Secret Hitler (Game Over)
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Sure, I have other reads. I don't really find it beneficial to share them yet, because (a) that strengthens them, and (b) it removes information from the votes to know how other people are going to vote.In post 224, Mitillos wrote:@SS: You said that one should vote nein if they have any bad feelings. All you've given us on that front are a libread on BuJ and a claim that your slot is liberal because of the way they replaced out. How about something more to go on? Any other reads, thus far?-
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Vijarada's second post looked a hell of a lot like distancing and none of the rest of his posting has been impressive.In post 274, Mitillos wrote:Anyway, @S_S: You may well be positioned between two fascists, so it's important to get reads on you immediately. You said you have other reads. Any of them that you want to share and explain?
N_M and Reck are townreads because they could have burned liberals and lied about it. But is a townread for neining that vote and calling what I already suspected on inspir.
Also unfortunately I'm V/LA for the weekend.-
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This doesn't happen.In post 367, BuJaber wrote:the dead person's alignment would be revealed
And my math: there are two unplayed cards and three missing liberal policies. Nobody disagreed about what two cards the chancellor had, so at least one liberal, and very like two, must have been burned by the president.
Now, it could have been Reck or Not_Mafia. But that would imply both unlikely and unfortunate card distributions, and if we try to open that can of worms we're extremely unlikely to win. (And we're from the beginning, given how terrible the cards would have been.) So if we assume that neither NM nor Reck burned a liberal... then either the last two cards were liberal or two of the last three presidents burned a liberal.-
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Voting unpredictably is also a strong liberal tool, what's your point?In post 410, BuJaber wrote:Can people say if they will vote yes for nsg, NM, or neither please?
Just want it on record so people can't change their mind without us noticing. Votes are a strong fascist tool.
That said, I won't be doing that. I'm not voting ja on you.-
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Oh no. Maybe your activity will be worse
In other news I continue to be the only person to look at things from a neutral point of view (and to recognize that I don't deserve to be trusted). The proper exclusion block is every president who passed a fascist policy and every person who was investigated as fascist: {BuJaber, inspi, S_S, Mitillos, mallow}.-
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Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.In post 465, BuJaber wrote:let mitilos be president.-
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So? A lot of things could be true. It doesn't mean that it benefits town to argue over them.In post 474, 2 718281828459 wrote:
Except that you could be lying and Mitillos could actually be liberal.In post 473, Something_Smart wrote:
Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.In post 465, BuJaber wrote:let mitilos be president.-
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Yet you voted ja on northsidegal as president...In post 485, BuJaber wrote:Lol why on earth would we ever accept Nico? They haven't been on any elections. It's literally roullette at that point.-
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Actually.
That could be relevant.
If Mitillos is Hitler, then from his perspective, there would have been, in his mind, a chance I was a fascist playing the long game. In that case, it would have benefited us both to throw ME under the bus and get HIM trusted. He might have thought that possibility remote, but it's worth pointing out that, at least initially, he may not have known my alignment.-
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I neined because the government consisting of the same two people was ja'd by every single player (and drew two liberals so that it showed nothing about either of them), and because IF the votes were close (the only situation where my vote actually matters), I would have preferred it not go through so we could talk about it.-
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Yes, the assumption is that several presidents threw liberal policies. If you think I'm probably fascist, it should be because you think I threw a liberal policy (and the converse should be true as well; in a world where I am fascist, I probably did discard a liberal).
And I totally think Mitillos could be Hitler (and I've totally brought that up before).-
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Also, I'd like to point out, to everyone outside of BuJaber/Mitillos/inspir: Both BuJaber and Mitillos are looking for every opportunity to call everything I do scummy (in this case he even went so far as to say that I confessed rather than asking himself why I would do that AS EITHER ALIGNMENT). They have been wholly focused on their own perspective and trying to push the idea that the way they see the game is the way that everyone should be seeing the game.
I have been trying to provide information that will be helpful even if I am not trusted, knowing that I have good reason not to be trusted. I have no interest in pointing out how scummy Mitillos is-- and I don't even think his play is that scum indicative (it seems like he'd play very similar as either alignment)-- and if you did trust me over him based just on rhetoric like that, I'd be questioning your judgement anyway.
I don't object to BuJaber's plan, so long as he has absolutely no say on who within that group is chosen. For self-centered reasons (I know I'm not Hitler), I would LIKE it to be me, and also for objective reasons there is a compelling case to be made as to why I'm not Hitler. But there's no point focusing on the former; if you agree with my objective reasoning (that I wouldn't have played how I did as president), good. If not, do what you like, and we'll hope it works out.-
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It's a given that a president threw away a liberal. Very likely two did. From your perspective, it should be extremely likely that, if I am fascist, I threw away a liberal.In post 546, BuJaber wrote:The scumslip is simple you were using it as a way to question why I would ever think you're hitler. But I have no way of knowing for sure that you threw away a liberal as opposed to NM/mallow/reck so I could never think of that question for you specifically, but knowing that you threw it you could think of it for yourself.
You said you trust Reck, N_M drawing three liberals is astronomically unlikely, so it just leaves me and mallow anyway.
Well, yes. But I don't want you to then say, "I think we should make someone in Bu/inspi/S_S/Mitillos chancellor, therefore let's make Mitillos chancellor." I want to make sure they don't listen to that, because otherwise a very obvious scum motivation for the plan emerges. (if Mitillos is Hitler, that's probably your motivation for suggesting it anyway.)In post 547, BuJaber wrote:
Can you explain this part? How would I have any say in it anyway. It's up to the president and then the votes.In post 545, Something_Smart wrote:so long as he has absolutely no say on who within that group is chosen.-
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There was little to no resistance to that government, I certainly didn't expect it to be defeated that soundly.In post 573, xRECKONERx wrote:
explainIn post 571, Something_Smart wrote:Hey, guess who's basically confirmed not Hitler.
If I'm Hitler it would mean at least two, and more likely three, fascists neined because they expected 4/6 liberals to nein it. I don't know where that expectation would come from, especially if a liberal nominated it. (And if a fascist nominated Hitler, then why in the hell would he nein it?)
(Furthermore, there's confirmed one fascist in BuJaber/inspi and both could have made a perfectly reasonable justification for jaing-- inspi because he clearly trusts me over Mitillos, and Bu because he was the one who suggested this.)
(Double furthermore, Hitler is supposed to play the long game. While getting into a 1v1 as Hitler is not unheard of, me calling Mitillos fascist should be another data point in favor of "S_S is not Hitler".)-
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If I understand correctly it was trying to bait out jas from fascists.
But he failed to bait anyone who's actually participating in the game (and I don't think Nico's vote is meaningful as she'd probably ja whatever as liberal), so whatever it is, his posterior probability (don't laugh) of me being Hitler must be lower than his prior probability was.-
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Sure, that's a totally valid play and I've done it myself.In post 587, 2 718281828459 wrote:And I have played enough secret hitler to know that hitler can certainly accuse a fasc and try to gain trust by appearing to be on the "liberal side" of a FvF argument. Not saying that it necessarilyishappening, but it definitelycan.
But do you think Mitillos is arguing like he wants to lose? Clearly he's calculating enough to know that, in that situation, he WANTS to look suspicious.-
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Huh, I saw it very differently. Several people expressed support for BuJaber's idea, and nobody (except Mitillos) was really overtly against me being chancellor.In post 587, 2 718281828459 wrote:Well, the consensus was that I would be neined
What made you think this? (Clearly you were right, but it was a result I didn't expect.)-
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So the odds of you being town (already objective low in my opinion) just were made 5 times lower. In a game of probabilities like this, that ought to round to zero.In post 607, Mitillos wrote:@S_S: Presumably you're saying I should have zero credibility because it is unreasonable for 6F3L to yield 3F. Even though the probability of this is about 23.08%. That's some really valid reasoning there.
I'm not asking for you to have discussions and reasons. I'm asking for you to have literally zero say in who you shoot. Are you saying that if Reck and Not_Mafia and Klick decided they wanted you to shoot me, you'd trust your own opinion (even knowing that I am fascist) over theirs?Anyway, I already said ages ago that I wouldn't be deciding the execution myself if I happened to get one (I believe this was when 2.718 joined the game and was discussing executions), and that I'd want to see discussion and reasons as to whom I should shoot.-
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I mean my opinion of how an observer with no information should see the game. So while it is subjective, in some sense it is objective as well. (My subjective opinion, of course, is that there is a 0% chance you are town.)In post 611, Mitillos wrote:Your opinion is automatically subjective, given that it is an opinion.
I mean, if we did calculate this probabilitistically, the objective chance you are fascist is a little over 50% to account for the case that I 1v1 you when we are both fascist, which already cuts your probability in half. Not to mention the factors can't be measured exactly, like, you know, the fact that my government was voted down while yours was voted in.-
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That's because discussion in Secret Hitler is tepid at best and that combined with the high proportion of scum makes reads awful in general.In post 622, Klick wrote:Every game of Secret Hitler I’ve seen revolved way too much around attempted setup breaking and not enough around reads.
If you have one or two pet reads based on personal experience with a player, then that's probably +EV for town, but otherwise playing on reads over mechanics is likely to be -EV.
This is a case in point; you've never played with me (aside from One Night Werewolf which hardly counts), and I'm hard to read in regular mafia, let alone here where I'm mostly arguing mechanics.
This is true if you assume that forming reads is good for town. I'm not so sure that it is. Especially since, in the case of someone like me, it's impossible to remove mechanics from my view of the game, so any pure reads from me would either be informed by mechanics and so not pure reads, or utter garbage.I think there’s scum motivation in trying to direct gameplay solely via what’s statistically likely, because it limits opportunities to obtain reads.
And more than half the players in this game have something to their POV that they can't get rid of. So be warned. If you're looking for what appears to be real reads, you're gonna get fake ones a lot more easily.-
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