UK Pol - #independenceday

[Porochaz]

before an independent Scotland had a few things going for it, namely EU and oil. Since we don't/wouldn't have either it would be insanity to leave.

Mind explaining this one to me? I don't think I quite understand.

Indyref1's main argument for independence was "Scotland has oil". Soon after the referendum the oil industry in Scotland absolutely collapsed. Depending where you read, people within the EU have stated Scotland would not be in a financial state to join the EU, but what is known is that if we were to rejoin the EU after independence we would be placed at the back of the queue (which is fair) so it could be years before we rejoin. Spain has already stated they would block fasttracking us.

[Porochaz]

I don't live in Aberdeen, I live in the sticks, it's just easier to say Aberdeen here lol. I do work there though!

Living in the 'shire as well there would be a lib dem candidate, but considering you are entering Alex Salmond/other SNP stronghold territory, you might struggle.

[zoraster]

I cannot speak to this list's accuracy but I provide it merely as-is: http://e.infogr.am/stop_the_tories-0

[Porochaz]

I look forward to the stop the SNP list...

[Max]

Given that the lib Dems have ruled out coalition with labour, it means voting lib dem is only worthwhile in Tory/Lib Dem marginals. Odd. (Assuming opposition to the tories).

[zoraster]

Push comes to shove, the chance of them rejecting coalition with Labour is basically zero. It's just something they say.

[mykonian]

before an independent Scotland had a few things going for it, namely EU and oil. Since we don't/wouldn't have either it would be insanity to leave.

Mind explaining this one to me? I don't think I quite understand.

Indyref1's main argument for independence was "Scotland has oil". Soon after the referendum the oil industry in Scotland absolutely collapsed. Depending where you read, people within the EU have stated Scotland would not be in a financial state to join the EU, but what is known is that if we were to rejoin the EU after independence we would be placed at the back of the queue (which is fair) so it could be years before we rejoin. Spain has already stated they would block fasttracking us.

Ah, gotcha. I found the news that you refer to, where profits got decimated, taxes on those profits as a results, because of the recent lower oil prices. Still, the moment Scotland went independent, it'd have a reasonable claim on quite a few of the oil and gas fields in the North Sea, given that was devided amongst the nations by their coast line. It's just that oil is fickle. I don't know how long it'd take for your claims to get ratified, I'd be more worried about that than the shifting oil price.

As for rejoining the EU, you must be satisfying most of the requirements already, there's no period where you have to implement EU laws and regulations, etc. Even if you weren't to get preference treatment because of some geopolitics between Europe and the UK, it shouldn't be too lengthy a process.

But you are right, it'll always be a time of insecurity, just as with brexit now. Just in that case, Scotland would have to do it on it's own, and Scotland is quite small.

[ChannelDelibird]

Literally the only acceptable vote is 'whichever party is likeliest to keep the Tories or UKIP out of this constituency'. Remainers and progressives MUST hold their noses and do this. There has to be broad opposition to May and hard Brexit that gets other parties working together. I don't want to vote for this Labour party but you bet your arse I will do as the main rivals to the Tory incumbent here.

[Porochaz]

It's more difficult than that. For Scotland at least. If we don't want another indyref then we have to consider that first before the tories. We're already leaving the EU, I don't particularly want to risk leaving you guys as well. (also SNP votes in the general election really don't help keep the Tories out)

[Max]

You're right in so far as Scotland has never made a difference in a general election. But I think in terms of another IndyRef, this election makes it a done deal. Without this GE May can argue that national unity is more important and so it would have to come in the 2020s. Whereas her argument against a Scottish referendum is shot, because she's holding an early election (despite "now not being the time". The SNP therefore have a case for an IndyRef even if they lose some seats.

The SNP would need to absolutely collapse this election for Sturgeon to not be pushing forward.

We discussed this at UK meet. (I think IndyRef2 will end with the same result barring some kind of crisis)

It's my constituencies emergency party meeting tonight. We're a swing seat, we're hoping the lovely man who stood last time will be able to do it all again. My current MP is a vile piece of work and we're hoping to overturn a 100 vote majority, we have word there won't be greens standing this time who got a couple of hundred votes in 2015.

[zoraster]

Poro, Is your constituency likely to elect a Tory though? If not, you can make whatever decision you think best.

[mykonian]

We discussed this at UK meet. (I think IndyRef2 will end with the same result barring some kind of crisis)

I heard later that I missed you 3 talking about this. Wouldve been wonderful to hear your thoughts about it in a real conversation.

[Porochaz]

Poro, Is your constituency likely to elect a Tory though? If not, you can make whatever decision you think best.

They were 3rd, about 1900 votes behind the incumbent Labour and the SNP (who won it). In all honesty I don't see any SNP seats being turned. The exhaustion over independence might make it more marginal for the SNP, but considering they were 8,000 votes ahead of Labour with 20,000, I don't see that big a turn-around. My posting is coming from frustration more than anything. I feel like I am being put up for ransom. My vote probably ultimately means very little. But for me it feels like a choice between Hard Brexit/Indyref2/Using my ballot to wipe my arse. As I said before as ineffectual as they are Labour will keep getting my vote. I don't feel comfortable voting elsewhere.

[Davsto]

Spoilt ballot if you honestly feel like you can't choose. Not a vote as such but still is counted and shows unhappiness with the state of things. It'd be better if you voted for someone but it's preferable to not turning up at all

[Max]

Interesting feedback from today. Nearby Blackburn is being treated as an "important seat", currently held on a 4,000 vote margin. Campaigning in such seats implies that Labour thinks it has to fight anything with a margin smaller than that. (N.B.: Blackburn has a history of BNP voting, so maybe there's fear the post-Brexit push might influence things.)

Currently there's a big question mark over whether last elections local candidate will stand again this time (any candidate from 2015 is allowed to stand if they so wish). He's a super great guy, though he is a "centrist" candidate.

Side note: Greater Manchester was already campaigning for the new Manchester Mayor position, and the by-election in Gorton. (Edit: so while we don't know our prospective parliamentary candidate we have been getting the vote out for Andy)

[Randomnamechange]

Interesting feedback from today. Nearby Blackburn is being treated as an "important seat", currently held on a 4,000 vote margin. Campaigning in such seats implies that Labour thinks it has to fight anything with a margin smaller than that. (N.B.: Blackburn has a history of BNP voting, so maybe there's fear the post-Brexit push might influence things.)

do labour have the seat currently?
also lol BNP

criminal investigation into voter fraud by the Tories in Farage's seat in the last election could be a spanner in the works though

[Randomnamechange]

oh dear

[zoraster]

?

[Drench]

is this about abbott

[Not_Mafia]

It's about strong and stable leadership

[Max]

This has been a very dull election. I sort of wish we had a sex scandal.

[AniX]

There is still time for one of the Royals to die.

[AniX]

I took Bella's quiz and I'm, unsurprisingly, pretty deep Sinn Féin.

[Max]

A royal dying would probably be good for the conservatives, unfortunately. But Theresa May weeing on somebody or something would really liven up the campaign.

But it's local elections today. And I need to go and vote.

[Mac]

I don't think I've had a single leaflet through my door for the council elections. Although one of the candidates was kicked from the SNP party for refusing to bow to their demands about the community I think so he'll probably get my vote.