2016 Presidential Nomination Game

[zoraster]

It's pretty easy! For each state and major candidate I'll give an over/under number. If you guess correctly, you get a point. If you don't, you don't get a point. Your entry is your first guess, and here we go (next post).

Points will be adjusted based on how many candidates remain and how late we're in the process with a competitive race.

[zoraster]

New Hampshire

Democratic Nomination

(each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56
Clinton: 43

Republican Nomination

(each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32
Rubio: 18
Kasich: 15
Cruz: 12
Christie: 9
Bush: 7

[zoraster]

Sanders: Over
Clinton: Under

Trump: Under
Rubio: Under
Kasich: Over
Cruz: Under
Christie: Under
Bush: Over

[BROseidon]

Sanders: Over
Clinton: Under

I'm thinking it'll be a bit worse than that, but not much.

Trump: Over
Rubio: Under
Kasich: Under
Cruz: Over
Christie: Under
Bush: Over.

[D3f3nd3r]

Sanders: Over
Clinton: Under

Trump: Under
Rubio: Under
Kasich: Over
Cruz: Over
Christie: Over
Bush: Under

[xRECKONERx]

New Hampshire

Democratic Nomination

(each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56
Clinton: 43

Republican Nomination

(each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32
Rubio: 18
Kasich: 15
Cruz: 12
Christie: 9
Bush: 7

Sanders Over
Clinton Under
Trump Under
Rubio Under
Kasich Over
Cruz Over
Christie Over
Bush Over

[PrivateI]

Democratic Nomination (each worth 2 points)
Sanders: Over
Clinton: Under

Republican Nomination (each worth 1 point)
Trump: Over
Rubio: Under
Kasich: Under
Cruz: Over
Christie: Over
Bush: Under

[PrivateI]

No Carson/Fiorina?

[zoraster]

yes, no carson or fiorina. their polling is low enough (3-5 for fiorina, 1-3 for carson) it didn't seem worth it for over/under.

[Not_Mafia]

Sanders Over
Clinton Under

Trump Under
Rubio Under
Kasich Over
Cruz Over
Christie Over
Bush Under

[Aronis]

New Hampshire

Democratic Nomination

(each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56

OVER!

Clinton: 43

UNDER!

Republican Nomination

(each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32

OVER!

Rubio: 18

UNDER!

Kasich: 15

UNDER!

Cruz: 12

OVER!

Christie: 9

UNDER!

Bush: 7 -I rlly hope its under, but my gut says

OVER!

[Drench]

under
over

under
under
under
over
under
over

[RedCoyote]

It's pretty easy! For each state and major candidate I'll give an over/under number. If you guess correctly, you get a point. If you don't, you don't get a point. Your entry is your first guess, and here we go (next post).

Points will be adjusted based on how many candidates remain and how late we're in the process with a competitive race.

1) Do you plan on posting all the numbers the day of the caucus/primary?
2) What are you going to do for SEC/Super Tuesday?
3) Out of curiosity, where do you get your numbers from? Those don't correspond with RCP.

[zoraster]

1. Day or next day probably
2. I'll probably do it through super tuesday. If things are still competitive after that, I'll keep doing it, perhaps with extra points.
3. I took RCP polling and then adjusted it a bit based on what I thought would get people to be split.

[RedCoyote]

New Hampshire

Democratic Nomination (each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56 - Over (58)
Clinton: 43 - Under (41)

Republican Nomination (each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32 - Under (28)
Rubio: 18 - Under (15)
Kasich: 15 - Under (14)
Cruz: 12 - Over (13)
Christie: 9 - Under (7)
Bush: 7 - Over (9)

Carson: 5
Carly: 5
Gilmore: 2

[zoraster]

new hampshire guesses close at 7pm EST.

[RedCoyote]

After dicking around on Twitter, I'm going to change up my Kasich pick to

Over

. I forgot about the semi-openness of the primary, and old boy is on a major upswing based on what I'm hearing.

Democratic Nomination (each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56 - Over (58)
Clinton: 43 - Under (41)

Republican Nomination (each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32 - Under (28)
Rubio: 18 - Under (15)
Kasich: 15 - Over (16)
Cruz: 12 - Over (13)
Christie: 9 - Under (7)
Bush: 7 - Over (9)

Carly: 5
Carson: 3
Gilmore: 2

[xRECKONERx]

if current results hold:
Democratic Nomination (each worth 2 points)
Sanders: 56 / 60.5 (OVER)
Clinton: 43 / 38.3 (UNDER)

Republican Nomination (each worth 1 point)
Trump: 32 / 35.6 (UNDER)
Rubio: 18 / 10.7 (UNDER)
Kasich: 15 / 15.7 (OVER)
Cruz: 12 / 11.6 (UNDER)
Christie: 9 / 7.5 (UNDER)
Bush: 7 / 11.1 (OVER)

[zoraster]

thanks, reck. I'll post our scores in a bit.

[zoraster]

wait, why didyou say trump's was under?

[RedCoyote]

SC is going to be a knife fight, I tell you what. Both sides.

GOP has three potential outcomes (only two are likely). It's either all aboard the Trump Train or we're setting the Cruz Control. I almost want to see Rubio recover though because if he were to somehow win, forget about it. Total chaos.

I don't care what anyone says about any firewall, Hillary is on such a downward trend that I laid some money down on the Bern. There hasn't been a poll in SC since before the Iowa caucuses, let alone NH. The spread in NH goes from Sanders +14 to a result of Sanders +22? What good news is going to happen for Hillary in the next two weeks? Momentum is totally working against her. She's just bleeding support and everyone loves an underdog story. The media are salivating at the thought of a "Sanders drawing comparisons to Obama" narrative. I'm absolutely loving this.

[xRECKONERx]

Mistaken on Trump

still only 85.8% reporting? what?

[RedCoyote]

Google has it at 98% with slightly different ratios. I don't think it matters much in the context of changing any of the results you posted though, Reck (plus or minus a couple tenths of a percent).

[zoraster]

1 Zoraster 9
2 BROseidon 8
2 Aronis 8
2 RedCoyote 8
5 xRECKONERx 7
6 D3f3nd3r 6
6 PrivateI 6
6 Not_Mafia 6
9 Drench 3

[zoraster]

the above isn't correct i think. i think my formula is wrong. hang on.