2016 NFL Football

[Wraith]

Brady is out first 4 games this year. I foresee 1-3 start for them.

I think what will decide the winner of the afc east comes down to whether or not fritz comes back

Patriots should shut out the Jets if Geno is at the helm and finish 11-5, otherwise 10-6 is more likely

The first seed is ours!

[Wraith]

iwannadie.jpg

[Wraith]

So that Dak Prescott might be Romo's heir on the Cowboys.

[Wraith]

Fuck, I really like Teddy B and the Vikings too.

Though this now raises the potential of a Bears dark horse run which I'd be interested to see as well.

[Wraith]

Start-of-season predictions are rather useless so far in advance TBH but fuck it.

AFCN

(confident)

PIT:

Obviously a homer pick, but our defense is on the rise and I believe our offense can stay top-10 easily even with all the suspensions, provided we don't suffer from the injury bug again. This is a "Super Bowl or Bust" year due to Bell's likely departure in the offseason, and it's probably our best shot considering the Pats (our kryptonite) can potentially miss the playoff against all expectations. My pick for #1 seed this year.

CIN:

I badly underestimated the Bengals last season, largely because I failed to take their huge number of injuries in 2014 into account for their decline that season. Andy Dalton really came into his own, and I don't think the departure of Jones and Sanu are

that

big of losses. My #5 seed, and a team that can easily go #1 if the Steelers slip due to injuries/suspensions.

BAL:

I might be overestimating the Ravens, but despite their poor season last year the Ratbirds are a team that rarely stays on the ground for long. They caught the biggest injury bug in the league last year and I expect them to bounce back to at least a 9-7. I would not be surprised if they snuck into the playoffs.

CLE:

The Browns are going to have a rough season as they try this newfangled "have patience with the rebuild" strategy they've been hearing about from the Vikings, Raiders, and Jaguars. Top-5 draft pick once again this year.

AFCE

(i don't even fucking know)

MIA:

This division is so unpredictable this year I really don't know who to pick to win it. I'm really high on Adam Gase and have a "lolJets" bias, so I'm going bold here and picking the Dolphins to barely edge out the Pats and steal the #4 seed. They have a defense with high potential and I'm a fan of Tannehill, he's super underrated IMO.

NE:

I could easily be dead wrong about this of course, but with injuries and suspensions I think the Pats might get bumped out of the playoffs this year a la 2008. If so, get used to seeing the Steelers in the Super Bowl IMO.

BUF:

The Bills are another very tough team to judge. I've been getting lower on Rex Ryan as a coach every year, and I still think the Bills have some changes to make and young players to pick in order to make their new 3-4 scheme work properly. They had an excellent defense in 2014 that utterly collapsed with the scheme change in 2015. I expect them to hover around .500 again provided Tyrod Taylor doesn't suddenly return to mediocrity, which I hoenstly don't think will happen.

NYJ:

I have a "lolJets" bias as said, meaning I don't think much of this team. They're not favored in any of their first six games, and Fitzpatrick is one of the least consistent QBs in the league, alternating between Fitzmagic and Fitztragic on a weekly basis. I think Fitz will regress this season as Brandon Marshall gets older. I also think Christian Hackenberg will work out great for the Jets as their future franchise QB. Somehow that has become a controversial opinion on the internet.

AFCS

(can vary)

IND:

Luck returns to form this year. It's been absolutely ridiculous how the prevailing circlejerk has turned him from "best young franchise QB in the league hands down" to "literally the new Jay Cutler." Idiots. But the Colts aren't breaking that ceiling to reach the Super Bowl until they fire their GM and/or actually get a defense. My pick for #2 seed.

HOU:

The Texans could easily leap the Colts for the division if Osweiler pays off (I think he'll be fine) simply due to their vastly superior defense. Their floor is 8-8 unless Osweiler implodes, which IMO is highly unlikely. My pick for #6 seed, but they could definitely compete with the Pats and Chiefs for it.

JAX:

One of my dark horse picks despite statistics being against them on the defensive side. I picked them as a potential wild card months ago but I've since walked back on that due to rumors of injury to Jalen Ramsey. Their ceiling is 9-7, their floor is 6-10 IMO. That young offense is dangerous and they have quite a few interesting pieces on defense as well.

TEN:

It's a stereotypical thing to say, but the Titans remain just forgettable. Mariota should continue to do fine, but they don't have many exciting pieces on offense. Despite this, their defense is better than I gave them credit for last year, and in a few years, with continued steady drafting, they should be a contender once again.

AFCW

(confident)

OAK:

Winning this division is a toss-up between the Raiders and Chiefs, but I'm really high on the Raiders this year. They were a surprisingly dangerous team last year, and I expect that offense and defense will continue to develop into explosive units. They can definitely win head-to-head against the Chiefs, if only because the Chiefs coaches misuse Marcus Peters badly against Amari Cooper

KC:

The Chiefs still have a very scary defense, but could definitely take a step back due to Justin Houston's injury. I'm also low on Andy Reid due to his clock management (seriously that last quarter of the KC-NE playoff game was physically painful to watch) and think Carr is developing to become better than Alex Smith at QB. Still, I wouldn't count them out - I did last year when they started 1-5 and regretted it. They'll definitely compete for the division, and at the very least make a mean case for a wild card berth.

DEN:

Amazingly, the Broncos are still being overrated due to their defense. Yeah, it's still scary as hell, and will still compete for being top 5 in the league, but this offense was slow and geriatric under Manning and Osweiler and I don't expect it to improve an inch under some unproven UDFA. Their ceiling is 9-7 and that's a hard cap IMO. I expect them to hover around .500, as I will for the similarly headless defense-heavy Vikings below.

SD:

I think the Chargers are still in disarray, horribly managed, and I get lower on their coach every year. In the past they've made something out of a collection of mediocre talent, but the rise of the Chiefs and Raiders has rendered them largely impotent compared to their glory days. Bosa was drafted into a scheme that doesn't fit what he was in at college as well, I don't think he'll make a big splash early on in his career.

NFCN

(confident)

GB:

With Teddy B going down, the Packers should return to being kings in the north. They underachieved last year compared to expectations though, so this division can still vary even though I'm low on both the Bears and Lions. My #2 seed.

CHI:

Probably a break from the norm here, but I think John Fox is a great fit for the talent level of the Bears - he tends to elevate the average and mediocre and hold back the exceptional. If Cutler can actually stay consistent for one season in his career with the Bears, don't be surprised if these guys sneak into the playoffs on the back of a revamped defense and solid offense - I'm high on Jeremy Langford, and think they made some interesting FA signings at linebacker.

MIN:

Poor Vikings. With a stacked defense and slowly improving offense, this was really their year. But alas, the injury gods that spared them last year have struck with a vengeance early in this one. Like the Broncos, I expect the defense to keep this team hovering near .500.

DET:

At first I was more realistic about the Lions having a dark horse run instead of the Bears, but then I remembered they no longer have Megatron. This defense took a big step back with the departure of Suh last year, and I'm really low on Stafford as a QB and Jim Caldwell as a coach. While they surprised me by ending 7-9 after their god-awful start, I still don't expect this team to do better than 6-10, with Caldwell fired at season end and Teryl Austin promoted in his place.

NFCE

(confident)

NYG:

The Giants were better last year than their record indicates. There's like an insane stat our there that's something like the Giants would have been 12-4 if games were only 58 minutes. Eli Manning has excelled in McAdoo's offense, and I'm eager to see if that will remain the same with him in the head coach's chair. All their defense needs to do is take a slight step forward and they should move past their division rivals. My #4 seed.

WAS:

Personally I feel the Skins overachieved last season due to their division rivals being in disarray. I don't think they'll repeat it, especially in the Giants get their act together defensively. Nevertheless, with the Cowboys headless and Eagles...being the Eagles, I'm loathe to count them out completely.

DAL:

The Cowboys demonstrated last season that they are very, very headless without healthy Romo at the helm. Pity he didn't get the appreciation he deserved until they destroyed his body. They'll probably try to rush him back and he'll take another back injury that ends his career abruptly and for good. Unless, of course, Dak Prescott becomes a new rookie sensation in the regular season - I expect he'll do well as a placeholder and rookie QB, but not amazingly. I'm pretty high about him being their future franchise man, though.

PHI:

The Eagles are a team in transition, that was shockingly butchered and castrated by Chip Kelly's tenure. I was fully behind Kelly's experiment and thought they killed it far too early to see real results, but considering that's what they did...it means Kelly did do lasting, awful damage to this team without a payoff. I definitely see them having another top-10 draft pick as the defense is average and the offense continues to struggle trying to find its new feet.

NFCS

(can vary)

CAR:

Definitely underestimated the Panthers based off their mediocre 2014 season. That's fixed now. While the departure of Norman will certainly be a blow to their defense, there's no reason to believe it won't remain stout. It's actually really shocking how well the offense did last year without Kelvin Benjamin - I don't expect that to change now that he's returned. My #1 seed.

TB:

Definitely a dark horse candidate, and a very tough team to predict. If Doug Martin stays consistent, Mike Evans rebounds from a down year, and Winston continues to improve on a great rookie showing, this is easily a wild card contender. My pick for #6 seed, which I expect to be a battle between the Bears, Bucs, and Skins.

ATL:

The Falcons are just such a disappointing team. They started off so well and had a rather unprecedented collapse to miss the playoffs. The defense

could

continue to improve and the offense could rebound...but Kyle Shanahan is a terrible OC with a terrible scheme that isn't working for Matt Ryan and he has shown no sign that that's going to change. Shanahan will likely end up fired shortly past mid-season as the Falcons hover around .500. They can sneak into a wild card berth but I'm not holding my breath.

NO:

The Saints will stay in the division cellar until they actually get a defense. They're like the Colts in this regard, but with an aging quarterback and in a much tougher division.

NFCW

(can vary)

ARI:

This is the Cardinals "Super Bowl or Bust" year. Their window is rapidly closing with an aging defense and Fitz and Palmer hitting the twilight of their careers. I've been super high on the Cards the past three years (they were my original pick for NFC champ in both 2014 and 2015), but Palmer just choked so, so badly in the NFCCG last year that I don't think they'll make it. The Panthers, Packers, and Seahawks are just better bets in big games. My #3 seed.

SEA:

The Seahawks are somewhat in decline, but still a force to be reckoned with. I really hate the Seahawks these days and root for them to miss the playoffs every year, but with the Vikings fallout out of my playoff picture I've resigned myself to the certainty that the Seahawks will return to the postseason in a wild card berth once again. My #5 seed.

STL:

The Rams ain't going to the postseason until they get of Jeff Fisher, or a meteor strikes either the Seahawks or Cardinals as they practice.

SF:

Yeah...when your team is already in absolute disarray and full of aging former stars, Chip Kelly is probably the worst possible HC hire you could make. This team is headless and apparently without direction, with someone who has come out of nowhere to be a consistent competitor with Dan Snyder and Dean Spanos for the coveted "worst owner in the league" title. They'll compete with Cleveland for the #1 overall pick.

Recap

AFC

1. PIT
2. IND
3. OAK
4. MIA
5. CIN
6. HOU

On The Bubble: BAL, NE, KC

NFC

1. CAR
2. GB
3. ARI
4. NYG
5. SEA
6. TB

On The Bubble: ATL, WAS, CHI, MIN

[Wraith]

Roethlisberger's played all 16 games 3 times in his 12 seasons, is 34 and behind a mediocre at best line. Their star running back is suspended for 3 games, and their #2 wideout is suspended for the season. They lost their experienced, star tight end, and replaced him with whatever's left of Ladarius Green. They didn't significantly improve a below average defence from last season. They're still coached by Mike Tomlin. Tell me again why people are picking them to win their division?

Mate, I'm sorry but you haven't been following us or watching our games enough, because most of what you're saying here is very wrong.

1. Ben's injuries are indeed a high concern, but he's been playing the best football of his career these past two seasons. His age doesn't matter here.
2. Our line is most decidedly

not

"mediocre." Since Mike Munchak came to Pittsburgh to be our OL coach in 2014, our OL has been one of the

best

in the league. David DeCastro just came off a Pro Bowl season. Our line was riddled with injuries last season (Beachum tore his ACL six games in and Pouncey was out from the start) and took a step back from 2014, but not by much. Firstly, Pouncey came back from a far more severe injury in 2014 and looked just like his old All-Pro self - I expect him to repeat that here. While Beachum's departure is a significant loss, he was gone most of last season and Alejandro Villanueva filled in admirably though not excellently. While I have heard he struggled in preseason I don't expect that to last during the regular season. With Pouncey, Foster, and DeCastro, we arguably have the league's best interior line and run blocking and I expect that to continue.
3. Bell being suspended 3 games is no big deal at all. D-Will was amazing in his place most of last season. This isn't the 2014 WC game against Baltimore where losing Bell left us to rely on a washed-up, sign-a-week-ago Ben Tate.
4. Bryant being suspended is significant but should not cripple the offense. So soon people forget that Brown can single-handedly burn

any

secondary in the league, save for the Seahawks. Coates stepped up well during the playoff game against the Broncos, and was specifically drafted as a Bryant clone. The passing attack should be fine.
5. Miller was old and not a very big factor in the passing attack last season. While his blocking will certainly be missed, Miller was no longer a "star" tight end in the receiving sense and was not a big loss. Green's absence is concerning, however.
6. Our defense was not "below average" by any stretch of the word last season, and this common talking point among non-Steelers fans is a pet peeve of mine. Statistically, we were #11 in Points Allowed (the key defensive stat), #3 in Sacks, and #3 in Takeaways. While our secondary continues to need improvement, our pass rush has gradually improved every season - Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt (who has been criminally overlooked) are a mean tag-team of interior linemen, Bud Dupree had a very promising rookie showing, Timmons remains an elite inside linebacker, and Shazier is a fearsome force to be reckoned with so long as he avoids injury (see his monstrous contribution in the WC game vs the Bengals). The only area we were below average in defensively was Yards Allowed, which is not surprising considering the state of the secondary and also rather meaningless compared to Points Allowed.
7. I don't know why you apparently have a problem with Tomlin. He's never had a losing season. Arguably his biggest flaw as a coach is that he takes too many gambles for extra points.

I've been picking us over Cincy because of homerism (and we have a very easy schedule at a glance - our most dangerous opponents are largely division rivals), so I'm surprised many in this thread share that opinion. Cincy and Baltimore will give us mean competition and the race for the division win will be tight, but make no mistake, we are easily a Super Bowl contender.

[Wraith]

Do people actually think the Texans D is good or is that just code for "have JJ Watt and that's enough"

The Houston defense is

very

good and is consistently so. Last season alone, they were #7 in Points Allowed and tied several ways for #10 in Turnover Differential. They were also #3 in Yards Allowed, but that's a rather meaningless stat in the grand scheme. In 2014 they were again #7 in Points Allowed and tied for #3 in Turnover Differential (at +12!!!). Astonishingly, in 2013 (their 2-14 season) they were still +5 in Turnover Differential. That was the season that Matt Schaub threw four pick-sixes through the first four games in a row.

They have several excellent pieces on defenses besides Watt - Whitney Mercilus was tied at #6 overall for sacks last season with 12, a ridiculously quiet double-digit season (so quiet that this was not brought to my attention until the start of this preseason); Jadeveon Clowney has been excellent against the run despite coming back from a devastating injury that required the dreaded microfracture surgery; Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph have been a consistently good pair of corners; Benardrick McKinney and Kevin Johnson have been promising young additions as well.

The Texans are far and away the best defense in their division. That might seem like faint praise, but they have been the best there for years and will continue to be good, and it's not solely because of Watt. The three-pronged attack from Watt, Mercilus, and Clowney completely overwhelms offensive lines that aren't elite across the board.

[Wraith]

Bradford to the Vikings

Puts the Vikes back in contention. They'll likely make a WC berth now.

[Wraith]

uh....guys....Sam Bradford has a 17 million dollar cap hit in 2017.........

Part of the trade was that the Eagles would pay part of that salary.

Also while the Vikes did waaaaay overpay they are very much in Win Now mode, and they definitely can. Bradford isn't awful (certainly better than Hill) and got a pretty raw deal in Philly - his receivers had the league's highest drop rate yet despite this Bradford set a new franchise record for completion %. He started rough but by season end he was arguably the best part of that offense. That terrible, terrible offense.

Nevertheless I'm skeptical about his prospects with the Vikes. They don't have a great receiver corps and he's going to have less than a week to get used to and learn a new system. Nevertheless that defense is so good the Vikes easily have a floor of 10-6 IMO.

[Wraith]

Broncos were headhunting, literally

[Wraith]

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

And also lots of really hamfisted 9/11-themed pathos designed by a bunch of corporate executives?

[Wraith]

Early game takeaways:

[*] Bucs are legit contenders.
[*] Raiders and Jags played close fucking games and certainly won't be pushovers. Shame on the folks who've been laughing at people hyping them. EDIT: Oh shit the Raiders WON. I knew they could do it!
[*] Titans are still pushovers. Vikings will be just fine this year. The defense

is

elite.
[*] Chiefs might be in serious trouble without Justin Houston for two months. I underrated the Chargers, but I am still skeptical because the past few seasons they have always started strong and sputtered out by mid-season. EDIT: Classic Chargers choke. I stand by my point though.
[*] Wentz looked very promising. Vindication feels good, he was my favorite QB prospect in this draft.
[*] Bengals were shaky, but the Jets aren't pushovers either. Going from comments I was reading, the Bengals OL might be their Achilles Heel
[*] Texans hype train still on schedule. Bears hard to gauge at the moment.
[*] Ravens are back to normal. I still think the Bills have been overhyped.

[Wraith]

Late game takeaways:

[*] Probably overrated the Giants and underrated the Boys. I expected the Giants D to do better and thought Prescott was largely preseason hype. Cowboys won't be the bottom-feeders I expected without Romo, and that division is totally up in the air.
[*] Seahawks keep getting away with it and Dolphins surprised with keeping it close. I didn't see any of this game however so I'm not sure what to take away from it. Seahawks might be in trouble though.
[*] Colts defense could be historically awful. That is absolutely embarrassing. Colts GM badly needs to be fired, because that defense has been god-awful for years and several drafts have not changed that. Lions aren't pushovers as expected but I'm still skeptical of them. Difficult to get a proper read on them until they play teams that aren't as bad defensively.

[Wraith]

Primetime takeaways:

[*] Wow am I eating crow on the Pats missing the playoffs due to suspension and injury. This is bullshit. Belichick is OP as fuck. I'm complaining to the admins about bastard mod bullshit.
[*] Cards defense is old and should feel the heat. I'm losing hype for them as expected, but even I didn't think they'd lose this one.

[Wraith]

Monday game takeaways:

[*] We haven't missed a beat despite injuries and suspensions. First quarter was a scare but after that it was all "lol jk got ya." We're gonna be Super Bowl contenders again if we can stay healthy.
[*] Cousins was pretty abominable tonight. Redskins defense collapsed against us, if they can't hold against a Super Bowl-level offense they are probably not going to repeat as division winners. I was of the opinion they got super lucky last year and this only confirms my bias against them.
[*] I work early morning so I'm not staying up for a 10PM game between dumpster fire teams lol

[Wraith]

Over/Under Jeff Fisher fired mid-season?

[Wraith]

Yeah, people forget how good Nick Foles was before he went to the Rams. QB was far from being their only issue.

Foles was only ever a one-year wonder.

[Wraith]

Agh, almost forgot.

Thursday Night takeaways

[*] Bills defense not as meh as expected
[*] Taylor honestly looked like the better quarterback. Jets were more consistent and boring but Taylor made bigger plays at bigger moments.
[*] Marshall near-ACL tear was scary as fuck. But Enunwa is filling the gap.
[*] Watkins is overrated

[Wraith]

Early game takeaways

[*] That Bengals-Steelers game had some of the most abominable officiating I've ever seen. We were the better team, but the Bengals got robbed badly on a

lot

of calls. Personally feel like the rain ruined an excellent game.
[*] Giants should be better than this offensively but aren't. Very concerning.
[*] Traditional Ravens near-implosion/implosion vs the Browns. I'm not too concerned about them. But the Browns are like 1-15 dead if McCown is out.
[*] Massive upset by the Titans. Didn't see or follow that game so I have no idea what happened.
[*] 49ers are not the dumpster fire I thought they were
[*] Texans are seriously legit. If Garropolo isn't there next week the Pats are screwed and Texans are easily AFCS winners
[*] Redskins are in serious trouble.

[Wraith]

Whoops forgot to do this

Late Game Takeaways

[*] Rumors of Arizona's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
[*] The Seahawks are in

serious

trouble. There's no way they make it back to the playoffs IMO with such stiff competition for the WC in the NFC
[*] The Colts are just not good. I can't see any way Grigson and Pagano survive this season if they keep playing like they have been.
[*] Raiders defense is baaaaaad. Offense still seems good though. I can't really get a good judgment on the Falcons this early, I've consistently overrated them in the past and that's taught me that they're wildly inconsistent.
[*] Like I've been saying for weeks, the Vikings are for real. Their defense is elite. I've been hearing people talk about there being something wrong with Aaron Rodgers all morning, mentioning his leg and his confidence.

[Wraith]

Let's not make the same mistake with the Seahawks you literally just commented on with the Cardinals. Their defence is still legit - they've conceded 19 points in two games - and have has Rawls and Wilson hobbled by injuries the last couple of weeks. Don't get me wrong, there are reasons to be concerned about the Seahawks, but "serious trouble" is going too far. Against the Rams, you could see how much Wilson's ankle was hurting them, there were several sacks or near sacks that a healthy Wilson could have avoided and bought time to make a play with his mobility.

The thing is with the Cards, while there were some concerns about Palmer and their defense, they still performed

okay

against a strong contender and lost the game off a bad snap. The Seahawks have now had two terrible performances in a row against weak opponents. My concerns are less about the defense and much more about their O-Line, which as expected has opened the season disastrously. They still have to play the Cards twice, the Jets, the Pats, the Pack, and the Panthers. Even some of their mid-level match-ups - such as against the Bucs, Falcons, even the Eagles - look like tough games for that offense.

[Wraith]

I only saw the first half last night, but damn Wentz is the real deal.

The Steelers-Eagles game next week is going to be a tough one.

[Wraith]

I panic about the Patriots QB situation, but thank God the Browns exist to put such thoughts in perspective - assuming Cody Kessler starts with McCown injured, they'll be starting their 26th QB since returning in 1999. When Brissett starts Thursday, he'll become the 5th Patriots starter in the same timeframe. The Browns are truly the heroes the rest of the NFL needs, but the city of Cleveland does not deserve.

Additional points: It's the first time post-merger when a team not playing replacement players during a strike started five different QBs in five games. (Manziel, Davis, Griffin, McCown, Kessler). The Packers have had five starting QBs since week 4 of 1992. The Browns have had 32, and didn't even exist for three years of that time. Fun fact: Seneca Wallace is on both those lists.

at least we drafted kessler at 93 and not 22

who actually thought manziel was actually a good idea. everyone avoided him like the plague

at least we have 8 picks in the first 4 rounds next year

There's been a hilarious rumor since that draft day that Haslam was convinced to draft Johnny Football because a homeless dude he talked to on the street thought it was a good idea. EDIT: Not a rumor rofl

[Wraith]

Cutler could be out for the season. RIP Bears season. They've gotta be drafting a rookie QB in the first this year.

[Wraith]

That was some of the most abominable offensive play-calling I've ever seen. I know Osweiler was off his game and Hopkins was mostly double-teamed, but dear god, you have a receiver who's one degree removed from Antonio Brown-level and 90% of your plays are runs, checkdowns, and flat route passes? fucking wut

That said, unless the Colts or Jags show some kind of drastic improvement in the coming weeks, I still see the Texans rebounding from this and taking the division.

[Wraith]

Ugh, finally shaken off the depression from that crushing loss on Sunday. The debate last night helped.

This was me IRL watching the game Sunday.

[Wraith]

Watt could be out for season

RIP Texans hopes and dreams

[Wraith]

After this showing I can't possibly believe Pagano and Grigson will survive the season. Colts OL is an abomination.

[Wraith]

This is glorious

[Wraith]

So I'm bored right now and feel like sparking some football discussion somewhere. We're almost through week 5 so I guess I'll talk about the concrete impressions I'm starting to form for each team.

AFC North

PIT:

We alone are kings in the North now, and damn it feels good. This is the most confident I've felt about the team in a long time - in 2014 and 2015, every week was an exercise of cardiac arrest as I couldn't predict whether or not we'd drop the ball against any given opponent. That feeling's still there this year to some extent - this whole stretch from Philly to next week in Miami has felt like a bunch of trap games - but going into every game I've got a very high confidence level that we'll win and have only been proven wrong once so far. Probably the only game I'm already writing off as a loss in advance is the one against the Pats two weeks from now. Even then, in our own house a loss isn't out of the question. Offense is still looking terrifying despite several injuries already. Defense has been more shaky, but it's been working. Us, the Broncos, and the Pats are obviously the teams to beat in the AFC this year, and with the Bengals apparently imploding we should be easy favorites to win the division and likely even a playoff bye.

BAL:

I'm pretty surprised the Ravens botched their game yesterday against the Skins. Firing Trestman will likely improve their offense immediately. They have a lot of potential there in the receivers and should go off in the coming weeks. Trestman has an awfully strange pattern of putting out a good performance offensively in his first year with a team and then that offense suffering heavily from a sophomore slump, similar to Kyle Shanahan (ironically enough for this year). With the Bengals imploding at the moment, the Ravens are my easy favorite for a Wild Card berth.

CIN:

I don't really know what's happening to this team. I thought last year put to rest the notion that Dalton was a mediocre quarterback, but now I'm starting to have second thoughts. Did he just have one really good year, an outlier? Or is Tyler Eifert's absence from the lineup

that

crippling? All I know is, with a 2-3 record and brutal match-ups vs the Pats, Steelers, Ravens twice, Giants, Eagles, and Texans looming on the horizon, Cincy's chances to return to the playoffs look pretty bleak. If they miss the playoffs this year, is that curtains for Marvin Lewis?

CLE:

Not much to say here. They weren't going to be good this year, but they have had the worst injury luck save for perhaps the Chargers.

AFC East

NE:

Fucking Pats. Fucking Belichick. Fucking Brady. I was hoping this year would be one to shake up the AFC and this division in particular, but it doesn't look like it.

BUF:

After an awful start, the Bills are starting to look surprisingly solid. They're leaning heavily on McCoy now and it's paying off. If he gets injured, though, they're screwed. They could yet again be on the playoff bubble this year, unfortunately, if other teams keep on their current trajectories.

NYJ:

The poor Jets show that you can't rely on Fitzpatrick week-to-week or season-to-season to keep your team competitive. But Fitz isn't the sole source of problems for this team. Revis's age catching up to him has left their secondary a glaring weakness, as our game against them yesterday showed. They're currently on track for a high draft pick. Todd Bowles made some seriously questionable decisions yesterday, but I think a lot of Jets fans (on the internet at least) are being awfully reactionary by calling for his head so soon.

MIA:

I'm honestly shocked that the Dolphins are this much of a dumpster fire. Tons and tons of people are already circlejerking about how "Tannehill is not a franchise QB" and they think the Dolphins should move on from in. But Tannehill isn't the problem. The Dolphins have consistently failed, for

years

to provide Tannehill with a competent offensive line. I still think Adam Gase is a good coach, but it'll be more clear after this season and another one whether or not he's best as a coordinator. But IMO this team needs time and a couple of drafts to try and get that O-Line and defense in competent shape.

AFC South

HOU:

I'm really disappointed in the Texans. They're still likely to win the division, but they're apparently going to limp to that finish line rather than stride confidently. They've shit the bed when they've played a real contender this year. They should be performing better in the games they've won. And frankly, as much as I think people have been overly harsh on Brock Osweiler over the course of the past year, I do feel a lot of the blame for this must fall on his shoulders. He hasn't performed as advertised by his price tag. Is it just early season jitters? Or was he never any good? I'm convinced that he's better than he's been performing and just needs more time and experience, but only time will tell for that.

IND:

The Colts are in extremely bad shape right now. In their only two wins, they

barely

pulled them out, and they were against a pair of cellar dweller teams. Luck seriously looks like the only good part of this team at all. Even if they manage to limp to an 8-8 record, I can't possibly see Pagano or Grigson surviving the season. The Colts badly need a more competent GM and a couple good drafts to put their defense back at the average level.

TEN:

I don't really know much to say about this team. Mariota has not looked great stat-wise for most of these early games, but he bounced back this week against the Dolphins. If the Texans continue to struggle offensively, the Titans here could actually sneak into a division win. They have a defense whose competence constantly flies under the radar. I feel this team is mostly held back offensively, they seem to live and die by how Mariota performs, and have leaned a lot of Murray so far as a result.

JAX:

I'm really disappointed in the Jags. Their defense has shown some improvement this year, but improving from "more porous than Swiss cheese" to "sometimes forces 3 & Outs" isn't much of an improvement. Their offense that showed explosiveness last year has been much less impressive than expected. I've felt the Jags have done the right thing by giving Gus Bradley so much time to get the house in order, but at this point they're still so consistently underperforming that it begs the question of if bad coaching is what's holding them back.

AFC West

OAK:

I'm glad to see my prediction of the Raiders actually being good this year is coming to fruition. Derek Carr looks absolutely fantastic and has been carrying this team on his back every week. The thing is, though, the Raiders right now are a very precarious house of cards. They've started strong, but their defense has not been good. There's an insane stat floating around - they're 4-1, but have allowed 2,200 yards and 130 points so far, the only team to do so in 40 years. That's fucking nuts. That's half a season's worth of yards and points allowed in 5 games. With the Broncos looming, I don't expect them to win the division anymore, but I still hold out hope for them to make the Wild Card. But unless the defense gets its act together, I think a midseason collapse that might drop them out of contention is inevitable.

DEN:

I'm honestly pissed that the Broncos are doing so well. I'm tired of us missing a playoff bye because the Pats and Broncos get them every year. And thank god the Vikings defense has stepped up because the "DAE dat Broncos D?" circlejerk has become completely unbearable. But yeah, if Siemian continues to provide very solid QB play the Broncos are a lock for winning the division, and potentially a playoff bye as well at the expense of the more volatile Steelers. Their remaining schedule isn't particularly scary, with only the Pats and their division rivals looking like threats. I personally favor the Broncos against all their division rivals, but the way divisional games tend to go you can't really predict them. But I think the loss to the Falcons this week (which I totally called, to toot my own horn) demonstrates that they aren't defensively infallible. While it was largely their offensive struggles that held them back because of Siemian's absence, I think the Falcons being able to hang so many points on their vaunted defense proves that a good enough offense can still overcome their stifling D. Exhibit B is last year's game against the Steelers.

KC:

The Chiefs should rebound after their bye, they're still a solid team. Definitely still Wild Card contenders, but with stiff competition in the AFC in the form of the Raiders and Bills, they might actually find themselves on the bubble this year.

SD:

The Chargers have just had the most atrocious luck. I called their botched FG attempt at the end of yesterday's game (though I thought it would be a shanked kick, not a botched hold) and couldn't stop laughing for a good five minutes straight. They're not pushovers, that's for sure. But they're certainly not going to be contending this year. Bosa at least looked

really

good in his first start, which IMO doubles down on demonstrating how stupid and atrocious their penny-pinching FO is.

This took a lot longer than I expected. I'll do the NFC later.

[Wraith]

NFC North

MIN:

I'm riding the Vikings train really hard right now. They're easily my favorites for NFC Champ this season. I think Bradford's performance here is truly a statement - he's a good QB and so many people have disparaged him, and these past few weeks have really proven he's just been held back a lot by his surroundings. With the Rams, it's pretty obvious how badly mismanaged that team has been during his tenure. With the Eagles, Chip Kelly's offensive scheme is obviously not going to work at the pro level. And now in Minnesota, he's surrounded by an excellent coaching staff and a flawlessly-constructed team, and has a lot of chemistry going with some normally average receivers. It's always a sign of a good QB and coach when they are elevating the play of average talent to higher levels.

GB:

The Packers are still really shaky. Rodgers is still a little off his game compared to what we're used to. Then again, the Giants aren't pushovers, so maybe it's an overreaction. But I think they're going to have pretty stiff competition for a Wild Card berth this year. Them missing isn't out of the question - I've seen a lot of pessimistic Packers fans already. That said, their defense seems greatly improved over that of the past couple years. Right now it seems like it's the offense holding them back, strangely enough.

DET:

This team can't catch a break. It sucks, because they're a better team than the record indicates. But the Lions are kind of hovering in the "not pushovers, but not contenders" purgatory that's plagued teams like the Eagles, Redskins, Chargers, and Bills over the past couple of years. That's not a fun place to be consistently. The Lions just, in general, are not a consistent team, and as a result aren't really in the running for the playoffs this year yet again IMO.

CHI:

I feel bad for the Bears. I thought the team had a sneaky amount of promise this year, but apparently not. IIRC the defense has improved compared to last year, but like the Jags, improving but "porous as Swiss cheese" to "sometimes forces 3 & Outs" isn't much of one. While I think they're right to move on from Cutler at this point, Hoyer isn't the answer. I'm already seeing Bears fans get suckered into thinking he's a serviceable starter. Hoyer has done this every year for the past three or four seasons - he'll put up solid numbers to start with, slowly decline to slightly below-average as the season progresses, and shit the bed when it counts the most. He's nothing more than a career backup who will succeed as a stop-gap, not long-term. IMO the Bears need to go to the draft for their future franchise man. They're on course for a high pick and there's some intriguing QB prospects on the market this year.

NFC East

DAL:

The Cowboys have been a big surprise so far. I did think Elliot would be good, but he might even be exceeding my expectations. Prescott certainly has. Personally, if I was Jerry Jones I'd keep riding the hot hand even after Romo returns, but he's released a statement in support of Romo as the #1 guy. The Cowboys look for real once again this year, and they're rather fun to watch to boot (I certainly enjoyed seeing them demolish the Bengals). The Eagles might give them stiff competition for the division and the Redskins aren't pushovers, but I think I slightly favor Dallas for the division to barely edge out the Eagles.

PHI:

Despite their humiliation of my Steelers two weeks ago, I actually really like this Eagles team. Wentz was my favorite QB prospect during the draft and he's quickly vindicated my faith in him. I think they've built a pretty stout defense that kind of snuck up on everyone - Chip Kelly's offensive philosophy was

really

holding them back. They're going to give Dallas stiff competition for the division this year, even though I give the Cowboys the slight edge in that one. Doug Pederson as a coach has completely surprised me. I thought it was a bit of a silly hire, but as the season approached I started thinking "y'know, with all the flashy hirings for teams like the Dolphins and 49ers, Pederson has been so low-key and unheralded he might be the biggest surprise of the bunch." He's certainly exceeded my expectations of him, I thought the Eagles were a cellar-dweller team this year.

WAS:

The Redskins clawing back from a mediocre start really show that the NFCE is, in fact, going to be the most fiercely-competitive division this season IMO. Cousins is looking in better form and the defense is stepping up. Still, I feel they're overshadowed by their division rivals - yes, even the Giants. But this race is going to be an interesting and unpredictable one to watch.

NYG:

The Giants started well but have started completely disappointing me. I picked them to win the division, but that looks very unlikely at this point. I still think the Giants are a good team, but it's starting to look as if McAdoo is a better coordinator than HC. The defense is good, but the offense is really, really holding them back. They should really be doing much better - Eli was excelling when McAdoo was just the OC, and their offensive trio of Beckham, Cruz, and Shepard is one of the more dangerous in the league. Yet they've been thoroughly mediocre on offense so far. In their defense, the Giants have faced a pretty daunting schedule so far - of their five opponents, only the Saints are a bad team, and the Saints are nevertheless always dangerous with Brees at the helm. The rest of their schedule is easier, but it's still going to be an extremely difficult uphill battle for them to recover from this early losing streak.

NFC South

ATL:

Is it truly shocking that the Falcons have been really good early on? Right now they look like runaway favorites to win their division, but I remain skeptical - they did this exact same thing last year and completely dropped the ball. Then again, last year the Panthers kept pace with them, while this year their division rivals are falling apart early. While their win over the Broncos this week is really impressive, I predicted it successfully this week because Kyle Shanahan offenses always start hot early and collapse after midseason. It's like clockwork. Super eerie. But I could be wrong this time. Matt Ryan says their successes so far in a big part lend themselves to the personal rapport he's developed with Shanahan, a major 180 from his reported frustrations with the man and his scheme last year. Alex Mack has also been an immediate and extreme improvement to the Falcons O-Line as well, turning what was a terrible unit last year into one of the league's best this year. I'm going to hold my breath before crowning them kings of their division, but I could easily be wrong here.

CAR:

The Panthers early season collapse here has been one of the season's biggest shockers. Their roster didn't suffer much turnover from last year, in fact getting better on paper with the return of Kelvin Benjamin. But the defense has taken a major step back so far this year. Newton hasn't been playing at the same level as last year. Did Newton just have a great year that was an outlier, similar to Dalton on the Bengals? This collapse of theirs is one of the most baffling mysteries of the season so far - the Cardinals' decline was much more predictable due to the age of many key players, but this one is rather inexplicable.

TB:

I still maintain that the Bucs are a major dark horse contender. If they win tonight, it could right the ship and give them momentum for a run at the division or a Wild Card berth. Winston has been looking really good when not playing the Broncos. The defense is underperforming but I don't think they're a bad unit. If the defense does improve, I do feel they can ride Winston to success this season.

NO:

Not much to say here. I thought the Saints would be a dumpster fire defense with a still-dangerous offense going into the season, and they've fulfilled that prediction to a T. They're going to have yet another bad year, and I think Payton's seat is going to get really hot as a result.

NFC West

SEA:

The Seahawks might have returned to form after that shaky start, but I'm skeptical. Their O-Line remains a dumpster fire. But Wilson is still a magician, and the defense remains stout. With the Cardinals falling behind, though, they should be easy favorites to win back the division this year. I don't think they're Super Bowl contenders, however.

ARI:

The Cardinals early-season collapse so far has been surprising but not unexpected. I had a hunch that this would be the last year their title window was open due to Palmer's age, and it appears that window has closed even earlier than expected. Nevertheless, Palmer chokes too much in the playoffs for the Cards to actually have a chance to win the Super Bowl. And it honestly looks like he's on his last legs here. The Cards offense has been seriously lackluster so far. And at this point, I feel the hole has become too deep too deep for them to have a real chance at winning the division over the Seahawks.

LA:

No, I still don't take the Rams seriously. I won't until they fire Jeff Fisher and get a competent coach. That's really all I have to say. They aren't going to be going to the playoffs starting Case Keenum at QB.

SF:

Pretty much as expected, the 49ers are a dumpster fire team. They're finally benching Gabbert in favor of Kaepernick, which I feel should have been the case in the first place. Not that I'm a fan of Kaep's, I've been watching him steadily decline every year since 2012 and figured his future as a starting QB was limited. But as much as it's easy to blame the 49ers failings on their lack of talent at many positions, it's only partly to blame - Chip's offensive system just does not work on the pro level. Traditional clock management that evenly splits time between the offense and defense will always be better. And this is coming from someone who was really excited about Kelly during his time with the Eagles.

[Wraith]

uh no

kaep has lost like 30 pounds, still cant read defenses and doesnt watch film like he needs to.

the 49ers are ass, but gabbert is still a better option for them than kaep. again it doesnt matter cause the 49ers are ass regardless of their qb.

Gabbert was so bad Thursday that I find it hard to believe Kaep could be a worse option. At least, not until I actually see him play for the first time in a year.

[Wraith]

Mike McCoy needs to be out of San Diego by season end. The amount of 4th quarter collapses or near-collapses in just these first six games is just absolutely inexcusable. He somehow even managed to accomplish the astonishing feat of icing his own onside kick recovery.

The Chargers could have been in the playoffs in 2014 and even could have contended this year, but they're badly held back by his terrible coaching.

[Wraith]

Ugh, what a complete shit-show of a game. It reeked of a trap game all week and surprise, surprise, we lost.

-Our defense is so utterly banged up that the center literally could not hold and we allowed a ludicrous amount of rushing yards. Plus it looks like Vince Williams was taken out with a severe injury so we're literally starting a seventh-rounder at ILB. Hopefully

Kendrell Bell

I mean Ryan Shazier can return next week when we get blown out by the Patriots.
-The first moment that spelled death for us this game was obviously Ben getting injured part-way through the second. It completely killed all of our momentum and meant ~1.5 quarters of completely impotent offense (since Ben was totally off his game for the entire third quarter), which just put our defense on the field even more. They were not doing well to begin with but they were just exhausted by the half, likely due to the heat and humidity. It really showed at the ends of both halves, when Timmons puked his guts and we let Ajayi break through for a long rushing TD at the very end.
-Second moment that spelled death for us was in the late second quarter. We drove to the other side of the field by leaning on Bell. He got 8 yards first carry, 7 yards the next, giving us a 3rd & 1. Inexplicably, we go for Landry "I don't know where the fuck I am" Jones to pass on the very next play. Killed the drive, and killed any chance of us going into the locker room at the half with some sort of momentum.

We're probably going to get blown out by the Pats next week like usual. We have a really nasty 3-game streak coming up and we absolutely must win 2 of them to keep this season on comfortable track.

[Wraith]

So I might sink into a suicidal depression in the near future

[Wraith]

Ugh.

On the bright side, Poker is probably right. Ben had the surgery that should give a much quicker timetable for return yesterday (Jesus I pity the shit he's going to go through later in life). And if there was one game on the schedule I'm okay with him missing, it's the Pats game, because we were probably going to lose that one anyways.

On the other hand, Ben always plays like shit when he forces himself back early from injury, and the week after the bye we face the Ravens on the road. So we're probably going to shit the bed there as well and end up 4-4 -_-.

But after this nasty three-game stretch, our schedule isn't too intimidating. 11-5 remains a very viable possibility.

[Wraith]

Steelers were way better than expected yesterday. That plus the Ravens playing terribly against the Jets gave me hope we actually could beat them in their house without Ben.

[Wraith]

So Ben practiced today, so we've got that going for us, which is great.

Ladarius Green also practiced, plus it seems like Bud Dupree and Cam Heyward are aiming for a Week 10 return. While the defense will likely stay abysmal without Heyward, it's a sign that we're on trajectory to get hot late in the season as usual and cruise through the easier half of our schedule. Even if we lose both the @BAL and DAL games, we'll still be 4-5 and have a much easier 7 game stretch to end the season. 11-5 is still within reach, and it helps that the Ravens and Bengals are currently imploding.

I've seen someone else make a great comment about Houston: "Texans are the most predictable team in the NFL. They beat all the teams that they're supposed to beat, and lose to all the teams that they're supposed to lose to. And we saw that again last night." If this trend continues, they're likely due for a 9-7 or 10-6 record. Par for the course with the AFCS now that the Colts have badly regressed. Right now though, the Titans look to just barely have the easiest schedule remaining between the Colts, Texans, and Titans, so they're still a fine dark horse. I think the Colts have too many tough

hombres

teams to play against to mount a season comeback for the division.

I think right now here are my seed predictions:

AFC

1. NE
2. DEN
3. PIT
4. HOU
5. OAK
6. BUF

NFC

1. MIN
2. ATL
3. DAL
4. SEA
5. PHI
6. GB

If we do get hot late like I expect, PIT could easily steal the 2-seed from the Broncos. The 2-4 NFC seeds could vary wildly between those teams. Also, the NFCE is entirely unpredictable. At this point I expect at least 2 NFCE teams to make the playoffs and I'm picking the Eagles over Giants based on their defensive demolition of the Vikings this past week. But they could easily send 3 if the Packers remain inconsistent.

[Wraith]

So the refs quite literally single-handedly cost the Bills 3 points.

When do we hold the fucking league accountable for this shit?

[Wraith]

I think the Vikings are still gonna win the division. I think they have a slightly easier remaining schedule than the Lions:

@DET
DAL
@JAX
IND
@GB
CHI

vs the Lions'

MIN
@NO
CHI
@NYG
@DAL
GB

That last stretch looks pretty crazy for the Lions.

[Wraith]

Goddamn the AFCN is going to be nasty coming up to the end. I still think the Steelers will pull through in the end but it will be a slog for both us and the Ravens.

Steelers remaining schedule:

@IND
NYG
@BUF
@CIN
BAL
CLE

Ravens:

CIN
MIA
@NE
PHI
@PIT
@CIN

That's just nasty for Baltimore. Lots of potential home upsets in there, along with an almost certain loss to the Patriots.

The Steelers are playing waaaaay better at home this year, so honestly the only games in there that look truly troubling are the road games against the Bills and Bengals, especially the former. Heyward is out for the rest of the season so our run defense has taken a huge hit, and that's not something you want to hear when you've got to go up against LeSean McCoy.

[Wraith]

My guess at this point:

AFC

1. NE (12-4)
2. OAK (12-4)
3. PIT (10-6)
4. HOU (10-6)
5. KC (11-5)
6. DEN (11-5)

NFC

1. DAL (13-3)
2. SEA (11-4-1)
3. MIN (11-5)
4. ATL (11-5)
5. NYG (10-6)
6. WAS (9-6-1)

That last NFC wild card is up in the air for me though. Detroit could edge out the Skins or Giants easily.

[Wraith]

Man I like TB but they're such a hit-or-miss team. They still have to play the Saints twice plus the Cowboys(!) and I don't think they have the consistency to make it.

No longer think the Redskins are going to make it. They can't afford to lose more than one more game and with the Cards and two division rivals coming up I think it's just too difficult.

The Broncos do have a nasty trio of games at the end of their schedule but playoffs are still do-able for them because the Ravens and Dolphins have such a nasty remaining schedule.

The MIA @ BAL game is going to decide a lot. Whoever wins, I think their playoff chances are doomed. Ravens can't afford a single mistake at this point and the Dolphins play three division games in a row to end the season.

[Wraith]

For NE this feels a lot like last year. Start really strong, mid-late season start slumping as injuries take their toll and other teams start hitting a groove, wins come by smaller and smaller margins, eventually lose in the playoffs to a strong defense because the center cannot hold. That's what I'm thinking. Really! Those games against Pittsburgh (who didn't have Ben), Seattle, and the Jets are bad omens for the Pats, and they've looked eminently beatable of late.

AFC playoffs can be really interesting if that's the case.

* NE is slumping
* DEN is slumping (especially since it appears Siemian is out ROS)
* OAK is a house of cards defensively
* HOU has an awful offense (they're like a worse version of the Vikings)

KC could go really far this year. PIT could go far if we make it, though we're almost as much a house of cards as OAK. BAL could go far if they make it and Playoff Flacco rejuvenates their lethargic offense. If Miami continues to surge even they could go far. Even TEN is an longshot dark horse if they can make it.

[Wraith]

Stan Kroenke has never cared about the quality of his product, just the quantity of merchandise sold. And the sad thing is that he's almost certainly going to win now that he has an LA sports franchise.

The Dolphins got exposed HARD as playoff pretenders today. That was brutal.

[Wraith]

That moment when you're a Steelers fan but played against Le'Veon Bell in the playoffs in the money league this week.

[Wraith]

Yeah Denver's loss to the Titans this week was beyond huge. It might guarantee two teams from the AFCN getting in.

Even if Baltimore loses to New England tonight, the division is still going to come completely down to our Christmas match-up, since if Baltimore wins that one while losing the NE match-up they secure the head-to-head tiebreaker.

[Wraith]

RIP Jeff Fisher. Fired before your time.

[Wraith]

ayy

Steelers gonna win

[Wraith]

Shit is gonna be close as fuuuuuuck for Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Miami.

[Wraith]

Raiders probably just lost Carr

[Wraith]

TFW THE GREATEST CHRISTMAS GIFT OF ALL

[Wraith]

We blew KC the fuck out of the water once already

[Wraith]

It's worse than that for TB. All of this must happen:

TB over CAR
IND over JAX
DAL over PHI
DET over GB
TEN over HOU
SF over SEA

and the real kicker

WAS ties NYG

[Wraith]

So hmm, now that the playoff spots are practically set in stone, I'll take another look at how things might go. And also because some new things have been brought to my attention about Seattle, namely that their pass defense has been absolutely horrendous since Earl Thomas died. For the time being, I'm assuming the Giants and Lions both win this week, meaning GB and DET make the playoffs and WAS narrowly misses out.

AFC

1. NE (14-2)
2. KC (12-4)
3. PIT (11-5)
4. HOU (10-6)
5. OAK (12-4)
6. MIA (10-6)

NFC

1. DAL (14-2)
2. ATL (11-5)
3. SEA (10-5-1)
4. DET (10-6)
5. NYG (11-5)
6. GB (9-7)

Wild Card

PIT > MIA

I think Miami's devastating rout against the Ravens should be enough to prove the Dolphins are playoff pretenders. If you can shut down their run game, the Dolphins implode. The Dolphins ran all over the Steelers in their match-up earlier in the season, but I have a trio of excuses for our loss in that one - firstly, our defense was heavily injured in the middle of the field going into that game, with Cam Heyward and Ryan Shazier (arguably our two best defensive players) out; secondly, the Steelers were still (barely) in control of the game until Ben was injured, at which point the offense totally collapsed and the Dolphins seized the initiative; thirdly, we were on the road. The Steelers have tightened up defensively considerably as we've gotten onto our traditional late season hot streak, especially against the run. If we keep Ajayi contained, the Dolphins shouldn't be able to move the ball very much, especially if Matt Moore is the QB instead of Tannehill. The Steelers are also much stronger at home this year, and this rematch will be in Pittsburgh.

HOU > OAK

Wow...this game might be a spiritual successor to the abominable 2014 match-up between the Lindley-led Cards and the 7-8-1 Panthers. I feel so bad for the Raiders. Nevertheless, I have thought the Raiders were a house of cards for much of the season, and destined to go one-and-done in the divisional round against a good opponent like the Chiefs or Steelers. Their thoroughly mediocre defense has been carried hard by Carr's clutch antics. And now Carr is gone, and the Texans under Savage have looked marginally more capable offensively. The Texans defense, even Watt-less, is also no pushover. McGloin won't cut it, period.

GB > SEA

I think no matter the match-up here - be it GB, DET, or WAS - the Seahawks are going to go down. Their offensive line has been the worst in the league, and without Earl Thomas their defense has been considerably less capable. All three of their potential opponents have very capable pocket-passing QBs, GB most of all - and Rodgers has been on a late-season hot streak as well.

NYG > DET

The Giants are dangerous as hell, make no mistake. All they need is some Playoff!Eli to get themselves to a Super Bowl. Detroit has been extremely inconsistent, especially on defense. I'd probably pick the Giants over GB as well, even though I think that would be much more of a toss-up there.

Divisonal

NE > HOU

This should be a no-brainer. There is no way the Texans offense overcomes the rather alarmingly unheralded Patriots defense.

PIT > KC

We

dismantled

the Chiefs in our early-season match-up. While our offense has been less capable during our late-season streak, our defense has tightened up considerably, as said. I don't think Reid, Smith, and the Chiefs offense can keep up with a consistent-if-not-as-spectacular Steelers offense with a capable and healthy Steelers defense putting up a fight. The Chiefs defense is certainly potent, but our O-Line has been top 3 in the league this year. I'll bet more on Big Ben's horse than Alex Smith's.

DAL > GB

Unless it's the Giants, Dallas should handily defeat whatever opponent shows up here. I think Detroit has a decent chance of an upset, but the Cowboys handled them pretty handily just a week ago as well. But against the Packers, I just don't think the Packers defense can hold back the versatile and explosive Dallas offense.

NYG > ATL

This one is pure toss-up, IMO. It all depends on if Playoff!Eli has shown up at this point. The Giants defense is fantastic, and its secondary is especially dangerous to the pass-heavy Atlanta offense - Landon Collins has had an excellent season, in particular. If Playoff!Eli shows up, I think the Giants win in a narrow but exciting battle; if he remains as inconsistent as during the regular season, I give the slight edge to the Falcons instead. But when it comes to the playoffs, I tend to favor the better defense in general, especially if they have a capable QB at the helm, and that only flips when an elite QB with a capable defense (like the Steelers) is the other choice.

Championship

PIT > NE

This is me being a pure homer. The Pats have had our number throughout the Brady-Belichick era. The Steelers have only ever made the Super Bowl when the Pats were knocked off by another team. But this year, I swear this is it! But really, if our defense keeps playing at the level it has been and the Pats play like they against us during the regular season, we really do have a legitimate shot to win this one. Is it unlikely...yeah. But unlikely things can happen in the NFL. The big wild card here, IMO, is Le'Veon Bell. If the Pats run defense fails to contain him, or we simply grind them into exhaustion, the momentum can shift heavily to our side. But either way, this match-up would be a thriller IMO.

NYG > DAL

I think a lot of people are expecting a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl this year. I say fuck that. I say both the favorites get upset somewhere along the way. And the Giants have proven themselves Dallas kryptonite. I'm simply convinced that we're going to see another astonishing Eli Manning playoff run. I think Dallas is cocky now and will stay cocky going through the playoffs, and it will bite them in the ass. And of course, defense wins championships...and the Giants have one of the best right now.

And that's my prediction for the moment. A Rooney-Mara Super Bowl. And that's probably going to stay my ultimate prediction no matter how Week 17 turns out.

Also I feel like adding that this was one of the funniest things I've seen all season.

[Wraith]

PIT > KC

We

dismantled

the Chiefs in our early-season match-up. While our offense has been less capable during our late-season streak, our defense has tightened up considerably, as said. I don't think Reid, Smith, and the Chiefs offense can keep up with a consistent-if-not-as-spectacular Steelers offense with a capable and healthy Steelers defense putting up a fight. The Chiefs defense is certainly potent, but our O-Line has been top 3 in the league this year. I'll bet more on Big Ben's horse than Alex Smith's.

Chiefs have a better record against a marginally tougher schedule than the Steelers. You're putting way too much stock in a single game, early in the season, at Heinz Field instead of Arrowhead. Lest you forget, a week earlier, the Steelers were destroyed by the Eagles, are you saying they're going to the Superbowl?

I admit that this being a road game in this scenario is what makes me believe it won't be a pure stomp like in the regular season. But I think there are more factors at play as mentioned - our O-Line's excellence is a factor that cannot be understated.

[Wraith]

rofl our second string is better than the Browns

Also I regret picking the Texans over the Raiders they lost to Matt fucking Cassel

[Wraith]

> Already clinched playoff berth
> Eliminate division rival anyway

Giants are pure evil lol

[Wraith]

ayy so my final record for predictions this season was 161-94

That's a .631 average ayy-oh

[Wraith]

I'm sad the Giants lost. But this does mean the Packers have stolen their energy and are the best candidate to knock off the Cowboys.

Makes me think a lot less of Odell Beckham. Dude talks mad shit all the time and is a total diva, then when his team finally gets a chance back in the playoffs he quite literally drops the ball.

I think the death knell for the Giants is that they didn't have a running game. In 2007 and 2011 they had a baller-ass running game. So this year they had to rely on Eli and the WRs. Eli played okay, his WRs didn't deliver at all.

Steelers going all the way baby! Offense is back to where it was at the start of the season and then some!

[Wraith]

McDermott to the Bills

Vance Joseph to the Broncos

[Wraith]

Sean McVay to the Rams

[Wraith]

4/4!

WE'RE GOING TO THE FUCKING CHAMPIONSHIP FUCK YOU ALL

[Wraith]

Our defense has been coming into its own lately dude

I know beating the Pats in Foxborough will be a longshot but I BELIEVE

[Wraith]

Our defense has been coming into its own lately dude

I know beating the Pats in Foxborough will be a longshot but I BELIEVE

The more I think about it the more likely a win for us seems. Our offense is incredibly well-balanced - if they can't stop Bell, the Pats are doomed; if they can, we can probably still make plays in the air.

The question is in the defense. Brady has traditionally had field days against our scheme. But it's Butler now, not LeBeau, and a secondary in particular that has come into its own. If we can keep Brady under control, we win; if not, we lose. It's that simple. And I think the key to that will be holding back on blitzing.

[Wraith]

It will come down to how much pressure Pitt can get on Brady

Pressure without blitzing IMO. Whenever we blitz it will almost certainly open up a quick pass to one of Brady's options.

[Wraith]

Blown out by the Pats in the postseason. As is tradition.

[Wraith]

#asexpected

I mean you have no room to talk. You didn't even think we'd make the playoffs.

[Wraith]

When the Falcons decided to throw it on 2nd & 10 on the Pats 25 with 4 minutes remaining and then got sacked, I knew it was over.

I was in denial about it for the rest of the game, but subconsciously, I knew that was it. I sat down and stopped being enthusiastic over any big play.

I was cynical about things to my huge Pats fan roommate but I was so skeptical about Brady being unable to pull off a comeback I didn't even react to the big TD, tying 2-pointer, and winning drive. I even called that it would be over for whichever team won the OT toss. And I wasn't even mad that the NFL's bullshit overtime rules robbed yet another great team of a chance to win it all.

Why? Because the Falcons literally had it all in hand and threw it away. They were in chip-shot field goal range and instead of running it for almost no risk they decided to throw it. And Ryan got sacked. And then a penalty threw them to a 3rd & 33 attempt. And at that point subconsciously I knew it was over. They had given it all away.

So I'm not even sympathetic. It's not even on the level of the Cards getting robbed by a miracle drive + catch. It's not even the Seahawks only having a chance because of a 1 in a million catch. It's not a halftime ambush onside kick shifting the momentum. The Falcons had the chance to seal it and decided to be cute. No sympathy for that.

[Wraith]

Really?

It was boring as shit until the 4th quarter.

Falcons just shit on the Patriots until they decided to choke it away. Seriously, Pats played like garbage until the Falcons decided the game was apparently over.

[Wraith]

I don't think so

If the Falcons hadn't choked it all away in the 4th quarter, this was easily going to be in the same rank as Super Bowl XLV. Packers shat on the Steelers throughout the majority of the game, then the Steelers mounted a comeback, then they got robbed by a late-game fumble and fuck-up.

If the Falcons had run the ball instead of passed it with 4 minutes remaining, LI would've been classified on that level. It wasn't a good game, it was a good comeback. There's a difference.