Surreptitious II: Secrets and Misdirection

[Bulbazak]

We had a back and forth earlier based on my case. Technicality arguments aside, I feel like I really had to push him to give reads and reasoning on those reads. Given his complaining about people scumreading him based on his predecessor, I tried awfully hard to get him to speak outside of that.

[Bulbazak]

Did you ever give a reason why you're townreading Desp?

[Bulbazak]

@Ram - all I see in that post is a giant list of excuses for you not to comment on anything.

if everything you want to talk is Ali, then yes, have a nice day

I gave a long list of non Alisae issues and you basically weaved around those also.
Also, quite frankly, it *is* valid to talk about Alisae - you can't offer insight from within her own head, but that is not a valid excuse to refuse to discuss the slot totally.
That's a cheap dodge.

Ok, let's talk, you say i do nothing, but what about other 5 ppl in group C? Desp, Trans, Rach, Von and Gingie? What they are doing to lynch scum so close to EoD?

P-edit: Gingie, when you show your towniness as promised?

If I didn't have a countdown to abide by, my vote would be back on the slot for this alone.

[Bulbazak]

As it is, I'd be sidling up next to deadline as it is. Maybe the mod will replace Eddie quickly and give us another extension?

[Bulbazak]

You have

(expired on 2017-12-11 14:00:00)

.

[Bulbazak]

@Elli: I think Desp is just trying to lay low here and hoping the pressure goes away.

Bulba you see that you can replace desp with vflare in the above yeah.

With Von, I kinda expect him to be absent. With Desp, not so much. Especially when I'm engaging him on this level.

[Bulbazak]

You know giving me this whole deadline to get vonflare to slip makes it more likely he just lurks it out now yeah.
Next time you should lie lmao.

I gave you all the time I have. Right now, I'm just hoping for a Eddie replacement and an extension. Otherwise, that's when I'll make a move to essentially shore up today's lynch, and I'm not excited about the prospect of Vonflare when I'm close to getting either of my scumreads lynched.

[Bulbazak]

Then why not talk to someone else?

[Bulbazak]

Pick someone. Ask questions. Try to figure crap out. It's not exactly hard.

[Bulbazak]

Anyone thinks there's scum outside {vonflare, Desperado, Ramcius}?

Nope.

Zak & Ginngie put your votes on Ramci and that gives us L-1.

Even if Vax and I switched back, and even if the replacements don't come in (or they do and decide to stick with the wagon), where do you get the last vote?

Tomorrow we're lynching in Group B and it's gonna be either Majiffy or Thor.

If scum ends winning this it's alright, just not gonna nominate them for any scummie.

We only go into B if there's a result. And even if we do go into B, chances are we're not lynching Thor or Majiffy. I'm pretty sure they're both town at this point. A lynch on either of them equals an auto-loss.

Barring any surprises, A is where we go.

[Bulbazak]

Reminder:

You have

(expired on 2017-12-11 14:00:00)

.

[Bulbazak]

@Majiffy: Who are your scumreads in Group A? Because I'm doing the math, and I'm not sure it works out.

[Bulbazak]

v/la till Wednesday night is a good player. I don't know why you hate them.

[Bulbazak]

[Bulbazak]

@Elli: You're one to make a big deal of time stamps. What do you make of Desp being online at 12:08 this morning and not posting anything? I'm sure if you were tracking his status, this would not be an isolated incident.

[Bulbazak]

Desp is at L-1.

[Bulbazak]

I'll do a better VC after I eat lunch.

[Bulbazak]

@Rowdy 3:

[Bulbazak]

A goon flip would be really nice.

[Bulbazak]

Going to wait to vote until everyone from A checks in.

@Majiffy: Both of your scumreads in C (Checkers and Ram) can't be correct, so which one do you think is most likely to be the goon, and what does the possible team look like? I don't necessarily need 2 names, but I'd imagine that you'll have at least one in mind based on associations.

@Elli:

I don't want to talk about it.

I want to talk about this now. A traitor flip from Desp means that we can't really get good associations based on the flip, but I still find it bizarre that you were handed a goldmine in meta data on Desp and his stance, something that you base your playstyle on, yet you refused to look into it or his continued lurking from the game. Meanwhile, Von was just absent period, and you spent way more time and effort than was necessary trying to get him to "slip", even though absence from the slot was more indicative of it being Vonflare and not of alignment. Your attention was strangely weighted on a slot that common sense would have told you the absence was NAI compared to a slot where the absence was unusual. So what gives?

[Bulbazak]

I thought desp being afk and not claiming => desp town since it was optimal for despscum to claim pr there once it was obvious his lynch was inevitable save drastic action.

It turned out he was afk for very ikely out of game reasons though.

You could have said as much. And that still doesn't explain you ignoring the mountains of meta data. You should have been all over that, if only to look at our first game together, which would have told you enough by itself. Instead, you pawned that off on Desp, as if you didn't have the time to look over a few game isos, and instead started stalking Von's school, which is actually not going to tell you anything related to his lurking, because Von is the type of player who always lurks, and instead just makes it sound like you have a stronger case than "I don't like lurkers.".

P-edit: If Ram is the goon, Toto is his partner in A.

[Bulbazak]

I don't stalk players throughout the site. And I wasn't making a big deal over Desp's absence meaning he was scum. His reaction to me and his "tell" told me that much. I was just trying to get to the core of why you were treating Desp and Von so differently, especially when Von is known to lurk and Desp is not.

[Bulbazak]

Essentially, you were holding Von to a higher standard than Desp, and you were ignoring Desp's lurking while attacking Von for the same thing.

[Bulbazak]

i actually still think desp thought the tell was real at some point and just decided to use it here to try and trick me lol.

I think that's bull.

Essentially, you were holding Von to a higher standard than Desp, and you were ignoring Desp's lurking while attacking Von for the same thing.

I thought he was town because he was lurking when he was close to 100% the lynch while von lurking when he's close to 0% the lynch is a different story how is that not clear >.>

I think Von would lurk regardless. And now that we know there's a goon left, I'm not seeing any connections to Von, and that tells me he's C's Mick.

P-edit: I'm the one that turned the Desp wagon into a counterwagon, and I don't think Von was a reaction to the Ram wagon as it was an attempt to replicate the Mick wagon. I have it down to 2 possibilities. I'm just trying to figure out which one makes the most sense.

[Bulbazak]

Not sure on the first. On Rach, though, she was pretty obv. town, so it was probably luck. I'll consider if the first kill is telling after we get more info.

[Bulbazak]

Toto and Ram should unvote. We still have 3 more people in A who need to check in.

[Bulbazak]

I've read the wall. I'll go back over it again later. Maybe.

P-edit: The kill should still be confined in the names that were in Group A. I double checked this with the actions in the last game, and it checks out.

[Bulbazak]

P-edit: The kill should still be confined in the names that were in Group A. I double checked this with the actions in the last game, and it checks out.

Do I need to draw for you?

I meant to say C there. If we go in C and vote scum, the kill will still be confined to the names that were in Group C. They don't get resorted until the next day.

[Bulbazak]

@Chess: I wasn't arguing that we lynch in C, you chucklehead. I was saying that the theory of hitting scum in C means they can shoot outside the group was wrong. I want to wait for the last 2 in A to check in, and then barring a result, I want to lynch in A.

[Bulbazak]

I know what Majiffy wants. I know why he wants it. I don't think we're going to agree on this point, so I'm not bothering. If you want to try to get him to change his mind by just yelling math at him, you're wasting your time. Wait until Vax and Dan have reported in, then try to sell him on a lynch in A.

[Bulbazak]

Nah. Scum's Snarky and someone else. Likely Momo.

[Bulbazak]

I feel we should lynch Toto on principal.

[Bulbazak]

also i can't even exasperate how stupid "x can't be scum because y got counterwagoned over them" is, especially in a game where ONLY 3 MAFIA MEMBERS KNOW WHO EACH OTHER ARE.

I don't think Majiffy is right here, but I don't think he's coming from a scum place. From his perspective Ram is and always has been scum, and the wagon compositions that cropped up to oppose his pet wagon confirm it. At most, you can accuse him of tunneling, but your arguments for why he is scum are dumb.

You are right about only 3 mafia members knowing who each other are, and that's why I think Von is town. There wasn't enough pushback. Scum with Von on their team either A.) protect him or B.) bus him. There wasn't enough of a push to bus, as that wagon never went anywhere. And for you saying that Ram was a counter to Von, let me remind you that A.) the Ram wagon cropped up BEFORE the Von wagon and B.) the Ram wagon never really gained anymore steam after I switched off it and onto Desp. It just sat there. If anything, Majiffy may be right that Von was a counter that rose up to oppose the Ram and Desp wagons, although I really don't put much stock in that theory. So saying that the Ram wagon was a counter to Von is just false, and the "Von equals scum" line of thought fails the association test.

In order for Von to be scum, his team just ignored him, and I'm not sure how likely that is.

bulba, your reads have no fucking credibilitty this game.

I'm the one who literally got Desp lynched, so stfu.

As I've said, at most one of Majiffy/Thor is scum this game. Not both. And I'm really not sold on either of them being scum at this point. Eddie was MIA for most of the day, as he went V/LA and then asked for replacement, and that started about the time Elli got off the Gin wagon. Snarky is most assuredly scum, as he was playing the field yesterday. I've already explained on Momo. And Creature, though town, acting like he's a scum hunting god is laughable. Desp was an easy scum read. Majiffy/Thor is a "I don't like them" read.

Now I'm going to avoid this game until I work on Saturday and have seen Star Wars. Toodles.

[Bulbazak]

Okay, I've seen Star Wars, and I'm ready to go.

Bulba please explain how majiffy and von are town.

Explain how they're scum. As I said before, I highly doubt both of Majiffy and Thor are scum. Plus, Snarky's the traitor, so there's that. As for Von, it's that he doesn't make sense as a goon in the grand scheme of things. There was no one protecting him, and Transcend's claim to the contrary is bull. A preexisting wagon does not equal a counterwagon, especially when no one on the wagon made an attempt to derail Vonflare. There's no evidence of bussing, as the Von wagon just seemed to flounder. At most, you can say that maybe his team was ignoring him, but then you need to come up with a plausible enough team that can carry Von AND carry off the kills we've seen (Rauth in particular.).

Btw your association analysis assumes eli, toto and vax are not buddies with Von. I thought you were scumreading me. Why can’t I be bussing Von again?

Your analysis doesnt line up with your presumed perspective

I think your assumption that his team super bussed him is incredibly flawed. It's obvious that Eli isn't bussing Von, unless you think she's hard up on town cred. Vax was more interested in buddying me, so I'm not really seeing him as hard pushing Von, even to bus. And as for you, I'm more concerned about how you were avoiding obv. scum Desperado, and I don't think you try bussing an obvious failing Vonflare wagon to just avoid bussing Desp. If anything, your vote and push on Von suggests that you were trying to stay away from the Desperado wagon, since, as Transcend pointed out, scum would have definitely known that Desp was scum at that point.

If we choose C we're lynching Ginngie.

Ginngie's town.

Creature, why you think scum lynched Desp over Von?

Going to bookmark this for later. Given current events, I'll need to think if my feelings on this post still holds weight.

Thinking group A scum are Sky_Paladin and Bulbazak.

So apparently I noticed Desp was obvious scum, saw that Elli and Chess were townreading him for who knows what reason, could have easily given him a town read for his "tell" reversal, yet I decided to uber bus him when I had a very comfy Ram wagon? Why do I do that as scum exactly?

is bulba?

His reads bother me, as if he was trying to avoid bussing.

Yep. That's me. The guy who got Desp lynched. Avoiding bussing.

Picking up on 178. Pizza is here.

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak is also straight up buddying Thor.

Yes, because being extremely cautious about a slot equals buddying them now.

Creature

You're saying Bulba and I are buddying Thor, a goon?

do you know how buddying works lmfao
VOTE: B

I mean like "oh you're so town Thor your cases are so good"

What are you smoking? Thor's been following my pushes, not the other way around.

Bulba long story short

Thor is guiltied

Vote him

I saw. I'm not sure which phase we're in, so I'm waiting for a VC.

[Bulbazak]

Creature, why you think scum lynched Desp over Von?

Going to bookmark this for later. Given current events, I'll need to think if my feelings on this post still holds weight.

So, what you think now about Von, when Thor is caught scum?

I don't get how Thor-scum = Von-scum.

[Bulbazak]

Thor defended Desp

Thor's defense of Desp was pretty weak, but I can see where you get that. I don't see how that equals Von being scum with Thor.

Thor pushed for my lynch

And? That

might

make a case for you being town. It has nothing to do with Vonflare.

Thor ignored Von

Thor said he was okay with the Von lynch, but had no interest in pushing the wagon. Given that Von is a lurker, it'd make sense that scum Thor would show approval but want to stay far away from the wagon (Remember Mick?). Again, it doesn't establish a connection, as that was a pretty common sentiment.

Or you are with Creature on Gingie!scum idea?

Ginngie's town. Stop trying to create false dichotomies.

[Bulbazak]

Thor flipping red means no such thing. It means it's highly unlikely, but that's it. I need to go back over everything tonight, but I still think Von is unlikely to flip scum. That still feels like Mick 2.0.

[Bulbazak]

I really want to give a more indepth read of Transcend and Mikan, and all I feel I'll be able to do right now are half-hearted skims.

I have A down to {Toto, Paladin, Vax}, and I'm leaning Toto as goon and Paladin as traitor.

[Bulbazak]

And I still don't think the Mick wagon comp was good. There's scum there. Guaranteed.

[Bulbazak]

I think Thor does that on Von regardless. And Trans saying "Desp is scum" means nothing if he's essentially toothless.

P-edit: Toto, I've suspected for awhile that you're the goon in A. Your posturing means nothing.

[Bulbazak]

You mimic my countdown from d2, yet you base it around an action that will never happen, and it's a threat that is more likely to drive people from the thread. In essence, it accomplishes nothing when it comes to finding scum, but does everything to encourage players to stay away from the thread for a few days, which in this case, is enough for major crap to happen. Then you make an empty threat, given that you would be incapable of acting within your own group. Again, it's an empty action that looks like you're doing something, but is, in fact, meaningless.

And then there's the attacking of reasoning yesterday, which can be summed up as fear of the noose.

[Bulbazak]

ConManMick (8): Toto, Transcend, Assemblerotws, Ginngie, Elliberetta, InactionDan, Ramcius, checkersman7 [

Lynch!

]

Those on the B wagon at any point d2: Transcend, Ramicus, Desperado, Creature, Momo, Eddie Fenix, Toto

Those on both wagons: {Transcend, Ramicus, Toto}

I'm willing to give Transcend some leeway, because it really did look like he had no idea about the alternate scum wincon, and he got off the B wagon really quickly. Ramicus, however, does not get this. He held firm until it became uncomfortable for him to do so during his interaction with Checkers on the subject. This is especially egregious, given that Ramicus was in the first Surreptitious game, and the scum wincons were the exact same there.

So if we leave Transcend off, that leaves us with: {Ramicus, Toto}

Going to do that one bit of analysis for Majiffy next and then run comparisons.

And the attacks from Toto followed soon after this. Guess who's scared?

[Bulbazak]

If you are town who really thinks that only scum are on a wagon and no town, then I have some coastal property to sell you in Arizona.

[Bulbazak]

And here's another reason why you're scum: You're intentionally ignoring circumstances and reasons for each of those votes and just using a blind VC to paint everyone on the wagon as scum and WK Ram. However, you won't give any other reasons why Majiffy is scum. You're ignoring that Eddie had pretty much checked out and just sheeped me (that slot is still probably scum, but it's not due to this weak VC). And you're avoiding the whole part where I voted Desp and hard pushed him into oblivion, where as scum I had an easy opportunity to just lynch Ram and call it a day.

[Bulbazak]

I mean, I originally thought you were partners with Ram, but I'm really not thinking that's the case now.

[Bulbazak]

Von is a policy lynch, and if you want to lynch him because of that, fine. But admit that's what you're doing, and don't try to fake a scumread or fake some reason that he's scum (like trying to tie his school schedule to his alignment. Wtf, Elli.). In a game where each group is a micro, I'd rather vote a scumread and not a lurker.

And Majiffy has provided plenty of reads and reasoning if you stop and actually pay attention. Just because you don't agree with them doesn't make him scum. And I hold by my "only one of Thor/Majiffy" theory.

[Bulbazak]

I actually think one or both of Thor's partners may have gone after Majiffy to the exclusion of Thor. More than likely the partner in C did. I can't remember anyone in A doing that.

[Bulbazak]

Anyway the real story here is the fact that two counterwagons cropped up against the Ramci wagon and since the red flip was traitor that means we really should just be lynching Ramci today.

VOTE: C

This is stupid, but I think it's a town stupid. Thor went with the safe play. Majiffy went with the "We got 'em on the ropes boys!" play. And while I disagree with the logic here, I can see how a town Majiffy thinks this is the case.

P-edit: I'm reevaluating what I think I know after the Thor reveal, and I suggest everyone does the same. Von seems to be scumread because it's easy, not because of anything related to Thor. And those trying to say their read is related to Thor have been revealed to be full of crap.

[Bulbazak]

Here, I'll make it easier: If Von is town, what does that reveal about the goons? If Von is scum, what does that reveal about the goon in A?

[Bulbazak]

Bonus question: Do these teams make sense given the night kills?

[Bulbazak]

1. Why is that stupid and more importantly 2. why do you assume Majiffy is a stupid player.

It's a really farfetched assumption when you really stop and think about it, but it makes sense from a player, like Majiffy, who is caught up in a tunnel. Desp and Von being counterwagons to Ram is kinda silly, especially since Desp was scum. But it's not an argument I expect scum to make, because scum are less likely to get caught up in the tunnel as town are. And I'm not calling Majiffy a stupid player. I'm saying that it makes sense for Majiffy as town to get so caught up in his push for Ram that he doesn't realize that his wagon line of thought doesn't make much sense.

RE: nightkils both shots have hit PRs so my guess would be scum were shooting at PRs. Rach was more obvious IMO of the two. I'm not sure what that tells me about the scum team other than they had a competent player among the goons (hi thor)

Only one? Do you think Thor by himself is driving the scum team? And if so, what does that say about the rest of the goons? Who are you looking for in that case? And if he's not solely driving the scum team, then you should be looking for someone else of a like mindset in either A or C, if not both. Who are likely scum in that scenario?

[Bulbazak]

Merry Christmas everyone! I worked last night, and I'm working this morning, so consider yourselves blessed.

Or... majiffy is scum and has no reads and is pretending to be tunneling Ram because it fits his agenda. There are no reads outside Ram that I actually remember from him.

Then you haven't been reading. Majiffy's actually given a lot, reads included. The problem is that everyone pushing Majiffy handwaves it as noise and continues right along.

I dont understand your second paragraph. I never said there had to be only one competent player in the goons. But you only need one to ‘explain’ the night actions. Im not a big fan of nka in any case: Only scum knows why they shot who they did, and that includes irrational and stupid reasons.

My whole point is to shine a light on these "easy" reads players are batting about. If town, I want to force them to think about their reads critically now that we have a goon and see if the reads really hold up. If scum, I want to apply so much pressure to the arguments that they fall apart and show the scumbutt for who they really are. This really shouldn't be that hard.

And for the record, I do think that the Rach kill was not related to her being a PR, but incredibly obvious town. It's the Rauth kill I'm looking at. With Thor, it makes a little sense that Rauth was probably an off kill to avoid killing Majiffy for Thor reasons. That also tells me who can't be goons with Thor, because I know of a few players who, if scum, would have wanted to kill Majiffy. What this doesn't tell me is 1.) Why Rauth and not someone else, like LUV, who was more townread? and 2.) Is Thor the one driving the scum team, or did he just make a suggestion along the lines of leaving Majiffy alive? If we were to assume Thor's activity in the PT has been consistent with his activity in the game, then it becomes harder to swallow that he's the scum team's guiding force, which makes the Von scum reads even harder to swallow, and it suggests there's at least one other goon who is actually the one calling the shots. Majiffy was heavily scum read and pushed d1, so it definitely makes sense that he wasn't the NK, but again, why Rauth? Either a.) they figured out Rauth was a PR, in which case you need to be looking for players who are able to put that together easily or b.) they were intimidated by Rauth as a player.

Given the guilty on Thor, it's not too much to ask how goon reads factor in with this information in mind. If the read can't stand up to the simple scrutiny of "How does this work with them in a team with Thor?", then we need to be suspicious if they refuse to give up or engage on the read. This is especially true for players making a big deal about "Scumz have killed all the PRs! OMG!". If they're not factoring that into their goon reads, then there's a problem.

And finally, don't think that I haven't noticed that you focused on the least important part of my whole argument and means of discussion by focusing on the subject of what the nks say about the team. This was actually the context of that question, and it was the last in a series of questions meant to provoke critical thinking on the Von reads being bandied about:

Here, I'll make it easier: If Von is town, what does that reveal about the goons? If Von is scum, what does that reveal about the goon in A?

Bonus question: Do these teams make sense given the night kills?

[Bulbazak]

Paladin as traitor makes sense. I really didn't like Eddie's easy townreads of Thor or Majiffy. I've played with them before, and even I couldn't develop reads on them that quickly. It felt like kissing up. Also, I think Eddie would try to get Majiffy shot 100% of the time.

P-edit: Ginngie is town Creature. Just stop.

[Bulbazak]

Hey Creature. I lynched obv. scum Desperado over Ram. You've been scum with me, so you know how cautious I am. Stop it.

[Bulbazak]

Eddie doesn't make sense as a goon. I'm telling you, it's Toto.

[Bulbazak]

I'm going to look over that Transcend iso now.

P-edit: I know him enough to know that he would advocate enough against that kill. And I don't think he buddies up in that manner to Thor if Thor is on his team.

@Ram: How so?

[Bulbazak]

Because how hard he pushed him and he couldn't push me, because Thor was doing it, both goons on same ML wouldn't be good, also, from what i gathered, Eli was responsible for Mick too? I just saw Eli saying he have no regrets for lurker PL (Mick) and pursuing another lurker PL in Von

The only thing I dislike from Elli is trying to tie school schedules to alignment. Regardless of Von's actual alignment, rl circumstances would have nothing to do with why he was lurking. Putting effort into something so inconsequential, yet ignoring all the meta evidence that pointed to Desp-scum, even though Desp and Von were essentially doing the same thing is suspect. However, I think Elli is likely town here, and I only have her as scum in my paranoid "darkest timeline" theory. That would involve Chess being the goon in C, and, again, I don't think that's likely.

I know him enough to know that he would advocate enough against that kill.

Rach kill? Even if he suspects she's PR? Also, wasn't he replaced before scumteam could submit the kill?

I don't think Eddie would go along with the Rauth kill.

[Bulbazak]

Is anyone suggesting not lynching goons?

[Bulbazak]

@Ginngie: Talk me through your Transcend read.

[Bulbazak]

lol
I thought he was lying about his exam schedule as an excuse to not post.
I was wrong.
It also took suprisingly little effort, and it has high payoff, so etc.
*shrug*

And it's also incredibly pointless. Especially coming from a player like Vonflare. People already expect him to lurk. He doesn't have to lie about it.

I don't think Eddie would go along with the Rauth kill.

wat

I think Eddie would try to get Majiffy shot 100% of the time.

This isn't that hard to understand. For the opposite argument to work, you'd have to rely on a completely absent scum Eddie, at which point, we're back to Thor being the sole driving force of the goon squad again.

[Bulbazak]

Eddie is like me when it comes to nks. If he was a goon, he'd want Majiffy dead, and I'm not sure Thor would be able to convince him otherwise. I also think Eddie would be more active in the scum PT than in the thread, so he's not going to be absent enough to just roll over. Unless Thor's activity in the PT is higher as well, Eddie probably gets his way, unless the goon in C is also a powerful player. Eddie would not have thought of killing Rauth to try to hit a PR. First, he missed that Creature was a PR, and I figured that out on d1 and had to be coy with my sudden read change. Second, I completely missed signs that Rauth was a PR, and I had to go back and look at his ISO when you and Chess were making a big deal over how obvious it was. And if I missed it, I

know

there's no way that Eddie saw it.

Point of fact, Eddie shoots for Majiffy in B 100% of the time. The only way that doesn't happen is if there's a member of the team with more control than him and a better argument. And I'm really not sure that's the case. Given that you think Vonflare is goon in C, you better have a really good argument for Eddie's slot being the goon.

[Bulbazak]

Why is Majiffy scum?

[Bulbazak]

You don't think Thor would want to keep him alive just for head games?

[Bulbazak]

Also, Majiffy was the most suspected player in B. Why kill that?

[Bulbazak]

I'd rather believe scum knew Rauth was PR than they left Majiffy "because he was most suspected person"

Then you have your answer, and your whole point of "Majiffy is scum because he's alive" is moot. Now, do you think Thor was the one to put Rauth being the PR together, or do you think there's someone else on the team capable of doing that?

Also, what Creature said.

[Bulbazak]

You don't seem to like any sort of scumhunting.

[Bulbazak]

And yet you are advocating your own VCA.

[Bulbazak]

Then you're doing a bad job at it, since you didn't even try analyzing motivations behind reads and votes. And you hopped off Desp as soon as a nice juicy lurker wagon popped up.

[Bulbazak]

Desp wagon had just picked up steam. Elli votes Von, and you join right after, leaving the Desp wagon in the lurch. You stayed on Von until close to the end of the countdown I set. Essentially, you were for Desp when it looked like it wouldn't happen, and then when it looked like a possibility, you jumped ship, because maybe it might die down again, and those like myself might go back to Ram.

[Bulbazak]

Desp wasn't picking up? I had just voted him, putting him at L-4. Vax was sheeping me on wagons, and he joined shortly thereafter. There was no reason to think Eddie wouldn't join either when he got off V/LA. So I became the third vote on the wagon, with the heft that promised 2 more votes. And then you voted Von. And even when Vax joined, where your vote would assure Desp, who you were scumreading, would be at L-3, you stayed off the wagon until you were forced to join it again.

And I want you to explain how Von was scummier than Desp, because you have to be making some logical leaps to reach that one.

[Bulbazak]

I still don't understand why you felt the need to invent a means to scumread his lurking instead of just saying you didn't like his lurking. That would have been completely understandable.

[Bulbazak]

The former makes you look incredibly scummy. It sucks that we have to treat each group like a micro, because otherwise, I'd be more apt to just let you have it.

[Bulbazak]

The mod did us no favors by eliminating prods.

[Bulbazak]

So eliminate Von. Who's left?

[Bulbazak]

This is what makes me think my reads were good d1:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... ost1790211

hey bulba what do you think of this

Assume I'm not going to read this. What should I take away?

So eliminate Von. Who's left?

goons von or gingie

How are you getting Ginngie? She's pretty town.

P-edit: Traitor in B is Snarky.

[Bulbazak]

I think there are some wrong assumptions somewhere. I'm revisiting some of my C reads, doing ISOs, and still seeing if they hold up.

[Bulbazak]

So replacing names, we have:

GROUP A
Sky_Paladin
Vaxkiller
Toto

Group B
Jiffy
Snarky
Thor

GROUP C (1)
vflare
Gingie

so I'm guessing only name missing here that you disagree with is bulba?
maybe transcend cornercase

So you nailed Thor, missed Desp. I agree with you on A, as that is exactly where I'm at, except I'm thinking it's more likely to be Toto and Sky. C is where I think we vastly disagree. I'm thinking it will probably end up being Transcend or Ram. I need to figure out how I feel about Ram's more recent posting. There's some good stuff in there, but also some wtf stuff.

[Bulbazak]

nah i had desp originally

You had a lot of players originally. I had Thor and Majiffy in "big tub of blah" until I said they were most likely town based on my other stronger scumreads. Guess which one people remember? B's been hard for me this game, but C and A have been clearer.

Von just doesn't make sense for me in the big picture sort of way. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but that's where I'm at.

[Bulbazak]

btw bulba if toto scum is the reason why u don' BIG PICTURE vflare scum

it still works out there

it was obvious that the push was going to fail save something incredible so perfect time to buserino etc.

I just can't get Von to work in my head with any group. If Von is scum, then that implies that Thor was driving the team, and I'm not sure I buy that. And if Thor wasn't solely driving the team, that doesn't really leave anyone in A, especially if you consider who was around n1. Essentially it's the disconnected goon squad theory vs. the connected one. I lean toward the latter, which is why Vonflare doesn't make sense, and it's why I'm looking more at players like Transcend.

Desp wagon had just picked up steam. Elli votes Von, and you join right after, leaving the Desp wagon in the lurch. You stayed on Von until close to the end of the countdown I set. Essentially, you were for Desp when it looked like it wouldn't happen, and then when it looked like a possibility, you jumped ship, because maybe it might die down again, and those like myself might go back to Ram.

The question is: Was scum pretty sure Desp was the traitor?

I'm thinking it was pretty obvious Desp was scum. I think it was either Transcend or Ram who first put forth the idea that scum knew Desp was a traitor. But even if we put that aside, why would you jump off a strong scumread of yours, especially when the wagon was just gaining steam, in order to push a lurker? If you subscribe to the idea that scum knew Desp was traitor, it doesn't look good, and if you think scum didn't know, it...still doesn't look good.

P-edit: Traitor in B is Snarky.

lol, I townread him the most from Group B.

How?

Also, I forgot to ask Bulbazak:

Where did you get it down to Transcend and Ramcius for Group C goon?

I've been pretty clear about my thoughts concerning Vonflare. I townread Ginngie. I'm finding it incredibly unlikely that Chess is scum, mostly due to his outing of the scum wincon when he wouldn't need to as scum, and also because Elli says so, and I don't think she's scum. That leaves Transcend and Ramicus. And I'm leaning more and more towards Transcend.

Wait!

Do not lynch Thor god dammit.

I promise this is better but dont have time rn to explain. I can in a couple of hours.

Basically it is better to lynch someone else from B now and leave thor for later because of grp mechanics.

How is anyone still townreading this?

[Bulbazak]

VOTE: Thor

Making sure this goes through this time.

[Bulbazak]

Do you think Toto is a VI?

[Bulbazak]

I think they work really well as partners. Apparently you don't think so.

[Bulbazak]

VOTE: Group A

[Bulbazak]

So there was a Dead PT, and I didn't get access to it because...?

I guess I underestimated Bulba because of his group B reads.

Yeah, my B reads sucked, but I did constantly say that I was having trouble with that group. My goal was to sort one of the other groups and then come back to B with a goon flip to reference. I also underestimated you, because you were way more confident in pushing your reads here than you were in Night & Day (seriously, if you are in a 1v1 situation in a game where scum can only be X, don't waffle around).

Completely missed Dan. I was completely trusting Elli on that read, and I really liked his d1 sassiness around the LUV vote. It made me think "He's wrong in that he's voting town, but he's wrong in a town way.". I just never stopped to reevaluate that. I probably would have considered the darkest timeline theory (Elli x Chess) before I'd have reconsidered Dan.

[Bulbazak]

Given the disadvantage, daytalk would have been useful for the goons.

[Bulbazak]

Also, promised this if Alisae was town:


I had a higher opinion of you prior to this game, and I would have preferred you to have been scum than to have spewed Chess-worthy garbage.

[Bulbazak]

@Chess: The same reason I didn't want to think of a possibility of you & Elli being scum (I didn't think it'd be possible for town to win in that case, so best to just assume it to be impossible) was similar to why I pushed that slot so hard. Alisae said and did some things that I felt were uncharacteristic, and I preferred a world where they were scum to one where I severely misjudged them as a person. The last time I let something like that go, Alisae completely outplayed me. That's why when I talked to Ginngie on d2, I was trying to find out if my impression of Alisae was just wrong. I never got that reassurance.

[Bulbazak]

I was severely turning around on Ram d3. I meant to give final reads on d4 before the thread closed, but I was actually being very lazy. I would have been screaming Transcend/Toto. I think I knew the Ram slot was town in my heart of hearts, but I really didn't want it to be true.

[Bulbazak]

It's all right.

[Bulbazak]

BULB THIS IS MY FORMAL APOLOGY

That's okay Elli. To be fair, all you've ever seen of me was a 4 year old game and 17 Kilos, where I essentially was never able to get my feet under me and turned into a gibbering paranoid mess. You at least talked to me and gave me feedback. Sometimes all I need is to talk with strong townreads for awhile. I got where I needed to be by d2 to start making progress.

Btw how did it feel bulb when Eddie was sorta obv scum. Did you pity him?

I know Eddie personally, which means I knew about his rl circumstances and how that was affecting his play. So I wasn't taking any of that activity stuff or talking about his circumstances into account, because he would have done that regardless. I was trying to pay more attention to his reads/stances and how he got there (Again, I never felt comfortable with how quickly he townread Thor and Majiffy). After I got him lynched as town in Night & Day (where I agreed to always give him a day before going full paranoid on him) and after he played toward making me see him as town in TBD, I was being extremely cautious this game. As I had to tell Chess, I never wrote him off as town, but I didn't want to rush into a scum read either. I was hoping that he might be able to get the time and I could actually get the full on interaction that I felt I needed to nail down a read, but then he replaced out and ghosted across all media for about a month. I looked at his replacement, thought "probably scum, will take a look later" and focused my attention elsewhere. I didn't feel as great a need to get that nailed down, because he was in the same group I was.

[Bulbazak]

He also had more time to play and didn't have a kid to worry about.

[Bulbazak]

@Rach: I figured it was because you were incredibly obv. town.

[Bulbazak]

Was going to wait until after Team Mafia, but it looks like that's been delayed. I'm going to take a break from mafia games for awhile to focus on other projects. I have a bit of an obsessive personality, which makes walking completely away from this site almost impossible, and it means I spend a disproportionate amount of time playing a game when I should be doing other things, namely getting Critical Reset up to snuff. I'll still consider playing if I get an invite or if a game is being run by one of a select group of mods (of which I'd probably get a general invite anyway), but other than that, I'll be ghosting on the site. I'll still be around (I don't think I can ever not check in.), but I'm not going to randomly join any games any time soon.

This game was fun, and I look forward to playing with most of you in the future.