A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Starbuck]

I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum. It's being said like it is fact and that it will definitely happen that way. I don't believe it will, so while my opinion on it is unpopular (look at all the people who have hopped on my bandwagon to prove that point), I don't believe that it is wrong or scummy.

I try to look at things from all angles when I am town and I'm doing that here.

[Starbuck]

I disagree that this should be used as a second scum lynch and if that makes me scum in everyone's eyes so be it.

So what do you think it should be used as?

And why are you choosing yourself?

I think it should be the hands of a VT. A townie who has nothing to lose, but would still follow the wishes of the majority.

If it ends up in scum hands, we won't know where it lands.

I didn't want to claim this early, but I'm choosing myself because I know that I am town and that I have nothing to lose.

[Eddard Stark]

Brightroar was an ancient Valyrian Steel Sword belonging to House Lannister

Day 1, Votecount 3

MagnaofIllusion (2) - Benmage, Shadow1psc
Mastermind of Sin (1) - sword_of_omens

Starbuck (7) - Dolorous Edd, Tyene Sand Staeg, Minimum, Plum's Yo Mamma, Feysal, redFF

SnowStorm (1) - Plessiezarus
Minimum (3) - MagnaofIllusion, Salamence20, Hasdgfas
Petyr Baelish (1) - Mastermind of Sin
Benmage (1) - SnowStorm
Salamence20 (1) - pappums rat
Dolorous Edd (1) Pandora
Feysal (1) - Starbuck

Not Voting (9):

Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, Petyr Baelish, Hyperion, Regfan, Bvoigt, BBmolla, Jal, StefanB

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 3rd September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-03 18:59:59)
  
• redFF is V/la until Friday.

CHOOSE VODKA

MagnaofIllusion (3) - Minimum, sword_of_omens, MagnaofIllusion
Benmage (1) - Benmage
Tyene Sand (1) - Feysal
Dolorous Edd (2) - Hasdgfas, Plum's Yo Mamma

Feysal (4) - Tyene Sand, Dolorous Edd, Salamence20, BBmolla

Hasdgfas (1) - Shadow1psc
Petyr Baelish (1) - Mastermind of Sin
Minimum (1) - Pandora
Starbuck (1) - Starbuck

Not Choosing (14):

Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, Staeg, Petyr Baelish, Hyperion, redFF, Regfan, pappums rat,, Bvoigt, Plessiezarus, SnowStorm, Jal, StefanB

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'.

Point out any mistakes that you see.

[Tyene Sand]

Starbuck: Scum won't choose other scum. Scum will choose town. But it's still a 1:1 result on N1, which would benefit town since there's more town than scum to begin with. Choosing someone

you know

to be town (i.e. yourself) is stupid, because odds are you're going to end up shooting town since there's more town than scum, and then it's 2:0. Best odds for town is choosing-town-who-shoots-scum, another 1:1, but it's not very likely to happen.

Make sense?

UNVOTE: Starbuck
VOTE: Feysal

[Dolorous Edd]

I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum. It's being said like it is fact and that it will definitely happen that way. I don't believe it will, so while my opinion on it is unpopular (look at all the people who have hopped on my bandwagon to prove that point), I don't believe that it is wrong or scummy.

Wait what?...

I don't get this. Like, at all :/

No one is saying scum is going to shoot another scum. We're saying if we choose scum, then all they will get is a vig shot. That means we trade 1 for 1. 1 scum for 1 town. Which, mathematically, makes good sense for town.

Who said they were sure scum would shoot another scum? I mean, other than Feysal, and he got jumped on for having inside info that it's multiball...

[redFF]

I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum.

Are you even reading the argument? I'm not sure scum will shoot scum, but I am sure that if we lynch scum we are guaranteed at least one scum out of the choosing and if we lynch town all we're guaranteed is at least one dead town.

If it ends up in scum hands, we won't know where it lands.

What does this even mean? Wouldn't you take a 1 for 1 trade? Yes if we choose scum we will probably have a dead townie

but at least one scum

. But if we lynch town we will have a dead townie and the

possibility of one dead scum.

I'd go for dead scum with a chance of dead town over dead town with a chance of dead scum everyday.

[Tyene Sand]

EBWOP:

Starbuck: Scum won't

shoot

other scum. Scum will

shoot

town.

Similar sounds past 3 am. -_- Bite me, English.

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: redFF

Unnecessary posturing.

[Tyene Sand]

Let's reverse that, actually.

UNCHOOSE: redFF
CHOOSE: Feysal

UNVOTE: Feysal
VOTE: redFF

[redFF]

I was trying to articulate my point to Starbuck because she didn't seem to understand it fully from other posts.

[Benmage]

sb is town dedd is scum

[Pandora]

Why would anyone suspect this to be multiball? The last Game of Thrones mafia wasn't. Scumslips are still stupid and never work, the people most likely to mention the dreaded M-Word first seem to be town not worried about tripping the wire. I consider this a double lynch that gives the second suspect a vengekill.

Vote: Dolorous Edd

Choose: Minimum

I don't think I follow you at all :/

You said that you can't see how anyone would see this as multiball.

Yet you vote me and Min...

While Feysal is the one who slipped with the multiball...

Though you also mention that scumslips are stupid.

So, which is it?

What does one have to do with the other? This kind of response is what I'm voting you for, along with the bad double bandwagon hopping. Do you have some opinion of Minimum that makes you upset I voted them?

[Dolorous Edd]

What does one have to do with the other?

Umm, obv you can't point out to something that makes someone look suspcious and then vote the people who pointed out the same thing and voted that person...

This kind of response is what

I'm voting you for, along with the bad double bandwagon hopping

.

Are you really serious? Wtf? I am the first vote on Star and I'm the second on Feysal (and the first to point out what made him look suspicious, mind you). How the fuck am I "double bandwagoning"?

Do you have some opinion of Minimum that makes you upset I voted them?

No, but neither do you seem like you have an opinion for

why

you're voting them.

[Dolorous Edd]

Point out any mistakes that you see.

Umm,

Mod: I should be the second CHOOSE on Feysal, not Shadow1psc

.

[Dolorous Edd]

This kind of response is what

I'm voting you for, along with the bad double bandwagon hopping

.

Are you really serious? Wtf? I am the first vote on Star and I'm the second on Feysal (and the first to point out what made him look suspicious, mind you). How the fuck am I "double bandwagoning"?

I'm actually really annoyed you said this actually. I'm trying to push for what's catching my eye and what's rubbing me the wrong way, and I get accused of fucking "double bandwagon hopping"? At least if I get accused or attacked of something, let it be partly true, other than just throwing shit in the air.

[Pandora]

Umm, obv you can't point out to something that makes someone look suspcious and then vote the people who pointed out the same thing and voted that person...

the people most likely to mention the dreaded M-Word first seem to be town not worried about tripping the wire

The words are right fucking there. You're misrepresenting what I said in the worst possible way. On the other hand, you're the one who went "OMG HE SAID MULTIBALL!" /o/

This kind of response is what

I'm voting you for, along with the bad double bandwagon hopping

.

Are you really serious? Wtf? I am the first vote on Star and I'm the second on Feysal (and the first to point out what made him look suspicious, mind you). How the fuck am I "double bandwagoning"?[/quote]
Let me put it another way then that you should understand. Your original vote on Starbuck is typical RVS. Your pursuit of her is continuing over game theory (that you agreed with earlier, that we shouldn't try to pick scum to have the vig) and because you don't get something Starbuck appears to be hopeless confused about. Can you tell me what is scummy about what she's saying? I think you're just staying on the wagon that picked up and justifying your stay with questions that bring out more theory-related confusion instead of pulling out scum reads.

As for Feysal, you're the one who pointed out why it would be going with what's popular:

Who said they were sure scum would shoot another scum? I mean, other than Feysal, and he got jumped on for having inside info that it's multiball...

It's stereotypical. You also sound like you've forgiven him later, but I don't see you rushing to change your cozy position.

[Pandora]

I sign my hydra posts with failed quote tags, clearly.

[Tyene Sand]

you don't get something

Starbuck appears to be hopeless (sic) confused about

And this is why that Starbuck wagon is a terrible idea.

I believe there are intelligent minds even outside Dorne, and thus suspect the votes still on Starbuck after her confusion became patent. However, I very much disagree with Pandoreh that Dolorous Edd is the most egregious of those voters; he seems mostly confused, too (Does the Wall freeze your brains as well as your minds, oh Watchman?), while redFF is openly

chiding

Starbuck in a way that is quite improbable as someone who is trying to figure out her alignment. As I doubt redFF is town gone into rabid tunnel mode 90 posts in, his behavior is highly suspect and merits a lovely

wedding

wagon and painful death.

[Pandora]

That word had an ly when I typed it. >_> Suffice it to say I don't think he sounds confused, he sounds way too overdefensive over something that shouldn't be that big a deal, especially since no one else is voting him yet. If it were such a weak and misrepresenting point I would have expected him to vote/choose me by now.

Looking over redff I have to admit his last post immediately set my teeth on edge.

I was trying to articulate my point to Starbuck because she didn't seem to understand it fully from other posts.

Why do you care what the person you're voting thinks about your points on her? Your vote is based on the same misunderstanding of theory, except you seem to think she's purposely pushing bad logic. Why aren't you going after Edd then, since he proposed we give the vig to town?

Ew he even made the Starbuck/Feysal votes. I'm not sure if I want to Choose him though, and I don't really want to give Dolorous the vig either. From what I've read I don't think I'd trust redff with a gun.

[Tyene Sand]

Why would anyone suspect this to be multiball? The last Game of Thrones mafia wasn't.

The last game was not 28 players, though. This is also a bit of mod meta; Faraday is aware that games above 23-24 players usually need multiple factions to ensure a semi-decent number of Days, otherwise this turns into Chess Mafia and we'll be here until next Summer in Westeros seasons.

What

is

suspect about this multiball thing (by all means, pappums--go read a few Feysal posts elsewhere) is the offhanded way Feysal addressed it, as anyone who has read or played with him will realize. Feysal has a tendency to wax prose over every single point that is not an established fact, and here there was an 'assumption' that he simply took and ran with without developing it. It feels awkward, out of place--as if it is already fact for him because he knows his scumteam is too small to be alone.


And if, by chance, he is not a traitorous servant of the enemy, this is most certainly a man I trust with killing that bastard on the Wall.

[Pandora]

I guess that's true. I think every large theme I've been in was multiball come to think of it. Still, doesn't that make offhandedly mentioning it as a fact even more reasonable? I feel like I'm going to close to writing his defense for him so I'm going to say I disagree with you. I don't expect him to take long to post his huge replies that I recall skipping completely in GvE. -.- I honestly hope it's not a scumtell for him to post more concisely because god damn.

[Pandora]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Feysal

There's no way this guy ain't scum. Look at that #61 -- he's backpedaling. If it was so obvious the game was multiball, why didn't anyone else pick up on it? And, if nobody had picked up on it by your post #47 despite it being so obvious, why didn't you point it out when you talked about crosskills? Moreover, all Feysal's posts so far have been theory related. Classic. (Don't know why we're Choosing him instead of lynching him. I don't really want scum getting a Vig shot N1 if we can help it. Whoever we're less confident in can be Chosen.)

Benmage is also scum, but gentlemen don't change both their hydra's votes without first making sure it pleases the lady.

Tyene Sand and Dolorous Edd are town.

-- Quilford

PEdit: odear lol

[Tyene Sand]

While not everyone can have a Dornishman's cunning wit and quick mind,

do

try to make sure to iron out that hydra dissonance. It can be quite bothersome. I do trust you are not some maddened Targaryens, but for the sake of appearances, please.

Feysal was town in GvE and wrote

essays

, Shadow-head. As he did in Chrono Trigger as scum. But there are differences--and glossing over assumptions is quite drastic from our loquacious friend.

I do, however, disagree with the Antipodal-Head's theory-attack at this stage in the game.

[Pandora]

:<

-- Quilford

[StefanB]

Sorry while post more later (including voting), in a few hours.
So this is only a hello. (not much time in the moment)

[Regfan]

Don't think I'm joining any other games in a while so I'll probably be going all out in this game, sorry for the impending walls.

Also please don't N1/N2 me!

Got a few strong town reads and a few more weaker ones. Strongest town reads by far are Ed, Pandora and Tyene. Really like Ed's intro into the game and his initial vote and timing is probably what I would have done, also while I don't agree with the Feysal 'slip' I think his pointing out of it is a town-tell plus his reaction towards Pandoras FoS rings genuine. Similarly like Tyene pointing out the Feysal thing at the exact same time with the constant shifting of votes/choosing and scumhunting looking very legitimate. Pandoras alternate head revealing Quilfords account without asking him first is a big town-tell, think as scum he'd have asked Quilford if they want to try and hide identity to make meta reading them hard, especially since Quilford isn't a strong scum and his comments about redFF read as town, also like how there were in-thread hydra disagreements; think as scum they'd have conversed outside of thread whereas as town they'd be scumhunting individually initially. Got weakerish town reads on Hasdasg, Feysal, Benmage, Plum, Pappums and Molla, if anyone wants any of those reads explained in some detail or a summary of them ask.

I don't think Feysal assuming that it's multi-ball without massively elaborating on it is a scum-tell at all, it's the sort of assumption I can see him making and right now I think his play matches his town meta closer than his scum meta. Also Faraday has made several comments to me in the past that he thinks a 28 player game without there being more than one night kill a night is a bad idea and would last forever. I could see this being Scum/SK rather than Scum/Scum though but Scum/Scum is more likely than anything else right now with the only real way it being a single scum team is if there's some sort of choosing mechanic daily.

Not sure what to make of Starbuck at all. Had a fairly strong scum-read on her earlyish comments. Really hated her attempt at creating a differentiation between voting and choosing rvs votes and her explanation behind it was completely illogical and her Post 71 of "I haven't slipped because I"m not scum" is extremely overdefensive with the self vote attached being weird but Post 75 has my head in knots. I can't make heads or tails of at all, it comes across as her not understanding the situation or what everyone else is talking about with the "choosing myself because I'm town and have nothing to lose" follow up post being genuine. I'll probably devote some time during my run tomorrow thinking about it but leaning slightishly towards her being town right now.

The few scum reads are incredibly weak right now. Something feels off about Minimum but I can't pin-point what exactly, if I had to specify it's probably a lack of town reads stated by them or reads at all though willing to give them time

to convince me I'm just mad at Mina for picking CES over me to hydra with.

. Also really don't like SnowStorms entrance, think for his first game on-site and in a theme he knows things about as town he'd be more light-hearted or at least have a welcomish/hello sort of post or joke but instead his vote on Benmage in Post 63 feels forced. Didn't like Salamences comment in Post 56 either but might be worth checking his meta out quickly if I get time later. Didn't like MoI's self-choose either but that was a super minor thing.

Oh and Pandora, who's your second hydra head, Quilford and who? Can't work it out from your posts and am fairly curious.

Summary for those who are lazy and will inevitably skip my post (Which you shouldn't do):

Town (S->W):

Pandora, Tyene, Ed, (Large gap), Pappums, Hasdasg, Benmage, Plum, Molla, Feysal, Starbuck.

Null:

Lyanna, Mocking, Staeg, Petyr, Hyperion, Red, SoO, Shadow, Bvoigt, MoS, Plez, Jal, Stefan.

Scum (S->W):

Snow, Minimum, Salamance, MoI.

Vote: Snow

Choose: Minimum