Secret Society Mafia - Game Over

[Bogre]

/confirm.

[Bogre]

@Ghostling: Why did you consecutively votehop down your scum-tells? What exactly made your decision change?

VOTE: Babyspice

I agree on the fluffiness and hubbub about spamming note.

[Bogre]

Your superior argumentation convinced me to vote for someone I do not want to see by tomorrow.

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Ok I see. So you actively refuse to scum-hunt. You say you aren't voting because you don't see any compelling wagons.

Yet decide to drop a vote on my while I am calling you scum because "You don't want to see me tomorrow".

Not because I am scum. Because you don't 'like' my play-style. Aka a Policy lynch.[/b]

MoI is right on.

UNVOTE VOTE OTOLIA

Also, I bet Global Warming is Cthulu.

[Bogre]

Okay Lynch All Liars, once was bad enough, twice is to much.

Unvote

Vote: Iceguy

I think it's highly likly that Otalia is scum or at best a dangerous player to leave around even if town.
I think that that the most logical explanation for the post of Sage is that she is scum with Whispersilk.

Yet you unvoted from a wagon that was gaining steam (on a player that looks to you HIGHLY LIKELY to be scum) to vote Sage?

FOS StefanB

[Bogre]

What held your vote?

[Bogre]

That is efford for Iceguy, Ghostlin? Not so good. Found the game, reading ISOs there now.
Bogre: Why bring Lovecraft in this? And has any mod ever made a GreatOldOne in a role?
Sorry short post today, more I hope tomorrow.
Can't say if I will post on Wednesday, because I have little time that day.

Preview: Were have I backpackelt? IceGuy is corherent? Most of his case Has been disproven. Nothink to talk about other players?
Wow interesting post from IceGuy, but sorry not today.

Secret society? CULT OF CTHULU?

Don't you see how this is related?

[Bogre]

The frustratedpart comes from scum thinking you're scum. And now I may be a target in days to come (night or day), although I really should't be.

Scum don't think you're scum. They know who scum are.

Being worried about being a target shows an intense survival instinct. This is more likely due to come from scum, who's primary goal it is to survive. Townies, on the other hand, are more interested in lynching others than being shot, or being lynched themselves.

Whispersilk brings a good point up about sorgster: he voted Ludi for fluff, but essentially hadn't anything else himself?

UNVOTE: VOTE: SAGEAMAGOO

[Bogre]

The frustratedpart comes from scum thinking you're scum. And now I may be a target in days to come (night or day), although I really should't be.

Scum don't think you're scum. They know who scum are.

Being worried about being a target shows an intense survival instinct. This is more likely due to come from scum, who's primary goal it is to survive. Townies, on the other hand, are more interested in lynching others than being shot, or being lynched themselves.

Whispersilk brings a good point up about sorgster: he voted Ludi for fluff, but essentially hadn't anything else himself?

UNVOTE: VOTE: SAGEAMAGOO

This is probably the most intelligent post you've posted all game--although I was surprised to see you were still part of the game, Bogre.

I am a medical student who has 6 tests in 10 days covering 8 weeks of material each. :/

[Bogre]

wait, no, alabaska seems to be agreeing with Bogre that... StefanB is scum... but still has his vote on Baby Spice from 15 pages ago.

And his catchup posts have been crap. He has a town read on GW for his miller claim but also thinks it's slightly suspicious and he has a town read on MoI and uh... that's it, I guess.

-Agreed.

[Bogre]

I don't like the above post very much.

It's not scumhunting, just a bunch of reads that seem wishy-washy. He strays away from solidly stating any of his reads are scum, and gives reasons/gut feelings they're town.

The second point is discussing the wagons. "Now's time for a good case if you want a wagon" is just bad- placidly suggesting other wagons are fine and can be started at the moment, but not SUGGESTING any he'd like beyond the two he's weakly supporting, Iceguy and Otolia.

[Bogre]

Prodge. Will post once my test is done tomorrow.

[Bogre]

I think Jakalope is an easy mislynch. He's contributed about zero to the game, hasn't defended himself, but really, that's not the best reason to lynch him today. I think there are plenty of more opportunistic scum to lynch (StefanB and sorgster being chief, Yoshi and alabaska being ones to watch.) Fonz (taking over sage's spot) shouldn't get a free pass, either.

Out of the current wagons, I dislike them all. Jakalope I think is being lynched because he, like Fonz said, is a VI and easy. Alabaska I'm willing to let rededicate efforts to the game, and so a

VOTE: sorgster

is warranted.

Yoshi's just pinged me as scummy, from one of the way earlier posts. I'll try to find it. His scumhunting feels directed, is the best way I can put it.

StefanB has hit every single large wagon, and I dislike that, a -lot-. However, even though his reads and analysis are shooting all over the place, difficult to read and strange, I am getting a nagging feeling might be inexperienced town, since he's putting a lot of effort in.

[Bogre]

Appeal to Emotion.

Why am I the only vote one sorgster? Rectify.

[Bogre]

UNVOTE

There are more players I find scummy on the Jakalope wagon. In fact, most of the players I find scummy are on it.

This makes me suspicious that this is a bussing of Jak, rather than riding a mislynch.

VOTE: JAK

[Bogre]

VOTE: Sorgster

Still thinking Jak was a bus.

As far as the Max claim, I don't know about a loss of a kill. With 2 kills n1, a vig claiming he shot and wasn't going to anymore, and 1 kill night 2, this seems plausible.

[Bogre]

VOTE: Sorgster

Still thinking Jak was a bus.

As far as the Max claim, I don't know about a loss of a kill. With 2 kills n1, a vig claiming he shot and wasn't going to anymore, and 1 kill night 2, this seems plausible.

Is thinking Jak was a bus the primary reason you've voting sorgster?

No, I was voting sorgster before Jak. I thought Jak was possibly a VI, but when I saw StefanB, Alabaska, sorgster, and Yoshi on his wagon I had the suspicion it was bussing, and so I switched my vote.

[Bogre]

No, I was voting sorgster before Jak. I thought Jak was possibly a VI, but when I saw StefanB, Alabaska, sorgster, and Yoshi on his wagon I had the suspicion it was bussing, and so I switched my vote.

Let's get this straight... you switched to a wagon BECAUSE you thought it was scumdriven?[/quote]

Not scum driven, necessarily, but scum stuffed.

[Bogre]

ITT: Wildmassguessings from some of the people in town.

Bogre: I doubt all

five

people are a scumteam together. There are two teams. Without diving into speculation too deeply about pairings, please list those you find mostly likely to be bussing and who you think are unlikely to be paired with Jak.

Yeah, it'd be very unlikely that they were all on the same team. I never said that they were, though. However, a Jak lynch allows the opposing scum team an easy lynch to push, making them seem like they're scumhunting (which they are, since they want to find the other group) and the likely 2 on Jak's team as latecomers when it seemed the wagon was closing to deadline.

I'll have to look back and search some to scope out pairings; nothing jumped to my mind previously about possible links.

[Bogre]

Not scum driven, necessarily, but scum stuffed.

What's the difference?[/quote]

Scum driven = major proponents, initiators of the wagon are scum.

Scum stuffed- a lot of scum hopping on quietly, maybe tail-ended.

[Bogre]

If a wagon is driven by scum, It would make sense not to vote on it.

If you look, you'll notice I answered that I didn't think it was scum-driven.

[Bogre]

Can someone succinctly clarify the Max/BBMolla deal and if they are counterclaiming each other.

[Bogre]

@Ghostlin, thank you, that cleared it up. I'm willing to lynch Max for the possibility of bus/being a scumblocker, which seems pretty likely given that it seems BBmolla's action wasn't blocked. If we lynch Max, and we find he's town, that then means BBMolla is lying to get a mislynch. We essentially have a counterclaim, looks like.

I still think sorgster is undeniably, horribly, really really scummy. I want him lynched. But there's always tomorrow if we have a CC.

[Bogre]

@StefanB,

Primarily Alabaska and sorgster tail-enders.

[Bogre]

Okay, here are some more points:

>StefanB. If you are claiming that sorgster and I are both latecomers to the Jak wagon, and thus likely bus candidates, you are supposing this scenario: I am trying to FURTHER bus another one of my scum team, in which case I would be down to me left alive in a VERY large game. Pretty big gambit. Secondly, you didn't state this but the other presumed scenario that you would be worried about me (if you are town, which I doubt) is that I was opposite scumteam from Jak and trying to ace an enemy scum. That scenario means that you would have to think I'm scummy for some OTHER reason than being a busser, which you haven't mentioned.

Long story short, I don't think you actually believe I am bussing, and thus you aren't really analyzing, just making up bullshit to sound like you're 1)scumhunting b)contributing c)whatever.

On to sorgster. He has a strong scumread on Otolia, but there is no support. Guess who his vote is on right now? -ME-. Does there seem to be any support for my lynch at the moment ? No. He's saying one thing, doing another. He has a "strong scumread" on Otolia but there is no support, so he's going elsewhere. So he has to have a "strong scumread" on me, presumeably, and also have support for the wagon. BUT he hasn't even really mentioned me beyond his vote. And his previous modus operandi in the game was to tunnel on Otolia? Where's the tunnel on me? Nowhere to be seen. He seems to me so obviously uncommitted to his vote.

[Bogre]

Yes, you stated a fact (Sorgster and I were late on the wagon).

But you also stated a SUPPOSITION. That supposition was that:

Bogre and sorgster were late on the wagon, and thus likely bus candidates.

You're painting me as a potential busser as well, but for that to be true you'd have to believe that I'm a) pulling a HUGE gambit, like I said, or b) are on another scum team. I don't think you thought about that, so that's why I think you're just writing stuff to be writing it.

[Bogre]

I don't much care about Max when I still have my top two, already-established scum reads to worry about.

Assuming one of those reads is Molla, by the vote, and there was a lot of Molla/Max back and forth, why is Max off your radar?

[Bogre]

Yosarian - hypothetically would

you

have sent DX out to make a night kill after Day 2?

(nods) That's a reasonable, actually. That's one reason why a pro-town roleblocker might target their #2 or #3 suspect.

There's still a decent chance Max is a scum roleblocker here, but it seems more plausible to me now that he's telling the truth then it did earlier in the day, so I'm going to

Unvote:Maxous

Vote:sorgster

So you're conceding Max is probscum and also voting a player you've had no real interaction with today, or expressed much direct suspicion of. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot??
Side note, deadline is in about four days. Dry-Fit, sorgster, BB, think about moving your votes to where they will actually make a difference. PV, why on G-d's green earth do you not have your vote out right now? I feel like you're usually more on top of shit than that.

Of the three wagons today, I still most want to see Max lynched, by far.

Two things. First is that unfounded accusation against Yosarian. It's definitely possible to entertain the notion of someone as being a scum role/or power role and switch your vote to someone else entirely.

Second is the tacit coaching to those players to vote for a wagon that matters, I.E. pushing heavily for a lynch on Maxous with the plug for "put your votes where they make a difference" and "I want Max lynched"
.

[Bogre]

VOTE: Fonz

Willing to sheep GW on this one, because ignoring the Max wagon is a big, big thing.

What gambit were you talking about, StefanB?

[Bogre]

Stefan, why should we aim for a specific faction? It won't matter as long as we remove an anti-town member of the faction.

He's actually claiming the opposite of what I'd want to do at this stage- if we can eliminate one faction (the wolves) we eliminate a NK.

[Bogre]

Main suspects so far are Dry-Fit and sorgster. They haven't been really convincing at all and I am at a loss as to why they focus me so much. Scum likelihood is high but so is backseat townies.

I agree with that.

[Bogre]

And as for The Fonz, by your own logic wouldn't that mean you think The Fonz is lying, and therefore scum?

Strongly tempted to join this David wagon. Doesn't look like Otolia wagon is going anywhere again...

This doesn't make sense, and he's only 'strongly tempted' to join the DX wagon. Why are you hesistant to join a wagon? Are you voting currently?

[Bogre]

prodddddge

[Bogre]

sorgster

: My conclusion on him are the same as the Dry-Fit ones but sorgster is the worse of the two if that's any help. Will lynch him anytime.

I'll do another re-read tomorrow with further questions for the players.

How about now?

There are a lot of players 'willing' to lynch sorgster, I'd love it if people put their votes where their mouths are.

[Bogre]

UNVOTE VOTE SORGSTER

[Bogre]

I think he's referring to your open admittance that you voted for Maxous solely because the alternative was your own lynch.

That, in and of itself, is not scummy. If you are town, you know you are town 100% and ANYONE else is a better lynch. If you are scum, well, you obviously don't want to be lynched.

The distinction has to be made that townies should know they might have to die, but still, because you know your own alignment you should always advocate for the opposite lynch.

(Notwithstanding being lynched to solidly confirm others alignments)

[Bogre]

UNVOTE VOTE DX

Yep, deadline.

Claim?

[Bogre]

VOTE: Sorgster

[Bogre]

Yeah, I'd be all for lynching StefanB.

[Bogre]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

Dunno about that either. It's possible, as someone mentioned earlier, that the scum were trying to eliminate members of a secret society. Looking at the kills to try and figure that out:

The kills are cyclical at first look. Night 1 we have a claimed vig shot and one NK. N2 1 kill. N3 two kills again. N4 one kill. Seems like we've either had a lot of saves or overkills, or factions have cyclical shots.

The only clear thing to me at this point is that wolves didn't have a kill n4 or it didn't go through somehow, ignoring rarer mechanics like drivers.

[Bogre]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

My main reason for BBmolla as possible scum is the whole roleblocking thing (yes, I understand the counter-argument). In other words, you are sorta suspecting the wrong thing. BBmolla may be kept alive if scum think they could mislynch him. He's not really on anyones obvtown list--it just depends on how you look at it.

The kills are cyclical at first look. Night 1 we have a claimed vig shot and one NK. N2 1 kill. N3 two kills again. N4 one kill. Seems like we've either had a lot of saves or overkills, or factions have cyclical shots.

What do you mean by cyclical shots?[/quote

Odd night cycles.

[Bogre]

Hello Ghostlin, yes I have been on all lynches, why I have no idea.
2 of them I don't mind.
The third David would probably not mind pushing again (if he did not do anythink all game), I am sorry that he was town, yes, did I know? Of course not.
Iceguy I tunneled on, for my own reasons. I am sorry but I thought he was scum.
That's for the reasons why my votes where on this people.

Bogre: Your case on me is that I unvoted Otalia to vote Sage on day 1 right? (Fun fact, 4 of your post later okay 100 gamepost later you voted Sage yourself) and that my reads were weak day 1 and that I had him as one of my suspects for a potential bus on TheJakalope (the other were Maxous and Sorgster I missed Oversoul) and perhaps that I wanted to kill mafia yesterday (and failed)

You don't have any idea why you were on some of the lynches? At the very /least/, that's an irresponsible use of votes.

My thoughts on you is that you're opportunistic, vote-throwing, and don't have any reads or reasoning to support those vote switches and vote placement. Switching votes isn't scummy. IIRC, you were jumping from a building Otalia wagon before it even really gained steam, and stated only a WEAK reason to switch that vote. That's scummy, because its suggests you were afraid of committing to the wagon, or trying to bail from your scumpartner. Your insistence to be on the rest of the lynches past that part might be you trying to rectify.

[Bogre]

[quote="In post 1449
In 4.10, there's an effective tie (DX 7, DF 6 plus my secret vote) which is broken by Bogre switching off Sorgster. Wraith then leaves Dry-Fit to hammer for the sake of getting a hammer (annoyingly, seconds before I was going to post my big rebuttal to ConSpiracy et al).

So if there's any actual movement to ensure it's DX and not DF who swings, it's Sorgster or Bogre, Bogre in particular looking bad if DF flips mafia.[/quote]

Yeah. I hadn't really looked at DF or DX in depth that day much. Summarize the case on DF? I'll look him over, too. Not worried about looking bad, really.

[Bogre]

Bogre, you just called Stefan scum for 'at best irresponsible use of his vote.' Then in your next post, you admit you broke a tie between two L-2 players without really paying any in-depth attention to either?

My vote wasn't irresponsible; it needed to be used at deadline. I didn't use it as well as I could because I glossed over DF being tied and I didn't take the time to research and tiebreak. I didn't just throw it randomly on lynches for the sake of lynches. StefanB has CHRONICALLY used his vote to further lynches and admitted he had no reason to do so.

[Bogre]

The counter wagons on me have had 2 scum flips so that's good.

And that affects the possibility that you're mafia, how?

[Bogre]

VOTE: StefanB