Lord of The Rings Mafia - Game End

[alienBRO]

Hey guys. Gonna try to be good with signing posts and shit, but I apologize in advanced for failure to sign posts and hydraslips.

VOTE: gollum

Agreed.

Also, wagons are fun.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Anyone else feel like dodging waynegg's question before we lynch this scum?

Why is it dodging the question not to interact with RQS when we've moved out of the randomness stage?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Also that character claim means nothing.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Nights give scum a kill, which gives us INFO. Day start is a blind day, where town kills itself. Not town, but scum. Daystart and nightstart are both scum. Nightstart, we get INFO.

This is blatantly false. Town lynches scum day 1 at an above-expected rate if it were random.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I'm buddying his question because I like it very much. I do not think it was random.

What about the question is not random to you?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Did not know. Given scum are still a minority I'm not sure how exacty we lynch them more often RANDOMLY.

Read this.

Unless more than 29% of players are scum, it means that town lynches scum more often than expected statistically on day 1, which implies that scumhunting on day 1 works. A lot of players argue that day 1 is the most important day.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Something is off about this wagon. We shouldn't be this close to a lynch this early on day 1.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I do think Venrob has said some suspicious stuff, but that is one fast wagon. I also think he's just trolling right now (I mean that town post?)

So do you think scum were pushing the wagon? If so, where?

OOOOOOOOHHHHH, RESEARCH NOTES, *Half tackles MonkeyMan out of the way and grabs the notes and reads them*.

Does this mean that you investigated Venrob's meta as well? What conclusions did you draw?

Spiff and DeathNote feel towny.

p.s. When the time comes for a lynch we need to organize a designated Hammer wielder to avoid letting someone come in an hammer in the hopes of getting the treasure.

This sounds all well and good, but it also sets up kill targets for scum who would want to take the ring out of play prematurely. I'd be more interested in letting lynches happen and see who hammers and how. More informative that way.

-PA

[alienBRO]

Why are you assuming that the scum get some benefit to holding onto the ring beyond denying town the investigation?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Where the fuck are you getting that it's one-shot from?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Should have posted this yesterday, but V/LA through Monday

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Robert2424 is playing in line with his scum game from what I can see.

VOTE: Robert2424

VOTE: Spiff

The votes came too fast on me and then Spiff, though I maintain that spiff is scum. I feel safe placing my vote again as huge wagons seem to have died down.

Venrob, if you're so certain Spiff is scum, why wouldn't you feel safe putting down your vote under any circumstances? Your case on him is that he's pushy (never met any pushy players on this board...!) and pursued an RQS question. Not very damning.

[alienBRO]

^Sorry, that was PA posting.

[alienBRO]

Back from V/LA. Going to try to catch up here by tonight.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

No it was those two where I talked about picking up crabs. I don't have crabs irl. And since my question is dead, I may as well let you in on that too. I structure questions that help to reveal alignment using cognitive dissonance (and a few other things that I'll keep to myself). It's a significant part of my early scumhunting. While the question itself has nothing to do with the game, the answers do.

I’d like an elaboration of this. I’m going to assume that this is similar to the “liar tells” you used to catch TD in Xenoblade.

Amrun comes out as town in the Venrob-Amrun exchange. Venrob is an idiot, but I believe his claim and do think there are scum on his wagon. With the way he was acting, its a pretty easy lynch and I could definitely see scum trying to push it.

Does the speed at which the wagon formed inform this analysis?

2) Giving town an advantage with the ring but scum nothing seems unlikely unless the scumteam is power heavy.

Or town is PR-light? There are a lot of ways to balance the game, and trying to figure it out before we’ve started seeing flips is probably not useful.

Andy, will you just save me some time and let Amrun know that you've been known to do that as scum? I really don't want to spend an hour digging through Xenoblade for it, but I will

Or I’ll confirm that this was a point of interest in Xenoblade.

Town act rationally. Scum try to make things complicated and distract town.

Not necessarily true. Town acting irrationally is often times a good way to draw out scum.

Ah but how do we know Ssauron is evil? There's the possibility the good guys are bad in this game. Shouldn't we account for every possibility?

…

Amrun and Toasty are SUPEROBVTOWN.

Case for Amrun, please.

@AlienBro, that is your only reasoning for continuing the bandwagon on me? That is qwite poor.

penguin placed that vote while I was V/LA. Will let her answer that.

Re the claim: Fakeclaims exist…

Townies trying to mind fuck hot hot hot hot hot people is not a good thing, last I checked.

Ugh, this is bad and you should feel bad. If you are seriously voting Wayne for being a hyper-aggressive player than you seriously need to find a better reason.

UNVOTE: for now. Going to calibrate reads with penguin now that I’m caught up.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Robert2424, I've seen your scum game. I got to replace into your scum slot in a Newbie not too long ago, so I have reason to be familiar with it. (Spoiler alert: it didn't end well for scum) I checked out the Micro you completed as scum. Your posting here pre-wagon fit in with your style in both those games of dancing around getting immersed in the game play and being somewhat frivolous. Not sure I buy your claim, especially with your overenthusiastic amusement at the idea of someone eating a shoe. That rang really false to me, like scum buddying in an attempt to be fun and engaged in the thread without commenting on anything important.

waynegg and Amrun going all cage match on each other isn't helping my read of either. Could be scum posturing with scum, really, given the level of debate they've reached.

Venrob, you really think he should claim at L-3? Why? Fishing?

--PA

[alienBRO]

also good point alien; could be 2 scum, distancing- hmm... That's associative tells though, which need to wait for Day 2

Associative tells are always helpful, even before flips. I really don't get why more people don't use associative tells early to try to piece together the narrative of the game.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

PA~have you maybe read my exchange with Andy in Xenogears the day before LyLo?

Would you like to discuss anything from Xenoblade with this head?

-Bro

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

[alienBRO]

You already know what all happened in Xenogears. I'll argue with the wall if I think I think it'll cause someone to mess up, and its very common for people who haven't played with me to read me wrongly.

I'd like to hit scum today. Many of Andy's posts here have had a distinctly different feel here than in that game. They're hedged. They're less jovial. They feel contrived many times in sentence structure. His designated hammer post was the last of his posts that came off similar to Xeno. Right after I called their hand on the hammer thing, they went silent and said they were now going to have less posts and post with one thought. While their posting has slowed, they're definitely speaking with two heads.

Then there's the latest round of red flags which I've already enumerated. I really think they're scum and would like to discuss that with someone, but so far it's fallen on deaf ears. What are your thoughts BRO?

I haven't picked up on that specifically, but I am keeping an eye on him. penguin and I are trying not to subject everyone to hydra dissonance, so we are focusing on going after targets that we mutually agree are scummy.

I have, however, picked up on differences in your play. Specifically, you are being a lot more personal and abrasive here than you were in Xenoblade. Any reason for that?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

He later claimed poison doctor. The fact that this fit with the flavor led me to believe he was innocent, but after reading the "safeclaim" section of various modding guides on the wiki, I am beginning to rethink that opinion.

Wayne, do you see something here?

I think we need to bring liar tells into this.

Ugh still catching up...

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I would like to talk about TwinFlames and their general lack of activity here and in particular RachMarie's almost carbon copy of her Xeno playstyle. I've reached out to both Subliminal and Bro to discuss this slot (though I don't think either of them knew my intentions) and to beat a dead horse that isn't Subliminal now I'm comfortable with them for reasons and have been rebuffed. So I try again. If anyone else would like to take me up that'll be fine as well.

Missed you reaching out to me.

Rach's play is anti-town regardless of alignment. If anything, her scum play I saw in Xenoblade was more pro-town than her town play in HP mafia. I only have experience with NS's scum meta, although I think penguin has mentioned having more experience with him.

I have no clue how to read that slot.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Coulda sworn I'd just posted the link to liespotting... Oh well, here it is

http://liespotting.com/liespotting-basics/words/

You posted it in a place that I technically shouldn't mention >.>

I'm seeing a lack of contraction usage in the post I linked, although it's only a few instances. Once I have time and am not catching up before bed I am going to look through the rest of his posts.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Okay caught up. Not sure where penguin is, but last she checked in she agreed with me that Spiff feels scummy. Don't need to restate the case here, so:

VOTE: Spiff

[alienBRO]

I'd point out that BRO's experience with town-RachMarie was when she was hindered by being half of a siblings pair who'd claimed masons to try to avoid the double hit, which hindered her active towniness IMHO. Having played with her as town, I'd expect her to be quite useful as such.

waynegg, do you have a tow read on Spiff? If so, why?

--PA

[alienBRO]

uh the green orange thing was just an example
What happened was my mom said we were out of ice cream
and I was like "thanks for pointing that out" before checking the freezer
but then I found ice cream
so I was like "oh no you didn't point it out you were wrong"
and my aunt was like "no she still pointed it out"

according to you, my mom was pointing it out because she didn't know she was wrong
however, if she had known we had ice cream, and lied to me, then that would not be pointing it out
Y/N? just to make sure

I'd say your initial use of the phrase 'pointing that out' was wrong because your mother wasn't making a statement designed to call your attention to something you could have immediately observed; it was a fact that you had to take significant action to verify beyond observation from your immediate vantage point.

[alienBRO]

^ Sorry, that was PA. In response to this question,

But is it still pointing out if you KNOW you are wrong?

No, because pointing something out requires that whomever you're pointing the thing out to will know immediately that you are right. You're showing them a self-evident truth.

--PA

[alienBRO]

2 mafia and an sk left.

The effffffffffff????????? The third-party wincon looks like a survivor to me, so either you're being dumb or know something I don't.

PA and I are calibrating reads now, will get back to y'all soon.

[alienBRO]

How do you know the RingScum is an SK?

This seems obtuse. Maybe Wayne is right about Miss hrmmm...

Lets see....we have a psn doc who has claimed that he was psned last night + it seems like it would be super bastardly not to give ring scum a power and a kill would help him greatly + in the other LOTR game I was a third party ring hunting SK + this question is fucking dumb 'cause your own hydra thinks there's an sk. lol

I feel dumb now >:C

-Bro

[alienBRO]

V/LA through Sunday evening

-Bro

[alienBRO]

How about...

VOTE: SUBLIMINAL

...instead.

Lol you just won't give up on that.

I can't get a good read on Subliminal.

vote: Subliminal

Well, this is godawful.

Sorry, we haven't had time to touch base in our QT since DeathNote picked up. We were still looking at where scum was likely to have been on MonkeyMan576.

DeathNote, care to comment on the aboutface?

--PA

[alienBRO]

"I can't get a good read on Subliminal"

Wouldn't the opposite of that be...

"I'm getting a "bad" read on Subliminal"? That's how I took it.

Nope, it's like saying you can't get a good fix on something. It doesn't tell you anything about its location except that it's indeterminate. And people don't usually use 'good' and 'bad' to describe their scum/town reads.

--PA

[alienBRO]

Toast, funny you should ask that... I unvoted DN but didn't want him to know I decided he was town until he answered, but I let the cat out of the bag anyway. Pretty clearly explained what about DN's interaction with the monkey wagon I found town, following "specifically." Amazing how that works, isn't it?

Finally got a chance to re-read Monkey wagon.

Scummiest votes on the wagon: Who, Twin Flames, Gollum

Scummiest person off the wagon: Toast

Today, I am inclined to go for Gollum or Toast.

BRO and I concur on Who and Twin Flames, actually. Their votes on the MonkeyMan576 wagon:

VOTE: monkey dude

Thats L-1 can we get a hammer in the next couple of hours?

This is looking very much like a NL situation which is bad juju on D 1 especially...


---Rach

But then if they thought the lynch might not go, why not lurk it out? It's a nice place for town cred, if they thought losing MonkeyMan576 was inevitable, but time is also scum's friend. I think both hydra heads are savvy enough to get on the bus though.

Really?

@Spaceman, I hide the info from Subliminal herself.

is enough to convince you that he had reasons and a reason to hide them?

Plus, you seemed to be saying that you already thought that he had reasons and wanted him to reveal them.

But, as scummy as you are
VOTE: Monkeyman
Monkeyman has been just terrible recently and is more deserving of my vote.

This is a generic 'he's terrible' reason where he still wants to hold onto his other supposed scum reads. If scum managed to get on the MonkeyMan576 wagon, he's my first choice.

Then here:

I think that based on the refusing to give a reason, DeathNote is more likely a VI than scum (Though he could be a scum VI). There is no reason for scum to play like that, so it's probably just bad play in general which is not indicative of alignment. At least, that covers the refusing to give a reason for his own attacks part. Him thinking he gets immunity from suspicion because he left on the other hand, is scummy.

Intent to hammer if DN doesn't claim.

He volunteers to hammer someone who he thinks might be a VI. Sure, we have nailed one scum and aren't in dire straits, but if Venrob is telling the truth, he's going to die tonight, and with a poisoner then on the loose, we could be looking at two deaths/night from here one out. Which would give us 10 people at the start of Day Three and 7 at the start of Day Four. That worst-case scenario gives us three more lynches to nail a scum. Not a lot of wiggle room for lynching VIs.

--PA

[alienBRO]

WALLLLL POSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT.

According to DN, you can only point something out if it is true or you believe it to be true. If you know that it is false, then it is lying, not pointing out. He said that Toasty could point him out as scum. Not accuse. Not say. Point him out. DN made a subconscious word-choice slip.

lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll. First wording post that hasn’t made me, as a linguistic, want to verbally eviscerate the person saying it.

Admitted gives the connotation that DN already knew Venrob was poisoned before Vennie said anything about it. An uninformed word choice would be more along the lines of "told us he was poisoned".

This one is less good. One can admit something to someone who is not already aware of that thing.

I think that based on the refusing to give a reason, DeathNote is more likely a VI than scum (Though he could be a scum VI). There is no reason for scum to play like that, so it's probably just bad play in general which is not indicative of alignment. At least, that covers the refusing to give a reason for his own attacks part. Him thinking he gets immunity from suspicion because he left on the other hand, is scummy.

Intent to hammer if DN doesn't claim.

Can we lynch this? “Look at me magically vanish and then come in and intent to hammer the obvious VI.”

Scum posting here.

You guys... are silly. I am town and a rider or rohan (VT). Same reason why Monkey's claim was crap because it didn't make sense to have two people be vanilla townie and one with a name claim.

Not scum. I'm never scum. Hate you all.

Look at how incredibly town this is.

So, there must be a resistance to hammer on DeathNote. That leads me to believe both of the remaining real scum are already on the wagon.

VOTE: Subliminal

Fucking Balrog!

yup. hydra slipping all over the place...

Carry me pls.

Which head of BroAlien would like to explain why each head is posting it up around the site but not here?

I was V/LA and other games were easier or more urgent to post in.

That is odd. They've been pretty devoid of activity here even before V/LA

We are still working out the kinks of our hydra.

Scummiest votes on the wagon: Who, Twin Flames, Gollum

Scummiest person off the wagon: Toast

This post is eerily similar to how I felt when I read through day 1 during the night phase.

So.....why are you not voting either?

Hydra kinks. We move votes slowly together as a unit because we want to be in consensus about things.

If this is DN town, its about the worst play we've seen outside of a non-newbie. Thus we're having a hard time buying DN town.

This is far from the worst I’ve seen. Hell, my townplay in C&H was worse than this >.>

Ugh I don’t like this DN wagon Who is scum as fuck.

VOTE: Who

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I scumslip more as town than as scum.

I don't put much weight on scumslips/scumtells. Nacho beat it out of me when he was my IC.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I scumslip more as town than as scum.

I don't put much weight on scumslips/scumtells. Nacho beat it out of me when he was my IC.

-Bro

Can you give an example of you "scumslipping" as town?

Here. "I don't like lynching VIs. I'm going to vote this VI now."

It got me dayvigged >.>

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I scumslip more as town than as scum.

I don't put much weight on scumslips/scumtells. Nacho beat it out of me when he was my IC.

-Bro

Can you give an example of you "scumslipping" as town?

Here. "I don't like lynching VIs. I'm going to vote this VI now."

It got me dayvigged >.>

-Bro

I'd agree that I make scum slips way more blatantly as town; my worst one was here where I typed 'kills' instead of 'investigations' and it kept me as ever being seen as town by influential townies for the rest of the game.

I find DeathNote scummy for other things, like his vote on null-read Subliminal and his stance that he only seems to want to vote people who others have voted in #1693. But the pointed out thing, not so much.

Who, my suspicions of you are here. Comments?

--PA

[alienBRO]

UNVOTE: Who

If nothing else, I want more time to sort through the reactions to his fakeclaim.

--PA

[alienBRO]

I don't remember. I need to do another reread of this game at some point >.>

Also, whoever got poisoned should just claim so we know not to lynch them.

Penguin and I agree about this:

VOTE: TF

Let's see if I can make it 2/2 on starting wagons on scum.

-Bro

pedit: wat?

[alienBRO]

Woohoo the ring is still in play. Now I feel better for finding the SK over main scum.

VOTE: Miss Sub

[alienBRO]

^Bro

[alienBRO]

And you think Who wasn't lying about having the ring because...

[alienBRO]

MuffinMan: What is the scum motivation in claiming a fake guilty? That's why I'm not questioning it.
-Bro

[alienBRO]

...So you get lynched the next day and are down to a single scum mate. That is a great trade. Obviously.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I'm back from V/LA. Gonna catch up on this game in the next day or two (shouldn't take long for this game, but I also have other games that I've been out of commission of for four days)

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Mod: I (the penguin_alien head) will be V/LA for hopefully only 36 hours dealing with a family crisis. If I need to extend it I'll update you. Thanks.

--PA

[alienBRO]

Okay, caught up.

1) Either GM has the ring or he actually destroyed it. I don't see mafia motivation in what he did yesterday, but he still could still be a third party lying about it hoping to coast to a victory.

2) Nothing TF has done has made me think the slot is particularly town, but I also want to run up Toasty or Gollum.

Yeah, I think GM might be a third part, and the last mafioso is in {Gollum, Toasty, TF}

Gonna sync reads with PA, and then we'll place down a vote.

[alienBRO]

^-Bro

[alienBRO]

VOTE: GM

Convince me that you aren't a second ring-scum and I'll join you on TF.

[alienBRO]

^Bro.

Post signing is hard, let's go shopping.

[alienBRO]

Here's the thing: if we lynch the last wraith-scum and there's a ring-scum with the ring out there, we lose. When you had the ring, you knew we were lynching the wraith scum you'd found. Your reads were good enough to find said scum. Come night, by your theory, there'd be only one wraith scum left. You could pick who gets the ring next, and I don't buy that you didn't have a decent town read somewhere to pass it off safely. Instead you say you destroyed it? It doesn't add up. Maybe if scum killed the new ringbearer, that's bad, but we went into night with 12 people. Subtract yourself, and that's eleven possible bearers. An 18% chance scum gets the ring versus an investigation. And the 18% includes you making a random handoff, so ignoring your scum reads.

I agree and have agreed on TF for a while, although given that Who had a fakeclaim identical to an actual VT, I don't have a town read on NSin-Robert.

Does that make my position clearer?

--PA

[alienBRO]

Here's the thing: if we lynch the last wraith-scum and there's a ring-scum with the ring out there, we lose.¹ When you had the ring, you knew we were lynching the wraith scum you'd found. Your reads were good enough to find said scum.² Come night, by your theory, there'd be only one wraith scum left. You could pick who gets the ring next, and I don't buy that you didn't have a decent town read somewhere to pass it off safely. Instead you say you destroyed it?³ It doesn't add up. Maybe if scum killed the new ringbearer, that's bad, but we went into night with 12 people. Subtract yourself, and that's eleven possible bearers. An 18% chance scum gets the ring versus an investigation. And the 18% includes you making a random handoff, so ignoring your scum reads.

I agree and have agreed on TF for a while, although given that Who had a fakeclaim identical to an actual VT, I don't have a town read on NSin-Robert.

Does that make my position clearer?^3a

--PA

1. How is this in any way a good answer to the question "why assume there is another third party" instead of an AtF?
2. No, they weren't. I chose Subliminal to investigate as they would have been a valuable clear but had enough suspicion from others on them that it was possible they were Scum. I thought they would investigate Town.
For the record, if they had been Town I would have outed them as Town and passed the ring elsewhere.
3. Yes.
3a. But I don't think it's intellectually honest.

Speaking of NSin, my meta of him, knowing whose alt he is, makes it much more likely to me that he's Town.

1) What does AtF mean?
2) That's valid.
3) What do you mean by not intellectually honest?

The problem that we are having is that there major discrepancies in the movement of the ring. Who claims to have had it, nobody counterclaims. NSin hammers. Somehow YOU end up with it during night-phase, and you claim to destroy it despite us having just lynched the person whose wincon was to have it AND having the main mafia faction be down to one member. Basically, that the ring got to you is suspect as fuck, and the fact that we don't actually know if it's gone just compounds this problem.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Nevertheless,

I

know the facts of my involvement to be true and therefore do not know why you no longer seem interested in finding Scum but in chasing some impossible dream of a third party instead.

I've bolded the operative word here.

YOU know them to be true, but if you are some sort of ring-scum you're going to say that. The fact that nobody has supplied ANY information to support that, from my perspective, I should suspect nothing fishy is going on makes me incredibly nervous.

Here's what I think we should do: Everyone should claim whether they had the ring day 1 or two, and who they passed it to.

Muffin: I do think that Who lying would be a possibility, but there still had to have been a townie who passed it to GM, and nobody has claimed that. Unless it was Venrob, we should have had a claim from the townie who passed it.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Also: can Who's claim of having the ring be trusted? What reason could he have to lie? If he did have it, why pass it to me?
The answer to all of these, from anyone's pov except his, is IDK.

That's what I'm trying to figure out right now. I'm generally a risk-averse person, so having this not cleared up bothers me.

I'm fairly sure that he last Sauron-scum is Gollum or TF, and I'm favoring TF right now. PA agrees with me that TF is the best candidate.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Mod confirmed it was the 3rd party wincon. The BFF part is concerning, though.

Also, I agree with NSin's plan, but we have to remember that scum could choose not to NK the person for reasons of WIFOM (although I doubt they would do this unless they thought GM destroyed the ring, because leaving an investigation in play is probably not worth it).

Mod, what happens to the ring if the person who had it self-hammers

[alienBRO]

So what you're saying is that I was 100% correct yesterday.

10/10 would do again.

VOTE: GM

-Bro

[alienBRO]

Yeah...care to explain why you didn't dangle from a noose yesterday? Or shall we assume the answer to that is "fuck you guys" again? And where does Saki come into it?

And how is it that you can't see any reason for zMuffin to lie about his investigation? Because here's a good one: what if he's scum trying to score the last mislynch at MyLo on Twin Flames, a popular scum read?

UNVOTE: GM

If the ring did transfer back to GM, I'm not giving up the option of hammering to conduct our own investigation tonight, thank you very much. (BRO, we'll discuss in-hydra, but this is my gut take.)

--PA

[alienBRO]

If zMuffin is wraith-scum and you're ring-scum, the latter of which seems quite likely to me, we're actually at MyLo today. He's voting you today. I can't imagine that a hand-wavey explanation of 'it was the ring' is going to suffice for why your lynch didn't stick. Which means we're lynching you again today. That leaves one wraith-scum and three townies after a wraith-scum kill: MyLo.

Saki. Isn't. In. This. Game. See: the player list you just quoted.

[alienBRO]

^ --PA

[alienBRO]

actually.

@alienbro,

there is one scenario that could possibly solve this. let me hammer goodmorning today. if he is ring scum and i get the ring after his lynch, there are two scenarios here:

(1) twin flames kills me, he's confirmed scum, you lynch him tomorrow, gg town win

(2) i get the ring after goodmorning lynch. twin flames kills someone that isn't me. i then pass the ring to one of the two players that isn't twin flames still alive tomorrow. they can pass the ring amongst themselves as much as they want so that neither i nor twin flames would reasonably know who has the ring. after this, we no lynch, and there's a 50% chance of confirming i'm not lying

this works if i'm right in my suspicion that goodmorning is currently in possession of the ring

thoughts?

This seems decent. Will consult with PA about it. We're hashing a few other things out right now.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

actually.

@alienbro,

there is one scenario that could possibly solve this. let me hammer goodmorning today. if he is ring scum and i get the ring after his lynch, there are two scenarios here:

(1) twin flames kills me, he's confirmed scum, you lynch him tomorrow, gg town win

(2) i get the ring after goodmorning lynch. twin flames kills someone that isn't me. i then pass the ring to one of the two players that isn't twin flames still alive tomorrow. they can pass the ring amongst themselves as much as they want so that neither i nor twin flames would reasonably know who has the ring. after this, we no lynch, and there's a 50% chance of confirming i'm not lying

this works if i'm right in my suspicion that goodmorning is currently in possession of the ring

thoughts?

(1) That's true. If you flip town, we know Twin Flames is scum.

(2) We're left with {Twin Flames, zMuffinMan, alienBRO, DeathNote, NSin} minus whomever scum-TF doesn't kill from your POV. We no-lynch in the hopes that whichever of {alienBRO, DeathNote, NSin} you passed the ring to during the day survives the night to investigate. It's a 50% chance we go into the next day with the non-ring-holding survivor having to choose between you and Twin Flames with no further information.

Versus someone else hammering, that person is the NK and the ring goes away anyways. And the survivors still have to pick between zMuffinMan and TF.

I'm kicking around whether a massclaim is a good idea. I end up thinking not, but I do think Twin Flames and zMuffinMan should claim. It's been set up to be 1v1 there, except town has to decide tomorrow who's right. I'd rather not have a surprise role claim thrown in the mix at the end.

BRO, DeathNote, NSin, what's your take on having TF and zMuffinMan role claim?

BRO said he wanted DN to hammer, but I'm leaning toward following zMuffinMan's plan. DN, I get being paranoid and only trusting yourself at this point, but I think it's pretty clearly either zMuffinMan or TF who's wraith-scum. Do you disagree that GM is likely ring-scum? If you're on board there, can you agree that it's unlikely we had 6/15 anti-town parties?

Even if zMuffinMan is somehow a ring-scum (making this a 40% scum game) we just refuse to lynch until he hands off the ring to a townie who can destroy it.

--PA

[alienBRO]

Bro- You see my problem right? The only answer I can see to last night is that Muffin is flat out lying to us and that bothers me. Like... I honestly believe he is town so I can't imagine why he would lie but I see no other possible reason.

I agree that this is possible, but why would Muffin fake this whole ring gambit instead of just riding the fact that TF would have gotten lynched in MyLo to victory if he were scum? The gambit seems like a less elegant solution by far.

I agree with everything penguin has said. Muffin, hammer when you get online.

VOTE: GM

[alienBRO]

Woohoo Muffin got in before Saki could derp-hammer.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I don't think GM is scum if for no other reason than the fact that it would be OP as balls for that role to exist on a 3rd party.

Like, we should just lynch TF today, and if GM wins because we literally needed scum to kill him for us, that's just bad game design and it's on Emp/the reviewers of the setup.

Gonna confer with PA before dropping the vote, but I think TF is the lynch today.

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I'm in agreement with DeathNote and hydra partner BRO. If GM is 2+ times unlynchable scum, and we can't win even if we lynch all the wraith scum and know who the ring scum is, I'm not going to feel badly about this.

So we have to set ourselves up to be able to lynch both TF and zMuffinMan as necessary; I'm in favor of starting with TF.

--PA

[alienBRO]

GM do you currently have the ring?

-Bro

[alienBRO]

I think the only way town wins is if GM fucked up claiming and is actually town.

VOTE: TF

-Bro

[alienBRO]

UNVOTE: Twin Flames

Sorry for the dissonance, but given that if GM stays unlynchable and ring-attracting or whatever we town can't win, I say we take another crack at GM. It still leaves us time to lynch TF as a last resort, as their last post seemed like a scum admission to me.

[alienBRO]

Actually I want to hear from TF first. And what happens if a not-zMuffin person hammers GM and draws the scum kill? Then the ring might not bounce back to GM and we can still lynch TF tomorrow? Since ring-scum only win if they end the game with the ring.

[alienBRO]

Sorry, ^ is PA

[alienBRO]

We'll hammer GM if TF and zMuffin vote her.

--PA

[alienBRO]

@alienbro,

that would kind of defeat the purpose of lynching GM. wraithscum (whether you believe it's me or twin flames) would be forced to kill you, and it would go to a scenario where town cannot win if GM is ringscum.

a lynch on GM only works today if i hammer and wraithscum (whether you believe it's me or twin flames) kills GM tonight.

Yes, but it's possible that the ring won't jump back to GM if wraith-scum has it. And yes, we lose our guaranteed shot at hitting wraith-scum, but it's no worse than any other LyLo where town has two choices.

[alienBRO]

Talked about in in PA in the QT, she agrees with me that this setup opaqueness is dumb and that I should just go ahead and do this.

VOTE: TF

If GM is scum that we can't actually beat without the help from other scum, at all, then this loss is on shitty setup.

-Bro