A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Cerberus v666]

VOTE: shotty

Anyway, I think there's a good chance it could be LYLO and we should mass claim today. You all know I'm an innocent child miller--Roxie Hart from Chicago.

Pistachion....there's 12 alive and 3 dead scum. Lylo seems implausible. Mass claiming isn't the worst idea, but I'm not sure it's necessary in the relatively strong position town is in from my point of view.

[Cerberus v666]

Yeah. Mobile post, not gonna waste my typing just because you already said it..

[Cerberus v666]

...
Dwlee flipped beloved prince. That skips the night. THAT'S WHAT THE ROLE DOES

Holy SHIT you guys are not fucking paying attention.

I am. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Anyway, I want to lynch shotty because he mostly ignored Dwlee (except light defense in a few interactions) and he doesn't have any points in his favor.

But...he replaced TO/talah, who was like the towniest person here.

[Cerberus v666]

TPP: why aren't you continuing your analysis?

[Cerberus v666]

I read everything, just been distracted.

-Cerb

[Cerberus v666]

current endgaming stuff

The Pied Piper lynched
SirCakez NKed
Mirhawk lynched
dramonic vig tonight
Marquis
Flubbernugget lynched in f3
Cerberus v666 lynched
Malakittens Nked
itlepip Nked
pistachi0n Nked
drmyshottyizsik
podoboq lynch today

Wtf is this?

[Cerberus v666]

You forgot that I'm never gonna get lynched yo, even playing a shit game like this one..:p Recommend assumption of vig or me being in the endgame.

[Cerberus v666]

Dram: claim your musical. Nothing else.

[Cerberus v666]

Not the specific character, just the musical of origin.

[Cerberus v666]

Man, love that musical so much.


And ah well, you're not off the hook. :p

Sircakez, how about you? Musical?

And itlepip?

We're there any other suspicious people who haven't claimed their musicals yet?

[Cerberus v666]

Are you implying I'm suspicious?

You're in the pool dram, and it's a shallow one.

[Cerberus v666]

I like you cerb.
Shame you've been pretty wrong this game.

I actually haven't been wrong yet. Closest to wrong was advising people that skybird is mislynch bait for her style, which is true regardless of whether or not she was scum this game.

I wanted Axel dead and he was scum.

You guys keep killing my town reads which have all been accurate.

The only scumspect I have left is Mirhawk, and his alignment is unknown, but I found TPP's points moderately compelling. *shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

You think TPP is town.
You've been pretty wrong this game.

I could be wrong about that, sure. I can see a universe where scumtpp pushed dwlee expecting themselves to flip, and thus help keep him safe since his role was an extremely painful one to lose to a lynch.

Unfortunately, that isn't the same world where Dwlee unvotes them because he's their partner and sees a chance to back away from his tunnel.

[Cerberus v666]

What podo said. I don't care about testing shottys claim. I was hoping to remove one of the potential candidates for today's lynch from the pool.

[Cerberus v666]

Why? Do you believe it would confirm him as town? Why?

[Cerberus v666]

...

You say yourself why it's NAI. Flavor+rolecop is a very simple explanation that let's him claim to just be a flavor cop.

It's a dumb thing to care about testing. Besides, the people I'm asking are the questionables. If we're going to test him, best to do so on the people who are more likely to be town.

[Cerberus v666]

Don't be obtuse. You care about testing his flavor copping ability. I care about what that flavor is. Those are two different things.

[Cerberus v666]

Yeah. Targets+results should be somethng the mod can give you.

[Cerberus v666]

I missed you claiming any results. Was that result correct?

[Cerberus v666]

Or rather, confirmed by Mirhawk to be true?

[Cerberus v666]

...did mirhawk claim any flavor?

[Cerberus v666]

*sigh* okay, 1) did mirhawk claim before shotty chose his targst? 2) did shotty announce mirhawk flavor, before it was claimed?

[Cerberus v666]

I expect there to be two anti-town roles remaining in this game. I expect those roles to both be mafia.

I haven't thought much of pips plan at all.

[Cerberus v666]

Just a reminder to anyone who is considering relying on the vigs shots working: We have a night where they didn't shoot, and cause to suspect 1)ascetics, and/or 2)roleblockers(I'm referring to shotty's lack of results for his investigations). It's not unreasonable for us to assume that scum know exactly who the vig is because they feel like they blocked them on N2.

Of course, the game also does have a 1 shot triggered bulletproof, and an x shot passive bulletproof(both of whom were PRIME targets for being shot by a town aligned player on N2), so it's entirely possible that scum have no idea who the vig is.

Actually, let's think about this. Shotty's slot investigated two night in a row, and was blocked both nights.

Pistachion, you aren't an ascetic, right?

And Axelrod wasn't an ascetic either.

So, both of those failures must have come from roleblocks. Shotty's predecessor had claimed to be a flavor cop on D2.

So, possibilities:

1) Scum did not believe they were a flavor cop, and kept blocking them.
2) They're lying scum(but why would they fake claim flavor cop? it's easily testable. This part of their claim MUST be true, but it may not be the entirety of the claim)
3) They were roleblocked one night by scum, and jailkept the second. Or perhaps simply jailkept both nights, BY TOWN, trying to save them. The question that arises then is...JOAT BP, bodyguard, jailkeeper, AND passive BP? Is that reasonable in a game which apparently has two sources of kills? Scum had 1 shot strongman, so...maybe?
4) They were directly roleblocked one night, and a global roleblock of some sort happened the other.

Do we have any preexisting claims of actions taken on N2?

@podoboq: You are wrong. Conftown is not more qualified to make any decision. We simply know that their decision will be motivated with towns best interests in mind 100% of time, rather than the 75%(not 50%!) of the time a randomly selected slot would be town.

Also, Itlepip: you do realize your entire roles value has been compromised, yes? By outing that you're a bodyguard, scum will simply block you(which is something we have evidence of them doing) and just kill whoever they want? You need to remove the assumption that you'll die before the end game from your equations.

@Rob13: What can you tell us about how Skybirds Kingmaker ability functioned? She selected someone, and that individual presented us with the only option to lynch? Were there any restrictions on who she could target? What can you tell us about Dwlee's beloved prince modifier? The wiki says princess skips the next day phase. How did Dwlee's role function? Was the NEXT phase skipped, or was the next NIGHT skipped every time? Did it only trigger off lynches, or did it trigger off kills as well?

I'm deep into spec territory here now, sorry, my mind has kinda kicked into gear as I realized we have all this fucking information and people are just sitting around with their thumbs up their asses. I'm just trying to determine scum power levels here. Depending on how Rob13 answers these questions, there are wildly differing levels of power presented by scum.

[Cerberus v666]

@Rob13: What can you tell us about how Skybirds Kingmaker ability functioned? She selected someone, and that individual presented us with the only option to lynch? Were there any restrictions on who she could target? What can you tell us about Dwlee's beloved prince modifier? The wiki says princess skips the next day phase. How did Dwlee's role function? Was the NEXT phase skipped, or was the next NIGHT skipped every time? Did it only trigger off lynches, or did it trigger off kills as well?

I can tell you that a Kingmaker selects a single player and that person controls which player dies during the following day phase. I can't answer anything else in this post; these details would be contained in the players' role PMs.

....

Seriously? You can't tell us how a flipped role functioned?

...I care even less about this game now. I didn't know that was possible.

[Cerberus v666]

Okay, that's a lie, I don't not care, but that's extremely annoying. What's the point of flips if we still have to guess about what it actually means??

[Cerberus v666]

Mechanical difference between vig who doesn't claim until the time when the plan calls for them to get lynched, an SK, and a vig who claims right now instead of at the appropriate time: The vig who claims right now doesn't have a chance of getting night killed.

My first thought about the matter.

[Cerberus v666]

I need to look back over the game. I'm positive there were a number of people who stated things about how the vig shouldn't claim at some point, I just need to identify who changed their mind and find out why.

If any of you were the ones who changed your minds about the subject, please share. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

I don't think we were a likely vig target on Day 2 because of the role we played in Skybird's lynch. People didn't start getting annoyed with us until Day 3. I think Flubber was a likelier vig target; he was very widely scumread at that point. As for whether an SK would find us threatening, it would depend on who the SK was and what our read on their slot was at the time.

Dram, Mala, and Cakes are the only people who haven't claimed. Dram and Cakes have both claimed not vig. If Mala also claims not vig, then the vig is an SK who has been trying to look like a vig. I am not sure I'd believe another protective role in this setup, but I am not the head that is good at setup spec.

I also haven't claimed.

In addition(and I mentioned this forever ago, like, back on D2 when the no kill night happened), non-consecutive and limited shots are common vigilante variants. I've also seem similarly restricted SK's(although generally in games more complex than this one, with a higher power level on the SK overall).

The lack of kills could easily mean less than everyone is believing it means.

For the record, I'm currently inclined to believe there is a jailkeeper in the game, and one of the bulletproof claims is scum. It seems the most probable explanation for shotty receiving a no result two nights in a row, one of which occurred on the same night no kills happened. Feels extremely probable a town jailkeeper protected shotty, denying him his investigation, and protecting him from the kill. BP scum also fits in with my expectation that there is a vigilante rather than a SK in this game, AND spec wise, jailkeeper+BG meshes nicely because the two don't actually interact in any sort of positive reinforcing fashion. If the jailkeeper protects the BG, it results in no protection, unlikely if a doctor protects the bodyguard, where it protects everyone.

So, TPP or Flubber are scum.

Damnit dram, you may have been right. :-/

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, AND the lack of protection on shotty/his success occurred when he replaced into the slot, and there was no longer someone extremely obvtown and attempting to solve the game there.

[Cerberus v666]

Wait who's the other bulletproof claim aside from TPP?

Flubbernugget is a JOAT, BP/Neighborize/investigative(claimed as a tracker, but hasn't been used yet). They claimed to have used the BP on N2. Well, TPP claimed they used it on N2, and they did not deny TPP's claim.

[Cerberus v666]

*sigh* if TPP is scum I'll be really fucking sad, but it makes so much fucking sense.

Except for getting Dwlee lynched. That doesn't make sense.

It's a super strong play to auto win the game though? Dwlee's role was damaging enough when lynched that bussing him is suicidal, but they were super close to dead when they suggested it so that could simply be distancing from their flip.

:-/

[Cerberus v666]

I should explain what I mean by auto-win the game.

TPP!scum pushes Dwlee while at L-2 or whatever.

Dwlee flips: OMG DWLEES ROLE HURT SCUM SO BADLY TPP must be town. Oh, and they claimed BP, so the vigilante won't shoot at them, AND it explains why a scum team that has already been denied TWO kills this game wouldn't risk shooting at them, so they live until the end game and win.

TPP flip: Wifom forever, it must have just been OMGUS on dwlee/they wouldn't push their teammate as the mislynch to save themselves RIGHT? So he must be town.

[Cerberus v666]

I'm 100% okay with lynching flubbernugget.

I'm 10% okay with lynching TPP.

I need to reconcile the previous thought process with what I know of Nacho and Plot.

[Cerberus v666]

It's a valid point dram. I'm not sure we live in a scum RB world (has anyone else reported being roleblocked??), but if we do, it's a reasonable concern.

Plus, as I said before, the chances of scum shooting the vig and saving town the mislynch go down to zero if they claim while there's a general thread sentiment that they must be lynched for safety.

[Cerberus v666]

No universe exists in which killing a hated lurksack mislynch bait player is a bad shot.

[Cerberus v666]

Anyways, so.

Lynch TPP, if town shoot dram, lynch flub? I think that sounds reasonable.

How do you feel about flub dramonic?

[Cerberus v666]

...

Shotty is the flavor cop.

Neither cakez or mala have claimed their musical.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, I don't believe flubber is lying about his role. He's just a scum JOAT, if he's scum. *shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

Anyways, so.

Lynch TPP, if town shoot dram, lynch flub? I think that sounds reasonable.

How do you feel about flub dramonic?

I am not adverse to this, but I think it would be simpler for the vig to rub out Flubber right off if Piper flipped town. He may or may not be bulletproof though so eh.

Also, who would the vig shoot if Piper flipped scum? Podo?

Yes, dumb to take an announced shot at claimed BP.

Dunno. Cakez/podo? Me? :p

Cerb - informed townie

Man I had totally forgotten about that.

I'm assuming the flavor in question hasn't been claimed yet seeing as how he's still flavor hunting.

Flavor in question has not been claimed, I'm starting to think one of our fucking already confirmed people has it so it's worthless at this point.

Also, TPP: I'm very careful in my wording, especially when talking about alignment confirmation. I said I have cause to believe the individual sharing my flavor is town because of a mechanical interaction, NOT that the mod told me they are town.

Interpret that how you will.

[Cerberus v666]

By Cerb's role, I mean what he's informed of and his flavor

Oh? You should take a guess.

[Cerberus v666]

With TPP's analysis, dram and podo are still the best votes for today (by POE.)

If there really is a vig who doesn't want to claim, why is a vig shot bad? Best case scenario, scum gets shot, worst case, it helps with POE.

Is my analysis flawed pistachion, with regards to the likely existence of a town aligned jailkeeper as the explanation for shotty's repeated power failures?

[Cerberus v666]

And the implications of that?

[Cerberus v666]

Why would a town Jailkeeper jail TO night 1 and 2?

Because he was obvtown as fuck and a likely nk target?

[Cerberus v666]

A shitty investigative? Yes, you jail keep that still. Pistachion thought conftown waa a ghost, no reason to protect her at that stage.

[Cerberus v666]

? I just told you guys there's scum within a very small pool. *shrug* You should lynch in that pool.

[Cerberus v666]

Seriously it hurts my soul how inconsistent your shit is when you CANNOT be scum =_=

[Cerberus v666]

Flubber is a pretty crap lynch ftr.

Elaborate.

Remember, in the universe I'm contemplating, the choice is between TPP and Flubbernugget.

You've been attempting to get TPP lynched forever.

Why is flubber crap?

Also, does anyone care enough about shotty's ability to not have everyone flavor claim now so we can just resolve this bullshit thing that I have? Other than cakez, that is?

[Cerberus v666]

So where are Itle and Flubber since they're apparently missing but not PoEd?

They're not PoE'd. I'd still rather today's lynch be within the 4.

oh, you PoE'd someone else in the last few hours?

Flubber is a pretty crap lynch ftr.

Elaborate.

Remember, in the universe I'm contemplating, the choice is between TPP and Flubbernugget.

You've been attempting to get TPP lynched forever.

Why is flubber crap?

Also, does anyone care enough about shotty's ability to not have everyone flavor claim now so we can just resolve this bullshit thing that I have? Other than cakez, that is?

Flubber's abilities sync up with flipped scum countereffects. Tracker -> ninja, bp -> strongman, neighbor -> prince, assuming no daytalk.
Im also comparatively super skeptical about a "limited shot bulletproof" claim so that helps.

We had an unlimited watcher flip. That point is shit.
x shot BP and a bodyguard and an IC all work together to justify a strongman.
The neighbor>prince connection is super weak.

Is that all you have? Extremely poor setup spec when there are other claims already expressed that counteract all the JOAT points you've made?

[Cerberus v666]

Also its my bday.
Do you really wanna make me sad on my bday?

Happy bday!

You should go do fun stuff that isn't mafia.

And you should separate your emotions from mafia, so that way no matter what happens in the game, you won't be sad on your bday because of it.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, for the record, scum Jailkeeper is actually a thing I'm a little more open to after some contemplation right now...but it kinda depends on how the stupid fucking prince thing worked.

If it was purely NU, then a scum jailkeeper could have worked to keep dwlee from ever getting shot until they needed him to use a strongman shot.

If, however, it was PU if he died during the night, then the scum jailkeeper loses that additional benefit.

[Cerberus v666]

sorry I got in a car accident last night, hospital post, will be out later today sorry.

Holy shit, I'm sorry to hear that and glad you're well enough to be getting out today.

[Cerberus v666]

Resetting my timer

VOTE: Flubbernugget

[Cerberus v666]

85% you're all mislynching here.

[Cerberus v666]

Could be wrong though. :p

So final scum are tpp/podo dram?

[Cerberus v666]

And one of them is a sk?

[Cerberus v666]

Dram, I was saying you think final scum a re tpp/podo.

[Cerberus v666]

Hmm. Little theoretical here.

Vig/sk shoots at every chance. Assuming two anti-town roles remain because this isn't a dram game.

N5: 9:2
D6: 7:2
N6: 6:2
D7: 4:2 (mylo, if at least one shot hits town and there is 2groupscum, rather than a sk+1 groupscum.) If a vig, a mislynch on this day makes it 3:2 going into night, 2:2 and a loss the next day, so 50% chance of a shot this night giving town one more chance. A second mislynch on not the vig means the game ends in a draw.)

Town gets 2 lynches, and 2 vig shots. 4 town controlled kills, two less useful than lynches.
Vig only has one shot left (I have to assume any vig remaining has at least one shot remaining. Otherwise there's little cause to not claim because they're basically VT (other than attempting to draw a NK, which the current town sentiment ensures will never happen if they claim cleanly).

N5: 9:2
D6: 8:2
N6: 7:2
D7: 6:2
N7: 5:2
D8: 4:2 (mylo)
N8: 3:2 ( vig shoots for maximum chance of hitting scum to give town one more mislynch chance)

3 lynches, 1 vig shot.

Odd night/non consecutive vig

N5: 9:2
D6: 7:2
N6: 6:2
D7: 5:2
N7: 4:2 (a shot on this night gives a 40% chance of hitting scum, but loses the game if the vig is wrong. Probably shouldn't do it)
D8: 3:2(lylo)

3 lynch, one shot. 2 lynch, 2 shot if the vig shoots on N7 with that 40%

Versus

N5: 9:2
D6: 8:2
N6: 7:2
D7: 6:2
N7: 5:2
D8: 4:2 ( mylo)
N8: 3:2

3 lynches only. So, I *think* any vig should shoot at most once more at the latest time possible? Like N7/8 . Assuming no further scum flips before then.

None of this takes into consideration the conftown being conftown. I recommend whoever is the vig plot all this out and figure out what's optimal in terms of forcing scum into a position where they're facing off against as many or more conftown than there are lIving scum, if such is possible, and plan/act appropriately.

And yes, this is all assuming you're mislynching podo, because you are. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Only the last couple are. The first scenario, that of unlimited shots, is most likely if we're looking at a sk, and I treat it as such.

Only difference between vig vs sk is on that last day, town is either in a Kingmaker position choosing between the sk and the scum, or they have a chance at lynching the last scum/sk...or they might cross kill one another, leaving town victorious.

The rest of it all works out the same basically.

[Cerberus v666]

That's because you have no concept of balance.



<3

[Cerberus v666]

Yep.

Also, I'm the vig.

Took the shot at TPP because if they were town, it would mean a no kill, which is what we needed, and if they were scum and lying about being BP, then, well, they're dead, which is also what we needed.

And yes, of course, sircakez is the motherfucker who had my flavor. I'm obviously Mr. Hyde, and we enabled one another.

[Cerberus v666]

So sad that I was wrong about TPP though. I was hoping to have a game of perfect reads, but alas, it wasn't to be.

[Cerberus v666]

Weird decision on their part to target shotty two nights in a row.

Let's have some claims, shall we.

Mainly, I'm looking for anyone else in this game who had the ability to block someone+blocked shotty on N1. Since it's unlikely scum had two roleblockers, the real question is whether or not someone else blocked him, or if they're simply scum who knew whenever TPP(who was under some degree of pressure from D1) flipped, it would exonerate their lack of results.

[Cerberus v666]

Mala has moved into 99% town, btw, There aren't enough slots left for groupscum for there to be a marquis/mala pairing going on, which is something I've been suspicious of for quite some time. Marquis could still be scum, of course, but if I recall correctly he's spearheaded pushes against scum? I may be wrong though.

shotty, why didn't you check a conftown who hadn't claimed yet?

[Cerberus v666]

Wish cakes had claimed yesterday so we'd know his N2 target, since obviously the no kill was from a doc save, not a town jailkeep on shotty.

Makes things look even worse for that slot, actually. :-/

BG+IC with an odd night enabled doctor. Does Itlepips claim make sense? It might not, actually. :-/

Did Dram ever claim?

[Cerberus v666]

Flubbernugget: who did you track, and what was your result?

[Cerberus v666]

Itlepip, claim your targets for each night please. (Realized my statement above about cakez' lack of targeting information was ambiguous. Because itlepip is around, cakez may have protected him on N2, which means his target was the target, or cakez target may have simply been correct.

[Cerberus v666]

Ask Rob13 to confirm

[Cerberus v666]

Also, you're missing 2 action submissions. We're on D6.

[Cerberus v666]

After all the pushing TPP Mirhawk did, pistachion?

[Cerberus v666]

Ah yes, duh. I remember that. I was happy because I was hoping to hide my odd nightness so I could draw a roleblock tonight.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, you're welcome Dram.

[Cerberus v666]

Eh, game will be over before then.

[Cerberus v666]

Mirhawk <<< VT
dramonic <<< unclaimed
Marquis <<> cop
Flubbernugget <<< Joat.
Cerberus v666 <<< vig
Malakittens <<< 99% town, only scum if godfather
itlepip <<< BG
pistachi0n <<< IC
drmyshottyizsik <<> flavor cop.

So, suspects are mirhawk, dram, flub, pip, shotty, cerb.

Flub, pip, shotty, and myself are the most reasonable lyches for today.

[Cerberus v666]

Pfft, you can't only quote me there dram, and ignore the later posts where I put together the exact scenario in which what set of events happening makes sense(consideration. For which is the same reason why I ended up shooting them).

And this will make it like, once, that you've seen me be SUPER wrong.

And ugh.

Seriously, both you guys did things that are completely useless?

[Cerberus v666]

Pip is itlepip flubbernugget. He's definitely on the table.

Mirhawk and dram get some space because of their positions regarding TPP. They're in the pool, but not priorities.

Mala is town unless she's a godfather, and marquis is town unless he has a huge fucking pair, fake claiming cop on D3.

[Cerberus v666]

He didn't do much bussing, really? He laid out a case at L-1 and everyone just hopped on.

[Cerberus v666]

He didn't do much bussing, really? He laid out a case at L-1 and everyone just hopped on.

Do you think any other scum were on that wagon?

Good question! Were you on that wagon?

[Cerberus v666]

Vote Count #4.10:

The Pied Piper:

Dwlee99, dramonic, Mirhawk, Marquis, drmyshottyizsik, podoboq (6)

Mirhawk:

itlepip, Flubbernugget (2)

podoboq:

Cerberus v666 (1)

SirCakez:

pistachi0n (1)

Cerberus v666:

The Pied Piper (1)

drmyshottyizsik:

SirCakez (1)

Not Voting:

Malakittens

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA:

SirCakez until 5/30.
Marquis until 5/31.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-05-29 21:40:00)

Vote Count #4.11 (FINAL):

Dwlee99:

The Pied Piper, Cerberus v666, Flubbernugget, pistachi0n, Malakittens, Marquis, drmyshottyizsik (7)

The Pied Piper:

Mirhawk, podoboq (2)

Mirhawk:

itlepip (1)

drmyshottyizsik:

SirCakez (1)

dramonic:

dramonic (1)

Not Voting:

Dwlee99

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA:

SirCakez until 5/30.
Marquis until 5/31.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-05-29 21:40:00)

[Cerberus v666]

Well, the early cop claim is a significant thing, but only if Rob13 isn't known for making games without cops.

[Cerberus v666]

but i'm really really town and so is mala.

i think it's within itlepip, cerb, and flubber? pretty sure

I'm inclined to agree. This is assuming I'm a serial killer though, yes? Because I was tracked to the scum kill last night, and they were the jailkeeper, so....obviously not scum (only real argument that I'd be scum with them would be if I were the protective on the scum team...since they were it, I most likely made the kill).

So we have 3 lynches, and then we're in lylo. I should be killed then in case I'm a serial killer, I believe. Maybe the day before.

Shotty is a possibility as well, honestly. His lack of results two nights in a row is super questionable, after having claimed that first day. :/

[Cerberus v666]

I refuse to lynch cerb any later than D7. He's either an sk or a vt at this point anyways.

Pfft. You don't have that much power dram. <3

[Cerberus v666]

I think things, but don't have time. I ll try to post on my lunch break.

Drams right on cerb. The enabler probably also means that without being enabled cerb can't make kills, which would make for a super weak SK. He definitely shouldn't make it to the endgame, but I'm okay with leaving him for now. If we have no kill tomorrow night we should lynch him though.

...


If you have no kill when you've only had multiple kills on odd nights, when I could shoot, and missing kills on even nights, when the flipped doctor worked....that is, when all the evidence which exists supports the claim I've made..you want to lynch me tomorrow. Thereby guaranteeing that scum may, at no cost to themselves, avoid being in the lynch pool tomorrow?

Right now, in 3 lynches, we'll be at 3 alive and lylo. If we mislynch today, and scum don't shoot tonight, and you default to lynching me tomorrow, we still end up at 4 alive and lylo in 3 lynches.

So, scum can skip a shot tonight in order to only have to dodge three lynches rather than 4, following your logic.

So yeah, autolynching me if there's no kill tonight because you think I'm an enabled SK whose enabler is dead, when the pattern of extra kills should show that I'm not even capable of killing tonight when I was enabled, is really dumb.

After two nights of no kills, autolynch me. At that point scum will have given town an extra lynch, so even with the auto lynch on me, town gets the same number of attempts at hitting scum.

[Cerberus v666]

Considering scum haven't shot at any "conf" yet, he might have a point.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, well, that's possible. Flipped doc sorta reduces the likelihood of pip being town, mechanically. Same with our JOAT. So yeah. :/

Hey dram. You should claim. Like now. Cause I think you're the only one left who anyone cares about claiming.

[Cerberus v666]

?

[Cerberus v666]

Welp, a moment of looking at his post history, and it seems something made shotty upset and he is leaving the site.

[Cerberus v666]

So....you're suggesting that even though the jekyll role was clearly enabled, it was actually weakened by my presence, and vice versa? That is, that upon the death of our counterpart, the role got stronger instead of weaker?

[Cerberus v666]

How about jekyll getting weaker when Hyde dies? Triumphing over his uncontrolled half somehow would have made the doctor weaker?

*sigh*

The flavor makes WAY more sense the way it's obviously presented.

Two slots enabling one another, one only works on even nights, the other only on odd nights, one causes an extra kill, one may cause there to be no kills.

It's elegant, not counterintuitive.

[Cerberus v666]

Yep. I only cared about it in my case because it didn't make sense to me for my vigilante thing to be enabled by a town slot that seemed likely to be a protective of some sort, so I figured whoever he was had to be town.

[Cerberus v666]

still here

<3

This makes me happy. Thanks for sticking around.

[Cerberus v666]

Mala, got that vca for us yet? I'm honestly pretty lost right now. :/

[Cerberus v666]

What isn't going to happen ?

[Cerberus v666]

Scum buddies both making BP claims?

[Cerberus v666]

Mainly because I predicted scum within flubbernugget/TPP, and found the scum. :p

[Cerberus v666]

...

Why would anyone like flubber? Tictac was bad and he's not any better. I'm willing to accept him as not a priority though because I do believe in my idea that one if the BP claims waa false.

So, I decided shottys town btw. Thinking the double no results was TPP choosing their targets in a fashion that allowed them to claim being a town jailkeeper. After he was replaced by Shotty, they probably jailkept pistachion/marquis/mala, planning to use dwlee's strongman at some point to get through the protections so when dwlee flipped(after they had claimed) the one discrepancy would be justified and they could coast on that till end game.

Dram, claim.

[Cerberus v666]

Conversion to a neutral survivor means we also don't get to see their original role/alignment?

[Cerberus v666]

Not quite the same logic I used, but yeah. Anyways, so, pool is pip/flub/mirhawk then? Flub/pip are the primary candidates for today.

(Scum bodyguard isn't unreasonable cuz they had some super high strength roles we've seen, ones well worth protecting from me.)

[Cerberus v666]

Oh lol. Silly me. :p

Sorry Rob. I'm dumb.

[Cerberus v666]

Well, with knowledge that the scum team has one protective already, he could have felt safe claiming it. And if there's only one conftown left alive(which will be the case in thr event of a scum bodyguard claim) it means you create the endgame scenario where the conftown must decide if it's more likely scum avoiding killing them to create that 1v1 with the bodyguard claim, or that the bodyguard claim is scum.

[Cerberus v666]

Hmm. What is rhe wig situation again?

[Cerberus v666]

Yep.

Also, I'm the vig.

Took the shot at TPP because if they were town, it would mean a no kill, which is what we needed, and if they were scum and lying about being BP, then, well, they're dead, which is also what we needed.

And yes, of course, sircakez is the motherfucker who had my flavor. I'm obviously Mr. Hyde, and we enabled one another.

I tracked cerb to tpp

[Cerberus v666]

Mala, we're you specifically the backup wig person? Or were you a more general backup with some mechanic that ended up triggering on the wig vendor?

[Cerberus v666]

thanks mir

i'd want to lynch flubber or itle (or shotty? idk)

still wary of cerb's competency allowing him to pull this off as an actual sk

but whatever

VOTE: flubber

<3

Anyways. So reading now that we had people actually say something, I'm reminded that TPP defended Mirhawk pretty hard. They made a whole case about Mirhawk being certainly town, because of the difference in play and investment in this game and their past games, and did this as scum while Mirhawk was focused on getting them lynched.

It makes me think. I've never seen TPP as scum. The dwlee push was certainly a calculated maneuver to either give dwlee some space, or buy themselves some. In that sense, I view it as them protecting their partner, NOT bussing them. It just happens to be that the entire game was on thehr verge of being ready to lynch dwlee. Now,that makes me automatically suspicious of Mirhawk, who is fundamentally in the same position. They were attacking TPP, and TPP did something meant to increase their longevity in the game...it's just that the differing circumstances of the moment necessitated two very different protective actions.

Basically saying I was all naw Mirhawk is probably town, but now that I think about it, the interactions with TPP aren't as favorable as I had originally believed.

[Cerberus v666]

I just wanted that one last shot, then I was going to claim vig, make bs about failed shot on N2, and then hope I could get scum to shoot me.

Probably wouldn't have worked.

I'm sad I was wrong about TPP and Mirhawk. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Also, thank you for the kind word Rob13. Appreciate you running the game for us, even if I did complain about some informational issues you handled differently than I would have hoped.

[Cerberus v666]

I waa shit this game. Because I KNEW I could kill people, I wasn't nearly as invested in trying to convince anyone else of who I wanted pushed, so I didn't bother digging in like normal.

I waa torn between Axel and Mirhawk N3 (which is why I wanted one of the two lynched, so if it waa a town flip I could shoot the other) and honestly had decided to shoot Mirhawk, but forgot to tell Rob13 that I had changed my mind. ;p

The TPP thing was as Rob described, I outlined my reasoning to him in my night action submission.

Pip: I was very close to preferring you over flubbernugget, honestly. Mainly because of the prevalence of protectives. Even night doc, and bodyguard, and even night commuter, just seemed like a but much given that neither of the protectives actually prevented my shots.

[Cerberus v666]

Don't worry Mirhawk. I would have felt like an idiot when TPP flipped if it hadn't been my shot. Instead I only feel a little stupid.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, nice work Marquis on getting yourself to stay alive longer. maximum changes to catch scum or clear more town, damn good work.

[Cerberus v666]

Cakez!! WHY WERE YOU SO SURE THAT I WAS A SERIAL KILLER LIKE WTF MAN OMG AND WHY DID YOU MAKE IT SO OBVIOUS THAT WE WERE THE TWO CONNECTED SLOTS OMG.

[Cerberus v666]

Pfft. Because I would totally, as SK, go on about the person I'm connected to flavor wise when I have evil fucking flavor? Pfffft.

Much disappoint.

Much.
Dis.
A.
Ppoint.

[Cerberus v666]

<3 ilu.

It's okay.

^5, you saved the shit out of the cop. And I killed myself some scumz. So, all in all, our musical did quite well for itself.

[Cerberus v666]

Reading the scum thread.

Plot, I love you, but I am never lynchable. It breaks my heart every time I see one of your charts and I'm categorized incorrectly.

Also, holy shit you guys were sorta carrying your team pretty hardcore. Not to say anything negative about any of your teammates, but your advice was on point and you were always around to provide it.

[Cerberus v666]

You are now second on my list of people I want to roll scum with.

First is Drixx, but that'll never happen cause we'll probably be hydraing. So that makes you the de facto first person on the list Plot!

[Cerberus v666]

I'm not sure how to interpret that comment dram. :-/

pedit: I'm sorry Plot. :-/

[Cerberus v666]

Subject: A Musical Mafia! - Mafia PT

davesaz targetted true ogre last night and saw itlepip and us visit him. he needs to be nightkilled before he can claim this information. davesaz targetted tammy on night 1.

itlepip is a bodyguard.

How did you know this Plot?

[Cerberus v666]

Subject: A Musical Mafia! - Mafia PT

davesaz needs to die tonight. he's the watcher. he saw us and itlepip visit true ogre on night 2. we need to either roleblock marquis or the vig. you're not the likely vig shot.

the flavour cop is useless, it detects what musical we're in and we've been told that our musicals are safe to claim.

flubber needs to track somebody, maybe podoboq.

EXACTLY! I don't understand why you guys blocked TO on N2. :-/ I read it, but it's like, the idea was there's "some value" in blocking him, when in reality his role was useless so there was "no value". :-/

pedit: pfft, you've *never* seen me as scum. You might catch Drixx though, cause Smite gave you a shitload of material to use to catch him. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

Subject: A Musical Mafia! - Mafia PT

@Rob: Please tell podoboq in the dead thread that i'm sorry i got paranoid of him; i was getting cold feet towards the end there thinking he probably wasn't the sk after all but then shotty hammered <3

I have no idea what we should do tonight somebody halp.

Cerb

- is lynchable

dramonic

- is lynchable

shotty

- is lynchable

Flubber

- is our scum friend <3

itlepip

- is a bodyguard so we don't have to target him directly if we don't want to

Malakittens

- is townreading us

Marquis

- nacho thinks he might be the SK and if flubber tracks him then we can lynch him but if he's not the sk then it might be hard to explain why flubber tracked marquis

Mirhawk

- is lynchable

pistachi0n

- is coming to LYLO

Cakes

- is lynchable


ugh this game. at night, everyone seems lynchable, during the daytime, i can't figure out who i want to bring to LYLO.

I don't even know, here are some placeholders:

Flubber tracks Marquis
Piper kills Malakittens
Piper jailkeeps Cerberus if we're allowed to do two things at once

Holy shit that night action switch. Wow.

pedit: I'm 99% he claimed to just be a flavor cop on D2? :-/ Might be wrong. Idk, too lazy to go check his ISO.

Amazing how much differently this game would have went if I hadn't hinted at the flavor connection I had going on. It caused you to dismiss the rest of my mentions of vig related things, wholly unintentionally.

[Cerberus v666]

Subject: A Musical Mafia! - Mod and Dead PT

Hey Rob. Here are my thoughts.

First of all, I agree with you on Plotinus. They're ridiculously good at covering their bases. But I think in regards to their interactions with us, Nacho really carried. If Plot went solo, I'd have pushed for their lynch way harder. All of the things that I found scummy about their slot I am moderately certain came from Plotinus. Considering how fantastic Plotinus is as scum, my respect for Nacho just went up that much.
I'm glad hiplop and I were right about TPP/Tictac/Axel and I think that town is going to win this game no sweat. Who knows- maybe Dwlee will pull a Cyberpunk. It's totally possible. I hope that our voice doesn't get lost in the voices of the people that are alive.

And rob, one last thing. You said the we were going to flip out when we saw this thread.
And hell yeah i'm flipping out- where the fuck is Rent?

OMG so true. I was so stoked to see Avenue Q that I totally missed that Rent wasn't represented. WTF yo!

pedit: I'm going to assume it's because Cakez assumed we were a serial killer, therefore he didn't see any problem with an additional protective on towns side.

[Cerberus v666]

Subject: A Musical Mafia! - Mod and Dead PT

It shouldn't matter in the long run I think
No way Flubber survives to LyLo

Also yes the FS lynch was the worst lynch I've ever seen

Also I knew there was no fucking SK! Dram and Podo were like "you don't understand theory". No, you just don't understand that the Vig didn't want to claim ding dongs. And there was a scum RBer like I predicted too.
And Podo buying into TPP's "vig tells" makes me want to strangle him. He was a necessary sacrifice.
Cerb prob deserves a scummy nom post-game.

No I don't. This was a shit game. Seriously. I feel that play was horrendous, and though my shots were good(ish), it doesn't excuse my low level of engagement.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, True Ogre, it was a pleasure playing with you, and I was really sad to see you go. You were basically the only person driving my interest in the game, so after you replaced out and I stopped getting to see the interesting lines you were pursuing, I followed the game even less than before...which isn't to say I didn't follow it, more that I would pop in and refresh to read *this* particular game like twice a game, rather than several times a day(or several times an hour) as is my norm.

Spoiler: @Plotinus

Not directed at me, but...you aren't "just" anything. You're exceptional and impressive as fuck. Please don't convince yourself otherwise.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, one last thing Plot: I know this game is a sore spot, but I'm really interested in knowing...why did you guys claim BP? You were pretty insistent in the mafia PT that you wanted to claim BP(going so far as to say you HAD to get rid of davesaz because he saw you perform a night action, and therefore you couldn't make that claim), but the BP claim really doesn't make sense to me at all.

[Cerberus v666]

love you cerb but yea this game is def not scummy worthy >_>

shouldnt get scummies for "properly playing vig"

For reals tho.

Also sorry I wasn't engaged enough to keep you alive, even though you couldn't comprehend that I KNEW you were town.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, one last thing Plot: I know this game is a sore spot, but I'm really interested in knowing...why did you guys claim BP? You were pretty insistent in the mafia PT that you wanted to claim BP(going so far as to say you HAD to get rid of davesaz because he saw you perform a night action, and therefore you couldn't make that claim), but the BP claim really doesn't make sense to me at all.

I don't know, it was nacho's idea. He said it made sense with the way we'd been playing day 1-2 and also it worked with the plan to claim tictac's action to try to draw the nightkill but it didn't really work.

Gotcha. I mainly ask because the safety net that was there was a good part of why I decided to shoot you, as Rob13 mentioned. I mean, I guess some people are of the mindset that they, as vig, wouldn't want to risk wasting a shot on a bulletproof, but I prefer that a vig shoot at a x-shot bulletproof slot(unless they're conftown via some means), just to remove that late game wifom of "did you claim that just so you'd have a convenient excuse for why you were never killed". I don't think that's something most people know about me, but that particular mindset was a good part of the shot reasoning. Hero vigs are Zero vigs more often than not, so any action that can be taken that mitigates the innate swinginess of a vig role is something I approve of...such as deliberately shooting at a bulletproof claim.

Yeah, those were some impressive shots, Cerb. 2/3rds of your shots were on scum and no one can blame you for shooting Snarky.

They were super town, yeah. We wanted to put them out of their misery because they didn't seem to be having fun but it turned out it was all for show on their end. x.x

Spoiler: @Plotinus

Not directed at me, but...you aren't "just" anything. You're exceptional and impressive as fuck. Please don't convince yourself otherwise.

^this. very much so.
Large, sincere, enveloping hug.

Also, True Ogre, it was a pleasure playing with you, and I was really sad to see you go.

:embarrassed:
Thanks Cerb - I still remember you trying to coerce me to investigate you with a smile every now and then, and now I understand why (and it was probably the best flavour-investigate that could have happened in the game too, so you were very right).

By the same measure don't underestimate yourself either. You killed 40% of the scumteam yourself? I think town was pretty fucked without you doing what you did.

Again, thank you, but there's a level of play I expect from myself, and I didn't reach it this game. I think you guys are right, that town was quite screwed without those shots hitting...but mafia is defined by day play, not night actions, and my day play was severely lacking lacking.

And yeah, I REALLY wanted you to flavor cop me so badly, since it would make it obvious I was claiming one of those two halves, which would give you all sorts of information and speculation about the roles involved, blah blah.

[Cerberus v666]

Well, Axel was definitely going down, but yeah TPP was going to be difficult.

Although I *did* outline exactly what their play was to talk myself into why I shouldn't be considering them town, so if I thought about that more and got myself to actually read and play, a lynch may have been doable.

Eventually.

In Lylo. :/

[Cerberus v666]

Read up till the reads wall, and yep. Shoulda just posted all that in the game instead of spending the time sculpting posts for just you. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Nah, with this town lylo woulda been a Pist lynch, somehow.

Woulda been mala, actually. thats quite realistic.

[Cerberus v666]

Thread temp/situational awareness ftw. It's part of why I'm always so cocky about not getting mislynched, I tend to keep a fairly close eye on that sort of thing(just without actually writing it all down so it's imprecise).

Iso mapping yourself/teammates is super strong and something I hadn't considered. Very good tool for maintaining consistency and ensuring you're actually interacting with everyone enough that you're not making it easy to pick out your partners.

[Cerberus v666]

rob i gotta say i think this game was actually really well balanced

Yah. I can't think of anything I hated about it or that seemed fundamentally broken. The number of protectives when 2/3 of them would never protect against my shot was a little weird, and I'm not sure how to actually evaluate the higher likelihood that the vig shots were successful.

Still, nothing jumps out, and that's a good thing.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh. Something I didn't address, at least not fully.

When I refused to claim vig on D5 in spite of a consensus that I should do so, it was because I had done the math, as it were, and come to the conclusion that it was optimal for me to shoot one more time. I had also noted that since I could only shoot every other night, the game would reach a state where shooting on N7 would have been really stupid...therefore, it was optimal to take my one shot on N5. And since I knew there was a roleblocker of some sort out there, it wasn't worth it to risk losing that shot.

In addition, I still maintain that the optimal time to claim for me would have been the day before LYLO. That is, at the same time when town would have defaulted to automatically lynching me out of SK fears. By doing so, I would maximize the number of chances scum had to shoot me rather than allowing them to ignore me and write me off as a guaranteed paranoia lynch in end game.