Brexit

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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:44 am

Post by Papa Zito »

Ok suddenly there's all this sabre rattling about Gibraltar??
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:58 am

Post by mykonian »

"suddenly"

That it had settled didn't mean the pressures around it disappeared. You can wait another 100 years and Spain still will want it to become Spanish. It's very convenient if you want to show you are going to play hardball.

shrug.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:59 am

Post by Papa Zito »

Suddenly it's on my chosen American news source!
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:09 am

Post by zoraster »

Well, I mean a former Tory leader DID use the falklands in reference to Gibraltar, so kind of sudden, but mostly inconsequential as he's not in a position of power.

Gibraltar is in a pretty crummy place though. They voted 96% to stay in the EU, but they've also voted in similarly high numbers in the past to remain entirely British.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:31 am

Post by mykonian »

well, there's something to be said for being allowed to set your own taxes and stuff, not being Spanish and being British for the sake of it.

Surely you could see the benefits of freedom ;)
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:07 am

Post by zoraster »

What? Reread what I just said.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:11 am

Post by mykonian »

Crummy has a negative tone to me. If you intended that differently, feel free to clarify.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:21 am

Post by zoraster »

I do mean it negative. Gibraltar is in a bad place: they want to be British because they are historically british, enjoy many of the benefits of being in a (generally) stronger economy, like having the pound, etc. But Spain is obviously hugely important to Gibraltar, and access to freedom of movement and trade is incredibly important.

So whereas before they were able to have both without much consequence, now they're basically at the mercy of UK and EU negotiators taking notice of their need to retain both. And for the first time in a long time Spain probably has the stronger hand now. They don't need Gibraltar to thrive, so could easily reject any proposed trade or movement policy they want without some form of assertion of Spanish power over Gibraltar -- which Gibraltar citizens have obviously avoided in the past by heavy margins.

I don't know that Spain WILL do that, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility, and Spain has made some noises that it's interested in using this as leverage.

So yeah. I think Gibraltar is in a negative, crummy place right now.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:26 am

Post by mykonian »

Yeah, I see this as EU/Spain putting it on the agenda as a point the UK has to fight for, in stead of assuming it'll work out down the road. The UK still has the same goals with Gibraltar, which have nothing to do with the economics of it, never have. To a point it got the benefit of being in the Eurozone yet not really being part of it. Now if your assumption is that Gibraltar, with the UK, would come behind import taxes etc, then sure, theyd be stuck in a bad place. Then again, such a hard brexit leaves all parties suffering. Further, Spain really has little to win by cutting off gibraltar from it's lifeline. It's practically part of the Spanish economy. If this wasn't talked about, beyond the formality of reorganising how the border was going to work (and it is already a special case), really from the point of gibraltar little would change. I don't see how anything could change all that dramatically.

See the first post in respect to this. It's a very convenient topic from the EU to put pressure on the UK. From the point of the UK, since forever, it's been a military base and otherwise they can sort themselves out. And sure Spain would very much like it to be part of their nation, though that's not going to happen in forever. In the end what mostly matters for gibraltar is how hard the brexit will be, the particular point of them is but a tiny topic on that agreement. But making it a topic now is a way to make the negotiations more difficult for the other side.

To me this the game of negotiations being played, nothing to really get worked up about.
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:48 am

Post by zoraster »

You're having some different conversation than I am. Go ahead and have it I guess. Mine felt more interesting, but we're talking about what myko wants to.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:51 am

Post by zoraster »

More realistically, I don't have any idea why you think both (a) Gibraltar isn't about the economy for UK, never has and (b) "it's practically the spanish economy"

It's a weird duality where you're assuming Spain cares exclusively about the economy and the UK doesn't at all.

But let's put that to rest: neither is really about the economy as it relates to Gibraltar. Which is why GIBRALTARIANS are in a bad place. Because the fight is over sovereignty, not the economy, but for those living in gibraltar, it's at least partially about the economy.

Before, Gibraltar had the best of both worlds. They could trade freely, they could move from one to the other freely, but they were part of the UK which they like. Now they essentially have to choose which is more important to them OR some sort of trade agreement that takes Gibraltar into account has to be made. But ask yourself why SPAIN would want to just give Gibraltarians free trade and travel when the EU as a whole doesn't even want to give that to the UK at a whole, which is a far more significant trade partner than just Gibraltar.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:01 am

Post by zoraster »

Country
GDP
United Kingdom2,861 Billion
Spain1,252 Billion
Gibraltar2 Billion


Economically speaking, Gibraltar is a rounding error to both Spain and the UK.

The position Gibraltar is in is somewhat similar to what Northern Ireland is placed in except Northern Ireland is 15% the size of the Republic of Ireland whereas Gibraltar is 0.15% of Spain.
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by mykonian »

In post 385, zoraster wrote:It's a weird duality where you're assuming Spain cares exclusively about the economy and the UK doesn't at all.
The UK historically, hasn't. It's let the reigns loose for idk how long. It's far away and as long as it's there they are happy.

When it comes to the simple thing as shopping, buying a car, etc, they don't do that in England. That's done in Spain, given they can walk there. To a point the EU was annoyed that it is a tax haven of sorts, and the free market is apparently less free for gibraltar (as far as I can tell customs are collected), but otoh, given it's near them, Spain is the least served by a ruination of the enclave. You showed the numbers: that's a shitload of money passing through a couple of square miles. The profit made, now that has to be spent somewhere.

We aren't having a different discussion, you assume the situation as it is isn't actually beneficial to multiple sides. Sovereignity, the line over which this is fought, is really not going to change. You assume the economic situation has to change. I think at the end of the road, Spain is fairly happy to concede the status quo in gibraltar for w/e advantage they can get in the negotiations, given they shouldn't really mind it, it should have a sizable positive effect on the nearby area economically. The UK however assuming it wouldn't have to be talked about, now that was letting it go a bit too easily. By putting it up as a point of discussion, now May&co have to spend energy in representing their citizens, in that faraway place.

So I don't think the duality is that weird at all, it's based in geography. I could be proven wrong, but I'd be surprised if the situation about gibraltar is significantly changed 2 years from now.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:48 pm

Post by zoraster »

I KNOW THAT MYKO
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:48 pm

Post by zoraster »

like what the heck do you think I'm arguing?

I'm saying that the discussion over Gibraltar FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SPAIN AND THE UK isn't about the economy.

From the perspective of GIBRALTARIANS (i.e. the people who are citizens of gibraltar, live in gibraltar, etc.) it's very much important.

It's like you have this lecture you want to give and no matter what I'm saying you're going to go off the other way to give it.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:52 pm

Post by mykonian »

I'm trying to explain that nobody actually wants the situation to change. You somehow expect one to happen, on the basis that Spain wouldn't care about the economic situation in gibraltar.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:56 pm

Post by zoraster »

And sure. I don't know what will happen regarding Gibraltar. Maybe nothing! But that doesn't mean they're not in a tough spot right now. Like I'm sure they'll be reassured that you don't think anything's going to happen, but they're a pawn in someone else's game the moment. That's not a position you'd like to be in, particularly when the status quo is great for you.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:57 pm

Post by zoraster »

In post 390, mykonian wrote:I'm trying to explain that nobody actually wants the situation to change. You somehow expect one to happen, on the basis that Spain wouldn't care about the economic situation in gibraltar.
Spain
100% wants the situation to change. Their interest in Gibraltar isn't theoretical and isn't new. I don't doubt they'd be willing to put a hold on their claim for longer if given something suitably juicy, but they aren't playing about this either.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:51 pm

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permanently retired

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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:26 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

In post 375, Papa Zito wrote:Ok suddenly there's all this sabre rattling about Gibraltar??
I found this out from you... I don't read news much... man I need to get my shit together.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:07 am

Post by zoraster »

It's hilarious that the UK thinks it has any chance of getting EU agencies to be based on the UK: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/u ... 9?mode=amp

I'm sure the UK doesn't care and wants to use it as leverage, but it's such a transparently dumb idea.
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:23 am

Post by shaft.ed »

I found the story of EU governments grabbing up all the UK rail before Brexit finalizes somewhat hilarious
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:22 am

Post by ConManMick »

Cheers for that Shaft.ed, that was good for a laugh
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:39 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 389, zoraster wrote: It's like you have this lecture you want to give and no matter what I'm saying you're going to go off the other way to give it.
This describes like 60% of my interactions with mykonian.
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