Brexit

This forum is for discussion about anything else.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #350 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:00 pm

Post by Porochaz »

I wasn't trying to make the argument of whether it is good or not, I was trying to show reasoning behind my/peoples votes. Facts and figures weren't well researched, which was what point 1 was trying to say and a little digging would have proved that. The freedom aspect was definitely a huge factor in the voting. I would say mainly from the yes voters. I'm not entirely sure that many no voters voted no because they wanted independence and came to the conclusion that it wasn't worth it at this point in time, especially considering it was being touted as a "once in a generation" thing. I do know of people who voted yes despite the risks, Im not entirely sure I know of anyone who wanted to vote yes but was dissuaded because of them.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
ConManMick
ConManMick
Dear Derry
User avatar
User avatar
ConManMick
Dear Derry
Dear Derry
Posts: 1619
Joined: January 11, 2015
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #351 (ISO) » Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:43 pm

Post by ConManMick »

In post 341, Porochaz wrote: As ms's Scottish representative (yeah, ConManMike is Irish, screw you everyone who says otherwise)
I endorse this fully authentic Scotsman's post
"As everyone knows there is a special guardian angel for drunkards and lovers"
- Alexandre Dumas
TÁL
User avatar
Randomnamechange
Randomnamechange
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Randomnamechange
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6075
Joined: February 8, 2014

Post Post #352 (ISO) » Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:50 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 330, zoraster wrote:
In post 328, Davsto wrote:
In post 327, zoraster wrote:I don't know why it doesn't support the idea he would result in low Labour votes if he were to remain in power.
How about the fact that the categories are divided by "voting intention", meaning that even those Labour ones who say that May would make a better leader are still planning on voting Labour anyway (because most people vote for a
party
that fits with their politics rather than for the rather changeable leader)?
I absolutely believe that's the case. Most people in a party will vote for the party that fits their politics rather than the leader. It's logical and makes sense to do so. But that doesn't win elections. That's a very baseline of support, and in anything approaching a marginal constituency, you're going to suffer if your leader -- the person you're putting forward as the next PM -- is seen even by those in your party as not being up for the job.

Regardless, that isn't responsive to the other chart that shows across every age demographic May is seen as making a better PM. I do not get how that doesn't trouble you deeply if you're Labour.
Labour don't get in right now. Politics have swung to the right and they aren't going to beat the Tory's on that. The alternative is to build a strong base of left-wing voters so when the political scene swings back they are in a good position. Corbyn won't be PM, but neither would any other Labour MP
vonflare (21:40)
you suck randomidget
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #353 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:18 am

Post by zoraster »



Corbyn is going to win. Labour voters have a death wish I guess.

.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #354 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:30 am

Post by Porochaz »

Both options suck.

What the labour party want and what the people (who are willing to register themselves) want are completely different things. Under either leader Labour are unelectable, they need someone who is a compromise between Corbyn and Smith but noones come forward
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #355 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:54 am

Post by zoraster »

There's a lot of time between now and the next general election. If I had to hazard a guess even under Smith it'd be a tough election, but the variance is large. But I'm far more sure that if Corbyn is selected there's no chance at all for the next election. And I don't think the left does themselves any favors in the long term either. It's not like having someone like Corbyn perpetually losing elections is going to lead to the achievement of real goals.
.
User avatar
Porochaz
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
User avatar
User avatar
Porochaz
Oh, Prozac
Oh, Prozac
Posts: 9317
Joined: September 6, 2007

Post Post #356 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:48 am

Post by Porochaz »

Corbyn definitely doesn't have the support of the party, Smith definitely doesn't have the support of the electorate. He's not left enough to appeal to them and further more, he's the one trying to supplant the leader the vocal want. I reckon at this juncture, neither have a chance, and furthermore, won't regardless of how long passes.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #357 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:44 am

Post by zoraster »

well this is worthy of a bump.


It begins.
.
User avatar
Korts
Korts
Luddite
User avatar
User avatar
Korts
Luddite
Luddite
Posts: 5752
Joined: January 1, 2008
Location: HUN BUD

Post Post #358 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:18 am

Post by Korts »

Any news about Scotland?
scumchat never die
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #359 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:19 am

Post by zoraster »

Well as of yesterday the Scottish Parliament voted to demand a new independence referendum.
.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #360 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:21 am

Post by zoraster »

I'm sure the tories will resist giving one, so I guess we get to see how Scotland attempts to press for one. Realistically, you might need a new election that puts SNP in coalition in Westminster to get another vote.
.
User avatar
Drench
Drench
he/him
crucial waukesha voter
User avatar
User avatar
Drench
he/him
crucial waukesha voter
crucial waukesha voter
Posts: 1834
Joined: September 25, 2008
Pronoun: he/him
Location: crucial waukesha county

Post Post #361 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:25 am

Post by Drench »

#scotref is a terrible hashtag, bring on #indyref2

anyway it won't happen before 2019
join your union
User avatar
Drench
Drench
he/him
crucial waukesha voter
User avatar
User avatar
Drench
he/him
crucial waukesha voter
crucial waukesha voter
Posts: 1834
Joined: September 25, 2008
Pronoun: he/him
Location: crucial waukesha county

Post Post #362 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:25 am

Post by Drench »

also i can't wait (in a bad way) for northern ireland's border to go absolutely tits up here
join your union
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #363 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:45 am

Post by zoraster »

to be fair, there's a lot more incentive for ireland to agree to some sort of bilateral treaty than most.
.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #364 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:56 am

Post by zoraster »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 56506.html

Merkel stepping in to say that separation has to come first and can't run parallel to trade.
.
User avatar
Davsto
Davsto
He/Him
Farce of Habit
User avatar
User avatar
Davsto
He/Him
Farce of Habit
Farce of Habit
Posts: 5279
Joined: June 29, 2015
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #365 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:04 am

Post by Davsto »

User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #366 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:11 am

Post by zoraster »

Market seems mixed on this. Looks like it was assumed Brexit was happening and Merkel's response is seen as -- at the very least -- just the expected response.

FTSE 100 and 250 up for the day, British Pound down vs. the USD about 1.5% from its high on Monday (though down 28% from its high in 2015, 38% from the high in 2014, and 69% from 2007)
.
User avatar
Ranmaru
Ranmaru
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Ranmaru
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7088
Joined: March 7, 2011

Post Post #367 (ISO) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:01 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

How are things now? Just curious.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #368 (ISO) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:07 am

Post by zoraster »

mostly the same as before, honestly. 1.25 per dollar, FTSE 100 and 250 roughly the same.

Figure most of the negative effects predicted are currently baked into the price by investors.
.
User avatar
theplague42
theplague42
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
theplague42
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1505
Joined: October 31, 2010
Location: Denver, CO

Post Post #369 (ISO) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:28 am

Post by theplague42 »

Have many people talked about the effect this will have on the EU? How much of the EU's funding comes from the UK?
Part of the problem.
User avatar
zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
User avatar
User avatar
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
Disorganized Crime
Posts: 21680
Joined: June 10, 2008
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #370 (ISO) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:38 am

Post by zoraster »

That's kind of complicated. https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... n#spending

I think a bigger question isn't the actual tax and spend of it, it's the effect of trade restrictions and immigration restrictions. The UK is the second largest economy in the EU (though France isn't too far behind). It serves as a large market for exports from EU countries.
.
User avatar
Fluminator
Fluminator
He/Him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Fluminator
He/Him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1658
Joined: May 15, 2014
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: Growing Cabbages

Post Post #371 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:31 am

Post by Fluminator »

Good for Britain. It did what it had to. Hopefully this makes canzuk more likely to happen.
User avatar
mykonian
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
User avatar
User avatar
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Posts: 11963
Joined: August 27, 2008

Post Post #372 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:33 am

Post by mykonian »

Yeah Zor has the gist of it, I think. The EU from a rich country point of view goes well beyond how much money is thrown towards Brussels. It might seem "unfair" that Poland gets x amount of money, and pays only y. But with that money to invest, what are they supposed to do? Infrastructure is greatly improved in these countries, meaning they are much more unlocked to take part in the trade. Sure, there's money thrown at agriculture, but is the Polish industry supposed to compete for cost on machinery with German producers? And sure, Polish workers end up migrating as well, including to Brittain: who really benefits from this cheap labour just being accessible like that? Investment opportunities are bountifull in less developed countries. Bring some knowledge and a pile of money and your effect will be much bigger than a developed country where the margins would be smaller. Yet who has this pile of money ton invest, and reap the returns? Overall, money flows towards where it mostly is already. Germany pouring money into this European project isn't out of generosity, they stand to win the most, as they have the biggest pile of money, the most developed industry as it stands.

Now from an EU point of view, it's one less competitor for these boons. But a bigger effect is probably that the UK is a sizable market to sell to after all. Not that it will disappear, but it'll become harder to sell to, so like the Netherlands, for who the UK was decently important as a place to trade with, iirc it's projected to cost a percent or two in money made, which is sizable. Specific countries stand to gain though. Purely on budget, I shouldn't think that France is sad about the rebate disappearing, even if it could be rediscussed. With the economic center of London potentially disappearing behind borders, there's another English speaking country nearby, still within the EU. I am not saying Dublin is the new London, but there are opportunities there. Otherwise, there's always Frankfurt. Overall though, it's a big market disappearing, and that'll sting. The main difference is that the effect is spread out on that side. In nearly all cases I spoke about there were two sides that benefitted, though I suspect the rich countries couldn't complain. The further the UK wants to throw up the barriers to Europe, the further they are cutting into their own benefits as well.

Which means it's still a question how thorough this is going to be. Whatever we hear now really is already part of the negotiations, the game that's played there. Too early to tell imo.
Last edited by mykonian on Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
Surrender, imagine and of course wear something nice.
User avatar
Davsto
Davsto
He/Him
Farce of Habit
User avatar
User avatar
Davsto
He/Him
Farce of Habit
Farce of Habit
Posts: 5279
Joined: June 29, 2015
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #373 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:46 am

Post by Davsto »

jumping off a cliff without a parachute and knitting one on the way down
User avatar
mykonian
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
User avatar
User avatar
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Posts: 11963
Joined: August 27, 2008

Post Post #374 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:58 am

Post by mykonian »

eh, not quite that bad. There's something to be said for ruling ones own country. Depends a bit how good you think the deal you got was.
Surrender, imagine and of course wear something nice.
Post Reply

Return to “General Discussion”