Starcraft Mafia: 2 -- Game Over!

[Michael Scott]

Oh wait NVM, yeah I suppose waiting for the last claims is a better idea.

[Michael Scott]

I'm leaving out one tiny part of my role which I don't think is relevant to town WRT solving for scum, but will help town.

I'm Zerg Overmind, an informed town ascetic. I'm a ground unit, a building.

I was informed that multiple X-shot BP exist; and also that there are no town doctors, jailkeepers, rolestoppers or aliens that could target air units.

[Michael Scott]

@Almost Chara, that feels odd; Almost50 was active a few hours ago and was even posting elsewhere. Claiming simply takes a couple minutes and no thought (If you're town), it's just hard to buy that tbh.

[Michael Scott]

Also, I didn't move both nights. I'm a building, so can't move.

[Michael Scott]

If Almost Chara is town, then Mewtaph is *definitely* town.

[Michael Scott]

we automatically kill any enemy air units

(only light ones)

What does that mean?

[Michael Scott]

Preliminary movement analysis suggests Mewtaph is the Scum protective.

If enemy air units that pass over you get killed, why would you think Mewtaph is scum here?

[Michael Scott]

Right. So you mean you *block* scum kills when scum tries to kill someone on the opposite side. Am I correct?

[Michael Scott]

Varsoon, would you be able to make a fullclaim rn? Who'd you target N1?

[Michael Scott]

Compiled a list of claims and revealed roles so far; If I missed something please correct it.

[Michael Scott]

@AC: Sorry if I'm being a bit nit-picky here, but why'd you move down SIX spaces on N1? You were at position 5 after STW's lynch; that would only make you have Alch, Creature and Varsoon below you. How is that "in-the-middle"? Explain.

[Michael Scott]

Positions at D1, post-N1 kills, D2, post-D2 kills, D3.

[Michael Scott]

As for why the shot has been blocked, I did offer an explanation. Something anti-something. Since I don't know the game itself I can't specify exactly, but there are certain defensive mechanics that block certain offensive actions. Like, om so many games there are anti-air defenses to shoot down jet fighters but they do not affect tanks. Submarines that will sink ships but not attack aerial/ground units.

Also notice that we are looking for that someone that blocked Varsoon's shot, and I know it wasn't us, so I am looking for someone who has been close enough to STW and has moved towards where the Vig was (they probably didn't expect Varsoon to jump up 7 notches).

Almost Chara, I'm just clarifying here: You posted the top quote because you knew about your own role, but at the same time you were confident it wasn't *you* who blocked it because you only target enemy air units; Correct?

[Michael Scott]

Oh, okay then. Looking forward to your reads/solve! I strongly feel jjh and ProFlavor are scum here. I very strongly feel T&L is town, and I think Alch is town too. Pint I'm unsure about.

[Michael Scott]

Varsoon is probably air, he said he can move anywhere.

[Michael Scott]

Wait, where did Varsoon say he was grounded?

Almost Chara falls into the same as Pint - their claim seems to check out, and is consistent with their D2 speculation and play, so I want to call them town, but I am paranoid about the slot.

[Michael Scott]

I don't get your question? Yes, partly because the 1v1 was caused by a reaaon which you believed, which I knew to be untrue.

[Michael Scott]

I still believe jjh927 is very likely scum though. I thought I caught a contradiction in his claimed night movement, but I ran through the claimed movements and it checks out. No one seems to have lied about their movements, at least.

[Michael Scott]

What benefit would walking past AC give?
Who do you think is scum apart from jjh?

[Michael Scott]

What should brass have caught?

[Michael Scott]

Are you referring to the part about certain abilities being able to get past the BP?

[Michael Scott]

What's your case on T&L?

[Michael Scott]

Hmm. Varsoon, do you think scum!BP is a possibility?
Because you could attempt a vig shot on jjh tonight to test his claim - if he's scum and lying, he gets vigged; if he's town and telling the truth, nothing happens.

[Michael Scott]

Both NKs are flavored as "killed by Marine Fire", do you think it implies kills by ground units?
That would also imply proximity, right? Pint was a spot away from both NKs...

[Michael Scott]

It's LyLo but if jjh is town, he's BP, right?
So it shouldn't affect him, and it's equivalent to not killing.

This way we can ensure he's not lying about BP, at least.

[Michael Scott]

It's not LyLo; We're 6v3 now. We can afford exactly one Mislynch
But yeah, I still think jjh is a safe shot.

[Michael Scott]

Roles that will not be in THIS game include: Lyncher, Godfather, Psychologist, Lightning Rod,

Redirector

, Witch, Arsonist, Serial Killer, Survivor, Lightning Rod, or Nexus.

There's no Redirector.

[Michael Scott]

I also said anyone having BP shouldn't claim that they do.

[Michael Scott]

Regardless, Varsoon should vig jjh927 over no-killing.
The former at least confirms that jjh isn't scum lying about BP *in the case* that someone else in town has BP and hid that info, as I said.

I don't see why anyone should claim BP when we can confirm this. Do you think otherwise?

[Michael Scott]

Eh, screw it - I think too much discussion here is just going to confuse us, and that confusion isn't worth the gambit.
The part I stated I omitted was that I'm X-shot BP. (Not revealing X)
I thought I could bait a NK. This is how I was 'informed' of multiple BP; since I'm the other BP.
I'm pretty sure T&L and jjh927 aren't W/W here so I made that assertion.

[Michael Scott]

I think brassherald is playing *way* outside his scumrange, looking at Gundam Mafia; given the way he reacted to jjh927's roleclaim, I'm extremely confident he's town.

[Michael Scott]

Made up.

[Michael Scott]

Lol, just compare Brassherald's play in Gundam Mafia with his reactions here.
Even in that case you're proposing - that I'm gambiting hard with scum!T&L, what purpose would that serve, Pintu?
Unless you mean {MS, T&L, jjh} is the scum team with jjh bulletproof?

[Michael Scott]

Informed Ascetic X-Shot Bulletproof.
My only information was that town doc, JK, rolestopper, alien can't target air units.

[Michael Scott]

How do you townread JJH, Alchemist21?

That shooting JJH is a good option didn't occur to me till then. I was suggesting not killing anyone earlier.

[Michael Scott]

@Pint: You're saying I'm gambiting now just so I can set up JJH for tomorrow and achieve a different mislynch today?
That's a *bit* of a stretch, right - since it seems easy for a JJH wagon to happen anyway, and if I prevent JJH's ML as scum, there's a good chance I or a buddy of mine could get lynched - since no one's really out of lynch danger at this point.

[Michael Scott]

You're talking about a game that finished on May, right? 'Cause between May and now brass could've changed his playstyle dramatically since he had a site hiatus at some point. I know I changed since my hiatus, so why wouldn't he?

He could've, but the way he went about responding to jjh927's claim I find hard to fake considering his prior playstyle. I don't think it's easy to change his scum playstyle dramatically to whatever he did.

[Michael Scott]

it's erroneous for us to assume BP = town.

If JJH being BP doesn't lessen the chances he's scum, we should lynch him today, then - confirming he's BP doesn't give us much to go off of.

[Michael Scott]

I don't feel like putting in the effort at all.

You should, man. You're the only confirmed town at this point.

[Michael Scott]

Cool then. Your current best solve is {jjh927, ProFlavor, Mewtaph}, right?

[Michael Scott]

What the shit about brass' initiation of a 1v1 was towny? I can point to a bunch of really bad points in those posts

Bad points =/= scum.
I'm going by meta - by his May meta at least this (the way he reacted in the 1v1) is out of his scumrange; and I don't think it's likely that it's grown so much over a hiatus.

[Michael Scott]

I feel like I'll just continue to lead us to ruin and that's why I was allowed to even live this long.

Honest opinion - doesn't matter, man.
You're a capable player, having a bad game - doesn't mean you can't turn things around.
Also, play to have fun. It's cool if you play your best and it results in a loss.

[Michael Scott]

But your claim is sketchy, or at least the way you presented it and being you the last one doing it. I thought that you would have something more spicy, but now it seems like you managed to claim last with a lie.

I was ready to go at any point. If I was scum I'd have something spicier tbh
There's no scum benefit to also claiming BP especially if both jjh927 and T&L are town BP. Correct me if wrong?

[Michael Scott]

Talking about scumranges tends to make for very poor and subjective arguments that boil down to circular reasoning

The bulk of arguments in this game are subjective, though.
It's not circular reasoning. Meta is a pretty useful tool.
Besides, I asked for your T&L case - apart from their 'bad points' in the 1v1, what else makes them scum?

[Michael Scott]

The benefit is saying that T&L is town and that jjh should be shot; that means none of them flips and you get to lead whatever happens on D3, like a mislynch on ProFlavor, which I was expecting to be your next move.

And the cost of the whole crumbing multiple BP, finally fakeclaiming BP doesn't justify the very slim benefit of being able to pull off that kinda stretched gambit.

[Michael Scott]

Well, okay, then. Also, could you tell me your read on ProFlavor?

[Michael Scott]

It's objectively a bad move as scum, I'm saying, as the costs outweigh the benefits; furthermore in this gamestate with us scum and JJH town it's a much slimmer benefit than you seem to think it is, because if I was scum and JJH was town that's a *very likely* mislynch today.

[Michael Scott]

See - T&L being townread means I can go "townleader" mode and also simply push jjh927 *without* orchestrating an elaborate double fakeclaim with T&L.
Like cool, I get the paranoia, I'm just showing how it's really implausible.
Also place your vote I guess?

[Michael Scott]

Logic being that if it's too implausible, it's not alignment-indicative.

Also, could you walk me through why ProFlavor is in your solve?
You were very confident on him being town before.

[Michael Scott]

Cool, cool. The way you're pushing me and our equal primary solves makes me think you're town, especially if jjh927 flips scum; I asked that just to make sure you were being consistent with what I read from your ISO.

I dunno what to make of FL's lack of investment this game - he enjoys playing scum, right? Cause he's been active in other games.

[Michael Scott]

I did expect that you would, given your own prior belief that town would have only one BP; fair enough.

[Michael Scott]

Small correction @AC, I think Mew has Alchemist in his solve.

[Michael Scott]

Almost Chara: Did A50 not know that Varsoon was mechanically cleared prior to post 2935? I want to know your combined read progression on Varsoon's slot.

[Michael Scott]

Also, can you walk me through your Alchemist townread? From the game I've read it seems like he's an easy read with a meta of "not having enough presence" as scum. He seemed town to me from play but his post-D1 play feels like it matches that, so I'm getting a bit worried about my read there.

Also, I expected more reactions if we found the scumteam by consensus; why would a scumteam just ignore that?

Also, any pointers from mechanics? Both kills were by Marine fire, that implies ground units, yes? I'm not so good at this, but if you can figure out something it'd be great. One of my concerns with Pint is that he was adjacent to both the NKs.

[Michael Scott]

Both Mewtaph and jjh927 never once mention ProFlavor in their ISOs, interesting.

[Michael Scott]

Almost Chara: Did A50 not know that Varsoon was mechanically cleared prior to post 2935? I want to know your combined read progression on Varsoon's slot.

This makes me feel AC is town - scum!AC wouldn't bother trying to cast doubt on Varsoon; if AC was scum, I'd expect A50 to be updated with the scum thread / agenda at least.

I'd still like the progression explained though.

[Michael Scott]

So I've had a chat with Volxen, and these are the conclusions we've come to.

• Volxen pointed out that
  3 town BPs
  with one unlimited-shot seems very unlikely, and I agree; also, an unlimited-BP doesn't make much sense even if certain abilities can bypass it.
  One of {jjh, T&L} is scum
  and we're
  highly confident
  it's jjh927. There are other reasons that lend jjh927 scum equity - like the lack of vote on both days D1.
  jjh927 has to be lynched today
  .
  
• Pintu and ProFlavor aren't W/W
  : Both scum fakeclaiming Zergling leaving only three confirmed town Zerglings is unlikely - so a scumflip on one of them makes the other town.
  
• Mewtaph and Alchemist21 are likely not TvT
  : The game having three town-aligned air units with all scum fakeclaiming ground units is unlikely. Their tunnel supports this. Mewtaph is much likelier to be scum IMO in this situation, considering his lack of town meta-match, his lack of mention of other scumspects, and bad votes.
  
• Almost Chara is probtown
  : In addition to my earlier reasoning (can't see the Varsoon push coming from scum and their D2 play seems consistent with the claim), Volxen pointed out that it's reasonable to expect a town anti-air defence role given there are scum air units.

So we have one scum in each of {T&L|jjh927}, {Pintu|ProFlavor}, {Mewtaph|Alchemist21} and our current best solve still stands at {jjh927, ProFlavor, Mewtaph}. We both agree that jjh927 should be the lynch today.

~Jimothy

[Michael Scott]

Chara, you said that our solve doesn't fit with the massclaim - it looks pretty fine to us, can you go into a bit more detail there? Also please respond to the question in 2944, please.

[Michael Scott]

i know you're just trying to figure things out but if you're keen to ask me all of these questions, could you think of some to ask other people besides your townread? i've said i don't have a lot of time and that hasn't changed.

The second and third questions were to everybody. Thing is, you're the only active player here I can sort through exchanges -- I'm still waiting for jjh927's case on T&L (and also Pintu), and for ANY reads at all from ProFlavor.

I do have a small amount of paranoia that Mewtaph is town and Alch is scum; I'm not sure what I can ask him or engage him on to solidify reads there.

[Michael Scott]

Your current solve and possible combinations I have considered in my own time and have felt that they felt too easy.

Of course. I and AC have this feeling too - to quote what Volxen said to me in Discord, "scum are not always mastermind's, sometimes they mess up and become easy solves "

Your argument about jjh927 not putting in effort is applicable to you too, if you're town I hope you get into the game more. Can you talk to me more about my analysis in 2949?

[Michael Scott]

General thoughts. Also, what's your solve apart from Alchemist21? Who do you think could be deepwolves here?

[Michael Scott]

I'm sorry my pop-in killed your vibe, but it's clear I'm open to re-evaluation - and I'm also not completely sold on Alchemist21 being town. I definitely see a world where I *am* convinced you're town and Alch is deepscum, and if you're town I'll be very disappointed at your decision of not putting in further effort.

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph, important question: What's your read on me?

[Michael Scott]

You won't be able to drag someone rooted, right?

[Michael Scott]

I think what's best is if you move to the bottom again, and drag ProFlavor beneath you (If jjh927 is lynched). This way, Varsoon's quite a few positions away from ProFlavor *and* Alchemist|You. I think the only way to kill him in that case would be an air attack; and if Almost Chara is town, they should mostly block it, thus forcing scum to perhaps choose a different target.

[Michael Scott]

This is the kind of plan I could see being from either alignment. On one hand yeah it’s keeping people in your solve away where they might have a harder time killing Varsoon, but it’s also dragging one of them outside of Varsoon’s killing range which is kind of sus.

Eh, on further thought I don't think it matters. Night actions resolve before movement, so if my solve's right Varsoon can be NK'd anyway.

Also, I'm kinda against Varsoon using his vig, too.

[Michael Scott]

To be perfectly clear, Jjh is not "just" a scumread for Auro and I -- we consider him to be

mechanically proven scum

.

This is what Jjh claimed:

Go on then-

I was a drone who had to choose a place to build a hatchery N1, and I wanted #7 but apparently was put in #8. Can't move after that.

Now I'm a building and a bulletproof one at that.


So yeah I can't really say I figured out Varsoon's role with just my role PM proficiency. I have crumbed pretty much everything in my role.



Can we not popcorn it? I want Brass next

Or you're scum who doesn't like playing scum when an invulnerable jjh927 just revealed himself and started playing the game

This is like, last call on removing me from the game

I'm not unlimited BP that would be dumb

That said my pm specifically points out that certain abilities might be able to bypass my bulletproofness so maybe it's not last call

So his claim essentially is that he is a drone that turns into a hatchery that is "bulletproof unless hit by an ability that bypasses my BP". Notice he said never said anything about being X-shot BP -- he is claiming that the only way he could be nightkilled is if he is hit by a specific ability that bypasses his BP.

"unlimited BP hatchery unless hit by a bypassing shot" is not a real role because that would be nearly impossible to balance. It's very unlikely that all three scum have the ability to outright bypass BP, because it wouldn't make sense for the entire scumteam to have this ability. So if, say, only one scum has the ability to bypass BP, and if that scum were to be lynched, that would literally make Jjh 100% immune to nightkils for the entire remainder of the game. And that's why it's a fake role that doesn't exist.

Jjh is scum and needs to be lynched today.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Varsoon shouldn't shoot if he flips town. if he flips scum i think a pintu shot would be best.

Agree on the former; what makes you think Pint is bussing jjh927? Any strong evidence pointing to them being scum together, or simply because they'd be adjacent then?

I'm of the mind that a jjh927 scumflip indicates Pint is more likely town.

[Michael Scott]

this is coming from me, and i'm still scumreading jjh, but.
he did explicitly claim he isn't unlimited BP. he didn't say if he was x-shot or not. he could be odd or even night, or something else.
roles that bypass BP would be a strongman.
and he later claimed scum might need to use two kills or something.

jjh does need to fullclaim his BP, i agree with that. how many shots he has and the circumstances of how he might die. but he isn't mechanically confirmed anything.

Mewtaph: you were because of how you seemed to casually be in everyone's scumlist with no one really interested in lynching you. it just was giving me that sort of feeling.
~Chara

If Jjh is town and he is X-shot BP, that is exactly what he should have said upfront. I don't expect anyone to say

how many

shots it takes to break the BP, but X-shot BP should be stated upfront. In fact in his initial roleclaim post, the only thing he stated was that he is bulletproof. That's it. He then called himself "invulnerable” and talked about how today was "last call" to kill him, as if to suggest that he is immune to nightkills. It was only after being pressed by T&L on the legitimacy of his roleclaim that he went on to say, "I'm not unlimited BP" followed by "there is a shot that can bypass my BP". Again, he never explicitly stated that his BP would be destroyed after X-shots, so his claim read as "I'm not unlimited BP, there is a shot that can bypass my BP". In other words, his BP is not destroyed by X amount of "regular shots" (i.e., a normal scum nightkill); the

only

way it could be destroyed is if hit by a certain ability (that only one scum would likely have) that

bypasses

his BP. That would be an overpowered role and thus is not possible.

If Jjh's roleclaim was supposed to be, "I am an

X-shot

bulletproof hatchery. There is

ALSO

a certain shot that can bypass my BP", then

ALL of that should have been immediately stated upfront in ONE post with his entire roleclaim

. He didn't even include the bit about the shot that can bypass his BP in his initial roleclaim post, he only shared that detail in a later post

AFTER

T&L called him out on his claim being fake. And he never directly stated that he is X-shot BP.

That's how we know that his roleclaim is fake and that he is scum

.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

If anyone needs a recap on the exchange between Jjh and T&L, please review posts 2766 - 2787. Jjh only shared more details about his roleclaim after T&L claimed limited-shot BP and called Jjh out on his claim being fake.


- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

hm. you might be right, actually. i was thinking that pintu scum looked like it'd make sense with this gamestate, especially if jjh flipped town, but i got it confused in my head.

i don't have any strong feelings anymore that jjh will actually flip scum,

is the issue. but not lynching him seems foolish.
~Chara

Jjh is scum. Aside from the issues with respect to how he claimed, there aren't three town-aligned BP roles in this game. We've claimed BP, T&L claimed BP, and Jjh claimed BP. We know that we are town, and we strongly believe that T&L (Firebringer now) is town as well. Which leaves Jjh as scum.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

If Mew’s a goon ProFlavor is most likely Town,

Evidence for this? ProFlavor mostly maintained Mewtaph at town, or "Lynch if FL wants to", and Mewtaph never once interacted with or referenced ProFlavor.

[Michael Scott]

pinturicchio could be scum, actually. Was reading through D1 stuff and ISOs since this day and D2 are clearly hot garbage for generating any info.

Mew, have a skim of Pintu's previous towngames - see if you'd make the same conclusion reading his ISOs there.

[Michael Scott]

The biggest indicator that I'm wrong is that the people that died townread Alchemist.

They were prolly killed for scumreads. I maintain that one of you, Alch must very likely be scum, because otherwise ALL claimed air units are town.

This means one scum is fakeclaiming a ground role, or that one of you guys is scum.

[Michael Scott]

So what's your final solve?

[Michael Scott]

Varsoon, I like you and all BUT if you really feel resigned and don't feel like playing the game, you should consider the prospect of having someone replace into your slot...

[Michael Scott]

I'm not making any solid judgment on Pintu yet - I lightly townread his push on me, I was evaluating the strength of Mewtaph's argument specifically. Plus, I think a jjh927 scumflips would make Pintu town, considering he felt earlier in the day that I was trying to swing a vote off jjh927 and had some conviction in his push there.

Wouldn't ProFlavor and jjh927 fall into the same bucket WRT no resistance to being scumread?

What makes you lose your townread on us? O.o Why does our interaction with Mewtaph look SvS to you? He's part of my current solve, I'd rather lynch jjh927 simply because I'm more sure of that slot being scum. FMPOV, one of {T&L|jjh927} is scum and we're really confident on T&L town; whereas I don't share the same confidence in Mewtaph vs Alchemist.

[Michael Scott]

Mew, have a skim of Pintu's previous towngames - see if you'd make the same conclusion reading his ISOs there.

The purpose of my asking this was to poke holes at his potential case on Pintu, if that's not clear.

[Michael Scott]

That's the way I talk to everyone, though. My read on someone doesn't make me talk to them differently. Also, you forget one thing: The way he reacts to arguments I provide is *really* good material to help me form a read on him.

Well, do you disagree about "One of the BP claims is scum" or "One of the air units must be scum" arguments? I'm constantly asking for people's thoughts on these, to disagree with me and show me why not. I'm using them to refine and support my solve; could you point me to anything specific conclusion that those arguments help form as opportunistic? Because I have individual reasons to scumread each person in my solve.

[Michael Scott]

why poke holes in his case if you aren't sure of your own read on pintu?
you presented his meta as a reason to townread him and premptively stop Mew's pintu case, but you're not townreading pintu strongly? why didn't you want the full case to come out?

and i'm still interested if you have accompanying scum meta on pintu.

What does my own read have to do with the strength of a case on Pintu?
I invite him to make a full case - it's the specific argument ("his content doesn't generate info") that I'm combating.
You're misconstruing that I presented his meta as a reason

to townread him

- I asked Mew to check meta just to evaluate

that argument

(that Pintu not generating meaningful content the way Mewtaph interprets meaningful content is scummy for him).

[Michael Scott]

i disagree about this approach, because if you feed him right answers then he's going to give them. i'm not saying that you shouldn't converse with scumreads (i do it all the time) but if you argue while making what you think he should say obvious, to me at least, what's the point?

I'll think about this, but I think my approach is fine.
I think it's always pro-town for everyone to be completely transparent and boil down differences in opinion to fundamentals. If he's scum and "the right answers" I'm giving implicate his scumbuddies, he's backed down and must offer stronger logical arguments to combat my stance, and the more he'd do that, the more it's easy to judge his alignment. If he's town, it's good to correct incorrect conclusions he forms and help him form a better solve.

but now that i think of it, lynching jjh based on the BP claim and townreading Fire slot hard looks awful if jjh flips town, because now you're the suspect BP.

I understand. I'd be pretty shocked if jjh927 flips town here because my townread on Fire slot is *really* strong.

[Michael Scott]

The defense of Mewtaph makes sense if Mew’s a scum PR, but the defense does look bad for ProFlavor if Mew flips scum which is why I don’t think they would have done it unless the risk was worth it.

Have to read up there closer but Mewtaph was the counterwagon to STW, right? Pretty sure the risk was worth taking.

[Michael Scott]

@AC I'd like you to think about ProFlavor vs Pint and tell me who you think is likelier scum before the hammer happens.

[Michael Scott]

Someone hammer.

[Michael Scott]

i feel like the answer to this should be really obvious considering one of these is a player i voted and the other one isn't. i think PF is likelier scum.

If you're sure about this, cool. I'll sheep you on this read.

[Michael Scott]

That's why I wanted you to make a high confidence read on either of Pint, ProFlavor

Are you 90+% on Alch town?

[Michael Scott]

"PF scum if jjh town", wait wut?
Tell me where to go if jjh is scum.

[Michael Scott]

Varsoon, motivated now?

[Michael Scott]

I asked Volxen not to make any cases now, we think we have a couple of strong leads; however, I want to see how the day plays out first.

Also, I think the NK points to either 1. Scum not having a strongman, or 2. AC's reads being right -- I doubt if both were false, they'd be the NK.

Thoughts?

[Michael Scott]

Look at the D1 votecounts. Do you think I was bussing jjh927's slot even then, over a STW lynch?

[Michael Scott]

You referring to my theory on no strongman, or accuracy of Chara reads, or that I was scum who bussed jjh927 since, like, the beginning?

Chara had Alchemist21 and Firebringer as town (confident enough that they said I can sheep them on it), and ProFlavor/Mewtaph as scum.

[Michael Scott]

I don't want to reveal our thoughts at this stage, because by chance if we're wrong, scum can easily sheep us.
But I'm confident that at worst, we have a 75% chance of winning this game.

Do you really want to hear now, or wait till ProFlavor/Mew/Pint/Alchemist post some?

[Michael Scott]

@Mew: Explain why you didn't drag ProFlavor down?

[Michael Scott]

@ProFlavor: You moved up, because?

[Michael Scott]

Still not really.
Actually incredibly worried that your push for a massclaim was just to out roles like Chara's so that scum would have a roadmap to victory and you bussed JJH to distract from something else.

What do you think he’d be distracting us from? I’m also a bit paranoid but there’s some crazy wifom involved if it really is a bus.

2 BP’s is still feasible imo, but with the fact that 3 claims came out and 1 flipped scum I can’t help but wonder if scum deliberately had 2 members claim BP thinking a bus on one cleared the other and weren’t expecting an actual Town BP claim to happen.

What you are referring to is the fake claim + fake counterclaim gambit, where two scum both make the same fakeclaim in hopes that when one of them is lynched, the other falsely becomes "confirmed town". But remember here that the claim order was 1) Jjh claimed BP first (see: post 2766), 2) T&L(Firebringer) claimed BP second (see: post 2769), and 3) we claimed BP third (see: post 2879). So if we were scum with Jjh, we only get the most out of doing something like that if no townie claimed BP, because no one is going to doubt that there is one town-aligned BP in a 14 player game. So why would we fakeclaim BP after 1) our scumbuddy Jjh fakeclaimed BP and 2) T&L(Firebringer), a townie, claimed BP? You mentioned that if we are scum we

"weren’t expecting an actual town BP claim to happen"

, but it literally happened

BEFORE

we claimed BP, in your hypothetical scenario where we are scum with Jjh and T&L(Firebinger) is town. So if we were scum with Jjh and our plan was to do that gambit to get one of us townlocked, we could have easily aborted the gambit as soon as we saw that T&L(Firebringer) claimed BP after Jjh claimed BP.

And besides all of that, the whole point of the fake claim + fake counterclaim gambit is to claim a role that town is unlikely to have in the first place – that’s the whole point of the gambit. Scum can’t reasonably expect there to be no town-aligned BP roles.

This is a 14-player game with 11 town vs 3 scum. Two town-aligned BP roles sounds right to me.

On the other hand, Almost Chara's flip (town-aligned anti-air unit) 100% confirms that there is a scum-aligned air unit, because otherwise their role would be pointless. You and Mewtaph both claimed Zerg air units. Jjh's fakeclaim was "Zerg hatchery", and his actual role was "Terran Command Center". In the Starcraft II game, The Terran Command Center (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Comma ... _the_Void) ) is the Terran equivalent of the Zerg hatchery (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Hatch ... _the_Void)). Both are the main bases of each respective faction. And notice how each nightkill has the flavor of "marine gunfire", and the Terran faction’s basic unit is the marine (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Marin ... _the_Void)). And Almost Chara's role PM talks about scum air units like observers (from the Protoss faction; see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Obser ... _the_Void)) and Ravens (from the Terran faction; see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Raven ... _the_Void)). So clearly, the flavor in this game is that zerg = town, and scum = definitely Terran and possibly Protoss as well (though we’ve only seen a Terran scum role and a Terran nightkill flavor so far).

With

JJh's actual role (Terran Command Center) being the Terran equivalent of his fakeclaim (Zerg Hatchery)

, it stands to reason that each scum is likely to be given a fakeclaim that has some correspondence to their real role.

So in other words, there is a scum air-unit, they are either a Terran air unit or a Protoss air unit, and their fakeclaim is for a Zerg air unit

. And besides all of that, in my opinion it's extremely unlikely that there would be three-town aligned air units, and that the scum air unit would fakeclaim a ground unit like the zergling (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Zergl ... _the_Void)).

I am 100% certain that one of you or Mewtaph is scum, so today should be about sorting the two of you.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

I think mewtaph is scum. Let us discuss that

I think that too. I'm having problems between MS or ProFlavor being the partner.

I'm getting tired of dealing with the paranoia. Either make a scumcase beyond "They bussed jjh927 to clear themselves" and argue that, or stop the tunneling.

-Auro

[Michael Scott]

I am 100% certain that one of you or Mewtaph is scum, so today should be about sorting the two of you.

Volxen, feel free to post your Alchemist case now, I don't think waiting is gonna give us anything significant.

I feel Varsoon should be able to confirm if the point has merit.

[Michael Scott]

You saying there's probably no strongman pinged me, 'cause it's like saying "there are definately two BPs in the game". If there's no strongman, then I think there's not two BPs

There's also a vigi, also limited shot BP, also no Strongman is just a possibility - more probable that AC were killed for reads.

[Michael Scott]

Fire, what's your read on ProFlavor/Pint? One of them has to be scum.
Also, are you really sure Alch is town, too? Volxen had a flavor-related point against him, I'll give him some time to post it himself.

[Michael Scott]

ProFlavor moving up, away from Varsoon is really scummy.

Firebringer's slot is definitely town, was before he replaced into it.

One of {Alch, Mew} is scum because it's unlikely for scum to fakeclaim whether they're ground/air *plus* unlikely for all air units to be town.

One of {Pint, ProFlavor} is scum because it firstly makes sense for one of the remaining vanilla claims to be scum, and also because Mew+Alch is clearly not W/W, implying one scum in this.

Anyone disagree on any of the above?

[Michael Scott]

@Firebringer, Varsoon: Pintu is the highest priority read right now. Can you solidify your read on that slot, beyond "gut"?

[Michael Scott]

Mew, tell me your preferred lynch between Pintu and ProFlavor, and detail why.

[Michael Scott]

We have to figure who's town in {ProFlavor, Pintu, Alchemist, Mew}.

Pintu is the closest to a townread from that four, but if I take him to be town, we simply lynch the other three - correct. That's why I want everyone to be confident in their reads on the slot.

Alch and Mew seem like unlikely scum buddies also because of their aggressive 1v1 in D1, double-iso them and tell me if you feel like it's scum theater.

[Michael Scott]

Reasons for Pintu being town:
1. His pushes on us, he keeps retracting - Organic, doesn't seem agenda-driven
2. URAP2 hard townread Pintu and died, you don't kill obvtown just cause obvtown if they wrongly townread you
3. His pushing jjh the way he did, and suspicion that we were drawing a lynch away from jjh - Conviction that I don't see coming from scum in that position
4. Had jjh927's slot in his preferred lynches in D1 consistently

[Michael Scott]

If we can all agree on Pintu town, we should go ProFlavor->Mewtaph->Alchemist.

[Michael Scott]

Yes, I'd prefer you detail why. Any reasons in addition to mine on why Pintu is town?

[Michael Scott]

The confusing part right now is that Mewtaph wants a ProFlavor lynch - which is really weird for a {Mew, ProFlavor} scumteam; however, if {ProFlavor, Alch} is the scumteam then why would Alch place ProFlavor at L-1 in D2? I need to check again but I remember something of that sort happened.

[Michael Scott]

Whatever

VOTE: ProFlavor

7-5 now.

Stw at L-1

Proflavor at L-3

VOTE: ProFlavor

[Michael Scott]

Do we go ProFlavor->Alch->Mew then?

[Michael Scott]

Please do read D1 votes tho - I'm still disturbed about Alch putting ProFlavor at L-2 and not removing his vote when ProFlavor was the major counterwagon to Shoshin. :$

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph, help me see how a ProFlavor-Alchemist team is viable here, given all the interactions between their slots. Because I'm not able to see that as a likely scumteam.

[Michael Scott]

Both were at L-2 with Alch's being the latest vote. Had Varsoon not fake-guiltied STW, there were good chances ProFlavor would've been the day's lynch.

[Michael Scott]

One more thing in support of Mew being town, which crossed my mind and Volxen brought it up too: jjh927's Zerg fakeclaim had a Terran equivalent. Mewtaph's role, Zerg Viper with drag (which is the "abduct" ability from a quick web search) seems to have no Terran counterpart - both from my searches and Volxen's own knowledge of StarCraft. The implication is that Mew's claim is legit; not a fakeclaim.

While I want to believe this argument, I don't think the mod would assign roles which could be flavor gamed; however, if the hypothesis is wrong, then what IS a good Terran equivalent? I'd especially like to hear Varsoon's opinion on this.

[Michael Scott]

And your take on 3121?

[Michael Scott]

Whoever realizes why gets brownie points, go

Go ahead and enlighten us, yourself.

[Michael Scott]

Do it again then?

[Michael Scott]

And why does that make me scum?

[Michael Scott]

Umm, in 2766 he did say it was a hatchery though? Where exactly did I "slip" by saying it?

[Michael Scott]

Oh, you mean our assumption that when he said he was a drone/hatchery, we assumed that was the fakeclaim given to him? Why is that not a reasonable assumption to make?

[Michael Scott]

Umm, that's not a slip. It's pretty clear that he used his fakeclaim during the massclaim, and even though the fakeclaim wasn't provided with the flip, it's really likely that the one he mentioned was the fakeclaim. There's still a small chance he "came up with his own fakeclaim instead" but I seriously doubt that's the case given 1. There's no reason to, and 2. His general effort levels this game.

[Michael Scott]

Yeah sure, "assumption". Look at the wording of 2766 and then the wording on 3076. Also in your compiled list of claims it said "Drone-->Building" so I'm pretty damn sure you thought the fakeclaim was posted by Krazy and you put the name on thread after jjh flipped.

VOTE: Michael Scott

I made the list; Volxen made the post using the word "Hatchery" and post-flip was when we even began to consider the flavor solves.

Pedit: We still don't know the exact name is "Zerg Hatchery". Volxen just used that phrase.

[Michael Scott]

Also keep in mind Volxen plays StarCraft 2 a lot.

[Michael Scott]

That's quite reachy - if something looks obvious enough, of course we'd say it like a fact.

[Michael Scott]

Lol, and you do realize all the town players here are Zerg/Zerglings, right? Whereas scum aren't, they're all Terrans probably.

[Michael Scott]

Just Wikipedia'd Drones and they're a ground unit by itself too; why not deduce "Zerg Drone" instead of "Zerg Hatchery"? I mean, you can deduce whichever, but say it as a fact?

They're equivalent. Saying "his fakeclaim was Zerg drone" is the same as "his fakeclaim was Zerg Hatchery", but hatchery is what he turns into, so it makes sense to call it "Zerg Hatchery"

[Michael Scott]

But he *was* a Zerg Hatchery.

[Michael Scott]

I mean his (fake) claim*

[Michael Scott]

But he *was* a Zerg Hatchery.

And he *was* a Zerg Drone too. C'mon give me a break you guys are giving me less credit that I deserve, I'm not being daft am I????

No, you are being *super* daft. He claimed drone which turns into a hatchery. Volxen plays the game regularly. There's absolutely NO problem in calling his fakeclaim "Zerg Hatchery" as opposed to "Zerg Drone", especially when Hatchery is the final form or whatever.

[Michael Scott]

I know that. I'm saying that it was obvious enough to Volxen to state it as fact, which shouldn't be a problem; I was focusing on the "Why not Zerg Drone then" part of the argument.

[Michael Scott]

Anyway, ProFlavor -> Alchemist -> Mew; although Pintu's push is pretty bad, it actually makes me think he's town for it (the way he handled it)

[Michael Scott]

VOTE: ProFlavor

[Michael Scott]

I think there are two votes on him right now, as far as I count. 7 alive so 4 to lynch. L-2

[Michael Scott]

Flavor has been very absent for the most part of this game, while active in other games - he just *finished* one as scum. Wonder why the lurk.

[Michael Scott]

That was the hammer.

[Michael Scott]

Alch, thoughts on ProFlavor?

[Michael Scott]

Aren't you Bulletproof?

[Michael Scott]

Oh shit sorry >.> Nevermind.

[Michael Scott]

Well, I am Michael Scott.

[Michael Scott]

Why would he kill Almost Chara though? They were definite on him being town.

[Michael Scott]

Oh nevermind. Leaving AC alive would be bad. I was regretting not asking both Alch and Mew to move to the top to test if moving past AC kills scum; AC wouldn't make it to endgame in any case.

[Michael Scott]

I can't move.

[Michael Scott]

Lol, I see that question as a scumclaim. You're hammered; you are scum, right?

[Michael Scott]

I'm X-shot Bulletproof Ascetic. Both are modifiers, dunno if that makes us "vanilla" or not.

You came to say this *now*? After you're hammered?

[Michael Scott]

Paraphrase your role PM? Cause if it specifically says "Vanilla town" and you're town, that confirms my slot at least.

[Michael Scott]

Check the wording in your PM, if it specifically says "Vanilla TOWN".

[Michael Scott]

Interesting. Also I can't believe you're town - my townread on Pintu's really strong...

[Michael Scott]

Exactly. Does BP+Ascetic count as a "role" or "non-vanilla"?

[Michael Scott]

Genuinely only read the PM yester-game-day

[Michael Scott]

Still not really.
Actually incredibly worried that your push for a massclaim was just to out roles like Chara's so that scum would have a roadmap to victory and you bussed JJH to distract from something else.

What do you think he’d be distracting us from? I’m also a bit paranoid but there’s some crazy wifom involved if it really is a bus.

2 BP’s is still feasible imo, but with the fact that 3 claims came out and 1 flipped scum I can’t help but wonder if scum deliberately had 2 members claim BP thinking a bus on one cleared the other and weren’t expecting an actual Town BP claim to happen.

What you are referring to is the fake claim + fake counterclaim gambit, where two scum both make the same fakeclaim in hopes that when one of them is lynched, the other falsely becomes "confirmed town". But remember here that the claim order was 1) Jjh claimed BP first (see: post 2766), 2) T&L(Firebringer) claimed BP second (see: post 2769), and 3) we claimed BP third (see: post 2879). So if we were scum with Jjh, we only get the most out of doing something like that if no townie claimed BP, because no one is going to doubt that there is one town-aligned BP in a 14 player game. So why would we fakeclaim BP after 1) our scumbuddy Jjh fakeclaimed BP and 2) T&L(Firebringer), a townie, claimed BP? You mentioned that if we are scum we

"weren’t expecting an actual town BP claim to happen"

, but it literally happened

BEFORE

we claimed BP, in your hypothetical scenario where we are scum with Jjh and T&L(Firebinger) is town. So if we were scum with Jjh and our plan was to do that gambit to get one of us townlocked, we could have easily aborted the gambit as soon as we saw that T&L(Firebringer) claimed BP after Jjh claimed BP.

And besides all of that, the whole point of the fake claim + fake counterclaim gambit is to claim a role that town is unlikely to have in the first place – that’s the whole point of the gambit. Scum can’t reasonably expect there to be no town-aligned BP roles.

This is a 14-player game with 11 town vs 3 scum. Two town-aligned BP roles sounds right to me.

On the other hand, Almost Chara's flip (town-aligned anti-air unit) 100% confirms that there is a scum-aligned air unit, because otherwise their role would be pointless. You and Mewtaph both claimed Zerg air units. Jjh's fakeclaim was "Zerg hatchery", and his actual role was "Terran Command Center". In the Starcraft II game, The Terran Command Center (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Comma ... _the_Void) ) is the Terran equivalent of the Zerg hatchery (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Hatch ... _the_Void)). Both are the main bases of each respective faction. And notice how each nightkill has the flavor of "marine gunfire", and the Terran faction’s basic unit is the marine (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Marin ... _the_Void)). And Almost Chara's role PM talks about scum air units like observers (from the Protoss faction; see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Obser ... _the_Void)) and Ravens (from the Terran faction; see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Raven ... _the_Void)). So clearly, the flavor in this game is that zerg = town, and scum = definitely Terran and possibly Protoss as well (though we’ve only seen a Terran scum role and a Terran nightkill flavor so far).

With

JJh's actual role (Terran Command Center) being the Terran equivalent of his fakeclaim (Zerg Hatchery)

, it stands to reason that each scum is likely to be given a fakeclaim that has some correspondence to their real role.

So in other words, there is a scum air-unit, they are either a Terran air unit or a Protoss air unit, and their fakeclaim is for a Zerg air unit

. And besides all of that, in my opinion it's extremely unlikely that there would be three-town aligned air units, and that the scum air unit would fakeclaim a ground unit like the zergling (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Zergl ... _the_Void)).

I am 100% certain that one of you or Mewtaph is scum, so today should be about sorting the two of you.

- Volxen

It’s not just you though. There’s a possibility that T&L were pulling that gambit and it’s a possibility I’m having to consider right now.

Also I wouldn’t just assume scum fakeclaims match their real roles with air/ground stuff. We don’t even know what JJ’s mod-provided fakeclaim was so for all we know he just came up with his own rather than use the one the mod gave him.

The thing is, T&L(Firebringer) claimed BP (see: post 2769) just 22 minutes after Jjh claimed BP (see: post 2766). So if they were scum together pulling the fakeclaim + fake counterclaim gambit, realistically T&L(Firebringer) would want to let a reasonable amount of time go by before "CCing" Jjh to make sure that no townie claimed BP. It's extremely unlikely that scum!T&L(Firebringer) "CC's" scum!Jjh just 22 minutes after Jjh claimed BP. And I also think in general that the BP role is a really bad role to use for the fakeclaim + fake counterclaim gambit, because it's an extremely likely role for town to have.

Why do you think the more likely scenario is that Jjh had a mod-provided fakeclaim that had no correspondence to his actual role (Terran Command Center), and that he decided not to use that mod-provided fakeclaim and instead came up with a fakeclaim that was the Zerg counterpart (Zerg Hatchery) to his actual role? Think about it -- there's a lot of risk to doing that. For one thing, it definitely requires at least somewhat in-depth knowledge of Starcraft lore/gameplay to come up with a good Zerg fakeclaim of your own, which I'm not even sure Jjh has (I don't remember him talking about this anyways). Secondly, even for someone who does have a lot of Starcraft gameplay/lore knowledge, there's the argument that just randomly picking a Zerg unit/building for your fakeclaim is riskier because it might directly conflict or contradict a claim made by an actual townie (e.g., a scum claims ultralisk and then gets CC'd by a townie that is actually an ultralisk). And Jjh claimed before several people other people claimed, so it would be all the more risky for him to do that. And if you look at everyone's claims, no one claimed the same unit/building as another person. And that's the whole point -- the mod-provided fakeclaims are not going to be exactly the same as any of the town roles, as that would make it too easy to narrow down the entire scumteam. Deviating from the mod-provided fakeclaims in favor of coming up with your own fakeclaim just opens you up to unnecessary risk, and I am convinced beyond any doubt that Jjh's fakeclaim (Zerg hatchery) was his mod-provided fakeclaim.

And beyond all of that, there is no denying that there absolutely is a scum-aligned air unit. Almost Chara's flip 100% confirms it. And Varsoon is confirmed town, and we are strongly townreading T&L(Firebringer). Independent of our townread of T&L(Firebringer), as I stated above the theory that scum!T&L(Firebringer) CC's scum!Jjh after only 22 minutes doesn't make sense. And we know that we are town.

Which leaves {Proflavor, Pint, Alchemist, Mewtaph}. A ProFlavor/Pint/Jjh scumteam makes zero sense, because it would mean that two scum (including the scum air unit) both fake claimed town zergling, and that there are really only three town zerglings (STW, URAP2, and Koki). Considering town zergling is the flavor for vanilla townie, I think 4 zerglings/VT's is much more likely than 3 zerglings/VT's. Furthermore, I highly, highly doubt that there are three town aligned air units. Which means that Meph(Nancy and Ari) is one of the Zerg/town air units, one of you or Mewtaph is the other Zerg/town air unit, and the other one is the Terran/scum or Protoss/scum air unit that has a Zerg air unit as your mod-provided fakeclaim.
Which means:

one of {Proflavor, Pint} is scum

one of {Alchemist, Mewtaph} is scum

I’m pretty sure Profii is just scum trolling us here post hammer, and Auro and I are still discussing amongst ourselves who is the wolf between you and Mewtaph.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Go on then-

I was a drone who had to choose a place to

build a

hatchery

N1, and I wanted #7 but apparently was put in #8. Can't move after that.

Now I'm a building and a bulletproof one at that.


So yeah I can't really say I figured out Varsoon's role with just my role PM proficiency. I have crumbed pretty much everything in my role.



Can we not popcorn it? I want Brass next

@Pint, you do realize that Jjh literally claimed that he was a drone that built/turned into a

Hatchery

, right? That's why we said his fakeclaim (Zerg Hatchery) is the Terran equivalent of his actual role (Terran Command Center).

How did you miss that...?

[Michael Scott]

@Volx: That argument has been done and dusted. I suppose there's no need to bring it up again now

[Michael Scott]

And @Alchemist, if you are town here then Mewtaph should be 100% confirmed scum from your point of view. If you are scum, then my hypothesis is that you didn't want to push Mewtaph to lynch today because you knew his green flip would confirm that you are scum, and we are not in lylo yet so it's better for you to try to shade other slots (like us or T&L/Firebringer) that wouldn't confirm you as scum if they got lynched and flipped green. That way you can save Mewtaph as the final mislynch that you push in lylo.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

VOTE: Pintu

LyLo. Volx gave me permission to do this.
Pintu is more-or-less confirmed scum from our perspective, as we don't believe Alch/Mew is W/W.
Volxen strongly felt Mew was his partner due to D1/2 associatives, but the NK makes me doubt that.

[Michael Scott]

Wait, nah, don't wanna throw the game on the off-chance both *are* W/W.

UNVOTE:

[Michael Scott]

We decided to place a day start vote over the night phase. Our belief that Pintu is scum is primarily guided by our belief that you and Alch can't be W/W; we both concurred that you were Pintu's likelier partner from previous day play, but the NK is odd since Firebringer was scumreading Alchemist.

So I'm now considering the small possibility that it just happens that town had only one air unit, and you both bussed each other from the start, and my Pintu townread is, in fact, correct. It's wiser to take time to rule it out.

[Michael Scott]

1. Strong scumread on Alch; if Alch is scum this is an obvious NK
2. Varsoon's more paranoid about me

What do you make of it?

[Michael Scott]

Oh also of course, near-universal townread.

[Michael Scott]

What's your theory?

Pedit: Okay.

[Michael Scott]

We do now know for sure that there are two scum ground units and one scum air unit -- this much is obvious. Jjh's role PM stated that he was a ground unit and that his kill flavor would be "Marine fire". The kill flavor on night 3 was "Marine Fire", and this was

AFTER

Jjh had already been lynched. So there is a second scum ground unit, and there kill flavor is also "Marine Fire". And now we know that the scum air unit's kill flavor is "Blasted by Interceptors", so we now also know that the scum air unit is the Protoss Interceptor (see: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Inter ... oid[/url])

This also why the mod stated (see: post 4) that each nightkill flavor would be distinctive to the scum that put the kill through, and that there would be up to two different nightkill flavors. Because all the scum ground units (in this case there are two of them) have the same kill flavor (in this case "Marine Fire"), and all the scum air units (in this case there is one of them) have the same kill flavor (in this case "Blasted by Interceptors").

Interesting how the scum air unit has not put in a nightkill until

AFTER

Almost Chara (the town-aligned anti-air unit) was taken out of the game. And every night there has been a successful nightkill, which means scum never tried to take out a town-aligned BP unit and failed. And yet tonight the scum air unit was able to take out Firebringer, which means they had the ability to bypass his BP.

The only way Alchemist and Mewtaph could be SvS is if one of them is actually a scum ground unit that fakeclaimed a Zerg air unit, and the other is a scum air unit that fakeclaimed a Zerg air unit. There are

NOT

two scum air units in this game. Based on Jjh's stated fakeclaim (Zerg Hatchery) being the Zerg equivalent of his actual role (Terran Command Center), I find this scenario unlikely. I also find it unlikely because it would mean that Meph (Nancy and Ari) was the only town-aligned air unit. Additionally, I am rereading through the game and Alchemist and Mewtaph don't seem like SvS.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Volx, that rules out Alch/Mew W/W for sure then - let's place the vote on Pintu again?

[Michael Scott]

VOTE: pinturicchio

Yes, let's do that.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

We do now know for sure that there are two scum ground units and one scum air unit -- this much is obvious. Jjh's role PM stated that he was a ground unit and that his kill flavor would be "Marine fire". The kill flavor on night 3 was "Marine Fire", and this was AFTER Jjh had already been lynched.

@Pintu, yes, you are mechanically PoE'd anyway, by the above. This is enough evidence that Alch/Mew aren't W/W.

[Michael Scott]

Sure, keep deepwolfing. What a fucking disaster, I'll be 1v1ing the guys that I've been scumreading since the start of the game, while they townread me in order to have me alive and "PoE" me at the end.

The lack of paranoia after mislynching ProFlavor is so blatantly obvious that it hurts

If you are so confident of us being scum, then why not put your vote on us? Because you want to get a townie to vote for us first so you and your partner can back-to-back vote for us so we can be your fourth and final mislynch?


- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Why the fuck would I vote ProFlavor yesterday if I knew you would come after scum!me knowing that he was going to flip town?

"Coasting", and us having a stronger position on ProFlavor's wagon weakens us slightly if we 1v1 you after the mislynch.

[Michael Scott]

Umm, given our *One scum in Pint/ProFlavor* theory, a ProFlavor townflip would flip you and vice-versa.
Pint/ProFlavor was equivalent to Alch/Mew.

We are sure about the dichotomy. The Firebringer NK made me paranoid momentarily, but the Marine fire point Volxen brought up seals it anyway.

[Michael Scott]

I hate to say it but Mew’s the only one being reasonable here. MS and Pint have both come in with immediate pushes on each other. One of them has to be scum but now I’m not sure if this wasn’t lylo distancing between them. It’s really weird how MS said they talked about voting anyways during the Night but then retracted that vote just 12 minutes later.

Ok that’s a lot of p-edit but I see that pint vote’s back.

Alchemist, Mewtaph is literally

confirmed scum

from your POV if you are town. I explained this at the end of day one -- how can you not see this?

How many times must I repeat that there are exactly TWO scum ground units and ONE scum air unit? It's been proven beyond any doubt through everything that has happened.

You and Mewtaph are not both town, it is simply 100% impossible for the both of you to be town.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Another point that shows you don't have a town thinking here: "let's lynch confscum pint and tomorrow we'll see what happens" when there's clearly no tomorrow

Nah, we're fully intent on solving between Alch and Mew today - it's hilarious to assume we think we can quicklynch you.

[Michael Scott]

No. Both dichotomies were equally valid; optimal play for us was to evaluate which pair had a more confident read. You can probably see us ask the rest about reads on you and/or ProFlavor - the rest of the slots seemed to agree that {Pint, ProFlavor} was more polarised (in terms of how townread you were as opposed to ProFlavor scumread), compared to AlchMew.

Therefore, it made more sense to lynch out of the high-confidence pair.

[Michael Scott]

And you go and vote me to solve between Alch and Mew? So if I'm scum and I decide to vote myself to avoid conversation what do you do? Nope, you didn't think about that 'cause you know it's not happening and that game ends if I die

If you're scum and you vote yourself and die, the game doesn't end, no?

[Michael Scott]

Guess what: I'm a God at LyLo. You're not going to get this win as easy as you thought

Why the fuck would I vote ProFlavor yesterday if I knew you would come after scum!me knowing that he was going to flip town?

If you're a "God of LyLo", why would you say this?

[Michael Scott]

Oh we do have a plan for tomorrow Pint. Here is what it is:

We are 99.99% confident that the scumteam is Pint/Mewtaph/Jjh

I've been rereading through the whole game (up to page 105), and there are tons of interactions/associatives between Pint and Mewtaph that clearly look like SvS, including how they both have treated the Jjh slot (distancing etc.). Whereas Alchemist does not have these kinds of associatives with Pint or Jjh. Still in the process of rereading through the rest of the game and looking at associatives, but Mewtaph has much more partner equity with Pint than Alchemist does.

And Pint is now 100% confirmed scum from our POV due to him not being quickhammered (everyone except for conftown!Varsoon has been posting), so we are treating him as such and thus we can establish associatives without needing to see his flip first.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

You OBVIOUSLY go for the less confident pair so you don't have to solve it in LyLo. Once again, you're justifying a suboptimal play for town

Umm, no. Going for the high confidence pair is good because in case we're wrong (as we were) it gives us a chance to re-evaluate, and in the (prior) likely case we're right, guaranteed win.

[Michael Scott]

@Volx: Firebringer NK seems odd if Mewtaph is scum, because Firebringer strongly scumread Alch.

[Michael Scott]

Also, just because of Pintu's accusations that we weren't trying to solve between Alch and Mew:

@Krazy, can we paste our analyses from the Discord channel here?

[Michael Scott]

I hate to say it but Mew’s the only one being reasonable here. MS and Pint have both come in with immediate pushes on each other. One of them has to be scum but now I’m not sure if this wasn’t lylo distancing between them. It’s really weird how MS said they talked about voting anyways during the Night but then retracted that vote just 12 minutes later.

Ok that’s a lot of p-edit but I see that pint vote’s back.

Alchemist, Mewtaph is literally

confirmed scum

from your POV if you are town. I explained this at the end of day one -- how can you not see this?

How many times must I repeat that there are exactly TWO scum ground units and ONE scum air unit? It's been proven beyond any doubt through everything that has happened.

You and Mewtaph are not both town, it is simply 100% impossible for the both of you to be town.

- Volxen

I meant to respond to that post but then the thread got locked yesterday. I’m not going to rely on flavor to solve the game because scum could be lying and even when games seem breakable by flavor they never are.

Alchemist I know you are skeptical of our slot, but everything I am telling you is 100% confirmed through the events that have taken place in this game (the nightkills etc.). This isn't "flavor theory", it's fact. If you want I can literally make a post showing all of the nightkills and such together, along with flip's like Jjh's and the information provided by the mod,

that 100%

PROVES

that there are TWO scum ground units and ONE scum air unit.

You can be skeptical about our slot, but you shouldn't be questioning whether Mewtaph is scum or not from your POV.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

'cause I trusted the rest of the playerlist on ProFlavor and I thought today wouldn't be LyLo. Something that you clearly knew

Umm. No. You asked why scum!you would vote PF knowing that I'd come after you; if you're a God at LyLo you obviously wouldn't be scared of me; hence your point that "scum Pintu wouldn't vote PF" is moot.

[Michael Scott]

You could've wrote whatever, but you didn't go for it yesterday, so it doesn't matter

Solving post-flip, i.e. knowing who was scum out of you and ProFlavor is better, since we know what associations to look for.

[Michael Scott]

@Volx: The break in the hypothesis holds if: Us and Pintu are both scum, one of us ground and one of us air lying. It's consistent with 2 ground and 1 air scum, and from Alch's PoV a possibility.

Air lying that they're ground is a possibility; Ground lying about air isn't since they could be asked to prove it by moving.

[Michael Scott]

Another point that shows you don't have a town thinking here: "let's lynch confscum pint and tomorrow we'll see what happens" when there's clearly no tomorrow

Nah, we're fully intent on solving between Alch and Mew today - it's hilarious to assume we think we can quicklynch you.

And you go and vote me to solve between Alch and Mew? So if I'm scum and I decide to vote myself to avoid conversation what do you do? Nope, you didn't think about that 'cause you know it's not happening and that game ends if I die

We trust that you aren't going to self-hammer, because you've been the deepwolf this entire game and your plan is to take us out today as your fourth and final mislynch. Why would scum!you self-hammer and trust your scumbuddy, Mewtaph, who is not a deepwolf, to carry the game for you in 3-player lylo? I don't think you make this kind of play because you aren't confident that Mewtaph would win in 3-player lylo without you.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

You can look at associations between flipped Alch/Mew too, that doesn't make sense.

Exactly, so we were bothered about solving just one dichotomy. If we decided we would lynch from Alch/Mew, we wouldn't be bothering too much with solving you/PF, because we'd do that better post flip.

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph is probably your partner and you're distancing in case I win the 1v1, since you wont push him today at all

Say, from your PoV, you were scum and us town. Would you expect us to push Mew today? Over you, confscum from our perspective?

[Michael Scott]

Even now you're saying you want to look at who my partner is but you keep going for me to convince the rest I'm scum instead of you and already 99,99% is Mewtaph so you're being inconsistent. If you are already sure it's Mew, then you don't need to discuss it and you're ready to end the day.

I said I'm 99.99% certain your partner is Mewtaph based on my reread of the first 105 pages of the game. I am going to reread through the remaining pages, but yes, you are correct in that I do have Mewtaph as your partner.

And once I become 100% convinced of who your partner is, I will gladly move my vote to them if need be.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

You cannot include timestamps, links to names, or anything else that would directly link to your Hydra Discord PT.

Since I have confirmed hydras have Discord PTs, you can copy the plain text from your discord PT to the game thread, so long as all hyperlinks and any non-plain text is removed.

Hyperlinks including to game posts have to be removed too? Since they were in lieu of quotes.

@Volx: Go ahead and filter the discord chat and paste it ASAP. I'mma go to sleep soon.

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph is probably your partner and you're distancing in case I win the 1v1, since you wont push him today at all

False, once I am 100% certain about who your partner is I would be willing to vote for them.

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph is probably your partner and you're distancing in case I win the 1v1, since you wont push him today at all

Say, from your PoV, you were scum and us town. Would you expect us to push Mew today? Over you, confscum from our perspective?

??? That's what I'm saying, you don't have to push him 'cause you created this 1v1 all along and you'll "solve" it "tomorrow"

I mean if in a hypothetical for you were you're scum and I'm town. Would you expect me to push you, or not?

As Volx said, if we're conf on Mew, we can vote them yes. I'm currently opposed to that especially because of the NK, though.

[Michael Scott]

Even now you're saying you want to look at who my partner is but you keep going for me to convince the rest I'm scum instead of you and already 99,99% is Mewtaph so you're being inconsistent. If you are already sure it's Mew, then you don't need to discuss it and you're ready to end the day.

I said I'm 99.99% certain your partner is Mewtaph based on my reread of the first 105 pages of the game. I am going to reread through the remaining pages, but yes, you are correct in that I do have Mewtaph as your partner.

And once I become 100% convinced of who your partner is, I will gladly move my vote to them if need be.

- Volxen

You won't move your vote ever, you're bluffing to get townread

You think this is a bluff? Just wait and watch then.

- Volxen

[Michael Scott]

Mewtaph is probably your partner and you're distancing in case I win the 1v1, since you wont push him today at all

Then this point is also moot; our not pushing Mewtaph doesn't imply anything. If you independently think we're distancing, sure -- but "since you won't push him" is stupid.

[Michael Scott]

Umm. If both of you are "100% scum" then who we vote is immaterial, no? Right now Mew is NOT 100%, whereas you are, which is why we're voting you.

Wrt the previous: I was combating the implication that us not pushing a slot means we're distancing, but I suppose you meant we CAN distance with the slot since we won't push him. Sure - but I realize that because of the dichotomies, town in each pair would want to lynch the other; and ultimately, I think it'll fall to Varsoon to decide which of the pairs to lynch out of. If we can't convince him to lunch you (our pair) we'll vote Mew.

[Michael Scott]

'cause I trusted the rest of the playerlist on ProFlavor and I thought today wouldn't be LyLo. Something that you clearly knew

Umm. No. You asked why scum!you would vote PF knowing that I'd come after you; if you're a God at LyLo you obviously wouldn't be scared of me; hence your point that "scum Pintu wouldn't vote PF" is moot.

Let me clarify: I'm a town God at LyLo. I think I have never been to LyLo as scum

What would scum!you have done in that scenario? You were trying to push me, but Firebringer townread us.

[Michael Scott]

Why do you think Firebringer was killed?

1. Strong scumread on Alch; if Alch is scum this is an obvious NK
2. Varsoon's more paranoid about me

What do you make of it?

Oh also of course, near-universal townread.

I doubt that's all there is to it.

Also bringing up the strongman yesterday out of nowhere and making that kill to prove the existence of it in order to have an alibi for their fake claim? Genius.

Lol, Alch bringing up your Strongman post reminded me of this - lol, this does look fishy.

[Michael Scott]

I still think that voting Mew would be stupid without solving us first now that you voted me and I wasn't quicklynched, so there is by a fact a scum between us two.

From each of our PoVs, the other is the correct lynch.

From each of Alch/Mew's PoVs, the other is the correct lynch.

The lynch HAS to be from one of our pairs. It's up to Varsoon to decide which.

If, ultimately, he says we lynch from Alch and Mew, we vote Mew.

[Michael Scott]

P-edit what would've done in what case, if I were scum in this game? Again, what's the point. If I'm town I'm 100% convinced you're scum trying to make me look bad, and if I were scum, I would say the same thing I'm saying right now to avoid answering.

So you're saying, as scum you would've sheeped on to ProFlavor too? Then saying "why would scum!me join the ProFlavor wagon" is invalid, since you explicitly say it's the same action you'd take as both alignments from your POV.

[Michael Scott]

So you're saying it's optimal for scum to have pushed in Alch/Mew?
Then me not pushing in Alch/Mew shouldn't be scum-indicative, then, agree?

Besides, trying too aggressively to push in Alch/Mew would've been scummy given the already polarised reads in your pair.

[Michael Scott]

Scum!you pushing Alch/Mew also means your partner potentially gets lynched, though. I get that your strat then would be to NK me and win LyLo; but the same applies to me as well - I'd let my partner die, and NK you to win LyLo against ProFlavor.

[Michael Scott]

Conclusion being that lining up mislynches with ProFlavor first is sub-optimal for scum anyway. So the whole "mislynching to align lynches" as an optimal strategy is false.

Then again it's 3 am here and I'm wayy past my bedtime, just want to see the Megapost Volx should be pasting before I go to bed. Volx, what are you doing?

[Michael Scott]

From our Discord channel:

Volxen:

viewtopic.php?p=10655271#p10655271
Mewtaph does shade both Nico Robin (Jjh) and Pint in that post.
viewtopic.php?p=10655752#p10655752
Alchemist basically copies ProFlavor's read list, and just takes the non-commital stance of "everyone is towny or null"
viewtopic.php?p=10655979#p10655979
Pint criticizes URAP2 for putting Nico Robin (Jjh) at L-1
So pint apparently think it's scummy to put Nico at L-1 at around the page 36 mark, but doesn't find it scummy that Alchemist put STW to L-2 on page 5.
Skimming through the first 36 pages so far, the biggest points against Mewtaph so far would be 1) that he shaded both Nico/Jjh ant Pint in one post and 2) he lurked and didn’t really do or contribute much of anything.
Mewtaph has been consistently on Alchemist since the beginning
viewtopic.php?p=10656699#p10656699
We know that Pint and Jjh are scum. Do you think scum!Mewtaph would shade both of his partners in one post like that?
"I'm not taking Pint having to push his content back as scum indicative but I'm saying it would've been bad if posts along those lines continued, which I guess is pointless now."
His whole bit about saying that Pint "has" to push his content back does seem off/strange.
viewtopic.php?p=10657350#p10657350
And once again, Alchemist takes a non-committal stance. "it's as likely as any other scenario"
viewtopic.php?p=10658342#p10658342
I do feel like Mew made some valid points there
Up through page 45, and Alchemist is one of the most non-committal players, and he seems to be very comfortable being on the sidelines and letting other people go at it.
But the fact that Mewtaph shaded both Nico/Jjh and Pint in one post so early on was definitely pingy.
viewtopic.php?p=10659297#p10659297
Alchemist soft defends Nico/Jjh for voting for STW; claims she voted for for STW just to avoid getting prodded as opposed to it being a serious vote based on Nico actually scumreading STW. Even though Nico never said that was the case,
viewtopic.php?p=10660890#p10660890
Lmfao, wtf? "up for policy lynching Nancy"
That is like face-palm bad.
Interesting how Mew abandoned his Alch push to join STW wagon after STW said that he would be fine with lynching either Nico/Jjh or Mewtaph.
viewtopic.php?p=10660915#p10660915
Mewtaph now has Pint as a townread, claims that Nico/Jjh would be a bad lynch on day one because it would be a "no info" lynch, but doesn't give any reasoning beyond that for not wanting to lynch Nico/Jjh.
viewtopic.php?p=10660921#p10660921
Mew gives an extremely bad justification for being "OK" with a policy lynch on Nancy.
viewtopic.php?p=10660933#p10660933
Bad shading of STW; could be scum!Mew trying to further justify keeping his vote on STW.





Volxen:
I was hoping the playerlist movements might help us sort Mewtaph vs Alchemist, but they both have been consistently at the bottom of the player list. The major difference is that Alchemist started a few spots above the very bottom, and then after night one he has been consistently at the very bottom of the player list. Mewtaph started at the top of the player list (pos 3), and then after night one he moved all the way down towards the bottom of the player list, and since day two he has been one spot above Alchemist.
Interestingly, Varsoon was at the bottom of the player list, so Mewtaph moved all the way from the top to the bottom of the playerlist, where Varsoon initially was at the beginning of day one.
Neither of them ever flew over Almost Chara, so no way to clear either one of them that way.
Well I mean technically Mewtaph flew over Almost Chara on night one, BUT for night one Almost Chara had to move and root. Night one was the only night where Almost Chara could NOT have killed a scum air unit that flew over them.
I think the scum air unit was likely informed about their being a town-aligned anti-air unit
So if Mewtaph is scum, he knew after night one he couldn't safely move across the player list. Night one was his only opportunity to safely make a big movement across the playerlist without any risk of getting shot down.
Strange how he wants to move all the way from the top to the bottom of the player list on night one, then starting night two he's content to stay right where he is, as the second to last person on the playerlist, right above Alchemist.
it will be even more telling if he makes a big movement in the playerlist tonight, after AC has already been nightkilled.
But then again, Varsoon was initially at the very bottom of the player list, and after night one Alchemist took his place at the very bottom of the player list.



Volxen:

Then again, if scum were informed about a town-aligned anti-air unit, but they didn't know that they couldn't shoot anyone down on night one, then scum!Mewtaph definitely wouldn't have flown from the top all the way down to the bottom of the player list on night one.
That's way too risky for a scum air unit to do that, unless they knew specifically that the town-aligned anti-air unit couldn't shoot anyone down on night one.
In that sense, Alchemist has been much more "conservative" than Mewtaph. Always near or close to the very bottom of the player list.


Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10658090#p10658090
Nancy points out possible distancing between Mewtaph and Pint, and she really wanted to lynch Mewtaph a lot on day one, even moreso than ProFlavor. That could be a large part of why she was nightkilled.
Creature was lynched on day two, and Taly (Creature's predecessor) had {Pint, Mewtaph, Nico(Jjh)} in his scum pile by POE. But then again Creature thought... we were scum, so I don't know.
viewtopic.php?p=10658155#p10658155
.
viewtopic.php?p=10658228#p10658228
Nancy called out the entire scumteam here if it's {Mew, Pint, Nico{jjh}. She also listed Koki here, but he was a lesser scumread for her than Mew/Pint/Nico{JJh}.
viewtopic.php?p=10658237#p10658237
URAP2 was willing to lynch Mewtaph on day one; gets nightkilled on night two.
viewtopic.php?p=10659064#p10659064
Nancy hard cases Nico to establish that her vote on STW is more likely to scum from scum!Nico than town!Nico (because town!Nico is apparently more cautious/hesitant to vote)
viewtopic.php?p=10659294#p10659294
We had our vote on Nico at the time, and Alchemist tried to "redirect" us away from Nico/Jjh to Mewtaph.
viewtopic.php?p=10659424#p10659424
Nancy calls out Mewtaph again
Mewtaph abandons his "push" on Alchemist as soon as ProFlavor voted for him and put him at L-1; this is when Mewtaph switched his vote from Alchemist to STW. He claims he "didn't have the thread presence to push Alchemist".
viewtopic.php?p=10660931#p10660931
So Mewtaph is all over the place -- first he's hard pushing Alchemist, then he inserts himself onto the STW wagon, and then talks about also being willing to wagon Almost Chara.
viewtopic.php?p=10660938#p10660938
Mewtaph avoided your question and gave a bad reason for "not being able" to respond to Alchemist.
viewtopic.php?p=10660940#p10660940
Flavor Leaf believed that Mewtaph was town; removes Profii's L-1 vote.
If the scumteam is {Mewtaph, Pint, Nico/Jjh}, then that means ProFlavors wagon at the end of day one was an all-town wagon, because Mewtaph and Pint were both on the STW wagon, and Jjh was not voting. Flavor Leaf saved Mewtaph from getting lynched and was townreading him; STW was scumreading Mewtaph. So perhaps scum had a vested interest in supporting the STW wagon instead of the ProFlavor wagon, because STW had better reads than ProFlavor?
viewtopic.php?p=10660946#p10660946
Some of the wording here feels fake like "constraining original thought process in the thread" -- what is that even supposed to mean?
And "vectors of attack almost entirely created to protect their TR"
Something about that wording feels fake
Im wondering if, Pint originally townread STW because they are friends
So he "townreads" STW because he genuinely likes The Worst, but then when he sees that STW is hard scumreading Mewtaph, he decides it's best to do a complete 180 on his previous townread of STW and go ahead and support his lynch.
viewtopic.php?p=10661016#p10661016
Just one of many examples of STW calling out Mewtaph on wolfing
.
Could just be a really odd coincidence, but Mewtaph and Pint both used that phrase "whoosh"
viewtopic.php?p=10661025#p10661025
viewtopic.php?p=10661028#p10661028
Mewtaph Literally admits to not wanting to bother sorting STW's slot, then talks about ducking out of the thread.
And he says he doesn't want any part of this
viewtopic.php?p=10661465#p10661465
Varsoon hard defends Mewtaph and calls the wagon on him bad -- could be a large part of why he wasn't nightkilled despite his vig claim on day one.


Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10661777#p10661777
Mewtaph throws shade at us because you said a Nico scum flip would be good/informative
In that same post he townreads Pint and talks about how Pint might be a future mislynch, which literally makes zero sense considering no one was even pushing him at the time.
viewtopic.php?p=10661781#p10661781
Varsoon doubles down on his Mewtaph townread -- and he has survived three night phases after claiming Vig. Coincidence?
"Nancy is acting as a huge obstacle to me pushing him at all and reflecting votes onto me in a very destructive manner"
viewtopic.php?p=10660921#p10660921
That may be one of the most ridiculous sentences I've ever seen in a mafia game.
viewtopic.php?p=10662398#p10662398
Mewtaph talks about "diffusing hostility between Meph and STW", but there was literally never any hostility between them, and Nancy calls Mewtaph out of this.
viewtopic.php?p=10662524#p10662524 URAP2 again calls out Mewtaph on being fake
viewtopic.php?p=10662568#p10662568
Nancy was townreading Alchemist for meta reasons -- his posting in this game on day one was apparently similar to how he posted in another game they played together. Not sure I would put too much stock in this though, considering it's a meta read based on one game.

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10662721#p10662721
Nancy points out that Mewtaph's reaction to his wagon on day one in this game was completely different than how he reacted to getting wagoned as town in their last game together.
viewtopic.php?p=10662742#p10662742
Flavor Leaf calls Mewtaph the towniest person in the game

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10664419#p10664419
This was just a bizzare, if not wolfy, pop in from Mewtaph
At the time he made that post, he hadn't posted in the thread for about 30 hours
He pops in to say "why start a wagon on Pint"? when only two people were voting for Pint, and the real wagons being talked about were STW and Mewtaph.
So he pops into..... preemptively discourage a non-existent wagon on Pint
That seems like it could be very scum partner indicative
Why does town!Mewtaph pop in to the thread after 30 hours of not posting to discourage a wagon on Pint when that wasn't even really happening?
viewtopic.php?p=10664442#p10664442
URAP2 calls Mewtaph out on this as well
viewtopic.php?p=10664461#p10664461
Mewtaph is really critical, and almost seems concerned with URAP2 bringing up Pint's name as a scumread
viewtopic.php?p=10664610#p10664610
That's wolfy as fuck lmfao
"Yeah, I'm not super passionate about STW being scum enough to case them, but ultimately I'm comfortable with voting there considering momentum elsewhere seems dubious."
So he pops in
preemptively discourages a wagon on Pint
Claims he is townreading Pint
But then after URAP2 votes for Pint, Mewtaph joins in and votes pint
I think he know realistically, though, that Pint wouldn't be lynched
Because of how hard Varsoon was pushing STW
viewtopic.php?p=10664644#p10664644
viewtopic.php?p=10664654#p10664654
Lmfao
Just Lmfao.
viewtopic.php?p=10664713#p10664713
Just 30 minutes after putting his vote on Pint, he puts it back on STW and says "eh not feeling it" (in reference to his previous vote on Pint)
Distancing vote but he wasn't willing to bus Pint
viewtopic.php?p=10664753#p10664753
STW had both Nico/Jjh in his scum pile VIA POE; he didn't have a strong read on Pint, but I think that was mainly because Pint was recovering from surgery on day one. But it does make sense scum would want to take him out.
There are so many bad things in Mewtaph's ISO in the first 64 pages it's unreal.
Nancy has by far the most accurate reads in the first 64 pages, no wonder she was nightkilled. Like for example here, she talks about how if she where to remove her vote on Mewtaph, it would be to put it on Nico/Jjh instead:
viewtopic.php?p=10664757#p10664757
viewtopic.php?p=10664837#p10664837
Nancy directly ties Mew's alignment's to Pint's alignment. "if one flips red, the other most likely flips red"



Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10665126#p10665126
Alchemist state's that he's willing to "compromise" and vote for Koki even though he thinks Koki will probably flip green and be a low-info lynch.
viewtopic.php?p=10665205#p10665205
Once again, Nancy states that's Mew's alignment is directly tied to Pint's alignment
First half of the game has me convinced that the scumteam is {Pint, Mewtaph, Jjh}, and that Alchemist unfortunately posts/plays in a way where he inadvertently makes himself look sketchy (by being non-committal, etc.). There's a ton of associative tells between Mewtaph and {Pint, Nico/Jjh}, especially between Mewtaph and Pint particular. But I'll skim through the whole game.
viewtopic.php?p=10665228#p10665228
So Pint claims that Mew had "done nothing" (false), and then based on that claims that the wagon is bad and "Mew is probably town being pushed by scum for an easy mislynch".
This was just blatantly false, because the people who were voting for Mewtaph made it very clear why they were doing so.
And lol, he acts like he is completely oblivious to the fact that STW was wagoned
He basically used your question to him ("What do you think of Mewtaph") to discourage/discredit the wagon on Mewtaph, without giving any explanation as to WHY he is townreading Mewtaph. The only thing he said was that Mewtaph had done nothing, and that..... led him to townread Mewtaph.
So Pint steps in to discourage the very real Mewtaph wagon that was forming as the counter-wagon to STW
Previously, Mewtaph stepped in to discourage a wagon from forming on Pint, when there really wasn't even a threat of that happening.
Mewtaph puts his vote on Pint for 30 minutes, then put's it back on STW.
Tons and tons of interactions that look they are obviously scum partners.

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10665289#p10665289
Once again Nancy states that Mew and Pint are the same alignment

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10665458#p10665458
Nancy brings up meta to suggest scum!Mew
She brought up a "rudeness tell" for Mew, that he is more aggressive, and in some cases downright rude, as scum.


Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10665857#p10665857
Pint talks about how URAP2 has "redeemed himself” but doesn't unvote him and keeps his vote on him for an entire day.

Auro:
So Pint+Mewtaph?

Volxen:
It definitely looks that way from the first 73 pages, but I'll keep going and pointing out scummy things. But Alch so far doesn't really have any strong asscoatives with either Nico or Pint, whereas there are clear associatives between Mewtaph and Nico/Jjh and Pint (in addition to just his general scummy behavior).
Nancy repeatedly said Alchemist was town, and Almost Chara's dying words were "Firebringer and Alchemist are town", so that's worth taking into account.
To quote The Worst, when viewed "holistically" Mewtaph absolutely has more scum equity than Alchemist.
viewtopic.php?p=10665913#p10665913
Pint chainsaw defends Mewtaph by attacking Alch here
He says that Alch's vote on Mewtaph was "OMGUSy"
viewtopic.php?p=10665981#p10665981
Fair point from Alch; Mew did put his vote on Alch at the beginning of RVS, and kept it there for a long time so if he is scum he was coming up with reasons to justify keeping his RVS vote on Alch.


Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10666207#p10666207
Pint defends Mewtaph by tying his alignment to ProFlavor's alignment, argues that the only way Mewtaph is scum is if he is scum with ProFlavor.
viewtopic.php?p=10666897#p10666897
No one had even close as accurate of reads as Nancy did on day one; has the entire scumteam plus one other person (ProFlavor) in her scum pile
viewtopic.php?p=10666944#p10666944
viewtopic.php?p=10667190#p10667190
Pint does some light distancing of Nico, but never pursues it but doubles down on wanting to lynch us (before joining the STW wagon)
At that time he also states,
"Scum is in {Creature, jjh, Kokichi, Michael Scott}"
Not much later, he is on the STW wagon
viewtopic.php?p=10667198#p10667198
Pint defends Mewtaph, says his reaction to his wagon was "great", and regurgitates an earlier point made by you that Nancy defends her townreads by attacking whoever scumreads them.
viewtopic.php?p=10667200#p10667200
Pint uses Alch's reaction to Mewtaph to further try and establish Mewtaph as town ("Mew and Alch are TvT")
viewtopic.php?p=10667202#p10667202
Pint is just being hypocritical here, because Pint himself was in Varsoon's list of players "not taking a stance"
viewtopic.php?p=10667218#p10667218
Pint says STW would be a "compromise lynch"
viewtopic.php?p=10667224#p10667224
Pint points out that Mewtaph voted for him and then quickly changes his vote to STW, and says "not good" -- but that it, he's implying it was scummy for Mewtaph to do that, but doesn't vote him
viewtopic.php?p=10667240#p10667240
Pint says he "changed his mind" and votes for STW with literally no reason listed
And this was just after he shaded Mewtaph a bit

viewtopic.php?p=10667261#p10667261
Pint lists Meph's slot as a townread "mainly because of Ari's posting", even though Nancy posted 90%+ of the content from that slot.

viewtopic.php?p=10667955#p10667955
But I called him out on his 180 on STW, and he still never explained why he did a 180 on STW and started scumreading him, only saying that his previous reads were "lazy"
viewtopic.php?p=10667961#p10667961
Pint chainsaw defends Mewtaph again

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10668803#p10668803
Pint never explains what "associations" between us and STW made him look like scum and never had an original reason of his own for joining the STW wagon.
So his whole strategy was to had pocket ProFlavor, who was in turn hard pocketing Varsoon. He keeps regurgitating points brought up by ProFlavor to defend his transition onto the STW wagon.



Auro:
Pocket ProFlavor, make shitty pushes and keep retracting them, try to look townie in general
There's no real scumhunting in his ISO
But that's an accusation we can make of other slots too, lol

Volxen:
And the only reason ProFlavor thought we could be scum with STW is because we didn't want to vote him, I mean that LITERALY was all there was to it -- and Pint immediately jumped on this bad reasoning to justify his own vote for STW, by saying ProFlavor made a strong case for a scum!Michael Scott + scum!STW team.

Auro:
Pre-flip associatives are stupid.
ProFlavor's argument itself was terrible.
I've never seen anything more circular.
I called him out on it D1, lol

Volxen:
And Pint knew ProFlavor would come out looking bad, because he was the one to make the argument, and Pint just agreed with it.
viewtopic.php?p=10668834#p10668834
Pint again admits he doesn't have an original reason for scumreading STW ("I'm scumreading you because of what other people said")

Auro:
Exactly, he was just coasting.
Not really scumhunting, just sheeping the wrong people, generally coasting.
We've been very clear with our hunting and pushes.
I hope Firebringer will see that.

Volxen:
I do wish Alchemist would have towned it up more, he could made this easier on us...

Auro:
Constant paranoia on our slot didn't help

Volxen:
Hm, another thing I noticed is that at the end of day 1, Mewtaph was at top the of list (pos 2), Pint was in the middle (6), but then after night one Pint moved to the very top of the list (pos 1), and Mewtaph moved to the second-to-bottom of the list (above Alchemist, who was at the very bottom). While Jjh stayed in the middle-ish of the list, around spot 8.
So they clearly wanted to spread out across the playerlist, probably because it benefits certain actions they have
Mewtaph must have been informed that night one was his only chance to safely move across the playerlist with no risk of getting shot down
viewtopic.php?p=10673947#p10673947
This felt extremely wolfy, his first post of the day is to automatically assume that scum nightkilled Nancy specifically to frame him (Mewtaph that is)
And he called Nancy obvtown in that post after previously wanting to policy lynch her lol, sigh

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10675510#p10675510
Pint lightly shades Jjh

Volxen:

viewtopic.php?p=10677670#p10677670
Pint votes for Creature and joins the wagon with no reason of his own -- just mentions that Creature should be prodded.
viewtopic.php?p=10677688#p10677688
viewtopic.php?p=10677693#p10677693
Alchemist talks about wanting to wagon Mewtaph again; Pint immediately steps in to say Mewtaph is town.
viewtopic.php?p=10677760#p10677760
Pint immediately jumps on board with Mewtaph's theory that scum nightkilled Nancy to frame Mewtaph.
If successful, this allows them to 1) "get away" with nightkilling one of the strongest/most dangerous town players (Nancy) and 2) at the same time use it to try and townlock Mewtaph via the theory that he is being framed as opposed to scum taking out the greatest threat to Mewtaph
viewtopic.php?p=10677820#p10677820
Good point Alch brought up in response to Pint ("why would scum!Mewtaph leave Nancy alive if he is afraid of presure?")
viewtopic.php?p=10677853#p10677853
Pint continues to use Nancy's nightkill to 1) establish Mewtaph as locktown who is being framed and 2) to establish us and Creature as scum
Notice how Mewtaph just simply came out and said "Hey I think I'm being framed"
Then Pint takes that and expands on that and turns it into essentially an essay on why Mewtaph is being framed, and how simultaneously that Nancy's nightkill proves that she was wrong on one of her scumreads (Mewtaph), and wrong on two of her townreads (Michael Scott and Creature).
viewtopic.php?p=10678419#p10678419
Something along these lines might explain why Mewtaph moved all the way down in the playerlist towards Varsoon's original position. Perhaps that somehow would protect scum from a vigkill, by having Mewtaph close to Varsoon. But after Varsoon moved on night one, he couldn't move again to try to get close to Varsoon again because starting night two, AC would have shot Mewtaph if he had flown over them.

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10680666#p10680666
Pint defends Mewtaph flying all the way down to the bottom of the list
viewtopic.php?p=10680697#p10680697
Pint says he doesn't like the Creature wagon, yet he is on it and doesn't really seem to want to change anything or start another wagon
viewtopic.php?p=10680915#p10680915
Mewtaph sheep's Varrsoon and Creature onto our wagon with no explanation given

Auro:
Mewtaph was on jjh wagon too though
You think they were bussing?

Volxen:
viewtopic.php?p=10682589#p10682589
Pint shades Jjh (again)
viewtopic.php?p=10682777#p10682777
Mewtaph votes Jjh
Yes, shading/distancing


Auro:
Bussing. jjh was the counterwagon to Creature
And it totally could've gone through.

Volxen:
I think they genuinely didn't care about losing Jjh, because he was like 100% disengaged from the game anyways

Auro:
Hmm, maybe.

Volxen:

They figured he would probably be going at some point anyways
Interesting how Pint's shade post was essentially used a springboard by Mew to vote for Jjh
The two posts were back-to-back
viewtopic.php?p=10683166#p10683166
Jjh shades Pintu
viewtopic.php?p=10683181#p10683181
Pint continues to shade Jjh
But doesn't vote him -- I don't think Mewtaph and Pint would both want to be on Jjh's wagon for VCA reasons, safer to have one scum bus and the other stay off the wagon.

[Michael Scott]

Oh and also, about Mew's positioning with respect to Almost Chara killing them: AC's role meant that they could destroy the interceptors that the air unit would use to kill, meaning they would act like a BP for players close to them, not that they would kill the scum air unit if they passed them. That's why MS being bulletproof after AC and Firebringer's flips doesn't make sense setup-wise.

Alchemist, claim pls
Also reads?

Town Mutalisk. I’m a flying unit that can move anywhere I want but I never moved because I didn’t see the point.

I’m Townreading Brass and AC, scumreading Mew. I think ProFlavor is scum if Mew flips scum PR.

Everyone else (except Varsoon) I’m not sure on and will need to try and figure them out this Day.

Zerg viper - flying, move anywhere, drags
Move as close to position 13 as possible, drag Alchemist below
Move as close to position 11 as possible, drag Alchemist below

Our forces are under attack!

The telepathic message rippled through the zerg forces simultaneously with the audible sound: assault rifles.

At once the zerg forces moved to the point of attack--they must defend the hive! This is our planet, our world, and these aggressors must be destroyed.

In the creep of the colony, the footsteps were still clearly visible: the recognizable sign of marine boots. But the marines themselves were gone.

And their deed was grisly. The hive quelled as the available supply cap dropped down, as though one of the great eyes of the hive had been ripped out.

Scraps of Mephistophanes 39 had been blown out of the sky, and finally the great beast had collapsed into the creep on the ground. The great eye of the Overseer looked out over the hive one final time, and then closed forever.

Mephistophanes 39 has been killed by Marine Fire!

They were a...

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Zerg Overseer

Welcome to Starcraft Mafia: 2!

You are a zerg overseer, a

town watcher

.

You are an air unit.

Each night, you can both:
a) target a player to see who targeted them with night actions.
b) move three spots up or down in the player list.

Win:

You win when the three-man mafia team has been removed.

Game thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=78296

Confirm:

Please confirm by responding with your alignment and role name

Almost Chara was killed by Marine Fire! He was a...

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Zerg Spore Crawler

Welcome to Starcraft Mafia: 2!

You are a zerg spore crawler, a

town ninja-negating anti-air defense

.

You are a ground unit. You are a building.

You are novice (uprooted). You must spend night 1 moving to a point in the player list, and then rooting there. You will not be able to move again afterward.

After you are rooted (starting on night 2), you will automatically do the following each night:
a) Prevent killing actions two slots above and below you in the current player list from being affected by the "ninja" modifier, in addition to your own position. (This applies to victims/targets; it will not passively remove the ninja modifier from any role with the ninja modifier that is attacking targets outside your range)
b) automatically kill two ENEMY "light" air units, such as interceptors, phoenixes, observers, oracles, or ravens, that pass over your position in the player list. You will not attack friendly light air units, such as mutalisks or scourges.

Win:

You win when the three-man mafia team has been removed.

Game thread here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=78296

Confirm:

Please confirm by responding with your alignment and role name

Votecount 4.1

Not Voting (7): Varsoon(0), Michael Scott(0), Firebringer(0), Mewtaph(0), Alchemist21(0), ProFlavor(0), pinturicchio(0)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-02-15 13:13:57)

MOD REMINDERS

Day 4 begins!

FLAVOR

Spoiler:

I'm not convinced that their role PM specifically means to block the interceptor shots, since their role PM also talks about not killing friendly air units like (Mutalisks), which is what Alchemist claims to be. Their role PM specifically makes a contrast about killing enemy air units (like the Protoss interceptor) vs not killing friendly air units (like the Zerg mutalisk) that fly over them. So why couldn't it be the case that the scum air unit's role is simply "Protoss Interceptor", and if they were to fly over Almost Chara on night two or later, they would be shot down and killed? If scum is informed about this kind of town-aligned anti-air unit then it would be balanced, since moving in the playerlist is always optional, and Almost Chara couldn't move after night one anyways. I don't see anything in their role PM that specifically prohibits that from being the case. And Alchemist claimed to be a Zerg Mutalisk that can't kill, but rather can move anywhere in the playerlist -- so why would that distinction about not shooting down friendly units need to be made if Almost Chara didn't have the ability to shoot down any player (scum or town) to begin with? When it talks about not shooting down friendly units it can't be talking about not blocking a friendly unit's shot, since neither Alchemist nor Mewtaph claimed to be able to kill with their role. And Meph (Nancy and Ari) weren't able to kill with their role either. It's talking about the fact that if a friendly air unit itself passed over Almost Chara (such as the Zerg Mutalisk), that player would not be shot down and killed.

So it's entirely plausable that the scum air unit's role is "Protoss Interceptor" and that they would have been shot down had they passed over Almost Chara on the playerlist on night 2 or a subsequent night. This could also explain why Mewtaph made a big movement from the top of the playerlist all the way to the bottom of the playerlist on night one, and then stayed at the bottom of the playerlist from there on out.

You're just using this to try and argue that we "have" to be scum via there being "too many BP's".

[Michael Scott]

^

The above post was written by Volxen.

[Michael Scott]

If my partner would've got lynched, I still have my town equity. You dissolved my town equity by lynching ProFlavor first. If your partner died yesterday, you would've had to deal with Fire who was obvtown, me obvtown, Varsoon conftown, Alch/Mew conftown from the dichotomy you pushed for and ProFlavor. You would've pushed ProFlavor and get me to LyLo with whoever you were more comfortable to get me lynched. But that whole situation is far more risky than just lynching ProFlavor and pushing me. That's the difference between you and me: I know that as scum I would've risked it to avoid this 1v1 with you 'cause I know I'm looking worse than you right now. You don't have that situation 'cause you knew you were going to look better than me. So by that, you could play it safe and not risk your partner; I, instead, would've had to risk it to avoid this situation.

1. If I was pushing in Alch/Mew as a plan why wouldn't I push my non-partner first?
2. Getting the right lynch means we simply NK the other... So we have to "line up" lynches within you and ProFlavor, same situation... Except we'd have even more town equity from having lynched our partner.

So your grand scumcase is that I had to "line up lynches" exactly in a way such that I'd take you to LyLo with the right player so I can get a mislynch... And you also acknowledge you look worse than us right now, which wouldn't get better if we pushed another scumflip yesterday. Flimsy case

You still haven't convinced anyone that our rationale for lynching in your pair due to higher confidence is bad.

[Michael Scott]

Votecount 1.9

NicoRobin(5)

~ Michael Scott(56), Varsoon(132), Mephistophanes 39(181), Shoshin the worst(140), u r a person 2(72)

u r a person 2(3)

~ ProFlavor(41), pinturicchio(34), Tibor and Lumia(61)

Kokichi Oma(2)

~ Taly(48), Almost Chara(56)

Alchemist21(1)

~ Mewtaph(4)


Not Voting (3): Kokichi Oma(8), NicoRobin(3), Alchemist21(48)

With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-01-16 22:06:46)

FLAVOR

Spoiler:

Since you said to look for D1 associations. You just distanced from the slot for most part of the game. Pushing it without a vote isn't town-indicative.

We were the first vote on him as a major D1 wagon, when his slot getting lynched was a real possibility.