Elemental Trinity: Endgame

[cassielle]

In before counter argument: "AHA she knows what's good for a scum wincon, SCUM!"
Also in before "what happened to prod-dodging, lynch all liars!"
Also also in before "SHOULD BE VOTING TD IF SHE'S SO SURE HE'S SCUM, SCUM"

I'm sick of this bullshit from the scumblock around here.

[cassielle]

It's a hell of a lot fucking better in here than in the PT! This way your scumbuddy momo can't push me if I do decide to give in to your reprehensible push for me to vote without discussion /in fucking LyLo/.

Which I'm not about to do yet /still/ -- let town talk, are you /all/ insane?

p-edit: Yeah, because you have done /such/ a good job of swaying the town all game long. I'd bet you'd conveniently be away when momo decided to push on that logic. No.

[cassielle]

You know, you're probably /right./ I'm not even going to deny that. My pushes were all terrible. I admit that freely.

So why the hell would a lynch on momo be any different? Do you understand how you saying "You should have listened to me, it's your fault we're here" and "vote who you scumread or you are scum" are contra-fucking-dictory?

[cassielle]

Yeah, and so was /voting nancy to L+1/. Are you paying attention at all? Logic has been failing town all game fucking long. Logic got us where we're at. I don't see why /now/ it's suddenly different!

[cassielle]

I believe in world C with a corollary: Town is also terrible. We wouldn't be in 9 slot LyLo if we were any good, after all.

I believe that momo is scum. I also know that me believing a slot is scum and pushing it has lead to a mislynch 100% of the damn time this game. I will wait for others to discuss momo. Period.

[cassielle]

Not quite.

/Me/ relying on logic is a way to /lose/ the game. Somehow, somewhere, I got turned around and I distrust everything I do now.

Other people are unknowns -- but an unknown chance of winning is better than a guaranteed failure. So I want town to lead me, not the other way around.

Even if I didn't scumread you? One slot does not a town make.
Let. Town. Discuss.

[cassielle]

What am I even supposed to do with that kind of answer?

Let. Town. Discuss.

If it's generally agreed that momo is scum by others without my input, then fine, great, wonderful, I will play that vote.

If they prefer a different slot, then I'll go that way.

But I don't trust /individuals/ anymore (that lead to the Transcend lynch, I put too much faith in TGP's view of the game and got tilted), so I won't listen to you.
I don't trust myself anymore (that lead to the nancy lynch), so I won't take actions on my own.
And I don't trust the actions of town when I try and guide them at all (lead to Davesaz), so I won't try to guide town.

So the thing you're supposed to do?

Let. Town. Discuss.

[cassielle]

I hate sheep, and I will never be one.

People can say whatever they want, I give up with you, you are scum to me. Again on pure-logic theory I'd much rather see momo die first, but I'm just done with this shite.

The hilarious thing is before this game, I said the same thing as the bolded. The game's over now, so you can check: Open 672. I was the N1 kill, it's near the end of my ISO when I was arguing with Joey_. (He turned out to be scum.)

I'm not happy with this outcome either, but it's the only one that makes any sense for me to do now, in my perspective.

[cassielle]

I mean, I'm terribletown in LyLo. What are my options here while playing to my wincon?

Hint: they never include doing things without town discussion and consensus.

[cassielle]

It's delaying a win-condition when they can grab it /now/.

If momo is scum, the scum don't want to all pile on right now. This should be obvious: momo starts a wagon. The scum push until a townie jumps on board. Then the last three slots blitzhammer the wagon for a town loss. If they all jump on at once and it sits at L-1, they've outed their /entire team/. Come on.

[cassielle]

I encourage town to look at how people are playing around this momo vote. You should be able to find all the scum here by paying attention to that. The only key distinction is whether you scumread me or momo.

[cassielle]

^False Dichotomy^

Sure, technically you can scumread us both, but then there comes an issue when you look at how people act around the vote.

Give it a shot.

[cassielle]

I don't understand then. There's a slot (technically two, but one is more important) that can never, ever be scum with /both/ of us, but which has to be scum if /either/ of us are scum.

I'd name them but I don't need to have more people dogpiling me with nonsense -- I trust you can figure out the one I'm talking about.

[cassielle]

Or World D. The real world.

momo replaces into a game with 190 pages.

Why, he wants to play.

But nobody is playing so he gets frustrated.

He is town and wants to hunt scum.

So, he places a vote on a scum read.

Ad scum has not hammered because they are inactive.

Info-tell.

"Scum hasn't hammered because they're inactive" means three things.

1: "scum hasn't hammered" -- this part implies that scum wants to hammer. He knows his vote is on town -- in /fucking LyLo/. Why? Scum would never blitzhammer their own, it's outing their whole team and extending the game in /fucking LyLo/. It gives the town a win unless (UNLESS) they are hammering town. Period.
2: "because they are inactive" -- this part implies that he knows how active the scumteam is, /or/ he thinks that scum includes Yume-slot/RachMarie -- an idea which is absurd, as they're the two most widely (and arguably, easily) townread slots in the game.
3: "scum hasn't hammered because they're inactive" -- altogether it implies a third thing: he voted me in order to get scum to hammer my slot. Town never does this unless they unvote the second they can't sit on the F5 key. It's been days. This isn't a defense here, and it's the only reasonable defense for voting a town slot in LyLo.

[cassielle]

Those are my guesses. And you are scum. That is why scum has not hammered.

Ad scum has not hammered because they are inactive.

Huh, that's not what it says you said right here. Damned internet must be on the fritz again, all changing people's statements to things that make them look bad.

Y'know, if /you're/ scum and I'm town -- like, you realize that just as well explains why scum haven't hammered, right? Because all of them would only hit L-1 and it would out their whole team, pulling town back into a guaranteed win? So they don't do that because losing one scumslot and giving the others a chance to recover some towncred in the worst case is the right thing to do?

[cassielle]

Who am I trying to manipulate?
I'm talking to /you/. If you're so sure I'm scum, I'm wasting my time trying to manipulate you, that's a losing battle. If you /are/ scum, well, that's a different story. Still doesn't make it a /leadership/ thing, though -- since I'm only talking to someone who knows why it's such a terrible idea to follow me in the first place, since they've benefitted from my fuckups every step of the way.

And if you mean me talking about the infotell -- that's just pointing out game-advancing information, not making a persuasive argument. Town will decide for themselves whether or not it has merit -- which has been and will be the play book I'm reading from for this day phase and the rest of this game.

[cassielle]

I want to wait for players to check in on the gamestate. I want to hear from RachMarie, Narna, MariaR before the dayphase ends.

[cassielle]

I'd also like to hear back from PeregrineV, while I'm at it.

[cassielle]

I am happy with voting momo but I want to see more from others.

Can you give your thoughts on why momo is a good lynch overall?

[cassielle]

EBWOP: I'm not, for the record, saying that momo ISN'T a good lynch here. I just want original content going into D6.

[cassielle]

I'm just going to put this out there now.

My slot was formerly held by Frozen Angel. Why would Yume give her vote to the FA-slot?
Check the signups thread for this game. They were originally going to hydra.
Check the timing for Yume's initial "heal" and FA's various "big" moments. They don't make sense from an early game dual-scum perspective, not even taking into account WIFOM.
Put simply: I'm more worried about scum!RachMarie than scum!Yume, and I'm not worried about scum!RachMarie.

There's also something else: if you scumread Narna, I can't be scum here. Narna pushed TD or me (vocally preferring TD) when the only sensible focus is me or momo, where he's guaranteed to lose if he doesn't make a move -- or, he's guaranteed to find scum. He didn't take any stance on the momo/me situation while he was making a game-advancing post -- so (IMO) he's probably not town, especially if you assume competence (read near the end of Creature's ISO for why I assume town competence on Narna's part).
But by not taking a real stance on that situation, he gets nothing either way the wagon rolls as scum. He gets no town cred. He gets... well, nothing.

Assume there is one scum in me/momo. If it's momo, by saying it's "cass or TD" he adds weight to momo's cass wagon without actually getting himself tied to any particular position on it. If it's me, by saying it's "cass or TD" he actively misses the easy, obvious mislynch staring him in the face!

So this is certainly SvT. There's WIFOM to consider for you guys, I guess, but it's blatant to me.

[cassielle]

Oh, right, also:

V/LA till tomorrow

. I have a workload piling up.

I don't know if the deadline is going to be dangerously close tomorrow (under time pressure atm) -- but if it /isn't/, don't hammer until I can check back in please? Thanks.

[cassielle]

In reviewing all 10 of Yume's posts, whever the vote giving thing was used, it has been Frozen/cass.

Why not infinity/Vecna, once they were confirmed?

Used day1, day4, and day5, so not odd-day or non-consecutive.[/quote]

D2 I was unavailable, and both D2 and D3 ended swiftly (D2 because NBA got guiltied, D3 because nancy lied about role.)

Again:

My slot was formerly held by Frozen Angel. Why would Yume give her vote to the FA-slot?
Check the signups thread for this game. They were originally going to hydra.

[cassielle]

Messed up quotes, whoops.

[cassielle]

Okay, wow.

Welcome, Eddie.

So -- I don't like your playstyle, but I can't see scum motivation in it. It's about getting the trust of the town concentrated in a point that is generally well-liked. I'm actually okay with this in theory, it's just that you're too willing to punch someone in the face about it for my liking!

So RachMarie is town primarily due to PT stuff, but (aside from lurking -- activity is NAI for RachMarie) has also been extremely obvtown. I'm not willing to lynch there.

My favored scumteam is on MariaR/Narna/momo/(McMenno/TD).

You're saying McMenno is prob-scum, which I agree with. TD's just lunatic-tunnel!town, I think.

The reason the other three I named are "locked in" is due to how they play around each other today. Here's a timeline:

momo votes me. MariaR and McMenno have some ridiculous back and forth. Narna drops some irrelevant crap about me and TD (when focus should be on me versus momo). I asked Narna questions and he left the thread. McMenno criticizes the momo vote (pay attention to who else does this). MariaR defends momo's vote. momo starts begging for a lynch from TD. RachMarie criticizes the vote (and wait for it...). MariaR "suddenly" "realizes" that momo is Postie, a former scumread of hers.

Scum narrative here: momo is the wagonpusher. Narna drops irrelevant crap to make the vote seem "normal" or "acceptable". McMenno distances from the vote so he can make it to the endgame. MariaR defends the vote -- a risk being taken to hit a scum-win mislynch. momo starts trying to get a townie on wagon so scum can blitz my vote for the win. RachMarie, a widely-townread slot criticizes the vote -- and they have lost the required weight. MariaR distances from the vote. McMenno tries to push my slot afterwards (further distancing from scumteam?) while everyone else is changing gears to anti-momo.

Thoughts?

[cassielle]

Yes. Also, nancy expressed doubt in her belief of Postie's alignment. Let me find the post where she asked for someone to investigate the slot so she could confirm the alignments of /two/ slots (it's implied to be second hand info, in other words)... Ah! Here we are.

@cassielle if we have an alignment investigative we should definitely hit Postie with it. This would potentially confirm the alignment of another slot for me.

[cassielle]

I agree with most of that. plus, unless the scum team is McMenno, TiphaineDeath, MariaR and one other, momo is scum. seems unlikely scum would out their alignment that hard. so I suppose we lynch momo today probably

I don't see any reason to consider MariaR or Narna "swing-slots" so to speak. They're more likely scum than not. momo, you've successfully made me queasy about, but I still don't like that slot continuing on to the "next round".

Can you talk to me about why you think Narna might not be scum?
I'm basing my read of him on an assumption of town competence. (Creature, before he was killed, said that Narna is scum because he wasn't able to gamesolve. I know Creature's play well enough to say that was probably a serious statement.) If he's town-competent, he never ignores momo voting me in LyLo under any circumstances. Hence, scum to me. Do you have a different interpretation?

[cassielle]

Yeah, the part where you jump in and say "Hold the fuck up you animals, I'ma fix this shit." That's how I jump in to games as town, so I inherently approve, even if the direction you went afterwards is terrible.

except it's not terrible, my slot is never getting lynched as McKnucklehead said before he 180'd, so I should make the choice of lynch. it literally doesn't matter.

I will say that if it came down to some insanity like you vs RachMarie in LyLo, I'd be smashing that vote-tag on your name in a heartbeat. I'd rather have my options open with you. RachMarie is the slot that is my townie "gold standard" at the moment and I'd never lynch that slot.

[cassielle]

Sorry, 3-slot LyLo***

[cassielle]

I haven't full-claimed because my predecessor already fullclaimed... but fine.

I am a tracker-follower.
N1: Lil Uzi Vert, who visited No Bullying Allowed. LUV guiltied NBA with a track, but I was removed from thread by another slot's active for the day so I had to have the Dark PT members push for me.
N2, nothing because of the aforementioned thread removal.
N3: don't remember, it was blocked by TD anyway.
N4: McMenno, who did nothing.

[cassielle]

Wow. MariaR is seriously stretching there. Ahaha.

Read NBA's ISO. NBA knew that LUV had that counterpart and tried to redirect -- meaning that NBA /was/ most likely that counterpart (though we don't have a flip to verify). NBA mentioned /three/ people (for the record, I don't have that thing in my Role PM about there being other similar roles) so probably was trying to shadecast at my (already claimed) slot. But due to the nature of NBA's flip, I don't have hard proof and there's no way to get it. I guess I'm a weak link if we get to 3-slot LyLo, oh well. There's literally nothing possible to do about it.

Although it's funny that she didn't latch on to that during D2 when NBA was under fire (considering FA claimed D1 under no pressure which is a scummy thing, and FTR I reiterate that I disown my predecessor's play), but then I was removed from the thread... Hmm. If I'm right, that means MariaR flipping red clears PeregrineV, because she /didn't know/ we (me, conftown, PeregrineV) were coming back. In other words: PeregrineV and MariaR are never the same alignment here.

[cassielle]

Why McMenno over MariaR, Narna, etc.?

I don't disagree with the target, I simply don't know why you'd pick him.

[cassielle]

Apologies, I've been sickly and sleep deprived for a bit guys, gimme a sec to read through again.

[cassielle]

Well then.

Here's the facts:
There is no world in which momo is town. He would have been blitzed for the win, and has absolutely no pro-town actions in his ISO (but /plenty/ of pro-scum actions, actions consistent /only/ with a scum wincon). Postie was a "minimum viable player" and has almost no bearing on the slot to begin with, but was scumread by many -- so that's there. nancy herself cast doubt on her supposed inno by saying alignment investigatives should target Postie -- /after saying Postie was conftown/. momo is not and cannot be town. If nancy had outed where she got that information, we would have two scum right now, I promise. If you somehow know who nancy spoke to, /tell us now/.

This day is mostly (not entirely) NAI for everyone except Eddie/Yume-slot and Postie/momo-slot. Scum have had too much time and opportunity to cast doubt on things and muddy the waters. D1 and D4 are going to be AI, D5 is no good for scumhunting except, perhaps, before Eddie replaced in (Eddie may be scum for this reason, but I think he's been obvtown -- I'd still vote him over others in a certain collection of slots however).

I will hammer momo in an hour or so. I want a chance for people to put out information -- maybe dredge up AI PT convos, etc. Also I sorta want momo to obvscum a bit for giggleshits now that he knows his slot can't be saved. Might be fun and informative to see how people react to it. But I'm also sick and might end up passing out if it's too long, so I can't offer too much time here.

I'm going to try and get over this sickness before the end of the nightphase so I can contribute properly again D6.

[cassielle]

I was going to vote -- but. Well. I'm parking this lynchwagon here for a moment, because there's been enough time and then some.

FACT: Eddie never fullclaimed. Funny, that. Anyone having doubts about this lynch, what with the fact that the one demanding fullclaims never did it themselves?

Now, sure, momo is never not scum here, no question there. But tell me a thing: why does Eddie push for fullclaims then fail to provide one himself? Did anyone else notice this?

[cassielle]

Not so. You claimed one piece of your role (the vote abilities). You didn't even hint at the other part -- which is actually quite important.

[cassielle]

...Well, yes, element is important. But I meant the other /ability/. (Not sure if passive or active.)

[cassielle]

Alright, one last thing.

When it comes to your thoughts on TD, the only real question is: does it make him look like scum? Town can have awful progression, and often does. (I've been waffling on MariaR all game long, for instance.) Do you find his particular bad progression scummy? And, of course: are you confident in your ability to read a slot's read-progression and get truly AI information out of it?

[cassielle]

Yes. but not to an absurd degree. It begins with the mirror inverse of my reaction ("this is obvtown but I hate it"), reminds you that you're not conftown while mentioning the only team that you can be in, then decides that team must be the right one.

The big thing is -- the progression is weirdly flat. It's not as "choppy" as you made it out to be, not by far. The weirdness is how monotone it is -- maybe scum, maybe scum, maybe scum -- and then the last minute BOOM scumteam caught you guys! Whereas you read it out as waffly then suddenly overconfident, which isn't what I'm seeing.

[cassielle]

EBWOP: "this is obvtown but I hate it" was /my/ reaction. I'm assuming based on his own words that TD had a reaction like "this is superscum but I like it".

[cassielle]

So, I've had some time to think on this. This is my One and Only Attempt to salvage a Really Bad situation.

TD, if you vote tomorrow without discussion, I'm calling it a scumclaim and I /will/ push your slot, hard. If you can get town convinced of your scum!me and scum!Eddie reads, great. I mean, we lose, but that's something where we lose because of something I can prevent -- not because town!TD forgot how to play in LyLo. If you vote us without discussion, you're doing precisely what momo did this dayphase. It puts town in a position where they have to assume, by default, that they will lose if they can't lay their vote on the /correct/ slot. It artificially narrows the playing field -- and if it's TvT you just guaranteed a town loss with that move. Don't do this. Scum only need to mislead the townies /once/ to force a win through.

You scumread us? Great. Work with that then like you would anyone else and /discuss/ /first/. Keep the playing field open so town doesn't get locked into 1v1s with a 75% chance of loss (50% chance of SvT, 50% chance of TvT, 50% chance of hitting either slot regardless of alignments, works out to 25% chance of hitting scum -- if you go by numbers of town and scum players in game it's even worse for town). Do not vote without discussion and town consensus in LyLo. Anyone who ignores or distrusts this is scum -- period. As such, town should treat undiscussed votes as scumclaiming and lynch the voting slot to death without question, to prevent people doing this. If ALL of the townies can keep to that rule, our chances go up tremendously because we will /never/ accidentally catch town doing it and /never/ get stuck in a TvT 1v1 gamethrowing situation.

That's it. That's all I can do to prevent this becoming even /more/ scum-sided. If you can keep your vote used in a sane way, TD, town has a remote chance of winning this without being forced to take and /SUCCEED/ on an insane gamble on your slot and your target's slot. The same is true of /everyone else/. And I've pointed this out, explained why, and that is the absolute best, the upper-most limit of what I can do about it.

For now... N5. I sincerely hope everyone in the game takes the above to heart, because it's the best chance we have.
VOTE: momo

[cassielle]

JKS CANNOT GUILTY ANYONE EVER. We're burying that foolishness now. In fact, there is a scenario where scum no-shoots here, but the only way it makes sense is if TD is scum: we're still in MyLo. A mislynch is a scum win. Scum would absolutely no-shoot to fake a guilty on someone -- just in this world, scum!TD didn't realize JKs cannot guilty.

Moving on.

Eddie needs to unvote for this: If RachMarie gives her vote to Eddie, we can mechanically clear his slot and be safe so long as one of us (me or RM) is online and active and removes our vote when we're not. If I'm not good enough for TD, there's also PeregrineV or even TD himself. And honestly, the only worry (TD getting blitzlynched) is precluded there by it guiltying Eddie if the slots in question are careful. It ONLY takes one careful slot -- not both. Since TD seems to think he's the only trustworthy player, he could mechanically clear Eddie himself so long as RachMarie's vote was given to Eddie as well. Bonus: if Eddie jumps, TD gets his guilty he wishes he already had.

On the other hand: We can't do that confirmation with TD. If your slot's alignment is in question here, TD, I'm afraid it will stay that way, short of you obvtowning. Most likely confirming Eddie's alignment will end with you being today's lynch.

The mechanically correct move here (as town) is to test Eddie's alignment. The best move for scum is to dig their heels in and repeat the blatant falsehood of "I GOT A GUILTY" ever more loudly. There's a third approach where you drop the shenanigans and your vote and actually let town scumhunt -- but that only makes sense if you're scum, because town would take this to the WALL if they're this goddamned certain. What's your pick, TD?

[cassielle]

That doesn't confirm your slot's alignment.

[cassielle]

Yeah... there's no benefit for scum to let this play out so quietly (and not be backing TD to tie him to them so they can swing a mislynch in either direction) unless TD's one of them (in which case they want him to fail alone so he doesn't out the whole team). Only world where TD's town here, MariaR is also scum tying herself to him. Conveniently, MariaR is also scum if TD is scum (because of the sudden turnaround in tone from their slots that looks like scum theater pushing a mislynch in MyLo for a win). MariaR is the best lynch for the day, I think.

In the case where you're scum (which is irrelevant once you're confirmed) it doesn't make much sense either -- there are three ways to play that, and none of them involve letting town point out that TD's logic is crap (because they miss the chance for that towncred for doing it themselves). So either scum is you/RachMarie/me (which is so unrealistic it fucking hurts, because I'm town and RachMarie hasn't made a single scummy move all game) or scum is you/PeregrineV/Narna which is possible but means the scumteam is so bad that they got to 9p LyLo and now 8p MyLo by sheer dumb luck and lurking. The third world isn't possible at all: no one is off-wagon pushing your slot. MariaR expressed an interest in a McMenno lynch, but it was toothless, and you/MariaR/??? is an impossible scumteam, no matter who's in third.

The world where TD is scum pushing for a MyLo mislynch after fabricating a blocked shot is a compelling one right now. It went conveniently unremarked except to offhandedly say that "scum never no-kill here lol that's dumb" and was not brought back up. But it's the sort of gambit I see him doing.

B) Scum no kill (Why in the fuck? Seriously reaching)

But assuming he isn't scum and is just REALLY BAD TOWN that has no idea what the gamestate looks like outside of his deathtunnel, MariaR still looks scummy. There's a loose tunnel on McMenno, but its one MariaR is uninterested in pushing hard for, it seems more just playful -- meanwhile her vote follows TD's vote around. There's less interest in scumhunting from that slot than there is shitposting and being on a wagon. So my lynch preference, though I agree that TD is scummy, is MariaR. TD will incriminate himself more if he's scum and maybe realize there's no chance that his preferred scumteam busses in LyLo AND the following day's MyLo if he's town. If we're lucky, we might even get out of MyLo in the process so we can afford to try to gamesolve-lynch now that we have a reasonable scumblock.

[cassielle]

It's simple. RachMarie gives her vote to Eddie (because she's confirmed town so there's no doubt that if Eddie is scum, the scumteam can push to L-1 with those votes). You give your vote to Eddie when you're online and active at the same time as he is, by using the heal tags, and watch for scum to try to hammer. They control enough votes to singlehandedly win the game like that if they know what they're doing.

So scum!Eddie votes a slot, the buddies blitz it, and you use the hurt tags to take your vote back and unvote before RC gets to the thread -- and bam! You've caught /all of the scum/! Or to be safe you could try to take your vote back before scum can fully blitz -- you see Eddie vote you hurt/unvote. You're unlikely to catch as much scum but hey, you'll prove Eddie's scum.
On the other hand, let's say it /doesn't/ happen. Then, the only possibility that includes scum!Eddie is that ONE OF YOU IS SCUM WITH EDDIE. We've agreed: RachMarie is obviously town. I think you and Eddie are never scumbuddies here. So if scum don't blitz, Eddie is confirmed town. And after that's done, I'm mechanically confirmed town by way of yesterday's happenings and Eddie's confirmed alignment. Which means that you will be entirely wrong.

It's risky if you don't trust that both of your "test slots" are town (i.e. you and RachMarie) AND that at least one of them is competent. That's why I said you and RachMarie instead of me and RachMarie -- there's no question of "oh that's just because scum was one of the votes involved" or "it's too risky because everyone involved is scum or incompetent". You're the only link in the chain that needs to have a hint of a clue what to do, and there's no one you scumread involved except Eddie -- who is being confirmed.

So if you can pay attention for an hour and refresh a lot during that time, you've got no reason not to do it. But /you/ have to be the one to do it or you'll find a way that it "doesn't count".

[cassielle]

Not testing the slot and just saying that JKs can somehow guilty someone isn't much smarter (because it will inevitably get us a mislynch and we're in MyLo). I no longer trust TD and I /do/ trust Eddie. Yume had me townreading the slot and Eddie has reinforced my read despite some initial misgivings about his play.

So for me, who townreads Eddie and scumreads TD, it's the right move to make here because there's no real risk. I guess for you it depends on how much you trust TD to watch the page like a hawk while the test is ongoing.

[cassielle]

Cass in no world can think I am scum who is still trying to bus all my scum buddies along with neighboring all my townreads unless I came into this game like "k everyone I can make it to end game even with my friend tunneling me and my head is on a lynch haha"

Right... which is why I mentioned that you and Eddie is impossible, why I mentioned McMenno is only possibly scum, and why I said you're quite possibly scum with TD (going from deathtunnel and purposeful irritation to best buddies feels like scum). I don't understand /what/ exactly it is that you misread, but you misread something badly.

The only thing I can think of that might clear it up: your toothless push on McMenno would barely count as distancing, let alone bussing. It had all the weight of a mouse fart in a wind tunnel. You and him are ever so slightly less likely to be scum partners than you were before, but I wouldn't rule it out at all.

[cassielle]

No, he deathtunnelled on you. You just irritated him purposefully.

Tell me why TD isn't scum and why they are.

[cassielle]

Yeah, you're just asserting your viewpoint as the correct one with nothing to back it up and insisting I sheep you.

I let someone coast after doing that before and they ended up being scum. Town should be able to point at why they're right, not just insist that they are.

[cassielle]

I don't even know where to begin unravelling this mess now.

If you have a vote out and your role PM doesn't say Usurpers, you need to /fix it/ promptly. It's MyLo. MyLo! Mislynch and it's a scum win!

I /still/ haven't gotten an answer from MariaR on why her scumreads are scum other than a PoE that I disagree with. TD is not acting like town at this stage from where I'm sitting, which causes the whole thing to fall apart. I want to understand MariaR's reads. A big old breakdown of why who is what. If I can follow the logic, there might be things worth discussing. If I can't, that's also worth discussing, just in a different direction.

Still no one has talked about the possibility that scum no-killed to fake a guilty result on town!Eddie. Why is this being buried? This would be an incredibly effective gambit if it had been set up ahead of time with good claims for the purpose, so it's not that it "makes no sense" or whatever. Why is no one even admitting this is a possibility?

Why would MariaR think scum would bus in an 8p MyLo? 9p LyLo is weird enough, but this MyLo could (if it's handled right by town and we have luck in the night phase) make the game town-sided again, leaving them in a 7p normal game. Scum would /not/ want to bus here. They wouldn't save a doomed slot, but they'd never be early on the wagon in this situation. Why would this not adjust MariaR's reads -- especially considering she was the first one to explicitly state that a scum bus in this gamestate is a losing approach for them?

Why the hell is everyone trying to kill a slot early in the dayphase with minimal discussion in fucking MyLo?

[cassielle]

Any question where you say "why would scum do ____" is a question you just answered yourself

Good thing none of those questions say anything of the sort. The closest I get is asking why /you/ believe certain things.

[cassielle]

Er. No. I pointed out that scum bussing in this gamestate is close to handing town the win. Which you yourself also stated, before I did I might add. Why would you think scum would bus here?

[cassielle]

Cass in no world can think I am scum who is still trying to bus all my scum buddies along with neighboring all my townreads unless I came into this game like "k everyone I can make it to end game even with my friend tunneling me and my head is on a lynch haha"

Here? Granted it's mostly implied, but that's the only thing I can get out of it. Is there some other, different secret meaning?

[cassielle]

It's bad for everyone but RachMarie, Narna and PeregrineV at the moment -- so every active slot. TD and McMenno want to kill me and Eddie, you want to kill Eddie and McMenno, Eddie and me want to kill you and TD. Ehh. Well. I guess McMenno doesn't have it that bad.

[cassielle]

Scum in TD and Eddie is p cool. The scumteam is Eddie, PV, Rach, and McMenno.

Scum

Eddie - I don't agree with swiftly discrediting of the 'not guilty'. It makes sense to have Eddie make the kill considering he seems to have no night action.
PV - Hard lurk, could go either way, but the dark element puts him ahead of McMenno.
Rach - She's been playing dummy safe with a lame role that can revive. She has next to no voting record, and I've seen her treat jailkeeps as guilties before.
McMenno - He could go either way, low impact. The Momo push looks like a bus to me.
MariaR - She's the only player with a high post count who hasn't done something anti-town as fuck. I also dig her voting record.
TD - Momo flipping scum makes me think he's town thanks to Postie mainly.
Cass - Frozen Angel was hard town. Cass' play has been just detrimental enough for town to keep around, and Momo's initial push on her last phase reads like he was trying to succeed in lynching her.

Town

Problem: I thought I was /scum/ on D5. Also, I noted your refusal to discuss the only topic worth mentioning on D5 (me vs. momo) in favor of a 1v1 that you disagree with now completely (me vs. TD).

Cass what was your result from last night, and can you verify the element changing?

No. I have good reason to avoid answering this. Ask me D7.

Shocker

, I'd be surprised if you're able to coast on Cass to a win like this. Cass could you put out a reads list for me? You have the doublevote, so you're kind of a big deal.

I don't want to talk about my readslist right now. Things are being shifted beneath the surface and I don't want anyone to start having /ideas/.

[cassielle]

While I have it in mind, I'm sorry that I've been a bit on the inactive side the past couple of days guys, my sleep schedule is having a fit. I'm going back to sleep now for the third time in a 48hr period, in fact. Fortunately, there comes a shipment of caffeine tonight.

[cassielle]

Ahahahah, oh god cass, you tracked me didn't you? You KNOW I am not lying and are still trying to cover for eddie. That means-wholly fguck, cass you're actually town aren't you? You're absolutely deluded, but you're town. I mean unless you're a scum-tracker, or just scum, but I feel like there are SO many better answers to someone asking for your results than that if you are. Like, you coulda just said you targeted me and got that I targeted someone who isn't Eddie. Basically a counter-guilty in Lylo.

Does

Eddie-PV-Mari make sense as a scum team?

Fuck, eddie still needs to die, but I need to rethink the rest of this game.

None of this is your fault, but it's damned funny.

I'm denying your cold reading outright. You will get nothing out of asking this question-set.

[cassielle]

okay but

why

would scum nightkill town eddie here

Because he's town?

you know that town!eddie confirms town!cass, right? and that could be very dangerous for scum.

so why not just kill cass? or if they thought cass was going to be jailkeeped by td, why not kill rachmarie? who's widely townread and unlikely to be lynched at this point

This is a very good point all around.

Even better would be to fake a pseudo-guilty on Eddie though, which would make it possible to swing a mislynch on me instead (which is, as it happens, precisely what TD has been advocating most of the dayphase!) if Eddie's wagon proves unbuildable. You get /two/ viable mislynch targets that way, so if either one proves impossible you can gain momentum on the other -- because (ideally) one of the people being pushed will take their only counterwagon if the focus shifts.

If they had killed RachMarie, there would need to be a claimed scum tracker to swing the same effect -- which isn't helpful, because (IIRC) there are no investigative roles except for mine right now, and I'm town but no one else but Eddie can be 100% sure of that.

So, from my perspective -- the smart move for scum is to run this fake-guilty gambit.

I do know I also can't think of a world where town!TD JKs scum!Eddie AND scum!Eddie was the one who chose to do the kill. On D5, TD clearly announced his wish to 1v1 me or Eddie come next dayphase. Scumteam has three players. Why would the one that the JAILKEEPER wants to 1v1 perform the kill? Let's assume you believe there's me and Eddie as scum -- why would /either/ of us have to? There's three scum! If you don't, there's /two/ people TD didn't talk about that are scum who could have killed. Scum always, always has a safer bet for the kill than Eddie in this circumstance. So scum!Eddie never kills except for WIFOM, and WIFOM in this world is trash because they /lose/ the kill in the most likely world and they can't even use it to swing a mislynch.

[cassielle]

That's because the scenarios where you could be town DON'T-MAKE-SENSE!

okay but

why

would scum nightkill town eddie here

Because he's town?

you know that town!eddie confirms town!cass, right? and that could be very dangerous for scum.

so why not just kill cass? or if they thought cass was going to be jailkeeped by td, why not kill rachmarie? who's widely townread and unlikely to be lynched at this point

This is a very good point all around.

Even better would be to fake a pseudo-guilty on Eddie though, which would make it possible to swing a mislynch on me instead (which is, as it happens, precisely what TD has been advocating most of the dayphase!) if Eddie's wagon proves unbuildable. You get /two/ viable mislynch targets that way, so if either one proves impossible you can gain momentum on the other -- because (ideally) one of the people being pushed will take their only counterwagon if the focus shifts.

If they had killed RachMarie, there would need to be a claimed scum tracker to swing the same effect -- which isn't helpful, because (IIRC) there are no investigative roles except for mine right now, and I'm town but no one else but Eddie can be 100% sure of that.

So, from my perspective -- the smart move for scum is to run this fake-guilty gambit.

I do know I also can't think of a world where town!TD JKs scum!Eddie AND scum!Eddie was the one who chose to do the kill. On D5, TD clearly announced his wish to 1v1 me or Eddie come next dayphase. Scumteam has three players. Why would the one that the JAILKEEPER wants to 1v1 perform the kill? Let's assume you believe there's me and Eddie as scum -- why would /either/ of us have to? There's three scum! If you don't, there's /two/ people TD didn't talk about that are scum who could have killed. Scum always, always has a safer bet for the kill than Eddie in this circumstance. So scum!Eddie never kills except for WIFOM, and WIFOM in this world is trash because they /lose/ the kill in the most likely world and they can't even use it to swing a mislynch.

[cassielle]

It's not for the obvscum. It's for town.

[cassielle]

Yeah, it's better for Eddie to give the vote to town regardless of alignment. (Gamethrowing if town!Eddie's vote goes to scum, buddies a townie if scum!Eddie picks a townie.)

[cassielle]

If he's buddying you (which I personally don't see), then it's because... obvtown. Pretty obvious. No one will lynch the obvtown for defending him, so he's pretty safe to coast (which I'll note he's not been doing). It's honestly a fairly decent move, which makes it more difficult to choose -- /if/ you discount everything I've stated in the past.

I was under extreme pressure with only two people hard townreading me (you and Peregrine) on D5, when he replaced in. I'm a lot harder to explain him buddying and he's definitely been buddying me, if it is buddying. (There's a town narrative, which I'll go into in a bit.) There's very few explanations for it due to the pressure I was under.... Perhaps to tie me to him? If he gets killed it's easy for his pals to get a mislynch on me later down the road and save the game. But I've repeatedly proven hard to mislynch, so that's a gamble.

There is, as I said, a town narrative for his play around me: and that's that replacing in with Yume having given me their vote already, I was confirmed town to him for scum having not hammered immediately (since scum would have controlled the lynch). It's a mechanical confirm, and from his perspective there is no reason to ever doubt my alignment at that point.

It's less clear why scum would want to be tied to me, since I seem to be a locus of distrust and bad decisions, and extremely clear why town!Eddie would want to talk with me about things.

I don't think TD's JK result is wrong, I think that calling it a guilty is wrong -- and indicative of scum!TD.

I've stated in the past the reason why the scumteam would want to shoot Eddie: he's gotten the game moving. Before he replaced in it was moving extremely slowly (which it seems to be doing again, but they couldn't have known that) and the chances of town /meaningfully discussing things/ were very low. Even now people other than me are asking questions about motivation, logical play, etc. -- that's /good/. That's good for town, and very bad for scum! But that's not where we were early last dayphase, or the one before that. Scum would want to send it back to how it was -- Eddie's a good shot to make.

I've also stated why scum would no-kill: to fake a guilty on a mislynch target. By picking Eddie for that target and no-killing, they can swing at least 2 possible mislynches (in case one wagon shows resistance) and quite possibly a 3rd mislynch if someone /who is not in the target group/ expresses doubt in their results. (Note that you were the first to say that a JK is not a guilty, and that TD and Narna have both since begun to consider you as a scumteam possible.) This world /requires/ TD to be scum. I'd like to note that TD's play has changed since I became a viable mislynch candidate on D5 (because absolutely no one /fucking talked to me/ on D4, mind you, which I begged and pleaded and grovelled for). Compare his tunnelling on MariaR/Postie prior to D5 with his targeting of me and Eddie D5 onwards. There's a significant shift in tone -- instead of relatively light-weight "you're scum and you need lynched" it's "YOU'RE FUCKING SCUM -- WELL MAYBE YOU AREN'T BUT I'LL ONLY BELIEVE YOU IF YOU BLINDLY SHEEP ME". He's also bringing out more apparently decent arguments (but see ... well, this very post) instead of just gut feelings.

I've also stated in the past why scum!Eddie never makes the shot: TD, the JK, /said outright on D5 that he was going to 1v1 me or Eddie/. There are three scum. That's two other people who could have made that shot, and TD only was talking about two suspects. No matter who you think scum is, Eddie never makes the shot here except for WIFOM. The problem, as previously stated, is that WIFOM probably denies scum a kill (Eddie is one of two likely JK targets) and they don't even get a mislynch out of it (because if Eddie gets JKed then who is held responsible?).

And here's a bit of extra information: before we went into N5, I told Eddie in the PT (from his power) that I don't really trust him but that I'd want to confirm him so that I /can/ trust him. He had to deal with a possible track /as well/ as that JK. The track would have been a hard guilty if the kill had been made and I had targeted him with the track power.

Scum!Eddie never, /never/ makes the kill here -- even if you think I'm scum too, there's /three/ scum and 1+1=2, /not/ 3. There's always, always, always a safer bet for the scumteam here no matter what.

That leaves TD as scum from my POV.

[cassielle]

I can't see any reason for scum to no-kill here if TD isn't scum. Not a single hint of a reason.

We've established: in no sane world does Eddie make the kill. If TD isn't scum and scum no-kills here, they cannot control who the mislynch is, so they can't push any wagon safely until town decides on a target. I think that in this questionable situation, two would push and one would distance (so they can remove asses from the fire in a paranoid gamestate but still get weight on an uncontrollable wagon) -- but that means that scum is either McMenno/Narna (Push) + MariaR (Distance) or McMenno/Narna (Push) + PeregrineV (Distance).

No one thinks these teams are remotely viable that I've seen. You don't even seem to buy those teams (though I admit I can't tell for certain there).

There's a different world: TD/Narna (Hard Push/Soft Push) + MariaR (Distance) with McMenno as a suckered townie. This reads (mostly) better to me. I'll note that this trio has /two/ slots in common with one of the teams I mentioned above, however, and admit that while I think TD is extremely scummy here, the other two are better lynches.

[cassielle]

TD: That's basically the /definition/ of scum buddying, my dude. If someone parrots your opinions you're probably getting buddied to shit. There's a huge difference between a townie who thinks like you do and a scum slot buddying up to you. Compare me/TGP (mutual, confusing as hell thought processes that we both were surprised by) to you/McMenno (you come to a conclusion, within two posts McMenno basically says your post verbatim).

The latter doesn't read like two townies, there is at least one scum in there. McMenno feels like he's unconsciously sheeping, there's these buds of original reasoning he tries to do that die real quick when town confronts them, mixed with a general vibe of frustration from his posts (which is understandable here). You take time out to explain your exact thoughts in detail to him semi-regularly (e.g. your last conversation in Dark PT) -- that's feeling like scum taking a useful mark for a ride to me, because you do it when he's already agreeing with you. It reads more like "keeping on message" than it does "explaining your point of view".

I will note it could also be that you're both scum, but TD/Narna/McMenno feels a little bit stretchy.

[cassielle]

TD no it isn't you shouldn't tr someone for sharing a view point get them to explain it in there own words and look at it that way it's the same way with reads you shouldn't ever tr/sr someone based on reads you need to know WHY they feel that way
I don't get the "why eddie never kills here" thing but I think MC is scum anyway and needs to be our lynch

This is simple. As simple as it gets.

TD WANTS TO 1v1 EDDIE OR ME ON D5: This implies that Eddie is his /target/.

TD will target Eddie

.

THERE ARE THREE SCUM: No matter who you scumread,

there was /always/ someone that TD /was not targeting/ that could perform the kill

.

TD IS A KNOWN AND CLAIMED JK WHO USES HIS NIGHT POWER IN PEOPLE HE SCUMREADS

: This was established well before N5.

AS A RESULT: If Eddie does the kill,

/scum probably loses the kill/

.

FURTHER: If Eddie does the kill

AND

TD blocks him,

/scum cannot redirect the lynch away from Eddie/

.

THEREFORE:

Eddie never performs the kill on N5 in this gamestate

because

/scum cannot derive any benefit from having him perform the kill/

.



WIFOM fails here because no matter what there is a better path for scum to take here.
They can continue to mislead town by killing with the slot(s) that the /only/ claimed role-blocking player does not target.

This course of action also lets them potentially save all of their people from the lynch, shortening the game /and/ keeping it in LyLo.

They can use their nightkill to take out TD if indeed he was remotely correct about the scumteam, because no one this game has been using the "follow the dead townie" rule.

They can WIFOM in favor of their people by taking out me, weakening TD's arguments further than they already are and making scum!Eddie look even more unlikely.

They can do almost anything -- but all of it requires they don't take the brick-stupidest path of killing with the only scum slot that is actually at risk of being JKed.

[cassielle]

Let me counter that argument:

1) Eddie could've thought TD was joking and was really going to jail someone else and wouldn't be so blunt

2) Scum see this going on and think "this is the best time to nl

3) Scum Eddie can be like "why would I lead the kill when he would 1v1 me"

4) It can be a huge scum gambit
A lot of this is honestly wifom and I don't think it should be taken into account and you should mostly go on the read you had BEFORE this happened and use reads to base it on that It's why I'm voting MC instead of that pair

By the end of D5 I was lightly scumreading TD (due to his complete revolution on my slot -- scum->town(okay)->scum at end of day out of the blue(whaaaat), and he's got me at town /again/, which is deepening that read...), and I have townread Eddie/Yume slot all game long. So this is consistent with my earlier reads anyhow.

[cassielle]

Let me counter that argument:

1) Eddie could've thought TD was joking and was really going to jail someone else and wouldn't be so blunt

2) Scum see this going on and think "this is the best time to nl

3) Scum Eddie can be like "why would I lead the kill when he would 1v1 me"

4) It can be a huge scum gambit
A lot of this is honestly wifom and I don't think it should be taken into account and you should mostly go on the read you had BEFORE this happened and use reads to base it on that It's why I'm voting MC instead of that pair

Also, I forgot...
1 is weak, it assumes extremely bad play from the scumteam, period.
2 is also subpar play, and it incriminates you because if Eddie and TD are town (the only world where TD is town and there's a no-lynch) you're scum by PoE because the /only/ possible substitution for you would be Peregrine, who I'm townreading again. Whoopsie!
3 is something I considered earlier in the day -- it's why I wasn't initially hard-defending, just poking holes in the argument and trying to get people to talk to me while I watched his slot. It took him /ages/ to finally bring up the 1v1 thing and he didn't initially use it to defend his slot. This is my weakest counterargument by a fair margin, I admit, but it's strong enough that I would rather have him survive till /at least/ 4p MyLo/3p LyLo.
4 is counteracted by the fact there is an objectively better way of going about it, namely to kill a townie whose reads were shit and who was under pressure for some of them (me, TD, McMenno and Eddie /all/ could fit this bill depending on the actual team) and use it to lead the charge against a townie who was scrutinizing the NK target by way of NKA. And you can't do this if you're rolling dice on getting JKed. There are other better ways too, none of which involve Eddie making the kill.

[cassielle]

No-lynching isn't the /worst/ move. We /are/ in MyLo.

But a correct lynch is a far /better/ move. Anyone who prefers a no-lynch has no confidence in their reads or is scum that would rather be in LyLo.

Scum also wants to lynch fast here, but they'd rather no-lynch than lose a slot at this point, because if I'm correct on TD then it's a clean sweep for town.

I'm unwilling to no-lynch.

Now that we have a votecount that's recent and up to date (thank you RC!) that I'm seeing when I'm awake and coherent, I'm going to say that Maria is probably right. Regardless of TD's alignment, I think McMenno is scum here.

1: There are two slots on Eddie's wagon and have been for a long time. QED: one or more of the three slots involved is scum. This is non-negotiable.
2: Town has no reason to push Eddie into blitz-hammer territory at practically day-start in MyLo (I feel stupid for missing that and wish MariaR had pointed it out earlier... I'd have been more likely to agree with her) and TD's vote alone doesn't do that.
3: McMenno has had a serious change in playstyle starting when I pressured his slot on D4. Compare his D1-early D4 ISO to all of the rest of it and it's basically two different players. I mentioned this and harped on it during D4 but doubted myself due to davesaz's flip and basically threw all my reads out the window (see start of D5).

Eddie, would you be willing to lynch McMenno today? TD might be tilted.

[cassielle]

I agree that TD would be the better lynch, but of all the possible compromise lynches McMenno is the only one I'd take.

[cassielle]

It's hard to say now about Narna

D5 and D6 were basically a reset period, but rethinking McMenno, my initial read on him was a better fit to his play as of now. That means one of TD, Narna, MariaR is town. TD could be ultra-tilted (unlikely as that is). MariaR would be hardbussing if she went along with this (which truthfully wouldn't be an awful move at this point for her, she's basically locked herself into it by now for townreads).

Narna... I don't have any good reason to believe he's town, but I can't seem to convince anyone he's scum either. I don't feel like that compromise wagon could get traction -- and if it /did/ I'd be pretty goddamn suspicious considering how much resistance I've had to even looking at that slot practically all game long.

[cassielle]

3: McMenno has had a serious change in playstyle starting when I pressured his slot on D4. Compare his D1-early D4 ISO to all of the rest of it and it's basically two different players. I mentioned this and harped on it during D4 but doubted myself due to davesaz's flip and basically threw all my reads out the window (see start of D5).

this is still a bad argument and you still bring it up what gives

It... really isn't a bad argument.

You coast and shitpost for days on end, don't make a single AI post. I put some (relatively light, even) pressure on you and your whole playstyle changes entirely. That's a good argument.

[cassielle]

you still fail to take into account that D2 was a guilty and D3 was fakeclaiming town that played against their wincon. D2-3 took place from feb. 27 to march 2, and I only posted a small bit on D2 before the guilty was released and not at all on D3

And D1 was very nearly full length, plus you had the whole first half of D4 which are entirely different from your later ISO.

I took it into account. It's /irrelevant/. You had more than enough time to make an AI post between game start and the middle of D4 and /you did not/.

also where's the resistance to narna? I mean they are very much a doubt-slot for me and I'd rather lynch eddie/mariar but can you point that out for me

Any time I bring him up everyone sort of nods and keeps looking elsewhere. There's been no real discussion surrounding his slot. Yume had more discussion about her before she replaced out.

[cassielle]

How do people feel about Pere I feel like he's nonexistent

He's consistent about his absence. He always logs on and posts at about the same times of day (around noon and 8pm EST) when he does post -- so I'm pretty sure his constant absence from the thread is NAI. His reasoning has been a little lacking, but he does have /original/ reasoning and it's fairly good stuff. He feels like he's genuinely trying to scumhunt.

He's my weakest townread, I'll admit.

[cassielle]

EBWOP: You all do realize that scum could very easily have said "wow, my scum buddy sure is scummy huh guys", don't you? It's called distancing, and it's used because it often works.

[cassielle]

How do you know how NBA treats their buddies? We only caught one. Who barely posted. Was barely interacted with, but had two serious looking pushes made against them in the very early game.

Also: how can you be reading someone's ISO and not get their acronym correct?

[cassielle]

You do recognize that their post history as /you/ have outlined it incriminates you. Right?

[cassielle]

It also incriminates nancy, who flipped town (just checked through the ISO). So it's worthless.

[cassielle]

*sigh* just go read the interactions and see for YOURSELF

I'm reading them. They're worthless. NBA only got vicious with the loudest town players. Definitely didn't get that way with TD -- that was far more of a subtle move by comparison with the moves on TGP/Math-slot, Lil Uzi Vert and FA/me-slot for example. TD was a fairly minimal player during D1, so this makes sense. There was a push or two against him but they were just as toothless as the ones vs. (for example) KFC/Narna-slot, Postie/momo-slot and VoT (who flipped town).

[cassielle]

dude

5 votes are required to lynch

there are 5 town alive

if one of those town is going to death tunnel me then the only way we lynch scum is if scum wants us to

This is correct.

[cassielle]

No-lynch isn't gamethrowing here, but it's definitely sub-optimal.

It'll come down to TD though, really. Eddie and I discussed this in the PT during the end of D5, and TD's tunnel on Eddie is the reason Eddie is forced to point at TD. Regardless of /either/ of their alignments, any other play from Eddie is anti-town here -- I looked for a different solution when he pointed it out to me and couldn't find it. Come D6, I waited for Eddie to self-incriminate (because I was really invested in town!TD) and it failed to occur. That means I need to assume TD is the scum here because there is no other way of approaching the gamestate that won't /force/ town into a loss. TD's inflexibility is the sole cause of that.

[cassielle]

This game feels like this video.

[cassielle]

Not so. I was ready to lynch Eddie if I doubted him early in the dayphase. I even said this to MariaR a couple pages back. I was /very/ invested in my TD townread.

But Eddie has not acted like scum. So I'm forced to believe that TD is scum until he de-tunnels, because any other action on my part is gamethrowing.

[cassielle]

Mathematical breakdown:

There is at least one scum in (Eddie, TD, McMenno).
There are two sides of the equation, and a bus like this is unthinkable in the current gamestate.
One side has just Eddie. Eddie is never scum with (TD, McMenno).
The other side has TD and McMenno. They may be scum together but may never be scum with Eddie.

Mathematically, lynching Eddie is a 33.333...% chance of hitting scum. There are three slots in question, and only one guaranteed scum, which could be /any/ of them. If Eddie is scum, he MUST be alone. Therefore, he can have no higher than one-third chance of being scum.
By simple common sense (the game would be over if the three slots contained no scum) and the fact that all possibilities must add to 100%, lynching either of TD/McMenno is a 66.666...% chance of hitting scum regardless of which you pick (due to the fact that they may be scum together).

If one thinks that this is /always/ a bus, then /all three slots/ should be treated as a 100% chance. In such a world it is /still/ better to lynch within TD/McMenno, because you could be wrong and in the world where you are, lynching within TD/McMenno has a higher chance of hitting scum.

The mathematically correct lynch is within TD/McMenno.



Now, obviously, there are problems with a mathematical approach. A solid scumread or a mechanical guilty (which I will remind you all that a no-kill on a JK is emphatically not a mechanical guilty) should take precedence -- but if you're on the fence, there you have it.

For the record, TD has not to date pointed out a single reason to scumread Eddie beyond "I say so" and "JK plus no NK". I do not scumread Eddie.

[cassielle]

Cass blatant lying, please see post 4974, 4978, 4980, and 5001.

And yeah, your numbers leave out all sorts of important things like mecmenn already pointed, or, ya' know, you could be scum, or that oh I dunno, I HAVE A GODDAMNED GUILTY YOU ANIMAL.

1: The posts you pointed out before read as clearly, obviously town to me. I don't see scum in them.
2: I made it very clear what the possibility of a bus leaves us with: the best option is still between you two because it might possibly not be a bus, and if it /is/ a bus all options have equivalent probability of hitting scum. But I'll work that out in detail for you below.
3: I'm not scum, and even you don't think I'm scum. You've said as much.
4: A JK is not a guilty. Repeating a falsehood doesn't make it true.

So: lets take into account fully the possibility of a bus.

If it's a bus, all three slots have a collective probability of 100%. There's no guarantees of alignment based on the alignments of others involved, so it's worthless for probabilistic decision making -- everyone has equal probability.
It might not be a bus: in which case it's safer to choose the non-bus grouping with a higher probability of hitting scum over the one with lower probability of hitting scum, period. This is never not the case. You can read this as Eddie having a 33.333...%(+100%) chance of scum, and TD/McMenno as having a 66.666...%(+100%) chance of containing scum. The 100% is meaningless for decision making because it's the same on both sides. You can effectively just remove that part, because it changes nothing.

You'll note that this works out the same regardless of my alignment.

Scum /must/ be within your three slots, this cannot be questioned. Saying it may not be the case means you believe Eddie is town /and/ scum is worthlessly incompetent, which makes your targeting Eddie look really dumb. This has nothing to do with my alignment.

If scum is within your three slots, then either it is a bus or it is not a bus.

If it is a bus, we can make no assumptions about alignment for anyone here. This, again, has nothing to do with my alignment: if it's a bus, Eddie/TD, Eddie/McMenno, and Eddie/TD/McMenno are all possible worlds, without exception, and because we can infer nothing about the alignment of TD from that of McMenno or viceversa, that all congeals into a glob. (The reason for this is that while Eddie is always scum in this world, you two /collectively/ ALSO have a 100% chance of having scum within you in a bus situation!) This has nothing to do with my alignment either -- it's the fact of the matter -- bussing /necessitates/ at least one scum being bussed and one scum bussing, which is one scum on either side of this situation, which means BOTH SIDES HAVE 100% SCUM PROBABILITY.

If it is not a bus, then we can assume (by the very definition of "bussing") that you two are never, ever scum with Eddie and vice versa. This means that Eddie (who is alone in a non-bus situation!) is only scum 1/3rd of the time (3 slots, 2 sides, Eddie's side has only 1 slot, ergo there cannot be more than 1 scum in the 3 slots if Eddie is the scum in a no-bus world), and TD/McMenno, /collectively/ are scum 2/3rds of the time (3 slots, 2 sides, TD/McMenno's side has 2 slots, ergo there can be between 1 and 2 scum in the 3 slots if TD/McMenno contains the scum in a no-bus world).

And you will note, finally, that my alignment is irrelevant to this as well, because no bussing forces there to be scum on only /one/ side of the Eddie wagon, and Eddie is only one (1) slot!

You must accept the argument is correct (because it is) or admit that you could be wrong about Eddie's alignment, in which case your tunnel on him is unfounded and potentially gamethrowing. This has nothing to do with me, or the possibility of a bus, or whatever inanities you have prepared. This is plain probability.

[cassielle]

It's based on a blind view of the game, yes, because /none/ of your alignments have been mechanically proven and /none/ of you are obvtown (as much as I think that Eddie is).

So us? We're /all/ blind. You guys on the other side might not be but any arguing with it is pretty much NAI -- both town and scum would do it, we can't get any signal from that noise.

[cassielle]

Common core?

[cassielle]

Really. We have a hard guilty collectively shared by Eddie, McMenno and TD. There is never, ever any need to lynch outside of that pool today short of someone jumping up and scumclaiming.

[cassielle]

You're /always/ the mafia though RC! Besides, it makes the final round more interesting if we save you for last.

[cassielle]

Hello, Wisdom.

It'd be a good idea to read through the entirety of this dayphase, TD's ISO, my ISO (I disown the play of my predecessor, but feel free to read Frozen Angel's as well), Eddie Cane and Yume's ISOs (same slot) and McMenno's ISO.

The reasons for this:
1: Eddie has had two votes on him since the start of the day, in MyLo, without a blitzhammer.
2: TD voted Eddie without discussion and claims (repeatedly) that a JK + no-kill means he guiltied Eddie.
3: McMenno was the second person on the wagon, again: early in the dayphase, with minimal discussion.
4: I am the only one vocally defending Eddie as a town-aligned player, but only three players are vocally calling Eddie scum.

So reading our ISOs and the events of this dayphase ought to give you all the decision-making equipment necessary, whereas listening to us is inevitably going to give you biased information and may lead to a bad decision -- e.g. being taken in by a scum slot.

[cassielle]

I wasn't completely 100% totally sold on PV town, it just was my best guess. I'm not sold on Wisdom yet either, I need to see more from them.

Yeah, RachMarie is obvtown (though largely inactive).
Narna is interesting: Creature (the D1 NK) called him out as scum when he was unable to come up with any meaningful reads, and had prior said he expected Narna to gamesolve instantly. Narna has since coasted and played to a bad-town or def-scum approach. I've played multiple games with Creature, and he was probably very serious (if a bit hyperbolic) about his expectations for Narna, and he's not a bad town player. That indicates to me that Narna is probably a very good town player -- but he hasn't acted like good town, he's acted like, at best, bad town. I've got no real choice but to scumread him as a result.
MariaR or McMenno must be scum, but I don't think they can be scum together, due to a late-game hard-push (starting /in LyLo/) that feels strictly losing for scum (since neither of them are hard-backing Narna and McMenno is in fact willing to lynch Narna).
TD might be tilted town, but if he is then I think he'll throw the game for town if we end up back in LyLo with him around, and so I have no choice but to treat him as scum, since if I don't I think we lose either way.

And yes, if Eddie is town, I cannot be scum, this was mechanically proven. We must be scum together or I must be town, and A: I'm town, B: I strongly believe Eddie is town due to his play and my thoughts on his predecessor.

[cassielle]

Calling it: McMenno, Narna, TD.

Apologies to MariaR. TD had me tilted on your slot and your early game play was bad (though the change from then to now was organic, unlike McMenno's instant swap back on D4).

[cassielle]

I and Eddie spoke about this before and we would both prefer TD.

If he's town, we /will/ lose if he makes it to another LyLo -- he has to be persuaded to change behavior or we have to treat him as scum.

[cassielle]

I'm not okay with lynching Narna over TD. As I argued before: it's better to take obv-scum to the final dayphase, so there's no question of who to lynch.

If I /had/ to compromise for this dayphase, it would be for a MariaR lynch, but I'm not feeling that. I think maybe Wisdom should doublecheck her ISO? There's two distinct playstyles she's used, with a clear and intelligent progression from one to the other (discounting the slight jump when we hit LyLo after Davesaz's lynch). On the other hand, there's some real questionable McMenno/Narna interplay that doesn't come off (except for the last bit I noticed) as scum!Narna tying himself to the easy mislynch, and TD/McMenno were basically vocally agreeing with each other in the Dark PT (which you have access to) which could have been trying to lead me and PV/Wisdom (the two townies in this scenario) to believe it's SvT buddying when it's really scum theater.

This is still discounting McMenno's absurd change in tone after I put pressure on him during D4. That was the first time, in fact, that he posted more than twelve words. His defense is that D2 and D3 were short, but D1 was almost full-length and he contributed nothing for the entirety of it.

Regardless, I'd like for today to be a TD lynch, and tomorrow to be McMenno vs. MariaR, so we can figure out which one it is. Narna is so clearly scummy to me at this point (there's some scum-flailing this dayphase from him that is just hilariously obvious and makes me think he's a scum-sacrifice) that I want to keep him for the final day, to give whoever needs to decide the easiest possible time. Even a Wisdom/MariaR/Narna matchup has a high chance of a town win in that world.

[cassielle]

Then one of MariaR/McMenno is tilted-town, TD is the lynch-target (so I can't use anything he says here), Narna is obv-scumming. RachMarie and Wisdom are obvtowning (one in a more town-beneficial way than the other, but anyone we can just call town and move on is better for PoE), I'm town, and I think you're obvtowning as well.

For game-solve, we just need to figure out which one is the confused townie, hopefully smack some reality into them, and we can line up all three red-lynches with no particular effort required.

Assuming a townie has bought into a scum-slot: what are the distinguishing characteristics that make them different from the scum slot? We're assuming complete belief, so willingness to doubt their read doesn't fly.

[cassielle]

Right, that's why I'm talking general stuff here. What does a townie who has sheeped a scum-slot's worldview do differently from the scum slot they're sheeping?

I genuinely don't know the answer to this, but it's worth thinking on.

[cassielle]

I'm uncertain your view works. If we make it to 3p LyLo with TD/Eddie/Narna -- as an example -- who do you think TD votes? /Regardless/ of what other scumslots get lynched in the process. That's game end, scum win, /regardless/ of how well town plays.

The only way that we can do town!TD is if we never leave MyLo, which isn't entirely controllable (e.g. if town is split, scum can refuse to bus, as Eddie mentioned -- forcing no-lynch, and then LyLo).

Along the way, the possible scum!TD will fake guilties, over-act in a town-like fashion, and WIFOM far from the shore.

So, I'm concerned. I don't like being forced to lynch TD, but it's like this.

IF WE DO NOT LYNCH TD:
Scum!TD: We survive until the final day.
Town!TD: We lose the next LyLo. Scum must bus for town to lynch without him until then.
IF WE DO LYNCH TD:
Scum!TD: Game continues.
Town!TD: Game ends.

The game is over if TD is town acting this way, so we need behavior modification from his slot or we can't be flexible on the lynch target.

And WRT TD's "defense" -- that was "people will scumread me for this and different people will scumread me for that, so there's nothing I can do without getting a scumread in LyLo, so I will do nothing."

I'm not going to jump up and say "obvtown" if you change your behavior. That's dumb. But I'll at least try to swing the lynch somewhere else -- as should anyone in that situation, it's the difference between a /required/ scumread and being able to meaningfully scumhunt elsewhere. I'd pit you against my other second-tier scumread(s) on D7 so we could sort you with less pressure on you (as the lynch doesn't /need/ to target you for a town win in a TD-detunnelled world) and therefore get more meaningful reads.

This all-or-nothing play is gamethrowing, though.

[cassielle]

Narna is underwhelming compared to the other game I played with him and is probably also scum.

pfffft. You were scum in that game, and got me mislynched for 'lurking' and being generally underwhelming. No one even listened to me after death despite being right.

Is there a point here? Are you trying to call me scum? Because it sounds you really hesitate to if so

FTR: I think meta is garbage and if I didn't scumread Narna independently I would be harping on you to provide meta-free arguments.

You might still end up needing to if there is a soul in the game who doesn't believe Narna is obvscum, so... consider that.

[cassielle]

Your slot was one of the three people he wanted to lynch earlier today (the others being me and Eddie), so I have my strong doubts. But we'll see, sure.

[cassielle]

It makes sense if Eddie and Cass are Town, given that those two are the ones I am gunning for at the close of day.

And killing eddie makes 0-fucking sense, given how hard I was pointed at him.

This is true, though I disagree on them not killing Eddie. The rest of this is correct though: he said (paraphrasing), "Cass and Eddie are scum and I'm going to 1v1 Eddie D6, or if these stupid townies will listen to me I'm going to get Cass".

That is a no-kill world where scum swings a perfect mislynch with little effort...

Though now I'm confused why in the hell MariaR and McMenno are having their little tiff.

[cassielle]

WIFOM? But it fucks up town's focus. This is weird.

[cassielle]

I thought this through.

MariaR, McMenno, Narna.

MariaR's push on McMenno makes far more sense as distancing, and she had a Night 0 action (created neighborhood with me/RachMarie).
McMenno won't claim -- and every other slot's role is known, with the only smoking gun being that /someone/ privately told nancy that Postie was conftown.
Narna's townplay is nonexistent, and his posts have been so high in scum-content that I can't help but scumread him.

[cassielle]

TD's crimes are play-related, not mechanically indicative.

[cassielle]

And everyone else is obvtown. That settles it.

[cassielle]

no, the fact I haven't been hammered mechanically means one of me/td/mc at the least are scum

This is very important to remember. Not all of the people in that list can be town. There may be two scum, but there /must/ be one.

[cassielle]

This is why I would rather lynch McMenno than MariaR for today.

Our

BIG STORY

for the dayphase is

Eddie Getting Votes And No Scum Hammering

. This story will haunt the game like a menace, derailing town's thought processes and breaking up the townblock, unless we can hit red within that group today.

If TD is town and I am right about Eddie, McMenno /must be/ scum. We benefit more by getting this fiasco off of the game board so we don't have it cropping up like a bad penny come D7.

MariaR will most certainly not be less scummy tomorrow.

That said, if no one wants to clear the air of this, MariaR is an excellent target for today. But I will not back down on taking Narna to the final day, because town can only benefit by making the last scum be the most unquestionably obvious scum.

[cassielle]

Anyone townreading Narna is scum or insane by this point, yeah. I think that everyone I townread is pretty clear on their thoughts about Narna by now (big thumbs down).

p-edit: Presupposing you are scum (so as to answer your questions as given):

1: TD had a pseudo-guilty, and you were committed to buddying him. It's a bit too late to fix that, that's public record and easily double-checked now.
2: MariaR's pushes are weaksauce and could be distancing in case of a failure to hit that sweet, sweet mislynch.
3: Narna has been muddying the waters for the majority of this dayphase. I don't think anything he says is indicative of anyone else at this point, he's acting like lurky caught scum.
4: You couldn't swing a mislynch on me if the opportunity arose that way. TD was aiming for me or Eddie, and it needed to be one of us or the other to keep TD on his ridiculous pathway. You also discussed this with him early in the nightphase in the PT (agreeing that me and Eddie were scum), so if you had tried to say I was town and have us collectively push Eddie, your greatest ally for this dayphase would have been lost.

Again, this all presupposes your alignment, because that's the spirit in which you asked it. It holds up from that angle.

[cassielle]

I've read the ISOs you mentioned and they're meaningless. You even accepted that I was right when I pointed it out. The associations you see simply are not there in any meaningful fashion -- the apparent "scum" interactions occur with townies (plural), and the apparent "town" interactions are aimed at their scum buddy just as often. We have /two/ ISOs to work with and the things you're pointing at are not there. Either you have more information on who is scum than we do (which means you're scum), or you are, at best, guessing (which leaves me to scumread you by PoE which has already been publicly performed).

Either way, I'd rather lynch you the next dayphase.

[cassielle]

Gee, that'd almost be persuasive if you had brought it up /before/ TD stopped pushing that mislynch wagon, McMenno. Now it feels like you were saving it to take TD out if he stepped out of line.

[cassielle]

Cass simple question answer it however you like.

Why are you town?

Because of my role PM. I was a shit player most of the game and replaced into Frozen Angel's slot, and she played pretty bad too. So I don't have much else. I mean... maybe you think momo (who is the least subtle player I've seen on this site) would bus in LyLo? That's you, though. But I'm pretty sure that you're scum, so your read on me isn't feeling relevant.

[cassielle]

And McMenno having that argument prepared to catch you when he had all fucking day to hit you with it is quite indicative as well.

[cassielle]

meh

I guess it makes sense if they were certain youre jailing eddie/cass

Gives you more reason to tunnel there

He's only once JKed someone who wasn't a vocal scumread of his, and that's when he JKed me on D3 because he figured I was going to be the NK. IIRC, my target that night was McMenno.

So TD, are you cool with 1v1 with MariaR next dayphase? I'm not certain of your alignment as of yet, but I like you /working with us/, McMenno/Narna is looking like a locked-in scumteam group, and Narna's best for last because he's never digging out of that hole. Having you as a willing 1v1 participant on D7 with full knowledge that you'll get pressure and BS thrown at you would go a long way to a town win.

p-edit: McMenno's my favorite here.

[cassielle]

I'd like for TD to be cool with 1v1ing MariaR on D7 before we seal this.

[cassielle]

Goddamn RC, I was about to be torn between "FINALLY I CAN DIE" and "who lied?".

Phew.

Anyway: thank you TD.

For the record guys, this is what I was looking for on D4. If the whole scumteam doesn't start shrieking when you catch them, you picked the wrong players or are accidentally lining up a mislynch first they can use to push you with the next day (i.e., Davesaz). I get nervous when things get quiet, and especially when the loud ones aren't throwing their reads out the window and making up brand new ones on the spot.

VOTE: McMenno

[cassielle]

You mean, where he kept to the same exact schedule he has all game, with him posting in highly restricted and highly consistent time periods (e.g., town lurking due to RL circumstances)? And where every post was full of attempts to gamesolve, some of which were quite involved?

No sale.

[cassielle]

"Someone kept the same posting time over and over again" Prob makes them town

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

I strongly townread Wisdom and weakly wanted to townread PeregrineV (but didn't due to my reads not including the true scum set) most of the game. I was wrong to apply my read there.

No, the consistency is just strongly NAI -- e.g. his posting would not change regardless of alignment. My bad.

[cassielle]

well cass, if I'm scum, then why haven't I claimed yet? what benefit is there to it? all claims seem to be decent so far, so why haven't I? and don't say to wifom you out, because it's clearly not working

Because you're the unnamed slot who told nancy Postie was conftown. That's my best guess.

[cassielle]

"Someone kept the same posting time over and over again" Prob makes them town

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

I strongly townread Wisdom and weakly wanted to townread PeregrineV (but didn't due to my reads not including the true scum set) most of the game. I was wrong to apply my read there.

No, the consistency is just strongly NAI -- e.g. his posting would not change regardless of alignment. My bad.

Nah, town pv ramps it up lategame, and obvtowns out.

And... that's what he did? His earlier game play was coasty (even though I felt it didn't have any scum motivation). As soon as LyLo hit, his average wordcount at /least/ doubles and everything he posts is solid gamesolving attempts.

[cassielle]

well cass, if I'm scum, then why haven't I claimed yet? what benefit is there to it? all claims seem to be decent so far, so why haven't I? and don't say to wifom you out, because it's clearly not working

Because you're the unnamed slot who told nancy Postie was conftown. That's my best guess.

1. why would I do that
2. why would I claim that (and not something else)

1: To spare your scumbuddy with minor risk. nancy could also have been lying, but it's the one time she admitted she could potentially be wrong, so I'm going to align the one-impossible-action with the one-unclaimed slot by default.
2: Lack of creativity, post-restriction, WIFOM.

[cassielle]

well we need rach for that

His buddies wont hammer him

Yeah, well, I don't mind waiting. They're scum-claiming it up. By the time RachMarie drops the hammervote, MariaR vs. TD will be a cakewalk.

[cassielle]

WIFOM.

WELL IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE WORKING NOW DOES IT

And that's the risk you take when you use WIFOM.

Hey Cass if I put you in a PT with Narna would you talk?

About what?

[cassielle]

Yeah, sorry, uh. Pretty sure Narna and I have nothing to talk about here, y'know? He's caught scum. You're nearly there yourself.

You do what you want with your PTs, yeah?

p-edit: Good job making the most obvious fake claim of all time there McMenno.

[cassielle]

In fact, that fake claim is a work of art. I'm going to frame it. Genuine appreciation. If you claimed that in any game no one would believe you.

[cassielle]

I thought TD played well and very towny towards the end but maybe I didn't read him close enough.

he really, really botched his guilty. I town read him coming into the thread and blah blah whatever I'm not gonna whine i didnt argue hard enough to lynch td

So then.

I basically was the worst town player this game, by /god/ was I bad. I had good reads here and there, but I was trying too hard to gamesolve and getting tilted by my townreads left and right.

I feel that I was so bad, in fact, that I'm taking a break from Mafia, because I can't imagine someone doing a worse job than me that game. I'm honestly embarassed and owe most of the town a huge apology.

I do think other players have things they could have improved upon, but I don't think I'm the one to be talking there. Good game everyone.

[cassielle]

TGP/Math slot had me severely tilted D1. I was going to scumread Transcend anyway for what I saw as really shifty play, but putting my foot down on that lynch was insane and -- as RC noted -- imbalanced the rest of the game tremendously in favor of scum.

[cassielle]

It wasn't the meta for me, it was the single-minded focus. I kept going back and saying, "Why do they absolutely not want to lynch anywhere but Transcend, what could possibly get someone that caught up on /one/ scum when there are /five/," and confbias took over from there.

[cassielle]

What through me off on Pere later Wis, was the bubble thingy. I could not figure out how that helped scumz.

Scum in hoods is super scumsided. If you target two Town players, esp. ones with influence, it helps scum control wagons and get majority.

Yeah, and I played a dangerous game trying to outguess the mod there, which was where I townread PV because the bubble could be super dangerous used in a different way.

[cassielle]

Bubble couldn't end the game xD.

And how was I to know this thing? I assumed it could.

By D4 I realized there were all sorts of crazy things the mod could do to fix that and was willing to scumread Peregrine, but I had already let myself townread him too long. So in LyLo when he was trying to be the voice of reason and apparently scumhunting, I fell for it easy.

[cassielle]

i didnt really do much other than help td get out from the hole he dug himself into in a natural way

Which is funny, because I had a sneaking suspicion that his eleventh-hour change of heart was faked and was going to hard-side with MariaR come D7. I just figured I didn't have the time or clout to force a lynch on him that dayphase, so I wanted to get a scumread out of the way that I could get popular support on fast.

Unfortunately, McMenno was town. You should have been scum, McMenno! We would have lost later!