Trouble in The Cougar's Den (Game over!)

[davesaz]

ika, are you town?

unfortunately, i wanted to be sk or 3rd party but no luck

Scum it is, eh?

VOTE: Aeronaut

[davesaz]

do you consider 3rd parites scum? sk is understandable but outside of that?

No, but that wasn't the point. You said you'd want to be 3p and didn't get it.

p.edit: noted

[davesaz]

do you consider 3rd parites scum?

sk is understandable but outside of that?

No

, but that wasn't the point. You said you'd want to be 3p and didn't get it.

p.edit: noted

it kinda does matter cus if im survivor does that mean im scum?

i mean i get your point in general but i do want your thoughs on what you consider scum and not

Question and answer underlined.
In general terms, scum = "wincon ~= town loses" where ~= means "roughly equal to".

[davesaz]

do you consider 3rd parites scum? sk is understandable but outside of that?

No, but that wasn't the point. You said you'd want to be 3p and didn't get it.

p.edit: noted

There is a lot going on here. Why are you commenting on things that are 100% peripheral to the main action?

2 questions:
What part of my post are you commenting on?
Why do you think it is peripheral?

[davesaz]

No, but that wasn't the point. You said you'd want to be 3p and didn't get it.

p.edit: noted

What do you mean what part of your post, it was two sentences

Are you kidding? Whether or not third parties are scum is completely irrelevant. There's been a pretty interesting exchange between other parties in the thread...

You don't know me well enough to read the subtext. See that bolded part? It means I have noticed that there is other stuff going on. That stuff is interesting. My method is to read a lot more than I post.

[davesaz]

"I"

"always"

"catch"

NY 176

Sabotage

We the Purple 2

In Smite you died before I nailed the entire scumteam.

Now you provide some counter examples and we'll compare.

Fallacy... don't remember / care to look up the name.

[davesaz]

Work yesterday involved a lot more concentration than usual.

230 - Why so concerned about the 3p talk? Is there really that much of it? Got something to hide, that you want people to forget about it?

236 - I agree on the needing a wagon part. I don't remember what the vc is so will need to go back and look at that.

It is also time to collect thoughts, as there is now enough to read from some players. Maybe I'll get to that today. I can make a few not very useful comments.
Ika looks townish, by meta.
There is enough info to get some gut on Drixx, but it will be work to do so. I don't remember offhand who the other RR head is.
On Cephrir, I'm going to want to follow up on my comment regarding 230, is it an abnormal obsession? If something else is being "ignored" then what?

[davesaz]

Lurker checking since it's quick. Aeronaut seems really disengaged compared to other games. I have not paid attention to his posting frequency vs. alignment nor have I checked other site activity, so don't have an immediate read. BipolarChemist has only posted twice. Don't think I've played with him before, no read. Anyone have an opinion on these two?

[davesaz]

TheWayItEnds has made 5 of 7 posts on the same tangential issue, and not even a whiff of scum hunting. That's good enough for a weak scum read.

[davesaz]

Cephrir is really hard to read in iso. Roughly half (I did not actually count) of the posts are one-liners which give no clue as to context. At least half of that is not game related. Use of one-liners could be just playstyle as some people like to treat it like a conversation. However it does make me want to go back and see what is being discussed then to see if this could be a distraction tactic.

Pedit: I see TTH's point, though I will say that IMO there is a difference between wagon and WAGON.

[davesaz]

Why BpC?

[davesaz]

Please compare the strength of that case vs. the strength of the case on RR.

[davesaz]

Actually, that was a serious question. I have an opinion and want to read you by seeing if your opinion makes sense or not.
Obviously it would not make sense to state my opinion first, since you can sheep it to avoid suspicion.

[davesaz]

So you don't have a read on RR but can scumread BPC after a couple of posts strongly enough to push a wagon? Interesting...

I reread

(today)

the early RR material and in addition to the well thought out case on the slot, it was very similar to the early part of a Drixx scum game I was town in.
VOTE: Reasonably Rational

[davesaz]

Davez when did you start to do meta?

After I had been here about 6 months or so. You didn't notice me using it in a couple of recent finished games, at least one of which you were lynched as scum? Granted you replaced in, lurked, and were lynched, but...

[davesaz]

Lurker checking since it's quick. Aeronaut seems really disengaged compared to other games. I have not paid attention to his posting frequency vs. alignment nor have I checked other site activity, so don't have an immediate read. BipolarChemist has only posted twice. Don't think I've played with him before, no read. Anyone have an opinion on these two?

Oh boy, pointless filler questions hoping to start a lurker wagon!

VOTE: davesaz

Umm, have you ever heard of waking up on a weekend morning, doing a little reading, and posting comments about what you read? Is this concept foreign to you?

Did any wagons result from this? Is there any hint of that being my motivation for making the quoted post?

[davesaz]

Lurker checking since it's quick. Aeronaut seems really disengaged compared to other games. I have not paid attention to his posting frequency vs. alignment nor have I checked other site activity, so don't have an immediate read. BipolarChemist has only posted twice. Don't think I've played with him before, no read. Anyone have an opinion on these two?

I don't really see the reason for a "lurker check" that omits like half of the people with fewer than 10 posts (including this slot). Especially including BipolarChemist, who currently has a wagon on him and it's clear that people have issues with things other than his activity. It seems like dave is trying to feel out the waters here to see if there are other excuses to vote BPC.

Not a fan of 241 or 242. They feel like filler posts to me (and thus I find myself agreeing with what Cephrir has said).

Those two posts were using "time since last post" instead of "number of posts" as a criteria. Everyone else had posted within 1.5 days.
By that criteria, they were the only slots which merited being looked at in that way.

[davesaz]

@dave not liking Aero’s posts at the moment. For some reason, it makes me think of the game we played where he was Jester.

Thanks for answering. Would be nice if other people took the question seriously.

Not seeing your point about a difference between “wagon and WAGON.” A wagon is a wagon.

There is a huge difference between 1-3 votes and L-2ish size. A 1-3 vote wagon will only unnerve the weakest of players. It takes a really major wagon to get truly indicative behavior. And associations can get stronger with bigger non-lynch wagons. With just a couple of votes there are too many people not on the small wagon to be able to sort out who avoided it.

Not feeling the sugar on the Reas wagon.

What makes RR more scum for me than Bipolar is that RR was being actively shifty. It's an active scumminess vs. passive and I tend to believe the case on the active one more. I also have direct meta reasons on one RR head (Drixx) vs not having much awareness of Bipolar's meta.

Not liking Monk either.

I'm undecided, will need to see more in order to sort him out.

[davesaz]

Thanks for answering. Would be nice if other people took the question seriously.

yes, no one else has been giving opinions on bpc and aero.

no one.

Ooh, you noticed me. I'm impressed.
Have you posted anything meaningful on Aero

after

my post?
Have you posted anything meaningful on BpC at all? (yes, I know you have posted *stuff*)

If you weren't such an arrogant prick, you'd have a conversation with me instead of trying to belittle my posting. Pull your head out please.

[davesaz]

Lurker checking since it's quick. Aeronaut seems really disengaged compared to other games. I have not paid attention to his posting frequency vs. alignment nor have I checked other site activity, so don't have an immediate read. BipolarChemist has only posted twice. Don't think I've played with him before, no read. Anyone have an opinion on these two?

Ooh, I'm scummy because I should have said "anyone who hasn't already posted an opinion on these two wanna give one now".

Really?

Here's a clue. I gave another one in my post before the quoted one. When I'm coming in to the thread on a Saturday morning after sleeping in, after working about 60 hours that week, I do things that take 5 minutes. Open "activity" window, scroll to bottom, subtract hydra slips, look at the oldest poster, iso. Wow, that does not look town. Make a comment on it. Did I take time to research who has an opinion? No, I did not. I think that people who are interested in talking about it will talk about it. Maybe my sleepy brain is off a bit and it's nothing. Maybe I just found scum. Maybe I didn't. Maybe it's a stupid way to scumhunt. But it takes 5 minutes and I

just woke up

.

Here's another clue.

This post

was posted right after I

just woke up

. You people are starting to piss me off, so I might take 10 minutes instead of 5.

To reply to some other drivel directed my way... I think the person I'm directing this toward will recognize it without a quote.

Active vs Passive. What, are you in middle school or something? You don't know the difference? Passive scum is someone you find scummy because they aren't really doing anything. Active scum is someone you find scummy because they are actively posting shit that doesn't make sense. Passive scum can be very easily confused with disinterested townie, and results in a

lot

of mislynches. Once in a while you actually catch one this way, so it is still a valid way of looking for scum. I asked specifically in the post quoted above, does anyone have direct meta on BpC to show that he has a history of passive scum behavior. Active scum would pair up with misguided townie, and can at times be hard to differentiate. Trajectory is helpful in determining the difference here. IMO, RR is following the trajectory of active scum (provided it isn't a case of neither head being available atm).

I find it easier to sort active scum vs. misguided townie, and have a harder time with passive scum vs. disinterested townie.
Kindly hit the reset button. Take a look at my posting as coming from someone who is posting exactly what they think when they think it.

ika - town for now but watching trajectory
Heartless - probably town
Cephrir - I'd like to think this is town but have a nagging feeling of opportunism
RR - feels quite scummy, watching trajectory
BpC - slightly more scum than town, but I'd hate to focus on a lurker and get close to no associatives from it
Monkey - feels a little like he did in a previous game when we were both town, but not enough content for a true read

Aero - tripping radar, one person has been kind enough to say something about him since I asked, one decided to rub their earlier posts in my face. I'm uncomfortable with having a mild scum read on someone but they are not a topic of widespread conversation.

Performer - activity in this sector, but I have not had sufficient reading time to analyze.

OK, call it 15 minutes instead of 10. I really need coffee. <-- another true comment on RL

[davesaz]

Can you comment on the other hundreds of words in the post?

[davesaz]

You keep reiterating that you "just woke up" like that's some sort of verifiable claim that I obviously should have already known before I went and so cruelly didn't like your posts.

Anger management (my anger).
One thing that I universally do, regardless of alignment, is make occasional true comments on RL. When I can't give a game attention due to RL, I'm extremely open about that. It is not alignment indicative -- a post can be done quickly and be a pack of lies, but the statement that it was done quickly is always true. All well and good, lots of people do that. Non-wookies don't rip your arms off when you question the veracity of their RL statements. It's a warning that I'm a wookie in this regard. Question the content all you want, but don't question my accounts of how I do it.

[davesaz]

snip

I have only seen this type of indignation from davesaz as scum. He's probably scum caught for the (in his eyes) wrong reasons.

-Ank

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=60211

[davesaz]

TheWayItEnds has made 5 of 7 posts on the same tangential issue, and not even a whiff of scum hunting. That's good enough for a weak scum read.

Oh you sweet summer child.

Saw the reason you were gone, bummer.
Still hoping for the scum hunting.

[davesaz]

Do you think spiffeh is town?

[davesaz]

Day started while I was on a camping trip. Caught up reading, not caught up understanding.

[davesaz]

Other than your vote, have you stated any clear scum reads today?

[davesaz]

The post before mine.

[davesaz]

I am wondering why people have a read on PV one way or another here. Can someone explain their read on them please?

Oh hey I can help with this.

I'm town reading PV because hes very probably town.

That is not very helpful, it is missing a because clause.

A better response to 725 is to ask LQ why the townreads on PV are an issue. (LQ, you can consider this post to be that question btw)

[davesaz]

Like I said, my observational capabilities are pretty lacking and I usually use my admittedly weird reasoning for my reads which I'm sure will come out sometime in this thread unless they already have with the way people are questioning my reads. But yes, if anyone has Mod Meta on Coug's games I'd like to know if anyone can tell me what roles he's likely to use.

Nice example of lampshading and role fishing here. TBH I did not notice if someone else already commented on it, I ran across it following a different lead.

[davesaz]

I am wondering why people have a read on PV one way or another here. Can someone explain their read on them please?

Oh hey I can help with this.

I'm town reading PV

because

hes very probably town.

That is not very helpful, it is missing a because clause.

A better response to 725 is to ask LQ why the townreads on PV are an issue. (LQ, you can consider this post to be that question btw)

let me help you out.

Very funny. I may at some time want a real answer.

[davesaz]

I'm going to put TheWayItEnds on the tentative town list.

[davesaz]

I don't know what lamp shading is. If it means you think I am just saying that as cover in some way for me to say I'm town you're free to look through my games on my wiki.

Bringing up a negative attribute in such a way as to attempt to deflect suspicion from future instances of it. It is possible that you're giving town a little help here in understanding your play, but it's also something scum try to do to excuse themselves from the need to have good reads.

[davesaz]

Reviewing the votes, I'm liking either BotLane or MonkeyMan as scum. BotLane was early on the performer wagon, and MonkeyMan's L-1 vote is perfectly positioned as a virtual hammer given ika was in the game. That's not really reliable without some behavior analysis to go with it, but one step at a time.

[davesaz]

Read this entire page. That's basically how I've been reading the past five or so pages.

-Ank

Feel free to contribute something other than eeyore to the discussion.

[davesaz]

LQ's style hasn't changed. I'm not confident yet in being able to accurately read it, other than to say that in this case it is not reliable to interpret bad reasoning as alignment indicative. Note to self, review from manipulative / non-manipulative standpoint.

@Spiffeh: How is MM lynchbait, and does calling him that imply a read?

My time is extremely short right now, more later...

[davesaz]

57-NOTHING BECAUSE I DON’T COMMENT PAGES I AM POSTING IN!

This strikes me as odd.

[davesaz]

Does anyone else thing Botlane is being avoidant or is it just me?

Did you post this before or after Ank said it was way past time to sleep?

[davesaz]

EBWOP try to post it -- as in write the post before and submit after? Or post it before reading Ank's post?

[davesaz]

That's an odd vote Heartless. What for?

wild air up my ass and reasons i'm too lazy to talk about right now

ah fuck

Its whatevs. Your a town read, so I gots no problems with the vote. I was just curious.

This post gives me a feeling that once you've townread someone, you're not going to question what they do. Would you say that is accurate?

[davesaz]

Reading page 71. Scum make a fake bp claim to draw a cc when they have a strongman.

[davesaz]

But even leaving that aside, why on God's green earth does a Mafia Goon claim Back-up BP instead of BP? BP is neither town nor scum, since it can effectively be either.
To me, that claim makes more sense if Performer knows that a BP exists. And it being day1,

he only knows that one exists if there is a scum BP

.

Bolded is a wrong assumption, it is not the only way scum would be able to know/assume a BP. If scum have a strongman, they expect town to have a BP. Making a fake claim that results in a BP counter identifies who they need to use the strongman on.

BTW I'm still trying to catch up, think I left off at the bottom of page 72.

[davesaz]

I have seen the vengeful mechanic done that way on a different site. IMO claiming it when it works that way is the worst way to play it for town. As claimed it sets up people who stay on the wagon to be townread and people who leave the wagon to be scumread. And it sets up town to not want to lynch the player. Put all that together and it makes a dandy claim for scum.

I'm not sure on RR. A SK might want to claim their BP to call off both attempted vig and scum kills, and furthermore might not even be BP but claim it anyway. Many people get mixed or townish reads from SK's which could explain the strong division of opinion on the slot.

Neither claim makes the claimant town by itself. We need to filter the claim through the lens of regular reads.

[davesaz]

As drixx said before though just lynch us before/at lylo, we're a safety lynch, and let us find some fucking scum for you before we have to die.

Strange thing for town to say, lynch us at lylo.

[davesaz]

I have seen the vengeful mechanic done that way on a different site. IMO claiming it when it works that way is the worst way to play it for town. As claimed it sets up people who stay on the wagon to be townread and people who leave the wagon to be scumread. And it sets up town to not want to lynch the player. Put all that together and it makes a dandy claim for scum.

I'm not sure on RR. A SK might want to claim their BP to call off both attempted vig and scum kills, and furthermore might not even be BP but claim it anyway. Many people get mixed or townish reads from SK's which could explain the strong division of opinion on the slot.

Neither claim makes the claimant town by itself. We need to filter the claim through the lens of regular reads.

They have 132 posts. What is your regular read on them, and what posts inform that read?

Not group scum. Possible SK. The crumb and claim posts.

[davesaz]

Reminder that even if MM were rolecop (regardless of alignment) and confirmed RR as BP, that doesn't mean anything for RR's alignment.
No reason MM can't be scum rolecop trying to muddy the waters. And in fact if he's scum rolecop and scum don't have daychat this would be the only way to confirm it for them.

[davesaz]

Dave is a good vig

Still haven't figured out my play huh?

[davesaz]

Speaking of done nothing...

VOTE: davesaz

Umm, wasn't I among the first to peg MonkeyMan as scum? Yeah, I should have put my vote where that suspicion led me. RL interfered, something I'd rather not got into in depth.

I'm still thinking RR fits the SK profile. If the 2nd vote is a vig and not a SK then a claim will be needed at some point. In the meantime, the folks who are assuming it is a vig get weak scumreads.

Agree with a Botlane scum read.

[davesaz]

EBWOP second vote->second kill.

That "crumb" serves two potential purposes. The BP aspect has subsequently been outright claimed. It also plants and/or reinforces the idea that we have a vig. Which is one of the reasons why I think RR is SK.

[davesaz]

Eww in what way?

VOTE: RR

[davesaz]

I'm going to be laughing my ass off if I'm right. (not arrogant enough to say when)
I'd bet the farm on it being a BP SK and not vig, with scum having a strongman, if I had a farm to bet.

I don't remember if I've said it in this game or not, but I

never

lie about RL.

Lynching me will hurt town but it wouldn't be the worst thing you could do. Sadly the morons voting for me are likely town, so I can't even say get them to get scum.

[davesaz]

Calling people morons isn't likely to get them to see your side of things

Just sayin

Feel free to make a case.

[davesaz]

What gives you the idea I think scum are covering for SK?
My problem is that folks I'm seeing as town seem hell bent on ignoring the SK as the likely case.

[davesaz]

Calling people morons isn't likely to get them to see your side of things

Just sayin

Feel free to make a case.

You're funny.

Read 2371 please.

I believe I had a scumread on your slot way before Anti said anything. 817

[davesaz]

I still think RR could be scum idk why people dropped that.

Probably in part because of monkey.

I didn't follow this, please explain.

[davesaz]

How does monkey lead to not rr?

[davesaz]

davesaz: Would you mind giving out a larger reads list with reasons? I asked you for this yesterday but you never got back to me.

Yes, but it's 1:30 and way past time to sleep.

[davesaz]

Clearly town
davesaz
Heartless
Cephrir
MattP
LicketyQuickety

Not really sure / can't remember what I'm thinking
pisskop
Firebringer
HerryPanther
Spiffeh
TheWayItEnds
Kthxbye

Scum reads (least to most)
Ankamius
Vedith
Reasonably Rational

---

Ankamius - Weakest scum read. Based on some vote analysis and a remembered feeling of insecurity from some of the slot's posts. Later posting might override this, though I don't do that lightly.

Vedith - This is based almost entirely on the very bad claim, in particular claiming the detailed variant. Also I don't remember seeing any comments showing town motivation in how to use the role.

Reasonably Rational - Also based on the claim but to a lesser degree. The Drixx posting reminds me more of a game where he was scum than games where he was town. The posts seem scripted to look town. Much better fit for a SK role than groupscum due to VCA, though I can buy the VCA in terms of bussing as well. The Drixx scum game I'm comparing to featured some really hardcore bussing.

pedit: I know my post took a long time to write, but didn't expect so much activity this late at night my time.

[davesaz]

Why do you think it's odd?
Plus, I think this may be the first time when I've given a comprehensive list, and there are probably several players I haven't given a prior read at all. So how would you know?

[davesaz]

That was my question several pages ago. IMO the flip

reinforced

those reads.

[davesaz]

@LQ: Dude, I'm falling asleep at my computer to follow through on a comittment. Every word of it is what I think. I didn't even do any re-reading, I typed the whole damn thing from my memory of what I've been thinking about the game.

[davesaz]

Anyway, back to RRs point. Dave clearly isn't interested in trying to find and push for scum lynches. I propose whe agree as much as we can on a list of people to be on his wagon and a list of those he can choose from to veng. That way if hes town, we aren't completely bossing him around with his PR and if he's scum, yay.

I guess you meant to say vedith here?

[davesaz]

Why does it matter what my opinion of the SK is. There's bullets, I havent noticed a crumb Id call reliable, and that mastin kill yo. I have a pet peeve about people killing 'godly' players because they're simply afraid of them.

Why, again? Yes, Dave would be a better vig than lynch. Why waste a lynch on what a vig is supposed to optimally do? IF you believe in a vig over an SK then you should believe that the mastin kill was suboptimal from a town pov.

[quote="In
The reasons why people hold the opinions they do about the game state or setup always matter. I agree that mastin was a suboptimal kill for a vig, but she was also a suboptimal kill for a sk. That's why other people aren't nearly as certain as you are that there is a sk rather than a vig. It is confusing , though, that you feel that there is more likely a sk than a vig, but you referred to someone as a better vig than lynch.

Umm, why the assumption that mastin wasn't the mafia kill?

[davesaz]

vote vedith or we're lynching you today.

This.

Vote: Lickety

Umm, why the assumption that mastin wasn't the mafia kill?

because she wasnt.

If that's a claim, it would make a bunch of stuff much easier to solve.
If it's not a claim, then once again how would you know?

[davesaz]

If that's a claim, it would make a bunch of stuff much easier to solve.
If it's not a claim, then once again how would you know?

Necklacing is a fire based kill

Blowtorching is a fire based kill.

You do the math.

Isn't it a general site guideline that method of kill doesn't indicate alignment of killer? Or am I mistakenly applying a specific rule too generally? It is definitely something I have seen before.

I don't know what necklacing is. I would have figured it was choking related if I were thinking about it at all.

[davesaz]

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

[davesaz]

I understand LQ's desire to not get venged from either alignment. But when I reviewed his most recent 20-30 posts it doesn't seem like he cares who is scum as long as it isn't him.

[davesaz]

Thanks. Going to bed, we'll see if it's still a freak show in the morning.

[davesaz]

Yes I meant Ved.

LQ, u will vote Ved. Ved, I'd like ypu to veng kill LQ. I'm on phone so I can't qupte, bit you call LQ scum for what he said yet cuz heart wants the venge kill on LQ you won't do it? Explain this pls

If someone can explain how it makes any sense why I would vote vedith so I can be veng killed that would be great.

Yeah, he explicitly said he didn't want to be venge killed.

[davesaz]

I didn't like either of their answers to my question about why they're scumreading me. I still fully believe there's scum-intent somewhere to that initial push on me at the beginning of the day.

I can't believe you're uptight about a read that was explicitly stated as

weak

, and hasn't even been voted.
If someone fit the profile for bussing Performer, you and Monkey would be the ones. One of those two VCA reads has already flipped scum.
I won't drop the other one just for kicks. If it's you, me and a strong town at LYLO, you'll be the caught scum.
But this is far from a push. LQ is flopping like a fish, I don't trust Vedith because the way he claimed venge is a scumtell, and I still think Drixx's "love & kisses" thing is scum acting a role.

[davesaz]

I didn't like either of their answers to my question about why they're scumreading me. I still fully believe there's scum-intent somewhere to that initial push on me at the beginning of the day.

I can't believe you're uptight about a read that was explicitly stated as

weak

, and hasn't even been voted.
If someone fit the profile for bussing Performer, you and Monkey would be the ones. One of those two VCA reads has already flipped scum.
I won't drop the other one just for kicks. If it's you, me and a strong town at LYLO, you'll be the caught scum.
But this is far from a push. LQ is flopping like a fish, I don't trust Vedith because the way he claimed venge is a scumtell, and

I still think Drixx's "love & kisses" thing is scum acting a role.

We have one other completed game, you're welcome to see whether or not Drixx signs his posts in that fashion there as well. Like...that's the worst reason to think someone is scum that I've heard in quite some time, so kudos on that.

-Cerb

It's a metaphor for "gut". People don't like the term, but that's what it is. Something has seemed off.

[davesaz]

Who is townreading Spiffeh and why? I need a refresher on that.

I would prefer LQ, Vedith, Ank in order of high to low preference. Any of those flips serves the town purpose of getting more info for reads. Obviously a scum lynch is better but we need to decide soon.

[davesaz]

You'd be ok with being lynched, but not ok with a venge? Or just a change of heart?

[davesaz]

NKA indicates mafia might be assuming a protective role of some kind.
The pattern of NK's are also still leaning SK for me, not vig. The assumption that it is a vig troubles me.

[davesaz]

If matt has any results he should claim them asap

[davesaz]

Still town. Which means scum is probably someone you are hard town reading.