HunterxHunterxMafia: Yorknew City: Endgame

[Kalimar]

Hi all. This is my first large-themed game. I'm pretty much okay with the basic rules, theory, etc. However, experiencing hydrae is a rather new phenomenon for me. Any tips on reading and playing with them would be appreciated.

I agree that if PimHel had a reason to vote for squared then his Vi vote was pretty much redundant (and wasn't even worth posting), but I don't know that the redundancy is alignment indicative on its own.

I would like to know why Maxous joined the squared wagon, as well as Metal Sonic. There are several other votes without reasoning, but these ones I am interested in because they are on a leading wagon which implies the votes are not random like the others may be. Maxous' comment about his interpretation of PimHel's play preceding his vote without any reasoning for his own vote seemed a little passive. Metal Sonic's 1, 2, 3 post reads a little as someone trying to blend in, which can be a scum behaviour, but it isn't enough for me to base a vote on.

Thenewearth, I would like to know why you think being on a fast-moving wagon would be scummy, and why you aimed that criticism at PimHel and not Metal Sonic who voted squared just before him?

[Kalimar]

@ squared in #77: Yeah, I know what a hydra is, but the wiki doesn't talk much about how to play with them (unless I missed that).

Coincidentally, I can't really see why there was a big deal made over this post - squared said hydrae were like masons, not that they actually were masons. Although I can see why the reaction over the subsequent reply to [hp] leaves was criticised, that isn't the impression I personally took from the post. I may be in a minority on this.

@AK in #135: Thanks for that hydra perspective. I haven't played many games here, but I was reminded of the site by something and decided to come back and play another, seemingly on a whim (rare for me). I'd also agree on you about Remembrance's discussion of roles being unnecessary at this point. There may be a place for it somewhat later in the game, arguably, but day one is surely not it.

I don't like Metal Sonic's #143 - for random votes are very rarely truly random and it is for this reason that suspicions develop following the original event. It seems like he is trying to stifle, rather than encourage, discussion.

I'll be interested to see what reply comes to [hp] leaves' accusation - that is quite an interesting point.

@CF Riot: You think Nibelung is town. Do you have any suspects thus far, and if so, who and why?

[Kalimar]

Ugh, 1 day and already 7 pages popped up, that downed my attention for a while.


I find nacho, vi, hp grass. and 2 quite towny actually! I'll remove my vote

I don't like nibelung. snarky, lack of content(not much to go off on day 1, but still), and iirc he pushed away a question that was posed to him earlier on. also i recall i read something about him giving up his 3 scum reads, he hasn't yet.


VOTE: Nibelung

i am a lazy player

I can find better examples for all of these qualities than Nibelung. Vi seems more snarky, for example, and I only see a bit of snarkiness (or sarcasm really) in Nibelung's squared vote. Nibelung's content seems okay to me so far especially compared against thenewearth or Gammagooey's fluff posts. "iirc he pushed away a question that was posed to him earlier on" is pretty sketchy, and the latter is plain wrong - see #283.

This is a really weak case to me and I didn't much like #143 either.

vote Metal Sonic

Also, just since I haven't commented on it, I don't particularly mind /how/ squared posts, but having just over the quarter of the posts in a 23 (or 29 individuals if you like) person game is a little excessive. Sometimes, less is more. Strangle away.

[Kalimar]

NVM on Pimhel. I can't determine his alignment from his posts. Even the replace out was neutral.

@Remilia, GIF head, thoughts on TNE?

What made you put PimHel on your 'lean town' list in the first place?

[Kalimar]

The manner in which Kalimar attacks MS here bothers me a bit:

I don't see why he needs a cherry picked list of people to compare Nibel to, designed to attack the metrics with which MS is making his point, instead of straight up going and calling the point weak.

I feel like the reasonable response to MS' attack on Nibelung is "this case is weak because [those things aren't scumtells/Nibel isn't really doing them]", which is how I am interpreting what he says in the next sentence, but the aforementioned paragraph just seems designed to pointedly discredit this particular case, as if Kalimar would have given credence to it if only MS would have attacked someone else.

--bork

My seeming focus on Nibelung there was because I thought that Metal Sonic might have been trying to place suspicion on Nibelung through inaccurate elements. When none of his individual points applied to Nibelung, I reacted with that post. The individual points are also not very strong scumtells, but for me that's less of a bother because I don't really think anyone has any strong scumtells on anyone right now - things seem to be in a state of formative limbo at the moment.

I can't say how I'd react if a case from him was made on someone else, since it's hypothetical, but if it was of that quality I'm fairly sure I'd still be right where I am now with my vote.

@Kalimar: My initial thought when Pimhel wrote his replace out post was, "Frustrated townie who can't keep up with the speed of the game, taking himself out before he takes out his frustration on the players" But I decided to reread his iso, realized I made too many assumptions, and went back to null.

Fair enough.

nacho, just to clarify: your point system is ranking the "scumminess" of the player, am I right?

vi still seems town to me, unless proven scum

nacho is definitely town; if i havent said that alreadys


P-edit: thanks remilia for the defense, imo kalimar's method of attacking may be part of his play style, so i think i consider that a null read at the moment, but if he acts up more maybe we can consider him for nacho's point system


P-P-edit ehh nothing much here

What defense? Also, why don't you consider me for your own 'point system' (or however you scumhunt) instead of piggy-backing on someone else's?

[Kalimar]

My point system is not public; unlike nacho's

I'm not sure why you had to mention Nacho's list in the first place, especially over your own personal scumread list.

[Kalimar]

Gamma, is there anything more to your Sajin case than what amounts to information over analysis? How strong is your read?

Nibelung, what about squared-f's analysis of Gamma's play in another game in 418 did you like in particular?

[Kalimar]

I have slight pause over Syryana and Oversoul's fairly lengthy town lists. Perhaps it's because I only have tentative reads at best at this point.

I like the stream-of-conscious nature of Syryana's catch up posts but I'll need to see if the reads match the commentary later.

With Oversoul I'm not really seeing why he thinks Vi, Squared, Hp and 'probably Nibelung' are town based purely on the above commentary (#475) alone. Also not sure why Sajin didn't make the list when he said "255, I think Sajin might be town for his response to Buldermar. It has the knee jerk reaction that I find to be town.". Elaborations would be welcome.

I don't seem to understand what thenewearth is saying in the last couple of pages. I don't really get the suspicion on CarbonFiber for lurking and fence-sitting. It seems arbitrary. One of his few posts (ISO 2) does take a stance on PimHel. ISO 4 says they were busy so they may not be lurking as they may not even be here. It doesn't seem as though he is genuinely scumhunting right now.

On Nibelung, I'm ok with the response on Gamma. I think a check on town-games would have been good to check that it isn't a playstyle thing. Not sure you or squared-f did this.

I sort of see the similarities. In that game he doesn't do any scumhunting or anything like it for practically the whole game. I do get more of a proactive vibe in the couple of town games I checked. He seems a bit more direct/purposeful as town too. I'm a little hesitant though because I skimmed those games with the ISO tool which can be out of context.

@kali- I thought I brought this up already but I guess I actually only bugged magua about it. I think the scummiest thing Sajin's done so far is the start of his iso #1 with the votecount commentary. Asking for 'more critical eyes on the game' because people weren't paying attention to votecounts is scolding and advising the other players without actually interacting with them in any meaningful way, and talking about the game like an outside commentator like that is absolutely more likely to come from scum that already knows the big puzzle of the game (the scumteam) and is looking in from the outside. The read isn't RIDICULOUSLY strong but that scumtell was one of the biggest scumtells I used to catch people back when i played chatroom mafia and its pretty damn accurate, and its definitely the scummiest thing in the game so far.

I'd also like to know if people have any experience with this scumtell (I don't) and how valid it might or might not be.

[Kalimar]

Although I should probably vote Gammagooey because Vi said so.. hmm.. VOTE: Gammagooey

I wish I had a double vote

Also to whoever asked why Sajin wasn't listed as a town read - I forgot him. But yes I do think Sajin is town.

I asked that.
Could you elaborate on your Vi, squared, [hp] leaves and Nibelung town reads as I also asked in that same post?

Lastly, after iso-ing CF Riot, he displays mild fluff tendencies but I cannot confirm alignment yet. Requesting someone else's reads on him.

also maxous is horrible he is up on the scum list(no worse than me, but hey scapegoat!)

Two wrongs don't make a right and 'hey scapegoat' opens a tin of WIFOM that I'd rather not get into.

Who do you suspect right now and why?

[Kalimar]

Hey Kalimar, you are asking for a lot of peoples reads on various people without posting a while lot of your own. I think it is reasonable that if you are expecting others to provide reads, to provide some of your own reads.

According to your 599 you say you only have tentative reads at this point, even if your not sure, lets see a bit more of your thought process.

(Will be offline for mothers day most likely)

CF Riot and Metal Sonic =/= "a lot of people". Unless you're considering asking people to elaborate their reads within that parameter.

But, sure, I think commenting on a couple of the more contentious people would help people know where I stand.

Metal Sonic

Metal Sonic is not giving much coherent content to the game. He is throwing WIFOM on his gameplay by criticising others for things he is doing (e.g. fluff posting, lack of content). His argument on Nibelung was weak at best and a framing attempt at worst. The notion that he wants the action to come to him rather than him making the action himself is, at the very least, not helpful to town. If everyone took that approach we'd be stagnant. There are a couple of mitigating factors. He called me a null read rather than buddying or OMGUSing me after my attack - I think scum-Sonic could do either of these so I see this as a positive. The comment at the end of #597 seems legit although comes heaped with another spoonful of WIFOM.

Sajin

The case on him seems to be based on information over analysis and his 'external-seeming' commentary over the vote in ISO 1. There's a kind of ethereal and slightly disconnected vibe about him. Not my top choice for a vote, but he's firmly in neutral ground right now. I think seeing what Sajin does in the fullness of time will help me lean either way on him i.e. I'll be interested to see what he does with this post as a starter.

Gammagooey

I've been warming up to a Gammagooey vote for a while. I think his town game is more purposeful and direct based on the couple I've read. The idea that he'll become more pro-town eventually (noted by Nacho in #624) was also made in a scumgame - see ISO 2 of this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4266114. It seemingly didn't happen there as he was shot by a vigilante on night two. And it hasn't happened here either thus far. What holds me back is that there is pretty much no resistance to the lynch. Some people are softly commenting on why they're going elsewhere, but there's no real direct opposition. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Oversoul/FSnake

I am concerned that Oversoul had clearly read my post and question but chosen not to answer the part that asked him to elaborate his reads. I don't see the rationale for a lot of them.

Remembrance

His play is more like Tigger than Hobbes right now. My reads keep fluctuating based on the most recent thing I read from him. I didn't like how he had to qualify his last vote by saying he'd vote elsewhere if TNE didn't have the time to respond but I understood his rationale given later in a kind of Remembrance-style way. The flavour speculation earlier was so out there that I thought he was townie. But then he posted that "I'd like to give my reasons before never talking about the spec set up again though." which seemed a bit like backing off too easily - clearly he thought there was a good reason to setup spec and he dropped it after AK simply asked him why he was doing the speculation. And yet he's not blending in at all - particularly with the way he pressed TNE and that is a bit more townie for me. So, I'm ending on the town side of the fence for now.

Thenewearth

See #599. The fact he popped up four minutes after Rem's vote on him and misrepresented him at least twice in their exchange also bugs me. Maybe it's coincidental timing, but to me it serves as further evidence to the notion that he is being reactive and not proactive. I lean scum on him.

That's all for now. There are a few people I'm taking a 'wait and see' approach on, a few people I need to look into more, and I don't really want to go into my stronger town reads. It's the type of information that directs kills at this point.

Thenewearth reads as more actively scummy than MS right now (though MS is still on my radar).

Unvote
Vote thenewearth

[Kalimar]

What holds me back

[from voting Gammagooey]

is that there is pretty much no resistance to the lynch. Some people are softly commenting on why they're going elsewhere, but there's no real direct opposition. I'm not sure what to make of that.

All these people voting Metal Sonic and thenewearth without any reason NOT to vote Gammagooey aren't "resistance"? Come

on

now.

You seem to discredit the fact that there is a good case against them entirely as well as Gamma - as though any person who receives multiple votes is automatically a counterwagon made on bogus reasons. There are five scum. Are you implying that MS and TNE are both town?

You seem

certain

that Gammagooey is scum. You have lots of meta-experience with him. I am not and do not.

[Kalimar]

@Oversoul - thanks for posting your rationale. I wanted to see that you hadn't made up the townreads on the fly and weren't question dodging. I agree that some of the hydra heads are laying quite low right now and I'd like to hear more from them, particularly on the leading wagons.

I want to know thoughtprocess because my best reads come from associative tells. Yes I was reading Kalimar's posts and they were mostly questions based on other reads. Kalimar has since answered because I am sure even he realized that he did not really have many opinions in the thread. I was attributing it to Kalimar's stated lack of experience in large theme games. Maxous, have you read Kalimar's posts pre my comment? Additionally, why are you asking me why I made this comment when you make extremely similar ones such as the following quote:

This isn't really accurate. I've given my interpretation on a few events - do these not count as opinions?

Maxous' post isn't that similar - you asking me for reads when I ask "a lot of other people" (two other people) for who they think are scum is not equivalent to asking Nacho to elaborate on a particular point on his points list.

I count at least 30 questions in your ISO - and most of your followups to your questions are to ask more questions. I have slightly under half that with a similar post count. I don't see that you've actually gone anywhere with a lot of them. If you have, you haven't shown many of your findings to the thread. A couple of your posts are you going into debt-collector mode asking why people haven't answered your questions - but when you don't actually give anything back to the thread I don't see why they should.

Are you actually going to comment on my 'thought process' at all?

[Kalimar]

@Sajin - I will agree that I didn't post that many direct -reads- but I have given several -opinions- which are admittedly tempered in absolute number by my fairly low post count. But the idea that I was heckling loads of other people for their scum-reads and not giving any of my own was false - I was pretty clear on my view on Metal Sonic. I thought you were going somewhere asking me to post my reads - the fact you have no opinion whatsoever on them and my 'thought process' you wanted to see is a bit weird. I'll look forward to your reply to the rest of the post and Remembrance's question at that.

@Gamma - What do you think about the elephant in the room (being at L-2 and the likely lynch of today)?

[Kalimar]

I really don't see how RS is confirmed town at all. We don't know Oversoul definitely targeted RS (I admit it is highly likely), and isn't it the case that only one of the four scum members needs to submit kill actions?

@ToastyToast - In #362 Gamma states that he finds you to be town as you act similarly to the 'squillion' of games you two have played together. Could you please elaborate on your meta-experience with Gamma and how many games you two have played together?

@Rem: Why do you suspect Syryana?

[Kalimar]

His reads mostly and the way he decided to set up shop. He is back from V/LA but he left as a null-scum for me and that has been reaffirmed with the flip.

If you meta people Kalimar, you might want to meta him. If that's your bag. It will give you an idea of what to expect from him.

Only found two games in which they've played together based on their wiki links. Trying to find out if there are any more because two games doesn't seem like a 'squillion' to me. Trying to work something out.

[Kalimar]

@895: ? Can you reword that?

It'll be easier if TT just replies, I think. You'll see where I'm going with this soon enough.

[Kalimar]

Alright, not sure if TT missed my question earlier, but it doesn't really matter.

I suspect TT for a few reasons.

- The way he hopped on the squared wagon (#99). The WIFOM discussion that resulted from that really felt like noise and I didn't see it to be a very strong reason in itself.

- Squared was town and also suspected TT. I think this would be a good reason for TT to want squared out of the picture. This is conjectural as there are other reasons I can think of for squared dying, but it's a possibility.

- His jump off squared's wagon seemed clunky. I want to note the way this is phrased: "i still think ^2 is scum, but there are better things to push.". It feels to me as though 'better things to push' = 'squared isn't being lynched so I need to try something else'.

- He had no major opinion on either of the main wagons (#805) despite admitting Gamma wasn't playing how he was used to in #686 and stayed very noncommittal to the whole thing.

- Gamma in #362 (before his wagon was very large) randomly named TT as a townie based on meta. He implies he feels like he's played a 'schmillion games' with TT but I couldn't find many at all. I think this was exaggerated for effect - the way he ended the sentence: "but i dont think he actually has a single vote on him now" makes it feel like he was trying to keep TT off the table.

- He skated on the sidelines yesterday and didn't really do much scumhunting at all - ties in with lack of opinion on main wagons other than squared.

- #834's 'some1 vig this please' at MS felt dodgy.

vote ToastyToast

As a postscript, I suspected MS on Day One but with some mitigating factors. I find it hard to believe that scum-Sonic would be so seemingly carefree with his vote. He declared intent to hammer before Gamma was even at L-1, for example. On a side note, I find the way he's changed his typing style today is mildly amusing if a little curious. But if TT is scum MS is likely not. So there it is.

[Kalimar]

Having said all that... FourTrouble - if you suspect TT, why didn't you vote him before now at all?

[Kalimar]

@ Dry-fit: I'd missed the suiciding part of Oversoul's role when I made that post (I've never seen the mechanic before) and thought people were clearing RS for being potentially roleblocked at all. Disregard that part of my post.

I agree that MS's #913 is potentially scummy due to the style of language used but I'm finding almost everything he says scummy-sounding in the way it's delivered and I think he might be trolling a bit. His posting style has changed to some kind of indifferent to some kind of over the top, like he's changed character costumes or something. He didn't use any of the hyperbolic language yesterday, as far as I remember. Going on actions, though, I doubt he would be so free and easy about hammering Gamma like that.

-

@ TT: I know - that's why I said I wasn't sure if you'd seen it or not. Have a nice trip.

-

I have a null read on AngstyMatters at the moment. AM and TT both being scum would require them to be the only ones left on the MS wagon at the end of the day, so I would find that unlikely. Although they haven't mentioned each other much all game, going by a skim of the ISOs, so it might be worth asking:

@AngstyMatters: What is your read on ToastyToast?
@ToastyToast: What is your read on AngstyMatters?

[Kalimar]

@Nachomamma: on Sajin: Do you think ISO #8 and 9's Sajin commentary from Gamma was a bluff, then? It seems quite self-defeating to try and deflect attention onto another scum member like that at that early point of the game. It'd be early enough in the game to try something like that and distance from it - but it seems quite unambitious. In the Mafia in La La Land game his initial scumbuddy vote at the start was given a flimsy reason, was hopped off fairly fast and wasn't pushed anywhere near as much as the Sajin one was.

Which reminds me...

@Sajin: Other than AM and MS who you've already mentioned, what do your associative tells tell you about other players in regards to Gamma?

On TT - I found a game where Gamma was scum and he was town (DEFCON Mafia 3) and Gamma seemed to be under TT's radar until around day three. Gamma gave him a null read in one of those long reads lists as opposed to the random townread here. In that context I can kind of see why TT-town might have let Gamma under his radar again. I still find it odd that with the meta experience there wasn't more commentary on the meta case from TT but going by that game it isn't impossible it just wasn't on his radar. Still need to read some more.

Nacho's CF Riot points have piqued my interest. His ISO is pretty bare as well. I would like to see more content from him.

Also, just to note, the deadline is shorter than day one - though no major rush yet. I think it'd be good for the non-voters to put their votes down soon though so we can begin to get some direction to the day.

PS. Somewhat unrelated, but is Vi a male or a female? I'd assumed the latter but some people have said 'he' or 'him' so yeah.

[Kalimar]

Toasty's scum-reads are not changing with the new information provided as the game goes on. Whilst there is consistency in the scum-reads at least, the scumtells aren't really compelling. I'd say the RS scumread is probably the worst culprit, as lurking is a null-tell on its own and his responses to Nacho shows he hadn't considered the Oversoul flip in his revised read at all.

The dual scum-read on Sajin and MS isn't great, either, because that would mean Gamma bussed right from the outset -and- distanced from MS, which is even less ambitious than just trying to deflect people onto Sajin.

[hp] leaves townread is ??? as well.

Also, his whole play today has been to answer questions which does not indicate proactive play.

----

On TT's #1027:
We don't know for sure that squared was killed by scum, but it is rather likely given the Oversoul death. Considering relatively high-probability events in analyses is not WIFOM. Basing a lynch solely on it could be.

Given that squared had dropped a big wagon from him, and that squared-f's meta-case catalysed the Gamma lynch, I'd say he looked pretty Townie in general, so the idea that he was otherwise doesn't make sense to me.

I'm pretty doubtful that a frame kill would be top on the agenda on night one of a large game like this, too. You claim to be against WIFOM but this seems to be an explanation you'd be happy to go with - you can't have it both ways.

----

@Syryana - The segment where you were revising your read on Nibelung was good. I liked that bit. I don't go with the Nacho case, though. He's been proactive despite the points system and his interactions with Gamma where Gamma is trying to deflect votes onto Sajin doesn't read as scum on scum to me.

[Kalimar]

@TT: You said:

"Remilia Scarlet (I think her response to pressure yesterday was townish, but today they have gone lurk-mode. And on a hydra, too.")

and still left him in the scum pile - I don't see how I'm meant to infer that your read on him 'weakened significantly' from that.

Re: '

There is nothing that suggests "Gamma wouldn't bus one buddy and distance from another"

' - On day one, I don't see this being smart play, particularly when he only implicated Sajin, MS and TNE. I could see a bus/distance on one of the three, but no more. Unless Gamma has a history for this type of play I don't see two of the above trio being on the scum team together barring solid evidence. If he does, I would actually like to hear about it. Do you actually think a Sajin/MS scum-team is still likely?

Re: Night possibilities: We know there are mafia. We know there is (well, was) a suiciding role in this game. Other possibilities are contingent on roles we don't know exist or not. I don't have percentages, but the simplest answer is often the most likely. If later information contradicts this, it will be taken into account. (Note: I myself said Oversoul did not definitely suicide-block RS. But it is likely and definitely should be at least considered in reads which I think you should have done.)

-----

@ Syryana: See page 15 and 16 for Gamma/Nacho interactions. #375 and 376 particularly. I could be wrong, but I don't think Gamma would bother waffling away at another scum partner like that to try and shift their vote.

I find proactive people to be more likely to be town because Town is motivated to find scum. Scum is obviously not. If the town are not proactive, scum can hide in amongst them far more easily (the apathy strike is particularly bad for town). It does have to be relevant to scumhunting, though, else it's just a more advanced form of active lurking. There is a meta component to it, but I don't have experiential meta with anyone here so as a general measure it's one thing I do look for.

-----

@ CF Riot: Why the TT vote and why so confident about it?

-----

@ implosion: Did you ever read up on Nacho based on your gut read as per #931 and what do you make of Syryana's case on him? Is Magua still a suspect - what do you make of his recent posts?

-----

@AM: Given MS's troll-tastic responses today, I don't think he's ever going to be that engaged in the way you expect. He just gave a 'probtown' read on a dead player. One thing you might think about, perhaps... How would town-Sonic and scum-Sonic act differently based on what you know of him so far?

[Kalimar]

@Syryana #1166: You're right; Gamma was initially addressing why Nacho thought he was invisible to him, more than trying to shift his vote, per se, although there was an indirect suggestion to get the vote off.

The rest of your passage could apply to anyone in that situation, I think, since Gamma was giving pretty much everyone good reasons to keep their vote on him. But why would Nacho as scum want to proactively establish a connection like that in the first place? I also don't see how Gamma potentially underplaying Nacho's role in the wagon would actually be a bad thing for Nacho - I think it would be better to try and make Nacho look more Townie for pushing a scum-wagon if he was scum partners with Nacho in that case.

-----

@implosion: Could you answer this please:

Did you ever read up on Nacho based on your gut read as per #931 and what do you make of Syryana's case on him? Is Magua still a suspect - what do you make of his recent posts?

Also, have you done your Toasty ISO yet; I don't think it takes that long.

[Kalimar]

Hey remember when you all said I couldnt be gammas buddy because of D1 relational tells in barkley

I'm not even gonna read that post by gamma

I'm 99% positive that thenewearth scumslipped and I'd like a claim from him before divulging

claiming that someone scumslipped and asking them to claim before explaining the scumslip is loooooool not how life works

Quite.

yeah tne needs to claim

Wait, what?

This is ridiculous

You said it.

Oh well. No point crying over etc. (though how you managed to work in Anxiety and you discussing it and worrying over how to approach a gunsmith guilty not guilty-fake claim is just beyond me). Still want to know why TNE reacted as he did to this business. I suppose you're reading him as town since you unvoted him?

Because I didn't want to claim but you guys made me :/

You shouldn't have.

Why didn't you just deny having the gun? Unless you do have a gun - I suppose you never did explicitly deny it.

I don't see why the bystanders didn't clarify what the scumslip was or the gun status before effectively rolefishing with AM either.

Question to large theme specialists - would it be likely that there would be a Town jailkeeper to go along with the Mafia 50/50 jailkeeper/rolecop?

[Kalimar]

Unvote

Vote: thenewearth

I've looked up what should happen if TNE was roleblocked. It appears he shouldn't have been listed as visiting if he was. This is probably right.

[Kalimar]

In other news:

===========[]?

I support this notion.

[Kalimar]

Hydra slips.

[Kalimar]

Looking back at the day 1 final vote count, it's likely that there's at least one more mafia member on the Gamma wagon and at least one in the off-wagons.

Whilst I need to filter through the off-wagons some more, I've had a look at [hp] leaves' ISO and he is the most dubious person still alive on the Gamma wagon to me so I support that wagon.

Post #782 and #914 are pretty contradictory and there's a paucity of scumhunting on day two. #1088 sounds a bit disingenuous with the tone of 'Well, it seems I've overlooked something huge' especially when he hops onto Remembrance and then back again soon after. It's also theoretically possible that TNE named [hp] as first target so that if TNE died, we'd assume that TNE targetted [hp] and thus we would consider him clear.

vote: [hp] leaves

I'm going to wait and see what Toasty does today, but I thought his attitude near the end of last day and the implosion/CF Riot death-push might have come from town. Though thenewearth had the chance to hammer Toasty yesterday, the window of opportunity wasn't that large and it was before his claim had really sunk. Time will tell, hopefully.

[Kalimar]

Magua, what do you make of CF Riot?

[Kalimar]

I think Syryana's vote was already on [hp] so we're back to L-1 again.

[Kalimar]

options, options.

I want someone to give me a reason why toasty isn't as scummy as he was before. I haven't seen anything from him in particular that makes me want to not vote him since wanting to vote him. I wouldn't be surprised if things exist and I'm just missing them, but etc.

I have a couple.

Every mafia member who has died so far has called/alluded to Toasty town but not for any discernably good reason.
e.g. Gamma in #362, TNE in #572, hp in #1089. I feel at least a couple of these (hp's for sure, given Toast's lynch was looking very likely at the time) were for town-cred.

In Magua's #1126 he brought attention to this poor wagon on Metal Sonic - (4) Metal Sonic: AngstyMatters, ToastyToast, thenewearth, hp [leaves]

We know the latter two of these are members of the mafia. For Toasty to be scum too would mean three mafia members would be on a four-person wagon. Which is unlikely. The fact Magua even brought attention to that wagon makes me not want to vote him at the moment as well.

What Toasty says is a bit dodgy, but so is what MS says and MS is almost certainly town at this point - that four man wagon alone says enough.

[Kalimar]

I also have a feeling that Maxous is not scum, that jump off the wagon would be to blatant a connection IMO

~Mara

Do you mean his jump onto the hp [leaves] wagon yesterday?

[Kalimar]

@AM: There's bus happy and there's bus euphoric. If MS is scum then they've virtually all been bussing him and he them. I can't see it. FWIW, I can see why you have a problem with his posts (I did on day one), but I don't think they'll improve.

@Sajin: From what I've seen scum tend to disperse rather than converge in the votes. Even two voting consecutively like that is probably not that frequent in practice, but veterans here may disagree.

---

Right now I'm stuck between Maxous and Syryana. Neither have really mentioned or interacted much with any of the scumflips so far and I don't feel the scumhunting there.

Maxous has thrown doubt over a few players without following up or pushing a vote on them (AK, Magua, TT), which doesn't feel good. The hp vote post looked dubious as it had no reason attached to it and instead focused on making the above players look bad.

Syryana just feels... restricted in his play, somehow. The TNE vote felt a bit forced. The dropping of the Nacho case without a word doesn't sit well with me given how strongly it seemed to come across. And, other than the intro reads/catchup post and the Nacho case, there's not been a lot to go on. Also, Vi/Remembrance's reads.

My gut feels a Syryana vote more, though:

vote Syryana

[Kalimar]

Syryana just feels... restricted in his play, somehow. The TNE vote felt a bit forced. The dropping of the Nacho case without a word doesn't sit well with me given how strongly it seemed to come across. And, other than the intro reads/catchup post and the Nacho case, there's not been a lot to go on. Also, Vi/Remembrance's reads.

Considering half the playerlist took a shit on me for the Nacho case, why are you surprised? I've also learned to read Nacho a lot better since I made that case; I no longer think he's scum.

Curious how you do not seem to be giving credence to Vi's other reads though

. Thoughts on CF Riot? Why me over Maxous (obviously you said gut, was wondering if there were particular reasons behind the feeling)?

Given Maxous is in my lynchpool and was in Vi's too, that isn't an accurate statement.

Having people disagree with your case isn't a reason to simply stop trying; if the Nacho case wasn't going anywhere you had the opportunity to look for other mafia members in the meantime and in my eyes didn't do so until very recently. Unfortunately, I can see a townie and mafia do this so this particular thing may be a null-tell.

What separates you and Maxous? The Remembrance death probably swung it, truthfully, and part of me wanted to believe that Maxous' initial town-read of me had come from another townie (IIRC he was the first to do so).

I came down to you and Maxous partly through process of elimination. I wanted to vote in the day one off-wagons to begin with - {Dry-fit, Remilia Scarlet, AngstyMatters, ToastyToast, CF Riot, Magua, Maxous}. This is mainly because there should be at least one scum in that group or else they were all bussing at the end of day one. This is a possibility but isn't probable.

I've already said why I don't want to go for Toast and Magua today. AngstyMatters is strongly likely to be town following TNE event. Dry-fit is probably town for having a vote on TNE for all of day one. RS town <- Oversoul.

Since CF Riot has claimed, it's moot, but I felt his 'don't speedlynch plz' comment was a hint that he had information and that even though he'd been coasting his reasoning when posted was plausible. His tone of delivery also sounded genuine in his earlier posts today. I buy his claim since it fits with Kurapika's role abilities as someone else said. It should be verifiable.

Early in the game you said you town-read Maxous - is that still the case?

[Kalimar]

^ Good luck.

@RS #1738: I could see one on, one off. Both on seems less likely than both off to me. Are your main suspects on the end of day one Gamma wagon?

@Maxous #1787: You haven't followed up your suspicions with votes. That's my problem. Even in that group of five you stated, you haven't voted for any of them all game as far as I can see.

Would also like CarbonFiber to give some more substantive content on the next day. Can we expect more activity from you soon?

Would also like a claim from Maxous before anyone hammers.

[Kalimar]

Would also like CarbonFiber to give some more substantive content on the next day. Can we expect more activity from you soon?

how about they provide fucking anything today
i'm actually more in favor of those two getting shot than I am Toasty getting shot; at least we know he'll defend himself and talk with us and give us

something

.

Do you find their absence scummy, their posts, or both/neither?

Before the bodyguard claim I anticipated a short day given the L-1, so 'next day' can now be 'today'.

@Maxous #1787: You haven't followed up your suspicions with votes. That's my problem. Even in that group of five you stated, you haven't voted for any of them all game as far as I can see. .

I can only vote for so many people during a day.

I've hardly been shy about voting people so I don't really get the problem.

Anyway I'm Dalzollene, ability is lead bodyguard which is...a bodyguard.
Night 1 I was on Sajin, the other 2 nights I was on AM.

Why is your vote not placed now then?

---

@CF Riot - have you made your hit selection? Are you able to change your hit selection before the end of the day? If not and you have chosen, we should probably not lynch that person.

[Kalimar]

Maxous claims bodyguard, so with the scum roleblocker gone, while he lives, AngstyMatters lives. If Angsty dies, then Maxous gets lynched. Otherwise, reports, which is, again, *great*.

I still like Maxous as scum but I'm alright with this play until we find the other or something happens. I like Kalimar and Syrana as alternatives. I also ask to have the hammer today regardless of who gets lynched.

unvote

Are you going to reveal who you're putting the hit on or not?

[Kalimar]

I think you're going to put the hit out on me and I have a good reason that you shouldn't.

Do not put the hit on me without consulting me. I have Town-motivated reasons for saying this. That is all I want to say right now.

[Kalimar]

I think you're going to put the hit out on me

This is really, really out of left field for me. Where did that come from?

He's got a second or third top suspicion on me and my experience with vig type roles is that they tend to shoot who they want regardless of general sentiment. They can be unpredictable and I want that reduced in my case for a reason.

Thinking back, TNE's fakeclaimed role was quite plain. Would Maxous also receive such a plain role fakeclaim given the exotic roles we know of so far?

I think Sajin's plan of lynching Toasty and shooting Maxous is better than the reverse as it ensures that AM will not die tonight (unless scum want to do a one to one trade and even then, it may not go through). If we did lynch Maxous then we would want Carbon to use his protect tonight; but AM would be defenceless after that. If we don't then I don't think it's worth Carbon announcing if he'll use his ability tonight or not.

Also, when should we be considering massclaiming?

[Kalimar]

Amethyst Kitty, who do you define as the town leaders of this game? Which of these is scummy and why?

I don't think I'm understanding this angle at all given who's already died.

[Kalimar]

Town-leaders would be Vi, Nacho, AM maayybbbeee Syry and Remillia... Magua looks like he's trying I think, though of these, Magua would most likely be the scum based on the fact that we have pretty fucking strong town reads on the two obvious town leaders and Syry is my strong town read, and Remilia is Mala's strong town read.

the fact that Buldey/Ffery and Remembrance died before Vi did triggers weird vibes because, even both members of the 2 hydra are strong players, they weren't leading the game in the way Vi was and Remembrance could have easily stood as a distraction for later gaming.

what are you not following?

~Mara

I'd say Vi was the singular town leader. Things aren't moving very far or fast right now since Vi's death. I think once the massclaim happens we'll be able to get a bit more decisive.

Squared and Remembrance talked a lot and were townie-seeming - though with Remembrance his day two play was strong rather than his day one play. I don't think I would have voted for either of the two easily. With Vi being an obvious protection target I can see why Vi didn't die for a little while, too. Neither kill is abjectly strange to me although I'd have called a Nacho kill before a Remembrance kill.

Wouldn't call Syryana a town leader at all - if anything I'd say he's one of the most peripheral players. Magua's presence has gradually increased over time, and I think he's probably town but it isn't a strong read. Wouldn't really call him a 'leader' though, as it is right now.

I think this type of paranoia is best served a little later in the game. If we're on a streak of mislynches with certain strongly townie seeming people staying alive beyond their means, then I think it'd be justified, but we're not there yet by any means.

[Kalimar]

@AM: Other than MS who would be a good lynch vote?

Have been fine with my vote where it is, but it isn't really doing anything. I wanted to feel out Syryana more today before pushing it (or not) - but he's been totally absent.

Since the deadline is coming along I will put a vote down on Toast/Maxous tomorrow so we can move on (unless someone is at L-1 already by then) - though I'm still a little conflicted there, unfortunately.

[Kalimar]

Vote: ToastyToast

(I think that's L-2)

[Kalimar]

Vote: Maxous

L-1.

[Kalimar]

Fine with massclaim.

[Kalimar]

Monkey, could you explain what you meant in post #1896 about getting an ability?

[Kalimar]

To keep things moving along, I'll claim now. I'm Neon Nostrade, Vanilla Townie. Apparently I want the Troupe to desist such that I can procure the highest quality body parts for myself. I have a fortune-telling ability but it's 'the middle of the month' so it doesn't work.

I was also the one investigated by Vi. We gained a quicktopic but I was allowed to keep my vote. I thought I'd claim it now so that a) nobody else can claim it later and b) we have one less suspect. This was the reason I didn't want CF Riot to shoot me - I also thought saying it would help people put two and two together after my flip.

Metal Sonic or Magua can go next. I'd like to keep moving to avoid possible lulls.

[Kalimar]

To keep things moving along, I'll claim now. I'm Neon Nostrade, Vanilla Townie. Apparently I want the Troupe to desist such that I can procure the highest quality body parts for myself. I have a fortune-telling ability but it's 'the middle of the month' so it doesn't work.

I was also the one investigated by Vi. We gained a quicktopic but I was allowed to keep my vote. I thought I'd claim it now so that a) nobody else can claim it later and b) we have one less suspect. This was the reason I didn't want CF Riot to shoot me - I also thought saying it would help people put two and two together after my flip.

Metal Sonic or Magua can go next. I'd like to keep moving to avoid possible lulls.

Why didn't you claim this yesterday when people specifically asked you to claim it?

Quote me where anyone asked me to claim anything yesterday.

[Kalimar]

In the QT we mainly talked suspicions. Vi claimed to have left a 'bad breadcrumb' but I'm not sure what it was. I think it might have been Vi's following me onto Toast but I couldn't say for sure.

Vi thought MS, RS, Nacho, Nibelung (now Monkey) and Dry-fit were town. Syryana and CF Riot were just behind hp [leaves] and Maxous on the scumreads (though you knew this already). There were a couple of doubts expressed over Magua but Vi liked the MS wagon commentary. We didn't get to talk much about AK, implosion, Sajin though AK and Sajin did make a 'leaning town' list. Not sure where the Toast read ended up - once hp was revealed to be scum I think it would have tumbled as there was a theory that hp was defending Toasty in a scum on town way.

[Kalimar]

Vi preferred that I have my vote - presumably to help keep Vi's PR status hidden as well as me being investigated. If Vi had later wanted to wrest control of my vote that day Vi had the ability to do so since it was not binding.

As for my vote, I've nothing concrete. Probably not Dry-fit since both TNE and Maxous (who he voted on d1-2) were scum and he hasn't posted much that's gone on my radar. Probably not Sajin given AM got a no-visit on him last night (it's not optimal to no kill at this point - but not impossible) and the Gamma stuff. implosion is on the nullish side of town because of some town oriented posts. Nacho town-read has wavered a tad since his presence has diminished a little over the game but it's still there.

Monkey doesn't feel like scum but the ability thing does concern me a little. I don't think I'll vote him today, though.

Between AK, Syryana and Magua I'm flip-flopping. But for having little to no interaction with any scum so far:

Vote: Syryana

Also, Nacho, could you claim please so we can finish up the massclaim?

[Kalimar]

Vote: AK

[Kalimar]

I stopped caring halfway through my guppy list ]:

What were the results of your other reports?

[Kalimar]

Thanks for the game, hito, and well done to the Town. The Town investigative roles being assigned to strong players definitely helped a lot in reaching a Town victory.

The mafia made quite a lot of slip-ups particularly around fakeclaimed roles, so a part of the 'clean' win was down to that as well. TNE's slip-up led to not only his lynch but hp's lynch as well without quarter. Maxous' fakeclaim drew a lot of attention too (and would only have bought him a couple of days at best), and the more Monkey was questioned the more the holes appeared. Having said that, I'm sure I wouldn't have done any better.

I liked the thought put into the mechanics. I particularly liked the idea of the 'We Are the Spider' pregame ability to help scum maximise its best assets with the best player. Had the mafia team misdirected the first lynch or two, their powers would have been incrementally useful over time; the longer the team remained intact the more information they could obtain to obscure and damage the Town. The flipside of that was that they were vulnerable in the early game, and alas, the Town struck hard.

I didn't do a lot of flavour speculation because I was fairly sure I wasn't the best person to be doing it. This was evidenced in part by thinking there would be a scum doctor of some kind which could have been the Machi character. However, CF Riot (I think...) eventually brought up the idea of using the jailkeep ability defensively which made me doubt it. I hadn't actually realised you could do that, so I learned something new.

On another note, I can see why 'Owl the Jailkeeper' was included as a fakeclaim - for Feitan - but I'm not sure the fakeclaim would have held up that well once pretty much every other role turned out to be more exotic in nature. Hypothetically I think that usage of it could unwittingly have shot the mafia in the foot a bit in the long run considering some of the consternation over Maxous' claim for that reason. Was that intended?

Finally: Monkey, why did you kill me at the end there?