Prisoner's Dilemma --- Congratulations to Sudo_Nym and Tamuz

[Mokina]

/in

[Mokina]

Also... a brief question. Can you defect against multiple people? Think this over carefully.

[Mokina]

I'm setting my policy beforehand.

I will cooperate without fail until someone defects against me (see Tit-for-Tat) whereupon I will defect against them for one turn. If necessary I will use my Top Dog ability to screw you over (assuming multiple defections).

This is a

nice

strategy (you won't be defected against by default), but it is also

retaliatory

(not blindly optomistic) and

forgiving

(tries to avoid a "death spiral" of endless defection). Also, because I've just told you how it works, it is

predictable

. These are the four elements of a utilitarian (good for everyone) Prisoner's Dilemna strategy.

[Mokina]

I think things are going to be fairly similar to 2-player iterated. Percentages refer to the chance of a particular outcome, assuming everyone acts randomly:

[col]

Mokina Cooperates

[col]

...Defects vs. #1

[col]

...Defects vs. #2

[col]

...Defects vs. #3

[col]

...Defects vs. #4

All Cooperate w/Me (50%)

[col]+2[col]+0[col]+0[col]+0[col]+0

#1 Defects vs. Me (5%)

[col]-3[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1

#2 Defects...(5%)

[col]-3[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1

#3 Defects...(5%)

[col]-3[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1

#4 Defects...(5%)

[col]-3[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1[col]-1

And so on up until #10.

The fact that anyone can target you would convince some players to defect all the time, but the reality is that

they

have 10 other players to choose from. As such, the pure-luck chances that you'll be defected against are exactly the same as in normal 2-player Dilemna.

Xdaamno, correct me if the chart is wrong.


(EDITED, adding percentages to the chart)

[Mokina]

Much simpler chart:

[col]

Mokina Cooperates

[col]

Mokina Defects v. Someone

All Cooperate w/Me (50%)

[col]+2[col]+0

Someone Defects v. Me (50%)

[col]-3[col]-1

Average loss when cooperating: -1.0
Average loss when defecting: -1.0

EDIT: Okay, so the av-losses are equal. But my policy stands... it makes two rounds of defection against me (-1 for you) a worse option than two rounds of cooperation (+4 for you). If the numbers change, so will my strategy.

[Mokina]

I'm talking too much.

For rule clarification, I'd like to point out

If you defect, the damage done to you if you are defected against is -1, regardless of who you defected against. You can defect against player A, an if B defects against you, you'll still only take -1 damage

Oh. I'm going to edit the chart to reflect that; hope it's okay...

[Mokina]

I was mostly just concerned about your policy on edits.

[Mokina]

Now, chances are, someone's gonna be nasty, and defect against the person who come's across most "Co-op"y.

Yeah, but their own score is going to be worse off after two rounds compared to if they'd cooperated (by -5, actually, assuming eye-for-an-eye retaliation). In other words, that nasty person is also a short-sighted one.

[Mokina]

I'm defecting against either Tamuz or Korran this time (random).

[Mokina]

We should all cooperate, all of us naming (random name) as our target. Then, next round, we all name someone else. The cycle should continue like this, and we won't be able to lose.

Not quite. Keep in mind that cooperation is going to eventually become +0 or even negative as the game gets harsher.

[Mokina]

By the way, of the people who cooperated last round, who wants to help hammer the first-round defectors? Send me a PM if you don't want to publicize your intents.

[Mokina]

[col]

You Cooperate

[col]

You Defect v. Someone

All Cooperate w/You (50%)

[col]+1[col]+0

Someone Defects v. You (50%)

[col]-2[col]-1

Net loss under the current crime? Still 1...

[Mokina]

Of course, as you have seen... making a big deal about the fact that you're cooperating next time is a bad idea.

People need to trust each other a little more...

[Mokina]

Absolutely. But right now, I'm a bit worried about the people who think otherwise.

[Mokina]

...defecting cannot gain me anything.

Well... it'll lose you less in certain circumstances.

[Mokina]

Cooperating can't win and end the game Mokina.

I feel your strategy and push towards a full game of cooperation is both detrimental and not the best strategy, that is why I targetted you.

By the way, you are a hypocrite now, on one side you are pushing for everyone to cooperate because it is "better" on the other you want someone to not cooperate, and to sacrifice their potential game in order to get revenge. I can understand yer personal vendetta, but to be so hypocritical in expanding its call.

Tamuzi clicks his tongue

I'm not pushing for full cooperation... no, in fact I've brought up immediate counter-defection as a preventative measure.

Also... your accusation of hypocrisy seems a little contrived and incoherent. Please expand your argument here... I'm not quite sure I know who you're referring to.

[Mokina]

No comment.

[Mokina]

Gain 1 HP if you Co-Operate, and are not defected against
Gain 0 HP if you Defect, and are not defected against
Lose 2 HP if you Defect, and are defected against
Lose 3 HP if you Co-Operate, and are defected against

The charges will start to get a little harsher from now on.

*Mokina contacts Amnesty International*

[Mokina]

"Yeah... uh... the guards here are corrupt and we're being held with no evidence against us. They've been interrogating us every day and some of the others are starting to falsely confess against each other. They only gave me +1HP today and I deserved +2! This is a nightmare... get me out of here!"

[Mokina]

I'm against the merge.

[Mokina]

Echo what Sudo_Nym said... plus, your strategy isn't forgiving, which means death spiral. You will die quickly under such a harsh policy; sad fact.

[Mokina]

Yeah... how did I get such a low score?

[Mokina]

Yagami... how tiresome...

[Mokina]

Dammit. I'm at three health. Better start working on that.

[Mokina]

At this rate, Khelvaster's going to win...

[Mokina]

Random and one-shot. Now maybe I'm a little biased because I ended up with it, but I'd say keep it next time.

[Mokina]

Hey... I claimed having it earlier in the thread, and you attacked me when I was desperate. Shoulda seen it coming.

[Mokina]

/me sends in defect on mokina for Jdodge

I'm dead no matter what I choose.

(So don't even talk about "still having a chance"...)