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Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:03 pm
by Emperors New Groove
  • Davesaz
    Ramcius
    DrewVa
    Karmeleon

    If there is a bullet point,
    that means they have voted
    to end day.
Also...the whole SS claim that people are dumb enough to believe...but even absent that.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:03 pm
by Emperors New Groove
pagetop++

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:09 pm
by Nev and Max
In post 3474, Emperors New Groove wrote:Because it's incorrect and an attempt to serve their purpose.
I think this is the part of the dance where you show that he is incorrect. Easy way to do that is with quotes I've found.

Ahh back to us being dumb for believing a claim for now.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:11 pm
by Emperors New Groove
In post 3477, Nev and Max wrote:I think this is the part of the dance where you show that he is incorrect. Easy way to do that is with quotes I've found.
They're in the ISO.
In post 3477, Nev and Max wrote:Ahh back to us being dumb for believing a claim for now.
If you say so. It's a bad claim.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:22 pm
by Nev and Max
I've grown tired of you. You can deal with Max from now on.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:24 pm
by Emperors New Groove
In post 3479, Nev and Max wrote:I've grown tired of you. You can deal with Max from now on.
Same. You can deal with Ari.

He's a real person that you can/should know. HF.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:26 pm
by Emperors New Groove
In post 3480, Emperors New Groove wrote:
In post 3479, Nev and Max wrote:I've grown tired of you. You can deal with Max from now on.
Same. You can deal with Ari.

He's a real person that you can/should know. HF.
Hi! Yes! Hello!

It is I, the Aristophanes!
I have sorely neglected this game, how can I be of service? :)

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:39 pm
by Emperors New Groove
I see how it is.
Ari shows up and everyone runs away :roll:

I'm not that scary, am I? :P

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:15 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3149, Xtoxm wrote:
In post 3042, DrewVa wrote:Xtoxm -- I know his reads as town can be good sometimes, so I'd like to hear more about the reasoning in his reads in 2761. I think it's important to explore the strength of townreads and if I'm wrong on one of mcqueen or ss I'd like to know why.
My reputation precedes me. Thank you DVa.

They are both scummy for similar reasons. They both came into today failing to re-evaluate their read on my slot based on new information.
McQ at the time, I didn't suspect his push on me but looking back it was really bad. He called me scum for refusing to end the day. At least one other player had the opposite instinct in the same moment. Perhaps he was trying to bully me into ending the day while he thought the leading wagon was on town.
SS post today where he says I don't deserve to be townread - the tone feels more one of frustration than concern to me.

I'll also mention Theta, because I see people dismissing the slot on the basis she was a counterwagon to scum. I'm not convinced this is the case. At the end of yesterday, she pushed for a lynch on TLK, but on the EOD VC she never voted him. I think scum, if active at EOD, would have been able to make this lynch happen, if it were town. I think I was the attempted cw to scum.

I'm a little surprised you have me as null, but we can work on that.
This reasoning for scum reading Theta Alpine is very sound to me. Seems like a big slip on theta's part to push a lynch on me when I claim ss and then not follow through. And the only thing I've seen from theta today is an offer to hammer me, which is like the unexpected side of the wifom argument.

Seeing xt had two votes at eod, I will say that the cw theory is lacking but it doesn't really exit the realm of possibility either.

I have been liking Xtoxm's posts for the most part and this explanation of his reads really captures the essence of my town read on him.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:22 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3156, Thanos wrote:
In post 2400, Boonskiies wrote:Xtoxm [2]: - Mcqueen [12/28, 16:08], Something_Smart [12/28, 16:09]
Woah. This is interesting. Seems co-ordinated.

~Auro
Oh wow I didn't notice the time stamps there in my last post. Much less likely a coincidence than I thought before.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:25 pm
by Nero Cain
I feel like there's a ton of ppl calling TLK scum but I feel like the chance he gets lynched is low. Seems like an EZ hedge for scum.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:05 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3267, Elsa Jay wrote:Go big or go home. You think a friend of Boon IRL wouldnt do that?
I lol'd

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:13 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3265, Elsa Jay wrote:
In post 3263, Nev and Max wrote:Only way scum says "I claim SS" is if they are betting on there not being one in the game.
Then it's a win-win to claim it for your comrades to know who to avoid hammering. He wasn't in a good position before his claim. He was literally keeping the VC pointing to his death.
In my iso, post 922 for instance, I can be seen leaving crumbs to my role before I outed myself. I wanted to be subtle but my hand got forced and I don't know enough roles to fake a claim.

I do wonder about who the vig kill was supposed to be, seeing as there was only one nk. Did they abstain because they only have a certain number of shots, or does it seem more likely that they were role blocked? I mention this here because Elsa was the big vig claim on D1 and I'd like his input on it.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:24 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3284, RCEnigma wrote:TLK claiming SS would hinge heavily on there being daychat. SS isn't a role I'd ever encountered outside of forum mafia and I get TLK isn't new to mafia just to the site. But it still feels like a claim that comes from a scum collective rather than TLK just pulling that one out on his own.

Not sure about fakeclaims being provided but wouldn't fake claims be somewhat similar to the role scum has? That would make Scum!TLK like a vengeful mad or something?
I want to say that super Saint is just about the only role I do recognize on the list other than cop/seer and godfather. Everything I've looked up or had to guess based on context.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:28 pm
by The Last Knight
In post 3287, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 3285, The Last Knight wrote:
In post 2932, BrightEyedFish wrote:The two theories we have right now as to how Ram became a Day Rep is:
1. Scum used their factional ability to place Ram as a day rep.
2. Boon randomly selected him.
So I did have a thought while reading further: what if the number of day reps that can be chosen from BOONus rounds maxes out at 3? So, in this case, the first three winners from groups A and B were chosen and group C got screwed. That would make the 4th slot designated for scum. That way, if they decided not to use it, it is random.
If there is a slot designated for scum it outs them at some point. There would be an out of wack rotation where x slot shows up as a rep more often than they should.
Okay I reread this and it does seem unclear what I was trying to say.

In this scenario, I meant that the 4th day rep is random by default
unless
scum decide to choose one of themselves to fill that slot. This would make it a lot harder for us to guess who is scum. But this isn't certain until we have a larger sample size of days to draw data from.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:29 pm
by RCEnigma
In post 3137, Emperors New Groove wrote:
In post 3133, mcqueen wrote:Cheeky Dancer, davesaz, The Last Knight, Karmeleon, Gamma Emerald, and RCEnigma. Those are the players I'm looking at right now.
Town, town, scum, null, town, scum.
In post 3134, mcqueen wrote:Auro's Day 1 play looks fine to me.
Haven't seen Auro here today.

Ari is going to show up soon. I'm going to bed.
For future reference ENG's reads are:

Town - cheeky, Dave, gamma, Bef, Profii

Scum - McQueen, TLK, RCenigma

Whichever head answered McQueen would probably be the best to get this answer from but why are you so against giving up reads to slots you find null (assuming....since it's not in the ISO....) But give them freely when prodded by a slot you scumread?

Specifically McQueen since you also scumread me but were still bullish about reads you didn't have when I asked.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:47 pm
by profii
In post 3452, DrewVa wrote:profii where are you on Ram rn? -d
Book mark will look at this later this morning

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:40 pm
by mcqueen
In post 3150, Thanos wrote:
In post 3129, mcqueen wrote:but times where they seem, to me at least (I've never played with either, so if someone wants to meta-correct me, go ahead), are blatantly town. Those times include both heads, btw.
McQueen, could you point out a couple of instances where you thought my slot was "blatantly town"?

~Auro
Personally, I liked post 438 and post 1241 of yours. I did a super-duper quick re-ISO of you, and I should probably retract my "obvtown" statement; that's a bit overexaggerated. While you're not some perfect essence of town, nothing pings me as particularly scummy. Hopefully that's a better representation of my thought process on your slot. If you want more examples for either argument (town; or, posts that strike me as null, but not necessarily scummy), let me know.

I'm not a huge fan of the interaction with DrewVa, but I'm not sure where I read that on either side. Seems like two town getting frustrated.

As for Lamees, I think she made some errors in logic judgement at the start of Day 2, but that's just her being wrong.

You're a townread of mine.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:58 pm
by mcqueen
@Cheeky Dancer, I'm not frozen. 3/4 votes on me are terrible, with Xtoxm's being the only one to actually make any sense. ENG is voting me solely because I'm lazy. That's a real nice vote to have when I'm seemingly already the plural lynch as of now.

I went back and found this, to comment on it once more:
In post 2858, Cheeky Dancer wrote:I can't get my head around this big mismatch in intent. On one hand you analysed the beginning of the scum EOD wagon. On the other you say you haven't and have totally missed Xtoxm eod and analysis today pretty much obv towning him...? Not sure I buy this.
In post 2405, mcqueen wrote:Welp. Alonzo is almost a certified townread at this point. Not sure if DrewVa was intentional with their vote on EFN, or they took advantage of an easy bussing opportunity.

Curious as to whether the mafia used their ability and picked someone as the Day rep for Day 2.
In post 2843, mcqueen wrote:
In post 2761, Xtoxm wrote:That a is a good vote
So is ss and McQueen
Can everyone take a moment to realise how bad their last minute wagon on me was
“wagon”

Still not convinced ur town either. Aside from using ur day end vote sanely, what have u done?
In post 2844, mcqueen wrote:Pls remind me when u even voted efn @xtoxm
See below, please. (Sorry, I quoted it in the wrong order, and I initially wanted to comment on this first.) How is me analyzing two heavily vocal votes on the wagon, both of which were the most important to mention, scummy? So what if I left out Xtoxm? If I don't recall him voting EFN, what would I have to comment on it? I've already said this, but Alonzo needed to be confirmed as town, and at the time I was skeptical of DrewVa, to which you agreed. As for your vote, you sheeped others but attack me for sheeping your vote. How does that make any sense? You were a townread at the time, so when Day 2 started, I had no comments regarding your vote. If others had scumread you for it, they were free to comment on the matter, but I, however, did not. You're pushing me for a weak reason that in no way makes me scum. If I have no comments on the matter, why should I be forced to create dialogue? Also, why wasn't this the first thing you brought up if you had such a problem with it? Again, you agreed with me about my suspicions of DrewVa, but seem content otherwise that I only mentioned them and Alonzo.
In post 2863, Cheeky Dancer wrote:
Xtoxm is obv town based on his last minute push eod on EFN and his analysis of his own wagon today. I know this because I did the exact same thing as town.


I don't get how you only analyse 2/4 people on a wagon and be satisfied enough to come into the game accusing Drewva of bussing - then saying Xtoxm is OMGUSing you. It just doesn't seem like genuine intent to solve. It feels like you skimmed for just enough info to have something to talk about rather than trying to see any real info to find scum.
This isn't good reasoning, maybe you see it that way, but when I've been led to re-evaluate your slot, telling me Xtoxm is obvtown because you did the same thing, lacks any weight in convincing me of his status. He even says in post 3393 that from his point of view, "the case was flimsy."

---

Also, the timing of Something_Smart's vote and mine is completely coincidental.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:01 pm
by mcqueen
In post 3429, davesaz wrote:
In post 3365, Karmeleon wrote:DrewVA, if you had to end the day this instant, who would you lynch?
Possible scumpost.
I thought the same. It's not scummy in and of itself to ask this, but it's a possible communication method between scum to see others' lynch preferences.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:24 pm
by Gamma Emerald
In post 3482, Emperors New Groove wrote:I see how it is.
Ari shows up and everyone runs away :roll:

I'm not that scary, am I? :P
Maybe try better hours

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:37 pm
by Cheeky Dancer
Yeah responding to one argument isn't going to do it for me Mcqueen. Here are some other arguments you may have missed

- You hedging on Drewva today
- You hedging on Profii yesterday
- You hard defending EFN for no reason D1 except because he was a "random"
- You not having your own scumreads by day end and sheeping my vote on Xtoxm. When I changed my mind you still tried to encourage it yet today you say you only voted him because of me.
- Your unexplained townread of something smart D1.

I think I may have missed some other points but this will do for now.

~ C

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:42 pm
by Cheeky Dancer
I'm happy to quote all these issues in your ISO if that makes it easier?

~ C

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:42 pm
by BrightEyedFish
Here are my current scum reads:

Ram
TLK
Karm
Drew

I would be willing to lynch any of these players today in this order.

Does anyone think that it is
IMPROBABLE
for these 4 to on the scum team? Because the more I look at it, the more it just all makes sense. I think Ram is scum due to my Day Rep theory. I think TLK is scum because RAM is scum and was more than happy to hammer a SS (I don't believe the SS claim)
AND
I think TLK is scum because it was the 2nd top wagon on D1 where we got a scum lynch (imo a counter wagon to a scum lynch is also cum more often than not)

The other 2 of my SRs are dependent on the flips of Ram or TLK.

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:43 pm
by BrightEyedFish
EBWOP

oh my god.
cum = scum

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: