Designer Mafia II: Game Over!

[the silent speaker]

So we have two scum left, plus a serial killer or second group, and we're down one cop. I lean toward the serial killer because two three-person families in a game this size seems really a bit much.

Vote: mgm

for no good reason.

[the silent speaker]

All the other fifteen-player games seem to have three-person mafia groups. I kind of assumed it held for this game too, especially since I do see that eleven to four seems a bit unbalanced -- absent other factors, which, you're right, are as likely present as not in a designer game.

I think DS found Scott's reluctance to cast a random vote and stated intent to watch the conversation for a while suspicious. Me, I think Scott's just new to Mafia; the idea that there is value in random votes is kind of counterintuitive until you get used to it. Being a Townsperson rather than Mafia Scum doesn't make him a townsperson and not Mafia scum, of course, but I don't find his comment itself evidence of anything but inexperience.

[the silent speaker]

I think Gurgi was complaining about leading the pack. It seems a little off that he would be grumbling about having a one-vote lead which still leaves him with less than half of a lynch. It smacks a little of being hypersensitive to people accusing him, which seems a bit scummy; it's as if he's aware that being lynched damages his side's chances far out of proportion to the hit the town takes when it loses a townie. He's also seemed a bit off from earlier posts, but not things I can pin down offhand. Still, I make newbie allowances so I will content myself with a

FOS: Lord Gurgi

.

[the silent speaker]

I made the Master Spy.

[the silent speaker]

Vote: BlueSin

. We have

two

scum groups; investigative powers could definitely help the scum. What's more, there's plenty of room for tweaking how detailed the investigations are. What if a scum investigates and is told that (ex.) Lord Gurgi is the Master Spy, a cop role?

[the silent speaker]

Um, silgado, we have two dead people. That usually indicates two kinds of scum. Maybe one of the scum groups has only one member, i.e. a serial killer or some such, but anyway more than one set of people we have to eliminate, and likely they have to eliminate each other too.
But

unvote BlueSin

-- though I still have my eye on you -- and

vote Scott Morgan

. You've already posted more than five times today, and once to tell the mod you had posted -- which could have been done by PM! -- and once more solely to request a vote count. I Do Not Buy this claim.

[the silent speaker]

Silgado, vigs seldom kill on night 1. Anything's possible, I suppose, but by far the most likely is two scum groups.

[the silent speaker]

We should keep on going.

vote: BlueSin

, picking up my most recent suspicion from yesterday who's still alive.

[the silent speaker]

Well, so much for jumpstarting conversation, which was the most important thing I hoped to get from my vote.

i think the discussion is sufficient and we need a lynch now.

More discussion=better. There are virtually no exceptions to this rule, especially not midway through Day 1.
Then you seemed to be dismissive of the possibility that investigative powers could help scum. What is more, you questioned my knowing there are two kinds of bad guy... when we had two night 1 deaths. Silgado and Sinister Overlord did the same thing, silgado even going so far is to misquote me as saying we had two

mafia

groups. Maf/SK is more likely, as two groups of three are six scum out of sixteen, but as I said, a serial killer is a scum group of one for all intents and purposes.
There was also a comment about cults which was phrased funny, but that might have looked off just from general incomprehensibility.
And I must say, you seemed a lot scummier to me yesterday for some reason.

[the silent speaker]

I am very very sorry. I was gone for the second half of this past week, and didn't post in the Vacation thread or anything because I figured it would only be a couple of days and almost all of my games were in night anyway... then I got home much later than expected Friday and had no time to post before the Sabbath.

Mea culpa, mea magna culpa.

Thoughts on BlueSin since my last post:

I think scum have screw up today, lucky for town, vote TSS

His request for me to clarify my vote was perfectly reasonable, but this was not. My reasoning was not crushingly inexorable, but that hardly translates into me being scum screwing up. Particularly as no one else had anything better. His vote for me is also suspect, both because he presented an OMGUS as a reasoned vote and becaus he had, earlier in the post, argued that he couldn't be scum because he voted Scott Morgan; well, BlueSin, so did I, and I provided a reason that no one else had mentioned yet.
Dragon Slayer, placing the fourth vote on BlueSin, said this:

I think his eagerness to lynch Gurgi before a claim warrants some suspicion. But I'm also afraid I find TSS's posts logical and your vote not to be so. It doesn't matter how fast people start a bandwagon during a day if they have a good reason attached to it. Vote Bluesin.

Please explain. From context "you" is Fuldu, but if you are disagreeing with Fuldu why are you following his vote? Also your first two sentences would then seem to contradict each other; if BS "warrants some suspicion" then why is Fuldu's vote illogical?
Silgado posted a long analysis of Fuldu, which makes IMO some interesting points but also overreaches a good deal for some other points; BlueSin immediately likes this analysis and changes his vote. Apparently he wasn't wedded to the "scum screwed up" theory after all...

Well, reread the part you argue about. so sorry if the seventh vote make you so worry, but it is not the lynching vote and I don't think anyone would lynch lord golgi that time.

Why not? Would not mafia be happy to lynch a cop? There is a very good reason people are wary of the one-off vote; put the one-off on carelessly, and the mafia can claim they didn't realize they were the last vote to lynch. I'm thinking that you knew the mafia weren't going to do that because you knew there weren't any left.
After Dragon Slayer jumps a second time to Fuldu's defense (post 244; by the way, hmmm) BlueSin says this:

Well, maybe my mind is crapped or influnced by fuldu from other mafia game(bonus mafia) and that make me convinced of silgado's teory.
Unvote: Fuldu
vote silgado106

So he's convinced that silgado is right... so unvotes the person silgado is voting for and votes silgado. Come again?
Overall I thought BlueSin was slightly scummier than the field two weeks ago. Now he's way ahead.

[the silent speaker]

If Lord Gurgi is faking his role claim, silgado, he made the luckiest guess in the history of the cosmos. And how do you know he wasn't targeted?

Vote: silgado

for trying to get a cop lynched.

[the silent speaker]

Sorry I'm late to daybreak. My home computer went completely kerflooie.

I did indeed get the Gaspode result, and wondered why. I also targeted KingEnigma last night, and while I don't want to reveal too much detail right now it would not have hurt him in the slightest and might have helped.

Lord Gurgi's role looks from the first post much like I wrote it; I was afraid that making it too directly pro-town would make it too powerful. But you'll note that neither is it anti-town; he needed to know everybody's role, not take over. I was worried that letting that slip would make him even more of a target than he already was (since by killing him early, not only could he be eliminated as a threat but he could be made to lose outright) and so kept his win condition secret.

I will have to do some heavy thinking before I post anything of real substance, but I thought I'd clear those little points up, at least.

[the silent speaker]

vote: Mgm.

My main reason is simple: he claimed Silgado had bought ammunition. Clearly silgado the dockish role would have done nothing of the sort.

PopsicleStix has posted exactly twice: once to confirm he was in the game, and once to vote Mgm with no reason given. That was two weeks ago. MOD -- could we get a prod for him please?

[the silent speaker]

It's just simple village shop and I doubt my stock contains test tubes, NMR machines, or whatever it is Norinel uses.

Yet your simple village shop has a permit to sell nitroglycerin?

[the silent speaker]

This Norinel-Fuldu-Mgm thing bemuses me. Mgm finds Norinel apparently innocent but "Huge FOS"es him. Fuldu says Norinel ought to have received information, which Norinel denies. Norinel in turn is voting for Mgm but adds, "I'm not worried about anyone adding the last vote and ending the day [prematurely]." I'm already voting Mgm, so

FOS Fuldu and Norinel

.
The people who aren't voting Mgm at this point are Mgm himself; Fuldu, who has a better-from-his-standpoint target; PopsicleStix, who has yet to post anything that counts; and KingEnigma.

FOS KingEnigma

but my vote stands for now.

[the silent speaker]

Norinel has to be scummy. Setting aside the claimed result on me, which is proof enough for me but not necessarily for you, who else is there? Fuldu is as good as confirmed by events. KingEnigma knows I targeted him for investigation (I was hired by Lord Gurgi). BlueSin is mod-confirmed, and PopsicleStix is cop-confirmed. Therefore, I can only conclude that the three remaining scum (two with Dragon Slayer's group, and one left with Otaku and Scott Morgan's) are Norinel, PeaceBringer and Mgm. Norinel went back and forth on Mgm, the only person to do so, and he was confident the mafia wouldn't leap onto Mgm's wagon and end the day. Why? Because he knew that they were already there! Which means that Norinel is part of Dragon Slayer's group.

Unvote: Mgm, vote: Norinel.

He got your result, Fuldu, but lied about what it was. Even if you choose not to take my word that he was lying, lynching him will still get the more dangerous group down to one member left. (Sure, for all you know lynching me will do the same, but lynching Norinel definitely will.)

Besides, why do you believe Norinel over me? I've also told all regarding your results that came to me, and it's established that what I told was no more and no less than the truth. And Norinel only told what he claims under heavy pressure and then claimed guilty on a person accusing him.

I incline toward Mgm for working together with Norinel. Note that we have two families plus a serial killer, but there were never more than two kills. If the third member of Otaku and Scott's family were inactive, that would explain a lot -- and PeaceBringer joined the game the day before Dragon Slayer died, clearly the work of the Red family.
Vote Norinel. I beg it of you, all of you. You won't be sorry, and I'll be even less so.

[the silent speaker]

@#!% tags...

Unvote: Mgm, vote: Norinel.

[the silent speaker]

But Norinel has way more to gain by lying than I would have. If he can get me lynched, then there are two kills at night, day breaks with five people, two of them allied scum. By lying about me, Norinel can all but win the game.
We have to lynch Norinel. Even if he's telling the truth, which he's not, we stil would have to lynch Norinel because his group would be the dangerous one. If we don't, we will almost certainly lose. Please please please believe me on this.
Aside from Fuldu, only scum are voting for me. Doesn't that tell you something?

[the silent speaker]

First of all -- claim time. I'm one half of the Married Couple; I send in a name, my spouse sends in a name, and if either or both of us sent in the other, both names sent in get protection that night from all kill/block/etc. attempts.

Even if I allow all your clearings, there are four possibles.

Oner of which is me, which tells me you have to be scum. That incidentally is what makes me so sure PeaceBringer is scum too, to answer Mgm's question.

[the silent speaker]

Alas, I found out nothing. But you said two people targeted you. Who was the other?

[the silent speaker]

I don't know; if I did, obviously, all would be too easy. And I'm not told if I guessed right (or my opposite number did).
PeaceBringer's claim looks like so much crap to me. For one thing, Police Dog? Who does he think he's kidding? For another, his role looks suspiciously similar to Fuldu's role. He claims cop but conveniently has no list of results; while we have no blockers, apparently, two supposed investigations on KingEnigma failed. Mine did, for certain, and PB claims to have. How can this be, I ask you, if KingEnigma knows who targeted him and

only two people did

? Someone must have targeted him or me with a blocking role of some kind; if I had been targeted someone would have spoken up, I think, plus no one has claimed blocker, and if someone had targeted KingEnigma, he'd have seen them. Finally, PeaceBringer said,

My role is easily confirmed as long as I have my views sent to a confirmed

bad

guy.

A Freudian slip, no doubt, but it indicates that PB is evil (else he would never have made that particular slip) and a member of the Brown Mafia.
I also find Norinel's non-claim suspiciously vague, like he needs to work the details out still. But no one will be surprised that I find Norinel suspicious.

[the silent speaker]

Curiouser and curiouser. We already have a ninja, and here's KingEnigma claiming to be one. Also, his ability looks rather scummy to me; if he were pro-town, why would he want to block people from finding that out?

[the silent speaker]

Well, I tossed the dice and crapped out. But don't lynch me anyway. Hear me out:

Given:

Fuldu is not scum (not confirmed but very probable).

given:

BS and PBug are not scum (confirmed).

Therefore: one of the following must be true: 1. Of Norinel and PB, at least one is scum (maybe both, and I think both). 2. Mgm and KE are both scum.
I think KE is probably not scum, but there's a better way anyway. If Norinel speaks true, we get two lynches today. Lynch Norinel and PB; one of the brown mafia will buy it, maybe both, or else (in the unlikely event that they are both non-scum) both of the brown mafiosi are exposed. You want the brown mafia gone first as they're larger and more of a threat. Silenzio Crimsone can always be dealt with later.
And now I have exactly zero time. Mod, please don't kill me (even if I get the last vote) until I can make a final post after the Sabbath ends?

[the silent speaker]

Nope, I'm comfortable killing off one side and dealing with the other later.

But by then they'll have a voting bloc. Plus, if Norinel's role does allow a double lynch, we can destroy the whole Brown mafia today anyway by going with him and PeaceBringer.

Mgm, it's to the town's advantage to whittle the scum down in tandem. That way they might kill each other.

Also, vote count?

[the silent speaker]

Do you really want the death of scum to depend on choices of other scum?

Yes.

You ought to be sure by now who the Browns are. Fuldu, PBuG, BlueSin and to a slightly lesser extent KingEnigma are all cleared or as good as; if I had allies, they'd have confirmed my role claim; Norinel is sure to be one of the two (if he weren't, PB could have simply stepped into the roleclaim all ready-made and prettied-up, voted Norinel and been done with it), and the other is either you or PeaceBringer. I'm pretty sure PB is the scum, and the chance that he isn't is one I'm willing to take.

[the silent speaker]

In that case, it's especially to our advantage to lynch Norinel with the first. He'll turn up scum, I'm confident, and then you will be spoiled for choice.

[the silent speaker]

All I wanted was to post "You'll never take me alive! *

opens fire

*" before dying, but

nooo

, you had to lynch me over the holiday. You all suck.