressely BECAUSE he if 'hard to lynch' 'a good player' 'not lynched day one'. It is not over the actions he has taken in this game, (or if people think that, the reasons are very weak and not substantiated), but over the fact that he is an ideal lynch for day one because he is NOT (in the views of many) likely to be lynched day one.
Cult Recruiters are people too. They would reason this out. I have yet to see someone in this thread CLAIM they would have recruited xvart, instead the words are something like 'other people would recruit him because he is so good' so he should be lynched off.
As for sheeping with a vote, I see no reason to. You aren't going to get buddy reactions, there are none. You didn't attempt to generate discussion from what I could see. It would almost be better if we all talked, all with whatever orginal thoughts popped into our heads, and then lynched someone off.
"Why is everyone so determined to protect the cult recruiters from answering questions here?"
I asked this already and they answered about page 4-5. They had some other interactions back there, so it is critical you read that as well as whatever else you may of missed.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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I actually like Batt as the second recruit. I'm think Kinetic went after Batt and ABR after Yos, for what it's worth.
Batt: "Ludi- I did not vote you for being a probable recruit."
This is a logical problem on many levels. This should be one of the primary reasons to vote someone in this game, as the CR had a choice who to pick. No matter how good I am, picking an unknown quantity as their 'all eggs in one baskets' recruit is bad idea. So if a player is not a probable N1 recruit, its is a terrible idea to vote them, no matter what they do. Do you disagree with this?
"I voted you for trying to get town to focus their scumhunting on those who would be recruited"
That's optimal play....? If you know can try and figure out who they recruit, town wins.
"(which is anti-town at best). I backed it up with the fact that you would be a decent choice for a recruit."
I thought you just estbalished I was a bad choice. Why am I a good choice for a recruit then? Remember, they had to choose before they could ever see me play or post. I have no idea how you came to this conclusion.
"My main point was and still is you trying to get town to focus on outguess the players,"
That is critcal. There are only two scum, and they have been handpicked. Plus, I am now identifying exactly who I think they are, and its fits in with what I have seen from the CR's.
"and your recent posts is you trying to get us to outguess the mod (which is at best, active lurking). "
Wrong. Mod's will try and balance this setup.
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This part is another ilogical switch-a-roo by you.
"Post 344- No one cares what would have happened if one of the recruitments failed N0. It didn't happen, and it will have no impact later on"
"Herodotus- if one of the recruiters failed, then they would be dead due to the white flag rule."
Seems like you do care.
HOS: batt-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Flame, The point is the two issues must go hand in hand, being recruitable and presenting anti-town actions. If you aren't really a good hcoice for being recruited, it makes no sense to vote someone, and if you're are doing anti-actions, it also doesn't make sense to do one.
But you and others are acting as if one face of this coin doesn't exist. If it makes no sense (yes this can be turned into circular logic, but some people just aren't optimal choices) to recruit someone, I don't care if they claim scum or lurk or whatever, they're not a good lynch. (insert adjective here) lynching someone who is probably not recruited in this game is just a terrible plan. (that being said, if someone is doing anti-town actions and it is resonable they were recruited, like Yos2 and Batt, they make good lynches)
As for the HOS, I felt like a finger was only 1/5 as strong as I wanted it to be :p.-
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Holy smokes that is not clear at all. First paragraph should read
"Flame, The point is that the following two issues must go hand in hand, being a good recruit target and performing anti-town actions. If a particular player is not a good choice for being recruited, it makes no sense to vote that player, and if a player is not doing anti-town actions, it also doesn't make sense to vote that player (the regular side of mafia)"-
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Battousai "I don't see how Ludi is, when all he is doing is trying to outguess the CR instead of trying to find people who are acting scummy."
think i've explained this before but I'll do it again, trying to predict the CR night zero move is half the battle here on day one. They need to pick someone hard to lynch but also someone that will help lead and define their cult in the subsequent days, and they would be more inclined to pick a powerful person in the beginning because no town roles can interact with them.
As for the second part, that is plainly false. It makes no sense to shoot of with a list of 7-8 scum reads when there are only 2 recruited people in this thread. I have actually detailed and outlined two very likely recruits whose play here does seem to conform to cult play, you, and Yos2.
Your play is similiar in many ways, both are laced with accusations of 'outguessing the CR' (wow, there happens to be a human being who is trying to make the optimal choice to win a game, and taking that into consideration is scummy? No.) and weak votes and reasoning I disagree with on several levels.
Casting a wide net of suspicion is pointless (as it helps town implode when It needs to be razor sharp), and is actually anti-town in and of itself. It also happens to be what you are doing.-
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Is this them?
"My vote is on you because I think your speculations are pointless. Can you understand that I might think there are better way of finding scum? Do you think that I'm wrong?
Btw, I think your Battousai vote is OMGUS as hell."
Well, it's your opinion that speculation is pointless [which it really isn't. I think i've made my position on this clear enough, and people do agree with me]
I do agree with you that voting people doing anti-town actions is the usual probable way of finding scum. I've established that this is critical in conjecture with the first point.
And i'm not voting Batt, so I don't believe you can classify it as OMGUS. Regardless, if someone is doing anti-town actions or proposing logical arguments I find false or incorrect, I will call them out on it no matter where there vote happens to be. If it happens to be on me makes no bearing on whether my argument is correct and logically sound.-
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Yosarian2, how do you think and play when you were confirmed cult in the previous succession mafia? What was your thought process, how did you act, and what are you seeing in Kinetic and ABR play that reflects or doesn't reflect this.
And, would you mind linking me to the last game were you were lynched day one.-
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No, Yos, because you were in the same position as ABR and Kinetic you have a unique position to try and tell us what they might be thinking. Seriously, it would help. I don't know why you think any question is a direct attack on you.
And as for linking your day one lynched game, I think that validates my statement about you not getting lynched and being a good recruit. You cant even remember you were lynched day one (could be several years), so it would be perfect conditions to bea recruit. And I'm not sure exactly why you're bringing up the fact that you may quit/etc, if not to try and get a few sympathetic votes off you. Do you agree?
"Its pretty much the same reason for my RVS vote. I don't like how he tried to take a early control of the game. He tried to make us focus on certain players instead of letting everyone put in their info."
What is wrong with taking control of the game? Which players was I trying to get you to focus on? What info did you want to put in? I think ive let people share their thoughts plenty, and try and get inside the CRs head, try and figure out who would be a good recruit and who has been acting anti-town.-
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Ludi wrote:I also want people to comment on what people would have happend should ABR and Kinetic both picked the same person N1. Would one faction auto-lose?
If they simply repick, it would be fine. Is this most likely course of action?
What if they got two picks? Does anyone think this possible?
I posted this back on page 15 Yos, and you ignored it there (while answering another of my posts). I can only reason that you sit fit to answer Lady's questions now because you have a few votes on you, and don't want to appear unhelpful.
This also fits in with you 'ask questions of CR' that have already been asked and answered. You are just doing generic things you think will make you look town.
Also of note is you ignored my previous post directed towards you. Was that on purpose?-
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I just want to again this series of events surrounds Yos's Questioning of the Cult Recruiters. I hate quotes, but I think it is nesessary for this:
Post Number 259Yos2 wrote:
Plus, hell, maybe he can help us scumhunt for Kintetic's recruit.
Albert, who do you think Kinetic would recruit night zero?
Kinetic, who do you think Albert would recruit night zero?
Flashback:
Post Number 92Ludi wrote:ABR, you have just as much incentive to want to stop Kinetic cult as town does. Who do you think the five strongest players in this game are, and which ones would kinetic possibly pick?
Post Number 112ABR wrote:
I for one went through the posting history of every player I wasn't familiar with. I've documented the promising ones extensively when I was approached with the possibility of being lieutenant, before the game thread was even up.
This makes your plan a waste of time.
For the sake of the agreement we had, I will nominate Fritzler, Chronopie and ThAdmiral for yours.
Post Number 106Kinetic wrote:I'm going to go with:
Fritz
DGB
and either Chronpie or Yos, leaning toward Yos right now
As your [ABR] first recruit. Reasoning after your three.
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Post Number 92Ludi wrote:ABR, you have just as much incentive to want to stop Kinetic cult as town does. Who do you think the five strongest players in this game are, and which ones would kinetic possibly pick?
Post Number 374yos wrote:Of course I read what happened back on page 4. It's kind of insulting that you think I didn't.[Well you didn't]That's not actually the question I was asking,[yes it was]though, and if they had answered the question, I think it would have been a big help to the town.[and they did.]
This shows pretty clearly that Yos isn't reading the game which he said he was, but thats not the biggest problem (though it is a problem). The fact is that he's incorporating emotion into his posts, talk of 'quitting' 'being insulted' and other such things. It appears to me that he is using it to make himself appear to be the 'good-guy' and so no one lynches him.-
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Yos, did you remember saying this about quitting?
"It's unbelievably frustrating. I don't know if I'm getting worse or if everyone else is, but it's to the point where I'm thinking about just quitting mafia for a while after my current games are over. "
Really, I'm not repeating the same 'bs' over and over again. I brought up quite a valid point, in my opinion, about the progression of events where you asked the CR a question they had already answered (and I asked) and I said I had already asked, you denied it, said yours was different, and when I accused you of not reading the game (which It seemed like you hadn't) you get insulted. What am I missing here, really?
And as for 'scumhunting', I think i've done quite well in that regard.-
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Important Point: Lurking here day one will go a long way into surviving into day two for any possible recruits.
The ones i'm most worried about are those players that have low post counts in this game, more posts in other games, high skill overall, and distance between posts.
Chronopie fits this bill perfectly. (Thadmiral and others to a lesser extent)
Strong suspicion should be leveled here. (not to mention his play has been lesser than stellar, and quite self-depricating.)
I think at this point he makes more sense as a recruit then the gambiting Batt (to a degree)-
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There is no turn around.
Stuff that should be ignored from each CR is anything about setup/recruiting abilities/etc.
Stuff that should be examined from each CR is anything about the other CR, as they have just as much desire to off the other one as we do.
This is what I have been looking at.
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And as for commenting on the major wagons, there are two, I repeat, TWO cult recruits alive in the game. That means there are only TWO anti-town people running about. If I believe I have nailed them, why waste time at all commenting on any other people in the game?
I have you for one recruit, I had Batt as the other. Chrono's lurking/anti-town behavior has me worried though, and I think it is now a distinct possibility that he was recruited just as you were.-
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Yos2, no, never. I haven't played with many people in this game even. (I had barely completed my role in a large theme game when sign-ups for this had closed.)
ThaD suddenly popping up from nowhere/lurking to suggest a three man lynch list is weird. (I'm even a little nervous that he was in fact recruited and knew that he wouldn't be mentioned in many lists and thus make it to day 2) Why did it take 30 pages to say this?
I'll repeat, top three candidates for lynch are Yos2, Batt, and Chrono.-
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I thought the point of those three man lists were to lynch the player who wound out on top? If people aren't going to follow that, why did they supply three names in the first place?
I would like to point out twice now Yos2 has ignored questions directly asked of him by me. You can state you don't want to answer them for whatever reason you like, but ignoring them completley only keeps solidifiying my read on you.
As for Chrono's (et al.) 'burden of proof goes on the accuser' statement, I find that slightly suspect in itself.
For one, you're saying that doing nothing should be excusable behavior because it doesn't make a person scum. Granted, but I it isn't a town tell in the slightest. And you should actively be doing things to make yourself appear town, not simply stating you 'aren't scum'.
Confronted with this accusation, Chronopie, instead of trying to establish his pro-town sentiment through a list of actions/read he has done already that show/prove his towni-ness, (or promptly giving those reads), essentialy states that other people should convince him he is scum.
It smells of a defensive mindset, a reactionary mindset.
Maybe he didn't go back into his history because there wan't too much there. There is little there, and what is there isn't stellar. Personal skill degredation, and other actions stick out. He looks like a very probable recruit at this point.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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I don't know why people volunteered lists unless they were willing to lynch the person who came out on top.
I like xvart's case on Chrono, It details whats been wrong with that player-slot. (also, how does xvart only get 6 votes on that survey and have 8 votes on him)
Lets make either a Chrono or Yos2 lynch happen today. Soon. (bankable deadlines)-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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- Location: San Francisco
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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Players I would like to lynch:
Yos2
Chrono
Thad/Batt
People that I will oppose lynching :
xvart
Cobbler
I'm still not very willing to move off Yos2, but at this point in the day if enough people aren't convinced then it probably isn't going to happen. I'm making one last call here.
Chronopie could.
I think waiting until deadline now is a disaster. For one, we've talked about all we can think of, going further into the day serves no purpose (in my opinion), people aren't going to change their reads.
Second, we may need this bankable time on subsequent days.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3258
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- Location: San Francisco
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3258
- Joined: April 7, 2011
- Location: San Francisco
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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We aren't no lynching in this game when lynching is 10 times more important than normal.
Dripping, if you mean Chrono, I fail to see how that is 'lynch-bait', but after 44 pages of play and posting and game theorey traps and previous preconcieved notions of that players play, if after all that you are still 'lynch-bait', you're doing it wrong and probably should be lynched.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3258
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- Location: San Francisco
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3258
- Joined: April 7, 2011
- Location: San Francisco
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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Yos2, I've done 'real scumhunting' (which you keep throwing out there like a meaningless buzz word). I've indentified two very probable people who were recruited based of both actions and potential, and have poked and prodded other people who are also very likely recruited.
I've already laid out a list of reasons for suspecting you. However, when I see nonsencial/throwaway comments ment to accomplish who knows what, I make sure to shoot them down as soon and as readily as possible. You've been doing it several times here on day one, and each time I pull out where you have made a logical mistep you launch into a mini-tirade containing useless emotions, circular logic and more. It continues my suspicion of you.-
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Magister Ludi Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3258
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- Location: San Francisco