Trouble in The Cougar's Den (Game over!)

Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:57 pm

In post 2562, Kthxbye wrote:No. If he is venge, its LQ....I could prolly also go for Spiff. I dont like his latest, but I dont like LQs recent 'lets flip ved' with no bote attached. If I had to guess, Ved is in fact venge and LQ is scum based on last 2 pages.

no

no no no no no no no no

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 am

There are at least 6 great kill targets before I would even start thinking about Lickety, and if he gets killed because a largely scum movement apparently can't read his posts, I'm going to be grumpy about it

Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:51 pm

Coug has a meta for flavored kills, it's not a coincidence if something lines up

Tue Nov 10, 2015 3:12 am

Oh sure, he's made zero sense for the past few pages. His stance appears wildly inconsistent with my memory of reality.

Tue Nov 10, 2015 3:13 am

Come on guys Anti's rageposting is hilarious

Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:33 am

I got nothin' right now. I don't know if there's anyone I feel I can point at and say, "This is scum."

Sun Nov 15, 2015 10:29 am

I have very little confidence in this Ankamius wagon, but would not suggest LQ as an alternative either. I think HerryPanther is still a solid avenue to pursue, and TWIE is a decent utility lynch

Sun Nov 15, 2015 10:30 am

Also still down to get Vedith whenever

Would kinda like it to be now simply because I currently have no confidence in much of anything

Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:48 pm

VOTE: Ankamius, then. But let the record show I think we've got it wrong this time.

Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:02 pm

1. Cephrir
end of list

Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:20 pm

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:22 pm

This suggests that the mafia is not reading the thread.

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:23 pm

It's a vig, for fucks sake. Yes, crosskill hunting, SKs totally do that when we've lynched mafia three consecutive days.

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:24 pm

In post 2878, Heartless wrote:
In post 2875, MattP wrote:Scum keeps killing quieter townreads. I think that's a strong sign there is scum in the stronger townreads.

if there is, it's you.

i think it's more likely they're hunting for the outside killer though

That wouldn't be too bright of them.

I'm not ready to go full paranoia mode, though, especially when we don't seem to need to.

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:25 pm

In post 2890, MattP wrote:Vig should claim, if it's an SK and we mislynch today then we are in lylo.

I take issue with your math.

VOTE: Vedith

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:32 pm

I mean, if someone has a guilty I think they should claim, but otherwise I don't see any reason to out the doctor that probably exists

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:35 pm

Don't know if I agree. Particularly if the people with innocents on them are me, Heartless, Matt, etc., in which case thanks for being a terrible investigative role.

Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:51 pm

it was everyone who's been reading the thread

Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:51 pm

have you not been reading the thread?

Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:40 am

ITT: Everyone is wrong

Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:17 am

I mean I could keep arguing about vigs and why there isn't any particular reason for them to claim right now

Or I could put my head in a toilet and flush repeatedly

Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:34 am

In post 2924, Reasonably Rational wrote:Conservatively just factoring in probability and not any reads or anything else, an honest Vedith would have a much greater probability of nailing scum with the claimed venge power later in the game with fewer targets to select from.

I mean yeah but so would our lynches and we're going to venge someone we would have lynched anyway so what difference does it make

Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:36 am

Scum is going to kill vedith exactly never. there is no reason to be afraid of him. if he's town, lynching him is the same as lynching someone else really, only an additional body is lost, and it's not like they're going to be quivering in fear of his scumhunting prowess

Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:13 am

oh no, not sass! anything but that!

i don't understand why it's difficult to believe that no sk would be as awful as this one would have to be

Wed Nov 18, 2015 7:58 am

In post 2954, Kthxbye wrote:
In post 2951, Reasonably Rational wrote:Whatever. I talked to Drixx, and even though there are most likely two anti-town role left in a town of 11, we lynch Vedith now, he has a 20% chance of hitting scum, versus lynching him at 6, where he'd have a 40% chance of hitting scum, he disagrees with my assessment and has a way better record as town than 0/4 on this site me, so sure, it's better to lynch him now.

VOTE: Vedith

And yes, vedith is welcome to venge us, but it won't do anything but prove our claim, as we stated back on Day 2, so though there is utility in guaranteeing that his venge won't result in two town deaths, it's arguable that it might be better to use it on someone who could actually be scum.

-Cerb

While it sucks on your end if you're actually town, this confirms you. We will at least know you are town going into night and IF there's a doc, they may save you. This would be an even better plan if we have a Vig and they claimed. Then scum would have to choose to leave a confirmed town in game or take out a town NK role.

What about being confirmed BP in a game with a vig makes a player confirmed town

Wed Nov 18, 2015 7:59 am

Really don't think pisskop is scum here

Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:24 am

Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:20 am

Are you fucking kidding me

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:22 am

yes this is definitely our fault

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:23 am

"this easy mislynch claimed vengeful im shaking in my boots we better kill him" - no one ever

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:25 am

you don't get to critique anyone's gameplay

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:28 am

you've been lynched because your claimed role sounded like a lie

it is in fact a lie

i maintain that i lynched scum, role pm aside

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:29 am

yeah, i totally didn't vote for all the scum lynches, you are so right, and i definitely wasn't calling the first two scum long before their lynches

yeah

that's accurate

whatever im going to stop being baited now

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:41 am

yeah, because you played terribly

but at least matt wouldn't be dead

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:44 am

my scumread of you had absolutely nothing to do with performer and everything to do with how scummy you were

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:45 am

i have not been tunnelling, you just only read when your name pops up evidently

Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:46 am

i don't know why i'm talking at you right now, i actually cannot provide a concrete reason except that yelling gives me some sort of catharsis

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:55 am

It's still a vig

There are probably just five scum

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:56 am

Looking at the alive list, I kind of think it just has to be Spiffeh.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:57 am

And I don't mean that I think he's the vig.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:59 am

I just realized that Herry wasn't a vig kill

That's weird

Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:20 am

In post 3127, Heartless wrote:
In post 3120, Cephrir wrote:Looking at the alive list, I kind of think it just has to be Spiffeh.

...and...?

I'm not sure. I don't really believe that it's RR, though. Assuming a certain assumption I'm making is correct, I would have to say Firebringer is my best guess. But I think I should get that assumption verified today.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:21 am

Yeah, yknow, I don't think there's any value to be had in being a cagey fuck about this today.

TWIE, you are the vig, right?

Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:56 am

I don't think I specifically called for a vig on mastin, but I believe Matt did, and I did express that I didn't have a solid read on her

Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:57 am

Anyone who thinks that's an SK speak up so I can make fun of you

Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:30 pm

In post 3141, Heartless wrote:
In post 3130, Cephrir wrote:I don't really believe that it's RR, though.

any particular reason for this ceph?

Not really. I've just been reading their posts all game and have gotten to the point where they feel like town who just keep being so, so wrong, all the time. I also want to believe in a bulletproof in the setup.

Possibly the best counterpoint to their being town is, unfortunately, performer's claim, which now that I think about it... is really gross :/

Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:31 pm

In post 3140, Heartless wrote:i'm townreading spiffeh still.

I know that I used to be doing this. I seem to have forgotten why.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:32 pm

You also mentioned something at some point about him crumbing a protective role, and I don't think there is another protective role in this game.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:04 pm

Looking at the setup as a whole, I don't think it fits. I guess it could, but I don't think we need it. Granted, ninja + watcher + no tracker is kind of tacky.

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:04 pm

Maybe you're right, I'm trash at balance

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:05 pm

the good news is, if we can agree that twie and pisskop and each other are town, we win, so

Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:15 pm

I don't see the harm

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:30 am

In post 3164, Reasonably Rational wrote:Is it just that pisskop is so extremely town, or is it that he's rather far down a PoE list for you? Same question with regards to Spiffeh. I don't really place any faith in VCA, which seems to be the main hangup people have about considering that Spiffeh might be scum, so...beyond that, what reason do you have for PoE'ing Spiffeh out of the list? You think TWiE is a vig, rather than a sk who has been setting up for a vig claim, so okay, sure. But, well, somewhere in there you *have* to be wrong. Its basically impossible for there to be only 4 scum, so there has to be at least one other anti-town individual. Who does it seem likely to be, assuming you're right about firebringer?

None, he is on my list

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:31 am

In post 3164, Reasonably Rational wrote:Cephrir, I'm not sure I get what you mean about ninja+watcher+no tracker being kind of tacky? And how do you know there isn't a tracker?

If you give the scum a ninja, the watcher is sort of pointless unless there's another role that cares about that.

I don't know that, but if someone claimed tracker right now, I would probably lynch them.

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:33 am

In post 3165, Cephrir wrote:
In post 3164, Reasonably Rational wrote:Is it just that pisskop is so extremely town, or is it that he's rather far down a PoE list for you? Same question with regards to Spiffeh. I don't really place any faith in VCA, which seems to be the main hangup people have about considering that Spiffeh might be scum, so...beyond that, what reason do you have for PoE'ing Spiffeh out of the list? You think TWiE is a vig, rather than a sk who has been setting up for a vig claim, so okay, sure. But, well, somewhere in there you *have* to be wrong. Its basically impossible for there to be only 4 scum, so there has to be at least one other anti-town individual. Who does it seem likely to be, assuming you're right about firebringer?

None, he is on my list

sorry, what i mean is spiffeh is on my list

i definitely think pisskop is town

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:34 am

i could of course be wrong, i just happen not to be wrong

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:36 am

That is currently my opinion, yes.

I should probably iso them and stuff to firm up my opinion, though.

Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:39 am

In that I feel like 50% of their posts I've just disagreed with all of their logic, and I am the arbiter of what is objectively correct, as everyone knows.

I'm kinda rethinking the bulletproof claim making them town. Coug does like his town bulletproofs though, IIRC.

Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:41 am

(If you're hoping to see much in the way of logic behind my arguments right now, there probably isn't any to be had. My gut's been doing pretty well this game, and my interest in mafia in general is barely a thing right now)

Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:12 am

In post 3176, Reasonably Rational wrote:If that's the main reason why you think we're town, Ceph, it's a very bad reason.

It is kind of the opposite

Yes I am contradicting myself

Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:30 am

his game entry posts and aggressiveness struck me as a town sort of laziness

definitely might be a strong word but yeah

i also saw a scum game of his recently and found him pretty easy to read

Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:31 am

In post 1002, pisskop wrote:I isoed MM. Bus.

vote: MM

this is a fun post

Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:10 pm

In post 3187, Reasonably Rational wrote:which member of said town bloc we are and have been most suspicious of.

how does this turn out to mean like every living player

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:45 am

In post 3191, Heartless wrote:
In post 3181, Cephrir wrote:
In post 1002, pisskop wrote:I isoed MM. Bus.

vote: MM

this is a fun post

twie's the only one still alive who didn't vote monkeyman

anything else?

you seem to be expecting me to try and have reasons even though i just said i wasn't gonna do that D:

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:47 am

yes rr that was super obvious as you've expressed suspicion of me all game

wait no you haven't

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:43 am

VOTE: Firebringer

We can do this the hard way if you want but we're definitely doing it

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:46 am

In case we have a town flip today, we also need to decide in advance whether we want to vig vedith

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:47 am

I'm going to pretend that isn't a suspicious popcorn possibly born of your mafia team suspecting me of having a power role

Actually I'm not going to pretend that

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:47 am

Oh, lol, I got my games mixed up...

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:47 am

Vanilla townie

Spiffeh

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:55 pm

i don't know why we had to do mod meta to figure out the obvious vig who made nothing but viglike kills was a vig

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:04 pm

i thought we had something special

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:05 pm

VOTE: RR

I hope performer's claim was even worse than it looked

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:07 pm

In post 3254, Spiffeh wrote:TWIE kills Firebringer tonight.

TWIE does not kill anyone tonight, do you understand math?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:08 pm

i'd rather hash it out as a group

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:28 am

We're just gonna go with that...?

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:28 am

When we could no lynch, lynch tomorrow, and kill?

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:29 am

I guess that doesn't make any difference if the mafia wincon wording is standard

But

=/

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:53 am

because he isn't potential scum

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:55 am

of course they no killed, they are pretending not to exist

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:57 am

the only counterpoint to be made to that is that it seems like a really bad play

which makes me doubt everything of course, but...

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:57 am

assuming the last mafia member is you or spiffeh, pisskop, you can't win without a twie lynch today, so i find it suspicious that you are pushing it and spiffeh is not

Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:01 am

make me

Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:02 am

Nobody Special, who was Bradley Hall, the driver of a 2015 Porsche 911 and a compulsive vigilante, has been charged with murder on Night 5.

Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:18 am

VOTE: No Lynch

Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:22 am

Scenario 1: Lynch TWIE. Scum kill. We are now at 3 player lylo, probably sans heartless. I don't like this situation, because I'm not sure which of you two is scum.
Scenario 2: No lynch. Scum kill. We are now at 3 player lylo, only TWIE is alive instead of Spiffeh or pisskop. Lynch surviving possible scum. Win.
Scenario 3: No lynch. Scum don't kill. Lynch the surviving player in Spiffeh/pisskop and win, or, no lynch and shoot that person, and if scum still don't kill, TWIE must be an SK, and we lynch him.

Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:26 am

Explain what's wrong with 3304, then

Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:01 am

I think it's less likely than pisskop or spiffeh being mafia, so i want to take advantage of the ability to kill both of them

also, see scenario 3, if there's no mafia and he's an sk, we still win

Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:03 pm

Then I'm going to push harder to not lynch twice today, since evidently town loses if we do that

Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:04 pm

Please tell me how getting to lynch two players is worse than getting to lynch one player

Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:04 pm

I would rather be vigged than lynch twie.

Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:53 am

In post 3317, TheWayItEnds wrote:
In post 3304, Cephrir wrote:Scenario 1: Lynch TWIE. Scum kill. We are now at 3 player lylo, probably sans heartless. I don't like this situation, because I'm not sure which of you two is scum.
Scenario 2: No lynch. Scum kill. We are now at 3 player lylo, only TWIE is alive instead of Spiffeh or pisskop. Lynch surviving possible scum. Win.
Scenario 3: No lynch. Scum don't kill. Lynch the surviving player in Spiffeh/pisskop and win, or, no lynch and shoot that person, and if scum still don't kill, TWIE must be an SK, and we lynch him.

I think you got 1 right.

the problem with 2 is that if we miss tomorrows lynch and the last scum and i kill each other at night, everyone is dead and i dont know who wins that.

i think scenario 3 is more likely because it doesnt make sense for scum to put us to 3 man lylo instead of 4 man given that im compulsive unless they wanted to kill me. but if we lynch whichever of spiffeh/pisskop is still alive and then i shoot someone, scum can shoot someone or not, theres only 2/1 person alive after night 2. theres no way to lynch me if im an SK.

realistically if we're going to lynch me i think it has to be today.

but then if we do 1 its just me + heartless dead lylo.

where as if we dont we get to kill both piss and spiffeh?

i dunno whats better. im good with either.

The only way we miss tomorrow's lynch is if you decide to lynch me. I'd still rather have a possible draw than see this scumteam win.

I realize that sceanrio 3 could leave us with no way to lynch you, but I don't think you're an SK, especially if the mafia proves itself to exist.

I don't understand why heartless appears to be okay with themselves dying and going into lylo with pisskop spiffeh and myself, as they've shown no particular inclination to believe i will make the right choice (and I probably wouldn't) and also claim to suspect me (when it doesn't really seem like I would be lynched in that scenario?)

Why are you good with either :S

Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:54 am

In post 3318, pisskop wrote:We arent no lynching, and we dont need your permission to make the right move.

You can keep declaring I'm wrong, or you can try to actually engage me. I have yet to hear a counterpoint to 3304. I don't think TWIE is about to vote for himself, so you quite possibly do need my vote to lynch him.

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:07 am

And what fucking point would that be

Can you articulate a fucking counterargument, or are you just going to sit there and keep calling me stupid

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:09 am

Well, now I know who's scum, at least. You had better kill me tonight.

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:11 am

I don't understand why you're being so fucking hostile.

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:58 am

And disagreeing that he should be lynched isn't allowed because of what exactly? Because you've decided to restrict your thinking to inside a box?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:01 am

I'm not talking about whether you have the support. I'm talking about why you think that's the best course of action.

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:02 am

How on earth does the mafia benefit from his staying alive? THe mafia should be terrified of his staying alive, even if he's an SK

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:13 am

You haven't laid it out well enough, because I don't understand what your point even theoretically is

Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:18 pm

Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:15 am

I would like to get input from heartless before we get a hammer

Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:24 am

Mmk. I'm still gonna make someone else hammer.

Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:58 am

Oh fine

VOTE: TWIE

Yall suck tho

Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:59 am

(Even if I turn out to be wrong, I maintain that this play is incorrect)

Sun Nov 29, 2015 11:30 am

My emotions had nothing to do with a play's correctness or incorrectness.

Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:57 pm

In post 3384, Antihero wrote:as much shit as i gave ceph, he played a really good game.

sorry man.

Thanks. You were great, and I can deal with it

Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:32 pm

I don't like talking about blacklisting because it feels like kind of a juvenile thing to talk about, but that doesn't stop me from having one in my head.

Mon Nov 30, 2015 5:53 pm

I can't tell if you're joking

Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:36 am