A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!


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Post Post #599 (isolation #0) » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:39 pm

Post by greenknight »

Checking in.

I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal
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Post Post #614 (isolation #1) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:02 am

Post by greenknight »

In response to questions on this page

- Bandwagoning based on the 5 or so pages I read this morning when I got my replacement PM, in order to move the game forward, is pro-town
- my votes are actually explained in what I posted, i'm voting Minimum because I agreed with MoI (particularly #125) and Feysal because he opened up by attacking Starbuck just for proposing a dubious strategy for the use of Choose. IMO that isn't a scum tell but it's the sort of thing that scum love to jump on.
- I agreed with Lyanna's meta read on MoS in #597, having played in the same game she refers to as source for the read (Good vs Evil). Therefore leaning town on all 3 involved slots (lyanna, tyene, MoS)
- Love you too Mina, unfortunately I'm not a mafia mason tracker vig this game
- Pandora I don't really get your point. It actually does happen to be true that I didn't realise there was a wagon on my slot, but why would that be important?
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Post Post #619 (isolation #2) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:13 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 616, Pandora wrote:GK: I'm saying you would have thought you had a reason to want the 'pro-town' bandwagoning to have a bigger target then you. Since MoI's 125 is also about dubious choosing choices (and admittedly includes the line that threw me off about Minimum in the first place), both your votes seem to be about the same thing. What do you think about the amount of people that jumped on Feysal for his 'scumslip'?


If you mean the multiball "slip", I think that was a bad reason to be voting anyone. I can see why people might think it was a scumtell because a scum in a team of 4 would automatically know it was multiball. However, when I saw that there were 28 players in the game, I immediately assumed it would be multiball just to keep the overall duration of the game down.

The Choice strategy issue is different, there's no potential hidden knowledge involved there. I agree that the correct town play is to use it as a 2nd lynch, but being wrong on a strategy issue is not scummy - it's just being wrong - and I expect better from town Feysal.

In fact, isoing Feysal, he leaves the Starbuck vote there for a while before switching to Snow with another dubious tell - IMO town having trouble settling on scum reads day 1 is reasonably common, and I don't see how it is valid to use the example of a scum in another game who had trouble finding reads for the entire game vs half of day 1. Again this sort of going after easy targets is not what I expect from town Feysal, in the two games I've played with Feysal as town he went aggressively after whom he perceived to be the biggest threat (MoI), with better reasoning.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #3) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:37 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 621, Plessiezarus wrote: Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.


That's simple enough... It's a 28p game which means a lot of inertia in terms of moving wagons to the point of being a serious lynch threat. Since my predecessor wasn't actually voting and catching up will take a while, it's correct play to place initial votes quickly imo.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #4) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:46 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 613, bvoigt wrote:Furthermore, I just noticed that he voted Minimum in his very first post, and has kept that vote there for the entire game, with no explanation AFAIK. @Sala: Why do you think Minimum is scum?

His other 3 scum reads, according to #433, are Shadow, SnowStorm, and Hyperion. So all 4 of his scum reads are popular wagons, and
3 of the 4 are arguably easy mislynches
. Overall, it looks like these reads are mainly "following the crowd" without adding any of his own reasoning.


So... who's a mislynch and why?
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Post Post #650 (isolation #5) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:57 pm

Post by greenknight »

In post 641, Minimum wrote:
So congratulations. Your protown bandwagoning vote ... has just guaranteed we'll be lynched today. (Well, a roleclaim could hypothetically save us, but I'm not dumb enough to softclaim either VT or useful/confirmable PR this early by my reaction.) Because there's no other serious option, and people are slowly trickling in and going. "Well, we're halfway through the day and we need to consolidate. I haven't actually caught up with the thread, but I see a large block of people have parked their votes on Minimum, and sure, they haven't proven that they're town. I know MagnaofIllusion is a brilliant scumhunter who would never lead the town astray, so I'm just going to be protown and sheep him."


... this is just exaggeration. I've GUARANTEED that you will be lynched today? No, if anything, voting you earlier rather than later makes it more likely that alternate viable wagons will form in time by the end of the day if you're town, since people are reacting to your wagon. The "trickle" of other people voting you is so far 1 person - Shinori - and he's voting you for stated reasons that have nothing to do with consolidation or MoI.

Why aren't the other current wagons a serious option? And why do you think that MoI would policy lynch you on d1 for the hell of it?
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Post Post #665 (isolation #6) » Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:21 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 651, Plessiezarus wrote:
In post 628, greenknight wrote:
In post 621, Plessiezarus wrote: Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.


That's simple enough... It's a 28p game which means a lot of inertia in terms of moving wagons to the point of being a serious lynch threat. Since my predecessor wasn't actually voting and catching up will take a while, it's correct play to place initial votes quickly imo.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me. If you think it's hard to move wagons in a big game, adding your vote to the biggest wagon is surely not going to make it easier to pressure new people.


Well, look at what happened since I voted. Pushing the Minimum wagon caused reactions from both heads of the hydra, and also from people defending minimum. This gives us useful content to analyse, and speeds up the process of reaching a consensus on whether the wagon's good or not. So, if we decide the wagon's bad there'll be more time to conside other targets.

And until you've caught up on the thread, how can you be confident that the most popular wagon in the middle of day 1 is also the best wagon?


Voting is better than not voting on d1, imo you should go with the material you have and move later if you find a better target.

Mina's reaction to this vote is more the sort of thing we were expecting to see from a town-Mina. Would have probably been more convinced by a non-edited version of Post 641 though (assuming such a non-edited version actually existed, of course).


I do expect emotional outbursts from Mina. This one feels rather exaggerated with the "guaranteed lynch" stuff though, as I mentioned in my previous post.

Tierce wrote:Mina sounds genuinely frustrated for a wagon that, on her eyes, has reasoning like "you're not obvtowning enough". I've been there enough times (Chrono Trigger Resurrection, Otherworld, late Weather Mafia II) that this feels like something I would post as Town and not as scum in a similar situation, and I have been (rightfully) paranoid about some such townreads.


Sure she's frustrated... but wouldn't she also be frustrated as scum? I'm sure it's very annoying if you happen to draw scum, feel like you are playing a decent game and someone pulls "not obvtown enough" as evidence against you. I do see with your point about paranoia being a typical town reaction when the attacked player feels the reasons for voting are bad, but I don't see why scum could not also make a "you guys all suck" post.
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Post Post #678 (isolation #7) » Sun Aug 26, 2012 12:11 pm

Post by greenknight »

In post 667, Tyene Sand wrote:Furthermore, CES is a stronger scum player than Mina is. I see no reason why he'd leave her so much in the spotlight if they were trying to guarantee their own survival at this stage.


Well, CES was the one that picked up the majority of the votes. But I don't think that's much evidence one way or the other, it could easily just be whomever has time to post.

So, greenknight: why are Minimum scum?


I don't like their interaction with MoI on page 2 - instead of just asking him "why are you choosing yourself" there's a bunch of sarcasm and a joke scum claim which I got bad vibes from. Looked to me as attempting to muddy the waters. I also think there are a couple of question marks with Mina's frustration posts (sympathy play by claiming to be a guaranteed lynch, the odd statement that MoI would try to lynch them regardless of alignments, and concern about not wanting to "look bad.") And no I didn't mean to imply that Mina had given up, just that it was a general vent against her attackers.
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Post Post #740 (isolation #8) » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:02 am

Post by greenknight »

Minimum wrote:What worries me more is that he'd devoted a lot of breath to saying no one should unvote me or treat me as town, when his vote on me was apparently just a bandwagon vote based on our page two posts


I've argued with Tierce about the validity of our respective reads on you, but I don't believe I have ever told anyone not to unvote you.

(and he misrepresented those posts badly, as CES already explained--WTF does "muddying the waters" even
mean
?). Have you actually started catching up with the game, greenknight? Have you read any of our posts in the middle of the game?


I'm mostly caught up at this point. So... first off I'll admit that I actually thought those page 2 posts I don't like (34, 37, 43) were written by CES because I thought they fit his style more from my memories of AFFC, which is why I thought CES had picked up the votes for your hydra. However that doesn't change much. You guys Chose MoI on page 1, in #34 you explain your policy on choosing followed by saying "or just choose MoI" - this phrasing makes it unclear whether MoI was a real or RVS joke vote. #37 you then ask MoI why he voted himself, with an added sarcastic line about the meanies ganging up on him, and #43 you make a joke scum claim. Again, to me this read as muddying the waters, not because jokes are inherently anti-town, but because by posting this stuff instead of "hey I didn't like MoI's reponse because of X" it remains it unclear WHY you are choosing MoI (a vote that stays on for 10 or so pages.) I could potentially see this as a reaction test, but you didn't claim it as such. And there is the oddness MoI pointed out in his post later that if you do think MoI is a good Choice in order to get a town vig as opposed to scum (34), then why question his selfvote.

Who are your suspects right now?


Feysal
Minimum
bvoigt (complaining about Sala going after weaker players, when he's himself done nothing but attack Sala who is also a weak player)
staeg (mainly a gut read atm)

Other popular wagons:

I don't know what to make of shadow, I'd expected him to be more aggressive about calling people out as scum no matter his alignment from the 2 games I've played with him, here he is just taking more of a generally argumentative approach, but I don't see any "this line of argument is scummy" tells atm so he can live for today.

Snow's responses to attacks on him feel natural and townish in the sense of "I'm explaining my style and I'm not changing it just because there's a wagon on me."

Hyperion just reads as someone who had no time to play the game and, oddly enough, although Shinori came in and voted exactly the same way as I did, I trust him less for doing it.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #9) » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:23 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 742, Minimum wrote:
Why would MoI's selfchoose have made us explain why we were choosing MoI?


Why would you NOT be transparent about why you were choosing MoI?

greenknight wrote:And there is the oddness MoI pointed out in his post later that if you do think MoI is a good Choice in order to get a town vig as opposed to scum (34), then why question his selfvote.

It was a bogus point then and it still is now. Just look at MoI's answer to our question - how is that related to our Choice?


MoI's answer is irrelevant. The point is, why would you ask the question in the first place when you apparently think he's a good Choice and he agrees with you?


Shinori: Why are you still choosing feysal if you think he's town now?
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Post Post #756 (isolation #10) » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:27 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 755, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:Greenknight. You continue to be incredibly disingenuous and obvious scum. Just so you know.


Your case is idiotic. Just so you know.
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Post Post #784 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:10 pm

Post by greenknight »

In post 769, Plessiezarus wrote:What do you think of Plum's case on BVoigt?


As you might expect since I have bvoigt on my suspect list, I partially agree with it. The core of the argument against bvoigt for me is that his attack on Sala is hypocritical; he accuses Sala of not doing much while he himself isn't doing much, same thing with attacking weak players. Plum also makes a good point about the comments about the Minimum wagon being lazy.

I don't agree with the questions bvoigt asks in his earlier play-by-play catchup being scumtells though, it seems fairly common for players doing this, regardless of alignment, to question any post they don't understand and just move on if the reply isn't suspicious.

And the case on me is just bad. I sheeped MoI on minimum because I found the same posts suspicious that he did. In fact, I said so up front and didn't claim it was a reaction test; what I was explaining to pless was that voting immediately on a scumread would move the wagon -> reaction -> evaluate process of the town as a whole faster than sitting on a null vote.


Minimum 758: Whether you intended to or not, you drew a connection between your own MoI choose vote and the sarcastic comments on page 2 when you said in post 34 "or alternatively, just choose MoI."
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Post Post #812 (isolation #12) » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:23 am

Post by greenknight »

ISOed snow. I think snow admitting he didn't have scumreads when pushed in #328, and not feeling any pressure to form some scumreads in a hurry despite the fact he was picking up heat for it is a town tell. Also, the carelessness exhibited regarding his Benmage vote shows that he's not concerned about his image, another town tell. Snow has been playing a cautious game, and I don't see cautious scum leaving themselves such obvious openings to be attacked on, when it's easy to find posts you can call scumreads on in such a large game.

I think Jal's vote on snow is weak, but don't get the meta argument from Edd concerning the Newbie game either. And the timing of Shinori's move to Snow, just when it looks like the Minimum wagon is stalling and Shinori might become the next lead wagon, is suspicious.
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Post Post #827 (isolation #13) » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:23 am

Post by greenknight »

In post 826, Shadow1psc wrote:God, I can finally link this; http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22064

Read Salamence. Enjoy our free lynch. UNVOTE: VOTE: Salamence


Seriously Shadow? Have you been just trolling around waiting for that game to finish so you could link it and call for a policy lynch? Do you have any actual scum reads?
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Post Post #829 (isolation #14) » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:47 am

Post by greenknight »

Well what's your case then Shadow? That he is scum because _____? I'm not reading much difference between Sala's playstyle in this game and the other one you linked
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Post Post #830 (isolation #15) » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:04 am

Post by greenknight »

In the meantime

vote: Bvoigt


MoI and Snow you should join this wagon.
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Post Post #838 (isolation #16) » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:14 am

Post by greenknight »

@Plum What is confusing about my behaviour? I think minimum is still suspicious but isn't a viable lynch today, and have snow as a townread and bvoigt as scum... MoI and Snow have stated scum reads on bvoigt too.

@Shadow Actually I think I see your point now. Sala did wall a couple of times in the other game, but here it does look like he felt pressured into doing lists to look more townish after your #411 implied you were going to go after him, and your own play makes more sense now since you felt you had a solid meta read to drop... I need to think about this one some more since it interacts with my read on bvoigt.
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Post Post #911 (isolation #17) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:58 am

Post by greenknight »

Phone posting for a few days and my last attempt to post got eaten. Sigh

I don't think snows lack of scum reads for a while is scummy, rather it shows he has a higher threshold for calling a scum read on someone than most. Also think if he was scum he'd fake a scum read or two after being questioned to avoid heat. From non contribution point of view there are clearly worse plAyers. Bvoigt and sala Are better lynches today
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Post Post #1123 (isolation #18) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:00 pm

Post by greenknight »

Prod dodge. Don't want to burden the game with more replacements, Should be more free next week.
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Post Post #1169 (isolation #19) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:02 pm

Post by greenknight »

Re feysal since when does not being able to follow reasoning equal scum? And not following reasoning on an issue is hardly an unrelated reason for vote

Also don't like how he calls mixed town and scum reads and doesn't explain why town reads are invalid... Trying too hard to justify vote IMO

Kortul I would probably shoot minimum If I end up chosen
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #20) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:17 am

Post by greenknight »

Claim: I am snow's mason partner, he can confirm

Sorry about having to do this but I won't have time to get up to speed until weds so best claim now
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:07 am

Post by greenknight »

Character Is Big Walder and I'm only claiming because I don't have time to defend properly.
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #22) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 5:19 am

Post by greenknight »

Not seeing the case against stefan his claim post reads pretty genuine
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #23) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:21 pm

Post by greenknight »

Well stefan's claim is pretty ambiguous, and I can't see a scum tyrion not having a safe claim or claiming such a suspicious name as tyrion for that matter

Do not see what is so scummy about stefan's ISo. Can we please lynch bvoigt
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #24) » Wed Sep 05, 2012 4:55 am

Post by greenknight »

Vote: StefanB


I guess we're stuck with this

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