MLB Baseball 2018

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Happy Almost Baseball, everyone!

[Harambey180]

It's gonna start again? Niceee. I'll just stay up-to-date on the highlights of the season, not really into baseball myself.

[TwoInAMillion]

This is really a top heavy year. World Series champ will almost definately be Houston, New York, or Los Angeles.

[Thestatusquo]

This is really a top heavy year. World Series champ will almost definately be Houston, New York, or Los Angeles.

lol.

[TwoInAMillion]

You disagree?

[Thestatusquo]

I agree that the year is top heavy, and I agree that the three teams you brought up are among the favorites.

But they once did the math and determined that a series would have to be over 1000 games long to determine with certainty who the best team is.

Baseball primarily is a game of small sample size and fluke occurrence. Is Houston the best team in the league? Almost certainly. Does the "best" team in the league win the world series? Almost never.

[TwoInAMillion]

I'm not saying the best team will win, that's why I included NEw York and LA.

There's always a chance that a team like Atlanta or Florida will win, but it's not very likely.

[Thestatusquo]

I think there are maybe 10 teams who could credibly win.

[TwoInAMillion]

I would say 80% first tier WS champion, 15% second tier, 5% everyone else.
1st tier
Houston
New York
LA

Second Tier
Boston
Cleveland
Arizona
Milwaukee
Washington
LA Angels

Third Tier
Everyone else(barring trade deadline moves)

[Thestatusquo]

Did you forget that Chicago exists or what?

[TwoInAMillion]

Did you forget that Chicago exists or what?

Sorry my bad, would put them in between 1st and 2nd tier.

[Nero Cain]

no Min love?

[TwoInAMillion]

I'm not sure they are quite 2nd tier yet.

[TwoInAMillion]

Here is my hall of fame prediction list for active players:
75% or greater Hall of Fame(lock or near lock)
Albert Pujols
Adrian Beltre
Miguel Cabrera
Robinson Cano
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Grienke
Ichiro Suzuki
Mike Trout
Justin Verlander

25-75% chance of Hall of Fame(younger players that might not make it if their careers ended today or older players with suspect resumes):
Max Sherzer
Bryce Harper
Kris Bryant
Jose Altuve
Felix Hernandez
Joey Votto
Chase Utley
CC Sabathia
Giancarlo Stanton
Ian Kinsler
Cole Hamels
Joe Mauer
Evan Longoria
Aaron Judge
Stephen Strasburg
Shohei Ohtani

<25% chance of hall of fame(slight chance but probably won't make it, or younger players that have work to do)
Adrian Gonzalez
Troy Tulowitzki
Dustin Pedroria
David Wright
Andrew McCutchen
Curtis Granderson
Buster Posey

Josh Donaldson
Ryan Zimmerman
Paul Goldschmidt
Madison Bumgardner
Johnny Cueto
Dallas Kueschal
Corey Kluber
Carlos Correa
Gary Sanchez

[pickemgenius]

thats a very uh.... interesting random assortment of players there.

[TwoInAMillion]

Not at all random, it is derived from the active WAR leaders.

[TwoInAMillion]

I wonder if Ohtani finishes his career with 150 wins and 100 HR if that will be enough to get him into the HOF.

[T-Bone]

Let him get #1 first before we put him in the hall.

Also, if Ohtani wants to hit all the time, why not sign in the NL? If nothing else he's guaranteed to bat every start.

[Aronis]

I would say 80% first tier WS champion, 15% second tier, 5% everyone else.
1st tier
Houston
New York
LA

Second Tier
Boston
Cleveland
Arizona
Milwaukee
Washington
LA Angels

Third Tier
Everyone else(barring trade deadline moves)

What about the Cubs? They should w/o a doubt be on this list. They're better than the Angels, Brewers, and DBacks.
I also think Minnesota, St. Louis, and Colorado shouldn't necessarily be counted out either.

[Aronis]

Here is my hall of fame prediction list for active players:
75% or greater Hall of Fame(lock or near lock)
Albert Pujols
Adrian Beltre
Miguel Cabrera
Robinson Cano
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Grienke
Ichiro Suzuki
Mike Trout
Justin Verlander

25-75% chance of Hall of Fame(younger players that might not make it if their careers ended today or older players with suspect resumes):
Max Sherzer
Bryce Harper
Kris Bryant
Jose Altuve
Felix Hernandez
Joey Votto
Chase Utley
CC Sabathia
Giancarlo Stanton
Ian Kinsler
Cole Hamels
Joe Mauer
Evan Longoria
Aaron Judge
Stephen Strasburg
Shohei Ohtani

<25% chance of hall of fame(slight chance but probably won't make it, or younger players that have work to do)
Adrian Gonzalez
Troy Tulowitzki
Dustin Pedroria
David Wright
Andrew McCutchen
Curtis Granderson
Buster Posey

Josh Donaldson
Ryan Zimmerman
Paul Goldschmidt
Madison Bumgardner
Johnny Cueto
Dallas Kueschal
Corey Kluber
Carlos Correa
Gary Sanchez

I'm not really convinced Cano, Verlander, and Greinke are locks. Have they been that great?
Ohtani has a better chance than Correa????? what????? that makes no sense. Correa's younger iirc and shown he can play at a high level, Ohtani's in his first year coming off an abysmal spring training. Not to mention Bumgarner has carried the Giants on his back to the WS multiple times or Goldschmidt being a consistently great first baseman. This list could use a lot of work

[Aronis]

Let him get #1 first before we put him in the hall.

Also, if Ohtani wants to hit all the time, why not sign in the NL? If nothing else he's guaranteed to bat every start.

Because he can't field and only wants to play DH in addition to pitching

[TwoInAMillion]

If Edgar Martinez is just on the fringe being a DH only then surely Ohtani can get in pitching and hitting.

[Aronis]

That's assuming he does both of those at a high quality for the next 10+ years. His spring training didn't go that well. He started today and did alright, nothing special though.
Compare that to Madison bumgarner who's played 7 years w/ a solid 3 ERA. Not to mention carrying the SF Giants to a WS ring in 2014 w/ one of the greatest pitching performances in that series that the world has ever seen.
Then guys like Gary Sanchez and Carlos Correa have just as much potential as ohtani and have actually produced good numbers over the past two years.
And then like Nolan Arenado and Chris Sale just might as well not exist according to your list.
Ohtani (and some others) are in the wrong spot

[brassherald]

So, a week in, the Red Sox, Astros, Twins, Mets, Pirates and D-Backs are the class of the league. Just like we all predicted!

[Mulch]

Go braves

Also acuna is 50%+ HoF